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000
FXUS64 KHUN 271145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SRN MS RVR VALLEY WILL
BRING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE COVERING MOST OF NRN AL
THIS MRNG AND WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AT KMSL ARND 19Z AND KHSV BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SRN MS RVR VALLEY WILL
BRING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE COVERING MOST OF NRN AL
THIS MRNG AND WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AT KMSL ARND 19Z AND KHSV BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 271145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SRN MS RVR VALLEY WILL
BRING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE COVERING MOST OF NRN AL
THIS MRNG AND WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AT KMSL ARND 19Z AND KHSV BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271145
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SRN MS RVR VALLEY WILL
BRING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE COVERING MOST OF NRN AL
THIS MRNG AND WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AT KMSL ARND 19Z AND KHSV BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270831
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
WIND...MVFR BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 16Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  66  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
SHOALS        83  65  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
VINEMONT      81  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  80  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   81  65  83  66 /  60  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    80  65  82  65 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270831
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
WIND...MVFR BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 16Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  66  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
SHOALS        83  65  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
VINEMONT      81  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  80  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   81  65  83  66 /  60  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    80  65  82  65 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270831
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THE TN VALLEY HAS INDUCED MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SUPERSATURATED SOUTHERN PLAINS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS OK INTO
AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION
WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER, THINNING OF THESE
CLOUDS IS LIKELY BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE. IF THESE CLOUDS DO BREAK,
THEN INSOLATION ALONG WITH ALREADY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OCCUR. CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES BTWN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
MODEL THE MOST BULLISH WITH INSTABILITY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND
ANTECEDENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT IS
FORECAST MEAN THAT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER QUESTION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT NE AL MAY HAVE GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NOT ENCROACH AS QUICKLY AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. SO, HAVE
INTRODUCED A GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THAT AREA.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE LAST THING TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S FORECAST IS
THAT THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE INDUCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE REAR INFLOW JETS, PRODUCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS S MO/AR. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE TN VALLEY (TO THE NW) WHICH WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY TRANSLATE TO
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS ENDING LATE ON THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, BY FRIDAY, MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND SUBSIDENCE.
IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE MID
80S (CLOSE TO NORMAL).

THEN, A CANADIAN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES OF
THE POLAR JET WILL EJECT A SHEARED TROUGH ACROSS THE N PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED OR
DISSIPATES ON MONDAY (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BUT WILL STILL
KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE MID-UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING AROUND THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TN VALLEY, DEPENDING ON ITS TRAJECTORY.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
WIND...MVFR BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 16Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  66  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
SHOALS        83  65  85  67 /  50  30  40  20
VINEMONT      81  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  80  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   81  65  83  66 /  60  30  40  20
FORT PAYNE    80  65  82  65 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270459
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING AND LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ISOLD. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TS IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE
AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. THERE IS
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE CUMULUS
STREETS REMAIN NOTICEABLE ON THE LAST VIS IMAGES AND OUTSIDE OUR WEST
WINDOW. LOW CLOUDS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH M60S
OUTLYING AREAS AND U60S IN THE HSV URBAN AREAS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
WIND...MVFR BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 16Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270459
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING AND LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ISOLD. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TS IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE
AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. THERE IS
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE CUMULUS
STREETS REMAIN NOTICEABLE ON THE LAST VIS IMAGES AND OUTSIDE OUR WEST
WINDOW. LOW CLOUDS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH M60S
OUTLYING AREAS AND U60S IN THE HSV URBAN AREAS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
WIND...MVFR BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 16Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270459
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING AND LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ISOLD. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TS IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE
AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. THERE IS
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE CUMULUS
STREETS REMAIN NOTICEABLE ON THE LAST VIS IMAGES AND OUTSIDE OUR WEST
WINDOW. LOW CLOUDS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH M60S
OUTLYING AREAS AND U60S IN THE HSV URBAN AREAS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
WIND...MVFR BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 16Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270125 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
825 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING AND LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ISOLD. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TS IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE
AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. THERE IS
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE CUMULUS
STREETS REMAIN NOTICEABLE ON THE LAST VIS IMAGES AND OUTSIDE OUR WEST
WINDOW. LOW CLOUDS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH M60S
OUTLYING AREAS AND U60S IN THE HSV URBAN AREAS.

AK


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... SCT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA PSBL THRU TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13Z THRU 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OR
LIFTING. SCATTERED TSRA PRODUCING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 270125 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
825 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING AND LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ISOLD. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TS IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE
AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. THERE IS
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE CUMULUS
STREETS REMAIN NOTICEABLE ON THE LAST VIS IMAGES AND OUTSIDE OUR WEST
WINDOW. LOW CLOUDS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH M60S
OUTLYING AREAS AND U60S IN THE HSV URBAN AREAS.

AK


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... SCT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA PSBL THRU TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13Z THRU 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OR
LIFTING. SCATTERED TSRA PRODUCING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 270125 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
825 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON THE EVENING SOUNDING AND LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ISOLD. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TS IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE
AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. THERE IS
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE CUMULUS
STREETS REMAIN NOTICEABLE ON THE LAST VIS IMAGES AND OUTSIDE OUR WEST
WINDOW. LOW CLOUDS MAY YET DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET WITH M60S
OUTLYING AREAS AND U60S IN THE HSV URBAN AREAS.

