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000
FXUS64 KHUN 190233
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES...OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN AL WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S COMPARED TO
ARND 70 OVER SRN AL. ALSO RADARS WERE SHOWING HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW
STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. ATTM
ONLY SOME LIGHT SHRA WERE NOTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM WAS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE TN VALLEY ARND 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX OVERNIGHT
BUT ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN.

THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. UPDATED FCST/GRIDS
ALREADY SENT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ARND 02Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL SHRA. FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN BEGINNING ARND 18Z. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT...COULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF SITE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
02Z AND THEN BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z MAINLY MVFR. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190233
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES...OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN AL WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S COMPARED TO
ARND 70 OVER SRN AL. ALSO RADARS WERE SHOWING HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW
STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. ATTM
ONLY SOME LIGHT SHRA WERE NOTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM WAS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE TN VALLEY ARND 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX OVERNIGHT
BUT ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HVY RAIN.

THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. UPDATED FCST/GRIDS
ALREADY SENT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ARND 02Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL SHRA. FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN BEGINNING ARND 18Z. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT...COULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF SITE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
02Z AND THEN BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z MAINLY MVFR. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 182350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ARND 02Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL SHRA. FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN BEGINNING ARND 18Z. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT...COULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF SITE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
02Z AND THEN BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z MAINLY MVFR. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 182350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ARND 02Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL SHRA. FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN BEGINNING ARND 18Z. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT...COULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF SITE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
02Z AND THEN BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z MAINLY MVFR. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 182350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ARND 02Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL SHRA. FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN BEGINNING ARND 18Z. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT...COULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF SITE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
02Z AND THEN BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z MAINLY MVFR. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 182350
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING ARND 02Z. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TONIGHT WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL SHRA. FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN BEGINNING ARND 18Z. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT...COULD SEE SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TAF SITE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
02Z AND THEN BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z MAINLY MVFR. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 182117
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HSV AND MSL TERMINALS
UNTIL AROUND THE 02Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL. EXPECT SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS BELOW 2KFT RANGE BY 04Z-
05Z AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME AT HSV AND MSL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z AT MSL AND 15Z AT
HSV INTO THE VFR RANGE INVOLVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  77  61  70 / 100  50  60  30
SHOALS        64  78  60  68 / 100  40  60  30
VINEMONT      64  77  61  70 / 100  50  60  30
FAYETTEVILLE  63  75  59  67 / 100  60  60  40
ALBERTVILLE   63  76  60  71 / 100  60  60  30
FORT PAYNE    62  75  60  70 / 100  60  60  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 182117
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH WITH A CAP AROUND 500MB AND LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK FORCING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NE ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE S
TX/NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY MOIST ADIABATIC OVERNIGHT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE FORCING FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LOOMING OVER THE PLAINS STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED
OFF OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. BETTER FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES
THROUGH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

STUMPF

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COOL AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF APRIL IS IN STORE FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. LONG TERM MODELS ARE VERY CONVERGENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE ROBUST UPPER LOW WHICH ADVECTS MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 65 DEGREES. ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY EVEN BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES PUSHING EAST BELOW
THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. /NORMAL HIGHS ~75
AND NORMAL LOWS ~ 53/.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY (DUE TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO)
NEAR TENNESSEE BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED
AND WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO JUST KEEPING THE
40 POP THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HSV AND MSL TERMINALS
UNTIL AROUND THE 02Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL. EXPECT SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS BELOW 2KFT RANGE BY 04Z-
05Z AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME AT HSV AND MSL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z AT MSL AND 15Z AT
HSV INTO THE VFR RANGE INVOLVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  77  61  70 / 100  50  60  30
SHOALS        64  78  60  68 / 100  40  60  30
VINEMONT      64  77  61  70 / 100  50  60  30
FAYETTEVILLE  63  75  59  67 / 100  60  60  40
ALBERTVILLE   63  76  60  71 / 100  60  60  30
FORT PAYNE    62  75  60  70 / 100  60  60  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181721 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TODAY`S WEATHER STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
