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000
FXUS64 KHUN 210505 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 742 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RAPID CLEARING TREND DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO FROM "MOSTLY CLOUDY"
THIS EVENING TO CLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CALM WINDS REPORTED AND TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWLY INTO
THE 50S TO L60S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TN
RIVER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCLUDING THE KMSL AREA. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFT 08Z THRU 13Z.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
FORECAST THRU TUESDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 210505 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 742 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RAPID CLEARING TREND DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO FROM "MOSTLY CLOUDY"
THIS EVENING TO CLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CALM WINDS REPORTED AND TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWLY INTO
THE 50S TO L60S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TN
RIVER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCLUDING THE KMSL AREA. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFT 08Z THRU 13Z.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
FORECAST THRU TUESDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210042 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
742 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR CLEARING TREND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RAPID CLEARING TREND DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO FROM "MOSTLY CLOUDY"
THIS EVENING TO CLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CALM WINDS REPORTED AND TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWLY INTO
THE 50S TO L60S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 611 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z. LIKE MONDAY
MORNING, THE FG IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSL WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CONDS FROM 09-13Z. ATTM, HAVE LEFT THE FG OUT OF THE KHSV FORECAST
PENDING FURTHER EVALUATION. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TAKING PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND VFR WX.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 210042 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
742 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR CLEARING TREND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RAPID CLEARING TREND DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO FROM "MOSTLY CLOUDY"
THIS EVENING TO CLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CALM WINDS REPORTED AND TEMPS ARE FALLING SLOWLY INTO
THE 50S TO L60S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 611 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z. LIKE MONDAY
MORNING, THE FG IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSL WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CONDS FROM 09-13Z. ATTM, HAVE LEFT THE FG OUT OF THE KHSV FORECAST
PENDING FURTHER EVALUATION. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TAKING PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND VFR WX.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 202311 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D RETURNS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED UPON PREVIOUS TRENDING THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A THIRD DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z
SUNDAY. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z. LIKE MONDAY
MORNING, THE FG IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSL WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CONDS FROM 09-13Z. ATTM, HAVE LEFT THE FG OUT OF THE KHSV FORECAST
PENDING FURTHER EVALUATION. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TAKING PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND VFR WX.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 202311 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D RETURNS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED UPON PREVIOUS TRENDING THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A THIRD DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z
SUNDAY. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z. LIKE MONDAY
MORNING, THE FG IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSL WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CONDS FROM 09-13Z. ATTM, HAVE LEFT THE FG OUT OF THE KHSV FORECAST
PENDING FURTHER EVALUATION. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TAKING PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND VFR WX.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201849
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D RETURNS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED UPON PREVIOUS TRENDING THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A THIRD DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z
SUNDAY. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    49  73  44  67 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        48  73  44  68 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      49  73  44  68 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  47  71  41  65 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   48  73  43  68 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    47  73  42  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201849
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D RETURNS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED UPON PREVIOUS TRENDING THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A THIRD DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z
SUNDAY. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    49  73  44  67 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        48  73  44  68 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      49  73  44  68 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  47  71  41  65 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   48  73  43  68 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    47  73  42  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AT
BOTH TERMINALS (WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE), BUT VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMSL AGAIN, WITH MVFR CONDS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MORNING, WITH VSBYS APPROACHING AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THRU 13Z. KHSV IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES WITH FOG
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES
AFTER 13-14Z TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AT
BOTH TERMINALS (WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE), BUT VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMSL AGAIN, WITH MVFR CONDS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MORNING, WITH VSBYS APPROACHING AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THRU 13Z. KHSV IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY ISSUES WITH FOG
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES
AFTER 13-14Z TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201511 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS
HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWFA. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
LINGERS ALONG THE TN RIVER AND INTO THE DEKALB VALLEY IN NE AL, BUT
THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE SHORTLY
(EXCEPT IN NE AL, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 11AM).

