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000
FXUS64 KHUN 260849
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper level disturbance is the cause for the isolated light
showers that moved through overnight. Showers are a bit more
scattered in nature over TN, but based on latest movement of these
features the showers should stay out of the forecast area. Models are
all in agreement in keeping almost the entire region dry for today.
The CAMs indicate a few isolated showers developing over central MS
this afternoon and may approach our far western counties. When
attempting to determine what they could be generating this convection
on, noticed a region of depressed temps and dewpoints over NE MS/W
AL. Dewpoints were in the 60s but areas to the west were upwards of
70 degrees and east in the mid 60s. So, this temp/dewpoint difference
might be enough to spark a few isolated showers. Have nudged PoPs up
along the MS/AL border to account for this but values are still 20
percent or less. High temps for this afternoon will be similar to
Wed. with values in the upper 80s.

A strong low pressure system is expected to eject NE out of the four
corners region into the SW plains this afternoon. Widespread
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over much of the central and
southern plains as a result of this wave. One uncertainty in the
forecast for tonight is whether any of this activity is able to make
it far enough east and enter the TN Valley. Most of the models have
activity tapering off as it nears the area due to the strength of the
ridge to our east. Have opted to keep the forecast dry for tonight
because of this but could see a few stray showers/tstorms hold
together long enough to make it into NW AL.

The low shifts into the central plains on Friday and will also be
accompanied by a few additional shortwaves lifting out of TX. These
weak shortwaves should provide just enough forcing to spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Models are surprisingly in
agreement in generating isolated convection over the Appalachians
Friday afternoon and have nudged PoPs up a bit for our eastern
counties.

Memorial Day weekend will be fairly typical for this time of year
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s. All
models develop a subtropical system off the SC/GA/FL coast Friday
into Saturday. The high to our east shifts further eastward as this
system heads towards the coast. In response to this it looks like a
wedge front develops and may lead to better low level convergence.
This combined with a shortwave should allow for more scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon. Activity
will be focused across the western half of the area where dewpoints
will be a bit higher. Ridging begins to redevelop over the area on
Sunday and should keep the storm over the East coast. As we continue
through the Memorial Day weekend expect temps to warm slightly with
highs likely reaching above the 90 degree mark and isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. The ridge remains in place through much of
next week and expect a continuation of upper 80s to near 90 degree
temps and isolated afternoon convection.

Stumpf

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1213 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
For 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at the kmsl
and khsv terminals. High pressure will help keep conditions dry, with
clouds remaining well above 3000 ft. Winds will generally be from
the south-southwest.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    89  67  87  67 /  10  10  20  20
Shoals        89  67  87  67 /  10  10  20  20
Vinemont      87  66  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
Fayetteville  87  66  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
Albertville   87  65  86  65 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Payne    86  64  85  63 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 260208 AAB
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
908 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms, that developed along an outflow boundary
from morning activity, have all but dissipated across the forecast
area. The 00z upper air sounding from KBMX shows the dry air still
in place across much of the region, with surface dewpoints remaining
in the mid to upper 50s. As a weak upper level shortwave passes, and
upper level ridging builds in, high clouds will continue to move over
the area, however no precip will occur. Temperatures are a bit
tricky, given rain cooled air across the west. However, weak
southerly flow and high cloud cover will keep temperatures from
plummeting too much more and temps across the west will likely
rebound by a degree or two before reaching forecast minimums in the
mid to upper 60s. Only changes made to the previous forecast were to
account for hourly trends. Remainder of the forecast seems to be on
track.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
For 00Z TAFs:

Bit of a low confidence forecast through the next few hours. A
weakening line of storms was entering AL, with most of the thunder
activity diminishing as it enters. Based on the trends over the last
hour or so, think that the showers will enter the KMSL terminal
within the hour, however not anticipating thunder to accompany the
showers. Therefore, have included VCTS to account for the
uncertainty. This line is expected to diminish before reaching the
KHSV terminal and have included VCSH in the TAF. Amendments may be
necessary if the line does not continue to diminish as anticipated.
Once this line moves through, dry conditions will prevail through the
period, and only high clouds are forecast to impact the terminals.
Winds will generally be from the southwest.

73

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 251157
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
657 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
Relatively quiet wx conditions once again prevail across the cntrl
TN Valley this early Wed morning, under partly cloudy skies and temp
trends predom in the 60s. Weak upper disturbance which moved across
the Mid South Region late yesterday evening has well dissipated,
other than some very light returns lingering over mid TN. Upper
ridge pattern continues to become somewhat established over the SE
states, while high pressure at the sfc translates ewd into the
mid/srn Atlantic Basin. With the sfc high well to the e, return/sly
flow is well entrenched across the region, allowing Gulf moisture to
gradually stream back into the area. Slightly warmer temps should
also be the trend later Today, with the upper ridge well in place
now. Afternoon highs climbing more toward the upper 80s look to
develop mainly over the cntrl/wrn zones. Latest model suites are
hinting at some additional weak upper disturbances traversing ewd
over the Mid South/Mid TN Valley Regions later Today as well, and
may result in a few showers/tstms near the mid TN/AL border.