TN/AL LINE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT...SO PULLED FOG FROM MORNING PERIOD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN/AL LINE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
PUSH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MS INTO NW AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS THE WEST PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12000 FEET. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
BIT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HSV AND MSL TERMINALS
UNTIL AROUND THE 02Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL. EXPECT SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS BELOW 2KFT RANGE BY 04Z-
05Z AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME AT HSV AND MSL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z AT MSL AND 15Z AT
HSV INTO THE VFR RANGE INVOLVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181721 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TODAY`S WEATHER STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
TN/AL LINE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT...SO PULLED FOG FROM MORNING PERIOD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN/AL LINE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
PUSH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MS INTO NW AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS THE WEST PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12000 FEET. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
BIT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HSV AND MSL TERMINALS
UNTIL AROUND THE 02Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL. EXPECT SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS BELOW 2KFT RANGE BY 04Z-
05Z AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME AT HSV AND MSL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z AT MSL AND 15Z AT
HSV INTO THE VFR RANGE INVOLVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181721 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TODAY`S WEATHER STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
TN/AL LINE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT...SO PULLED FOG FROM MORNING PERIOD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN/AL LINE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
PUSH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MS INTO NW AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS THE WEST PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12000 FEET. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
BIT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HSV AND MSL TERMINALS
UNTIL AROUND THE 02Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH
HSV AND MSL. EXPECT SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS BELOW 2KFT RANGE BY 04Z-
05Z AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 09Z-10Z TIME FRAME AT HSV AND MSL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z AT MSL AND 15Z AT
HSV INTO THE VFR RANGE INVOLVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181532 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...TO REMOVE FOG AND RAISE POPS AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TODAY`S WEATHER STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
TN/AL LINE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT...SO PULLED FOG FROM MORNING PERIOD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN/AL LINE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
PUSH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MS INTO NW AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS THE WEST PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12000 FEET. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
BIT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...FOG IS LIFTING QUICKLY AT KHSV AND KMSL...THOUGH VIS
AND CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU 12-1230Z. EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...BUT VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 18-19Z. CEILINGS
WILL FALL AGAIN BEGINNING 01-02Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 08-09Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-15KT. TSRA
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT
PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME RANGE...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181532 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...TO REMOVE FOG AND RAISE POPS AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TODAY`S WEATHER STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
TN/AL LINE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT...SO PULLED FOG FROM MORNING PERIOD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN/AL LINE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
PUSH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MS INTO NW AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS THE WEST PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12000 FEET. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
BIT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...FOG IS LIFTING QUICKLY AT KHSV AND KMSL...THOUGH VIS
AND CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU 12-1230Z. EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...BUT VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 18-19Z. CEILINGS
WILL FALL AGAIN BEGINNING 01-02Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 08-09Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-15KT. TSRA
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT
PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME RANGE...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181532 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1032 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...TO REMOVE FOG AND RAISE POPS AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN TODAY`S WEATHER STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
TN/AL LINE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT...SO PULLED FOG FROM MORNING PERIOD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN/AL LINE AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
PUSH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MS INTO NW AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AS THE WEST PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT OCCUR. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12000 FEET. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
BIT WHERE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...FOG IS LIFTING QUICKLY AT KHSV AND KMSL...THOUGH VIS
AND CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU 12-1230Z. EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...BUT VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 18-19Z. CEILINGS
WILL FALL AGAIN BEGINNING 01-02Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 08-09Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-15KT. TSRA
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT
PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME RANGE...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...FOG IS LIFTING QUICKLY AT KHSV AND KMSL...THOUGH VIS
AND CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU 12-1230Z. EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...BUT VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 18-19Z. CEILINGS
WILL FALL AGAIN BEGINNING 01-02Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 08-09Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-15KT. TSRA
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT
PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME RANGE...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...FOG IS LIFTING QUICKLY AT KHSV AND KMSL...THOUGH VIS
AND CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU 12-1230Z. EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...BUT VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 18-19Z. CEILINGS
WILL FALL AGAIN BEGINNING 01-02Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 08-09Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-15KT. TSRA
