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000
FXUS64 KHUN 160124 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
824 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND GENERALLY STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR (2-4 DEGREES COOLER DEWPOINTS) IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK SFC `COOL` FRONT. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MADE TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TO SHOW THE
TREND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT (SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS/LOWER
DEWPOINTS). THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS IS
POSSIBLE WHICH WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO DRIZZLE.
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON ADDING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND CPDS BTWN 10-14
MB.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION (POSSIBLY BELOW ALT MINIMUMS) IS
LIKELY BTWN 10-14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. ISOL SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS
DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. ALSO, THE LOW CIGS MAY
PERSIST AFTER 14Z UNTIL 18Z BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SCT DECK IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160124 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
824 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND GENERALLY STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR (2-4 DEGREES COOLER DEWPOINTS) IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK SFC `COOL` FRONT. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MADE TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TO SHOW THE
TREND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT (SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS/LOWER
DEWPOINTS). THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS IS
POSSIBLE WHICH WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO DRIZZLE.
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON ADDING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND CPDS BTWN 10-14
MB.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION (POSSIBLY BELOW ALT MINIMUMS) IS
LIKELY BTWN 10-14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. ISOL SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS
DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. ALSO, THE LOW CIGS MAY
PERSIST AFTER 14Z UNTIL 18Z BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SCT DECK IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 152334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
PESKY LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWFA TODAY, FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING UP TO OUR
SOUTH, WITH MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AFFECTED AT
THIS HOUR. TO OUR NW, A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS, SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TN AND BACK
INTO AR. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB HANDLING THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH, BUT MOST OF THEM HAVEN`T DONE THE
BEST JOB WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RADAR TRENDS TO OUR WEST,
MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ERRING ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST FROM 00-06Z, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED SW FROM THE SFC LOW IN NW MO BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE
FROPA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE N, AND WITH
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK.

ONCE THE FRONT MEANDERS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE WON`T SEE THE MUCH COOLER LIKE WE DID WITH THE LAST FROPA THIS
PAST WEEKEND, BUT A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S. MORNING LOWS BY WEDNESDAY WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60, SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, COMBINED WITH
THE AREA SITUATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER S TX. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A LATE-
WEEKEND COLD FRONT PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, AM MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENT PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THIS FAR OUT,
SO WILL NOT BE MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION (POSSIBLY BELOW ALT MINIMUMS) IS
LIKELY BTWN 10-14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. ISOL SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS
DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. ALSO, THE LOW CIGS MAY
PERSIST AFTER 14Z UNTIL 18Z BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SCT DECK IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 152334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
PESKY LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWFA TODAY, FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING UP TO OUR
SOUTH, WITH MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AFFECTED AT
THIS HOUR. TO OUR NW, A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS, SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TN AND BACK
INTO AR. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB HANDLING THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH, BUT MOST OF THEM HAVEN`T DONE THE
BEST JOB WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RADAR TRENDS TO OUR WEST,
MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ERRING ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST FROM 00-06Z, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED SW FROM THE SFC LOW IN NW MO BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE
FROPA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE N, AND WITH
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK.

ONCE THE FRONT MEANDERS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE WON`T SEE THE MUCH COOLER LIKE WE DID WITH THE LAST FROPA THIS
PAST WEEKEND, BUT A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S. MORNING LOWS BY WEDNESDAY WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60, SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, COMBINED WITH
THE AREA SITUATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER S TX. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A LATE-
WEEKEND COLD FRONT PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, AM MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENT PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THIS FAR OUT,
SO WILL NOT BE MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION (POSSIBLY BELOW ALT MINIMUMS) IS
LIKELY BTWN 10-14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. ISOL SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS
DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. ALSO, THE LOW CIGS MAY
PERSIST AFTER 14Z UNTIL 18Z BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SCT DECK IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PESKY LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWFA TODAY, FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING UP TO OUR
SOUTH, WITH MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AFFECTED AT
THIS HOUR. TO OUR NW, A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS, SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TN AND BACK
INTO AR. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB HANDLING THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH, BUT MOST OF THEM HAVEN`T DONE THE
BEST JOB WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RADAR TRENDS TO OUR WEST,
MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ERRING ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST FROM 00-06Z, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED SW FROM THE SFC LOW IN NW MO BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE
FROPA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE N, AND WITH
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK.

ONCE THE FRONT MEANDERS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE WON`T SEE THE MUCH COOLER LIKE WE DID WITH THE LAST FROPA THIS
PAST WEEKEND, BUT A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S. MORNING LOWS BY WEDNESDAY WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60, SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, COMBINED WITH
THE AREA SITUATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER S TX. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A LATE-
WEEKEND COLD FRONT PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, AM MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENT PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THIS FAR OUT,
SO WILL NOT BE MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... MVFR CIG AT KHSV WILL LIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE VFR RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
EITHER KMSL OR KHSV ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING, WITH BR DEVELOPING LATE PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
THRU ~14Z.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  84  60  81 /  20  20  10   0
SHOALS        62  84  58  82 /  20  20  10   0
VINEMONT      64  83  59  79 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  61  81  57  79 /  20  20  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   64  84  61  81 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    65  83  61  80 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151911
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PESKY LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWFA TODAY, FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND LIFT OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING UP TO OUR
SOUTH, WITH MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AFFECTED AT
THIS HOUR. TO OUR NW, A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS, SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TN AND BACK
INTO AR. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB HANDLING THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH, BUT MOST OF THEM HAVEN`T DONE THE
BEST JOB WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RADAR TRENDS TO OUR WEST,
MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ERRING ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST FROM 00-06Z, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED SW FROM THE SFC LOW IN NW MO BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH THE
FROPA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE N, AND WITH
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW, INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK.