AK


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS... SCT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA PSBL THRU TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13Z THRU 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OR
LIFTING. SCATTERED TSRA PRODUCING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 262303 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... SCT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA PSBL THRU TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13Z THRU 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OR
LIFTING. SCATTERED TSRA PRODUCING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 262303 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... SCT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA PSBL THRU TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13Z THRU 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OR
LIFTING. SCATTERED TSRA PRODUCING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262303 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... SCT CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA PSBL THRU TONIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY BR MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13Z THRU 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OR
LIFTING. SCATTERED TSRA PRODUCING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 262010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR HSV AND MSL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO 5SM BR GROUPING AT
BOTH TERMINALS FROM 10Z-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME
FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  84  65  85 /  20  40  30  30
SHOALS        65  84  64  85 /  20  50  30  30
VINEMONT      64  82  64  83 /  20  40  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  64  81  64  83 /  20  40  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   64  82  64  83 /  30  40  30  30
FORT PAYNE    64  81  63  82 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 262010
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS TUE AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...THX IN
PART TO THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE
DECAYING MCS OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. TWO SEPARATE
LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE MANAGED TO EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ONE GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MID TN AND ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM NW GA INTO SE AL.
THE BAND IMPACTING MID TN COULD VERY WELL SKIRT PORTIONS OF SRN MID
TN INTO EXTREME NE AL BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS DONE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND EVEN SO ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE QUICK. LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HRS...AS THE UPPER WAVE OR
SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.
THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ABOVE H7
BEGINS TO ADVECT SWWD INTO THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WED THOUGH MAY
TREND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WED...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO KEEP THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BELOW THE NUMEROUS CAT. LATENT HEATING EFFECTS
WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS MECH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TO
GO ALONG WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THIS GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE GULF REGION. OVERALL TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A
BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR HSV AND MSL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO 5SM BR GROUPING AT
BOTH TERMINALS FROM 10Z-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME
FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  84  65  85 /  20  40  30  30
SHOALS        65  84  64  85 /  20  50  30  30
VINEMONT      64  82  64  83 /  20  40  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  64  81  64  83 /  20  40  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   64  82  64  83 /  30  40  30  30
FORT PAYNE    64  81  63  82 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 261739 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING QLCS MOVED INTO NW AL THIS MORNING AROUND
12Z AND IS NOW ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWERS REMAIN
WITH THE LIGHTNINGS ACTIVITY REMAINING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT.

PRECIP IS SLOW MOVING AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING WINDS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO STORM MOVEMENT. WITH S TO SW WINDS...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER WILL DETERMINE ON
HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHIELD BEHIND
THE LINE HAVE MOSTLY ERODED BUT THE CLOUDS REMAIN HAVING AN EFFECT ON
THE TEMPS. AHEAD OF THE LINE...TEMPS ARE RISING TOWARDS 80 UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THIS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ON THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY. INCREASED THE TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF I-65...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED
THE PRECIP TRENDS.

WE WILL SEE HOW WELL WE CAN RECOVER WITH THIS BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST THAN THE
GFS...PROVIDING CAPE VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. GFS WANTS TO BRING
CAPE VALUES UP TOWARDS 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT STILL LINGERS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE
CONSERVATIVESOLUTION. BOTH BRING IN 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF ~20KTS.
COULD GET MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES
VALUES RANGING FROM -5 TO -8. THE 12Z NAM SOUNDING BRINGS IN A MID
LAYER OF DRY AIR...AND IF THAT IS REACHED A POTENTIAL OF MICROBURSTS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE REDSTONE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD
OUR PWATS AT 1.7 INCHES. NW AL HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THUS
FAR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN...RIVERS/STREAMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RESPOND BUT WILL STILL MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING
ISSUES WITH STORMS TRAINING IN LATER TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR HSV AND MSL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO 5SM BR GROUPING AT
BOTH TERMINALS FROM 10Z-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME
FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 261739 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING QLCS MOVED INTO NW AL THIS MORNING AROUND
12Z AND IS NOW ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWERS REMAIN
WITH THE LIGHTNINGS ACTIVITY REMAINING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT.

PRECIP IS SLOW MOVING AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING WINDS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO STORM MOVEMENT. WITH S TO SW WINDS...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER WILL DETERMINE ON
HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHIELD BEHIND
THE LINE HAVE MOSTLY ERODED BUT THE CLOUDS REMAIN HAVING AN EFFECT ON
THE TEMPS. AHEAD OF THE LINE...TEMPS ARE RISING TOWARDS 80 UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THIS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ON THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY. INCREASED THE TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF I-65...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED
THE PRECIP TRENDS.

WE WILL SEE HOW WELL WE CAN RECOVER WITH THIS BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST THAN THE
GFS...PROVIDING CAPE VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. GFS WANTS TO BRING
CAPE VALUES UP TOWARDS 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT STILL LINGERS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE
CONSERVATIVESOLUTION. BOTH BRING IN 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF ~20KTS.
COULD GET MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES
VALUES RANGING FROM -5 TO -8. THE 12Z NAM SOUNDING BRINGS IN A MID
LAYER OF DRY AIR...AND IF THAT IS REACHED A POTENTIAL OF MICROBURSTS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE REDSTONE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD
OUR PWATS AT 1.7 INCHES. NW AL HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THUS
FAR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN...RIVERS/STREAMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RESPOND BUT WILL STILL MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING
ISSUES WITH STORMS TRAINING IN LATER TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR HSV AND MSL. AFTER 01Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO 5SM BR GROUPING AT
BOTH TERMINALS FROM 10Z-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME
FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261618 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING QLCS MOVED INTO NW AL THIS MORNING AROUND
12Z AND IS NOW ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWERS REMAIN
WITH THE LIGHTNINGS ACTIVITY REMAINING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT.

PRECIP IS SLOW MOVING AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING WINDS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO STORM MOVEMENT. WITH S TO SW WINDS...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER WILL DETERMINE ON
HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHIELD BEHIND
THE LINE HAVE MOSTLY ERODED BUT THE CLOUDS REMAIN HAVING AN EFFECT ON
THE TEMPS. AHEAD OF THE LINE...TEMPS ARE RISING TOWARDS 80 UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THIS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ON THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY. INCREASED THE TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF I-65...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED
THE PRECIP TRENDS.

