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000
FXUS64 KHUN 311127 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
LOOKS LIKE A TRICKY FCST COMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY WX.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT WX MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY IS A DEEP TROF NOW
OVER THE SWRN US. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES (SCT CI). TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S AND INCREASING CLOUDS. REMOVED THE
MENTION OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT SINCE ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING IT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AS A SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...DRAGGING A CDFNT WITH
IT. THIS CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING ARND 03Z OVER NW AL AND THRU THE CWA BY 09Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING
DUE TO 8H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AND SOME VERY WEAK CAPES. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER FOR SUNDAY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MRNG IS WHERE THE WINTRY MIX MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMEFRAME IS WHEN
THE COLD AIR REALLY STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP A
SN/RA MIX BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z MONDAY MRNG MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW THAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER AS USUAL
MOISTURE LOOKS IFFY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. AFTER 18Z WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM EXPECTING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A WARM GROUND...TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT ACROSS THE CWA.

MONDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY WILL BE COOL BUT DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY SPOT IN THE FCST AS AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER GFS IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING NO PCPN AT ALL
FOR THE TN VALLEY. ALSO TO MAKES MATTERS WORST...GFS SHOWS ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY AT ALL.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY BUT COLD...LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
40S...A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310909
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
309 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A TRICKY FCST COMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY WX.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT WX MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY IS A DEEP TROF NOW
OVER THE SWRN US. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES (SCT CI). TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S AND INCREASING CLOUDS. REMOVED THE
MENTION OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT SINCE ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING IT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AS A SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...DRAGGING A CDFNT WITH
IT. THIS CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING ARND 03Z OVER NW AL AND THRU THE CWA BY 09Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING
DUE TO 8H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AND SOME VERY WEAK CAPES. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER FOR SUNDAY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MRNG IS WHERE THE WINTRY MIX MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMEFRAME IS WHEN
THE COLD AIR REALLY STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP A
SN/RA MIX BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z MONDAY MRNG MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW THAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER AS USUAL
MOISTURE LOOKS IFFY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. AFTER 18Z WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM EXPECTING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A WARM GROUND...TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT ACROSS THE CWA.

MONDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY WILL BE COOL BUT DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY SPOT IN THE FCST AS AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER GFS IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING NO PCPN AT ALL
FOR THE TN VALLEY. ALSO TO MAKES MATTERS WORST...GFS SHOWS ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY AT ALL.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY BUT COLD...LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
40S...A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HRS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  40  54  32 /   0  10 100  80
SHOALS        54  41  55  31 /   0  10 100  80
VINEMONT      53  40  54  32 /   0  10 100  80
FAYETTEVILLE  52  38  53  30 /   0  10 100  80
ALBERTVILLE   53  40  54  34 /   0  10 100  80
FORT PAYNE    52  38  53  33 /   0  10 100  80

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310909
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
309 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A TRICKY FCST COMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY WX.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT WX MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY IS A DEEP TROF NOW
OVER THE SWRN US. CLOSER TO HOME TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES (SCT CI). TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S AND INCREASING CLOUDS. REMOVED THE
MENTION OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT SINCE ALL MODELS WERE SHOWING IT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AS A SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS MO/IL AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...DRAGGING A CDFNT WITH
IT. THIS CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING ARND 03Z OVER NW AL AND THRU THE CWA BY 09Z. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING
DUE TO 8H WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AND SOME VERY WEAK CAPES. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER FOR SUNDAY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MRNG IS WHERE THE WINTRY MIX MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THIS TIMEFRAME IS WHEN
THE COLD AIR REALLY STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. THUS WILL KEEP A
SN/RA MIX BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z MONDAY MRNG MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW THAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER AS USUAL
MOISTURE LOOKS IFFY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. AFTER 18Z WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM EXPECTING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A WARM GROUND...TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT ACROSS THE CWA.

MONDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY WILL BE COOL BUT DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY SPOT IN THE FCST AS AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER GFS IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH WITH PCPN THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING NO PCPN AT ALL
FOR THE TN VALLEY. ALSO TO MAKES MATTERS WORST...GFS SHOWS ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY AT ALL.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY BUT COLD...LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
40S...A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HRS.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  40  54  32 /   0  10 100  80
SHOALS        54  41  55  31 /   0  10 100  80
VINEMONT      53  40  54  32 /   0  10 100  80
FAYETTEVILLE  52  38  53  30 /   0  10 100  80
ALBERTVILLE   53  40  54  34 /   0  10 100  80
FORT PAYNE    52  38  53  33 /   0  10 100  80