The seasonably warm pattern will continue Tonight and into the
latter half of the work week, with overnight lows trending mainly in
the mid 60s. Afternoon temps approaching the upper 80s to near 90F
look reasonable as well going into Thu, as the upper ridge becomes a
bit better established over the far sern states. However, latest
models are still showing the prob for an upper disturbance or two
possibly making it into the Mid TN Valley again on Thu providing for
a few showers/tstms over the srn Mid TN counties.

Rain chances still look to return for all of the local area by Fri,
as the upper ridge pattern over the SE region drifts ewd and the
flow pattern becomes a bit more active out of the sw. The latter
half of the model spread is still hinting at some additional upper
waves beginning to move newd across parts of the area starting Fri.
With a light return flow pattern keeping some moisture advection in
place, this at warrants a slight chc for showers/tstms heading into
the weekend period, consistent with the current forecast. The flow
pattern may become a bit more active as the new work week begins, as
deep upper troughing to the w shifts slightly to the e allowing a
few more of these upper disturbances to affect the region.

Overall temps this weekend period and into next week look to remain
seasonably warm, with most of the region remaining under the
influence of the Subtropical ridge well to the se. Afternoon highs
mainly in the mid/upper 80s look to prevail while overnight lows
predom hold in the mid 60s.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs: Weak upper-air disturbance continues to push slowly ewd
across the region this morning, with bkn altostratus deck and some
virga/light sprinkles expected to persist thru 16z. This will be
replaced later this morning by sct-bkn ci debris clouds originating
from MCS currently across western AR. Although bulk of pcpn
associated with this feature will likely be steered to the n/w of the
region, amds to include shra/tsra may be required later this aftn.
Another weak disturbance will push across the area late tonight,
bringing thicker mid/high-level clouds once again. A slightly greater
threat for a few showers also will exist as the low-level jet
strengthens after dark. Sw sfc flow in the 5-10 kt range will back to
sse and diminish after sunset.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 250212
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
912 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temps across the cwa at 9 pm were in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Dewpoints were between 55 and 60 degrees. Convection now over sern
MO/nern AR/wrn TN will have a hard time moving east overnight due to
a large sfc high over much of the sern US. Also 00z u/a soundings
from OHX/BMX were fairly dry in the mid/lower levels. Did adjust pops
up a little over nw AL but still under 15 percent. New NAM model
coming in has all pcpn dissipating before in reaches the TN Valley
overnight. There may be a sprinkle or two over extreme nw AL but the
coverage and intensity should be very isolated. Otherwise did not
make any other changes to the fcst attm.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 559 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: A sfc high covers much of the sern us along with a
weak upper ridge. Convection over AR/MO will dissipate as it tries to
move east tonight. This is due to subsidence across the area and a
fairy dry atmosphere from 7H to the sfc. However will have sct/bkn
ci across the taf sites thru the fcst period. Otherwise vfr
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours for both KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 242009
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A quasi-Omega pattern is setup over much of North America with
evidence of its gradual demise already showing within water vapor
sat imagery. This pattern is characterized by an upper low off the
CONUS Atlantic coast, ridging over the Midwest/Southeast and upper
low over the Western half of the country. The curious thing about
the Western half of the Omega block is there are several shortwave
troughs within the primary upper low. The sensible impacts to the TN
Valley forecast will be a gradual increase in low-mid levels, warm
daytime high temperatures in the 80s, and increasing chances for
thunderstorms beginning Memorial Day Weekend.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The prevailing NW flow aloft on the western flank of the
aforementioned upper low just off the New England coast has brought
a generally subsident environment across the Southeast. An impact of
this subsident, dry environment is the air quality alerts that are in
effect for nearby metro areas of Birmingham, Nashville, and Atlanta.
Will continue to monitor our area in case we need one over the coming
days.

For tonight, expect pleasant, warm conditions to prevail with
overnight lows expected to be a little warmer in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Wednesday`s forecast should be similar to today`s weather
with daytime highs rising into the upper 80s (if not 90). However, as
the upper low continues to move off to the northeast, weakly
amplified shortwaves moving within the subtropical jet edging towards
the TN valley may in fact bring isolated/scattered thunderstorms over
MS/OH river valleys. Though a few of these storms may move close to
the TN valley, anticipating that the dry air over the TN valley will
likely cause these storms to dissipate before arrival. So, the main
impact may be more cloud cover.