WE WILL SEE HOW WELL WE CAN RECOVER WITH THIS BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST THAN THE
GFS...PROVIDING CAPE VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. GFS WANTS TO BRING
CAPE VALUES UP TOWARDS 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT STILL LINGERS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE CONSERATIVE
SOLUTION. BOTH BRING IN 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF ~20KTS. COULD GET
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES VALUES RANGING
FROM -5 TO -8. THE 12Z NAM SOUNDING BRINGS IN A MID LAYER OF DRY
AIR...AND IF THAT IS REACHED A POTENTIAL OF MICROBURSTS IS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE REDSTONE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD
OUR PWATS AT 1.7 INCHES. NW AL HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THUS
FAR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH BREAKS INBETWEEN...RIVERS/STREAMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RESPOND BUT WILL STILL MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING
ISSUES WITH STORMS TRAINING IN LATER TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 728 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS REGION...
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS PSBL THRU 26/14Z ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LGT SHRA. PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON REMNANT LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOWER MISS VALLEY LAST NIGHT -- WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTN AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALTHOUGH LEADING EDGE OF
LINE WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE...WIDESPREAD TRAILING PCPN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING COND AT MSL
BTWN 13-20Z AND HSV BTWN 19-02Z. STORMS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS LINE SAGS SEWD...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE
TO THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL DURING PCPN...WITH VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF PCPN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SSW AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BUT SHOULD BE SE AT 5-10 KTS OTHERWISE.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WET SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THIS FORECAST AS
WEAK IMPULSES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW IMPACT THE TN VALLEY. A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE
GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
MEANWHILE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PREVAILS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE FIRST ONE IN THE SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A
SEVERE QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS QLCS HAS ACTUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CUTOFF BY THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE QLCS OVER
CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL LA AND NW GULF COAST LINE. AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVAILING SW TO S FLOW ALOFT, MUCH OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM AND
DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BUT THIS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT THE REGION
WILL REALIZE ~1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. HOWEVER, THOUGH THIS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT/THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK WITH 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES BTWN 20-25KTS (JUST TO SPECIFY ONE PARAMETER). DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RISE WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ACTING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLUMN ABOVE ~900 MB. THE TIMING FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A STORM MODE OF DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT,
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS (FROM THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL), VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN THE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL, THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN EXIT THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING (BTWN 00Z-06Z) WHICH SHOULD MARK THE END
OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. DID KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN YET ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS AS TUESDAY: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.

FURTHER WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY AFFORD TX AND OK AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRANSLATING TO
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING BOTH DAYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A MEAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THOUGH MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THIS
UPPER FLOW PATTERN, HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE ALSO KEPT MORE
SEASONABLE MID 80S DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AND DEEP WAA.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 261618 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING QLCS MOVED INTO NW AL THIS MORNING AROUND
12Z AND IS NOW ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWERS REMAIN
WITH THE LIGHTNINGS ACTIVITY REMAINING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT.

PRECIP IS SLOW MOVING AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING WINDS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO STORM MOVEMENT. WITH S TO SW WINDS...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED IN AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER WILL DETERMINE ON
HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP SHIELD BEHIND
THE LINE HAVE MOSTLY ERODED BUT THE CLOUDS REMAIN HAVING AN EFFECT ON
THE TEMPS. AHEAD OF THE LINE...TEMPS ARE RISING TOWARDS 80 UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THIS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ON THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY. INCREASED THE TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF I-65...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED
THE PRECIP TRENDS.

WE WILL SEE HOW WELL WE CAN RECOVER WITH THIS BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST THAN THE
GFS...PROVIDING CAPE VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. GFS WANTS TO BRING
CAPE VALUES UP TOWARDS 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT STILL LINGERS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE CONSERATIVE
SOLUTION. BOTH BRING IN 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF ~20KTS. COULD GET
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES VALUES RANGING
FROM -5 TO -8. THE 12Z NAM SOUNDING BRINGS IN A MID LAYER OF DRY
AIR...AND IF THAT IS REACHED A POTENTIAL OF MICROBURSTS IS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE REDSTONE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD
OUR PWATS AT 1.7 INCHES. NW AL HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THUS
FAR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH BREAKS INBETWEEN...RIVERS/STREAMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RESPOND BUT WILL STILL MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING
ISSUES WITH STORMS TRAINING IN LATER TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 728 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS REGION...
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS PSBL THRU 26/14Z ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LGT SHRA. PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON REMNANT LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOWER MISS VALLEY LAST NIGHT -- WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTN AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALTHOUGH LEADING EDGE OF
LINE WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE...WIDESPREAD TRAILING PCPN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING COND AT MSL
BTWN 13-20Z AND HSV BTWN 19-02Z. STORMS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS LINE SAGS SEWD...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE
TO THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL DURING PCPN...WITH VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF PCPN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SSW AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BUT SHOULD BE SE AT 5-10 KTS OTHERWISE.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WET SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THIS FORECAST AS
WEAK IMPULSES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW IMPACT THE TN VALLEY. A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE
GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
MEANWHILE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PREVAILS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE FIRST ONE IN THE SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A
SEVERE QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS QLCS HAS ACTUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CUTOFF BY THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE QLCS OVER
CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL LA AND NW GULF COAST LINE. AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVAILING SW TO S FLOW ALOFT, MUCH OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM AND
DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BUT THIS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT THE REGION
WILL REALIZE ~1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. HOWEVER, THOUGH THIS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT/THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK WITH 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES BTWN 20-25KTS (JUST TO SPECIFY ONE PARAMETER). DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RISE WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ACTING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLUMN ABOVE ~900 MB. THE TIMING FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A STORM MODE OF DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT,
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS (FROM THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL), VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN THE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL, THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN EXIT THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING (BTWN 00Z-06Z) WHICH SHOULD MARK THE END
OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. DID KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN YET ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS AS TUESDAY: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.

FURTHER WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY AFFORD TX AND OK AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRANSLATING TO
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING BOTH DAYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A MEAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THOUGH MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THIS
UPPER FLOW PATTERN, HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE ALSO KEPT MORE
SEASONABLE MID 80S DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AND DEEP WAA.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261228
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
728 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

A WET SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THIS FORECAST AS WEAK
IMPULSES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IMPACT THE TN VALLEY. A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE
GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
MEANWHILE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PREVAILS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

THE FIRST ONE IN THE SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A
SEVERE QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS QLCS HAS ACTUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CUTOFF BY THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE QLCS OVER
CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL LA AND NW GULF COAST LINE. AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVAILING SW TO S FLOW ALOFT, MUCH OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM AND
DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BUT THIS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT THE REGION
WILL REALIZE ~1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. HOWEVER, THOUGH THIS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT/THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK WITH 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES BTWN 20-25KTS (JUST TO SPECIFY ONE PARAMETER). DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RISE WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ACTING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLUMN ABOVE ~900 MB. THE TIMING FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A STORM MODE OF DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT,
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS (FROM THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL), VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN THE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL, THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN EXIT THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING (BTWN 00Z-06Z) WHICH SHOULD MARK THE END
OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. DID KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN YET ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS AS TUESDAY: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.