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310445 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 933 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING...WITH TEMP TRENDS RANGING QUITE A BIT
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS SRN MID TN TO NEAR 40 ACROSS NW AL. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ESPECIALLY IN
RIDGE/VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT...AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN
TO REFRESH SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310445 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 933 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING...WITH TEMP TRENDS RANGING QUITE A BIT
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS SRN MID TN TO NEAR 40 ACROSS NW AL. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ESPECIALLY IN
RIDGE/VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT...AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN
TO REFRESH SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310333 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING...WITH TEMP TRENDS RANGING QUITE A BIT
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS SRN MID TN TO NEAR 40 ACROSS NW AL. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ESPECIALLY IN
RIDGE/VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT...AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN
TO REFRESH SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SAT.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
AMPLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDED GOOD
MIXING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A CIRROSTRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CA/NV/AZ
BORDER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DUE TO A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DUE TO THESE SYSTEMS AND THE THICK PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAYS VALUES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RETREATING CUTOFF LOW
WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN SW TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. STRONG WAA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM NEAR A HALF AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES
COLD AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP AND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX. ADDED A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS REMAINS UNDETERMINED. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310333 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING...WITH TEMP TRENDS RANGING QUITE A BIT
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS SRN MID TN TO NEAR 40 ACROSS NW AL. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ESPECIALLY IN
RIDGE/VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT...AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN
TO REFRESH SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SAT.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
AMPLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDED GOOD
MIXING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A CIRROSTRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CA/NV/AZ
BORDER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DUE TO A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DUE TO THESE SYSTEMS AND THE THICK PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAYS VALUES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RETREATING CUTOFF LOW
WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN SW TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. STRONG WAA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM NEAR A HALF AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES
COLD AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP AND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX. ADDED A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS REMAINS UNDETERMINED. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302327 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
AMPLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDED GOOD
MIXING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A CIRROSTRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CA/NV/AZ
BORDER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DUE TO A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DUE TO THESE SYSTEMS AND THE THICK PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAYS VALUES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RETREATING CUTOFF LOW
WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN SW TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. STRONG WAA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM NEAR A HALF AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES
COLD AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP AND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX. ADDED A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS REMAINS UNDETERMINED. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302128
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDED GOOD
MIXING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A CIRROSTRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CA/NV/AZ
BORDER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DUE TO A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DUE TO THESE SYSTEMS AND THE THICK PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAYS VALUES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RETREATING CUTOFF LOW
WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN SW TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. STRONG WAA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM NEAR A HALF AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES
COLD AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP AND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX. ADDED A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS REMAINS UNDETERMINED. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-05Z...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AT 18Z SATURDAY.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    27  52  39  53 /   0   0  20  90
SHOALS        27  53  40  54 /   0   0  20  90
VINEMONT      25  52  40  53 /   0   0  20  90
FAYETTEVILLE  24  48  37  53 /   0   0  20  90
ALBERTVILLE   27  51  39  53 /   0   0  10  90
FORT PAYNE    24  51  36  52 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302128
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDED GOOD
MIXING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A CIRROSTRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CA/NV/AZ
BORDER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DUE TO A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DUE TO THESE SYSTEMS AND THE THICK PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAYS VALUES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RETREATING CUTOFF LOW
WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN SW TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. STRONG WAA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM NEAR A HALF AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES
COLD AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP AND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX. ADDED A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS REMAINS UNDETERMINED. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-05Z...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AT 18Z SATURDAY.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    27  52  39  53 /   0   0  20  90
SHOALS        27  53  40  54 /   0   0  20  90
VINEMONT      25  52  40  53 /   0   0  20  90
FAYETTEVILLE  24  48  37  53 /   0   0  20  90
ALBERTVILLE   27  51  39  53 /   0   0  10  90
FORT PAYNE    24  51  36  52 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301711 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1111 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SOON TO IMPROVE THE CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. 12Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA INDICATED THAT
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REFLECT THIS WITH NEARLY STEADY TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
RISING TEMPS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-05Z...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AT 18Z SATURDAY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301711 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1111 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SOON TO IMPROVE THE CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. 12Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA INDICATED THAT
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REFLECT THIS WITH NEARLY STEADY TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
RISING TEMPS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIODS FOR HSV AND MSL. HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-05Z...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AT 18Z SATURDAY.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301646 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SOON TO IMPROVE THE CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. 12Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA INDICATED THAT
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REFLECT THIS WITH NEARLY STEADY TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
RISING TEMPS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-13KTS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 31/00Z WHEN WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 4KTS AND
VARIABLE.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301646 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SOON TO IMPROVE THE CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. 12Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA INDICATED THAT
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REFLECT THIS WITH NEARLY STEADY TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
RISING TEMPS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-13KTS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 31/00Z WHEN WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 4KTS AND
VARIABLE.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301140
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH AN
EMBEDDED VORT MAX CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF
POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...BEFORE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH LEADS TO A MORE RAPID CLEARING TREND
FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND A GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER/MID 40S. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVACUATE THE REGION BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...CIRRUS WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN NW
FLOW ALOFT AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. THIS...COUPLED WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVENT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 20S. THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED AROUND MIDNIGHT...
BEFORE CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS THICKEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FREEZING
FOG IN LOCAL VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO -- AND A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS REGIME WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERCAST COVERAGE OF THICK MID/HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SETTING UP A STRONG VEERING/WAA PROFILE
AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIFT
GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 280-300K LAYER WILL BECOME
RATHER STRONG -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6-12Z SUNDAY -- AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS INCREASE
INTO THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE. THE LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY ONE OR
MORE LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW
MEXICO UPPER LOW. DESPITE VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN
SOUNDINGS...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AS MODELS
TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT/SATURATION IN THESE
SCENARIOS. ALTHOUGH NOT STATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A FEW SLEET
PELLETS MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN AT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
INVADES ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NW. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
00-06Z MONDAY...WITH A GUSTY NW WIND ADVECTING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT...BUT MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UVM WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUS...
VERY LIGHT POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
MAINLY TAKE THE FORM OF A LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST
OF I-65 BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TUESDAY AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEM WRT TO EJECTION OF MEXICAN
CUTOFF LOW ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS
FEATURE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH PRECIPITATION ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER WOULD
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP VORT MAX DIGGING THROUGH BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ARRIVAL OF AN
EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-13KTS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 31/00Z WHEN WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 4KTS AND
VARIABLE.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  27  51  39 /  10   0   0  20
SHOALS        46  26  51  40 /   0   0   0  40
VINEMONT      46  25  52  40 /   0   0   0  30
FAYETTEVILLE  42  24  48  36 /  10   0   0  20
ALBERTVILLE   44  26  50  40 /  10   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    44  25  50  37 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301140
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...WITH AN
EMBEDDED VORT MAX CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF
POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
15Z. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...BEFORE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH LEADS TO A MORE RAPID CLEARING TREND
FROM WEST-TO-EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND A GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER/MID 40S. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EVACUATE THE REGION BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...CIRRUS WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN NW
FLOW ALOFT AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. THIS...COUPLED WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVENT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 20S. THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED AROUND MIDNIGHT...
BEFORE CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS THICKEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FREEZING
FOG IN LOCAL VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WE
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
ORGANIZING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO -- AND A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS REGIME WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERCAST COVERAGE OF THICK MID/HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SETTING UP A STRONG VEERING/WAA PROFILE
AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIFT
GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 280-300K LAYER WILL BECOME
RATHER STRONG -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6-12Z SUNDAY -- AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS INCREASE
INTO THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE. THE LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY ONE OR
MORE LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW
MEXICO UPPER LOW. DESPITE VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN
SOUNDINGS...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AS MODELS
TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT/SATURATION IN THESE
SCENARIOS. ALTHOUGH NOT STATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A FEW SLEET
PELLETS MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN AT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
INVADES ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NW. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
00-06Z MONDAY...WITH A GUSTY NW WIND ADVECTING MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIR
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT...BUT MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UVM WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUS...
VERY LIGHT POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
MAINLY TAKE THE FORM OF A LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST
OF I-65 BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON TUESDAY AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEM WRT TO EJECTION OF MEXICAN
CUTOFF LOW ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS
FEATURE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH PRECIPITATION ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER WOULD
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP VORT MAX DIGGING THROUGH BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ARRIVAL OF AN
EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION (FOR 12Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-13KTS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 31/00Z WHEN WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 4KTS AND
VARIABLE.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  27  51  39 /  10   0   0  20
SHOALS        46  26  51  40 /   0   0   0  40
VINEMONT      46  25  52  40 /   0   0   0  30
FAYETTEVILLE  42  24  48  36 /  10   0   0  20
ALBERTVILLE   44  26  50  40 /  10   0   0  20
FORT PAYNE    44  25  50  37 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 300458 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1058 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW
PRETTY WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WIND...HAVE KEPT TEMP
TRENDS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY
FALL MORE INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS N OF THE AREA MAY SKIRT THE FAR ERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL IN THE FORM OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ANY OF THIS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE SFC. IN ANY CASE...THE PROB FOR
ISO SHOWERS LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED FOR AREAS ALONG/E OF I-65 WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...AND AS SUCH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS/GUSTS HAVE ALSO BEEN REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...COLD FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH NW
WINDS AROUND 10-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WELL IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
CIGS HAVE ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
LATE MORNING HRS BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BREAK FROM THE W WITH
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. VFR CONDS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE ONSET
OF THE EVENING PERIOD FRI.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 300458 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1058 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW
PRETTY WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WIND...HAVE KEPT TEMP
TRENDS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY
FALL MORE INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS N OF THE AREA MAY SKIRT THE FAR ERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL IN THE FORM OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ANY OF THIS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE SFC. IN ANY CASE...THE PROB FOR
ISO SHOWERS LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED FOR AREAS ALONG/E OF I-65 WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...AND AS SUCH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS/GUSTS HAVE ALSO BEEN REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...COLD FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH NW
WINDS AROUND 10-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WELL IN PLACE. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
CIGS HAVE ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
LATE MORNING HRS BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BREAK FROM THE W WITH
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. VFR CONDS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE ONSET
OF THE EVENING PERIOD FRI.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300355 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW
PRETTY WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WIND...HAVE KEPT TEMP
TRENDS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY
FALL MORE INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS N OF THE AREA MAY SKIRT THE FAR ERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL IN THE FORM OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ANY OF THIS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE SFC. IN ANY CASE...THE PROB FOR
ISO SHOWERS LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED FOR AREAS ALONG/E OF I-65 WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...AND AS SUCH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS/GUSTS HAVE ALSO BEEN REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO NW AL THIS
EARLY THU EVENING. SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE TURNING TOWARD THE
NW AROUND 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AT/JUST ABOVE 3K FT...WERE ALSO
TRAILING THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND THESE ALSO SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. OVERALL CONDS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS FRI...AS THE
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INCREASES OUT OF THE NNW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RATHER WARM FOR LATE JANUARY WEATHER
PREVAILED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE IN A SHORT ORDER...AS A COLD FRONT NOW REACHING FAR NW
ALABAMA SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH SW WINDS OF
OF 10-20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A RATHER DRY LOWER/MID ATMOSPHERE
AND MINIMAL FORCING.

