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000
FXUS64 KHUN 050500
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL
PASS SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO HSV WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS TO
WARRANT VCSH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PCPN...LGT/VRBL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 05/09-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED -- WITH SCT AC BENEATH BKN/OVC CS. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THICKEN/LOWER TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ARND 5-10 KTS FROM THE WSW. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z...AS A STRONGER
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT THRU AT
LEAST END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD -- AND POSSIBLE BEYOND. SFC WINDS
TOMORROW EVENING WILL BACK TO THE SE AND DECREASE TO ARND 5 KTS OR
LESS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 050500
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL
PASS SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO HSV WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS TO
WARRANT VCSH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PCPN...LGT/VRBL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 05/09-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED -- WITH SCT AC BENEATH BKN/OVC CS. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THICKEN/LOWER TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ARND 5-10 KTS FROM THE WSW. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z...AS A STRONGER
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT THRU AT
LEAST END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD -- AND POSSIBLE BEYOND. SFC WINDS
TOMORROW EVENING WILL BACK TO THE SE AND DECREASE TO ARND 5 KTS OR
LESS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050500
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL
PASS SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO HSV WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS TO
WARRANT VCSH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PCPN...LGT/VRBL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 05/09-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED -- WITH SCT AC BENEATH BKN/OVC CS. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THICKEN/LOWER TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ARND 5-10 KTS FROM THE WSW. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z...AS A STRONGER
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT THRU AT
LEAST END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD -- AND POSSIBLE BEYOND. SFC WINDS
TOMORROW EVENING WILL BACK TO THE SE AND DECREASE TO ARND 5 KTS OR
LESS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050500
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL
PASS SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO HSV WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS TO
WARRANT VCSH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PCPN...LGT/VRBL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 05/09-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED -- WITH SCT AC BENEATH BKN/OVC CS. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THICKEN/LOWER TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ARND 5-10 KTS FROM THE WSW. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z...AS A STRONGER
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT THRU AT
LEAST END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD -- AND POSSIBLE BEYOND. SFC WINDS
TOMORROW EVENING WILL BACK TO THE SE AND DECREASE TO ARND 5 KTS OR
LESS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 050304
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050304
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 050304
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050304
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 042331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE KMSL AND
KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 042331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE KMSL AND
KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 042331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE KMSL AND
KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 042331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE KMSL AND
KHSV TERMINALS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041932
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  95  72  89 /  10  30  40  60
SHOALS        72  94  72  90 /  10  30  40  60
VINEMONT      70  91  70  87 /  10  30  40  60
FAYETTEVILLE  71  91  71  86 /  10  30  40  60
ALBERTVILLE   70  92  71  87 /  10  30  40  60
FORT PAYNE    68  92  70  86 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041932
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  95  72  89 /  10  30  40  60
SHOALS        72  94  72  90 /  10  30  40  60
VINEMONT      70  91  70  87 /  10  30  40  60
FAYETTEVILLE  71  91  71  86 /  10  30  40  60
ALBERTVILLE   70  92  71  87 /  10  30  40  60
FORT PAYNE    68  92  70  86 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041932
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR WED-THU. BUT FOR
NOW...A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. YESTERDAY
THERE WAS A HINT AT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL PUSHING NORTH FROM A
SEA BREEZE SORT OF FRONT BUT GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THAT
AND KEPT IT ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER SO MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED MAY END UP
DRY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INSTABILITY BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 00-06Z
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINTAINED THE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THANKS TO A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH. A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HELPS INCREASE 0-1KM SHEAR TO
15-20KT AND 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THU MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT SOME DRY AIR STARTS TO MIX IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND MID
LEVELS BY THU AFTERNOON. COUPLE THAT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG OR MORE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND A COUPLE POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY BUT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY STILL SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH...GOING TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINING TO KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI AND THEN TAPERING OFF FRI NIGHT.  THE GOOD
NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT TEMPS BOTH THU/FRI WILL ONLY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND PRESSES IN FROM THE
WEST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN MON-TUE WITH HIGHS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  95  72  89 /  10  30  40  60
SHOALS        72  94  72  90 /  10  30  40  60
VINEMONT      70  91  70  87 /  10  30  40  60
FAYETTEVILLE  71  91  71  86 /  10  30  40  60
ALBERTVILLE   70  92  71  87 /  10  30  40  60
FORT PAYNE    68  92  70  86 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041753 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER EASTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN
AL THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA
OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE JUST WEST OF THE
RIDGE INTO MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING FROM THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
AS THIS AND ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS TENNESSEE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP.