FURTHER WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY AFFORD TX AND OK AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRANSLATING TO
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING BOTH DAYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A MEAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THOUGH MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THIS
UPPER FLOW PATTERN, HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE ALSO KEPT MORE
SEASONABLE MID 80S DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AND DEEP WAA.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS REGION...
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS PSBL THRU 26/14Z ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LGT SHRA. PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON REMNANT LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOWER MISS VALLEY LAST NIGHT -- WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTN AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALTHOUGH LEADING EDGE OF
LINE WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE...WIDESPREAD TRAILING PCPN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING COND AT MSL
BTWN 13-20Z AND HSV BTWN 19-02Z. STORMS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS LINE SAGS SEWD...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE
TO THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL DURING PCPN...WITH VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF PCPN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SSW AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BUT SHOULD BE SE AT 5-10 KTS OTHERWISE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 261228
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
728 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

A WET SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THIS FORECAST AS WEAK
IMPULSES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IMPACT THE TN VALLEY. A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE
GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
MEANWHILE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PREVAILS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

THE FIRST ONE IN THE SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A
SEVERE QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS QLCS HAS ACTUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CUTOFF BY THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE QLCS OVER
CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL LA AND NW GULF COAST LINE. AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVAILING SW TO S FLOW ALOFT, MUCH OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM AND
DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BUT THIS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT THE REGION
WILL REALIZE ~1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. HOWEVER, THOUGH THIS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT/THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK WITH 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES BTWN 20-25KTS (JUST TO SPECIFY ONE PARAMETER). DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RISE WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ACTING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLUMN ABOVE ~900 MB. THE TIMING FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A STORM MODE OF DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT,
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS (FROM THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL), VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN THE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL, THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN EXIT THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING (BTWN 00Z-06Z) WHICH SHOULD MARK THE END
OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. DID KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN YET ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS AS TUESDAY: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.

FURTHER WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY AFFORD TX AND OK AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRANSLATING TO
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING BOTH DAYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A MEAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THOUGH MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THIS
UPPER FLOW PATTERN, HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE ALSO KEPT MORE
SEASONABLE MID 80S DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AND DEEP WAA.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS REGION...
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS PSBL THRU 26/14Z ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LGT SHRA. PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON REMNANT LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOWER MISS VALLEY LAST NIGHT -- WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTN AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALTHOUGH LEADING EDGE OF
LINE WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE...WIDESPREAD TRAILING PCPN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING COND AT MSL
BTWN 13-20Z AND HSV BTWN 19-02Z. STORMS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS LINE SAGS SEWD...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE
TO THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL DURING PCPN...WITH VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF PCPN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SSW AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BUT SHOULD BE SE AT 5-10 KTS OTHERWISE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 261228
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
728 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

A WET SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THIS FORECAST AS WEAK
IMPULSES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IMPACT THE TN VALLEY. A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE
GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
MEANWHILE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PREVAILS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

THE FIRST ONE IN THE SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A
SEVERE QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS QLCS HAS ACTUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CUTOFF BY THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE QLCS OVER
CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL LA AND NW GULF COAST LINE. AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVAILING SW TO S FLOW ALOFT, MUCH OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM AND
DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BUT THIS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT THE REGION
WILL REALIZE ~1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. HOWEVER, THOUGH THIS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT/THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK WITH 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES BTWN 20-25KTS (JUST TO SPECIFY ONE PARAMETER). DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RISE WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ACTING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLUMN ABOVE ~900 MB. THE TIMING FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A STORM MODE OF DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT,
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS (FROM THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL), VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN THE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL, THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN EXIT THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING (BTWN 00Z-06Z) WHICH SHOULD MARK THE END
OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. DID KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN YET ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS AS TUESDAY: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.

FURTHER WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY AFFORD TX AND OK AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRANSLATING TO
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING BOTH DAYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A MEAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THOUGH MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THIS
UPPER FLOW PATTERN, HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE ALSO KEPT MORE
SEASONABLE MID 80S DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AND DEEP WAA.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS REGION...
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS PSBL THRU 26/14Z ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LGT SHRA. PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON REMNANT LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FROM
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED LOWER MISS VALLEY LAST NIGHT -- WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AND INTENSIFY THRU THE AFTN AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALTHOUGH LEADING EDGE OF
LINE WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE...WIDESPREAD TRAILING PCPN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING COND AT MSL
BTWN 13-20Z AND HSV BTWN 19-02Z. STORMS MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS LINE SAGS SEWD...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE
TO THE S/E OF BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL DURING PCPN...WITH VFR CONDS IN WAKE OF PCPN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SSW AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BUT SHOULD BE SE AT 5-10 KTS OTHERWISE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260809
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
309 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WET SUMMER LIKE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THIS FORECAST AS WEAK
IMPULSES ENVELOPED WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IMPACT THE TN VALLEY. A MEAN TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS/MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE BROAD RIDGING EXISTS JUST OFF THE
GA/SC/E FL COAST. THIS MEAN TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING OVER TX/OK.
MEANWHILE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PREVAILS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST ONE IN THE SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AND SATURATED ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT A
SEVERE QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS QLCS HAS ACTUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CUTOFF BY THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE QLCS OVER
CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL LA AND NW GULF COAST LINE. AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVAILING SW TO S FLOW ALOFT, MUCH OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM AND
DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BUT THIS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT THE REGION
WILL REALIZE ~1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. HOWEVER, THOUGH THIS WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT/THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER ANOTHER
QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK WITH 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES BTWN 20-25KTS (JUST TO SPECIFY ONE PARAMETER). DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RISE WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ACTING TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE SATURATED COLUMN ABOVE ~900 MB. THE TIMING FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A STORM MODE OF DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. AT THIS POINT,
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS (FROM THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL), VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN THE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL, THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN EXIT THE TN
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING (BTWN 00Z-06Z) WHICH SHOULD MARK THE END
OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. DID KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITHIN THE SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAKLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN YET ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS AS TUESDAY: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.

