000
FXUS64 KHUN 211509 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1009 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE HOVERING AROUND THE
80-DEGREE MARK ALREADY THIS MORNING, THANKS TO MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TO THE NNE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA THROUGH NOON TODAY. MORE
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
CLUSTER RIDES AROUND THE WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE WX/POP GRIDS FOR TODAY, NO CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
MORNING MVFR HAZE OVER KMSL WILL FADE WITHIN A FEW HOURS...WITH VFR
WEATHER GENERALLY PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
TODAY...AS CONVECTION NEARS FROM THE WEST. THAT CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW IN THE
5-15 KT RANGE. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RSB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NARROW UPR
RIDGE HOLDS ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF
STORMS PUSHING INTO WRN TN/NE MS HAS CREATED A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD END UP AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF NW ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION AS AIRMASS HEATS UP BY MIDDAY. HOW FAR EAST THIS POTENTIAL
CONVECTION GOES BEFORE INTERACTING WITH UPR RIDGE WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TODAY.
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND EAST COAST DISTURBANCES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTN. DISCOUNTING THE
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE 00Z/21 NAM FOR TODAY. OVERALL...BELIEVE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...HOWEVER WILL MENTION THREAT OF ISOLD
AFTN (10-20% POP) SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW AL AND NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO LAST LONG BENEATH UPR
RIDGE.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVE AS
LONGWAVE UPR TROUGH FINALLY APPROACHES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
SUSTAIN ITSELF ALONG LEADING PRE-FRONTAL/850 MB BOUNDARY WITH MAXIMUM
LOW LVL CONVG AND LOW LVL WIND ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS NW ALABAMA BY
12Z/WED. POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NW AL...WITH LESSER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHERE
INCREASED LOW LVL FORCING /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALONG WITH A THETA-E MAXIMUM
WILL SUPPORT SCT-NUMRS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MARGINAL LOW LVL SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS EMBEDDED IN PERHAPS A WEAK
LEWP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH PASSING UPR
LVL WAVES COULD KEEP A FEW -SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL.
SFC FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN
ARKANSAS/NW TN/WRN KY BY 15Z/THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACCELEATE
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...STILL INFLUENCED BY BROAD LONGWAVE UPR TROUGH...ADDITIONAL
UPR LVL ENERGY WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY COULD
SUPPORT A BRIEF ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THURS AFTN. THE 00Z/21 NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THIS POTENTIAL SOLN BUT EVEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW SOMETHING COMING TOGETHER.
EXTENDED /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. AFTER A COOL START FRIDAY MORNING /LOWS IN
THE MID 50S/...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPR 70S BENEATH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE COLDEST MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY AS
LOWS COULD FALL TO THE UPR 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. A "DIRTY"
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE 00Z/21 ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPR WAVES TRAVERSING THE
DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. THIS IS A NEW SOLN AND RELATIVE
OUTLIER WITH THE OTHER OPER MODEL/ENSEMBLES...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A
DRIER SOLN SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY SUN/MON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPR
RIDGE.
DJN.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 211142 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS (DAKOTAS) WITH A SMALLER UPR LVL
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO...ALONG THE BASE OF THE MAIN
VORTEX. FARTHER EAST...A NARROW UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE TN/OHIO VALLEYS BUT IS GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
BROAD UPR LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SEVERAL WEAKER UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...BETWEEN FLORIDA AND VIRGINIA.
THIS PRIMARY UPR LVL VORTEX WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DEVASTATING TORNADOES ACROSS OK/TX THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL
GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...LOSING MUCH OF
ITS PUNCH IN THE PROCESS BUT STILL SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WELL-DEFINED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST CROSSING THE MS RIVER INTO WRN TN/NW MS. GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS N/NE...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS SEEN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
DJN.83
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WARM AND MAINLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NARROW UPR
RIDGE HOLDS ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF
STORMS PUSHING INTO WRN TN/NE MS HAS CREATED A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD END UP AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF NW ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION AS AIRMASS HEATS UP BY MIDDAY. HOW FAR EAST THIS POTENTIAL
CONVECTION GOES BEFORE INTERACTING WITH UPR RIDGE WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TODAY.
