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000
FXUS64 KHUN 301200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS MORNING AS DENSE
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A THICK IFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING NWWD FROM NE ALABAMA/NW GEORGIA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT FURTHER VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL VERY LIMITED AT HSV...WITH IFR
STRATUS CIGS PSBL THRU 30/15Z. AT MSL...VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL STRATUS DECK ARRIVES ARND 13Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING BY
15Z AT THIS TERMINAL AS WELL. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD...WITH SCT CU THIS AFTN BENEATH SCT/BKN CI. SCT CI WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY REDUCE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL THRU THE
PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301044
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  60  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        87  61  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      85  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  85  58  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   85  60  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    85  58  86  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301044
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS SLIDING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE MS VALLEY TODAY. STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WEST INTO THE HUN CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS HELD OFF FOG FORMATION FOR A
LITTLE BIT...BUT LOCATIONS MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROPS.

WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY AND WED...CAN EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SW FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WED WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH S FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH WED NIGHT AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LAPSE
RATES LOOK WEAK ON THURS BUT HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR 30-40KTS.
ITS NOT UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT THAT THE LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY
STEEPEN...AND THE SHEAR REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE 30-40KTS ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
HUN CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING SO LEFT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN.

LOOK FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS STARTING ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THIS COLDER AIR TO
SETTLE IN. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD STILL BE CHILLY WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF COLD AIR AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. BUT TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  60  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        87  61  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      85  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  85  58  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   85  60  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    85  58  86  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 300511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300511
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 300114
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST ATTM...JUST SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STLT WAS SHOWING SOME SCT/BKN MID
LAYER CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE CWA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OHX 00Z U/A WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WITH BHM A LITTLE MORE MOIST...THUS WILL KEEP PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN ZONES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SINCE ITS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FCST
LOOKS GOOD.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON M/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO CEILING ISSUES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VALLEY FOG ANYWHERE FROM LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON M/
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAS
HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS ~50. /17/

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAS
HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO CEILING ISSUES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VALLEY FOG ANYWHERE FROM LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL VISBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.







000
FXUS64 KHUN 292332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAS
HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NO CEILING ISSUES ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VALLEY FOG ANYWHERE FROM LATE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POTENTIAL VISBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 291948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRYER AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WAS HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOW ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.
17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.







000
FXUS64 KHUN 291948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRYER AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WAS HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOW ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.
17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 291620
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
TOOK OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRYER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM 80-85./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  87  59  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        57  88  60  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      60  85  61  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  85  57  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   56  85  59  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  85  57  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






000
FXUS64 KHUN 291620
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
TOOK OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRYER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM 80-85./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  87  59  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        57  88  60  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      60  85  61  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  85  57  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   56  85  59  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    58  85  57  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.