FURTHER WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY AFFORD TX AND OK AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRANSLATING TO
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING BOTH DAYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A MEAN TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THOUGH MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THIS
UPPER FLOW PATTERN, HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE ALSO KEPT MORE
SEASONABLE MID 80S DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AND DEEP WAA.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THIS MORNING INCLUDING TEMPO IFR CIGS AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV. A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST VCTS ATTM. REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS ALSO
CONTINGENT ON MORNING PRECIP TRENDS, SO MAINTAINED VCTS AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT 15-20KT
THRU THE DAY.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    79  67  84  67 /  90  50  50  30
SHOALS        79  67  84  67 /  90  50  50  30
VINEMONT      78  67  81  66 /  90  50  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  78  66  81  66 /  90  50  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   79  66  81  65 /  90  50  60  30
FORT PAYNE    78  66  80  64 /  90  50  60  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THIS MORNING INCLUDING TEMPO IFR CIGS AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV. A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST VCTS ATTM. REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS ALSO
CONTINGENT ON MORNING PRECIP TRENDS, SO MAINTAINED VCTS AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT 15-20KT
THRU THE DAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 260538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THIS MORNING INCLUDING TEMPO IFR CIGS AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV. A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST VCTS ATTM. REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS ALSO
CONTINGENT ON MORNING PRECIP TRENDS, SO MAINTAINED VCTS AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT 15-20KT
THRU THE DAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THIS MORNING INCLUDING TEMPO IFR CIGS AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV. A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST VCTS ATTM. REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS ALSO
CONTINGENT ON MORNING PRECIP TRENDS, SO MAINTAINED VCTS AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT 15-20KT
THRU THE DAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 260538 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THIS MORNING INCLUDING TEMPO IFR CIGS AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV. A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST VCTS ATTM. REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS ALSO
CONTINGENT ON MORNING PRECIP TRENDS, SO MAINTAINED VCTS AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV THRU THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT 15-20KT
THRU THE DAY.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260100 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TO DELAY CHC OF TSRA UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND LOWER NOW-09Z POP TO 20PCT
FOR ISOLD -SHRA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
TSRA AND SHRA HAVE EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF HSV AND MSL VCNTYS.
PROB OF REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS QUITE LOW.
LOWER CIGS (MVFR CATEGORY) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08-10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN AL ~10-11Z
INCLUDING KMSL AND TRACK EAST INTO THE KHSV VCNTY BY ~15Z. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
TSRA WILL BE MAINTAINED, SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE DETERMINED BY PRECIP
TRENDS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 260100 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TO DELAY CHC OF TSRA UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND LOWER NOW-09Z POP TO 20PCT
FOR ISOLD -SHRA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST AND LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT, HAVE DELAYED THE CHC OF TSRA
UNTIL AFTER 09Z. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 11Z OR AFTER,
MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE QLCS.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, THAT MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TOWARD MORNING.
VERY MOIST SFC OBS COMING IN THIS EVENING ALSO POINT TO SOME
CONSIDERATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG. WILL
STICK MORE WITH THE STRATUS IDEA AT THIS POINT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
TSRA AND SHRA HAVE EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF HSV AND MSL VCNTYS.
PROB OF REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS QUITE LOW.
LOWER CIGS (MVFR CATEGORY) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08-10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN AL ~10-11Z
INCLUDING KMSL AND TRACK EAST INTO THE KHSV VCNTY BY ~15Z. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
TSRA WILL BE MAINTAINED, SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE DETERMINED BY PRECIP
TRENDS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 252259 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
TSRA AND SHRA HAVE EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF HSV AND MSL VCNTYS.
PROB OF REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS QUITE LOW.
LOWER CIGS (MVFR CATEGORY) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08-10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN AL ~10-11Z
INCLUDING KMSL AND TRACK EAST INTO THE KHSV VCNTY BY ~15Z. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
TSRA WILL BE MAINTAINED, SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE DETERMINED BY PRECIP
TRENDS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252259 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
TSRA AND SHRA HAVE EXITED WELL TO THE EAST OF HSV AND MSL VCNTYS.
PROB OF REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS QUITE LOW.
LOWER CIGS (MVFR CATEGORY) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 08-10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHRA AND TSRA IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN AL ~10-11Z
INCLUDING KMSL AND TRACK EAST INTO THE KHSV VCNTY BY ~15Z. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
TSRA WILL BE MAINTAINED, SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE DETERMINED BY PRECIP
TRENDS THAT OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 252050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL
CONTINUE A TREND OF INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED T-STORM WERE ORIENTED IN A SSW TO
NNE LINE FROM E OF THE MS DELTA TO S-CENTRAL KY. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED VIS/
CIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
IS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING TUE MORNING...WITH MORE TEMPO
REDUCTION OF VIS/CIG VALUES FROM HEAVY RAINS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  80  66  84 /  40  80  50  40
SHOALS        66  80  65  83 /  50  80  50  40
VINEMONT      66  79  65  81 /  50  80  50  40
FAYETTEVILLE  65  79  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
ALBERTVILLE   65  80  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
FORT PAYNE    65  79  65  80 /  40  80  50  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 252050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL
CONTINUE A TREND OF INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED T-STORM WERE ORIENTED IN A SSW TO
NNE LINE FROM E OF THE MS DELTA TO S-CENTRAL KY. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED VIS/
CIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
IS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING TUE MORNING...WITH MORE TEMPO
REDUCTION OF VIS/CIG VALUES FROM HEAVY RAINS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  80  66  84 /  40  80  50  40
SHOALS        66  80  65  83 /  50  80  50  40
VINEMONT      66  79  65  81 /  50  80  50  40
FAYETTEVILLE  65  79  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
ALBERTVILLE   65  80  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
FORT PAYNE    65  79  65  80 /  40  80  50  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 252050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL
CONTINUE A TREND OF INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED T-STORM WERE ORIENTED IN A SSW TO
NNE LINE FROM E OF THE MS DELTA TO S-CENTRAL KY. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED VIS/
CIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
IS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING TUE MORNING...WITH MORE TEMPO
REDUCTION OF VIS/CIG VALUES FROM HEAVY RAINS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  80  66  84 /  40  80  50  40
SHOALS        66  80  65  83 /  50  80  50  40
VINEMONT      66  79  65  81 /  50  80  50  40
FAYETTEVILLE  65  79  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
ALBERTVILLE   65  80  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
FORT PAYNE    65  79  65  80 /  40  80  50  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251748 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1112 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
NNE ACROSS NW AL. THIS LINE WAS SEVERE WHEN IT WAS STILL IN MS WHERE
GREATER SHEAR AND HELICITY WAS PRESENT.