ONCE THE FRONT MEANDERS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE WON`T SEE THE MUCH COOLER LIKE WE DID WITH THE LAST FROPA THIS
PAST WEEKEND, BUT A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S. MORNING LOWS BY WEDNESDAY WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60, SLOWLY MODERATING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, COMBINED WITH
THE AREA SITUATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER S TX. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS E LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A LATE-
WEEKEND COLD FRONT PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, AM MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENT PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THIS FAR OUT,
SO WILL NOT BE MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES JUST YET.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... MVFR CIG AT KHSV WILL LIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE VFR RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
EITHER KMSL OR KHSV ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING, WITH BR DEVELOPING LATE PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
THRU ~14Z.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  84  60  81 /  20  20  10   0
SHOALS        62  84  58  82 /  20  20  10   0
VINEMONT      64  83  59  79 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  61  81  57  79 /  20  20  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   64  84  61  81 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    65  83  61  80 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151727
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 759 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
SHALLOW MOIST AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A WIDESPREAD DECK
OF LOW STRATUS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG (ESPECIALLY ON MTN TOPS) WAS
OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST WHILE REMOVING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UNLESS THE STRATUS LAYER CAN BREAK UP,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OPPOSED
TO SURFACE BASED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... MVFR CIG AT KHSV WILL LIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE VFR RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
EITHER KMSL OR KHSV ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING, WITH BR DEVELOPING LATE PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
THRU ~14Z.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151727
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 759 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
SHALLOW MOIST AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A WIDESPREAD DECK
OF LOW STRATUS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG (ESPECIALLY ON MTN TOPS) WAS
OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST WHILE REMOVING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UNLESS THE STRATUS LAYER CAN BREAK UP,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OPPOSED
TO SURFACE BASED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... MVFR CIG AT KHSV WILL LIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE VFR RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
EITHER KMSL OR KHSV ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING, WITH BR DEVELOPING LATE PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
THRU ~14Z.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151259 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
759 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING AND DELAY THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW MOIST AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A WIDESPREAD DECK
OF LOW STRATUS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG (ESPECIALLY ON MTN TOPS) WAS
OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST WHILE REMOVING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UNLESS THE STRATUS LAYER CAN BREAK UP,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OPPOSED
TO SURFACE BASED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AT BOTH TAF SITES
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND INSTABILITIES. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
20Z AT KHSV...BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSL THRU 19Z. AFTER 19Z EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSL.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151259 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
759 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING AND DELAY THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW MOIST AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A WIDESPREAD DECK
OF LOW STRATUS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG (ESPECIALLY ON MTN TOPS) WAS
OCCURRING AS WELL. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST WHILE REMOVING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UNLESS THE STRATUS LAYER CAN BREAK UP,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OPPOSED
TO SURFACE BASED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AT BOTH TAF SITES
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND INSTABILITIES. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
20Z AT KHSV...BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSL THRU 19Z. AFTER 19Z EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSL.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151115
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION...ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EARLY MON MORNING. SOME LOW STRATUS OUT OF E CNTRL AL IS
ALSO MOVING NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NE AL...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIFT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION IS XPCTED TO
LIFT NWD LATER TODAY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE
DIFF BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS LAY WITH THE QPF/XPCTED RAINFALL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT TO THE N. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE BY
FAR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
THE GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WILL GIVE
SOME CREDENCE TO THE BETTER ENERGY BEING GENERATED BY THE ECMWF/NAM
LATER TODAY...AND BUMP UP POPS SOME AS THIS WAVE IS LIFTED INTO THE
GENERAL AREA. CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS AS A
REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...AIDED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGIONS. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS NEXT FRONT COUPLED
WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING SEWD WITHIN A NWLY FLOW
REGIME AND INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H7 MAY RESULT
IN SOME TRAILING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE BEFORE ENDING BY THE
EVENING PERIOD.

THE FORECAST IS THEN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE BECOMES REINFORCED...AND WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK
TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL MEANS INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...BEFORE
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND PERHAPS DEVELOPS...AS THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THEREBY CREATING A LARGE SWATH
OF SLY/SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
NW DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT/INTO MON...WITH AT LEAST ISO
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AT BOTH TAF SITES
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND INSTABILITIES. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
20Z AT KHSV...BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSL THRU 19Z. AFTER 19Z EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSL.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151115
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION...ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EARLY MON MORNING. SOME LOW STRATUS OUT OF E CNTRL AL IS
ALSO MOVING NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NE AL...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIFT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION IS XPCTED TO
LIFT NWD LATER TODAY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE
DIFF BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS LAY WITH THE QPF/XPCTED RAINFALL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT TO THE N. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE BY
FAR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
THE GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WILL GIVE
SOME CREDENCE TO THE BETTER ENERGY BEING GENERATED BY THE ECMWF/NAM
LATER TODAY...AND BUMP UP POPS SOME AS THIS WAVE IS LIFTED INTO THE
GENERAL AREA. CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS AS A
REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...AIDED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGIONS. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS NEXT FRONT COUPLED
WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING SEWD WITHIN A NWLY FLOW
REGIME AND INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H7 MAY RESULT
IN SOME TRAILING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE BEFORE ENDING BY THE
EVENING PERIOD.