A BUSY MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE BAJA WAS OVERSPREADING THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EASTWARD...
GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WERE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND HELP GENERATE A NEW SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOWS TO SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREAS TO START
A NEW WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ON-GOING PRECIP AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS (DESPITE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT)...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND A SHORT DURATION OF ANY
PRECIP...NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
JANUARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S TOMORROW...AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
SAT. IN THE MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL MOVE THIS DIRECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER TEXAS DURING SUNDAY...AND HEAD ENE
TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL WISE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (NORTH OF US)...PLACING
US IN THE WARMER/WETTER REGION OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THEREFORE
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP
BY THE AREA SUN EVENING...BRINGING NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THE CANADIAN HAVE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NW...HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWS DURING MON
MORNING. NO WINTRY WEATHER WOES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CHILLY NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES/EASTERN ALASKA...MAINLY IN THE 1040S TO 1050S MB
RANGE. COLD AIR SPILLING SE IN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THIS
COLD REGIME...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP IT AN ALL RAIN AFFAIR...BUT HAVE IT ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WED NIGHT. NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300355 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW
PRETTY WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WIND...HAVE KEPT TEMP
TRENDS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY...EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY
FALL MORE INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS N OF THE AREA MAY SKIRT THE FAR ERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL IN THE FORM OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ANY OF THIS
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE SFC. IN ANY CASE...THE PROB FOR
ISO SHOWERS LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED FOR AREAS ALONG/E OF I-65 WITH THE
PASSING FRONT...AND AS SUCH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS/GUSTS HAVE ALSO BEEN REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO NW AL THIS
EARLY THU EVENING. SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE TURNING TOWARD THE
NW AROUND 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AT/JUST ABOVE 3K FT...WERE ALSO
TRAILING THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND THESE ALSO SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. OVERALL CONDS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS FRI...AS THE
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INCREASES OUT OF THE NNW.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RATHER WARM FOR LATE JANUARY WEATHER
PREVAILED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE IN A SHORT ORDER...AS A COLD FRONT NOW REACHING FAR NW
ALABAMA SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH SW WINDS OF
OF 10-20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A RATHER DRY LOWER/MID ATMOSPHERE
AND MINIMAL FORCING.