CAPE VALUES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH THIS MORNING AND DO NOT LOOK TO BE
THROUGHOUT TODAY EITHER...WITH VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE...ALREADY STARTING TO MIX DOWN A
FEW GUSTS 10-15KTS AROUND THE AREA. A SMALL CAP AROUND 900MB SEEMS TO
HOLD IN THE SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SFC CAPE LOW. LOOKING
AT THETA E AS WELL...800-700MB IS WHERE WE GET MOST OF OUR LIFT
TODAY. THROUGH TODAY...THERE ARE BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30KTS LOWERING
AS TIMES GETS CLOSER TO 00Z.

A STRATUS DECK IS STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS RANGING
FROM 2500FT IN NE AL TO 1000FT IN NW AL. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
OUR TEMPS TODAY. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY BUT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF US WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
TODAY.

WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA...PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5
INCHES TODAY. WITH TRAINING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY IN NW AL...WILL MONITOR
FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WIND FIELD FLOW TODAY IS NEARLY PARALLEL SO THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST VERY QUICKLY.

THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE HUN CWA TODAY. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN BY MOST AT SOME POINT TODAY. PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL
CONTINUE A TREND OF INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED T-STORM WERE ORIENTED IN A SSW TO
NNE LINE FROM E OF THE MS DELTA TO S-CENTRAL KY. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED VIS/
CIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
IS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING TUE MORNING...WITH MORE TEMPO
REDUCTION OF VIS/CIG VALUES FROM HEAVY RAINS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 251612 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1112 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
NNE ACROSS NW AL. THIS LINE WAS SEVERE WHEN IT WAS STILL IN MS WHERE
GREATER SHEAR AND HELICITY WAS PRESENT.

CAPE VALUES HAVE NOT BEEN HIGH THIS MORNING AND DO NOT LOOK TO BE
THROUGHOUT TODAY EITHER...WITH VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE...ALREADY STARTING TO MIX DOWN A
FEW GUSTS 10-15KTS AROUND THE AREA. A SMALL CAP AROUND 900MB SEEMS TO
HOLD IN THE SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SFC CAPE LOW. LOOKING
AT THETA E AS WELL...800-700MB IS WHERE WE GET MOST OF OUR LIFT
TODAY. THROUGH TODAY...THERE ARE BULK SHEAR VALUES 25-30KTS LOWERING
AS TIMES GETS CLOSER TO 00Z.

A STRATUS DECK IS STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS RANGING
FROM 2500FT IN NE AL TO 1000FT IN NW AL. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
OUR TEMPS TODAY. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY BUT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF US WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
TODAY.

WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA...PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5
INCHES TODAY. WITH TRAINING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY IN NW AL...WILL MONITOR
FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WIND FIELD FLOW TODAY IS NEARLY PARALLEL SO THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST VERY QUICKLY.

THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE HUN CWA TODAY. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN BY MOST AT SOME POINT TODAY. PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...BAND OF MOD/HVY SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO
IMPACT MAINLY NW ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD THRU REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR MSL THRU 25/17Z AND HSV BTWN
15-19Z. STRATUS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE 2500-4000 FT LAYER
WITHIN BAND OF PCPN...AND ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL ALSO BE
PSBL IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THIS IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ATTM. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TEMPORARILY SCATTER LATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN BAND SHIFTS
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP BY 26/02Z
IN VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR TSRA BTWN 08-12Z...AND VCTS/CB WAS INCLUDED FOR
THIS PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...PREVAILING SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SSE AT 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE QUASI-PERMA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT HAS BROUGHT
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST. AS A RESULT, A WET PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DRY WEEKEND CAME TO AN ABRUPT END AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING.

SINCE THE TN VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, AND BECAUSE THE PREVAILING MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (WITHIN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE REGION), NOT EXPECTING A LARGE SCALE FLASH FLOODING
EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENT BTWN 850-500 HPA) GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN DISCRETE
CELLS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS FORMING WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS (I.E. LOW WIND SHEAR) ONLY
EXPECTING BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTEX CROSSES THE
TN VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME VERY WEAK
UNDULATIONS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SATURATED SOUTHERLY FLOW, CHANCE
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE PRIMARY BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEM
THERE. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO SEND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN MCS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TN
VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATING. DEPENDING ON ITS
TRAJECTORY THE TN VALLEY MAY BE STABILIZED BY ITS DEBRIS CLOUDS OR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES OVER FAR NW AL. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE VARIANT WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MID-
LEVEL WIND FIELD SOLUTIONS ARE VARIANT AS WELL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE OR
WEAKEN WIND SHEAR. THOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
WIND FIELD AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, THE OTHER MODELS PRESENT
DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THESE FIELDS (MAINLY WEAKER) AND MCS
TRAJECTORY. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR ALL OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IS
PAINTED MAINLY BY THE GFS SOLUTION, HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THAT DAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AND SOMETIMES WIDE VARIATIONS IN POPS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE MODELS` STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN THIS REGIME. THEN, SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN, ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE S PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

THE QUASI-PERMA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT HAS BROUGHT
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST. AS A RESULT, A WET PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DRY WEEKEND CAME TO AN ABRUPT END AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING.