THE FORECAST IS THEN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE BECOMES REINFORCED...AND WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK
TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL MEANS INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...BEFORE
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND PERHAPS DEVELOPS...AS THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THEREBY CREATING A LARGE SWATH
OF SLY/SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
NW DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT/INTO MON...WITH AT LEAST ISO
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AT BOTH TAF SITES
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND INSTABILITIES. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
20Z AT KHSV...BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMSL THRU 19Z. AFTER 19Z EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSL.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 150845
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION...ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EARLY MON MORNING. SOME LOW STRATUS OUT OF E CNTRL AL IS
ALSO MOVING NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NE AL...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIFT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION IS XPCTED TO
LIFT NWD LATER TODAY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE
DIFF BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS LAY WITH THE QPF/XPCTED RAINFALL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT TO THE N. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE BY
FAR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
THE GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WILL GIVE
SOME CREDENCE TO THE BETTER ENERGY BEING GENERATED BY THE ECMWF/NAM
LATER TODAY...AND BUMP UP POPS SOME AS THIS WAVE IS LIFTED INTO THE
GENERAL AREA. CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS AS A
REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...AIDED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGIONS. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS NEXT FRONT COUPLED
WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING SEWD WITHIN A NWLY FLOW
REGIME AND INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H7 MAY RESULT
IN SOME TRAILING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE BEFORE ENDING BY THE
EVENING PERIOD.

THE FORECAST IS THEN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE BECOMES REINFORCED...AND WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK
TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL MEANS INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...BEFORE
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND PERHAPS DEVELOPS...AS THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THEREBY CREATING A LARGE SWATH
OF SLY/SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
NW DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT/INTO MON...WITH AT LEAST ISO
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN IN MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT
IMAGERY BUILDING INTO NE AL FROM THE EAST...AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD TO THE KHSV TAF SITE BY
12Z. LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE MAY PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS KMSL. MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DISPERSE AT KHSV BY 17-18Z. SHRA POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR WAVE
MAINLY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KHSV DUE TO
BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  64  86  61 /  30  20  20  10
SHOALS        84  63  86  60 /  30  20  20  10
VINEMONT      82  64  85  60 /  40  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  82  61  84  58 /  30  20  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   82  63  86  58 /  40  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    82  63  85  59 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 150457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH FLOW ONGOING IN THE TN VALLEY. PATCHY THIN
CIRRUS HAS MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WRLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S ALREADY IN SOME LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENN...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S IN/NEAR THE LARGER URBAN AREAS AND CONCENTRATED IN NERN
PARTS OF AL.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SSW.
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SFC DEW POINTS TO GRADUALLY RISE
LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE EAST...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINES WITH
NEAR SFC MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOG IS MOST LIKELY IN SOME
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN CULLMAN COUNTY...AND FROM
MADISON/JACKSON INTO MIDDLE TENN. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN IN MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT
IMAGERY BUILDING INTO NE AL FROM THE EAST...AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD TO THE KHSV TAF SITE BY
12Z. LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE MAY PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS KMSL. MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DISPERSE AT KHSV BY 17-18Z. SHRA POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR WAVE
MAINLY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KHSV DUE TO
BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 150457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH FLOW ONGOING IN THE TN VALLEY. PATCHY THIN
CIRRUS HAS MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WRLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S ALREADY IN SOME LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENN...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S IN/NEAR THE LARGER URBAN AREAS AND CONCENTRATED IN NERN
PARTS OF AL.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SSW.
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SFC DEW POINTS TO GRADUALLY RISE
LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE EAST...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINES WITH
NEAR SFC MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOG IS MOST LIKELY IN SOME
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN CULLMAN COUNTY...AND FROM
MADISON/JACKSON INTO MIDDLE TENN. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN IN MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT
IMAGERY BUILDING INTO NE AL FROM THE EAST...AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD TO THE KHSV TAF SITE BY
12Z. LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE MAY PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS KMSL. MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DISPERSE AT KHSV BY 17-18Z. SHRA POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR WAVE
MAINLY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KHSV DUE TO
BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 150251 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
951 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND CLOUDS. ADDED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY TO A FEW EASTERN/CENTRAL LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH FLOW ONGOING IN THE TN VALLEY. PATCHY THIN
CIRRUS HAS MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WRLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S ALREADY IN SOME LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENN...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S IN/NEAR THE LARGER URBAN AREAS AND CONCENTRATED IN NERN
PARTS OF AL.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SSW.
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SFC DEW POINTS TO GRADUALLY RISE
LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE EAST...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINES WITH
NEAR SFC MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOG IS MOST LIKELY IN SOME
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN CULLMAN COUNTY...AND FROM
MADISON/JACKSON INTO MIDDLE TENN. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM N TO E OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY AFTER ~15Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NRN AL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 150251 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
951 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND CLOUDS. ADDED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY TO A FEW EASTERN/CENTRAL LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH FLOW ONGOING IN THE TN VALLEY. PATCHY THIN
CIRRUS HAS MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WRLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S ALREADY IN SOME LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENN...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S IN/NEAR THE LARGER URBAN AREAS AND CONCENTRATED IN NERN
PARTS OF AL.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SSW.
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SFC DEW POINTS TO GRADUALLY RISE
LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE EAST...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINES WITH
NEAR SFC MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOG IS MOST LIKELY IN SOME
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN CULLMAN COUNTY...AND FROM
MADISON/JACKSON INTO MIDDLE TENN. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM N TO E OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY AFTER ~15Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NRN AL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 142339 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS OF 19Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE A SHORT WAVE AT 500
MILLIBARS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 00Z TUESDAY. PVA ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THAT DUE TO TIMING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ADJOINING SECOND SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY.