A BUSY MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE BAJA WAS OVERSPREADING THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EASTWARD...
GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WERE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND HELP GENERATE A NEW SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOWS TO SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREAS TO START
A NEW WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ON-GOING PRECIP AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS (DESPITE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT)...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND A SHORT DURATION OF ANY
PRECIP...NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
JANUARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S TOMORROW...AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
SAT. IN THE MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL MOVE THIS DIRECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER TEXAS DURING SUNDAY...AND HEAD ENE
TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL WISE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (NORTH OF US)...PLACING
US IN THE WARMER/WETTER REGION OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THEREFORE
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP
BY THE AREA SUN EVENING...BRINGING NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THE CANADIAN HAVE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NW...HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWS DURING MON
MORNING. NO WINTRY WEATHER WOES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CHILLY NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES/EASTERN ALASKA...MAINLY IN THE 1040S TO 1050S MB
RANGE. COLD AIR SPILLING SE IN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THIS
COLD REGIME...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP IT AN ALL RAIN AFFAIR...BUT HAVE IT ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WED NIGHT. NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 292340 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RATHER WARM FOR LATE JANUARY WEATHER
PREVAILED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE IN A SHORT ORDER...AS A COLD FRONT NOW REACHING FAR NW
ALABAMA SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH SW WINDS OF
OF 10-20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A RATHER DRY LOWER/MID ATMOSPHERE
AND MINIMAL FORCING.

A BUSY MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE BAJA WAS OVERSPREADING THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EASTWARD...
GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WERE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND HELP GENERATE A NEW SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOWS TO SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREAS TO START
A NEW WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ON-GOING PRECIP AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS (DESPITE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT)...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND A SHORT DURATION OF ANY
PRECIP...NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
JANUARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S TOMORROW...AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
SAT. IN THE MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL MOVE THIS DIRECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER TEXAS DURING SUNDAY...AND HEAD ENE
TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL WISE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (NORTH OF US)...PLACING
US IN THE WARMER/WETTER REGION OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THEREFORE
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP
BY THE AREA SUN EVENING...BRINGING NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THE CANADIAN HAVE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NW...HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWS DURING MON
MORNING. NO WINTRY WEATHER WOES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CHILLY NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES/EASTERN ALASKA...MAINLY IN THE 1040S TO 1050S MB
RANGE. COLD AIR SPILLING SE IN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THIS
COLD REGIME...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP IT AN ALL RAIN AFFAIR...BUT HAVE IT ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WED NIGHT. NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO NW AL THIS
EARLY THU EVENING. SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE TURNING TOWARD THE
NW AROUND 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AT/JUST ABOVE 3K FT...WERE ALSO
TRAILING THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND THESE ALSO SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. OVERALL CONDS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS FRI...AS THE
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INCREASES OUT OF THE NNW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292340 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RATHER WARM FOR LATE JANUARY WEATHER
PREVAILED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE IN A SHORT ORDER...AS A COLD FRONT NOW REACHING FAR NW
ALABAMA SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH SW WINDS OF
OF 10-20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A RATHER DRY LOWER/MID ATMOSPHERE
AND MINIMAL FORCING.

A BUSY MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE BAJA WAS OVERSPREADING THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EASTWARD...
GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WERE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND HELP GENERATE A NEW SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOWS TO SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREAS TO START
A NEW WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ON-GOING PRECIP AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS (DESPITE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT)...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND A SHORT DURATION OF ANY
PRECIP...NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
JANUARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S TOMORROW...AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
SAT. IN THE MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL MOVE THIS DIRECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER TEXAS DURING SUNDAY...AND HEAD ENE
TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL WISE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (NORTH OF US)...PLACING
US IN THE WARMER/WETTER REGION OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THEREFORE
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP
BY THE AREA SUN EVENING...BRINGING NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THE CANADIAN HAVE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NW...HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWS DURING MON
MORNING. NO WINTRY WEATHER WOES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CHILLY NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES/EASTERN ALASKA...MAINLY IN THE 1040S TO 1050S MB
RANGE. COLD AIR SPILLING SE IN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THIS
COLD REGIME...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP IT AN ALL RAIN AFFAIR...BUT HAVE IT ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WED NIGHT. NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO NW AL THIS
EARLY THU EVENING. SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE TURNING TOWARD THE
NW AROUND 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AT/JUST ABOVE 3K FT...WERE ALSO
TRAILING THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND THESE ALSO SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. OVERALL CONDS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS FRI...AS THE
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INCREASES OUT OF THE NNW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 292128
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
328 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RATHER WARM FOR LATE JANUARY WEATHER
PREVAILED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE IN A SHORT ORDER...AS A COLD FRONT NOW REACHING FAR NW
ALABAMA SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH SW WINDS OF
OF 10-20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A RATHER DRY LOWER/MID ATMOSPHERE
AND MINIMAL FORCING.