SINCE THE TN VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, AND BECAUSE THE PREVAILING MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (WITHIN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE REGION), NOT EXPECTING A LARGE SCALE FLASH FLOODING
EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENT BTWN 850-500 HPA) GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN DISCRETE
CELLS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS FORMING WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS (I.E. LOW WIND SHEAR) ONLY
EXPECTING BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTEX CROSSES THE
TN VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME VERY WEAK
UNDULATIONS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SATURATED SOUTHERLY FLOW, CHANCE
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE PRIMARY BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEM
THERE. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO SEND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN MCS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TN
VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATING. DEPENDING ON ITS
TRAJECTORY THE TN VALLEY MAY BE STABILIZED BY ITS DEBRIS CLOUDS OR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES OVER FAR NW AL. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE VARIANT WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MID-
LEVEL WIND FIELD SOLUTIONS ARE VARIANT AS WELL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE OR
WEAKEN WIND SHEAR. THOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
WIND FIELD AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, THE OTHER MODELS PRESENT
DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THESE FIELDS (MAINLY WEAKER) AND MCS
TRAJECTORY. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR ALL OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IS
PAINTED MAINLY BY THE GFS SOLUTION, HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THAT DAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AND SOMETIMES WIDE VARIATIONS IN POPS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE MODELS` STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN THIS REGIME. THEN, SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN, ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE S PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...BAND OF MOD/HVY SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO
IMPACT MAINLY NW ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD THRU REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR MSL THRU 25/17Z AND HSV BTWN
15-19Z. STRATUS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE 2500-4000 FT LAYER
WITHIN BAND OF PCPN...AND ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL ALSO BE
PSBL IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THIS IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ATTM. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TEMPORARILY SCATTER LATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN BAND SHIFTS
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP BY 26/02Z
IN VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR TSRA BTWN 08-12Z...AND VCTS/CB WAS INCLUDED FOR
THIS PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...PREVAILING SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SSE AT 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 251154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

THE QUASI-PERMA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT HAS BROUGHT
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST. AS A RESULT, A WET PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DRY WEEKEND CAME TO AN ABRUPT END AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING.

SINCE THE TN VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, AND BECAUSE THE PREVAILING MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (WITHIN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE REGION), NOT EXPECTING A LARGE SCALE FLASH FLOODING
EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENT BTWN 850-500 HPA) GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN DISCRETE
CELLS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS FORMING WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS (I.E. LOW WIND SHEAR) ONLY
EXPECTING BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTEX CROSSES THE
TN VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME VERY WEAK
UNDULATIONS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SATURATED SOUTHERLY FLOW, CHANCE
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE PRIMARY BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEM
THERE. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO SEND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN MCS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TN
VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATING. DEPENDING ON ITS
TRAJECTORY THE TN VALLEY MAY BE STABILIZED BY ITS DEBRIS CLOUDS OR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES OVER FAR NW AL. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE VARIANT WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MID-
LEVEL WIND FIELD SOLUTIONS ARE VARIANT AS WELL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE OR
WEAKEN WIND SHEAR. THOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
WIND FIELD AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, THE OTHER MODELS PRESENT
DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THESE FIELDS (MAINLY WEAKER) AND MCS
TRAJECTORY. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR ALL OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IS
PAINTED MAINLY BY THE GFS SOLUTION, HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THAT DAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AND SOMETIMES WIDE VARIATIONS IN POPS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE MODELS` STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN THIS REGIME. THEN, SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN, ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE S PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...BAND OF MOD/HVY SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO
IMPACT MAINLY NW ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD THRU REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR MSL THRU 25/17Z AND HSV BTWN
15-19Z. STRATUS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE 2500-4000 FT LAYER
WITHIN BAND OF PCPN...AND ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL ALSO BE
PSBL IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THIS IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ATTM. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TEMPORARILY SCATTER LATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN BAND SHIFTS
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP BY 26/02Z
IN VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR TSRA BTWN 08-12Z...AND VCTS/CB WAS INCLUDED FOR
THIS PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...PREVAILING SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SSE AT 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 251154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

THE QUASI-PERMA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT HAS BROUGHT
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST. AS A RESULT, A WET PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DRY WEEKEND CAME TO AN ABRUPT END AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING.

SINCE THE TN VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, AND BECAUSE THE PREVAILING MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (WITHIN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE REGION), NOT EXPECTING A LARGE SCALE FLASH FLOODING
EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENT BTWN 850-500 HPA) GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN DISCRETE
CELLS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS FORMING WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS (I.E. LOW WIND SHEAR) ONLY
EXPECTING BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTEX CROSSES THE
TN VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME VERY WEAK
UNDULATIONS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SATURATED SOUTHERLY FLOW, CHANCE
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE PRIMARY BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEM
THERE. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO SEND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN MCS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TN
VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATING. DEPENDING ON ITS
TRAJECTORY THE TN VALLEY MAY BE STABILIZED BY ITS DEBRIS CLOUDS OR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES OVER FAR NW AL. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE VARIANT WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MID-
LEVEL WIND FIELD SOLUTIONS ARE VARIANT AS WELL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE OR
WEAKEN WIND SHEAR. THOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
WIND FIELD AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, THE OTHER MODELS PRESENT
DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THESE FIELDS (MAINLY WEAKER) AND MCS
TRAJECTORY. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR ALL OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IS
PAINTED MAINLY BY THE GFS SOLUTION, HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THAT DAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AND SOMETIMES WIDE VARIATIONS IN POPS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE MODELS` STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN THIS REGIME. THEN, SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN, ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE S PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...BAND OF MOD/HVY SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO
IMPACT MAINLY NW ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD THRU REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA/VCTS AS PREVAILING WX COND FOR MSL THRU 25/17Z AND HSV BTWN
15-19Z. STRATUS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE 2500-4000 FT LAYER
WITHIN BAND OF PCPN...AND ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL ALSO BE
PSBL IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THIS IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ATTM. LOW
CLOUDS WILL TEMPORARILY SCATTER LATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN BAND SHIFTS
EWD INTO NE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP BY 26/02Z
IN VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR TSRA BTWN 08-12Z...AND VCTS/CB WAS INCLUDED FOR
THIS PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...PREVAILING SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SSE AT 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 250844
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE QUASI-PERMA LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT HAS BROUGHT
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST. AS A RESULT, A WET PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DRY WEEKEND CAME TO AN ABRUPT END AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING.

