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000
FXUS64 KHUN 020542 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 817 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS W CENTRAL TN
TOWARDS NW AL TO NW GA HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR STORMS CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW OVER N AR. MEANWHILE, OVER THE TN VALLEY, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. AS
A RESULT, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND AREA COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT LIMITED TO AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ISOLATED CELLS
ARE NOTED ON KGWX RADAR OVER THAT AREA SW OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING W TN/N MS. THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS NECESSITATED KEEPING LOW-END ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. LIMITED INSTABILITY DOES EXIST BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY COVER OVER NE AL AND CLOSER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW AL
(CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER N MS/W TN) THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN,
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM
SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER). OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 02/10Z-
17Z AS LOW CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM SE GA EXPAND NORTH AND WEST. THEN
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS BTWN 17-01Z FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW AFTER
17Z AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER AR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020542 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 817 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS W CENTRAL TN
TOWARDS NW AL TO NW GA HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR STORMS CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW OVER N AR. MEANWHILE, OVER THE TN VALLEY, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. AS
A RESULT, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND AREA COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT LIMITED TO AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ISOLATED CELLS
ARE NOTED ON KGWX RADAR OVER THAT AREA SW OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING W TN/N MS. THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS NECESSITATED KEEPING LOW-END ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. LIMITED INSTABILITY DOES EXIST BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY COVER OVER NE AL AND CLOSER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW AL
(CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER N MS/W TN) THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN,
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM
SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER). OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 02/10Z-
17Z AS LOW CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM SE GA EXPAND NORTH AND WEST. THEN
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS BTWN 17-01Z FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW AFTER
17Z AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER AR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 020542 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 817 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS W CENTRAL TN
TOWARDS NW AL TO NW GA HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR STORMS CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW OVER N AR. MEANWHILE, OVER THE TN VALLEY, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. AS
A RESULT, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND AREA COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT LIMITED TO AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ISOLATED CELLS
ARE NOTED ON KGWX RADAR OVER THAT AREA SW OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING W TN/N MS. THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS NECESSITATED KEEPING LOW-END ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. LIMITED INSTABILITY DOES EXIST BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY COVER OVER NE AL AND CLOSER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW AL
(CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER N MS/W TN) THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN,
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM
SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER). OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 02/10Z-
17Z AS LOW CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM SE GA EXPAND NORTH AND WEST. THEN
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS BTWN 17-01Z FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW AFTER
17Z AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER AR.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 020117 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
817 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST, TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, SKY
COVER TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS W CENTRAL TN
TOWARDS NW AL TO NW GA HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR STORMS CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW OVER N AR. MEANWHILE, OVER THE TN VALLEY, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. AS
A RESULT, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND AREA COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT LIMITED TO AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ISOLATED CELLS
ARE NOTED ON KGWX RADAR OVER THAT AREA SW OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING W TN/N MS. THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS NECESSITATED KEEPING LOW-END ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. LIMITED INSTABILITY DOES EXIST BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY COVER OVER NE AL AND CLOSER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW AL
(CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER N MS/W TN) THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN,
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM
SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER). OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH WITH A SCT MFVR DECK AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BY 12Z
AND INCREASE TO 13 KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS (POSSIBLY 20 KTS) AFTER
17-18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 020117 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
817 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST, TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, SKY
COVER TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS W CENTRAL TN
TOWARDS NW AL TO NW GA HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR STORMS CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW OVER N AR. MEANWHILE, OVER THE TN VALLEY, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. AS
A RESULT, HAVE REDUCED POPS AND AREA COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT LIMITED TO AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ISOLATED CELLS
ARE NOTED ON KGWX RADAR OVER THAT AREA SW OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING W TN/N MS. THEN, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE DEPICTING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS NECESSITATED KEEPING LOW-END ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. LIMITED INSTABILITY DOES EXIST BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO NECESSARY TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY COVER OVER NE AL AND CLOSER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW AL
(CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER N MS/W TN) THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN,
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT FROM
SW TO NE (WARMER TO COOLER). OTHERWISE, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH WITH A SCT MFVR DECK AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BY 12Z
AND INCREASE TO 13 KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS (POSSIBLY 20 KTS) AFTER
17-18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 012338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR MSL TO 4A9. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEARLY 60
DEGREES. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN WARMER/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INCREASING AND SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIFTED INDICES DO DROP TO BETWEEN
-4 TO -6 ALONG WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT THAT THE SLIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ON EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. A
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN
MOMENTUM BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH WITH A SCT MFVR DECK AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BY 12Z
AND INCREASE TO 13 KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS (POSSIBLY 20 KTS) AFTER
17-18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 012338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR MSL TO 4A9. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEARLY 60
DEGREES. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN WARMER/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INCREASING AND SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIFTED INDICES DO DROP TO BETWEEN