000
FXUS64 KHUN 291202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THREAT FOR -RA DIMINISHING AT
HSV/MSL. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT HSV FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MSL AND WILL
INTRODUCE 3SM AS PREVAILING COND THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SCT CU
ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO 7-9
KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD
AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THREAT FOR -RA DIMINISHING AT
HSV/MSL. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT HSV FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MSL AND WILL
INTRODUCE 3SM AS PREVAILING COND THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT SCT CU
ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO 7-9
KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD
AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1241 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY -RA PSBL.  SCT
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  59  87  59 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        86  57  88  60 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      83  60  85  61 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  83  57  85  57 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   82  56  85  59 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    82  58  85  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291024
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING IS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS NOTED
AT 850MB. MOST OF THE PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAS NOT MADE IT
TO THE GROUND WITH THE HIGHER CEILING HEIGHTS. THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH OUT WEST THAT
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND A TROUGH IN THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TODAY A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY E OF I-65 ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR
MAINLY VALLEYS/BODIES OF WATER LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
DECREASE...WINDS SLACK AND MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE COULD
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR FOG EVEN THOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL /MID 80S/ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. THE EURO BRINGS IN THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING...AS IT HAS CHANGED
ON MODEL RUNS AND DIFFERED BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CAPE
AND SHEAR...CAPE +1000 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KTS 0-6KM. WILL LEAN
MORESO WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMING IN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO PARAMETERS FOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURS AFTN/EVENING FOR ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
CHANGES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS ~50. AS FOR THE GRIDS...HAD TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND THE DRY AIR BEHIND IT. ALSO RAISED UP THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1241 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY -RA PSBL.  SCT
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  59  87  59 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        86  57  88  60 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      83  60  85  61 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  83  57  85  57 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   82  56  85  59 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    82  58  85  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290541 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 812 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
DESPITE A PW OF 1.85 INCHES AT KBMX AND A RATHER MOIST PROFILE
DEPTH, THERE IS LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT ON RADAR. MOST CIGS ARE AOA
15KFT IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE THAT
PARTIAL CLEARING COULD EVEN TAKE PLACE IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES. THERE IS
A WEAK S-N INVERTED TROF AT 850 MB EAST OF I-65 THAT SLOWLY SHIFTS
WWD TONIGHT. WE WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT RAINFALL JUST YET, AND
LEAVE A 20 POP AREAWIDE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY -RA PSBL.  SCT
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290112 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
812 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TO LOWER POP TONIGHT TO 20 PCT AND OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIT
CURRENT T/TD TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A PW OF 1.85 INCHES AT KBMX AND A RATHER MOIST PROFILE
DEPTH, THERE IS LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT ON RADAR. MOST CIGS ARE AOA
15KFT IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE THAT
PARTIAL CLEARING COULD EVEN TAKE PLACE IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES. THERE IS
A WEAK S-N INVERTED TROF AT 850 MB EAST OF I-65 THAT SLOWLY SHIFTS
WWD TONIGHT. WE WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT RAINFALL JUST YET, AND
LEAVE A 20 POP AREAWIDE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
TONIGHT. RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROB ATTM, AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE FCST. SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. A FEW SHRA COULD DEVELOP, BUT AGAIN
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290112 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
812 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TO LOWER POP TONIGHT TO 20 PCT AND OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIT
CURRENT T/TD TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A PW OF 1.85 INCHES AT KBMX AND A RATHER MOIST PROFILE
DEPTH, THERE IS LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT ON RADAR. MOST CIGS ARE AOA
15KFT IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE THAT
PARTIAL CLEARING COULD EVEN TAKE PLACE IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES. THERE IS
A WEAK S-N INVERTED TROF AT 850 MB EAST OF I-65 THAT SLOWLY SHIFTS
WWD TONIGHT. WE WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT RAINFALL JUST YET, AND
LEAVE A 20 POP AREAWIDE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 549 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
TONIGHT. RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROB ATTM, AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE FCST. SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. A FEW SHRA COULD DEVELOP, BUT AGAIN
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 282249 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN MOVING
THE BULK OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS NOW DEPICT THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL MAINLY MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HAVE LOWERED POPS AT MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER BY MONDAY...AND WILL LOWER AND END POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND MORE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MODELS...TO DIFFERING DEGREES...PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL REMAINS
AROUND SIX HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL INVOLVING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL TIMING
INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT. THIS TIMING WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
AS THERE HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATIONS INVOLVING THE TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HINDER ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IN A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WILL TREND TOWARD AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
TONIGHT. RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROB ATTM, AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE FCST. SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. A FEW SHRA COULD DEVELOP, BUT AGAIN
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 282249 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN MOVING
THE BULK OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS NOW DEPICT THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL MAINLY MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HAVE LOWERED POPS AT MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER BY MONDAY...AND WILL LOWER AND END POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND MORE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MODELS...TO DIFFERING DEGREES...PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL REMAINS
AROUND SIX HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL INVOLVING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL TIMING
INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT. THIS TIMING WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
AS THERE HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATIONS INVOLVING THE TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HINDER ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IN A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WILL TREND TOWARD AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
TONIGHT. RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROB ATTM, AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE FCST. SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. A FEW SHRA COULD DEVELOP, BUT AGAIN
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281935
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN MOVING
THE BULK OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS NOW DEPICT THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL MAINLY MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN RECENT MODEL RUNS. HAVE LOWERED POPS AT MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