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT
PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME RANGE...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181146 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...FOG IS LIFTING QUICKLY AT KHSV AND KMSL...THOUGH VIS
AND CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU 12-1230Z. EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT TO MVFR BY 13Z...BUT VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 18-19Z. CEILINGS
WILL FALL AGAIN BEGINNING 01-02Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 08-09Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-15KT. TSRA
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT
PINPOINT A PARTICULAR TIME RANGE...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF
05Z. TAFS FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM
AND VV001 WITH PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING
CIRRUS FROM STORMS ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO FROM OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE
TAF...MVFR AND IFR WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE
IN PERIOD...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  64  80  59 /  20 100  50  50
SHOALS        77  63  81  58 /  30 100  30  40
VINEMONT      75  63  80  59 /  30 100  40  40
FAYETTEVILLE  75  62  78  58 /  20 100  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   74  62  78  58 /  30 100  60  40
FORT PAYNE    74  62  77  59 /  20 100  80  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF
05Z. TAFS FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM
AND VV001 WITH PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING
CIRRUS FROM STORMS ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO FROM OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE
TAF...MVFR AND IFR WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE
IN PERIOD...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  64  80  59 /  20 100  50  50
SHOALS        77  63  81  58 /  30 100  30  40
VINEMONT      75  63  80  59 /  30 100  40  40
FAYETTEVILLE  75  62  78  58 /  20 100  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   74  62  78  58 /  30 100  60  40
FORT PAYNE    74  62  77  59 /  20 100  80  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500-MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A SHORT WAVELENGTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN BEING AREAS OF MORNING FOG -- SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER INTO A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BY 15Z.
MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...A RETURN TO STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN
THE PERIOD. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG REMNANTS OF BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY TONIGHT...THE COLORADO UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD -- ENCOMPASSING
NEARLY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06-12Z ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID 60S. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER EVENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STORMS. AS SSWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT...0-3 KM SRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH RAISES THE
THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THUS...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW...A
BRIEF TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND ENDING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 12-15Z.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE
LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. AS CLOUDS CLEAR IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP...VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AIDED BY A GUSTY SW WIND.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING 1000-2000
J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING AROUND MIDDAY -- DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND THUS EXPECT WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OF INITIAL SYSTEM.
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. MID- LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AS WELL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40-45 KNOT RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. CLOUDS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNTIL
TRUE COLD FRONT CLEARS REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BENIGN ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONES WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME...COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE
PLAINS BY END OF WEEK...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF
05Z. TAFS FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM
AND VV001 WITH PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING
CIRRUS FROM STORMS ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO FROM OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH VFR WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE
TAF...MVFR AND IFR WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE
IN PERIOD...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  64  80  59 /  20 100  50  50
SHOALS        77  63  81  58 /  30 100  30  40
VINEMONT      75  63  80  59 /  30 100  40  40
FAYETTEVILLE  75  62  78  58 /  20 100  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   74  62  78  58 /  30 100  60  40
FORT PAYNE    74  62  77  59 /  20 100  80  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180535 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF 05Z. TAFS FOR
BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM AND VV001 WITH
PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING CIRRUS FROM STORMS
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FROM
OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR
WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE TAF...MVFR AND IFR
WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD...BUT
HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180535 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF 05Z. TAFS FOR
BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM AND VV001 WITH
PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING CIRRUS FROM STORMS
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FROM
OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR
WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE TAF...MVFR AND IFR
WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD...BUT
HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180535 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF 05Z. TAFS FOR
BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM AND VV001 WITH
PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING CIRRUS FROM STORMS
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FROM
OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR
WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE TAF...MVFR AND IFR
WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD...BUT
HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180535 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
ALREADY DEALING WITH FOG ISSUES AT KHSV AND KMSL AS OF 05Z. TAFS FOR
BOTH SITES WILL BE PESSIMISTIC INDICATING TEMPO 1/4SM AND VV001 WITH
PREVAILING HIGHER CATEGORIES. HOWEVER...INCOMING CIRRUS FROM STORMS
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST COULD KEEP THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FROM
OCCURRING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VFR
WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
MORE MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA SAT EVENING. LATE IN THE TAF...MVFR AND IFR
WX SHOULD INCREASE. THERE COULD BE CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD...BUT
HELD OFF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY THIS ISSUANCE.