The ridge amplifies across the MS/TN river valleys on Thursday and
am slightly increasing daytime highs. With subsident profile
increasing once again on Thursday, have kept a dry, but warm
forecast. However, surface dewpoints will likely be higher given the
movement of the sfc high pressure system eastward over the Atlantic
yielding moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico/western Atlantic.

As the upper flow pattern continues to shift, several shortwave
troughs over the western half of the country will continue to bring
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over those areas. In
fact, an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the Central and Southern Plains into the Ozarks on
Friday. In addition, the movement of the Southeast/OH River Valley
ridge eastward towards the Atlantic (that had been in place on
Thursday) will likely lend towards greater possibility of isolated
afternoon thunderstorms developing over the TN Valley especially over
NW Alabama.

The model depiction of the pattern change for the weekend is rather
chaotic due to what looks to be a tropical/subtropical disturbance
forming just off the Florida Atlantic Coastline underneath the
ridge on Saturday. Meanwhile that Plains shortwave trough will be
moving over the Midwest and Northern Plains effectively up/over the
ridge. The primary impact from the trajectory of that tropical
disturbance (if that model solution verifies) would likely be dry
air inhibiting storm growth. Though the tropical disturbance will
likely not indirectly impact storm growth on Saturday/Sunday,
isolated thunderstorms would still be possible on both days mainly
due to daytime heating. The nature of these storms would tend
towards pulse-like updrafts with quick episodes of rain.

Though higher chances of showers/storms are currently in the
forecast exist on Memorial Day/Tuesday, have included low chance
pops mainly due to aforementioned dry air that would inhibit storm
development.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conds prevail at HSV/MSL this aftn...with only
clouds expected to consist of a few high-based cu beneath sct
ac/ci. Although majority of the cloud cover will dissipate early this
evening...a weakening upper-air disturbance currently over AR/OK will
approach region from the west resulting in development of a thicker
deck of mid/high-lvl clouds prior to sunrise. Due to weakening nature
of the disturbance and lingering dry air across the region, any
associated shra/tsra should remain to the N/W of the region. Sfc
winds will fluctuate within the 4-8 kt range, with sw flow expected
during the daylight hrs and sse flow at night.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    60  89  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
Shoals        63  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
Vinemont      61  86  64  86 /   0  10  10  10
Fayetteville  62  86  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
Albertville   60  86  63  87 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Payne    59  86  63  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 240207
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
907 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Tweaked sky grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still have ci clouds moving se across the wrn half of the cwa from
convection over the midwest. Made a few adjustment to sky cover,
otherwise rest of the fcst looks good attm. Expect mild and dry
conditions across the cwa tonight, thanks to a weak area of high
pressure.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 527 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: Blow off clouds (AOA 10,000 ft) from convection across
the midwest will move across the taf sites for much of this fcst
period. Otherwise expect vfr conditions for the next 24 hours at both
KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through
tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block
continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate
with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield
overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. With calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and decoupling overnight, could see some patchy fog
mainly near the rivers, lakes, and valleys overnight.

Sensible weather impacts for Tuesday should not be much different
from today over the TN valley as the Omega block gradually begins to
shift to the east. The main difference will be cloud cover from
upstream convective activity. As a result, the sfc high pressure
system moves atop the TN valley with little in the way of moisture
advection noted. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while
dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.

Then, on Wednesday as the synoptic ridge dampens across the
Southeast and the upper low over the Intermountain West begins to
shift east, the synoptic models are showing less subsidence and
moisture advection developing. Curiously, the orientation of flow
pattern in the low-mid levels look to actually bring moisture
originating from the western Atlantic across GA to AL. However, it
looks like this will not be strong enough to saturate the vertical
column as forecast model soundings show dry profiles. Because of
this and lack of appreciable lifting mechanism, have removed
isolated thunderstorms from the forecast on Wednesday.

Subsidence continues to subside on Thursday/into the beginning of
Memorial Day weekend (Friday), but with SW flow aloft developing as
the subtropical jet becomes oriented across the Southeast, above
seasonably warm conditions are anticipated with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. A couple of mid-level shortwave troughs moving within the
subtropical jet may provide just enough lift for isolated to
scattered ordinary thunderstorms to develop on Thursday into Friday.
The thunderstorms would likely be more pulse-like in nature with the
highest threat over northwest Alabama and Western TN/Northern MS.

The rest of the Memorial Day weekend looks to be more summer-like
with warm temperatures approaching 90 degrees while humidity
increases. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms look possible with the
upper flow pattern exhibiting dampened ridging aloft across much of
the Southeast.

SL.77

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 232227
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
527 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
(Issued 253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016)

The overall weather pattern remains beholden to an Omega block
pattern that is in place across North America east of the west
coast. There are actually two troughs (one in the polar jet over MT,
the other in the subtropical jet just approaching central CA) that
comprise the western trough of the Omega block. Meanwhile, a ridge
is blocking any advancement of MCS or other convective activity from
the Plains towards the Southeast, while the eastern trough is over
New England. This pattern will gradually shift over the coming days
leaving the TN valley warm and dry initially, and then susceptible
to isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this week.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016)

Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through
tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block
continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate
with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield
overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. With calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and decoupling overnight, could see some patchy fog
mainly near the rivers, lakes, and valleys overnight.

Sensible weather impacts for Tuesday should not be much different
from today over the TN valley as the Omega block gradually begins to
shift to the east. The main difference will be cloud cover from
upstream convective activity. As a result, the sfc high pressure
system moves atop the TN valley with little in the way of moisture
advection noted. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while
dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.

Then, on Wednesday as the synoptic ridge dampens across the
Southeast and the upper low over the Intermountain West begins to
shift east, the synoptic models are showing less subsidence and
moisture advection developing. Curiously, the orientation of flow
pattern in the low-mid levels look to actually bring moisture
originating from the western Atlantic across GA to AL. However, it
looks like this will not be strong enough to saturate the vertical
column as forecast model soundings show dry profiles. Because of
this and lack of appreciable lifting mechanism, have removed
isolated thunderstorms from the forecast on Wednesday.

Subsidence continues to subside on Thursday/into the beginning of
Memorial Day weekend (Friday), but with SW flow aloft developing as
the subtropical jet becomes oriented across the Southeast, above
seasonably warm conditions are anticipated with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. A couple of mid-level shortwave troughs moving within the
subtropical jet may provide just enough lift for isolated to
scattered ordinary thunderstorms to develop on Thursday into Friday.
The thunderstorms would likely be more pulse-like in nature with the
highest threat over northwest Alabama and Western TN/Northern MS.

The rest of the Memorial Day weekend looks to be more summer-like
with warm temperatures approaching 90 degrees while humidity
increases. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms look possible with the
upper flow pattern exhibiting dampened ridging aloft across much of
the Southeast.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: Blow off clouds (AOA 10,000 ft) from convection across
the midwest will move across the taf sites for much of this fcst
period. Otherwise expect vfr conditions for the next 24 hours at both
KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 231953
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The overall weather pattern remains beholden to an Omega block
pattern that is in place across North America east of the west
coast. There are actually two troughs (one in the polar jet over MT,
the other in the subtropical jet just approaching central CA) that
comprise the western trough of the Omega block. Meanwhile, a ridge
is blocking any advancement of MCS or other convective activity from
the Plains towards the Southeast, while the eastern trough is over
New England. This pattern will gradually shift over the coming days
leaving the TN valley warm and dry initially, and then susceptible
to isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this week.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through
tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block
continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate
with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield
overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. With calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and decoupling overnight, could see some patchy fog
mainly near the rivers, lakes, and valleys overnight.

Sensible weather impacts for Tuesday should not be much different
from today over the TN valley as the Omega block gradually begins to
shift to the east. The main difference will be cloud cover from
upstream convective activity. As a result, the sfc high pressure
system moves atop the TN valley with little in the way of moisture
advection noted. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while
dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.

Then, on Wednesday as the synoptic ridge dampens across the
Southeast and the upper low over the Intermountain West begins to
shift east, the synoptic models are showing less subsidence and
moisture advection developing. Curiously, the orientation of flow
pattern in the low-mid levels look to actually bring moisture
originating from the western Atlantic across GA to AL. However, it
looks like this will not be strong enough to saturate the vertical
column as forecast model soundings show dry profiles. Because of
this and lack of appreciable lifting mechanism, have removed
isolated thunderstorms from the forecast on Wednesday.

Subsidence continues to subside on Thursday/into the beginning of
Memorial Day weekend (Friday), but with SW flow aloft developing as
the subtropical jet becomes oriented across the Southeast, above
seasonably warm conditions are anticipated with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. A couple of mid-level shortwave troughs moving within the
subtropical jet may provide just enough lift for isolated to
scattered ordinary thunderstorms to develop on Thursday into Friday.
The thunderstorms would likely be more pulse-like in nature with the
highest threat over northwest Alabama and Western TN/Northern MS.

The rest of the Memorial Day weekend looks to be more summer-like
with warm temperatures approaching 90 degrees while humidity
increases. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms look possible with the
upper flow pattern exhibiting dampened ridging aloft across much of
the Southeast.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1156 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    57  88  63  88 /   0   0  10  10
Shoals        57  87  62  89 /   0   0  10  10
Vinemont      55  86  62  86 /   0   0  10  10
Fayetteville  54  87  61  86 /   0   0  10  10
Albertville   54  86  61  86 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Payne    51  85  59  86 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.





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