THE MODELS BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM N TO E OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY AFTER ~15Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NRN AL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 142339 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS OF 19Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE A SHORT WAVE AT 500
MILLIBARS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 00Z TUESDAY. PVA ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THAT DUE TO TIMING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ADJOINING SECOND SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY.

THE MODELS BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM N TO E OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY AFTER ~15Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NRN AL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 141947
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS OF 19Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE A SHORT WAVE AT 500
MILLIBARS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 00Z TUESDAY. PVA ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THAT DUE TO TIMING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ADJOINING SECOND SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY.

THE MODELS BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TAF SITES BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY EAST OF KHSV. FOR NOW, WILL NOT
FORMALLY INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
REASSESS THIS THREAT WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  86  64  86 /  10  30  30  20
SHOALS        64  87  65  87 /  10  20  30  20
VINEMONT      63  87  64  87 /  10  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  61  85  62  85 /  10  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   63  85  63  86 /  10  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    62  84  63  85 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 141947
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS OF 19Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE A SHORT WAVE AT 500
MILLIBARS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 00Z TUESDAY. PVA ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THAT DUE TO TIMING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ADJOINING SECOND SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY.

THE MODELS BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TAF SITES BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY EAST OF KHSV. FOR NOW, WILL NOT
FORMALLY INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
REASSESS THIS THREAT WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  86  64  86 /  10  30  30  20
SHOALS        64  87  65  87 /  10  20  30  20
VINEMONT      63  87  64  87 /  10  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  61  85  62  85 /  10  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   63  85  63  86 /  10  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    62  84  63  85 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 141726 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
A VERY PLEASANT MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
50S. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WHEN LOW CLOUDS ENCOMPASSED
ALL OF THE CWFA, SUNSHINE ABOUNDS IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA,
WITH ONLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS (AOB
900FT). AS A RESULT, TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SLOW TO RISE THERE THIS
MORNING, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ARE STILL LINGERING IN THESE LOCATIONS
AT THIS HOUR.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
KEEPING NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE DEPARTED SFC FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MORE RELAXED TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO GUSTS ~20KTS AREN`T
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, WE LIKELY WON`T SEE ANYTHING MUCH HIGHER THAN A
10KT WIND THIS AFTERNOON (AT BEST).

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE, SEVERAL CHANGES WERE WARRANTED GIVEN
THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. AFTN HIGHS
WERE DECREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES (NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM),
AND AS SUCH, HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED AS WELL. ASIDE FROM
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA (SUNNY WEST, CLOUDY EAST), NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

WILL SEND UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TAF SITES BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY EAST OF KHSV. FOR NOW, WILL NOT
FORMALLY INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
REASSESS THIS THREAT WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 141726 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
A VERY PLEASANT MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
50S. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WHEN LOW CLOUDS ENCOMPASSED
ALL OF THE CWFA, SUNSHINE ABOUNDS IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA,
WITH ONLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS (AOB
900FT). AS A RESULT, TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SLOW TO RISE THERE THIS
MORNING, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ARE STILL LINGERING IN THESE LOCATIONS
AT THIS HOUR.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
KEEPING NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE DEPARTED SFC FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MORE RELAXED TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO GUSTS ~20KTS AREN`T
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, WE LIKELY WON`T SEE ANYTHING MUCH HIGHER THAN A
10KT WIND THIS AFTERNOON (AT BEST).

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE, SEVERAL CHANGES WERE WARRANTED GIVEN
THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. AFTN HIGHS
WERE DECREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES (NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM),
AND AS SUCH, HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED AS WELL. ASIDE FROM
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA (SUNNY WEST, CLOUDY EAST), NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

WILL SEND UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TAF SITES BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY EAST OF KHSV. FOR NOW, WILL NOT
FORMALLY INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
REASSESS THIS THREAT WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 141506 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY PLEASANT MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
50S. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WHEN LOW CLOUDS ENCOMPASSED
ALL OF THE CWFA, SUNSHINE ABOUNDS IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA,
WITH ONLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS (AOB
900FT). AS A RESULT, TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SLOW TO RISE THERE THIS
MORNING, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ARE STILL LINGERING IN THESE LOCATIONS
AT THIS HOUR.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
KEEPING NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE DEPARTED SFC FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MORE RELAXED TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO GUSTS ~20KTS AREN`T
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, WE LIKELY WON`T SEE ANYTHING MUCH HIGHER THAN A
10KT WIND THIS AFTERNOON (AT BEST).

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE, SEVERAL CHANGES WERE WARRANTED GIVEN
THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. AFTN HIGHS
WERE DECREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES (NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM),
AND AS SUCH, HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED AS WELL. ASIDE FROM
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA (SUNNY WEST, CLOUDY EAST), NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

WILL SEND UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 141506 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY PLEASANT MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
50S. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WHEN LOW CLOUDS ENCOMPASSED
ALL OF THE CWFA, SUNSHINE ABOUNDS IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA,
WITH ONLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS (AOB
900FT). AS A RESULT, TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SLOW TO RISE THERE THIS
MORNING, AND A FEW LOWER 60S ARE STILL LINGERING IN THESE LOCATIONS
AT THIS HOUR.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
KEEPING NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE DEPARTED SFC FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MORE RELAXED TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO GUSTS ~20KTS AREN`T
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, WE LIKELY WON`T SEE ANYTHING MUCH HIGHER THAN A
10KT WIND THIS AFTERNOON (AT BEST).