BCC/RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FILTERING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE E HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCT...WITH
VFR CONDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDS THOUGH ARE ONLY XPCTED FOR A FEW
HRS...AS PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS RETURN...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING WINDS AT
THE SFC COUPLED WITH A SATURATED GROUND. CIGS/VIS MAY LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE OVERALL CONDS
RETURN CLOSER TO VFR CAT AFTER 13Z SAT.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY
SUNSHINE, HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW
BECOMES SELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU
850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
AND LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR BECOME
MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS OVER
THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FILTERING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE E HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCT...WITH
VFR CONDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDS THOUGH ARE ONLY XPCTED FOR A FEW
HRS...AS PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS RETURN...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING WINDS AT
THE SFC COUPLED WITH A SATURATED GROUND. CIGS/VIS MAY LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE OVERALL CONDS
RETURN CLOSER TO VFR CAT AFTER 13Z SAT.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY
SUNSHINE, HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW
BECOMES SELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU
850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
AND LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR BECOME
MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS OVER
THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY HAD
FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AND/OR HAD DISSIPATED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE DEPARTURE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO END THIS EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION.
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE ON-GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD AFTER 18/0300Z OR
10 PM CDT DRY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
MORE CLOUDS THAN SKY WILL BE PRESENT...HAVE KEPT THE FOG AS PATCHY AS
OPPOSED TO AREAS OR WIDESPREAD. A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND UNDER LESS CLOUDS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN
TRYING TO FORECAST THE EXACT WHEN/WHERE...AND THE FACT THAT LESS FOG
USUALLY OCCURS IN THE SPRING...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. DID HOWEVER MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOUD
COVER.

NEW FORECASTS REFLECTING NO RAIN AND THE OTHER TWEAKS WILL BE
FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FILTERING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE E HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCT...WITH
VFR CONDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDS THOUGH ARE ONLY XPCTED FOR A FEW
HRS...AS PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS RETURN...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING WINDS AT
THE SFC COUPLED WITH A SATURATED GROUND. CIGS/VIS MAY LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE OVERALL CONDS
RETURN CLOSER TO VFR CAT AFTER 13Z SAT.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY
SUNSHINE, HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW
BECOMES SELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU
850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
AND LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR BECOME
MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS OVER
THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 172331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY
SUNSHINE, HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW
BECOMES SELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU
850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
AND LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR BECOME
MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS OVER
THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FILTERING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE E HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCT...WITH
VFR CONDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDS THOUGH ARE ONLY XPCTED FOR A FEW
HRS...AS PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS RETURN...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING WINDS AT
THE SFC COUPLED WITH A SATURATED GROUND. CIGS/VIS MAY LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE OVERALL CONDS
RETURN CLOSER TO VFR CAT AFTER 13Z SAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 172331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY
SUNSHINE, HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW
BECOMES SELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU
850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
AND LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR BECOME
MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS OVER
THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FILTERING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE E HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCT...WITH
VFR CONDS DEVELOPING. VFR CONDS THOUGH ARE ONLY XPCTED FOR A FEW
HRS...AS PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS RETURN...GIVEN THE DIMINISHING WINDS AT
THE SFC COUPLED WITH A SATURATED GROUND. CIGS/VIS MAY LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE OVERALL CONDS
RETURN CLOSER TO VFR CAT AFTER 13Z SAT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE,
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU 850 MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR
BECOME MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6-7 HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SHRA MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS (LIFR) BTWN 23Z-01Z AT KMSL AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS NW AL. A BREAK TO VFR CIGS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AFTER
00Z-03Z BUT MFVR VIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF FOG FORMATION BTWN
00Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  76  66  78 /  20  30 100  90
SHOALS        59  77  65  79 /  20  30 100  80
VINEMONT      59  76  65  78 /  20  40 100  90
FAYETTEVILLE  58  77  65  77 /  20  30 100  90
ALBERTVILLE   59  77  65  77 /  20  40 100  90
FORT PAYNE    58  78  64  76 /  20  30 100  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171902
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM -RA CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS RIVER. THUS FAR, NO
LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN OUR AREA WITH UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO
AREAS SW OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN CENTRAL MS INTO SRN AL. DRY AIR IN
THIS AREA IS ALSO AIDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM, TS APPEAR TO BE
A VERY LOW THREAT, SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EVENING FORECAST AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST LIFT EXITS BY 00Z, BUT WE`LL HAVE
