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000
FXUS64 KHUN 050227
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CDFNT NOW MOVING INTO NE AL AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY. THUS WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO MOSTLY CLR ACROSS
THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS.
TEMPS LOOK OK ATTM. WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG FOR NOW DUE TO VERY
LIMITED RAINFALL TODAY AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...CDFNT NOW APPROACHING NW AL AND SHRA/TSRA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT ARE QUICKLY MOVING SE OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MID TN THAT IS HEADING
TOWARDS NRN AL. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS PCPN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP SHRA AT THE KHSV
TAF SITE ONLY FROM 01Z TO 04Z. MAY NEED TO AMEND TO ADD THUNDER BUT
WITH LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA FOR NOW. AFTER
04Z SKIES SHOULD BE CLR AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW...NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS MAY BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NE
AL...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALSO INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDING, WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
00Z...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL END PRECIPITATION BY AFTER
01Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS TRENDING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
AND WILL EVEN GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IS
PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS ALSO INDICATED TO
ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POP FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. IT WILL
BE WINDY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65, NOT INCLUDING CULLMAN COUNTY, ALABAMA. DECENT COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
DECENT WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BOTH DAYS TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED, WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ006-008>010.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 042319 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALSO INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDING, WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
00Z...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL END PRECIPITATION BY AFTER
01Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS TRENDING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
AND WILL EVEN GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IS
PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS ALSO INDICATED TO
ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POP FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. IT WILL
BE WINDY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65, NOT INCLUDING CULLMAN COUNTY, ALABAMA. DECENT COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
DECENT WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BOTH DAYS TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED, WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...CDFNT NOW APPROACHING NW AL AND SHRA/TSRA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT ARE QUICKLY MOVING SE OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MID TN THAT IS HEADING
TOWARDS NRN AL. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS PCPN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP SHRA AT THE KHSV
TAF SITE ONLY FROM 01Z TO 04Z. MAY NEED TO AMEND TO ADD THUNDER BUT
WITH LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA FOR NOW. AFTER
04Z SKIES SHOULD BE CLR AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW...NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS MAY BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NE
AL...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ006-008>010.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 042319 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALSO INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDING, WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
00Z...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL END PRECIPITATION BY AFTER
01Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS TRENDING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
AND WILL EVEN GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS IS
PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS ALSO INDICATED TO
ROTATE SOUTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POP FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. IT WILL
BE WINDY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65, NOT INCLUDING CULLMAN COUNTY, ALABAMA. DECENT COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
DECENT WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BOTH DAYS TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED, WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...CDFNT NOW APPROACHING NW AL AND SHRA/TSRA THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT ARE QUICKLY MOVING SE OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MID TN THAT IS HEADING
TOWARDS NRN AL. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS PCPN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP SHRA AT THE KHSV
TAF SITE ONLY FROM 01Z TO 04Z. MAY NEED TO AMEND TO ADD THUNDER BUT
WITH LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP PCPN AS SHRA FOR NOW. AFTER
04Z SKIES SHOULD BE CLR AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW...NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS MAY BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO NE
AL...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ006-008>010.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041743 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1052 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
THIS MORNING STARTED OFF A BIT COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER HOWEVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND AN COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TODAYS HIGH TEMPS WILL STRIVE TO
REACH BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX TREND HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND HIRES MODEL DATA TRENDS. WESTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
PROVIDED THE LAPSE RATES FROM SFC-850MB...CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER
WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHRA ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED
-TSRA BTWN 04/21Z-05/02Z. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS
(10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS) AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE
SFC WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 05/07Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BTWN
04/20Z-04/23Z. LLWS IS THEN LIKELY BTWN 05/07Z-05/14Z AND HAVE ADDED
WS020/35035KT INTO BOTH TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THEN AFTER
05/14Z ANTICIPATING NW WINDS OF 15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041552 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ADJUSTED POP/WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING STARTED OFF A BIT COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER HOWEVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND AN COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TODAYS HIGH TEMPS WILL STRIVE TO
REACH BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
ADJUSTED THE POP/WX TREND HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND HIRES MODEL DATA TRENDS. WESTERLY SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
PROVIDED THE LAPSE RATES FROM SFC-850MB...CANNOT RULE OUT STRONGER
WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
AND ENTER THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 18-21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BUT DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS
AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25KTS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS DROP BELOW 10KTS
BUT SPEEDS AROUND 2000FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 30KTS AND LLWS
MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER ISSUANCE`S. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PACKAGE BUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041123
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR EARLY MAY CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...DRIVEN BY A MID TO
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS...PUSHING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A STRONGER UPPER LOW --
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION -- IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD CLEAR MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA -- WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS -- BY 05/00Z. PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE WEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE L/M 70S. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND FAVORABLY COINCIDE WITH FROPA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS -- MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS...VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SFC-800 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. BASED ON EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AT 00Z...A CHANCE POP WAS WARRANTED FOR
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION LINGERING BEYOND SUNSET SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SE KY/SW VA/NE TN BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL ROTATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION
ON THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER EPISODE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS FOR SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...A
SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCU DECK WILL IMPACT MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND
WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN FACT, RIDGETOPS AND PORTIONS
OF THE PLATEAU IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY NOT EVEN REACH 60 TOMORROW.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE...AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE NEEDED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT
WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PREVENTING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A REGIME FEATURING STRONGER MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE L/M 70S FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...AN
INTENSE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...
WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS AS
IF EITHER THE WEAKENING FRONT OR CONVECTIVE OUTLFOW MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN TN ON SUNDAY...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT NOTED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST -- A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN OUR TN COUNTIES. A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED BY MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
AND ENTER THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 18-21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BUT DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS
AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25KTS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS DROP BELOW 10KTS
BUT SPEEDS AROUND 2000FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 30KTS AND LLWS
MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER ISSUANCE`S. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PACKAGE BUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041123
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR EARLY MAY CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...DRIVEN BY A MID TO
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS...PUSHING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A STRONGER UPPER LOW --
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION -- IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD CLEAR MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA -- WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS -- BY 05/00Z. PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE WEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE L/M 70S. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND FAVORABLY COINCIDE WITH FROPA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS -- MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS...VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SFC-800 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. BASED ON EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AT 00Z...A CHANCE POP WAS WARRANTED FOR
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION LINGERING BEYOND SUNSET SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SE KY/SW VA/NE TN BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL ROTATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION
ON THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER EPISODE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS FOR SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...A
SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCU DECK WILL IMPACT MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND
WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN FACT, RIDGETOPS AND PORTIONS
OF THE PLATEAU IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY NOT EVEN REACH 60 TOMORROW.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE...AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE NEEDED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT
WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PREVENTING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A REGIME FEATURING STRONGER MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE L/M 70S FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...AN
INTENSE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...
WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS AS
IF EITHER THE WEAKENING FRONT OR CONVECTIVE OUTLFOW MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN TN ON SUNDAY...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT NOTED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST -- A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN OUR TN COUNTIES. A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED BY MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
AND ENTER THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 18-21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BUT DUE TO THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS
AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25KTS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS DROP BELOW 10KTS
BUT SPEEDS AROUND 2000FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 30KTS AND LLWS
MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER ISSUANCE`S. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PACKAGE BUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041048
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
548 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR EARLY MAY CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING...DRIVEN BY A MID TO
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS...PUSHING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A STRONGER UPPER LOW --
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION -- IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD CLEAR MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA -- WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS -- BY 05/00Z. PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE WEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE L/M 70S. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND FAVORABLY COINCIDE WITH FROPA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS -- MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS...VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SFC-800 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. BASED ON EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AT 00Z...A CHANCE POP WAS WARRANTED FOR
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION LINGERING BEYOND SUNSET SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SE KY/SW VA/NE TN BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL ROTATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION
ON THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER EPISODE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS FOR SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...A
SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCU DECK WILL IMPACT MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND
WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN FACT, RIDGETOPS AND PORTIONS
OF THE PLATEAU IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY NOT EVEN REACH 60 TOMORROW.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE...AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE NEEDED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT
WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND PREVENTING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A REGIME FEATURING STRONGER MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE L/M 70S FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...AN
INTENSE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...
WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS AS
IF EITHER THE WEAKENING FRONT OR CONVECTIVE OUTLFOW MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN TN ON SUNDAY...AND -- ALTHOUGH NOT NOTED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST -- A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN OUR TN COUNTIES. A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED BY MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1107 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS THAT ARE ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A CDFNT
THAT IS NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/5H TEMPS ARND -20C AND FORCING
FROM THE CDFNT...WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z TO
02Z SINCE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECT WITH THIS CDFNT. OTHERWISE
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74  47  67  47 /  60  20  10  10
SHOALS        74  49  69  48 /  60  10  10  10
VINEMONT      72  48  66  48 /  50  30  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  71  46  63  46 /  60  20  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   71  47  63  49 /  40  50  20  10
FORT PAYNE    70  46  62  45 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 040407
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 923 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
WITH FAIRLY GOOD CAA TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DECREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO ARND 50 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF COLD SPOT WITH MRNG LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
BASED ON STLT TRENDS WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS BY
MRNG.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLOUDS THAT ARE ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A CDFNT
THAT IS NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/5H TEMPS ARND -20C AND FORCING
FROM THE CDFNT...WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z TO
02Z SINCE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECT WITH THIS CDFNT. OTHERWISE
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 040223
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWERED WINDS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH FAIRLY GOOD CAA TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DECREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO ARND 50 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF COLD SPOT WITH MRNG LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
BASED ON STLT TRENDS WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS BY
MRNG.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KHSV AND BROKEN AT KMSL WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THE MAIN INITIAL
FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INVOLVING CLEARING OUT THE FORECAST AREA BY
BETWEEN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME. GENERALLY ACCEPT THIS SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN A LIGHTER LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, EXPECT THAT
TEMPS SHOULD FALL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE GONE TWO TO
THREE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING AN
UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION BY BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO WILL BRING IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE GOING FORECAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING DROPPING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE CLEARING OCCURRING ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND OCCURRING. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA.

BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH DRY WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INVOLVING
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT COULD
STILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS TO END OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.


TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 032325
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THE MAIN INITIAL
FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INVOLVING CLEARING OUT THE FORECAST AREA BY
BETWEEN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME. GENERALLY ACCEPT THIS SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN A LIGHTER LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, EXPECT THAT
TEMPS SHOULD FALL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE GONE TWO TO
THREE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING AN
UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION BY BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO WILL BRING IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE GOING FORECAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING DROPPING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE CLEARING OCCURRING ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND OCCURRING. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA.

BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH DRY WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INVOLVING
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT COULD
STILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS TO END OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.


TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KHSV AND BROKEN AT KMSL WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 032000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THE MAIN INITIAL
FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INVOLVING CLEARING OUT THE FORECAST AREA BY
BETWEEN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME. GENERALLY ACCEPT THIS SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN A LIGHTER LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, EXPECT THAT
TEMPS SHOULD FALL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE GONE TWO TO
THREE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING AN
UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION BY BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO WILL BRING IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE GOING FORECAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING DROPPING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE CLEARING OCCURRING ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND OCCURRING. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA.

BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH DRY WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INVOLVING
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT COULD
STILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS TO END OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.


TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS FINALLY REACHING ABOVE
3KFT AGL AND INTO VFR RANGE. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED A NARROW TEMPO RANGE
OF MVFR CIGS FOR THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP AND
GUST AT TIMES FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  72  47  67 /  10  40  30  10
SHOALS        50  73  48  69 /  10  50  20  10
VINEMONT      49  71  47  65 /  10  30  40  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  69  45  63 /  10  50  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   51  71  47  64 /  10  20  40  10
FORT PAYNE    46  70  45  63 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031653 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS YESTERDAY CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR WINCHESTER (TN) SOUTHWEST THROUGH MARION COUNTY
(AL) THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
SEEN EAST OF I-65 IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. ADJUSTED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.
EXPECT MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND
NOON AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE MET AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE REMOVED
POP AFTER 11 AM...SINCE FORCING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CULLMAN COUNTY BY
THEN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DRIER IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
PREVALENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS...BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 71 TO 76 DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. ELSEWHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
LOOK LIKELY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS FINALLY REACHING ABOVE
3KFT AGL AND INTO VFR RANGE. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED A NARROW TEMPO RANGE
OF MVFR CIGS FOR THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINSHING OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP AND
GUST AT TIMES FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031653 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS YESTERDAY CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR WINCHESTER (TN) SOUTHWEST THROUGH MARION COUNTY
(AL) THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
SEEN EAST OF I-65 IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. ADJUSTED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.
EXPECT MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND
NOON AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE MET AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE REMOVED
POP AFTER 11 AM...SINCE FORCING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CULLMAN COUNTY BY
THEN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DRIER IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
PREVALENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS...BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 71 TO 76 DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. ELSEWHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
LOOK LIKELY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS FINALLY REACHING ABOVE
3KFT AGL AND INTO VFR RANGE. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED A NARROW TEMPO RANGE
OF MVFR CIGS FOR THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINSHING OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP AND
GUST AT TIMES FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031447 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
947 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES AND REMOVE AFTERNOON POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS YESTERDAY CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR WINCHESTER (TN) SOUTHWEST THROUGH MARION COUNTY
(AL) THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
SEEN EAST OF I-65 IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. ADJUSTED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.
EXPECT MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND
NOON AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE MET AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE REMOVED
POP AFTER 11 AM...SINCE FORCING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CULLMAN COUNTY BY
THEN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DRIER IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
PREVALENT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGHS...BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 71 TO 76 DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. ELSEWHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
LOOK LIKELY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 4000FT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW
TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A POSITIVELY SHEARED MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING -- EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS NOTED -- EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD END BEFORE 12Z...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN FORECASTING A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL VORTICES -- CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE/KS -- TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THEY CONGEAL INTO A SINGLE WAVE AND
TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
REGENERATION OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
WARMING CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.75
INCH RANGE AND LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM WE WILL KEEP
POPS AROUND 20%. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES
AND AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY TOMORROW...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A MORE
INTENSE VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A STRONG REINFORCING
COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWFA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PRIOR TO FROPA ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED... STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT. POPS HAVE BEEN TAILORED TO REFLECT EXPECTED POSITION
OF FRONT AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL PEAK IN THE 250-500 J/KG
RANGE... DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT WITH WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY...AS LINGERING MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY INTERACT WITH ENHANCED ORAGRAPHIC LIFT
GENERATED BY 10-15 KNOT NNW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD IN ELEVATED TERRAIN ABOVE
1000 FT... BUT FORECAST GRIDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS POINT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND 500-MB
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM
REACHING 70 ON THURSDAY...BUT A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING THE U70S/L80S BY SATURDAY. ELEVATED
NNW WINDS MAY PREVENT THE FULL IMPACT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
BEING REALIZED THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE
L/M 40S. DURING THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE --
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
CLOSELY FOR INCLUSION OF POPS IN FUTURE FORECASTS...AS REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A LARGE MCS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY UNFOLD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 4000FT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW
TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031126
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A POSITIVELY SHEARED MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING -- EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS NOTED -- EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD END BEFORE 12Z...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN FORECASTING A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL VORTICES -- CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE/KS -- TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THEY CONGEAL INTO A SINGLE WAVE AND
TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
REGENERATION OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
WARMING CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.75
INCH RANGE AND LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM WE WILL KEEP
POPS AROUND 20%. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES
AND AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY TOMORROW...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A MORE
INTENSE VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A STRONG REINFORCING
COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWFA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PRIOR TO FROPA ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED... STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT. POPS HAVE BEEN TAILORED TO REFLECT EXPECTED POSITION
OF FRONT AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL PEAK IN THE 250-500 J/KG
RANGE... DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT WITH WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY...AS LINGERING MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY INTERACT WITH ENHANCED ORAGRAPHIC LIFT
GENERATED BY 10-15 KNOT NNW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD IN ELEVATED TERRAIN ABOVE
1000 FT... BUT FORECAST GRIDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS POINT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND 500-MB
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM
REACHING 70 ON THURSDAY...BUT A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING THE U70S/L80S BY SATURDAY. ELEVATED
NNW WINDS MAY PREVENT THE FULL IMPACT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
BEING REALIZED THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE
L/M 40S. DURING THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE --
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
CLOSELY FOR INCLUSION OF POPS IN FUTURE FORECASTS...AS REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A LARGE MCS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY UNFOLD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 1000-2500FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO AROUND 4000FT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NW
TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 031033
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A POSITIVELY SHEARED MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS MORNING -- EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS NOTED -- EVEN IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD END BEFORE 12Z...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN FORECASTING A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL VORTICES -- CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE/KS -- TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THEY CONGEAL INTO A SINGLE WAVE AND
TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
REGENERATION OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
WARMING CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.75
INCH RANGE AND LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM WE WILL KEEP
POPS AROUND 20%. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES
AND AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY TOMORROW...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A MORE
INTENSE VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A STRONG REINFORCING
COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWFA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PRIOR TO FROPA ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED... STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT. POPS HAVE BEEN TAILORED TO REFLECT EXPECTED POSITION
OF FRONT AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS
CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL PEAK IN THE 250-500 J/KG
RANGE... DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT WITH WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY...AS LINGERING MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY INTERACT WITH ENHANCED ORAGRAPHIC LIFT
GENERATED BY 10-15 KNOT NNW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD IN ELEVATED TERRAIN ABOVE
1000 FT... BUT FORECAST GRIDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS POINT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND 500-MB
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM
REACHING 70 ON THURSDAY...BUT A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING THE U70S/L80S BY SATURDAY. ELEVATED
NNW WINDS MAY PREVENT THE FULL IMPACT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
BEING REALIZED THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE
L/M 40S. DURING THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE --
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
CLOSELY FOR INCLUSION OF POPS IN FUTURE FORECASTS...AS REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A LARGE MCS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY UNFOLD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS...BOTH HSV AND MSL WILL CONTINUE WITH BORDERLINE IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL BETWEEN THE 11Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL THE 15Z-16Z
TIME PERIOD...WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  50  72  47 /  20  20  40  30
SHOALS        71  50  73  48 /  20  20  50  20
VINEMONT      70  49  71  47 /  20  20  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  68  47  69  45 /  20  20  50  20
ALBERTVILLE   70  51  71  47 /  20  20  20  40
FORT PAYNE    71  46  70  45 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030455 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1155 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
AS OF 0230Z...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY DRAPED SW TO NE FROM
NEAR BIRMINGHAM UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA CORNER. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ALONG IT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
COOLER NW FLOW IS RETURNING BEHIND IT WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A MINIMUM
TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP. THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN 15% SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LINGERING MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEARING COULD SEE
SOME POCKETS OF FOG BUT CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...BOTH HSV AND MSL WILL CONTINUE WITH BORDERLINE IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL BETWEEN THE 11Z-12Z TIME FRAME. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL THE 15Z-16Z TIME
PERIOD...WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030233
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0230Z...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY DRAPED SW TO NE FROM
NEAR BIRMINGHAM UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA CORNER. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ALONG IT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
COOLER NW FLOW IS RETURNING BEHIND IT WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A MINIMUM
TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP. THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN 15% SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LINGERING MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEARING COULD SEE
SOME POCKETS OF FOG BUT CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT THAT BORDERLINE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT MSL AFTER 02Z AND AT HSV AFTER 08Z TONIGHT
AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
FINALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT MSL AND HSV.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING
SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY ALIGNED
ROUGHLY FROM WINCHESTER, TO HUNTSVILLE TO SMITH LAKE BASED LARGELY ON
WIND SFC OBS. LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS ARE LINGERING A BIT BEHIND THE
SFC FRONT SHIFT AS STRONGEST DP GRADIENTS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN NE
MISS AND SOUTHERN TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
RELATIVELY THETA-E RICH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES PER SPC ANALYSIS HAVE CLIMBED TO
ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
HAS AIDED IN TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, BROAD SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL LIMITED AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AND LARGELY LINEAR. SO, TSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAK/MDT
IN INTENSITY. FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...BETTER SHEAR HAS ENABLED SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...AS PEAK HEATING
IS REALIZED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FROM CULLMAN TO GUNTERSVILLE AND
SCOTTSBORO...AND POINTS EAST. BASED ON FCST/ANALYSIS SOUNDING
INFORMATION AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS...THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACT FROM STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE FRONTAL SURFACE UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850-900 MB SLIPS THROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
ESSENTIALLY CEASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE REMOVED FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
EVENING...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION WAS RETAINED FOR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BROAD/WEAKER FORCING WILL STILL RESULT IN LGT/MDT
SHRA ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY IS TO
OUR WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S TONIGHT...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE.

THE BROAD UPR TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME SHEARED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG EARLY
MAY INSOLATION HEATS UP THE BOUNDARY LYR OF THE ADVECTING COOLER
AIRMASS. PARCELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO
PRODUCE WELL-DEVELOPED CU AND PERHAPS ISOLD LGT SHRA IN EASTERN
AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPR TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THUS...WILL
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW. SB/ML
CAPE MAY REACH THE -10C LEVEL TOMORROW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN -TSRA
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY THIN FORECAST CAPE AT THESE
LEVELS...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES
APPEAR VERY SMALL.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER UPR COLD CORE LOW
MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE TUES INTO WED. BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WED...BUT SHOWERS AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DEEP NW FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MORNING LOWS ON THURS/FRI MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID/UPR
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
30S...SO MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORDS BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 030233
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0230Z...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY DRAPED SW TO NE FROM
NEAR BIRMINGHAM UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ALABAMA CORNER. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ALONG IT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
COOLER NW FLOW IS RETURNING BEHIND IT WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A MINIMUM
TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP. THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN 15% SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LINGERING MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEARING COULD SEE
SOME POCKETS OF FOG BUT CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT THAT BORDERLINE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT MSL AFTER 02Z AND AT HSV AFTER 08Z TONIGHT
AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
FINALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT MSL AND HSV.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING
SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY ALIGNED
ROUGHLY FROM WINCHESTER, TO HUNTSVILLE TO SMITH LAKE BASED LARGELY ON
WIND SFC OBS. LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS ARE LINGERING A BIT BEHIND THE
SFC FRONT SHIFT AS STRONGEST DP GRADIENTS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN NE
MISS AND SOUTHERN TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
RELATIVELY THETA-E RICH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES PER SPC ANALYSIS HAVE CLIMBED TO
ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
HAS AIDED IN TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, BROAD SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL LIMITED AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AND LARGELY LINEAR. SO, TSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAK/MDT
IN INTENSITY. FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...BETTER SHEAR HAS ENABLED SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...AS PEAK HEATING
IS REALIZED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FROM CULLMAN TO GUNTERSVILLE AND
SCOTTSBORO...AND POINTS EAST. BASED ON FCST/ANALYSIS SOUNDING
INFORMATION AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS...THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACT FROM STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE FRONTAL SURFACE UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850-900 MB SLIPS THROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
ESSENTIALLY CEASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE REMOVED FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
EVENING...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION WAS RETAINED FOR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BROAD/WEAKER FORCING WILL STILL RESULT IN LGT/MDT
SHRA ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY IS TO
OUR WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S TONIGHT...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE.