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE, SEVERAL CHANGES WERE WARRANTED GIVEN
THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. AFTN HIGHS
WERE DECREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES (NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM),
AND AS SUCH, HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED AS WELL. ASIDE FROM
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA (SUNNY WEST, CLOUDY EAST), NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

WILL SEND UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 141113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE TN VALLEY FINALLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WERE STILL JUST
NE AND SW OF OUR CWA. THUS WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TODAY SO RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS. THE OLD CDFNT TO OUR SOUTH PLUS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER WAVE/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITIES NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX...BUT SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE WITH THE CHC AND
TIMING OF PCPN. NAM KEEPS TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY WITH CHC OF PCPN
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. ECMWF KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN MAINLY DURING THE MRNG AND TAPERING OFF BY AFTN...
AND GONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PCPN EAST OF I65
TUESDAY MRNG...THEN DRY BY NOON. IN A NUTSHELL WILL GO WITH THE DRIER
GFS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN IF AND WHEN WE WILL SEE
ANY PCPN ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE TO NO
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 141113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE TN VALLEY FINALLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WERE STILL JUST
NE AND SW OF OUR CWA. THUS WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TODAY SO RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS. THE OLD CDFNT TO OUR SOUTH PLUS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER WAVE/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITIES NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX...BUT SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE WITH THE CHC AND
TIMING OF PCPN. NAM KEEPS TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY WITH CHC OF PCPN
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. ECMWF KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN MAINLY DURING THE MRNG AND TAPERING OFF BY AFTN...
AND GONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PCPN EAST OF I65
TUESDAY MRNG...THEN DRY BY NOON. IN A NUTSHELL WILL GO WITH THE DRIER
GFS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN IF AND WHEN WE WILL SEE
ANY PCPN ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE TO NO
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 140658
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE TN VALLEY FINALLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WERE STILL JUST
NE AND SW OF OUR CWA. THUS WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TODAY SO RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS. THE OLD CDFNT TO OUR SOUTH PLUS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER WAVE/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITIES NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX...BUT SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE WITH THE CHC AND
TIMING OF PCPN. NAM KEEPS TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY WITH CHC OF PCPN
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. ECMWF KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN MAINLY DURING THE MRNG AND TAPERING OFF BY AFTN...
AND GONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PCPN EAST OF I65
TUESDAY MRNG...THEN DRY BY NOON. IN A NUTSHELL WILL GO WITH THE DRIER
GFS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN IF AND WHEN WE WILL SEE
ANY PCPN ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE TO NO
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DISPERSED MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...WITH BASES LIKELY
AOA 6 KFT. MILD DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LGT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  63  86  64 /  10  10  30  30
SHOALS        83  64  87  65 /  10  10  20  30
VINEMONT      83  63  87  64 /  10  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  82  61  85  62 /  10  10  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   82  63  85  63 /  10  10  40  30
FORT PAYNE    82  62  84  63 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 140658
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE TN VALLEY FINALLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WERE STILL JUST
NE AND SW OF OUR CWA. THUS WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TODAY SO RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS. THE OLD CDFNT TO OUR SOUTH PLUS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER WAVE/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITIES NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX...BUT SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE WITH THE CHC AND
TIMING OF PCPN. NAM KEEPS TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY WITH CHC OF PCPN
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. ECMWF KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN MAINLY DURING THE MRNG AND TAPERING OFF BY AFTN...
AND GONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PCPN EAST OF I65
TUESDAY MRNG...THEN DRY BY NOON. IN A NUTSHELL WILL GO WITH THE DRIER
GFS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN IF AND WHEN WE WILL SEE
ANY PCPN ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE TO NO
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DISPERSED MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...WITH BASES LIKELY
AOA 6 KFT. MILD DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LGT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  63  86  64 /  10  10  30  30
SHOALS        83  64  87  65 /  10  10  20  30
VINEMONT      83  63  87  64 /  10  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  82  61  85  62 /  10  10  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   82  63  85  63 /  10  10  40  30
FORT PAYNE    82  62  84  63 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 140433 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1133 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
MILD CAA CONTINUES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE EAST MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70F. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE THIS EVENING AS A GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAVE
OCCURRED. NEVERTHELESS...NORTH WINDS ARND 5-10 MPH AND THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK ARE HINDERING TEMP FALLS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL ARND 5-10 DEGREES. SOME EROSION OF THIS
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
GRADUALLY VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO WEST. WITH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
THICKEST AND WITH THE BEST LIFT CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED IN OUR
WESTERN AREAS...CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THERE LONGER.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN
SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CONTINUED WEAK CAA AND EXPECTATIONS OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE RESULT IS A MORE GENERAL HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COOLEST IN THE NORTH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DISPERSED MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...WITH BASES LIKELY
AOA 6 KFT. MILD DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LGT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 140433 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1133 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 910 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
MILD CAA CONTINUES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE EAST MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70F. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE THIS EVENING AS A GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAVE
OCCURRED. NEVERTHELESS...NORTH WINDS ARND 5-10 MPH AND THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK ARE HINDERING TEMP FALLS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL ARND 5-10 DEGREES. SOME EROSION OF THIS
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
GRADUALLY VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO WEST. WITH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
THICKEST AND WITH THE BEST LIFT CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED IN OUR
WESTERN AREAS...CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THERE LONGER.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN
SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CONTINUED WEAK CAA AND EXPECTATIONS OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE RESULT IS A MORE GENERAL HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COOLEST IN THE NORTH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DISPERSED MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...WITH BASES LIKELY
AOA 6 KFT. MILD DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LGT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 140210 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
910 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE MAINLY TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MILD CAA CONTINUES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE EAST MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70F. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE THIS EVENING AS A GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAVE
OCCURRED. NEVERTHELESS...NORTH WINDS ARND 5-10 MPH AND THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK ARE HINDERING TEMP FALLS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL ARND 5-10 DEGREES. SOME EROSION OF THIS
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
GRADUALLY VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO WEST. WITH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
THICKEST AND WITH THE BEST LIFT CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED IN OUR
WESTERN AREAS...CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THERE LONGER.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN
SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CONTINUED WEAK CAA AND EXPECTATIONS OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE RESULT IS A MORE GENERAL HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COOLEST IN THE NORTH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH BASES ARND 2-3 KFT WILL PRESENT
THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY TO LIFT GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES INTO THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING
MVFR BASES TO LINGER AT KHSV THRU ~09Z AT KHSV AND ~12Z AT KMSL. ONLY
MDT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. N-NE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LGT
NORTHERLY TOMORROW.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 140210 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
910 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE MAINLY TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MILD CAA CONTINUES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE EAST MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70F. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A LITTLE THIS EVENING AS A GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAVE
OCCURRED. NEVERTHELESS...NORTH WINDS ARND 5-10 MPH AND THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK ARE HINDERING TEMP FALLS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL ARND 5-10 DEGREES. SOME EROSION OF THIS
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
GRADUALLY VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO WEST. WITH CLOUDS CURRENTLY
THICKEST AND WITH THE BEST LIFT CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED IN OUR
WESTERN AREAS...CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THERE LONGER.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN
SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CONTINUED WEAK CAA AND EXPECTATIONS OF
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE RESULT IS A MORE GENERAL HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COOLEST IN THE NORTH.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH BASES ARND 2-3 KFT WILL PRESENT
THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY TO LIFT GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES INTO THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING
MVFR BASES TO LINGER AT KHSV THRU ~09Z AT KHSV AND ~12Z AT KMSL. ONLY
MDT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. N-NE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LGT
NORTHERLY TOMORROW.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 132343 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
643 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPS ONLY RISING GENERALLY INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WHICH HAS BEEN AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT TODAY IN MOVING A
FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TOWARD MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS IS STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY GEORGIA ON MONDAY ALONG
AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY MONDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING INVOLVING THE AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY
AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW
WITH THE DRIER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE INVOLVING KEEPING THE MID-UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
AREA. MODEL TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH BASES ARND 2-3 KFT WILL PRESENT
THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD
BASES ARE LIKELY TO LIFT GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES INTO THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECTING
MVFR BASES TO LINGER AT KHSV THRU ~09Z AT KHSV AND ~12Z AT KMSL. ONLY
MDT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. N-NE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LGT
NORTHERLY TOMORROW.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 131950
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPS ONLY RISING GENERALLY INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WHICH HAS BEEN AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT TODAY IN MOVING A
FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TOWARD MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS IS STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY GEORGIA ON MONDAY ALONG
AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY MONDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING INVOLVING THE AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY
AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW
WITH THE DRIER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE INVOLVING KEEPING THE MID-UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
AREA. MODEL TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT,
IF NOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES ARE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARND 15-20KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT (CEILINGS FINALLY ABOVE 3KFT). THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IF LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR
NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  63  86 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        58  84  64  87 /  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      60  85  64  87 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  57  84  62  85 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   61  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  40
FORT PAYNE    60  85  63  84 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 131950
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE CONTINUING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPS ONLY RISING GENERALLY INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WHICH HAS BEEN AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM MODEL IS MORE IN LINE WITH
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT TODAY IN MOVING A
FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TOWARD MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS IS STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY GEORGIA ON MONDAY ALONG
AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY MONDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING INVOLVING THE AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY
AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW
WITH THE DRIER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE INVOLVING KEEPING THE MID-UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
AREA. MODEL TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT,
IF NOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES ARE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARND 15-20KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT (CEILINGS FINALLY ABOVE 3KFT). THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IF LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR
NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  63  86 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        58  84  64  87 /  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      60  85  64  87 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  57  84  62  85 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   61  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  40
FORT PAYNE    60  85  63  84 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 131737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
A DREARY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
GA, AND THE FRONT DRAPED W/SW BACK INTO THE WRN GOMEX.
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO MO/AR. THERE ARE A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY, BUT OVERALL,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS USHERING
IN COOLER/DRIER AIR, WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT TIMES
(GUSTS ARE GENERALLY AOB 20KTS). DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 6OS SE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN W TN (CO-LOCATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER).

A FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING. AFTN HIGHS WERE DECREASED A FEW DEGREES (NOW TOPPING OUT IN
THE 72-76F RANGE) AND AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECM MOS WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
ERRING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP
OVER NW AL, INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED, AND WITH THE CAA IN PLACE,
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AT BEST. LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY
DRIZZLE WERE ALSO FORMALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS (IN LIEU OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION),
WITH A DRY BUT CLOUDY AFTN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WIND/WIND GUST GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

WILL RESEND OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT,
IF NOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES ARE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARND 15-20KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT (CEILINGS FINALLY ABOVE 3KFT). THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IF LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR
NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

OLD CDFNT NOW OVER SRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL GA AND FINALLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POP FOR THE MRNG HOURS ONLY ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU MONDAY. AFTER THIS MRNG SLIGHT
CHC OF SHRA...MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWA THRU SUNDAY...AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY.

BY MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (NO SVR WX EXPECTED)...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I65. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LOW POP AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF FCST (TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...A WEAK CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG
LOWS ARND 60. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 131737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
A DREARY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
GA, AND THE FRONT DRAPED W/SW BACK INTO THE WRN GOMEX.
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO MO/AR. THERE ARE A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY, BUT OVERALL,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS USHERING
IN COOLER/DRIER AIR, WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT TIMES
(GUSTS ARE GENERALLY AOB 20KTS). DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 6OS SE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN W TN (CO-LOCATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER).

A FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING. AFTN HIGHS WERE DECREASED A FEW DEGREES (NOW TOPPING OUT IN
THE 72-76F RANGE) AND AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECM MOS WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
ERRING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP
OVER NW AL, INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED, AND WITH THE CAA IN PLACE,
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AT BEST. LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY
DRIZZLE WERE ALSO FORMALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS (IN LIEU OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION),
WITH A DRY BUT CLOUDY AFTN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WIND/WIND GUST GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

WILL RESEND OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU AT LEAST 00Z TONIGHT,
IF NOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES ARE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARND 15-20KTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT (CEILINGS FINALLY ABOVE 3KFT). THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IF LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR
NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDS
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

OLD CDFNT NOW OVER SRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL GA AND FINALLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POP FOR THE MRNG HOURS ONLY ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU MONDAY. AFTER THIS MRNG SLIGHT
CHC OF SHRA...MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWA THRU SUNDAY...AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY.

BY MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (NO SVR WX EXPECTED)...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I65. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LOW POP AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF FCST (TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...A WEAK CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG
LOWS ARND 60. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 131444 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
944 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DREARY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
GA, AND THE FRONT DRAPED W/SW BACK INTO THE WRN GOMEX.
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO MO/AR. THERE ARE A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY, BUT OVERALL,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS USHERING
IN COOLER/DRIER AIR, WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT TIMES
(GUSTS ARE GENERALLY AOB 20KTS). DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 6OS SE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN W TN (CO-LOCATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER).

A FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING. AFTN HIGHS WERE DECREASED A FEW DEGREES (NOW TOPPING OUT IN
THE 72-76F RANGE) AND AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECM MOS WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
ERRING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP
OVER NW AL, INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED, AND WITH THE CAA IN PLACE,
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AT BEST. LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY
DRIZZLE WERE ALSO FORMALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS (IN LIEU OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION),
WITH A DRY BUT CLOUDY AFTN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WIND/WIND GUST GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

WILL RESEND OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...AREA RADARS ARE CLR THIS EARLY SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LOW MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE COUPLED WITH MINIMAL SFC
HEATING...THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW IN DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS WHEN LATENT HEATING EFFECTS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. VFR CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING AS
NLY FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 131444 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
944 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DREARY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
GA, AND THE FRONT DRAPED W/SW BACK INTO THE WRN GOMEX.
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO MO/AR. THERE ARE A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY, BUT OVERALL,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWRD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS USHERING
IN COOLER/DRIER AIR, WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT TIMES
(GUSTS ARE GENERALLY AOB 20KTS). DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 6OS SE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN W TN (CO-LOCATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER).

A FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING. AFTN HIGHS WERE DECREASED A FEW DEGREES (NOW TOPPING OUT IN
THE 72-76F RANGE) AND AS A RESULT, HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECM MOS WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
ERRING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EVEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP
OVER NW AL, INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED, AND WITH THE CAA IN PLACE,
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES AT BEST. LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY
DRIZZLE WERE ALSO FORMALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS (IN LIEU OF SHOWERS
GIVEN THE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION),
WITH A DRY BUT CLOUDY AFTN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WIND/WIND GUST GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

WILL RESEND OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...AREA RADARS ARE CLR THIS EARLY SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LOW MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE COUPLED WITH MINIMAL SFC
HEATING...THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW IN DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS WHEN LATENT HEATING EFFECTS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. VFR CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING AS
NLY FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 131150 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

OLD CDFNT NOW OVER SRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL GA AND FINALLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POP FOR THE MRNG HOURS ONLY ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU MONDAY. AFTER THIS MRNG SLIGHT
CHC OF SHRA...MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWA THRU SUNDAY...AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY.

BY MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (NO SVR WX EXPECTED)...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I65. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LOW POP AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF FCST (TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...A WEAK CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG
LOWS ARND 60. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AREA RADARS ARE CLR THIS EARLY SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LOW MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE COUPLED WITH MINIMAL SFC
HEATING...THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW IN DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS WHEN LATENT HEATING EFFECTS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. VFR CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING AS
NLY FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 131150 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

OLD CDFNT NOW OVER SRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL GA AND FINALLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POP FOR THE MRNG HOURS ONLY ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU MONDAY. AFTER THIS MRNG SLIGHT
CHC OF SHRA...MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWA THRU SUNDAY...AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY.