LINGERING -RA/SHRA MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER NERLY FLOW
IN MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY SET UP A PRETTY DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN DROP OFF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
06-12Z.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE,
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS. SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING THRU 850 MB.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP INITIALLY THRU EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE CO LOW FINALLY EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY, DIVERGENT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE UVVS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE TN
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED (INITIALLY ELEVATED) TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE LLJ OF 40-50KT INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE NAM SIGNALS A DEFINED SFC-PRESSURE WAVE (POSSIBLE
QLCS) FROM 09-12Z WHICH MAY BE SFC-BASED. 2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
BE INCREASING TO 30-35KT ALONG THIS LINE, SO WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THE
QLCS/TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY AND WARM ON SUNDAY. THE
ATMO MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT TSRA
REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS (AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN). THE BETTER CHC WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL A STRONG WAVE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE INITIALLY LINEAR
BECOME MUCH MORE STRONGLY CURVED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE LLJ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

A WELCOME DRY PERIOD FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A CP HIGH DROPS
THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE WRT HANDLING OF THE WNWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
HAS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGE
POSITION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL STAY WITH THE SUGGESTED
MODEL BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. BUT
THIS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6-7 HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SHRA MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS (LIFR) BTWN 23Z-01Z AT KMSL AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS NW AL. A BREAK TO VFR CIGS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AFTER
00Z-03Z BUT MFVR VIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF FOG FORMATION BTWN
00Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  76  66  78 /  20  30 100  90
SHOALS        59  77  65  79 /  20  30 100  80
VINEMONT      59  76  65  78 /  20  40 100  90
FAYETTEVILLE  58  77  65  77 /  20  30 100  90
ALBERTVILLE   59  77  65  77 /  20  40 100  90
FORT PAYNE    58  78  64  76 /  20  30 100  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171801 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT TO
WORK WITH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE CAUSING THE SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUN CWA TO DIVERGE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THE WEDGE FRONT MADE
IT ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY MAKING IT TO MS...BUT WILL DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THUS THERE WILL NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT LIKE YESTERDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND INCREASED POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONGOING BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ARE MOVING
SLOW...IT WILL MAKE IT HERE MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...CAPE VALUES
GET UP TO 500 J/KG AND THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND PWATS AT 1.5 INCHES WILL MONITOR ANY SENSITIVE
RIVERS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6-7 HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SHRA MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS (LIFR) BTWN 23Z-01Z AT KMSL AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS NW AL. A BREAK TO VFR CIGS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AFTER
00Z-03Z BUT MFVR VIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF FOG FORMATION BTWN
00Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171801 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT TO
WORK WITH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE CAUSING THE SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUN CWA TO DIVERGE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THE WEDGE FRONT MADE
IT ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY MAKING IT TO MS...BUT WILL DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THUS THERE WILL NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT LIKE YESTERDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND INCREASED POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONGOING BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ARE MOVING
SLOW...IT WILL MAKE IT HERE MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...CAPE VALUES
GET UP TO 500 J/KG AND THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND PWATS AT 1.5 INCHES WILL MONITOR ANY SENSITIVE
RIVERS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6-7 HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SHRA MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS (LIFR) BTWN 23Z-01Z AT KMSL AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS NW AL. A BREAK TO VFR CIGS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AFTER
00Z-03Z BUT MFVR VIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF FOG FORMATION BTWN
00Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171801 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT TO
WORK WITH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE CAUSING THE SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUN CWA TO DIVERGE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THE WEDGE FRONT MADE
IT ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY MAKING IT TO MS...BUT WILL DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THUS THERE WILL NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT LIKE YESTERDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND INCREASED POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONGOING BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ARE MOVING
SLOW...IT WILL MAKE IT HERE MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...CAPE VALUES
GET UP TO 500 J/KG AND THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND PWATS AT 1.5 INCHES WILL MONITOR ANY SENSITIVE
RIVERS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6-7 HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SHRA MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS (LIFR) BTWN 23Z-01Z AT KMSL AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS NW AL. A BREAK TO VFR CIGS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AFTER
00Z-03Z BUT MFVR VIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF FOG FORMATION BTWN
00Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171801 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT TO