THE BROAD UPR TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME SHEARED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG EARLY
MAY INSOLATION HEATS UP THE BOUNDARY LYR OF THE ADVECTING COOLER
AIRMASS. PARCELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO
PRODUCE WELL-DEVELOPED CU AND PERHAPS ISOLD LGT SHRA IN EASTERN
AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPR TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THUS...WILL
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW. SB/ML
CAPE MAY REACH THE -10C LEVEL TOMORROW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN -TSRA
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY THIN FORECAST CAPE AT THESE
LEVELS...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES
APPEAR VERY SMALL.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER UPR COLD CORE LOW
MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE TUES INTO WED. BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WED...BUT SHOWERS AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DEEP NW FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MORNING LOWS ON THURS/FRI MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID/UPR
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
30S...SO MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORDS BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 022345 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING
SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY ALIGNED
ROUGHLY FROM WINCHESTER, TO HUNTSVILLE TO SMITH LAKE BASED LARGELY ON
WIND SFC OBS. LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS ARE LINGERING A BIT BEHIND THE
SFC FRONT SHIFT AS STRONGEST DP GRADIENTS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN NE
MISS AND SOUTHERN TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
RELATIVELY THETA-E RICH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES PER SPC ANALYSIS HAVE CLIMBED TO
ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
HAS AIDED IN TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, BROAD SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL LIMITED AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AND LARGELY LINEAR. SO, TSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAK/MDT
IN INTENSITY. FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...BETTER SHEAR HAS ENABLED SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...AS PEAK HEATING
IS REALIZED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FROM CULLMAN TO GUNTERSVILLE AND
SCOTTSBORO...AND POINTS EAST. BASED ON FCST/ANALYSIS SOUNDING
INFORMATION AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS...THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACT FROM STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE FRONTAL SURFACE UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850-900 MB SLIPS THROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
ESSENTIALLY CEASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE REMOVED FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
EVENING...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION WAS RETAINED FOR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BROAD/WEAKER FORCING WILL STILL RESULT IN LGT/MDT
SHRA ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY IS TO
OUR WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S TONIGHT...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE.

THE BROAD UPR TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME SHEARED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG EARLY
MAY INSOLATION HEATS UP THE BOUNDARY LYR OF THE ADVECTING COOLER
AIRMASS. PARCELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO
PRODUCE WELL-DEVELOPED CU AND PERHAPS ISOLD LGT SHRA IN EASTERN
AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPR TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THUS...WILL
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW. SB/ML
CAPE MAY REACH THE -10C LEVEL TOMORROW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN -TSRA
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY THIN FORECAST CAPE AT THESE
LEVELS...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES
APPEAR VERY SMALL.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER UPR COLD CORE LOW
MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE TUES INTO WED. BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WED...BUT SHOWERS AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DEEP NW FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MORNING LOWS ON THURS/FRI MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID/UPR
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
30S...SO MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORDS BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT THAT BORDERLINE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT MSL AFTER 02Z AND AT HSV AFTER 08Z TONIGHT
AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
FINALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT MSL AND HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 022345 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING
SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY ALIGNED
ROUGHLY FROM WINCHESTER, TO HUNTSVILLE TO SMITH LAKE BASED LARGELY ON
WIND SFC OBS. LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS ARE LINGERING A BIT BEHIND THE
SFC FRONT SHIFT AS STRONGEST DP GRADIENTS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN NE
MISS AND SOUTHERN TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
RELATIVELY THETA-E RICH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES PER SPC ANALYSIS HAVE CLIMBED TO
ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
HAS AIDED IN TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, BROAD SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL LIMITED AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AND LARGELY LINEAR. SO, TSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAK/MDT
IN INTENSITY. FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...BETTER SHEAR HAS ENABLED SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...AS PEAK HEATING
IS REALIZED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FROM CULLMAN TO GUNTERSVILLE AND
SCOTTSBORO...AND POINTS EAST. BASED ON FCST/ANALYSIS SOUNDING
INFORMATION AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS...THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACT FROM STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE FRONTAL SURFACE UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850-900 MB SLIPS THROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
ESSENTIALLY CEASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE REMOVED FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
EVENING...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION WAS RETAINED FOR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BROAD/WEAKER FORCING WILL STILL RESULT IN LGT/MDT
SHRA ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY IS TO
OUR WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S TONIGHT...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE.

