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000
FXUS64 KHUN 080603
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
ONCOMING COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE MS RIVER INTO N CNTRL AR...WITH
THE NRN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO CROSS EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH DOES NOT
HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ARE PRESENT OVER NW TN
AND LOCATIONS NWD. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SFC FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE MS RIVER EWD. AS SUCH...RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED A TAD JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS. OVERALL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT HSV/MSL OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS AN UPPER
LOW SINKS SEWD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TWO TERMINALS ARND 15Z...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NW AND INCREASING TO 10G18 KTS. STRATUS DECK WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ARND 5 KFT IN WAKE OF FRONT BENEATH OVERCAST
ALTOSTRATUS. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PCPN IN THE FORM OF -SHSN WILL BEGIN
LATE TOMORROW AFTN IN NW ALABAMA AND SPREAD EWD THRU THE EVENING AS
LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. REGARDLESS OF -SHSN CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THIS PERIOD BUT WILL FALL TO ARND 3500 FT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 080317 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONCOMING COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE MS RIVER INTO N CNTRL AR...WITH
THE NRN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO CROSS EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY STATES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH DOES NOT
HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HRS. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ARE PRESENT OVER NW TN
AND LOCATIONS NWD. ANY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SFC FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO CROSS
THE MS RIVER EWD. AS SUCH...RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED A TAD JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THE CURRENT/HOURLY GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS. OVERALL THOUGH...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 072334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 072334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072334 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES. CLOUD HEIGHTS MAY LOWER CLOSER TO
4-5KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MON...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE AREA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW
AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG/BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 072226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  43  28  33 /  20  40  30  20
SHOALS        38  42  28  34 /  20  30  30  20
VINEMONT      38  41  26  32 /  20  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  40  26  29 /  20  50  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   36  42  28  31 /  20  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    35  42  26  30 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 072226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  43  28  33 /  20  40  30  20
SHOALS        38  42  28  34 /  20  30  30  20
VINEMONT      38  41  26  32 /  20  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  40  26  29 /  20  50  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   36  42  28  31 /  20  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    35  42  26  30 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 072226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HOPE EVERYONE WAS ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN AS COLDER TEMPS
AND SNOW ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS ONE OF
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH HI RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN
BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. ON TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BITTER COLD IN THE 30S...WHICH ARE VALUES NORMALLY
AROUND OUR SEASONAL LOWS! THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW AS PRECIP EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE ON WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. AS FOR
NIGHTTIME...MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDCHILL VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...SO BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!

WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS RECENTLY...WARM SOIL TEMPS MAY HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE...TO SCOTTSBORO...AND NEAR FORT PAYNE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  43  28  33 /  20  40  30  20
SHOALS        38  42  28  34 /  20  30  30  20
VINEMONT      38  41  26  32 /  20  30  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  40  26  29 /  20  50  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   36  42  28  31 /  20  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    35  42  26  30 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 071727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 071727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 071727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS THAT
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE FOR MSL AND HSV AFTER
09Z. WILL KEEP IN LOWER CEILINGS IN RANGE OF 4KFT-5KFT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 071639 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHSV/KMSL BTWN 09Z-12Z AND THEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 071639 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1039 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH KEPT COLDER AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST INTO MISSOURI. WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPING AS A RESULT NEAR AND WEST OF I-65. ALTHOUGH SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST OVER
ACROSS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
GEORGIA THROUGH NOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES...RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SOME INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHSV/KMSL BTWN 09Z-12Z AND THEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 071104 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
504 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 152 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
AT 07Z, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
TX THRU MIDDLE TN AND INTO PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER
STRONG TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST, JUST PASSING EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES WITHIN NW FLOW
ENTERING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

ANOTHER NICE WX DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF POLAR JET AXIS ARRIVES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE UVVS TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
THE QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. THE NAM IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
FORECASTS NO PRECIP TONIGHT. EVEN THE GFS MOS IS QUITE LOW WITH POPS,
ALTHOUGH THE RAW FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. FIRST "WAVE" OF
PRECIP OR VIRGA WILL SLIDE SE OF THE AREA QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERATING SOME LIMITED CAPE FOR SHOWERY PRECIP. OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF SHOWERY PRECIP
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN SRN TN AND FAR NERN AL. PRECIP
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN ATOP THE PLATEAU MONDAY AFTN. A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPS SE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING INTO KY/MIDDLE
TN. THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PLATEAU MAY PRODUCE
PERSISTENT -SHSN IN SOME AREAS. BUT PINNING THE AREAL COVERAGE
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
FOR NOW. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE PLATEAU IN
LATER UPDATES IF THE CONFIDENCE IN POP GOES UP, PARTICULARLY WITH
AREAL COVERAGE.