-4 TO -6 ALONG WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT THAT THE SLIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ON EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. A
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN
MOMENTUM BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH WITH A SCT MFVR DECK AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO SW BY 12Z
AND INCREASE TO 13 KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS (POSSIBLY 20 KTS) AFTER
17-18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR MSL TO 4A9. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEARLY 60
DEGREES. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN WARMER/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INCREASING AND SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIFTED INDICES DO DROP TO BETWEEN
-4 TO -6 ALONG WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT THAT THE SLIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ON EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. A
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN
MOMENTUM BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  79  60  75 /  20  40  20  60
SHOALS        57  79  61  75 /  20  40  20  70
VINEMONT      56  77  59  74 /  20  40  20  60
FAYETTEVILLE  55  75  59  73 /  20  40  20  60
ALBERTVILLE   57  75  57  74 /  20  40  20  50
FORT PAYNE    53  76  56  74 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 011946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR MSL TO 4A9. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEARLY 60
DEGREES. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN WARMER/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INCREASING AND SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIFTED INDICES DO DROP TO BETWEEN
-4 TO -6 ALONG WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT THAT THE SLIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ON EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. A
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN
MOMENTUM BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  79  60  75 /  20  40  20  60
SHOALS        57  79  61  75 /  20  40  20  70
VINEMONT      56  77  59  74 /  20  40  20  60
FAYETTEVILLE  55  75  59  73 /  20  40  20  60
ALBERTVILLE   57  75  57  74 /  20  40  20  50
FORT PAYNE    53  76  56  74 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011734 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE SHALLOW FOG THAT FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED
LEAVING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS
MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS BOTTLED UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LEFT IN THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS MAY BE DRY...BUT THERE IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING IN. AS FOR LIFT...THERE IS SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL AL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT IS CREATING A LARGE GRADIENT AND HAS
SLOWED DOWN ON TIMING...AND WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SHIFTS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011734 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE SHALLOW FOG THAT FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED
LEAVING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS
MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS BOTTLED UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LEFT IN THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS MAY BE DRY...BUT THERE IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING IN. AS FOR LIFT...THERE IS SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL AL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT IS CREATING A LARGE GRADIENT AND HAS
SLOWED DOWN ON TIMING...AND WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SHIFTS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 011734 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE SHALLOW FOG THAT FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED
LEAVING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS
MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS BOTTLED UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LEFT IN THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS MAY BE DRY...BUT THERE IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING IN. AS FOR LIFT...THERE IS SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL AL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT IS CREATING A LARGE GRADIENT AND HAS
SLOWED DOWN ON TIMING...AND WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SHIFTS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011734 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE SHALLOW FOG THAT FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED
LEAVING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS
MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS BOTTLED UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LEFT IN THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS MAY BE DRY...BUT THERE IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING IN. AS FOR LIFT...THERE IS SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL AL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT IS CREATING A LARGE GRADIENT AND HAS
SLOWED DOWN ON TIMING...AND WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SHIFTS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 011540 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW FOG THAT FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED
LEAVING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS
MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS BOTTLED UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LEFT IN THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS MAY BE DRY...BUT THERE IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING IN. AS FOR LIFT...THERE IS SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL AL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT IS CREATING A LARGE GRADIENT AND HAS
SLOWED DOWN ON TIMING...AND WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SHIFTS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011540 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW FOG THAT FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED
LEAVING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER BUT IS
MOSTLY A WIND AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS BOTTLED UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LEFT IN THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS MAY BE DRY...BUT THERE IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING IN. AS FOR LIFT...THERE IS SLIGHT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL AL DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD BUT LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT IS CREATING A LARGE GRADIENT AND HAS
SLOWED DOWN ON TIMING...AND WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SHIFTS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 011217
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 011217
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011217
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 011217
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ARND 12Z. A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY 18Z. ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY PCPN IN TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    75  58  79  60 /  20  20  40  20
SHOALS        76  57  79  61 /  20  20  40  20
VINEMONT      75  56  76  59 /  20  20  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  74  55  75  59 /  20  20  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   76  57  74  57 /  20  20  40  20
FORT PAYNE    75  53  76  56 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 011023
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ARND 12Z. A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY 18Z. ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY PCPN IN TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    75  58  79  60 /  20  20  40  20
SHOALS        76  57  79  61 /  20  20  40  20
VINEMONT      75  56  76  59 /  20  20  40  20
FAYETTEVILLE  74  55  75  59 /  20  20  40  20
ALBERTVILLE   76  57  74  57 /  20  20  40  20
FORT PAYNE    75  53  76  56 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 010504
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ARND 12Z. A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY 18Z. ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY PCPN IN TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 010504
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ARND 12Z. A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY 18Z. ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY PCPN IN TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 010504
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ARND 12Z. A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY 18Z. ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY PCPN IN TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312327
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSRA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH ALL
PCPN ENDING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MRNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR IN TSRA .