THE BROAD UPR TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME SHEARED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG EARLY
MAY INSOLATION HEATS UP THE BOUNDARY LYR OF THE ADVECTING COOLER
AIRMASS. PARCELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO
PRODUCE WELL-DEVELOPED CU AND PERHAPS ISOLD LGT SHRA IN EASTERN
AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPR TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THUS...WILL
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW. SB/ML
CAPE MAY REACH THE -10C LEVEL TOMORROW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN -TSRA
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY THIN FORECAST CAPE AT THESE
LEVELS...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES
APPEAR VERY SMALL.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER UPR COLD CORE LOW
MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE TUES INTO WED. BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WED...BUT SHOWERS AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DEEP NW FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MORNING LOWS ON THURS/FRI MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID/UPR
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
30S...SO MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORDS BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EXPECT THAT BORDERLINE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT MSL AFTER 02Z AND AT HSV AFTER 08Z TONIGHT
AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
FINALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT MSL AND HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 022101
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLICING
SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY ALIGNED
ROUGHLY FROM WINCHESTER, TO HUNTSVILLE TO SMITH LAKE BASED LARGELY ON
WIND SFC OBS. LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS ARE LINGERING A BIT BEHIND THE
SFC FRONT SHIFT AS STRONGEST DP GRADIENTS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN NE
MISS AND SOUTHERN TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
RELATIVELY THETA-E RICH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES PER SPC ANALYSIS HAVE CLIMBED TO
ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH
HAS AIDED IN TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, BROAD SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL LIMITED AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
LIMITED AND LARGELY LINEAR. SO, TSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAK/MDT
IN INTENSITY. FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...BETTER SHEAR HAS ENABLED SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...AS PEAK HEATING
IS REALIZED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY FROM CULLMAN TO GUNTERSVILLE AND
SCOTTSBORO...AND POINTS EAST. BASED ON FCST/ANALYSIS SOUNDING
INFORMATION AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS...THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACT FROM STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL. WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE FRONTAL SURFACE UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850-900 MB SLIPS THROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
ESSENTIALLY CEASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE REMOVED FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
EVENING...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION WAS RETAINED FOR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BROAD/WEAKER FORCING WILL STILL RESULT IN LGT/MDT
SHRA ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY IS TO
OUR WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S TONIGHT...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE.

THE BROAD UPR TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BECOME SHEARED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG EARLY
MAY INSOLATION HEATS UP THE BOUNDARY LYR OF THE ADVECTING COOLER
AIRMASS. PARCELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO
PRODUCE WELL-DEVELOPED CU AND PERHAPS ISOLD LGT SHRA IN EASTERN
AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPR TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THUS...WILL
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW. SB/ML
CAPE MAY REACH THE -10C LEVEL TOMORROW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN -TSRA
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY THIN FORECAST CAPE AT THESE
LEVELS...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES
APPEAR VERY SMALL.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER UPR COLD CORE LOW
MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION LATE TUES INTO WED. BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WED...BUT SHOWERS AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DEEP NW FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
MORNING LOWS ON THURS/FRI MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID/UPR
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
30S...SO MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORDS BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS N AL/S
MIDDLE TN FROM N MS. DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER
NE AL. ANTICIPATING THAT -TSRA WILL OCCUR BTWN 02/18Z-02/22Z NEAR THE
KHSV/KMSL SITES WHICH MAY DROP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW MVFR
TEMPORARILY. AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE OFF THE E/SE LOW MVFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER 03/02Z-03Z, BUT FOR NOW HAVE REDUCED VIS AND KEPT THE
MVFR CIGS AS SCT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  74  51  71 /  60  20  10  30
SHOALS        57  73  51  71 /  40  10  10  30
VINEMONT      56  72  49  69 /  60  20  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  57  71  50  69 /  50  20  20  40
ALBERTVILLE   58  72  51  69 /  70  20  10  20
FORT PAYNE    56  72  48  68 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN HELICITY CAUSED
BY A MESOLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THIS ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW
ALABAMA AROUND 11:30 AM. HIGHER POP WAS ADDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
AROUND 11 AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POP
TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 50 KT 500 MB JET...MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN
INSOLATION EVIDENT IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS N AL/S
MIDDLE TN FROM N MS. DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER
NE AL. ANTICIPATING THAT -TSRA WILL OCCUR BTWN 02/18Z-02/22Z NEAR THE
KHSV/KMSL SITES WHICH MAY DROP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW MVFR
TEMPORARILY. AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE OFF THE E/SE LOW MVFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER 03/02Z-03Z, BUT FOR NOW HAVE REDUCED VIS AND KEPT THE
MVFR CIGS AS SCT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN HELICITY CAUSED
BY A MESOLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THIS ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW
ALABAMA AROUND 11:30 AM. HIGHER POP WAS ADDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
AROUND 11 AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POP
TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 50 KT 500 MB JET...MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN
INSOLATION EVIDENT IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS N AL/S
MIDDLE TN FROM N MS. DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER
NE AL. ANTICIPATING THAT -TSRA WILL OCCUR BTWN 02/18Z-02/22Z NEAR THE
KHSV/KMSL SITES WHICH MAY DROP THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW MVFR
TEMPORARILY. AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE OFF THE E/SE LOW MVFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER 03/02Z-03Z, BUT FOR NOW HAVE REDUCED VIS AND KEPT THE
MVFR CIGS AS SCT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021530 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...TO ADJUST POP GRADIENT AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN HELICITY CAUSED
BY A MESOLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THIS ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW
ALABAMA AROUND 11:30 AM. HIGHER POP WAS ADDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
AROUND 11 AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POP
TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 50 KT 500 MB JET...MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN
INSOLATION EVIDENT IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
NEAR THE MS/AR BORDER. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NW AL
LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING
BEHIND THE LINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS TODAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE UNDER THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS MAY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BUT A TRAILING DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
STORMS INTO THE TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021334 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
834 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER AND REMOVE FOG THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE SOME CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...VERY LITTLE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VERY LIGHT FOG IN NORTHEAST
ALABAMA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR...DUE TO SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...REMOVING PATCHY FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS
SHOW WELL THE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES. THE MODELS KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BAY...EXCEPT IN LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE
65...UNTIL AROUND 1 PM. THEREFORE DROPPED CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGE TO
REFLECT THIS. AFTER 1 PM MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GEORGIA. SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
NEAR THE MS/AR BORDER. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NW AL
LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING
BEHIND THE LINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS TODAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE UNDER THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS MAY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BUT A TRAILING DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
STORMS INTO THE TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN TN THIS MORNING...AS THE
REGION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STIFLED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUS FAR
TONIGHT -- WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN BEING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY INVOF
SOUTHERN OHIO. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST INTO THE M70S
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...AND THIS COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M 60S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE UNTIL THIS EVENING
-- WHEN A STRONGER MID- LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE SHEAR EVEN
FURTHER. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

AS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS TONIGHT...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND THIS
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
00-06Z...ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM NW-TO-SE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LEVEL VORTICES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERNMOST VORTEX FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT TRACKS FROM KS INTO CENTRAL TN VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS MID- LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY ACROSS
NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY AS COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S/L50S WILL BE ADVECTED
SOUTHWARD AS A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN
WAKE OF THE INITIAL FRONT. ATTENTION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A STRONG UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AMPLIFYING EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH -- WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
THAT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPINGE ON THE CWFA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IN SPITE OF A
LACK OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE
U40S- L50S/...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A BROKEN
BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE LOW-
TOPPED...FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE SURFACE AND THIS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS...A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPREADS INLAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES. A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DISLODGE THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW...ALLOWING A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND TO BEGIN A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
NEAR THE MS/AR BORDER. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NW AL
LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING
BEHIND THE LINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS TODAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE UNDER THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS MAY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BUT A TRAILING DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
STORMS INTO THE TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 021105
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN TN THIS MORNING...AS THE
REGION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STIFLED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUS FAR
TONIGHT -- WITH THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN BEING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY INVOF
SOUTHERN OHIO. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST INTO THE M70S
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...AND THIS COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M 60S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE UNTIL THIS EVENING
-- WHEN A STRONGER MID- LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE SHEAR EVEN
FURTHER. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

AS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS TONIGHT...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND THIS
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
00-06Z...ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM NW-TO-SE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LEVEL VORTICES WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERNMOST VORTEX FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT TRACKS FROM KS INTO CENTRAL TN VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS MID- LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY ACROSS
NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY AS COOLER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S/L50S WILL BE ADVECTED
SOUTHWARD AS A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN
WAKE OF THE INITIAL FRONT. ATTENTION TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A STRONG UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AMPLIFYING EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH -- WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
THAT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPINGE ON THE CWFA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IN SPITE OF A
LACK OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE
U40S- L50S/...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A BROKEN
BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE LOW-
TOPPED...FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE SURFACE AND THIS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS...A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPREADS INLAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES. A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DISLODGE THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW...ALLOWING A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND TO BEGIN A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
FOR 06Z TAFS... MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
CIGS OF 020-025AGL FORM AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN BR PSBL. THE THREAT OF SHRA AND TSRA HAS
DIMINISHED, BUT A FEW REMAIN PSBL THRU MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY, AND PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    75  59  74  51 /  80  50  20  10
SHOALS        75  57  74  50 /  80  30  10  10
VINEMONT      75  58  73  50 /  80  50  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  74  57  71  48 /  80  60  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   76  60  73  51 /  80  60  20  20
FORT PAYNE    77  60  74  47 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 020453 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS LIMESTONE, MADISON INTO LINCOLN AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES WAS WEAKENING. THESE CELLS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED BASED ON OBSERVATION OF THE CLOUD BASES FROM HERE AT THE
WFO. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE UNSTABLE AIR TO OUR N THRU W, WHILE MORE
STABLE AIR LIES OVER NRN AND CENTRAL AL. THE COLD FRONT/CONVERGENCE
ZONE SITUATED ACROSS WRN TN INTO NWRN MS HAS LIT UP NEARLY STATIONARY
DEEP CONVECTION, SOME OF WHICH HAS PRODUCED LANDSPOUT-TYPE FUNNEL
CLOUDS. DESPITE 50-60KT 6KM BULK SHEAR, STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO FAR
NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER CAPE AIR IN THIS ZONE
MAY SHIFT WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS WE EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT
OF FOG, BUT WILL MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CIGS
OF 020-025AGL FORM AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN BR PSBL. THE THREAT OF SHRA AND TSRA HAS
DIMINISHED, BUT A FEW REMAIN PSBL THRU MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY, AND PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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