Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KHUN 250650
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
150 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SE THRU THE
CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SWRN THRU CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK TROF/COOL FRONT (MAINLY A MOISTURE BOUNDARY) WAS SITUATED FROM
WI THRU IA INTO WRN KS. A TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING THRU
WRN TX INTO KS AND MO AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED AFTN CU. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FULL SUN SHOULD ENABLE
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE M-U70S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AREAS-WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
WITH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. THE COOL
FRONT STALLS OUT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM SERN MO INTO NRN GA
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INFLUENCE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EQUATING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THAN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. THE
SHORTENING DAYS WILL LIMIT HEATING, BUT A FEW U80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NW. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT GENERATES A RATHER CONTINUOUS LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA BY BOTH GFS/ECWMF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO A DRY AND COOL DAYS 6-7 ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. FROST
MAY BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL BY THE MORNING OF DAY 8 JUST
BEYOND THIS PACKAGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT FOR HSV. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO 5SM AT KMSL
FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL SHALLOW FOG BTWN 09-13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS BY THE LATE MORNING WILL BECOME SW-W IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE.

RSB/KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    77  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        79  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      76  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  75  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   75  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    76  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 250532 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS (9 PM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S)
PREVAILED THIS EVENING...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM E-SE TEXAS TO THE APPALACHIANS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO...WITH BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW.

TEMP/DEWPOINT SEPARATIONS (AT LEAST AT THE ASOS SITES) WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES THIS EVENING. BUT LAMP AND OLDER NAM/GFS GUIDANCE HAS
DRY BULB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ADDITIONAL LATE NIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. FOG
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THOSE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED
SPOTS WILL MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FOG. THUS DELAYED FOG
FORMATION BY A FEW HOURS IN THIS UPDATE. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPS WERE MADE TOO. NEW UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT FOR HSV. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO 5SM AT KMSL
FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL SHALLOW FOG BTWN 09-13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS BY THE LATE MORNING WILL BECOME SW-W IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE.

RSB/KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 250214 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO DELAY FOG FORMATION UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND A FEW LOW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS (9 PM READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S)
PREVAILED THIS EVENING...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM E-SE TEXAS TO THE APPALACHIANS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE MOVING
AROUND UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO...WITH BRINGING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW.

TEMP/DEWPOINT SEPARATIONS (AT LEAST AT THE ASOS SITES) WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES THIS EVENING. BUT LAMP AND OLDER NAM/GFS GUIDANCE HAS
DRY BULB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ADDITIONAL LATE NIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. FOG
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THOSE NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED
SPOTS WILL MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FOG. THUS DELAYED FOG
FORMATION BY A FEW HOURS IN THIS UPDATE. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW
TEMPS WERE MADE TOO. NEW UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN KMSL LOCATION NEAR TN RIVER...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO 3SM BR IN
THE LATE NIGHT/DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SW-W AROUND 5 KT SAT AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 242322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN KMSL LOCATION NEAR TN RIVER...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO 3SM BR IN
THE LATE NIGHT/DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SW-W AROUND 5 KT SAT AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241841
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS
DELTA THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TN
VALLEY REGION REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (IN MOST AREAS).

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S MINS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNING`S READINGS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AIRMASS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN
MENTION THE VALLEY/RIVER FOG WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THIS
WEEK.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE U/L RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS AND WENT WITH A BLEND THAT HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ENERGY (REMNANTS OF TS ANA) COMING
ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN AN INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TROUGH SO
EXPECT THE INITIAL FRONT TO EITHER HANG UP OR DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BIT COOLER END TO NEXT WEEK.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME -BR/MVFR VIS AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS SAT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  77  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        46  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  76  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  44  76  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  76  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    43  75  51  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE FRI MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY CLOUD COVER JUST
ABOUT CLR OF NE AL. THICKER LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES LOOK TO REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BELOW H7. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED FROM
THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND DROP
SWD...AS ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NW. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GULF REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A PERSISTENT LIGHT NLY
FETCH AT THE SFC THOUGH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS LATER TODAY FROM INCREASING
MORE INTO THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SE
OF THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...OTHER THAN LOWERING AFTERNOON HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO...ALONG WITH REFRESHING SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS/PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME -BR/MVFR VIS AROUND THE KMSL TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS SAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241628 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS LATE FRI MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY CLOUD COVER JUST
ABOUT CLR OF NE AL. THICKER LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE
MID/SRN ATLANTIC STATES LOOK TO REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION BELOW H7. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED FROM
THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND DROP
SWD...AS ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NW. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GULF REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A PERSISTENT LIGHT NLY
FETCH AT THE SFC THOUGH MAY INHIBIT TEMPS LATER TODAY FROM INCREASING
MORE INTO THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SE
OF THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...OTHER THAN LOWERING AFTERNOON HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO...ALONG WITH REFRESHING SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS...NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS/PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
UPR TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OF THE AREA TAKING WITH IT THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST.
PATCHY VALLEY/GROUND FOG TONIGHT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 241103 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
UPR TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OF THE AREA TAKING WITH IT THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST.
PATCHY VALLEY/GROUND FOG TONIGHT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 240950
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        74  45  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  71  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   73  45  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    74  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 240950
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
THIS TROUGH -- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES LATER TODAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO RESULT IN A RAPID CLEARING TREND WITH SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NNW WINDS TODAY AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG IN
LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A MINOR INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT STILL APPEARS AS IF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS -- ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE -- WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONGER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR
THIS REASON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WITH A VEERED LOW-LEVEL JET
OF ONLY 15-25 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AT BEST ARGUE FOR THE THREAT OF ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY PENETRATE
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE COMING ON HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        74  45  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      74  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  71  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   73  45  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    74  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 240531 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER TROF AXIS WAS ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER ATTM.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ARND 10Z/11Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 240137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 232256
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231951
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        43  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  70  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  67  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231951
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  70  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        43  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  70  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  42  67  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   43  70  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  72  44  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231732 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z/24. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL INCREASE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS
WILL NOT FALL BELOW 10KFT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LGT NNW FLOW WILL RESUME.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231559 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORTHCOMING TO SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231559 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FORTHCOMING TO SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY YET AGAIN, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE OF NOTE THIS
MORNING DUE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PUSHING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND MISSOURI INDICATE LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CLOUDS DO GET LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE NOT
HAMPERED TEMPERATURES YET, THOUGH, AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER A CHILLY START.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, AND BY THE END OF THE DAY,
SKY COVER WILL BE ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST--BUT ALSO EXCLUSIVELY
ABOVE ROUGHLY 15-20,000 FT, PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. DEEP, VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP OR REACH THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MAXIMUM HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO, OR JUST UNDER YESTERDAY`S VALUES.