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND EAST COAST DISTURBANCES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTN. DISCOUNTING THE
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE 00Z/21 NAM FOR TODAY. OVERALL...BELIEVE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...HOWEVER WILL MENTION THREAT OF ISOLD
AFTN (10-20% POP) SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW AL AND NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO LAST LONG BENEATH UPR
RIDGE.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVE AS
LONGWAVE UPR TROUGH FINALLY APPROACHES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
SUSTAIN ITSELF ALONG LEADING PRE-FRONTAL/850 MB BOUNDARY WITH MAXIMUM
LOW LVL CONVG AND LOW LVL WIND ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS NW ALABAMA BY
12Z/WED. POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NW AL...WITH LESSER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHERE
INCREASED LOW LVL FORCING /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALONG WITH A THETA-E MAXIMUM
WILL SUPPORT SCT-NUMRS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MARGINAL LOW LVL SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS EMBEDDED IN PERHAPS A WEAK
LEWP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH PASSING UPR
LVL WAVES COULD KEEP A FEW -SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL.
SFC FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN
ARKANSAS/NW TN/WRN KY BY 15Z/THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACCELEATE
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...STILL INFLUENCED BY BROAD LONGWAVE UPR TROUGH...ADDITIONAL
UPR LVL ENERGY WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY COULD
SUPPORT A BRIEF ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THURS AFTN. THE 00Z/21 NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THIS POTENTIAL SOLN BUT EVEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW SOMETHING COMING TOGETHER.
.EXTENDED /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. AFTER A COOL START FRIDAY MORNING /LOWS IN
THE MID 50S/...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPR 70S BENEATH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE COLDEST MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY AS
LOWS COULD FALL TO THE UPR 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. A "DIRTY"
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE 00Z/21 ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPR WAVES TRAVERSING THE
DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. THIS IS A NEW SOLN AND RELATIVE
OUTLIER WITH THE OTHER OPER MODEL/ENSEMBLES...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A
DRIER SOLN SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY SUN/MON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPR
RIDGE.
DJN.83
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
MORNING MVFR HAZE OVER KMSL WILL FADE WITHIN A FEW HOURS...WITH VFR
WEATHER GENERALLY PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
TODAY...AS CONVECTION NEARS FROM THE WEST. THAT CONVECTION WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW IN THE
5-15 KT RANGE. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RSB
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 210830
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX
SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS (DAKOTAS) WITH A SMALLER UPR LVL
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO...ALONG THE BASE OF THE MAIN
VORTEX. FARTHER EAST...A NARROW UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE TN/OHIO VALLEYS BUT IS GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
BROAD UPR LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SEVERAL WEAKER UPR LVL
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...BETWEEN FLORIDA AND VIRGINIA.
THIS PRIMARY UPR LVL VORTEX WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DEVASTATING TORNADOES ACROSS OK/TX THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL
GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...LOSING MUCH OF
ITS PUNCH IN THE PROCESS BUT STILL SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WELL-DEFINED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST CROSSING THE MS RIVER INTO WRN TN/NW MS. GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS N/NE...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS SEEN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
DJN.83
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MAINLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NARROW UPR
RIDGE HOLDS ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF
STORMS PUSHING INTO WRN TN/NE MS HAS CREATED A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD END UP AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF NW ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION AS AIRMASS HEATS UP BY MIDDAY. HOW FAR EAST THIS POTENTIAL
CONVECTION GOES BEFORE INTERACTING WITH UPR RIDGE WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TODAY.
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND EAST COAST DISTURBANCES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTN. DISCOUNTING THE
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE 00Z/21 NAM FOR TODAY. OVERALL...BELIEVE MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...HOWEVER WILL MENTION THREAT OF
ISOLD AFTN (10-20% POP) SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW AL AND NE AL/SRN MIDDLE
TN. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO LAST LONG
BENEATH UPR RIDGE.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVE AS
LONGWAVE UPR TROUGH FINALLY APPROACHES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
SUSTAIN ITSELF ALONG LEADING PRE-FRONTAL/850 MB BOUNDARY WITH MAXIMUM
LOW LVL CONVG AND LOW LVL WIND ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS NW ALABAMA BY
12Z/WED. POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NW AL...WITH LESSER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHERE
INCREASED LOW LVL FORCING /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALONG WITH A THETA-E MAXIMUM
WILL SUPPORT SCT-NUMRS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MARGINAL LOW LVL SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS EMBEDDED IN PERHAPS A WEAK
LEWP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH PASSING UPR
LVL WAVES COULD KEEP A FEW -SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AL.
SFC FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN
ARKANSAS/NW TN/WRN KY BY 15Z/THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACCELEATE
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...STILL INFLUENCED BY BROAD LONGWAVE UPR TROUGH...ADDITIONAL
UPR LVL ENERGY WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY COULD
SUPPORT A BRIEF ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THURS AFTN. THE 00Z/21 NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THIS POTENTIAL SOLN BUT EVEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW SOMETHING COMING TOGETHER.
.EXTENDED /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. AFTER A COOL START FRIDAY MORNING /LOWS IN
THE MID 50S/...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPR 70S BENEATH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE COLDEST MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY AS
LOWS COULD FALL TO THE UPR 40S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. A "DIRTY"
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE 00Z/21 ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPR WAVES TRAVERSING THE
DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. THIS IS A NEW SOLN AND RELATIVE
OUTLIER WITH THE OTHER OPER MODEL/ENSEMBLES...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A
DRIER SOLN SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY SUN/MON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPR
RIDGE.
DJN.83
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH HSV AND MSL. WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO 5SM BR GROUP AT MSL FROM 09Z
TO 13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR HSV AND MSL.
TT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 88 68 81 62 / 10 20 50 30
SHOALS 87 67 81 62 / 20 30 50 20
VINEMONT 85 65 78 59 / 10 20 40 30
FAYETTEVILLE 87 68 77 62 / 10 20 50 30
ALBERTVILLE 84 68 80 61 / 10 10 40 40
FORT PAYNE 85 64 78 60 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 210516 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1216 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S OCCURRING AT 02Z. THE LAST
FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE INDICATED THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD OF
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI...WERE MOVING INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND TO ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOWARD MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE TEMPS...AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS...WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE A FORECAST UPDATE OUT IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH HSV AND MSL. WILL KEEP IN A TEMPO 5SM BR GROUP AT MSL FROM 09Z
TO 13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR HSV AND MSL.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 210233 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S OCCURRING AT 02Z. THE LAST
FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE INDICATED THAT THE CIRRUS SHIELD OF
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI...WERE MOVING INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND TO ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOWARD MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE TEMPS...AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS...WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE A FORECAST UPDATE OUT IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT HSV AND MSL. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE BETWEEN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME AT MSL...WHERE A
TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY WAS ADDED IN DUE TO EXPECTED POSSIBILITY THAT
FOG COULD FORM. EXPECT A SCATTERED DECK OF CUMULUS AT AROUND 4KFT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 202306 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
CLOUD COVER WAS RATHER SLOW TO CLR/EXIT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG FETCH OF SLY INFLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING
ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN...ANY SUBSEQUENT CLEARING HEADING
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD MAY BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A SLY/SWLY GULF
INFLOW PREVAILING INTO TUE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUE...AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TUE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
DEPTH EVOLVING ON TUE...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS. IN ANY CASE...THE BULK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD AND DIVERGE TUE NIGHT...WITH THE SRN
STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT...AND THEN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT/INTO WED. THE FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
THEN TAPERING OFF THU AS THE FRONT WEAKENS/EXITS TO THE E.
SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN WITH THE
COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. GENERAL CONSENSUS THOUGH
WOULD KEEP POPS IN THE SCT CAT...MAINLY WED AND WED NIGHT. WHILE THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT LOOK TO WEAKEN/SHEAR TO
THE NE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE
TO WARRANT THE PROB FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY OF THE TSTMS INTO WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REINFORCING SURGE
OF MOD POLAR AIR DIVING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS FRI.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE START
OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO RESULT IN QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL
LIKE CONDITIONS/TEMPS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL AID IN THE RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FORMS ACROSS THE REGION MON.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT HSV AND MSL. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE BETWEEN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME AT MSL...WHERE A
TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY WAS ADDED IN DUE TO EXPECTED POSSIBILITY THAT
FOG COULD FORM. EXPECT A SCATTERED DECK OF CUMULUS AT AROUND 4KFT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201925
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WAS RATHER SLOW TO CLR/EXIT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG FETCH OF SLY INFLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING
ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN...ANY SUBSEQUENT CLEARING HEADING
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD MAY BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A SLY/SWLY GULF
INFLOW PREVAILING INTO TUE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUE...AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TUE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
DEPTH EVOLVING ON TUE...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS. IN ANY CASE...THE BULK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD AND DIVERGE TUE NIGHT...WITH THE SRN
STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT...AND THEN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT/INTO WED. THE FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
THEN TAPERING OFF THU AS THE FRONT WEAKENS/EXITS TO THE E.
SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN WITH THE
COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. GENERAL CONSENSUS THOUGH
WOULD KEEP POPS IN THE SCT CAT...MAINLY WED AND WED NIGHT. WHILE THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT LOOK TO WEAKEN/SHEAR TO
THE NE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE
TO WARRANT THE PROB FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY OF THE TSTMS INTO WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REINFORCING SURGE
OF MOD POLAR AIR DIVING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS FRI.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE START
OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO RESULT IN QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL
LIKE CONDITIONS/TEMPS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL AID IN THE RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FORMS ACROSS THE REGION MON.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THE AFTN AS LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21/00Z TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
21/00Z TONIGHT, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 68 90 69 85 / 10 10 20 50
SHOALS 68 90 68 84 / 10 10 30 50
VINEMONT 66 88 66 82 / 10 10 20 50
FAYETTEVILLE 65 87 66 83 / 10 10 20 50
ALBERTVILLE 65 86 66 83 / 10 10 20 50
FORT PAYNE 64 88 63 84 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201729 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1005 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING 4-6 DEGREES BELOW WHAT
WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN ADDITION, MORNING FOG IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (AND HAS BEEN FORMALLY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST).
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR BY MIDDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RESPOND TO
THE INSOLATION, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS
AND TWEAKS TO MORNING SKY GRIDS, THE REST OF THE FORECAST HANDLES
BOTH ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS FOR TODAY.
WILL RESEND THE ZONES SHORTLY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THE AFTN AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 21/00Z TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTN OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21/00Z TONIGHT,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
12
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201505 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1005 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING 4-6 DEGREES BELOW WHAT
WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IN ADDITION, MORNING FOG IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (AND HAS BEEN FORMALLY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST).
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR BY MIDDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RESPOND TO
THE INSOLATION, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS
AND TWEAKS TO MORNING SKY GRIDS, THE REST OF THE FORECAST HANDLES
BOTH ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS FOR TODAY.
WILL RESEND THE ZONES SHORTLY.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/ADVECTING ACROSS NRN AL WITH CIGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 008-015 AGL. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS /1000-2000FT/ WILL
PREVAIL...BUT COULD SEE PERIODIC DIPS TO IFR CAT (NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL). SHORT RANGE /RAP/ MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE AND LOW CIGS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH 15-17Z. BY 17Z...SRLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND HEATING WILL DISSIPATE MAJORITY OF SHALLOW LOW
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/TUES...THOUGH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHALLOW FOG COULD REDEVELOP BRIEFLY ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
DJN.83
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PRODUCE AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST
WAS HELPING TO BRING WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS RIDGE...NOTED FROM GEORGIA TO
VIRGINIA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST. YESTERDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN...NW
GA...AND FAR NE AL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE AFFECTING PARTS OF NE ALABAMA.