SINCE THE TN VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, AND BECAUSE THE PREVAILING MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (WITHIN A SERIES OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE REGION), NOT EXPECTING A LARGE SCALE FLASH FLOODING
EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PRESENT BTWN 850-500 HPA) GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN DISCRETE
CELLS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS FORMING WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS (I.E. LOW WIND SHEAR) ONLY
EXPECTING BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTEX CROSSES THE
TN VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME VERY WEAK
UNDULATIONS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SATURATED SOUTHERLY FLOW, CHANCE
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AROUND THE PRIMARY BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEM
THERE. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO SEND WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN MCS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TN
VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATING. DEPENDING ON ITS
TRAJECTORY THE TN VALLEY MAY BE STABILIZED BY ITS DEBRIS CLOUDS OR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ENCROACHES OVER FAR NW AL. HOWEVER,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE VARIANT WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MID-
LEVEL WIND FIELD SOLUTIONS ARE VARIANT AS WELL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE OR
WEAKEN WIND SHEAR. THOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH
WIND FIELD AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, THE OTHER MODELS PRESENT
DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THESE FIELDS (MAINLY WEAKER) AND MCS
TRAJECTORY. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR ALL OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IS
PAINTED MAINLY BY THE GFS SOLUTION, HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THAT DAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AND SOMETIMES WIDE VARIATIONS IN POPS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE MODELS` STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN THIS REGIME. THEN, SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO
DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT IN THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN, ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH APPEARS TO SETUP OVER THE S PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL TO
KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST CHC
OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY TIMING OF
PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN
TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    80  68  81  67 /  80  50  80  50
SHOALS        78  69  80  67 /  90  50  80  50
VINEMONT      79  68  81  67 /  80  50  80  50
FAYETTEVILLE  78  68  80  66 /  80  50  80  50
ALBERTVILLE   79  67  81  66 /  70  50  80  60
FORT PAYNE    79  67  80  66 /  60  50  70  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250501
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN
UPPER RIDGE...OFF THE SERN COASTLINE...KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE
WEST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER NW AL
TO KEEP SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA GOING UNTIL ARND 10Z. THUS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AT KMSL. ON MONDAY
TIMING OF PCPN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH THE AFTN HOURS WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 250220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED STORM WORDING TO FCST/GRIDS...OTHERWISE MADE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 250220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED STORM WORDING TO FCST/GRIDS...OTHERWISE MADE NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NW AL (50%) TO LOWEST
OVER NE AL (20%). WILL KEEP THUNDER OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY DUE TO 8H
WINDS OF 30/40 KTS AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WX THREAT LOOKS LOW TONIGHT BUT IN ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE AS
YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...THUS THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER WOULD BE
OVER NW AL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 242350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 242350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS
RVR VALLEY WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS
NRN AL ATTM. THUS EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL TSRA THRU
02Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER
TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 11Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z...AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED (EXCEPT MVFR IN
TSRA).

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE
UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE
EMBEDDED IN THIS SSW/NNE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FIRING UP
TO OUR SW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SE TO NW ACROSS SRN AL/MS AT H85. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH, MORNING LOWS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER OVER NW AL AS COMPARED TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NE
AL (UPPER 60S/70 VS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S).

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL IN THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS OVER RECENT DAYS. GENERALLY, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75". HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS IN NW AL DUE TO REDUCED
INSOLATION EXPECTED THERE.

TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, ONE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO START THE DAY, AND A MORE ROBUST ONE WILL ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT (AGAIN, WITH
PWATS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 1.75" AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT). TRAINING
OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WE`RE CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC, AND AS SUCH, THESE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REALLY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING AND ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE WASHING OUT SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
(WITH A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LOOKING LIKELY TO PLAY OUT). IF BOTH
MODELS ARE CORRECT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME PSEUDO-CUTOFF,
KEEPING A WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
ADJUST POPS UPWARD PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS/AGREEMENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  81  68  81 /  30  60  50  80
SHOALS        69  80  69  79 /  40  60  50  80
VINEMONT      67  80  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
FAYETTEVILLE  67  79  68  80 /  30  60  50  80
ALBERTVILLE   66  81  67  81 /  30  60  50  70
FORT PAYNE    66  80  67  80 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241745 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241745 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241745 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO A RETURN OF
CU/TCU ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE LATER EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MON...AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT NEARS THE REGION. GUSTY SE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10KT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES...AS SE WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241534 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241534 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...AS IT NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER
(MID-UPPER 60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 241517 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS IT
NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER (MID-UPPER
60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241517 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS IT
NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER (MID-UPPER
60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241517 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 FEET CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MAINLY 925 MB MOISTURE TRAPPED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS..ALTHOUGH MORE EVIDENT AT 850 MB...IS AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TUSKEGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA NW TOWARDS JASPER NEAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS IT
NUDGES NORTH INTO NW ALABAMA. BASED ON STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS...RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER (MID-UPPER
60S) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS MET. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER IN NW ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN NW ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORE
PREDOMINATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER JUST WEST OF
I-65. OTHERWISE WITH MODEL PROGGING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 16 OR 17 DEGREES...SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE OR
SCOTTSBORO COULD REACH 86 DEGREES DESPITE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BTWN
24/15Z-25/01Z. -SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER
THE ROCKY MTNS, AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN BETWEEN LOCATED
WITHIN THE VAST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MOST
IMPRESSIVE OVER TX. AT THE SFC, E-SELY FLOW IS ADVECTING RELATIVELY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE L-M50S AND EVEN THE
40S IN NRN GA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH IN SERN
GA. SO, WE WILL SEE RATHER COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES ARRIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR OUR REGION, THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL STREAMFLOW CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY THE NAM WITHIN THE EDGE OF THE GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT.

FORECAST THINKING HASN`T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROF IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES. THIS
WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SHEARED OUT UPON
REACHING THE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. A LINEAR
HODOGRAPH WITH PRIMARY FLOW FROM SSW THRU MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SLOW W-E PROGRESSION OF BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING FROM
OUR WEST ON MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS LAST WAVE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY, SO SHEAR VALUES WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH IN OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS ALSO DROPPING
FROM LIKELY TO CHC LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
OWING TO WARMER TEMPS. THIS TIME, IT WILL BE MUGGIER WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WE RECEIVE. WE DID GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MAX TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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