BY MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (NO SVR WX EXPECTED)...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I65. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LOW POP AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF FCST (TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...A WEAK CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG
LOWS ARND 60. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AREA RADARS ARE CLR THIS EARLY SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LOW MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE COUPLED WITH MINIMAL SFC
HEATING...THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW IN DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS WHEN LATENT HEATING EFFECTS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. VFR CONDS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING AS
NLY FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 130801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

OLD CDFNT NOW OVER SRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL GA AND FINALLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POP FOR THE MRNG HOURS ONLY ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU MONDAY. AFTER THIS MRNG SLIGHT
CHC OF SHRA...MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWA THRU SUNDAY...AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY.

BY MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (NO SVR WX EXPECTED)...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I65. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LOW POP AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF FCST (TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...A WEAK CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG
LOWS ARND 60. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR ALREADY AT KMSL...AND
BELIEVE THEY WILL GET THERE SOON AT KHSV PER LATEST UAH CEILOMETER
DATA. STILL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS/VIS AT BOTH
SITES ROUGHLY 09-15Z. MIXING AHEAD OF A 2ND FRONT WILL LIFT CIGS TO
MVFR BY MID-MORNING AND ABOVE 2000FT AROUND MIDDAY. THAT FRONT WILL
HELP BREAK UP CLOUDS AT KMSL BEFORE 06Z/14...BUT MAY NOT HAPPEN
BEFORE 06Z AT KHSV. N/NNE WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15KT BY MID- MORNING
AND STAY THERE MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  59  85  63 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        78  58  84  63 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      78  60  85  63 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  75  57  84  61 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   78  61  85  62 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    79  60  85  62 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 130801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

OLD CDFNT NOW OVER SRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL GA AND FINALLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAD A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POP FOR THE MRNG HOURS ONLY ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU MONDAY. AFTER THIS MRNG SLIGHT
CHC OF SHRA...MODELS SHOW BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CWA THRU SUNDAY...AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY.

BY MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE (NO SVR WX EXPECTED)...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I65. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LOW POP AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF FCST (TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY)...A WEAK CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG
LOWS ARND 60. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR ALREADY AT KMSL...AND
BELIEVE THEY WILL GET THERE SOON AT KHSV PER LATEST UAH CEILOMETER
DATA. STILL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS/VIS AT BOTH
SITES ROUGHLY 09-15Z. MIXING AHEAD OF A 2ND FRONT WILL LIFT CIGS TO
MVFR BY MID-MORNING AND ABOVE 2000FT AROUND MIDDAY. THAT FRONT WILL
HELP BREAK UP CLOUDS AT KMSL BEFORE 06Z/14...BUT MAY NOT HAPPEN
BEFORE 06Z AT KHSV. N/NNE WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15KT BY MID- MORNING
AND STAY THERE MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  59  85  63 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        78  58  84  63 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      78  60  85  63 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  75  57  84  61 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   78  61  85  62 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    79  60  85  62 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 130511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 939 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/
AT 02Z/9 PM CDT, THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE
I-59 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S IN THE SHOALS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
THIS ALSO MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS,
WHICH STRETCHES ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
THIS HAPPENS TO MARK THE LOCATION OF A DEEPER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY DRIFTED
EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA, LEAVING THE HUN CWFA MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE UNDER THE
STRATUS, AND WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUB-1000 FOOT
CEILINGS, DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME
UPSTREAM REPORTS OF FOG. SO WHILE THE 20 POP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD DRIZZLE AND FOG. FEW IF ANY OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED, ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR ALREADY AT KMSL...AND
BELIEVE THEY WILL GET THERE SOON AT KHSV PER LATEST UAH CEILOMETER
DATA. STILL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS/VIS AT BOTH
SITES ROUGHLY 09-15Z. MIXING AHEAD OF A 2ND FRONT WILL LIFT CIGS TO
MVFR BY MID-MORNING AND ABOVE 2000FT AROUND MIDDAY. THAT FRONT WILL
HELP BREAK UP CLOUDS AT KMSL BEFORE 06Z/14...BUT MAY NOT HAPPEN
BEFORE 06Z AT KHSV. N/NNE WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15KT BY MID- MORNING
AND STAY THERE MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 130511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 939 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/
AT 02Z/9 PM CDT, THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE
I-59 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S IN THE SHOALS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
THIS ALSO MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS,
WHICH STRETCHES ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
THIS HAPPENS TO MARK THE LOCATION OF A DEEPER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY DRIFTED
EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA, LEAVING THE HUN CWFA MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE UNDER THE
STRATUS, AND WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUB-1000 FOOT
CEILINGS, DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME
UPSTREAM REPORTS OF FOG. SO WHILE THE 20 POP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD DRIZZLE AND FOG. FEW IF ANY OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED, ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR ALREADY AT KMSL...AND
BELIEVE THEY WILL GET THERE SOON AT KHSV PER LATEST UAH CEILOMETER
DATA. STILL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS/VIS AT BOTH
SITES ROUGHLY 09-15Z. MIXING AHEAD OF A 2ND FRONT WILL LIFT CIGS TO
MVFR BY MID-MORNING AND ABOVE 2000FT AROUND MIDDAY. THAT FRONT WILL
HELP BREAK UP CLOUDS AT KMSL BEFORE 06Z/14...BUT MAY NOT HAPPEN
BEFORE 06Z AT KHSV. N/NNE WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15KT BY MID- MORNING
AND STAY THERE MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DARK.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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