WORK WITH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE CAUSING THE SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUN CWA TO DIVERGE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THE WEDGE FRONT MADE
IT ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY MAKING IT TO MS...BUT WILL DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THUS THERE WILL NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT LIKE YESTERDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND INCREASED POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONGOING BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ARE MOVING
SLOW...IT WILL MAKE IT HERE MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...CAPE VALUES
GET UP TO 500 J/KG AND THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND PWATS AT 1.5 INCHES WILL MONITOR ANY SENSITIVE
RIVERS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6-7 HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SHRA MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS (LIFR) BTWN 23Z-01Z AT KMSL AS A LARGE AREA OF SHRA GRADUALLY
MOVES ACROSS NW AL. A BREAK TO VFR CIGS IS THEN ANTICIPATED AFTER
00Z-03Z BUT MFVR VIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF FOG FORMATION BTWN
00Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AFTER 13Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171555 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT TO
WORK WITH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE CAUSING THE SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUN CWA TO DIVERGE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THE WEDGE FRONT MADE
IT ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY MAKING IT TO MS...BUT WILL DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THUS THERE WILL NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT LIKE YESTERDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND INCREASED POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONGOING BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ARE MOVING
SLOW...IT WILL MAKE IT HERE MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...CAPE VALUES
GET UP TO 500 J/KG AND THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND PWATS AT 1.5 INCHES WILL MONITOR ANY SENSITIVE
RIVERS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARND 500 FT AND PATCHY MVFR
VSBY IN BR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THRU 17/15Z...ALONG WITH IFR VSBY
AT MSL. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE
17/16Z-18/02Z PERIOD...BUT THREAT FOR IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB ATTM. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
18/00Z WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LGT/VRBL WINDS TO RESULT IN
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BR/FG EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN PERIOD HAVE KEPT VSBY IN THE MVFR RANGE /3-5
SM/.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171555 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL
FINALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MAIN FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT TO
WORK WITH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE CAUSING THE SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE
HUN CWA TO DIVERGE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THE WEDGE FRONT MADE
IT ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY MAKING IT TO MS...BUT WILL DIFFUSE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THUS THERE WILL NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP/DEWPOINT
GRADIENT LIKE YESTERDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND INCREASED POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONGOING BATCHES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ARE MOVING
SLOW...IT WILL MAKE IT HERE MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...CAPE VALUES
GET UP TO 500 J/KG AND THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND AND PWATS AT 1.5 INCHES WILL MONITOR ANY SENSITIVE
RIVERS/STREAMS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARND 500 FT AND PATCHY MVFR
VSBY IN BR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THRU 17/15Z...ALONG WITH IFR VSBY
AT MSL. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE
17/16Z-18/02Z PERIOD...BUT THREAT FOR IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB ATTM. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
18/00Z WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LGT/VRBL WINDS TO RESULT IN
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BR/FG EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN PERIOD HAVE KEPT VSBY IN THE MVFR RANGE /3-5
SM/.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171205
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARND 500 FT AND PATCHY MVFR
VSBY IN BR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THRU 17/15Z...ALONG WITH IFR VSBY
AT MSL. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE
17/16Z-18/02Z PERIOD...BUT THREAT FOR IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB ATTM. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
18/00Z WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LGT/VRBL WINDS TO RESULT IN
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BR/FG EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN PERIOD HAVE KEPT VSBY IN THE MVFR RANGE /3-5
SM/.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171205
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARND 500 FT AND PATCHY MVFR
VSBY IN BR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THRU 17/15Z...ALONG WITH IFR VSBY
AT MSL. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE
17/16Z-18/02Z PERIOD...BUT THREAT FOR IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB ATTM. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
18/00Z WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LGT/VRBL WINDS TO RESULT IN
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BR/FG EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN PERIOD HAVE KEPT VSBY IN THE MVFR RANGE /3-5
SM/.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171205
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARND 500 FT AND PATCHY MVFR
VSBY IN BR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THRU 17/15Z...ALONG WITH IFR VSBY
AT MSL. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE
17/16Z-18/02Z PERIOD...BUT THREAT FOR IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB ATTM. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
18/00Z WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LGT/VRBL WINDS TO RESULT IN
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BR/FG EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN PERIOD HAVE KEPT VSBY IN THE MVFR RANGE /3-5
SM/.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171205
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
705 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARND 500 FT AND PATCHY MVFR
VSBY IN BR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THRU 17/15Z...ALONG WITH IFR VSBY
AT MSL. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING... WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE
17/16Z-18/02Z PERIOD...BUT THREAT FOR IMPACT AT EITHER TERMINAL IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS/CB ATTM. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER
18/00Z WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LGT/VRBL WINDS TO RESULT IN
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BR/FG EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN PERIOD HAVE KEPT VSBY IN THE MVFR RANGE /3-5
SM/.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170836
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  60  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
SHOALS        75  59  79  64 /  40  20  30  90
VINEMONT      73  60  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
FAYETTEVILLE  72  57  77  60 /  40  20  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   71  59  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    70  57  77  61 /  40  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170836
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  60  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
SHOALS        75  59  79  64 /  40  20  30  90
VINEMONT      73  60  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
FAYETTEVILLE  72  57  77  60 /  40  20  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   71  59  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    70  57  77  61 /  40  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170836
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S...ALL UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR AFFECTS OF WEDGING ACROSS NE AL ATTM WITH LOW 50
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE WEDGE AFFECT SHOULD BE
GONE BY THE AFTN. THE COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS
THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. WEAK RIDGING TONIGHT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA DRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK SHEAR/WIND FLOW AND LOW CAPES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...IF NAM IS CORRECT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH PCPN FOR THE
MRNG/AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AGAIN THANKS TO WEAK
RIDGING. HOWEVER THE CHC OF PCPN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MRNG AS THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO OPEN UP BY SUNDAY. 8H WINDS DO INCREASE (40-50KTS) AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD
LIKELY BE THE BEST CHC OF SOME STRONG STORMS. ATTM THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHC OF ANY SVR WX WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MRNG WITH SHRA/TSRA
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTN ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MRNG LOWS IN MID/UPPER 40S...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROF SHOWN BY BOTH ECMWF/GFS WILL
BRING A CHC OF MORE SHRA/TSRA FOR THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER AFTER
THURSDAY THESE TWO MODELS STARTS TO DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WX NEXT
WEEKEND.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  60  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
SHOALS        75  59  79  64 /  40  20  30  90
VINEMONT      73  60  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
FAYETTEVILLE  72  57  77  60 /  40  20  30  90
ALBERTVILLE   71  59  78  63 /  40  20  30  90
FORT PAYNE    70  57  77  61 /  40  20  30  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170526 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...RESTRICTIVE FLYING CONDS ARE XPCTED WELL INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...WITH LOW CIGS OR IFR/MVFR CONDS PREVAILING AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS. WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR/MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD AS WELL. VFR CONDS MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS...AS CLOUD BASES CLIMB CLOSER TO 4-5K FT.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170140 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS...ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS...FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SE FETCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS PM. CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR FOG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS VALUES TOO. HAVE ENDED
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM. WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERE
MIXING...VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170140 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS...ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS...FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SE FETCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS PM. CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR FOG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS VALUES TOO. HAVE ENDED
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM. WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERE
MIXING...VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170140 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
840 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS...ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS...FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS DEFINITELY BEEN WORKED OVER BY THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIP DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL AL. LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MOVE N OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND THIS TREND IS NOT XPCTED TO
CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
THE PROB THOUGH HAS DECREASED...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCAL/MESO ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING A WEDGE FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY PUSHING SWWD THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. LIKEWISE...RAIN CHANCES/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE THREAT FOR ANY
LINGERING TSTMS MAY ONLY EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS. PATCHY FOG
WAS ALSO ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL LACK OF PRECIP AND A FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
WERE ALREADY AT/NEAR THEIR FORECASTED MINS. SOME PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER/SE FETCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS THOUGH MAY LIMIT TEMP TRENDS
FROM FALLING MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SE FETCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS PM. CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR FOG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS VALUES TOO. HAVE ENDED
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM. WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERE
MIXING...VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 162341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 221 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW
CHURNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW, THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE OF FL N/NW INTO SRN GA AND CENTRAL AL. A
WEDGE FRONT/MODIFIED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WAS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA WITH GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO UPPER 60S IN THE SHOALS.