A BUSY MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE BAJA WAS OVERSPREADING THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EASTWARD...
GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WERE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND HELP GENERATE A NEW SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOWS TO SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREAS TO START
A NEW WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ON-GOING PRECIP AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS (DESPITE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT)...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND A SHORT DURATION OF ANY
PRECIP...NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
JANUARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S TOMORROW...AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
SAT. IN THE MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL MOVE THIS DIRECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER TEXAS DURING SUNDAY...AND HEAD ENE
TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL WISE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (NORTH OF US)...PLACING
US IN THE WARMER/WETTER REGION OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THEREFORE
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP
BY THE AREA SUN EVENING...BRINGING NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THE CANADIAN HAVE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NW...HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWS DURING MON
MORNING. NO WINTRY WEATHER WOES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CHILLY NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES/EASTERN ALASKA...MAINLY IN THE 1040S TO 1050S MB
RANGE. COLD AIR SPILLING SE IN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THIS
COLD REGIME...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP IT AN ALL RAIN AFFAIR...BUT HAVE IT ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WED NIGHT. NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIGS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND
08Z AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL
REMAINING MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    34  44  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
SHOALS        33  45  26  51 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      34  45  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  42  25  48 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   33  44  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    33  44  25  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 292008 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO LESSEN POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO TAKING OUT ALL
BUT A 20 POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
PUSHING SE FROM MISSOURI HAS DELAYED RAIN INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. ALSO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIGS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND
08Z AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL
REMAINING MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 292008 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO LESSEN POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO TAKING OUT ALL
BUT A 20 POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
PUSHING SE FROM MISSOURI HAS DELAYED RAIN INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. ALSO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIGS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND
08Z AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL
REMAINING MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291916 CCB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE HAS CONCENTRATED MOISTURE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 800
MB AND 500 MB OVER A SWATH FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NE TENNESSEE
AND NE ALABAMA. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THIS
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EVAPORATING RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN
TRYING TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN TN AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING DOWNGLIDE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PUSHES IN CENTRAL AL AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SE FROM
MISSOURI...INDIANA...AND ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AROUND 2 PM AND BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. AGAIN MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS.

DUE TO EARLY DISPERSION OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NW AL AND AROUND 60
AROUND I-65. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH MODELS FORECASTING DECENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM IN SW FLOW.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIGS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND
08Z AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL
REMAINING MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291740 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE HAS CONCENTRATED MOISTURE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 800
MB AND 500 MB OVER A SWATH FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NE TENNESSEE
AND NE ALABAMA. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THIS
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EVAPORATING RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN
TRYING TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN TN AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING DOWNGLIDE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PUSHES IN CENTRAL AL AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SE FROM
MISSOURI...INDIANA...AND ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AROUND 2 PM AND BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. AGAIN MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS.

DUE TO EARLY DISPERSION OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NW AL AND AROUND 60
AROUND I-65. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH MODELS FORECASTING DECENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM IN SW FLOW.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND 08Z
AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL REMAINING
MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291740 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE HAS CONCENTRATED MOISTURE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 800
MB AND 500 MB OVER A SWATH FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NE TENNESSEE
AND NE ALABAMA. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THIS
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EVAPORATING RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN
TRYING TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN TN AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING DOWNGLIDE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PUSHES IN CENTRAL AL AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SE FROM
MISSOURI...INDIANA...AND ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AROUND 2 PM AND BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. AGAIN MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS.

DUE TO EARLY DISPERSION OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NW AL AND AROUND 60
AROUND I-65. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH MODELS FORECASTING DECENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM IN SW FLOW.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND 08Z
AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL REMAINING
MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291635 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER/POPS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE HAS CONCENTRATED MOISTURE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 800
MB AND 500 MB OVER A SWATH FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NE TENNESSEE
AND NE ALABAMA. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THIS
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EVAPORATING RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN
TRYING TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN TN AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING DOWNGLIDE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE AS IT PUSHES IN CENTRAL AL AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SE FROM
MISSOURI...INDIANA...AND ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AROUND 2 PM AND BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. AGAIN MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS.

DUE TO EARLY DISPERSION OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NW AL AND AROUND 60
AROUND I-65. THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH MODELS FORECASTING DECENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM IN SW FLOW.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

ISOL-SCT -RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS N AL THROUGH 29/21Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SHRA SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
WITH KHSV BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL AFFECTED AFTER 29/21Z. THEN A LOW
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN BEGINING AT 29/20-29/21Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 29/20-29/21Z AND NW BY 30/00-30/01Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. THIS WAVE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HOWEVER...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH A 40-50 KNOT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
GENERATE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL LIKELY FALL
AS VIRGA...WE DID CARRY LOW POPS FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS -- BASED ON STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BISECTING THE REGION FROM
SW-TO-NE AROUND 00Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65 AS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT INTERACTS WITH LIFT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY -- IF NOT LONGER -- AND THIS COUPLED WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. ADVECTION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
40S...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF STRATUS CLOUDS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING
OF ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MID
20S...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY STATED IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST --
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THICKEN/LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LATEST NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BECOME CONSOLIDATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH...REACHING
NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
COOL-SECTOR LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE RETAINED A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
COLUMN COOLS BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER/SLIGHTLY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE
FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING EJECTION OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW -- WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
ON TUESDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND INITIATE A NEW GULF LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291143 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. THIS WAVE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HOWEVER...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH A 40-50 KNOT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
GENERATE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL LIKELY FALL
AS VIRGA...WE DID CARRY LOW POPS FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS -- BASED ON STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BISECTING THE REGION FROM
SW-TO-NE AROUND 00Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65 AS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT INTERACTS WITH LIFT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY -- IF NOT LONGER -- AND THIS COUPLED WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. ADVECTION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
40S...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF STRATUS CLOUDS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING
OF ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MID
20S...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY STATED IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST --
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THICKEN/LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LATEST NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BECOME CONSOLIDATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH...REACHING
NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
COOL-SECTOR LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE RETAINED A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
COLUMN COOLS BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER/SLIGHTLY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE
FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING EJECTION OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW -- WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
ON TUESDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND INITIATE A NEW GULF LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