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312327
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSRA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH ALL
PCPN ENDING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MRNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR IN TSRA .

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 312327
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSRA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH ALL
PCPN ENDING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MRNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR IN TSRA .

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312327
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSRA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT WITH ALL
PCPN ENDING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MRNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR IN TSRA .

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 312015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECAME
STATIONARY AND IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BOUNDARY IS STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THANKS
TO QUICK HEATING TODAY AND DEW POINTS RISING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN A FEW HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS HIGH AS OF
20Z AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE A FEW WILL
BE SEVERE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND IN THE COLUMN TODAY SO LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. BUT WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK
OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THIS FIRST
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND TRACK SOUTH. THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-3Z. WITH THE SUNSET AND
EARLIER STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR DECREASING. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT ALOFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SO WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

BEHIND THAT FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE FRONT/RAIN GOES THROUGH IN THE WARNING. A WARM MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT IMAGINE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BE POP UP AFTERNOON
HEATING TYPES AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED HAVE WARMED UP A FEW DEG OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATOCU WED ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMER
TEMP FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE STRATOCU COULD HAVE HIGHER AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT THE TEMPS TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN FORECAST VALUES FOR WED.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z BUT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z.
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. THINKING WE WILL BE ON THE DECAYING EDGE
OF A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING SAT/SUN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEPARTING
TUE-THU...WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. CONTINUED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY MON-WED WITH JUST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/DGEX HINTS AT SOME SORT OF MCS
SET UP FOR MONDAY. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE IN TERMS
OF TIMING SO THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  78  58  78 /  40  20  30  50
SHOALS        50  78  59  80 /  40  20  30  50
VINEMONT      51  76  58  75 /  50  20  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  47  73  56  74 /  40  20  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   51  76  58  74 /  40  20  30  50
FORT PAYNE    48  74  56  73 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311707 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND A CLEARING TREND. THERE IS
SOME RISK OF BR/FG IF RAINFALL IS WIDESPREAD, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM.


AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311525 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311525 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...AS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WARM...THE
INVERSION ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUE...ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE GREATER. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE ALABAMA COUNTIES.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...PREDOM CLR SKIES/VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM...BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN/NEAR HEAVIER
TSRA...WHERE BRIEF/TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310502
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310216
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310216
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310216
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
916 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER MOST OF THE SERN US WITH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA ATTM. HOWEVER CI CLOUDS TO OUR NW AND LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SWRN US...WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ATTM THE FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. NEW 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THAT
PCPN MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY
MRNG.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302338
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SERN US. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLR UNTIL ARND 11Z. AFTER 11Z
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. PCPN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SCT SHRA TUESDAY MRNG AND
TRANSITION TO SCT TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
MVFR IN TSRA...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301648 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301648 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301502 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PATCHY FOG, ADJUSTED SKY COVER, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE, AND AIR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301502 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1002 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PATCHY FOG, ADJUSTED SKY COVER, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE, AND AIR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INSOLATION AND DRIER AIRMASS (SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER W TN/E AR)
BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS DISSIPATED THE
POST QLCS CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER OVER NORTH
ALABAMA (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL). THUS, HAVE INCREASED FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER NW AL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT IS OCCURRING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE, HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THOSE CHANGES.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301257 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING AND TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING MCS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA. WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FUTHERMORE, DUE TO THE QUICK CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL/S MIDDLE TN). SO, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FOREAST THROUGH 15Z WHEN AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
EVAPORATE IT.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
VIS SATELLITE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301257 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING AND TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING MCS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA. WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FUTHERMORE, DUE TO THE QUICK CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL/S MIDDLE TN). SO, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FOREAST THROUGH 15Z WHEN AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
EVAPORATE IT.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
VIS SATELLITE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301257 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING AND TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING MCS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL AND
CENTRAL GA. WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. FUTHERMORE, DUE TO THE QUICK CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL/S MIDDLE TN). SO, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FOREAST THROUGH 15Z WHEN AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
EVAPORATE IT.

OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
VIS SATELLITE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS OVER NE AL/S MIDDLE TN.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
637 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING CONVECTION WILL
FADE EARLY IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...
WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING BETWEEN 30/13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF. NW WINDS UNDER 10KT TODAY...
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AFTER DUSK. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE TAF
SHOULD MINIMIZE LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/PRECIP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD
THROUGH NRN AL/GA THIS EARLY MON MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/ARKLATEX
REGIONS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAIN THOUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE
THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. UNTIL THEN...A FEW MORE EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES FOR
A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BELOW H5.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WX IS XPCTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE REGION. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRING LIKE PATTERN IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE BY MID WEEK...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVE WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN
TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE NW/PLAINS STATES ALSO LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AFTER WED. ENERGY COMING TOGETHER ALONG THESE VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES/DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS
THAT THE BLENDED CONSENSUS STILL HAS THE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART
CLEARING OUT BY THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS XPCTED BY SUN.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  45  73  51 /  30  10  30  30
SHOALS        69  43  74  52 /  20  10  30  30
VINEMONT      66  43  71  51 /  30  10  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  65  40  71  50 /  20  10  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  41  69  50 /  40  10  30  30
FORT PAYNE    66  39  70  47 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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