THE SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER BY MONDAY...AND WILL LOWER AND END POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESSER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND MORE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MODELS...TO DIFFERING DEGREES...PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL REMAINS
AROUND SIX HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL INVOLVING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL TIMING
INVOLVING THE COLD FRONT. THIS TIMING WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED
AS THERE HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATIONS INVOLVING THE TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HINDER ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IN A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WILL TREND TOWARD AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE COOLER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE CNTRL GULF REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS.
THE PROB FOR SHRA THOUGH IS DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE PRECIP NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL S/E OF THE TERMINALS INTO MON.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  85  60  87 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        62  86  58  88 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      63  83  57  85 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  61  83  57  85 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   63  82  57  85 /  40  30  10  10
FORT PAYNE    63  82  57  85 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281720 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION THIS
LATE SUN MORNING...WHICH MAKES FOR A TOUGH ANALYSIS/FORECAST. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP S OF MOBILE BAY...UNDER A
RELATIVELY WEAK/OPEN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
INTERMEDIATE/MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TAKING MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM MORE E/S
OF THE LOCAL AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. IN FACT...ANY RAIN
THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM MAY VERY WELL BE DRIVEN MORE BY WEAK UPPER
FORCING FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGIONS LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80F MARK.
OTHER THAN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND REFRESHING SOME OF THE
HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE CNTRL GULF REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS.
THE PROB FOR SHRA THOUGH IS DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE PRECIP NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL S/E OF THE TERMINALS INTO MON.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281720 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION THIS
LATE SUN MORNING...WHICH MAKES FOR A TOUGH ANALYSIS/FORECAST. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP S OF MOBILE BAY...UNDER A
RELATIVELY WEAK/OPEN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
INTERMEDIATE/MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TAKING MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM MORE E/S
OF THE LOCAL AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. IN FACT...ANY RAIN
THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM MAY VERY WELL BE DRIVEN MORE BY WEAK UPPER
FORCING FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGIONS LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80F MARK.
OTHER THAN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND REFRESHING SOME OF THE
HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SFC WAVE OVER THE CNTRL GULF REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS.
THE PROB FOR SHRA THOUGH IS DIMINISHING AS MOST OF THE PRECIP NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL S/E OF THE TERMINALS INTO MON.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281615 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1115 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES LOWERED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION THIS
LATE SUN MORNING...WHICH MAKES FOR A TOUGH ANALYSIS/FORECAST. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP S OF MOBILE BAY...UNDER A
RELATIVELY WEAK/OPEN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
INTERMEDIATE/MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TAKING MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM MORE E/S
OF THE LOCAL AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. IN FACT...ANY RAIN
THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM MAY VERY WELL BE DRIVEN MORE BY WEAK UPPER
FORCING FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGIONS LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80F MARK.
OTHER THAN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND REFRESHING SOME OF THE
HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE ATTM. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING A
THICKENING DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A SEPARATE VORT MAX -- CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF -- EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL ALSO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND MAY INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
GULF COAST VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ONCE AGAIN...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS -- BUT WILL PLACE SLIGHTLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ORIENTATION. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE...THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. A FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT BASED ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S -- APPROXIMATELY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 20-30 SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281615 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1115 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES LOWERED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION THIS
LATE SUN MORNING...WHICH MAKES FOR A TOUGH ANALYSIS/FORECAST. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP S OF MOBILE BAY...UNDER A
RELATIVELY WEAK/OPEN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
INTERMEDIATE/MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TAKING MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM MORE E/S
OF THE LOCAL AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. IN FACT...ANY RAIN
THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM MAY VERY WELL BE DRIVEN MORE BY WEAK UPPER
FORCING FROM A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGIONS LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80F MARK.
OTHER THAN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND REFRESHING SOME OF THE
HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE ATTM. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING A
THICKENING DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A SEPARATE VORT MAX -- CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF -- EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL ALSO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND MAY INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
GULF COAST VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ONCE AGAIN...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS -- BUT WILL PLACE SLIGHTLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ORIENTATION. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE...THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. A FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT BASED ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S -- APPROXIMATELY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 20-30 SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281131 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING A
THICKENING DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A SEPARATE VORT MAX -- CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF -- EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL ALSO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND MAY INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
GULF COAST VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ONCE AGAIN...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS -- BUT WILL PLACE SLIGHTLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ORIENTATION. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE...THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. A FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT BASED ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S -- APPROXIMATELY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 20-30 SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE ATTM. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281131 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING A
THICKENING DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A SEPARATE VORT MAX -- CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF -- EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL ALSO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND MAY INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
GULF COAST VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ONCE AGAIN...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS -- BUT WILL PLACE SLIGHTLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ORIENTATION. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE...THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. A FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT BASED ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S -- APPROXIMATELY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 20-30 SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE ATTM. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281019
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING A
THICKENING DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A SEPARATE VORT MAX -- CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF -- EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL ALSO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND MAY INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
GULF COAST VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ONCE AGAIN...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS -- BUT WILL PLACE SLIGHTLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ORIENTATION. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE...THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. A FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT BASED ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S -- APPROXIMATELY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 20-30 SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    79  64  85  60 /  30  30  20  10
SHOALS        81  62  86  58 /  30  30  20  10
VINEMONT      78  63  83  57 /  30  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  78  61  83  57 /  30  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   78  63  82  57 /  40  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    77  63  82  57 /  40  50  40  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281019
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...WITH IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING A
THICKENING DECK OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A SEPARATE VORT MAX -- CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF -- EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL ALSO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK QG
ASCENT FROM STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND MAY INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
GULF COAST VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ONCE AGAIN...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SET UP FROM EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS -- BUT WILL PLACE SLIGHTLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ORIENTATION. DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE...THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. A FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT BASED ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S -- APPROXIMATELY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
THE REGION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 20-30 SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S NEXT WEEKEND.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    79  64  85  60 /  30  30  20  10
SHOALS        81  62  86  58 /  30  30  20  10
VINEMONT      78  63  83  57 /  30  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  78  61  83  57 /  30  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   78  63  82  57 /  40  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    77  63  82  57 /  40  50  40  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280521 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 822 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
DAYTIME CU/SC HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, WHILE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITHIN A MOIST SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE BMX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL, WITH A MOIST
LAYER AT 4-6KFT, A RATHER DRY LAYER FROM 6-13KFT, FOLLOWED BY PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ABOVE 13KFT. BESIDES SHALLOW E-SELY FLOW (BLO 4KFT), S-SWLY
FLOW IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COLUMN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY MID LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS AND SKY COVER WERE ADJUSTED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DRAINAGE VALLEY COOLING IS OCCURRING RATHER
QUICKLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON THOUGH. WE LOWERED MINS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IN OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THINNER LONGER. VERY CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z RUNS HAVE TO OFFER.
THE 18Z RUNS BASICALLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN HEAVY PRECIP FOCUS REMAINING JUST TO OUR SE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD.

AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 280521 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 822 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
DAYTIME CU/SC HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, WHILE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITHIN A MOIST SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE BMX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL, WITH A MOIST
LAYER AT 4-6KFT, A RATHER DRY LAYER FROM 6-13KFT, FOLLOWED BY PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ABOVE 13KFT. BESIDES SHALLOW E-SELY FLOW (BLO 4KFT), S-SWLY
FLOW IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COLUMN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY MID LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS AND SKY COVER WERE ADJUSTED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DRAINAGE VALLEY COOLING IS OCCURRING RATHER
QUICKLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON THOUGH. WE LOWERED MINS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IN OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THINNER LONGER. VERY CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z RUNS HAVE TO OFFER.
THE 18Z RUNS BASICALLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN HEAVY PRECIP FOCUS REMAINING JUST TO OUR SE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD.

AK

&&


.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280122 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
822 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE POP AFTER 06Z, ADJUST SKY CONDITION, AND ADJUST TEMP TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME CU/SC HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, WHILE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITHIN A MOIST SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE BMX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL, WITH A MOIST
LAYER AT 4-6KFT, A RATHER DRY LAYER FROM 6-13KFT, FOLLOWED BY PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ABOVE 13KFT. BESIDES SHALLOW E-SELY FLOW (BLO 4KFT), S-SWLY
FLOW IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COLUMN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY MID LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS AND SKY COVER WERE ADJUSTED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DRAINAGE VALLEY COOLING IS OCCURRING RATHER
QUICKLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON THOUGH. WE LOWERED MINS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IN OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THINNER LONGER. VERY CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z RUNS HAVE TO OFFER.
THE 18Z RUNS BASICALLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN HEAVY PRECIP FOCUS REMAINING JUST TO OUR SE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED SHRA
ARE PSBL IN NORTHWEST AL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD AFFECT KMSL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD. A LARGER AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SE OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWERING ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 280122 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
822 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE POP AFTER 06Z, ADJUST SKY CONDITION, AND ADJUST TEMP TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME CU/SC HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, WHILE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITHIN A MOIST SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE BMX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL, WITH A MOIST
LAYER AT 4-6KFT, A RATHER DRY LAYER FROM 6-13KFT, FOLLOWED BY PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ABOVE 13KFT. BESIDES SHALLOW E-SELY FLOW (BLO 4KFT), S-SWLY
FLOW IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE COLUMN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND STREAMFLOW INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY MID LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS AND SKY COVER WERE ADJUSTED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DRAINAGE VALLEY COOLING IS OCCURRING RATHER
QUICKLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON THOUGH. WE LOWERED MINS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IN OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THINNER LONGER. VERY CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z RUNS HAVE TO OFFER.
THE 18Z RUNS BASICALLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN HEAVY PRECIP FOCUS REMAINING JUST TO OUR SE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED SHRA
ARE PSBL IN NORTHWEST AL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD AFFECT KMSL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD. A LARGER AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SE OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWERING ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 272302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 70S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.
TEMPS WERE NEAR 80 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT INVOLVING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY...LIMITING PRECIP TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM
1.7 TO CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FORECAST AREA
WIDE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE OVERALL TIMING AND SETUP OF THE EVENT
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF STORMS AND WILL
KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING THE RAIN
IN UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY RAIN EVENT WILL SLOWLY DEPART
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING...AS THE SHORT
WAVE/SURFACE LOW AND PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO THE EAST
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE OF A ZONAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND CAPE VALUES
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS AND A
DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED SHRA
ARE PSBL IN NORTHWEST AL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD AFFECT KMSL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD. A LARGER AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SE OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWERING ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 272302 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 70S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.
TEMPS WERE NEAR 80 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT INVOLVING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY...LIMITING PRECIP TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM
1.7 TO CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FORECAST AREA
WIDE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE OVERALL TIMING AND SETUP OF THE EVENT
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF STORMS AND WILL
KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING THE RAIN
IN UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY RAIN EVENT WILL SLOWLY DEPART
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING...AS THE SHORT
WAVE/SURFACE LOW AND PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO THE EAST
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE OF A ZONAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND CAPE VALUES
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS AND A
DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED SHRA
ARE PSBL IN NORTHWEST AL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD AFFECT KMSL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD. A LARGER AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SE OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWERING ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 272015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 70S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.
TEMPS WERE NEAR 80 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT INVOLVING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY...LIMITING PRECIP TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM
1.7 TO CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FORECAST AREA
WIDE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE OVERALL TIMING AND SETUP OF THE EVENT
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF STORMS AND WILL
KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING THE RAIN
IN UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY RAIN EVENT WILL SLOWLY DEPART
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING...AS THE SHORT
WAVE/SURFACE LOW AND PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO THE EAST
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE OF A ZONAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND CAPE VALUES
SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS AND A
DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR KHSV AND KMSL. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH OUTSIDE OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  76  65  80 /  20  70  70  50
SHOALS        63  77  63  82 /  30  70  70  30
VINEMONT      63  75  64  78 /  30  70  70  50
FAYETTEVILLE  61  76  63  78 /  20  60  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   62  74  64  78 /  20  70  70  60
FORT PAYNE    61  75  65  77 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 271536
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE...OTHERWISE ALL IS ON
TRACK. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM BMX/BNA REVEAL DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. MOIST LOW
LEVELS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PER MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES GOING. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOL
OVER NORTHEAST AL AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM...BUT EXPECT
INCREASED MIXING LATER TODAY TO ALLOW FORECAST HIGHS TO BE MET. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
KHSV AND KMSL...BUT LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD DROP KHSV DOWN TO
MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 541 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE OR
FORECAST REASONING SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE WEST
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND TO THE EAST OF A BROAD REGION OF LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 310-320K WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AND WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE SABINE VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEVADA. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND ALLOW PWAT VALUES TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY --
PEAKING IN THE 1.7-2 INCH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS GENERATED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -- AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 300-320K FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RAINFALL MAY BEGIN A BIT EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY EJECT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL SETUP OF EVENT SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND WILL REFRAIN FROM
MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN STRATIFORM NATURE OF
RAINFALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THE FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE EAST OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BUT
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S AT NIGHT TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THE DAY.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO STRENGTHEN. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S-AROUND 70 RANGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THIS. ALTHOUGH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGER THAN WITH SYSTEMS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY...
WITH VALUES OF 30-40 KTS MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.







000
FXUS64 KHUN 271536
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE...OTHERWISE ALL IS ON
TRACK. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM BMX/BNA REVEAL DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. MOIST LOW
LEVELS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PER MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES GOING. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOL
OVER NORTHEAST AL AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM...BUT EXPECT
INCREASED MIXING LATER TODAY TO ALLOW FORECAST HIGHS TO BE MET. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
KHSV AND KMSL...BUT LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD DROP KHSV DOWN TO
MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

JMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 541 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE OR
FORECAST REASONING SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE WEST
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND TO THE EAST OF A BROAD REGION OF LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 310-320K WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AND WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE SABINE VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEVADA. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL
STRENGTHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND ALLOW PWAT VALUES TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY --
PEAKING IN THE 1.7-2 INCH RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS -- COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS GENERATED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -- AND SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 300-320K FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RAINFALL MAY BEGIN A BIT EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE MAY EJECT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL SETUP OF EVENT SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND WILL REFRAIN FROM
MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN STRATIFORM NATURE OF
RAINFALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...THE FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE EAST OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BUT
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S AT NIGHT TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THE DAY.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO STRENGTHEN. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S-AROUND 70 RANGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THIS. ALTHOUGH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGER THAN WITH SYSTEMS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY...
WITH VALUES OF 30-40 KTS MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.






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