ISOL-SCT -RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS N AL THROUGH 29/21Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SHRA SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
WITH KHSV BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL AFFECTED AFTER 29/21Z. THEN A LOW
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN BEGINING AT 29/20-29/21Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 29/20-29/21Z AND NW BY 30/00-30/01Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291143 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. THIS WAVE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HOWEVER...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH A 40-50 KNOT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
GENERATE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL LIKELY FALL
AS VIRGA...WE DID CARRY LOW POPS FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS -- BASED ON STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BISECTING THE REGION FROM
SW-TO-NE AROUND 00Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65 AS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT INTERACTS WITH LIFT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY -- IF NOT LONGER -- AND THIS COUPLED WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. ADVECTION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
40S...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF STRATUS CLOUDS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING
OF ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MID
20S...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY STATED IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST --
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THICKEN/LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LATEST NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BECOME CONSOLIDATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH...REACHING
NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
COOL-SECTOR LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE RETAINED A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
COLUMN COOLS BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER/SLIGHTLY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE
FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING EJECTION OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW -- WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
ON TUESDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND INITIATE A NEW GULF LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

ISOL-SCT -RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS N AL THROUGH 29/21Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SHRA SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
WITH KHSV BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL AFFECTED AFTER 29/21Z. THEN A LOW
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN BEGINING AT 29/20-29/21Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 29/20-29/21Z AND NW BY 30/00-30/01Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291131
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. THIS WAVE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HOWEVER...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH A 40-50 KNOT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
GENERATE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL LIKELY FALL
AS VIRGA...WE DID CARRY LOW POPS FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS -- BASED ON STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BISECTING THE REGION FROM
SW-TO-NE AROUND 00Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65 AS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT INTERACTS WITH LIFT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY -- IF NOT LONGER -- AND THIS COUPLED WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. ADVECTION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
40S...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF STRATUS CLOUDS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING
OF ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MID
20S...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY STATED IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST --
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THICKEN/LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LATEST NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BECOME CONSOLIDATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH...REACHING
NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
COOL-SECTOR LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE RETAINED A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
COLUMN COOLS BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER/SLIGHTLY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE
FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING EJECTION OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW -- WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
ON TUESDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND INITIATE A NEW GULF LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1052 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH 2-3KFT CIGS MOVING IN BY 21Z. THIS
TIMING COULD BE OFF A HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO ADDED -RA TO THIS SET OF TAFS EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS...IT COULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
BELOW 1500FT BY 00-01Z FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  35  45  26 /  30  20   0   0
SHOALS        63  35  46  26 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      60  35  45  26 /  20  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  58  33  42  23 /  30  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   58  34  44  27 /  20  30   0   0
FORT PAYNE    58  35  45  26 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291131
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. THIS WAVE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HOWEVER...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH A 40-50 KNOT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
GENERATE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL LIKELY FALL
AS VIRGA...WE DID CARRY LOW POPS FOR THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS -- BASED ON STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING -- ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BISECTING THE REGION FROM
SW-TO-NE AROUND 00Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65 AS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT INTERACTS WITH LIFT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY -- IF NOT LONGER -- AND THIS COUPLED WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. ADVECTION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
40S...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF STRATUS CLOUDS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID CLEARING
OF ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MID
20S...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY STATED IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST --
PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THICKEN/LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LATEST NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BECOME CONSOLIDATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH...REACHING
NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
COOL-SECTOR LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND HAVE RETAINED A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
COLUMN COOLS BELOW FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER/SLIGHTLY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE
FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING EJECTION OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW -- WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
ON TUESDAY. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
INTO A WAVE AND INITIATE A NEW GULF LOW...WHICH MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1052 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH 2-3KFT CIGS MOVING IN BY 21Z. THIS
TIMING COULD BE OFF A HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO ADDED -RA TO THIS SET OF TAFS EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS...IT COULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
BELOW 1500FT BY 00-01Z FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  35  45  26 /  30  20   0   0
SHOALS        63  35  46  26 /  20  10   0   0
VINEMONT      60  35  45  26 /  20  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  58  33  42  23 /  30  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   58  34  44  27 /  20  30   0   0
FORT PAYNE    58  35  45  26 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 290452 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 901 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 03Z. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN THE EASTERN AREAS...TEMPS STILL
HAVE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO GET COLDER. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WESTERN AREAS HAD TO GO UP A DEG OR TWO AND EASTERN
WERE GENERALLY STEADY WITH FORT PAYNE EXPECTED TO GET AROUND FREEZING
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH 2-3KFT CIGS MOVING IN BY 21Z. THIS
TIMING COULD BE OFF A HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO ADDED -RA TO THIS SET OF TAFS EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS...IT COULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
BELOW 1500FT BY 00-01Z FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 290452 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 901 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 03Z. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN THE EASTERN AREAS...TEMPS STILL
HAVE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO GET COLDER. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WESTERN AREAS HAD TO GO UP A DEG OR TWO AND EASTERN
WERE GENERALLY STEADY WITH FORT PAYNE EXPECTED TO GET AROUND FREEZING
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH 2-3KFT CIGS MOVING IN BY 21Z. THIS
TIMING COULD BE OFF A HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO ADDED -RA TO THIS SET OF TAFS EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS...IT COULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
BELOW 1500FT BY 00-01Z FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290301 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 03Z. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN THE EASTERN AREAS...TEMPS STILL
HAVE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO GET COLDER. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WESTERN AREAS HAD TO GO UP A DEG OR TWO AND EASTERN
WERE GENERALLY STEADY WITH FORT PAYNE EXPECTED TO GET AROUND FREEZING
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 525 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER AND
EVENTUALLY REACH 2-3KFT BY 21Z THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE LOWER OF
THE CIGS COULD BE OFF +- AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL THURSDAY EVENING BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WERE SLOWLY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SE. MID
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ALOFT...A NW FLOW CONTINUED FROM THE NE PLAINS TO THE SE COAST AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WAS HOWEVER BECOMING A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AFFAIR...
AS A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 10N120W
HEADS TOWARDS THE DESERT SW.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM (OR CLIPPER) MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IN A
STILL BUSY NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ESE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
TOMORROW. MODEL OUTPUT EVEN IN THIS SHORT RANGE WAS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM/SREF THE DRIEST...THE GFS/GEM A TAD
WETTER...AND ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN A DRY TREND FROM THE NAM AND
ITS ENSEMBLE...HAVE DELAYED THE START FOR "CHANCE" POPS UNTIL THU
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THU
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AL/TN STATE BORDER. GIVEN
THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE POST SYSTEM COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE
HELD ONTO ALL LIQUID PRECIP THU EVENING.

AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA WAS
MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. MODEL GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
MAKER IS SET TO FORM...AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT REGIONS. IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THIS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
WHEN RAIN SHOULD BEGIN...WITH THE CANADIAN NOT BRINGING THE BULK OF
ITS PRECIP TILL AFTER SUNSET SUN EVENING. IN ANY CASE...SOUNDINGS
PROFILES LOOK TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER FOR OUR AREA. AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. GIVEN COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE SUN NIGHT TO A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK MON. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS...HIGHS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL...ONLY RISING TO
AROUND 50 SUN. WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...ONLY AROUND 40 TO
START A NEW WORK WEEK OR MON.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT MID WEEK. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS WETTER THAN THE
EC. THE LATTER HAS POSITIONED ITS DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE EC. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...STARTED THE PRECIP AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BECOMING ALL RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
525 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WERE SLOWLY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SE. MID
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ALOFT...A NW FLOW CONTINUED FROM THE NE PLAINS TO THE SE COAST AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WAS HOWEVER BECOMING A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AFFAIR...
AS A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 10N120W
HEADS TOWARDS THE DESERT SW.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM (OR CLIPPER) MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IN A
STILL BUSY NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ESE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
TOMORROW. MODEL OUTPUT EVEN IN THIS SHORT RANGE WAS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM/SREF THE DRIEST...THE GFS/GEM A TAD
WETTER...AND ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN A DRY TREND FROM THE NAM AND
ITS ENSEMBLE...HAVE DELAYED THE START FOR "CHANCE" POPS UNTIL THU
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THU
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AL/TN STATE BORDER. GIVEN
THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE POST SYSTEM COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE
HELD ONTO ALL LIQUID PRECIP THU EVENING.

AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA WAS
MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. MODEL GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
MAKER IS SET TO FORM...AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT REGIONS. IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THIS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
WHEN RAIN SHOULD BEGIN...WITH THE CANADIAN NOT BRINGING THE BULK OF
ITS PRECIP TILL AFTER SUNSET SUN EVENING. IN ANY CASE...SOUNDINGS
PROFILES LOOK TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER FOR OUR AREA. AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. GIVEN COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE SUN NIGHT TO A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK MON. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS...HIGHS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL...ONLY RISING TO
AROUND 50 SUN. WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...ONLY AROUND 40 TO
START A NEW WORK WEEK OR MON.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT MID WEEK. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS WETTER THAN THE
EC. THE LATTER HAS POSITIONED ITS DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE EC. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...STARTED THE PRECIP AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BECOMING ALL RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER AND
EVENTUALLY REACH 2-3KFT BY 21Z THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE LOWER OF
THE CIGS COULD BE OFF +- AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL THURSDAY EVENING BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WERE SLOWLY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SE. MID
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ALOFT...A NW FLOW CONTINUED FROM THE NE PLAINS TO THE SE COAST AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WAS HOWEVER BECOMING A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AFFAIR...
AS A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 10N120W
HEADS TOWARDS THE DESERT SW.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM (OR CLIPPER) MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IN A
STILL BUSY NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ESE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
TOMORROW. MODEL OUTPUT EVEN IN THIS SHORT RANGE WAS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM/SREF THE DRIEST...THE GFS/GEM A TAD
WETTER...AND ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN A DRY TREND FROM THE NAM AND
ITS ENSEMBLE...HAVE DELAYED THE START FOR "CHANCE" POPS UNTIL THU
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THU
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AL/TN STATE BORDER. GIVEN
THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE POST SYSTEM COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE
HELD ONTO ALL LIQUID PRECIP THU EVENING.

AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA WAS
MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. MODEL GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
MAKER IS SET TO FORM...AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT REGIONS. IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THIS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
WHEN RAIN SHOULD BEGIN...WITH THE CANADIAN NOT BRINGING THE BULK OF
ITS PRECIP TILL AFTER SUNSET SUN EVENING. IN ANY CASE...SOUNDINGS
PROFILES LOOK TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER FOR OUR AREA. AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. GIVEN COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE SUN NIGHT TO A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK MON. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS...HIGHS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL...ONLY RISING TO
AROUND 50 SUN. WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...ONLY AROUND 40 TO
START A NEW WORK WEEK OR MON.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT MID WEEK. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS WETTER THAN THE
EC. THE LATTER HAS POSITIONED ITS DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE EC. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...STARTED THE PRECIP AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BECOMING ALL RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH PREDOM
JUST SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. LOWER CLOUDS...WITH BASES AOA 5-7K
FT WILL THEN BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WNW LATE THU
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  57  33  46 /  10  30  10   0
SHOALS        39  58  32  46 /  10  30  10   0
VINEMONT      39  57  33  46 /   0  30  20   0
FAYETTEVILLE  37  54  32  43 /  10  30  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   35  55  34  45 /   0  30  20   0
FORT PAYNE    34  55  33  46 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 282126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
326 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. THIS HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WERE SLOWLY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SE. MID
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ALOFT...A NW FLOW CONTINUED FROM THE NE PLAINS TO THE SE COAST AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WAS HOWEVER BECOMING A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AFFAIR...
AS A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 10N120W
HEADS TOWARDS THE DESERT SW.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM (OR CLIPPER) MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IN A
STILL BUSY NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ESE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
TOMORROW. MODEL OUTPUT EVEN IN THIS SHORT RANGE WAS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM/SREF THE DRIEST...THE GFS/GEM A TAD
WETTER...AND ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN A DRY TREND FROM THE NAM AND
ITS ENSEMBLE...HAVE DELAYED THE START FOR "CHANCE" POPS UNTIL THU
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THU
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AL/TN STATE BORDER. GIVEN
THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE POST SYSTEM COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE
HELD ONTO ALL LIQUID PRECIP THU EVENING.