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS DUE TO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT 10 AM. ALSO...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVERGENCE MOVING
IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER EASTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN
AL THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA
OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE JUST WEST OF THE
RIDGE INTO MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING FROM THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
AS THIS AND ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS TENNESSEE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP.

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS DUE TO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT 10 AM. ALSO...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVERGENCE MOVING
IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLD
TS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHSV OR KMSL
ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER EASTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN
AL THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA
OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE JUST WEST OF THE
RIDGE INTO MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING FROM THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
AS THIS AND ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS TENNESSEE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP.

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS DUE TO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT 10 AM. ALSO...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVERGENCE MOVING
IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLD
TS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHSV OR KMSL
ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER EASTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN
AL THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA
OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE JUST WEST OF THE
RIDGE INTO MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING FROM THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
AS THIS AND ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS TENNESSEE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP.

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS DUE TO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT 10 AM. ALSO...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVERGENCE MOVING
IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLD
TS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHSV OR KMSL
ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER EASTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN
AL THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES
IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK AREA
OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE JUST WEST OF THE
RIDGE INTO MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING FROM THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
AS THIS AND ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS TENNESSEE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP.

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS DUE TO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT 10 AM. ALSO...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVERGENCE MOVING
IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLD
TS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHSV OR KMSL
ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041120 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

BROAD TROUGHING EXISTS OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WHILE A
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHWEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXISTS OVER
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN, A COLLECTION OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVES OVERSPREAD PORTIONS
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLAINS, AND MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY IN BTWN THE RIDGE AND BROAD
TROUGH.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