AFTER A COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROF RETREATS ITS GRIP OVER
THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S TO
L50S AT LEAST ON THURSDAY (THE ECMWF SUGGESTS EVEN WARMER). LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS A NWLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH A W-SW SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -SN/FZRA INITIALLY,
BUT SIDING WITH THE WARMER ECWMF AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY WITH A
BLENDED POP OF ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEW ECWMF SHOWS -SHSN
POTENTIAL WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHSV/KMSL BTWN 09Z-12Z AND THEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER 12Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 070752
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
TX THRU MIDDLE TN AND INTO PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER
STRONG TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST, JUST PASSING EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES WITHIN NW FLOW
ENTERING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

ANOTHER NICE WX DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
L-M50S. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF POLAR JET AXIS ARRIVES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE UVVS TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
THE QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. THE NAM IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
FORECASTS NO PRECIP TONIGHT. EVEN THE GFS MOS IS QUITE LOW WITH POPS,
ALTHOUGH THE RAW FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. FIRST "WAVE" OF
PRECIP OR VIRGA WILL SLIDE SE OF THE AREA QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. THEN THE STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERATING SOME LIMITED CAPE FOR SHOWERY PRECIP. OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF SHOWERY PRECIP
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN SRN TN AND FAR NERN AL. PRECIP
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN ATOP THE PLATEAU MONDAY AFTN. A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE DROPS SE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING INTO KY/MIDDLE
TN. THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PLATEAU MAY PRODUCE
PERSISTENT -SHSN IN SOME AREAS. BUT PINNING THE AREAL COVERAGE
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
FOR NOW. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE PLATEAU IN
LATER UPDATES IF THE CONFIDENCE IN POP GOES UP, PARTICULARLY WITH
AREAL COVERAGE.

AFTER A COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROF RETREATS ITS GRIP OVER
THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S TO
L50S AT LEAST ON THURSDAY (THE ECMWF SUGGESTS EVEN WARMER). LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AS A NWLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH A W-SW SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR -SN/FZRA INITIALLY,
BUT SIDING WITH THE WARMER ECWMF AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY WITH A
BLENDED POP OF ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE NEW ECWMF SHOWS -SHSN
POTENTIAL WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE AL WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. CI/AC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ARND 00Z AS A UPPER TROF/CDFNT
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    55  39  43  28 /   0  20  30  30
SHOALS        55  38  42  28 /   0  10  30  20
VINEMONT      54  38  41  26 /   0  10  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  52  35  40  26 /   0  20  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   53  36  42  28 /   0  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    52  35  42  26 /   0  20  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 070449
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 856 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
UPPER LOW OVER AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLOUDS NOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCT CLOUDS ARND OVERNIGHT THAT MAY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS VALUES. OVERALL EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO BE ARND 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT
LOWS AS IS. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE AL WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. CI/AC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ARND 00Z AS A UPPER TROF/CDFNT
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 070256
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
856 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLOUDS NOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCT CLOUDS ARND OVERNIGHT THAT MAY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS VALUES. OVERALL EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO BE ARND 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT
LOWS AS IS. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 517 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 062317 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 062317 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
517 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 062237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  55  37  42 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        31  56  36  41 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      30  54  37  41 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  29  54  36  40 /   0   0  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  36  42 /   0   0  20  30
FORT PAYNE    28  56  35  42 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 062237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  55  37  42 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        31  56  36  41 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      30  54  37  41 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  29  54  36  40 /   0   0  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  36  42 /   0   0  20  30
FORT PAYNE    28  56  35  42 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 062237
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE TREND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY HAS BEEN PASSING SCT/BKN CLOUDS
WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
AND START OUT DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN AS RAIN UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN FIRST. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS OUR SEASONABLE LOWS! AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  55  37  42 /   0   0  20  30
SHOALS        31  56  36  41 /   0   0  20  30
VINEMONT      30  54  37  41 /   0   0  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  29  54  36  40 /   0   0  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   31  55  36  42 /   0   0  20  30
FORT PAYNE    28  56  35  42 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061724 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061649 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AL/GA LINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOME OF
NORTHERN GA. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AS THE DAY
GOES ON. THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-65. FURTHER WEST SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY START AROUND NOON...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
FLOW FROM THE NORTH ADVECTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH SOME MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CULLMAN COUNTY...PORTIONS OF NW
AL...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...EXPECT A THICK ENOUGH LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EVERYWHERE BY NOON FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF
I-65 AND IN LINCOLN COUNTY (TN)...THINK PREVIOUS HIGHS WERE JUST A
TAD LOW AND RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SINCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON TOUGHER MUCH OF THE DAY...TWEAKED HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061110
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061110
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061110
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060740
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  31  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        52  32  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      50  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  51  30  55  36 /   0   0   0  30
ALBERTVILLE   51  32  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    52  30  57  38 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060740
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  31  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        52  32  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      50  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  51  30  55  36 /   0   0   0  30
ALBERTVILLE   51  32  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    52  30  57  38 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060740
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  31  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        52  32  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      50  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  51  30  55  36 /   0   0   0  30
ALBERTVILLE   51  32  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    52  30  57  38 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 060518 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1118 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE MID TN
VALLEY THIS FRI EVENING...AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS RETURNING...TEMPS HAVE
MANAGED TO SLIP INTO PREDOM THE LOWER/MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WITH DEW PT TRENDS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S...MAY STILL SEE TEMPS FALL A
FEW MORE DEGREES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL
TN VALLEY...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW UPDATES TO SOME OF THE CURRENT HOURLY GRIDS BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES/UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS
THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060323 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE MID TN
VALLEY THIS FRI EVENING...AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS RETURNING...TEMPS HAVE
MANAGED TO SLIP INTO PREDOM THE LOWER/MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WITH DEW PT TRENDS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S...MAY STILL SEE TEMPS FALL A
FEW MORE DEGREES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL
TN VALLEY...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW UPDATES TO SOME OF THE CURRENT HOURLY GRIDS BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES/UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052328 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
528 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 052328 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
528 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052328 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
528 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052129
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  50  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        29  51  31  55 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      28  49  29  54 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  28  50  29  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   28  49  30  52 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    27  49  28  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052129
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  50  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        29  51  31  55 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      28  49  29  54 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  28  50  29  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   28  49  30  52 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    27  49  28  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 052129
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DESPITE
NEARLY UNLIMITED INSOLATION...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NOTED CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THIS REGION WAS BRINGING LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE ABOVE NOTED DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EVEN MORE POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SE FROM THE PACIFIC-NW TO THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH...IT WILL ALSO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL DOWN ABOUT 10F OR SO...FROM THE MID 50S SUN TO MID 40S MON.