UPSTREAM, AN APPROACHING H5 DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA (THANKS TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 850MB PER THE
MORNING OHX RAOB), A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, WILL RETAIN THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ALREADY IN
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE TODAY: ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL/EXPECTED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN TODAY.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201130 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR THINNING
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201130 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z...BEFORE EARLY MORNING BR/FG BEGINS TO DIMINISH. VFR CONDS ARE
OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...BEFORE THINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR THINNING
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 201011
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT CONFIRM THAT
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE
ONLY APPEARS TO WARRANT AN SPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE
EVENT THAT AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z AND
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN BE EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE DATA ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A THICKENING DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SUBCLOUD
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 POP AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL
MOTIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO CUTOFF IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A THICKER DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
INVADE THE REGION OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH CENTER OF CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE SINKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER/MID 40S
AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSUMING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT AS CENTER OF RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
WITH PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
MODEL CYCLES SHOWING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH
AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LIFT WILL BE
STRONG BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SILENT 10
POP AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THIS POINT. A MODEST WARMING TREND
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
SHOALS        71  48  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
VINEMONT      71  49  73  44 /  10  10  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  69  47  71  41 /  10  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   72  48  73  43 /  10  10  10   0
FORT PAYNE    72  47  73  42 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 200458 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200458 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TN RIVER THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KHSV AND
KMSL FROM 10-13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 200127 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER UPWARD FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 200127 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
827 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER UPWARD FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WERE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS TN AND THE NERN
PORTIONS OF AL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
THIS, BUT FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN EXITING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS IN SRN TN HAVE DIPPED INTO THE U40S, WITH
L-M50S IN NRN AL EXCEPT FOR THE HSV AREA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND IS
KEEPING THE TEMP AT 59F AS OF THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THE BUFKIT FOG
TOOLS INDICATE FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR NOTORIOUS VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM OHIO THRU LOUISIANA SHIFTING THRU THE REGION AS
WELL. GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 192302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY BR DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
KHSV AND KMSL WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY FROM 10-13Z. SWLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WITH A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  72  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        43  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      45  71  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  70  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   45  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    43  71  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. ONLY A SCATTERED
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    44  72  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        43  73  48  72 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      45  71  49  72 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  70  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   45  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    43  71  46  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU
THIS EVENING, WHEN SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191427 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191427 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CWFA. A FEW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A DEPARTING
TROF EXITING THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AT THE SFC, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE OH
VALLEY, KEEPING LIGHT E/NE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA YESTERDAY IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX.

FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE: NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191128 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191128 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190840
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  44  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        68  43  73  48 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      68  45  71  49 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  43  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  45  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    69  43  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190840
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WERE FLOWING IN A WNW-ESE MOTION
ACROSS THE REGION...GOING INTO BROAD TROUGHING SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC...WAS SLIDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST...AS
WEAK/BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST SLOWLY BUILT EASTWARD. A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED IN A NW-SE FASHION ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO...NOW EXTENDED FROM NE FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT TO THE REGION...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...ONLY RISING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S (AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY ARE 73/74 IN MUSCLE SHOALS
AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY). WITH THE HIGH NEARING THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON MORNING...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAWN.
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AS A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE SITUATED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. GIVEN SLIM MOISTURE AMOUNTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. DAILY HIGHS FOR THE MID WEEK
SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OF INTEREST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THIS FORECAST)...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEK. WHERE IT GOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z/00Z GFS TAKE
IT EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WEST OF BERMUDA...WHILE THE NEW EC
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  44  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        68  43  73  48 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      68  45  71  49 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  65  43  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  45  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    69  43  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT N-NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190121 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER TRENDS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190121 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST SKY COVER TRENDS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS TELL THE STORY THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SC
DROPPING SEWD WAS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. ANOTHER AREA OF SC IN NRN TN
WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME PER SHORT TERM MODELS. WE HAVE DROPPED SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS AS RESULT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS POINT. NORTHERLY FLOW BECAME A BIT GUSTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS SO IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS, BUT SHOULD
DECLINE AS AN INVERSION LAYER DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 182327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
FEW-SCT CLDS AT 050AGL DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD WITH LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSES/SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTING A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...A
MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEGATE WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY
BE A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECASTED
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. DESPITE A
COOL START TO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BUT 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 10-12C RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH
WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANOTHER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S. BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION. DESPITE A GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM /PWATS ONLY REACHING 0.6-0.9 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/ AND
WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 10 POP IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FROST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF WINDS
MANAGE TO DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DISAGREE WITH EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NW GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS AS IF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS A LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  67  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        45  68  43  73 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      45  68  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  65  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    43  69  44  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS THE DRY COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE COOLER EFFECTS TODAY IN
OUR HIGHS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW UP IN THE NE WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY TO REINFORCE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE N WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. SUNSHINE WILL
COMBAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TEMPS AS OBS SHOW TEMPS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS CIRRUS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN FOR THIS PATTERN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS THE DRY COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE COOLER EFFECTS TODAY IN
OUR HIGHS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW UP IN THE NE WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY TO REINFORCE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE N WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. SUNSHINE WILL
COMBAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TEMPS AS OBS SHOW TEMPS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS CIRRUS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN FOR THIS PATTERN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KHSV AND KMSL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS WILL DIMINISH
AT 00Z.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181544 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS THE DRY COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE COOLER EFFECTS TODAY IN
OUR HIGHS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW UP IN THE NE WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY TO REINFORCE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE N WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. SUNSHINE WILL
COMBAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TEMPS AS OBS SHOW TEMPS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS CIRRUS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN FOR THIS PATTERN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181544 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS THE DRY COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE COOLER EFFECTS TODAY IN
OUR HIGHS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW UP IN THE NE WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY TO REINFORCE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE N WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. SUNSHINE WILL
COMBAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TEMPS AS OBS SHOW TEMPS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS CIRRUS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN FOR THIS PATTERN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181544 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS THE DRY COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE COOLER EFFECTS TODAY IN
OUR HIGHS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW UP IN THE NE WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY TO REINFORCE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE N WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. SUNSHINE WILL
COMBAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TEMPS AS OBS SHOW TEMPS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS CIRRUS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN FOR THIS PATTERN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181544 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS THE DRY COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE COOLER EFFECTS TODAY IN
OUR HIGHS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW UP IN THE NE WILL PROVIDE
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION TODAY TO REINFORCE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE N WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. SUNSHINE WILL
COMBAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TEMPS AS OBS SHOW TEMPS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS CIRRUS MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT SO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN FOR THIS PATTERN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181123 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ARE XPCTED TO INCREASE NEAR 10KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AS WELL...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WNW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180839
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING...
WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AT BOTH MSL/HSV.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW
EXPECTED BY 06Z/MSL AND 07Z/HSV. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS
BY 16Z...WITH SCT/BKN COLD AIR STRATOCU IN THE 3-5 KFT LAYER
CONTINUING THRU LATE AFTN. WINDS WILL VEER TO NNE AND DIMINISH TO
ARND 7 KTS BY TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  43  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        70  43  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      70  44  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  67  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   67  43  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    69  42  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180839
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT AS OF THIS
WRITING (PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) EXTENDED APPROX FROM
SOUTH OF FT PAYNE...TO CULLMAN AND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. WINDS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE BECOMING NW-N IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...NO WEATHER OF
CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED.

ON A BIGGER VIEW...A SORT OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
ALASKA WAS INDUCING TROUGHING...THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. EAST OF THAT...RIDGING WAS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WESTERN QUEBEC...AND OVER THE DAVIS STRAITS...
BRINGING TROUGHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...HURRICANE GONZALO WAS SPINNING AND
MOVING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM BERMUDA...AFTER DIRECTLY
IMPACTING THE ISLAND DURING FRIDAY.

A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
70 IN MOST SPOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WERE COMMONPLACE. TONIGHT...WE SHOULD CHILL INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH AN UPPER 30 OR TWO NOT UNLIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. A SLACKENING GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
FOR LOWS MON MORNING...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS...TO UPPER 40S RIDGETOPS. A WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LATE MON INTO TUE TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MID WEEK. WITH AN EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF (SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING MON NIGHT)...THE OTHER GUIDANCE STAYED DRY. STAYED WITH A
DRY TREND THIS GO AROUND...BUT GIVEN THE EC`S TRACK RECORD...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING...
WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AT BOTH MSL/HSV.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW
EXPECTED BY 06Z/MSL AND 07Z/HSV. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS
BY 16Z...WITH SCT/BKN COLD AIR STRATOCU IN THE 3-5 KFT LAYER
CONTINUING THRU LATE AFTN. WINDS WILL VEER TO NNE AND DIMINISH TO
ARND 7 KTS BY TOMORROW EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  43  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        70  43  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      70  44  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  67  43  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   67  43  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    69  42  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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