LINGERING CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND PASSING WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED CONVECTIVE WAVE IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE TN VALLEY AND
HAVE INCLUDED INCREASED SKY COVER FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS
LIFTING MECHANISM WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. THEY
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. OTHERWISE, WITH THE
850 MB HIGH ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS DEWPOINTS START OFF IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
THOUGH SOME MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR, STILL
EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, THE ADVERTISED SHEARED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WY TO THE
OZARKS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT
DOES SO, WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH WHICH MAY NECESSITATE
TAILORING BACK POPS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS, HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW 90S AS DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO ANY INSOLATION IN ANY
CLOUD BREAKS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. THEN, WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS--LIKELY IN CLUSTER
MODE--SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES
BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND AREA) AND DRIER LOW
LEVELS (INVERTED V PROFILE) HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURST
WIND IMPACTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HAVE RAISED POPS ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE ECMWF
IS DEPICTING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NEVERTHELESS, KEPT A SLOW DECREASE IN POPS
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. RIDGE BUILDING SHOULD THEN BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT A FEW WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY LATER IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON THE NE
FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THE TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WAVES IS RATHER
CHALLENGING BUT COULD SEE IMPACTS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BY SATURDAY AND EVEN
WARMER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLD
TS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHSV OR KMSL
ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 040752
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
252 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BROAD TROUGHING EXISTS OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WHILE A
WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHWEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXISTS OVER
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN, A COLLECTION OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVES OVERSPREAD PORTIONS
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLAINS, AND MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AS THEY MOVE ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY IN BTWN THE RIDGE AND BROAD
TROUGH.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LINGERING CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND PASSING WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED CONVECTIVE WAVE IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE TN VALLEY AND
HAVE INCLUDED INCREASED SKY COVER FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS
LIFTING MECHANISM WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. THEY
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. OTHERWISE, WITH THE
850 MB HIGH ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS DEWPOINTS START OFF IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
THOUGH SOME MOMENTUM MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR, STILL
EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE CLOSE TO 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, THE ADVERTISED SHEARED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WY TO THE
OZARKS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT
DOES SO, WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH WHICH MAY NECESSITATE
TAILORING BACK POPS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS, HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW 90S AS DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO ANY INSOLATION IN ANY
CLOUD BREAKS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. THEN, WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS--LIKELY IN CLUSTER
MODE--SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES
BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND AREA) AND DRIER LOW
LEVELS (INVERTED V PROFILE) HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURST
WIND IMPACTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HAVE RAISED POPS ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE ECMWF
IS DEPICTING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NEVERTHELESS, KEPT A SLOW DECREASE IN POPS
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. RIDGE BUILDING SHOULD THEN BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT A FEW WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY LATER IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON THE NE
FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THE TIMING OF ANY OF THESE WAVES IS RATHER
CHALLENGING BUT COULD SEE IMPACTS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BY SATURDAY AND EVEN
WARMER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT HSV/MSL THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD...WITH BKN CI EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND A
COMBINATION OF SCT HI-BASED CU AND CI EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. LGT/VRBL WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG AT EACH
TERMINAL BTWN 04/10-12Z...AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EVENING WITH CI
BCMG BKN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH A MORE PRONOUNCED WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05/00Z.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    97  72  94  73 /  10  10  30  40
SHOALS        96  72  94  73 /  10  10  30  40
VINEMONT      95  71  92  71 /  10  10  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  94  71  91  72 /  20  10  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   96  71  92  72 /  10  10  30  40
FORT PAYNE    95  70  92  70 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 040447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 958 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN THIS EVENING...AND THIS
-- ALONG WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE A NARROW
PLUME OF DRIER AIR IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AN 850-MB ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 60S. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT HSV/MSL THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD...WITH BKN CI EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND A
COMBINATION OF SCT HI-BASED CU AND CI EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. LGT/VRBL WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG AT EACH
TERMINAL BTWN 04/10-12Z...AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EVENING WITH CI
BCMG BKN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH A MORE PRONOUNCED WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05/00Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 040447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 958 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN THIS EVENING...AND THIS
-- ALONG WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE A NARROW
PLUME OF DRIER AIR IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AN 850-MB ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 60S. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT HSV/MSL THRU THE VALID
TAF PERIOD...WITH BKN CI EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND A
COMBINATION OF SCT HI-BASED CU AND CI EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. LGT/VRBL WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG AT EACH
TERMINAL BTWN 04/10-12Z...AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EVENING WITH CI
BCMG BKN ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH A MORE PRONOUNCED WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05/00Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 040258
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN THIS EVENING...AND THIS
-- ALONG WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE A NARROW
PLUME OF DRIER AIR IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AN 850-MB ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 60S. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS AROUND NW/N CNTRL AL SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN
WITH SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING TUE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 040258
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
958 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN THIS EVENING...AND THIS
-- ALONG WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE A NARROW
PLUME OF DRIER AIR IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AN 850-MB ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 60S. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS AROUND NW/N CNTRL AL SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN
WITH SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING TUE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 032323 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS AROUND NW/N CNTRL AL SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN
WITH SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING TUE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 032323 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS AROUND NW/N CNTRL AL SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN
WITH SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING TUE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 032323 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS AROUND NW/N CNTRL AL SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN
WITH SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING TUE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031955
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER 10KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER DUSK.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY...UNDER 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CREATE FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE TAF FOR THE EVENING
GIVEN BLOW-OFF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  96  72  94 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        71  96  72  94 /  10   0  10  30
VINEMONT      68  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  69  93  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   69  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    65  94  68  92 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031955
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER 10KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER DUSK.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY...UNDER 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CREATE FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE TAF FOR THE EVENING
GIVEN BLOW-OFF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  96  72  94 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        71  96  72  94 /  10   0  10  30
VINEMONT      68  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  69  93  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   69  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    65  94  68  92 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031955
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER 10KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER DUSK.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY...UNDER 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CREATE FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE TAF FOR THE EVENING
GIVEN BLOW-OFF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  96  72  94 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        71  96  72  94 /  10   0  10  30
VINEMONT      68  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  69  93  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   69  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    65  94  68  92 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031735 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM INDIANA SOUTH
INTO EXTREME WESTERN TN. SOME MODELS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN TN AND GEORGIA VIA THESE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN TN WILL LIKELY RAISE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THE
DAYS GOES ON IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.

A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AS WELL...DUE TO SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NW TN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER 10KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER DUSK.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY...UNDER 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CREATE FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE TAF FOR THE EVENING
GIVEN BLOW-OFF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031735 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM INDIANA SOUTH
INTO EXTREME WESTERN TN. SOME MODELS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN TN AND GEORGIA VIA THESE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN TN WILL LIKELY RAISE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THE
DAYS GOES ON IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.

A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AS WELL...DUE TO SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NW TN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER 10KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER DUSK.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY...UNDER 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CREATE FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE TAF FOR THE EVENING
GIVEN BLOW-OFF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031735 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM INDIANA SOUTH
INTO EXTREME WESTERN TN. SOME MODELS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN TN AND GEORGIA VIA THESE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN TN WILL LIKELY RAISE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THE
DAYS GOES ON IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.

A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AS WELL...DUE TO SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NW TN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER 10KT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER DUSK.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY...UNDER 10KT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CREATE FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE TAF FOR THE EVENING
GIVEN BLOW-OFF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031529 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM INDIANA SOUTH
INTO EXTREME WESTERN TN. SOME MODELS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN TN AND GEORGIA VIA THESE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN TN WILL LIKELY RAISE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THE
DAYS GOES ON IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.

A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AS WELL...DUE TO SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NW TN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031529 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM INDIANA SOUTH
INTO EXTREME WESTERN TN. SOME MODELS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN TN AND GEORGIA VIA THESE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN TN WILL LIKELY RAISE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THE
DAYS GOES ON IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.

A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AS WELL...DUE TO SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NW TN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031529 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1029 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM INDIANA SOUTH
INTO EXTREME WESTERN TN. SOME MODELS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN TN AND GEORGIA VIA THESE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS INTO WESTERN TN WILL LIKELY RAISE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS THE
DAYS GOES ON IN NW AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT.

A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AS WELL...DUE TO SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NW TN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 031119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VSBYS ABV 6SM AND LIGHT NWLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030819
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  70  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      94  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  94  68  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   93  68  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    94  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030819
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  70  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      94  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  94  68  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   93  68  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    94  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030819
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  70  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      94  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  94  68  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   93  68  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    94  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030819
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GENERALLY QUIET AND HOT AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING "WINTER LIKE"
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH DUAL BROAD TROUGHS ON EITHER COAST, WILL
OCCUR BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND PREVAILING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE TN
VALLEY HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ABOUT A 25-30
DEGREE SWING IN TEMPS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
MORNING. AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, BY TUESDAY, HUMID AND
HOT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES RATHER UNIQUE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH A SHEARED TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SHEARED TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE S PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MO/KS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS. IT IS CHALLENGING TO ASCERTAIN THE SENSIBLE
IMPACTS OVER THE TN VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER S TN, FROM UPSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM N TO
S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THEN, WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER QUEBEC MOVING EAST ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW FOUNDLAND, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS,
AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK DEVELOPS OVER MO RIVER
VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE LLJ SUFFICIENTLY TO ADVECT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE,
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TRANSLATE TO INSTABILITY
RISING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE ANEMIC, THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY ENHANCE WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
BE THE REASON SOME MODEL OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS TN VALLEY. WITH
THESE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE WITHIN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT
OF THE `WETTER` NW FLOW PATTERN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER--IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OVER S PLAINS THEN BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    96  70  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        95  70  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      94  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  94  68  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   93  68  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    94  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030447
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 022327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021910
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  95  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        67  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  64  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  92  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021910
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  95  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        67  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      65  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  64  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  92  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    63  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021728
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 021532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXCEPT TO UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021104
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021104
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  96  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        64  95  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    57  92  60  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 020640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  96  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        64  95  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    57  92  60  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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