LIGHTER FOG/MIST WAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER TO
THE EAST TODAY...HELPING TO END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...MORE WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE A FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY...AND MID 60S ON TUE...
WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING MORE STRONG STORMS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY AND ON TUE. AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARS...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THUR...AS THE FRONT GETS EVER
CLOSER. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER...WILL
HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS THIS GO AROUND FOR WED. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STRONGER SHEAR
AND OTHER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT EAST OF THE VALLEY THU/FRI WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEEKEND ARRIVES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HI/LO
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
RSB
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201113 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PRODUCE AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST
WAS HELPING TO BRING WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS RIDGE...NOTED FROM GEORGIA TO
VIRGINIA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST. YESTERDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN...NW
GA...AND FAR NE AL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE AFFECTING PARTS OF NE ALABAMA.
LIGHTER FOG/MIST WAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER TO
THE EAST TODAY...HELPING TO END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...MORE WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE A FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY...AND MID 60S ON TUE...
WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING MORE STRONG STORMS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY AND ON TUE. AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARS...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THUR...AS THE FRONT GETS EVER
CLOSER. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER...WILL
HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS THIS GO AROUND FOR WED. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STRONGER SHEAR
AND OTHER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT EAST OF THE VALLEY THU/FRI WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEEKEND ARRIVES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HI/LO
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
RSB
&&
.AVIATION... FOR 12Z TAFS...
LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/ADVECTING ACROSS NRN AL WITH CIGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 008-015 AGL. BELIEVE MVFR CIGS /1000-2000FT/ WILL
PREVAIL...BUT COULD SEE PERIODIC DIPS TO IFR CAT (NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL). SHORT RANGE /RAP/ MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE AND LOW CIGS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH 15-17Z. BY 17Z...SRLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND HEATING WILL DISSIPATE MAJORITY OF SHALLOW LOW
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/TUES...THOUGH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHALLOW FOG COULD REDEVELOP BRIEFLY ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
DJN.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200902
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
402 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PRODUCE AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST
WAS HELPING TO BRING WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THIS RIDGE...NOTED FROM GEORGIA TO
VIRGINIA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST. YESTERDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
SYSTEM LIKELY PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN...NW
GA...AND FAR NE AL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT RAIN HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE AFFECTING PARTS OF NE ALABAMA.
LIGHTER FOG/MIST WAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER TO
THE EAST TODAY...HELPING TO END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...MORE WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE A FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY...AND MID 60S ON TUE...
WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING MORE STRONG STORMS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY AND ON TUE. AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARS...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THIS REGION TUE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THUR...AS THE FRONT GETS EVER
CLOSER. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN CHARACTER...WILL
HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS THIS GO AROUND FOR WED. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STRONGER SHEAR
AND OTHER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT EAST OF THE VALLEY THU/FRI WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE NEXT WEEKEND ARRIVES. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER HI/LO
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH VALUES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
RSB
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...OUTFLOW FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DROPPED TEMPS/DEWPTS
ABOUT 5-10F COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AFT 09Z AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS /MVFR/ DEVELOP BTWN
11Z-13Z. THIS IS NOT COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL RATHER MOIST AND SRLY LOW LVL FLOW EXISTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
TT/DJN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 89 68 89 69 / 10 10 10 20
SHOALS 89 68 90 68 / 10 10 20 30
VINEMONT 87 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 20
FAYETTEVILLE 87 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 86 67 84 67 / 10 10 10 20
FORT PAYNE 87 65 87 65 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200535 AAD
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DISSIPATED NEAR INTERSTATE 65...AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED. WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES
SHORTLY TO DROP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
CLOUD FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE TEMP FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES WITH THE
UPDATE.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...OUTFLOW FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DROPPED TEMPS/DEWPTS
ABOUT 5-10F COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AFT 09Z AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS /MVFR/ DEVELOP BTWN
11Z-13Z. THIS IS NOT COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL RATHER MOIST AND SRLY LOW LVL FLOW EXISTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
TT/DJN
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200121 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DISSIPATED NEAR INTERSTATE 65...AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED. WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES
SHORTLY TO DROP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
CLOUD FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE TEMP FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES WITH THE
UPDATE.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE KEPT IN A TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 MILES AT BOTH HSV AND MSL BETWEEN 10Z TO
14Z. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER 14Z IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192321 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE AMENDING ZONES SHORTLY TO KEEP IN MENTION OF AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO ALONG
INTERSTATE 65...WITH SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WEST. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT AREA SO THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AROUND MID
EVENING...AS ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER IMMEDIATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE KEPT IN A TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 MILES AT BOTH HSV AND MSL BETWEEN 10Z TO
14Z. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER 14Z IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192309 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF ERN TN SWD
INTO NRN GA THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS BEING IMPACTED
MULTIPLE TIMES BY CELL TRAINING. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS
MANAGED TO REMAIN JUST E OF THE AL/GA STATE LINE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED WELL E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE
BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE W HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE CNTRL/WRN
HALF OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HRS. CERTAINLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
GIVEN THE AMPLE HEATING FROM TODAY. ENHANCED UPPER FORCING COUPLED
WITH ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NE.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS DRIER MID LEVEL MID AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE SE REGION SHIFTING TO THE
E ON MON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN GULF REMAINING FAIRLY
STAGNANT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH MON AND TUE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVER
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE GOING PAST MID
WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
INDICATE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WED/THU...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL XPCTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED INTO THU...WITH THE FRONT THEN
WEAKENING AS IS CROSSES INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WELL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP STARTING TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION...AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY WED. PRECIP COVERAGE IS XPCTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SCT INTO THU WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP THEN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATE THU
AND INTO FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
LATEST MODELS WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT DIVING SWD THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRI. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHTLY MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE KEPT IN A TEMPO
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 MILES AT BOTH HSV AND MSL BETWEEN 10Z TO
14Z. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER 14Z IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191940
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF ERN TN SWD
INTO NRN GA THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS BEING IMPACTED
MULTIPLE TIMES BY CELL TRAINING. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS
MANAGED TO REMAIN JUST E OF THE AL/GA STATE LINE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED WELL E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE
BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE W HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE CNTRL/WRN
HALF OF THE AREA RAIN FREE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HRS. CERTAINLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
GIVEN THE AMPLE HEATING FROM TODAY. ENHANCED UPPER FORCING COUPLED
WITH ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN WEAKENS/LIFTS TO THE NE.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS DRIER MID LEVEL MID AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE SE REGION SHIFTING TO THE
E ON MON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN GULF REMAINING FAIRLY
STAGNANT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BOTH MON AND TUE...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVER
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE GOING PAST MID
WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
INDICATE A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WED/THU...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO CNTRL TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL XPCTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED INTO THU...WITH THE FRONT THEN
WEAKENING AS IS CROSSES INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WELL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP STARTING TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION...AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY WED. PRECIP COVERAGE IS XPCTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY SCT INTO THU WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP THEN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATE THU
AND INTO FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