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT SKY COVER WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND OBSERVED TRENDS, AND WEATHER WILL BE
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE END OF FOG AND FROST.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z/24. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING BUT THIS WILL RESULT
IN CIGS BTWN 12-15K FT. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ATTM.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 230940
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH NORMALLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEING DISRUPTED BY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS...WILL RETAIN PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA -- ALTHOUGH AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT BOTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A
WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER -- POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAINLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME...WEAK NATURE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR EVEN
SPRINKLES. DESPITE WEAKER COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CONVERSELY...LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER -- WITH THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS BY
3-7 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A HIGHER THREAT FOR FOG WILL EXIST IN
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN FORECASTING THE CENTER OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING -- AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
SHEAR APART AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS -- AND ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE NIGHT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG/MIST
AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN IT IN THE PREVAILING...THEREFORE HAVE A TEMPO PERIOD NOTED
AT DAYBREAK THU. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE...WITH NE WINDS
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  70  46 /   0  10   0   0
SHOALS        68  43  71  46 /   0  10   0   0
VINEMONT      67  45  70  46 /   0  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  65  42  67  45 /   0  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   67  43  70  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    68  42  72  44 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 230526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 923 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTROLS
THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WAS BRINGING A LIGHT N-NE FLOW TO THIS REGION. TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH...A NOR`EASTER CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY JUST
OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...THERE IS A RISK
FOR FROSTING DURING THE PREDAWN IN THE COLDER SPOTS AROUND THE
VALLEY. ALONG WITH FROSTING...PATCHY FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY DENSE
COULD ALSO FORM IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS TOO. WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY THU AM.

ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS.
THOSE CHANGES WILL NOT MAKE WORDING CHANGES TO THE ZONES. WILL
SEND OUT UPDATED AFM/PFM SHORTLY...SHOWING THOSE CHANGES.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG/MIST AROUND DAYBREAK
AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT
IN THE PREVAILING...THEREFORE HAVE A TEMPO PERIOD NOTED AT DAYBREAK
THU. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE...WITH NE WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 230223 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTROLS
THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WAS BRINGING A LIGHT N-NE FLOW TO THIS REGION. TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH...A NOR`EASTER CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY JUST
OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW SHOULD STAY
WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...THERE IS A RISK
FOR FROSTING DURING THE PREDAWN IN THE COLDER SPOTS AROUND THE
VALLEY. ALONG WITH FROSTING...PATCHY FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY DENSE
COULD ALSO FORM IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS TOO. WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY THU AM.

ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS.
THOSE CHANGES WILL NOT MAKE WORDING CHANGES TO THE ZONES. WILL
SEND OUT UPDATED AFM/PFM SHORTLY...SHOWING THOSE CHANGES.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAVE LEFT MVFR FOG/MIST IN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THU AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING AND LIGHT ENE
WINDS INTO THUR AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 222325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...HAVE LEFT MVFR FOG/MIST IN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THU AT BOTH TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING AND LIGHT ENE
WINDS INTO THUR AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO GENERALLY THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR RIVERS. TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MY SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDERING
COUNTIES FROM LIMESTONE COUNTY EASTWARD FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
COOLER NAM AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE AND THE WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW INVOLVING INTRODUCING PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE PREVIOUS FEW COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 16 HOURS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 15-17 KTS. FOG FORMATION
IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 10-13Z NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS--IMPACTING
BOTH KHSV/KMSL. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  68  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        38  68  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      38  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  36  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   37  68  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ005-006-009.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1027 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT, DRY, SUNNY DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATOCU PUSHING SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THOUGH THEY HAVE
NOT MADE IT FAR BEYOND CROSSVILLE OR CHATTANOOGA. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SW FLANK OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE STRATOCU MIGHT FILTER A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT, EVEN IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY
MINOR TWEAKS FOR DEWPOINT AND SKY COVER, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 16 HOURS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 15-17 KTS. FOG FORMATION
IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 10-13Z NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS--IMPACTING
BOTH KHSV/KMSL. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221710 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1027 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT, DRY, SUNNY DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATOCU PUSHING SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THOUGH THEY HAVE
NOT MADE IT FAR BEYOND CROSSVILLE OR CHATTANOOGA. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SW FLANK OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE STRATOCU MIGHT FILTER A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT, EVEN IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY
MINOR TWEAKS FOR DEWPOINT AND SKY COVER, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 16 HOURS WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 15-17 KTS. FOG FORMATION
IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 10-13Z NEAR RIVERS, LAKES, AND VALLEYS--IMPACTING
BOTH KHSV/KMSL. HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER DROPS IN VIS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221527 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1027 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT, DRY, SUNNY DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATOCU PUSHING SW TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THOUGH THEY HAVE
NOT MADE IT FAR BEYOND CROSSVILLE OR CHATTANOOGA. THIS IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SW FLANK OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE STRATOCU MIGHT FILTER A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA, BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT, EVEN IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY
MINOR TWEAKS FOR DEWPOINT AND SKY COVER, NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH MSL/HSV TERMINALS
THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH NE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 8G15 KTS
BY 22/15Z. AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS TN THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY AND MAY DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WIND SPEED AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE SUNRISE...WILL NOT INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS ATTM.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO PUSH WELL INTO S AL/CNTRL MS
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED PREDOM IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THUS FAR AS
WELL...WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FOG FORMATION IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY YET SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...THX IN PART
TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H925...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH...AND ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITHIN AN HR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALSO
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC HIGH EWD...HELPING TO SUPPLANT QUIET AND
SEASONABLY COOL/MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE SE REGION INTO FRI. ONLY
EXCEPTION THE LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO HINT AT IS AN EMBEDDED
UPPER SHTRWV/TROUGH AXIS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BEHIND
THE EXITING RIDGE PATTERN THU AND FRI. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF QPF GENERATED ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS WITH THIS ONCOMING
SHEAR AXIS...ONLY TO THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FURTHER SE AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR AOB H5. THIS MAY AT LEAST RESULT IN A FEW
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI...BEFORE A BROADER UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF REGION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE POINTING TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY REINFORCING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW STATES TRAVERSING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE AREA...WITH MORE OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD BUILDING SWD INTO THE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
THIS LOOKS TO USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP TREND MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THE
SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS E TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A MUCH
BROADER COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN HALVES OF THE
CONUS TUE INTO WED. THE MODELS DIFFER THOUGH ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES...AND AS SUCH
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THIS
MAY CHANGE THOUGH WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...IF IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE RETURN MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HEADING INTO LATE TUE/WED.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 221151
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO PUSH WELL INTO S AL/CNTRL MS
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED PREDOM IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THUS FAR AS
WELL...WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FOG FORMATION IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY YET SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...THX IN PART
TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H925...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH...AND ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITHIN AN HR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALSO
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC HIGH EWD...HELPING TO SUPPLANT QUIET AND
SEASONABLY COOL/MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE SE REGION INTO FRI. ONLY
EXCEPTION THE LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO HINT AT IS AN EMBEDDED
UPPER SHTRWV/TROUGH AXIS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BEHIND
THE EXITING RIDGE PATTERN THU AND FRI. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF QPF GENERATED ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS WITH THIS ONCOMING
SHEAR AXIS...ONLY TO THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FURTHER SE AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR AOB H5. THIS MAY AT LEAST RESULT IN A FEW
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI...BEFORE A BROADER UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF REGION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE POINTING TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY REINFORCING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW STATES TRAVERSING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE AREA...WITH MORE OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD BUILDING SWD INTO THE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
THIS LOOKS TO USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP TREND MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THE
SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS E TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A MUCH
BROADER COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN HALVES OF THE
CONUS TUE INTO WED. THE MODELS DIFFER THOUGH ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES...AND AS SUCH
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THIS
MAY CHANGE THOUGH WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...IF IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE RETURN MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HEADING INTO LATE TUE/WED.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH MSL/HSV TERMINALS
THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH NE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 8G15 KTS
BY 22/15Z. AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS TN THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY AND MAY DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WIND SPEED AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE SUNRISE...WILL NOT INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS ATTM.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities