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000
FXUS64 KHUN 171534 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1034 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WITH A WEDGE
RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THIS IS
A SET UP FOR SLIGHT COLD AIR DAMMING IN NE ALABAMA...KEPT THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 500
MB FLOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH
SCT CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ESE
FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. CI WILL LIKELY THICKEN BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARND 3500 FT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THE
EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING SECOND HALF OF TAF PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BKN
STRATOCU DECK ARND 3500 FT BENEATH BKN-OVC AS/CS DECKS. -RA MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 18/09-12Z BUT VIRGA APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN FORECAST ATTM. AFTER A BRISK SE FLOW AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK TO ESE AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171534 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1034 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED UP THE EAST COAST WITH A WEDGE
RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THIS IS
A SET UP FOR SLIGHT COLD AIR DAMMING IN NE ALABAMA...KEPT THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 500
MB FLOW AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY.

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH
SCT CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ESE
FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. CI WILL LIKELY THICKEN BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARND 3500 FT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THE
EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING SECOND HALF OF TAF PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BKN
STRATOCU DECK ARND 3500 FT BENEATH BKN-OVC AS/CS DECKS. -RA MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 18/09-12Z BUT VIRGA APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN FORECAST ATTM. AFTER A BRISK SE FLOW AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK TO ESE AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171204
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH
SCT CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING...ALONG WITH AN ESE
FLOW OF 5-10 KTS. CI WILL LIKELY THICKEN BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
STRATOCU CLOUDS ARND 3500 FT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...THE
EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING SECOND HALF OF TAF PERIOD...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BKN
STRATOCU DECK ARND 3500 FT BENEATH BKN-OVC AS/CS DECKS. -RA MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 18/09-12Z BUT VIRGA APPEARS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE PCPN IN FORECAST ATTM. AFTER A BRISK SE FLOW AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK TO ESE AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170545 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170545 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170212 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIED OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHICH EXTENDS SW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEN TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AT 9 PM. MOST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE NAM12 SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB COMPARED TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODEL THEN INCREASES WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING PUSHING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE...THINK COOLING WILL SLOW LATE
TONIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT AGAIN.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AL AND GA. THIS
WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 38 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THOSE AREAS...MAINLY AROUND
40 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG WITH FORECASTED UPSTREAM
ADVECTION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS. FORT PAYNE
AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA COULD SEE LOWS DROP TO BETWEEN
34 AND 37 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. COULD BE SOME VERY PATCHY FROST...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY COVERAGE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 162316 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 162021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  69  49  67 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        40  69  50  69 /   0  10  30  30
VINEMONT      40  68  48  66 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  38  68  47  65 /   0  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   40  67  48  64 /   0  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    37  67  46  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 162021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF LOWEST HEIGHTS GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. INSPECTION OF IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN
CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK 500-MB SHEAR AXIS -- CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY -- LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY
EASE ANY CONCERNS FOR FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WITH STRENGTHENING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRETCHED...WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DETACHED AND
BEGIN PHASING WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AS A PARTIALLY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES -- ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
06-12Z FRIDAY -- WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN LIKEWISE INCREASING
FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THIS PERIOD. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT UVM GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
EVOLVES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CUTOFF CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW/ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAINTAINING DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
LOBES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT...AND --
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM -- PERHAPS TUESDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    41  69  49  67 /   0  10  20  30
SHOALS        40  69  50  69 /   0  10  30  30
VINEMONT      40  68  48  66 /   0  10  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  38  68  47  65 /   0  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   40  67  48  64 /   0  10  20  20
FORT PAYNE    37  67  46  65 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161705 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161705 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 12-14 KTS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161551 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161551 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WERE AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK...HSV REACHING 33 DEGREES...MSL 36...DCU 32. LOCATIONS IN NE AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AND ASSISTED
WITH THE LACK OF FROST. THIS MORNING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED QUITE WELL
WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S. LOOKING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH...WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ITS INFLUENCE
TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECASTS AT BOTH SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160823
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        61  38  69  48 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      59  37  66  45 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  60  36  65  45 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   60  35  64  44 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  35  63  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160823
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AIRMASS,
YESTERDAY, IS NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. A ZONAL SPLIT FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEARTLAND WITH EVIDENCE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OVER WY/MT FROM ALBERTA.
THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 08Z, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
KMSL AND KHSV WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AS QUICKLY DUE TO 5-9
MPH WINDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK. AS IT DOES SO, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THEN, A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM`S RAPID EXIT IS THE ONCOMING WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST TODAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING OF THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HEATING (AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE/LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS) TO
QUICKLY MODIFY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THUS, DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE TN VALLEY.

THEN, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECTING 5-10 MPH WINDS TO REMAIN WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THE WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED
FOR ANY POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING THAT COULD RESULT IN FROST FORMING.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER NW AL, AND LOWER 60S OVER NE AL (DUE
TO COLD AIR DAMMING EFFECTS). ALOFT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST AND MERGING WITH A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX (ENVELOPED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET). THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE (SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST) BEGINNING OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LOOK AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND RETAINED SHOWERS, AND HAVE RETAINED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND MOVING SSE ACROSS GA/FL/S AL UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY, BUT HAVE
KEPT LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS THEN CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SCALE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR EDDIES MOVING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUS, THOUGH THE TIMING
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, HAVE LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SCHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A TREND UPWARD IN TEMPS FOR DAY 6/7.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
SHOALS        61  38  69  48 /   0   0   0  20
VINEMONT      59  37  66  45 /   0   0   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  60  36  65  45 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   60  35  64  44 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  35  63  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160501 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE
GRADIENT WINDS AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160501 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE
GRADIENT WINDS AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160216 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160216 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
MS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH HAS PUSHED MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS
FROM BECOMING LIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 SO FAR THIS EVENING. AT 9
PM OBSERVATIONS AT SCOTTSBORO...WINCHESTER...AND THE HUNTSVILLE
AIRPORT ARE STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8 KTS A RESULT.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
PUSH EAST ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS DO SHOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OFF THIS
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO WINDS
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH NE...MODELS INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS
AROUND 3 AM TROUGH DAYBREAK TO AROUND 6KTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER TO MID 40S IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS COULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AND ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT LOWS DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 152306 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 152306 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER WINDS TO AROUND 4 KTS AROUND 15/06Z AS ITS
EASTERN EDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO BOTH TAFS SITES. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        31  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  28  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    27  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA INTO N
CNTRL AL THIS TUE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSING THE REGION IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUD MASS TOWARD
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NWLY INTO THE EVENING HRS. BREEZY NNW WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
IN FROM THE W...AND LIKEWISE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTING
AT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND THE 30F MARK...IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE AL. WITH SFC WINDS
DIMINISHING AND DEW PTS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AREAS OF
FROST LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS WED. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FROM 2
AM THROUGH 8 AM WED.

OVERALL CONDS/TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WED AS THE SFC HIGH
LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...THEREBY ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE REGION. THE FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO TURN
TOWARD A WARMER SWLY REGIME...AS MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS ON FRI...AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE MID PLAINS QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MORE QUIET AND SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN
XPCTED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
RETURN AGAIN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL
RUNS REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    30  63  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        31  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      29  61  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  28  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   28  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    27  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151730 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
THE POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT FELL EARLY THIS MORNING HAD SLEET AND A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL. SOME HIGHER ELEVATED LOCATIONS
REPORTED FLURRIES. THE 7AM REDSTONE ARSENAL SOUNDING SHOWED A SLEET
PROFILE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WAS DRIVEN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP IN
FROM THE NORTH. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TEMP/CLOUD COVER TRENDS. ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL AND NE COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES ONLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS RECEIVED. AFTER THIS PRECIP MOVES OUT...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX UNTIL
TONIGHT SO WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGHOUT TODAY...WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GUSTS /UP TO 25KTS/ WILL CEASE AROUND 00Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT FELL EARLY THIS MORNING HAD SLEET AND A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL. SOME HIGHER ELEVATED LOCATIONS
REPORTED FLURRIES. THE 7AM REDSTONE ARSENAL SOUNDING SHOWED A SLEET
PROFILE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WAS DRIVEN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP IN
FROM THE NORTH. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TEMP/CLOUD COVER TRENDS. ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL AND NE COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES ONLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS RECEIVED. AFTER THIS PRECIP MOVES OUT...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX UNTIL
TONIGHT SO WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGHOUT TODAY...WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 151619 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT FELL EARLY THIS MORNING HAD SLEET AND A
FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL. SOME HIGHER ELEVATED LOCATIONS
REPORTED FLURRIES. THE 7AM REDSTONE ARSENAL SOUNDING SHOWED A SLEET
PROFILE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WAS DRIVEN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE A LOWER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BRINGS LIGHT PRECIP IN
FROM THE NORTH. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TEMP/CLOUD COVER TRENDS. ADDED IN
SPRINKLES TO THE CENTRAL AND NE COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES ONLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
REPORTS RECEIVED. AFTER THIS PRECIP MOVES OUT...SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX UNTIL
TONIGHT SO WIND AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THROUGHOUT TODAY...WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151200 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 151200 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW INSTANCES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIXED IN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD...AS IT TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A CLEARING LINE NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS RISING TO AND ABOVE VFR
IN THE 14-17Z TIMEFRAME...AS IT NEARS. NNW WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 150841
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15/09Z AT KHSV AND 15/08Z AT KMSL
WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
BEFORE 15/0900Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTERWARDS.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

KTW / RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  30  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
SHOALS        52  31  64  41 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      50  29  61  40 /  20   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  29  61  38 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   58  29  61  38 /  30   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    61  28  61  37 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 150841
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
341 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NE AL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXITING SFC ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. TRAILING LOW STRATUS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER MS/AR/W TN. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING
AND THE CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AS A SUBTROPICAL FETCH EXTENDS
FROM THE EXITING EAST COAST TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE LINING UP
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SL.77

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DEEP CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST WEEK OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS REACHING THIS STRENGTH WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL ACTUALLY MEET
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY HERE, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
SINCE WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA. OVERALL, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WINTER
AGAIN.

WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTER MOVES ACROSS TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OVERTAKE MOMENTUM MIXING,
TRANSLATING TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 06-07Z (1AM-2AM CDT) TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z (7AM) TOMORROW MORNING. THUS, WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC FLOW TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DE-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND GOMEX PARALLEL
TO THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO 70 BUT AREAS
OVER NE AL/N GA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER NE AL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE MERGING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO WAVES IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINATE OF THE TWO WAVES AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS S GA/FL. DID REDUCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE CLEARED THE TN VALLEY (AT LEAST ACCORDING THE
ECMWF), BUT HAVE LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY UNTIL ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. KEPT MAINLY SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED
FOR NOW, THOUGH SOME COOLING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IF MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FRONT MOVEMENT PREVAILS IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15/09Z AT KHSV AND 15/08Z AT KMSL
WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
BEFORE 15/0900Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTERWARDS.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

KTW / RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  30  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
SHOALS        52  31  64  41 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      50  29  61  40 /  20   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  29  61  38 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   58  29  61  38 /  30   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    61  28  61  37 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 150532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES FROM NASHVILLE(TN) TO MUSCLE SHOALS(AL) INTO COLUMBUS(MS).
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING NE ALABAMA
AND PUSHING INTO GA. HOWEVER...MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST POP SEEMS
TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN. SO
INTRODUCED A SHARPER GRADIENT IN POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY KEPT 20
POP IN NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEP 60 PERCENT IN NE AL. OTHERWISE
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIKELY WILL
SEE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15/09Z AT KHSV AND 15/08Z AT KMSL
WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
BEFORE 15/0900Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTERWARDS.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

KTW / RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 150532 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 842 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES FROM NASHVILLE(TN) TO MUSCLE SHOALS(AL) INTO COLUMBUS(MS).
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING NE ALABAMA
AND PUSHING INTO GA. HOWEVER...MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST POP SEEMS
TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN. SO
INTRODUCED A SHARPER GRADIENT IN POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY KEPT 20
POP IN NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEP 60 PERCENT IN NE AL. OTHERWISE
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIKELY WILL
SEE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15/09Z AT KHSV AND 15/08Z AT KMSL
WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
BEFORE 15/0900Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTERWARDS.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

KTW / RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 150142 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
842 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...TO LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES FROM NASHVILLE(TN) TO MUSCLE SHOALS(AL) INTO COLUMBUS(MS).
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING NE ALABAMA
AND PUSHING INTO GA. HOWEVER...MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST POP SEEMS
TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN. SO
INTRODUCED A SHARPER GRADIENT IN POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY KEPT 20
POP IN NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEP 60 PERCENT IN NE AL. OTHERWISE
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIKELY WILL
SEE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15/05Z AT KMSL AND 15/07Z
AT KHSV...AS SHOWERS AND -TSRA AFTECT BOTH TERMINALS. EXPECT THE
BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA AT KMSL BETWEEN 15/00Z AND 15/03Z...AND AT KHSV
BETWEEN 15/03Z AND 15/05Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CIG OR
VSBYS...BUT LEAVING OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWER TO END AT BOTH SITES BY 1400Z.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED TO OUR
WEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND OH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MS AND BACK TOWARD LAKE CHARLES LA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ENE.

BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE TN VALLEY CAN
EXPECT TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHCS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS THAT REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION. THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BRING PRECIP TO AN END. THE 925MB
THERMAL TROF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS FOLKS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO VIEW THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...UNLESS THEY
WANT TO DRIVE WEST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO A
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE QUICKLY
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK
TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK ONCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT
LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE
LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS QUITE DRY. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID OR LOWER 20S...FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH A
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE NOT ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
ATTM...AND SINCE OUR POLICY IS NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES...WILL OPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NE OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A W/E GRADIENT IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A WEDGE FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPACTS THE NE CWA. A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL TRY TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CAUSE THAT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE SPEED OF MID LVL FORCING FOR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP...BUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLN.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...AS MY LAST SHIFT AT WFO HUN I WOULD LIKE TO
THANK THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL OUR OTHER PARTNERS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. OUR WORK TOGETHER TO PREPARE THE PEOPLE OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FULFILLING. FROM THE SNOW STORMS AND OUTBREAKS OF 2011
THROUGH THIS YEAR...IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR SERVING YOU.

CCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 150142 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
842 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...TO LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES FROM NASHVILLE(TN) TO MUSCLE SHOALS(AL) INTO COLUMBUS(MS).
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING NE ALABAMA
AND PUSHING INTO GA. HOWEVER...MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST POP SEEMS
TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN. SO
INTRODUCED A SHARPER GRADIENT IN POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY KEPT 20
POP IN NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEP 60 PERCENT IN NE AL. OTHERWISE
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIKELY WILL
SEE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15/05Z AT KMSL AND 15/07Z
AT KHSV...AS SHOWERS AND -TSRA AFTECT BOTH TERMINALS. EXPECT THE
BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA AT KMSL BETWEEN 15/00Z AND 15/03Z...AND AT KHSV
BETWEEN 15/03Z AND 15/05Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CIG OR
VSBYS...BUT LEAVING OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWER TO END AT BOTH SITES BY 1400Z.

KTW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED TO OUR
WEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND OH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MS AND BACK TOWARD LAKE CHARLES LA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ENE.

BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE TN VALLEY CAN
EXPECT TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHCS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS THAT REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION. THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BRING PRECIP TO AN END. THE 925MB
THERMAL TROF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS FOLKS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO VIEW THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...UNLESS THEY
WANT TO DRIVE WEST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO A
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE QUICKLY
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK
TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK ONCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT
LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE
LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS QUITE DRY. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID OR LOWER 20S...FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH A
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE NOT ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
ATTM...AND SINCE OUR POLICY IS NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES...WILL OPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NE OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A W/E GRADIENT IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A WEDGE FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPACTS THE NE CWA. A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL TRY TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CAUSE THAT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE SPEED OF MID LVL FORCING FOR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP...BUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLN.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...AS MY LAST SHIFT AT WFO HUN I WOULD LIKE TO
THANK THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL OUR OTHER PARTNERS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. OUR WORK TOGETHER TO PREPARE THE PEOPLE OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FULFILLING. FROM THE SNOW STORMS AND OUTBREAKS OF 2011
THROUGH THIS YEAR...IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR SERVING YOU.

CCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 142337 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED TO OUR
WEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND OH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MS AND BACK TOWARD LAKE CHARLES LA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ENE.

BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE TN VALLEY CAN
EXPECT TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHCS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS THAT REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION. THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BRING PRECIP TO AN END. THE 925MB
THERMAL TROF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS FOLKS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO VIEW THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...UNLESS THEY
WANT TO DRIVE WEST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO A
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE QUICKLY
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK
TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK ONCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT
LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE
LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS QUITE DRY. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID OR LOWER 20S...FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH A
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE NOT ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
ATTM...AND SINCE OUR POLICY IS NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES...WILL OPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NE OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A W/E GRADIENT IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A WEDGE FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPACTS THE NE CWA. A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL TRY TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CAUSE THAT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE SPEED OF MID LVL FORCING FOR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP...BUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLN.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...AS MY LAST SHIFT AT WFO HUN I WOULD LIKE TO
THANK THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL OUR OTHER PARTNERS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. OUR WORK TOGETHER TO PREPARE THE PEOPLE OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FULFILLING. FROM THE SNOW STORMS AND OUTBREAKS OF 2011
THROUGH THIS YEAR...IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR SERVING YOU.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15/05Z AT KMSL AND 15/07Z
AT KHSV...AS SHOWERS AND -TSRA AFTECT BOTH TERMINALS. EXPECT THE
BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA AT KMSL BETWEEN 15/00Z AND 15/03Z...AND AT KHSV
BETWEEN 15/03Z AND 15/05Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CIG OR
VSBYS...BUT LEAVING OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWER TO END AT BOTH SITES BY 1400Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 142337 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED TO OUR
WEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND OH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MS AND BACK TOWARD LAKE CHARLES LA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ENE.

BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE TN VALLEY CAN
EXPECT TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHCS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS THAT REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION. THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BRING PRECIP TO AN END. THE 925MB
THERMAL TROF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS FOLKS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO VIEW THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...UNLESS THEY
WANT TO DRIVE WEST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO A
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE QUICKLY
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK
TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK ONCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT
LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE
LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS QUITE DRY. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID OR LOWER 20S...FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH A
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE NOT ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
ATTM...AND SINCE OUR POLICY IS NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES...WILL OPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NE OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A W/E GRADIENT IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A WEDGE FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPACTS THE NE CWA. A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL TRY TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CAUSE THAT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE SPEED OF MID LVL FORCING FOR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP...BUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLN.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...AS MY LAST SHIFT AT WFO HUN I WOULD LIKE TO
THANK THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL OUR OTHER PARTNERS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. OUR WORK TOGETHER TO PREPARE THE PEOPLE OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FULFILLING. FROM THE SNOW STORMS AND OUTBREAKS OF 2011
THROUGH THIS YEAR...IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR SERVING YOU.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15/05Z AT KMSL AND 15/07Z
AT KHSV...AS SHOWERS AND -TSRA AFTECT BOTH TERMINALS. EXPECT THE
BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA AT KMSL BETWEEN 15/00Z AND 15/03Z...AND AT KHSV
BETWEEN 15/03Z AND 15/05Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CIG OR
VSBYS...BUT LEAVING OUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWER TO END AT BOTH SITES BY 1400Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 142039
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
339 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED TO OUR
WEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND OH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MS AND BACK TOWARD LAKE CHARLES LA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ENE.

BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE TN VALLEY CAN
EXPECT TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHCS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS THAT REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION. THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BRING PRECIP TO AN END. THE 925MB
THERMAL TROF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS FOLKS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO VIEW THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...UNLESS THEY
WANT TO DRIVE WEST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO A
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE QUICKLY
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK
TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK ONCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT
LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE
LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS QUITE DRY. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID OR LOWER 20S...FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH A
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE NOT ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
ATTM...AND SINCE OUR POLICY IS NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES...WILL OPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NE OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A W/E GRADIENT IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A WEDGE FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPACTS THE NE CWA. A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL TRY TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CAUSE THAT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE SPEED OF MID LVL FORCING FOR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP...BUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLN.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...AS MY LAST SHIFT AT WFO HUN I WOULD LIKE TO
THANK THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL OUR OTHER PARTNERS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. OUR WORK TOGETHER TO PREPARE THE PEOPLE OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FULFILLING. FROM THE SNOW STORMS AND OUTBREAKS OF 2011
THROUGH THIS YEAR...IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR SERVING YOU.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
SUNSET DUE TO LOW CIGS. WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AROUND SUNSET...CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND THE TAF SITES AS WELL. AROUND
SUNRISE CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TOWARDS MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL DURING AND AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  53  30  61 / 100  20   0   0
SHOALS        40  52  30  63 / 100  10   0   0
VINEMONT      39  50  29  60 / 100  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  40  48  28  59 / 100  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   44  51  28  61 / 100  30   0   0
FORT PAYNE    45  51  26  61 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 142039
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
339 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS POISED TO OUR
WEST...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND OH TO NORTH
CENTRAL MS AND BACK TOWARD LAKE CHARLES LA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE ENE.

BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE TN VALLEY CAN
EXPECT TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHCS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS THAT REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION. THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BRING PRECIP TO AN END. THE 925MB
THERMAL TROF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHEN SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS FOLKS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO VIEW THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...UNLESS THEY
WANT TO DRIVE WEST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO A
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE QUICKLY
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK
TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK ONCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT
LOWS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE
LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS ALSO LOOKS QUITE DRY. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MID OR LOWER 20S...FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH A
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE NOT ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
ATTM...AND SINCE OUR POLICY IS NOT TO ISSUE FREEZE WATCHES...WILL OPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT NE OF THE TN VALLEY FOR THE LATE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A W/E GRADIENT IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A WEDGE FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IMPACTS THE NE CWA. A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL TRY TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CAUSE THAT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE SPEED OF MID LVL FORCING FOR THAT
NEXT SYSTEM LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING OF OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP...BUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. AFTER THAT...THE GFS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECWMF SOLN.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...AS MY LAST SHIFT AT WFO HUN I WOULD LIKE TO
THANK THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA...AND ALL OUR OTHER PARTNERS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. OUR WORK TOGETHER TO PREPARE THE PEOPLE OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY FULFILLING. FROM THE SNOW STORMS AND OUTBREAKS OF 2011
THROUGH THIS YEAR...IT HAS BEEN AN HONOR SERVING YOU.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
SUNSET DUE TO LOW CIGS. WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AROUND SUNSET...CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND THE TAF SITES AS WELL. AROUND
SUNRISE CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TOWARDS MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL DURING AND AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  53  30  61 / 100  20   0   0
SHOALS        40  52  30  63 / 100  10   0   0
VINEMONT      39  50  29  60 / 100  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  40  48  28  59 / 100  20   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   44  51  28  61 / 100  30   0   0
FORT PAYNE    45  51  26  61 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 141747 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL CURRENTLY LINGERING IN NE AL AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR HAS
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS AND LOWERED THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
SUNSET DUE TO LOW CIGS. WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AROUND SUNSET...CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND THE TAF SITES AS WELL. AROUND
SUNRISE CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TOWARDS MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL DURING AND AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JMS

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 141747 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL CURRENTLY LINGERING IN NE AL AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR HAS
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS AND LOWERED THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
SUNSET DUE TO LOW CIGS. WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AROUND SUNSET...CIGS WILL DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND THE TAF SITES AS WELL. AROUND
SUNRISE CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TOWARDS MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL DURING AND AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JMS

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 141616 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL CURRENTLY LINGERING IN NE AL AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR HAS
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS AND LOWERED THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
GENERALLY INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE NOON. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECEDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST IN
THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
FROM THE S-SW OF 15-25KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE LATE EVENING
COINCIDING WITH THE FRONT`S PASSAGE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIG/VIS VALUES SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.CLIMATE...
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

GIVEN THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BELOW IS A LOOK BACK AT
THE LAST TIME SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

MARCH 26TH...
MUSCLE SHOALS...26 DEGREES.
DECATUR...23 DEGREES.
HUNTSVILLE...27 DEGREES.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...APRIL 15TH AND 16TH...ABOUT 20 DAYS SINCE MARCH 26TH. THOSE
WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO MINIMIZE DAMAGE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN PRODUCE.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
PARENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH ARE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. HEARTLAND. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CORN BELT AND OZARKS REGIONS. IT
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN AR TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION, IT IS PUSHING
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NORTHWARD OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 141616 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL CURRENTLY LINGERING IN NE AL AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS WELL. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR HAS
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HAVE
DECREASED POPS AND LOWERED THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
GENERALLY INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE NOON. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECEDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST IN
THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
FROM THE S-SW OF 15-25KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE LATE EVENING
COINCIDING WITH THE FRONT`S PASSAGE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIG/VIS VALUES SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.CLIMATE...
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

GIVEN THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BELOW IS A LOOK BACK AT
THE LAST TIME SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

MARCH 26TH...
MUSCLE SHOALS...26 DEGREES.
DECATUR...23 DEGREES.
HUNTSVILLE...27 DEGREES.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...APRIL 15TH AND 16TH...ABOUT 20 DAYS SINCE MARCH 26TH. THOSE
WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO MINIMIZE DAMAGE THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN PRODUCE.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
PARENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH ARE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. HEARTLAND. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CORN BELT AND OZARKS REGIONS. IT
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN AR TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION, IT IS PUSHING
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NORTHWARD OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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