LATEST MODELS WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT DIVING SWD THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRI. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHTLY MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS A RESULT THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
TAPER OFF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS KHSV STILL HAS A CHC OF VCSH OR
VCTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO RIDGING...OVER NW
AL SHOULD KEEP KMSL PCPN FREE. AFTER 00Z THE CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 67 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
SHOALS 67 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 20
VINEMONT 66 87 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 65 87 65 87 / 10 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 65 87 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 63 87 64 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191734
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE WHICH PUTS THE ERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN NW FLOW. THERE WERE A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UP IN THIS NW FLOW WHICH WAS DUMPING VERY HVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN TN AND THE NRN HALF OF GA. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THIS AFTN...THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL TAPER OFF. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH A LOW POP (20/30 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I65...WEST OF I65 WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTN...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS A RESULT THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
TAPER OFF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS KHSV STILL HAS A CHC OF VCSH OR
VCTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO RIDGING...OVER NW
AL SHOULD KEEP KMSL PCPN FREE. AFTER 00Z THE CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z AT BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
07
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191634
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED/ADJUSTED POPS...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE WHICH PUTS THE ERN
HALF OF OUR CWA IN NW FLOW. THERE WERE A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UP IN THIS NW FLOW WHICH WAS DUMPING VERY HVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN TN AND THE NRN HALF OF GA. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THIS AFTN...THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL TAPER OFF. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH A LOW POP (20/30 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I65...WEST OF I65 WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTN...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HVY RAIN.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SHALLOW FOG HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR VSBY AT BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
CIGS (~600 FT AGL) ADVECTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
LOWER /IFR/ CIGS TO IMPACT KHSV AT LEAST THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY PREVAIL AND INCREASING WIND/MIXING ERODE
HAZE/FOG LAYER WITHIN MOIST BNDRY LAYER. ANY SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STAY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
-SHRA/-TSRA. FORECASTERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
DJN.83
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THUS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...AND INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BLOCKING
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL
FORCE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH A 15-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-70 DEGREE
RANGE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRONGER CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MOST
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- MAINTAINING STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CP AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS -- BRINGING THE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191129 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THUS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...AND INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BLOCKING
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL
FORCE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH A 15-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-70 DEGREE
RANGE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRONGER CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MOST
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- MAINTAINING STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CP AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS -- BRINGING THE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SHALLOW FOG HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR VSBY AT BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
CIGS (~600 FT AGL) ADVECTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
LOWER /IFR/ CIGS TO IMPACT KHSV AT LEAST THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY PREVAIL AND INCREASING WIND/MIXING ERODE
HAZE/FOG LAYER WITHIN MOIST BNDRY LAYER. ANY SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STAY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
-SHRA/-TSRA. FORECASTERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
DJN.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190952
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
452 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THUS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH...AND INCREASINGLY
INFLUENCED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL WARMING AND
HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG BLOCKING
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL
FORCE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...LIKELY REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH A 15-25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS BOTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA -- WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THIS...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-70 DEGREE
RANGE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRONGER CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MOST
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION -- MAINTAINING STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GUIDANCE FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CP AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS -- BRINGING THE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS THE DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY IN FOG WILL PERSIST AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AFT 09Z.
POCKETS OF SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NW AL IN MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KMSL AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AS SHORT- RANGE HI RES MODELS DEPICT INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS N AL. MUCH OF SUNDAY /AFT 15Z/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE. ANY MVFR
CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AFT 15Z AS WELL.
TT/DJN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 83 68 88 69 / 50 10 10 10
SHOALS 87 68 89 68 / 30 10 10 10
VINEMONT 82 66 86 66 / 40 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 81 66 86 66 / 60 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 76 65 86 65 / 50 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 79 63 86 64 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190545 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES SHORTLY TO LOWER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE THE CULPRITS FOR THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE CONTINUING TO FORM. THE AREAS OF EMPHASIS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED
TEMPS UPWARD IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO IR SATELLITE TRENDING THIS EVENING.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY IN FOG WILL PERSIST AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AFT 09Z.
POCKETS OF SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NW AL IN MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT KMSL AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AS SHORT-RANGE HI RES MODELS DEPICT INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT ACROSS N AL. MUCH OF SUNDAY /AFT 15Z/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE. ANY MVFR
CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AFT 15Z AS WELL.