AN UPPER SYSTEM NOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA WAS
MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE. MODEL GUIDANCE
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
MAKER IS SET TO FORM...AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT REGIONS. IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THIS AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
WHEN RAIN SHOULD BEGIN...WITH THE CANADIAN NOT BRINGING THE BULK OF
ITS PRECIP TILL AFTER SUNSET SUN EVENING. IN ANY CASE...SOUNDINGS
PROFILES LOOK TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER FOR OUR AREA. AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. GIVEN COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE SUN NIGHT TO A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK MON. WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS...HIGHS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL...ONLY RISING TO
AROUND 50 SUN. WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...ONLY AROUND 40 TO
START A NEW WORK WEEK OR MON.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT MID WEEK. THE GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS WETTER THAN THE
EC. THE LATTER HAS POSITIONED ITS DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE EC. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...STARTED THE PRECIP AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BECOMING ALL RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH PREDOM
JUST SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. LOWER CLOUDS...WITH BASES AOA 5-7K
FT WILL THEN BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WNW LATE THU
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    38  57  33  46 /  10  30  10   0
SHOALS        39  58  32  46 /  10  30  10   0
VINEMONT      39  57  33  46 /   0  30  20   0
FAYETTEVILLE  37  54  32  43 /  10  30  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   35  55  34  45 /   0  30  20   0
FORT PAYNE    34  55  33  46 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281748 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1042 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO SKY COVER GRIDS. OVERALL...A
BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION...AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED...AT LEAST SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY RETURN FLOW
IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
FORECASTED VALUES IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRANSMITTED.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH PREDOM
JUST SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. LOWER CLOUDS...WITH BASES AOA 5-7K
FT WILL THEN BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WNW LATE THU
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281748 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1042 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO SKY COVER GRIDS. OVERALL...A
BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION...AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED...AT LEAST SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY RETURN FLOW
IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
FORECASTED VALUES IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRANSMITTED.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH PREDOM
JUST SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. LOWER CLOUDS...WITH BASES AOA 5-7K
FT WILL THEN BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WNW LATE THU
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281642
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1042 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO SKY COVER GRIDS. OVERALL...A
BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION...AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED...AT LEAST SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY RETURN FLOW
IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
FORECASTED VALUES IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRANSMITTED.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 513 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KHSV UNTIL
28/14Z WHEN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN THROUGH 29/12Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 244 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
PESKY BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A ELKMONT-
DECATUR-CULLMAN LINE. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE IN THIS
LAYER WILL ERODE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN SOLAR HEATING AND THE RIDGE AXIS/DRIER AIR SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KNOCK AT LEAST 3-5 DEGREES OFF OF
MAXES THAT WERE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM NOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS BUT MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 40 IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THRU RATHER QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GENERATING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE -SHRA, WITH A SECONDARY
SHOT WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. NEITHER SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
RATHER NICELY INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE THE CLOUDS DUE
TO THE WARM ADVECTION. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE
RATHER CHILLY AND BRISK. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR
FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYS OUT THE ATMO ON FRIDAY.

STILL SHAPING TO BE A RATHER WET SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WRT STRENGTH AND TILT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ADVECTS A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF HAVING A STRONGER SOUTHERLY LLJ.
HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE CURRENT FORECAST MUCH HOWEVER AS BASIC TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA IS EXPECTED. STILL QUESTIONABLE ON ADDING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO APPRECIABLE ELEVATED CAPE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED STORMS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING AREAWIDE. THE ECMWF
SWEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MORE QUICKLY
THAN THE GFS WHICH OFFERS A CHC OF -SNSH OR FLURRIES. WOULD RATHER
SEE MORE CONSISTENCY, BUT GIVEN OFFICE COLLABORATION, WILL GO WITH A
SCHC OF -RA/SN TRANSITION 06-12Z MONDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281642
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1042 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO SKY COVER GRIDS. OVERALL...A
BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION...AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED...AT LEAST SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY RETURN FLOW
IN WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
FORECASTED VALUES IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRANSMITTED.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 513 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KHSV UNTIL
28/14Z WHEN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN THROUGH 29/12Z.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 244 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/
PESKY BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COVERED AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A ELKMONT-
DECATUR-CULLMAN LINE. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE IN THIS
LAYER WILL ERODE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN SOLAR HEATING AND THE RIDGE AXIS/DRIER AIR SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KNOCK AT LEAST 3-5 DEGREES OFF OF
MAXES THAT WERE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM NOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS BUT MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 40 IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THRU RATHER QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION GENERATING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE -SHRA, WITH A SECONDARY
SHOT WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. NEITHER SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
RATHER NICELY INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE THE CLOUDS DUE
TO THE WARM ADVECTION. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE
RATHER CHILLY AND BRISK. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR
FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYS OUT THE ATMO ON FRIDAY.

STILL SHAPING TO BE A RATHER WET SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WRT STRENGTH AND TILT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND ADVECTS A BIT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF HAVING A STRONGER SOUTHERLY LLJ.
HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE CURRENT FORECAST MUCH HOWEVER AS BASIC TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA IS EXPECTED. STILL QUESTIONABLE ON ADDING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO APPRECIABLE ELEVATED CAPE SHOWING UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED STORMS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING AREAWIDE. THE ECMWF
SWEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MORE QUICKLY
THAN THE GFS WHICH OFFERS A CHC OF -SNSH OR FLURRIES. WOULD RATHER
SEE MORE CONSISTENCY, BUT GIVEN OFFICE COLLABORATION, WILL GO WITH A
SCHC OF -RA/SN TRANSITION 06-12Z MONDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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