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF RAIN/SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING MON NIGHT...RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH AND BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD NOT
RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE PRECIP SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS LIGHT SNOW DURING TUE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TUE NIGHT SHOULD END SNOW
CHANCES. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
20S.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. WITH THIS...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. WE HAVE REMOVED A WIND
CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THESE WARMER TRENDS. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE WITH GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  50  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        29  51  31  55 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      28  49  29  54 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  28  50  29  53 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   28  49  30  52 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    27  49  28  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051649
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
18Z TAFS AND MORNING UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAD A CHILLY START WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNNY
SKIES HAVE REBOUNDED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS OF 16Z.

WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
TODAY...JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. AROUND THE RIDGE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FEED INTO THE TN VALLEY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
BESIDES CLOUD COVER...ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS BY A
DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DRIER OBS UPSTREAM.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051649
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
18Z TAFS AND MORNING UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAD A CHILLY START WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNNY
SKIES HAVE REBOUNDED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS OF 16Z.

WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
TODAY...JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. AROUND THE RIDGE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FEED INTO THE TN VALLEY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
BESIDES CLOUD COVER...ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS BY A
DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DRIER OBS UPSTREAM.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051649
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
18Z TAFS AND MORNING UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAD A CHILLY START WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNNY
SKIES HAVE REBOUNDED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS OF 16Z.

WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
TODAY...JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. AROUND THE RIDGE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FEED INTO THE TN VALLEY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
BESIDES CLOUD COVER...ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS BY A
DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DRIER OBS UPSTREAM.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77
&&


.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051109 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
509 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051109 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
509 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051109 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
509 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050901
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. FURTHER
WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

COLD BUT SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SHORT-
TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TODAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER TX INTO THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, `WARM` AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SATURDAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
ONCOMING LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE PUSHING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FIRST, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED ON SUNDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. AS A RESULT OF
THE BRIEF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY, ANTICIPATING THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z (1AM- 6AM). COOLING ALOFT
MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE FROPA ON
MONDAY.

THEN, EXPECT THAT THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO
RAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
RETURN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS CHANGE TRAJECTORY, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
COLD AIRMASS. THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW, BUT STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT SNOW AND LIKELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AT THE CRITICAL -10C/-20C
LEVELS, THE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF/DURING THE
TROUGH PASSAGE (BEHIND THE FRONT), TRAJECTORY OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, AND SOURCE REGION OF THE COLD AIRMASS. SO, GIVEN THESE
VARIABLES, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
LIKELY.

THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN), AS THE LAST COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK UNTIL LATER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLD/RAW CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANTICIPATE MORNING LOWS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR AS DAYTIME
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY THURSDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS TO DAMPEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PREVAILS.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1116 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  32  52  31 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        50  31  53  32 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      48  30  51  30 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  48  31  50  30 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   48  30  50  31 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    48  28  51  29 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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