TT/DJN
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190207 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE AMENDING THE ZONES SHORTLY TO LOWER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE THE CULPRITS FOR THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE CONTINUING TO FORM. THE AREAS OF EMPHASIS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED
TEMPS UPWARD IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO IR SATELLITE TRENDING THIS EVENING.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AT MSL AT 23Z CONTINUED
TO INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS THERE IN
THE HIGHER END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 01Z. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 08Z...AS
THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. WILL IMPROVE
CEILINGS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT HSV AT 15Z AND MSL AT 16Z AND KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 182332 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 IN SOME AREAS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SEWD
INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC REGION...AND IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN/NE AL. THE COVERAGE THOUGH HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SCT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LIFTING TO THE NE. LATENT HEATING
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON A GENERAL DECLINE FROM W TO E AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD.
UNSEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE STORY GOING INTO
THE NEW WEEK...AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN OUT W MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
ERN GULF...AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
LOOK REASONABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIP
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W ON SUN...AS DRIER AIR
IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/SW.
THE WX PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE OR UNSETTLED GOING PAST
MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID
PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
HAVE THIS SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WED/THU AND WEAKENING.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE XPCTED ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP THEN TAPERING OFF LATE
THU AND INTO FRI AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE E. ANY REAL COOL DOWN
THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...AS MOD POLAR AIR DIVES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AT MSL AT 23Z CONTINUED
TO INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS THERE IN
THE HIGHER END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 01Z. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 08Z...AS
THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. WILL IMPROVE
CEILINGS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT HSV AT 15Z AND MSL AT 16Z AND KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 182000
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 IN SOME AREAS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SEWD
INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC REGION...AND IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN/NE AL. THE COVERAGE THOUGH HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SCT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LIFTING TO THE NE. LATENT HEATING
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON A GENERAL DECLINE FROM W TO E AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD.
UNSEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE STORY GOING INTO
THE NEW WEEK...AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN OUT W MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
ERN GULF...AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
LOOK REASONABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIP
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W ON SUN...AS DRIER AIR
IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/SW.
THE WX PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE OR UNSETTLED GOING PAST
MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID
PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
HAVE THIS SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WED/THU AND WEAKENING.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE XPCTED ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP THEN TAPERING OFF LATE
THU AND INTO FRI AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE E. ANY REAL COOL DOWN
THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...AS MOD POLAR AIR DIVES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE
CWA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. AN OLD BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 01Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY
INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDANT
WITH MODELS QPF DATA ATTM...SO WILL GO WITH VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR
NOW.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 67 87 68 89 / 40 20 10 10
SHOALS 68 87 68 90 / 30 20 10 10
VINEMONT 66 85 66 86 / 30 20 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 64 85 64 87 / 40 40 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 65 84 65 87 / 30 40 10 10
FORT PAYNE 64 84 63 88 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181801
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
5H UPPER TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ERN GA...WHILE AT 8H A
WEAK TROF WAS ALONG THE AL/GA LINE. MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SE. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING
SCT LIGHT SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW AL THRU CULLMAN COUNTY AND INTO
EAST CENTRAL AL...PROBABLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR WEAK
WARM FRONT. ATTM CLOUDS WERE COVERING MOST OF THE TN VALLEY. AS A
RESULT WILL LOWER TEMPS TO ARND 80.
OTHERWISE WITH CAPES APPROACHING 2000...LI`S ARND MINUS 5...OLD
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S...WON`T TAKE
MUCH TO KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCT NATURE OF
PCPN TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A LITTLE. STILL KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN OUR SRN ZONES...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SINCE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ARND 10000 FT...THERE COULD
BE A CHC OF SOME LARGE HAIL. FINALLY ANY STORM WOULD ALSO HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HVY RAIN.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE
CWA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. AN OLD BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 01Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY
INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDANT
WITH MODELS QPF DATA ATTM...SO WILL GO WITH VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR
NOW.
07
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
| 