A LARGE COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES WERE NOTED IN A SWATH FROM NORTHERN
MORGAN THROUGH MADISON INTO JACKSON COUNTIES WHERE PRIMARILY URBAN
FLOODING WAS NOTED. AT LATEST GLANCE, SOME OF THE URBAN BASINS
IN/NEAR HUNTSVILLE WERE STILL NEAR BANKFULL WITH A FEW MAINSTEM
LOCATIONS NEAR ACTION STAGE. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT/TERRAIN
INTERACTION ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/LOOKOUT MTN REGIONS AND TO
OUR SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN CULLMAN COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR
WHERE SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED.

SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS WEAK/TRANSIENT S/W RIDGING AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VLY. MEANWHILE, THE OPNL NAM HAS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CLOSED OFF BETWEEN H7-H5) DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU WOULD EXPECT THE NAM SOLN IS MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WHILE THE GFS (AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF) ARE DRIER.
FOR CONTINUITY TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE DRIER SOLN.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL SHIFT E/NE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...POPS WERE SCALED BACK
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. THE INITAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE ACTUAL "COLD" FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EARLY MONDAY. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE LONGER RANGES, SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH GENERAL W/NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO VARY
QUITE A BIT BEYOND THAT RANGE WITH THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THAT
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND`S
WEATHER. STAY TUNED.

15+12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SE FETCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS PM. CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR FOG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS VALUES TOO. HAVE ENDED
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM. WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERE
MIXING...VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 162341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 221 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW
CHURNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW, THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE OF FL N/NW INTO SRN GA AND CENTRAL AL. A
WEDGE FRONT/MODIFIED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WAS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA WITH GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO UPPER 60S IN THE SHOALS.

A LARGE COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES WERE NOTED IN A SWATH FROM NORTHERN
MORGAN THROUGH MADISON INTO JACKSON COUNTIES WHERE PRIMARILY URBAN
FLOODING WAS NOTED. AT LATEST GLANCE, SOME OF THE URBAN BASINS
IN/NEAR HUNTSVILLE WERE STILL NEAR BANKFULL WITH A FEW MAINSTEM
LOCATIONS NEAR ACTION STAGE. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT/TERRAIN
INTERACTION ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/LOOKOUT MTN REGIONS AND TO
OUR SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN CULLMAN COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR
WHERE SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED.

SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS WEAK/TRANSIENT S/W RIDGING AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VLY. MEANWHILE, THE OPNL NAM HAS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CLOSED OFF BETWEEN H7-H5) DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU WOULD EXPECT THE NAM SOLN IS MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WHILE THE GFS (AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF) ARE DRIER.
FOR CONTINUITY TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE DRIER SOLN.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL SHIFT E/NE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...POPS WERE SCALED BACK
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. THE INITAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE ACTUAL "COLD" FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EARLY MONDAY. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE LONGER RANGES, SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH GENERAL W/NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO VARY
QUITE A BIT BEYOND THAT RANGE WITH THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THAT
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND`S
WEATHER. STAY TUNED.

15+12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SE FETCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS PM. CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CIGS...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR FOG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS VALUES TOO. HAVE ENDED
A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK FRI...WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THEM. WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERE
MIXING...VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161921
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW
CHURNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW, THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE OF FL N/NW INTO SRN GA AND CENTRAL AL. A
WEDGE FRONT/MODIFIED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WAS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA WITH GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO UPPER 60S IN THE SHOALS.

A LARGE COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES WERE NOTED IN A SWATH FROM NORTHERN
MORGAN THROUGH MADISON INTO JACKSON COUNTIES WHERE PRIMARILY URBAN
FLOODING WAS NOTED. AT LATEST GLANCE, SOME OF THE URBAN BASINS
IN/NEAR HUNTSVILLE WERE STILL NEAR BANKFULL WITH A FEW MAINSTEM
LOCATIONS NEAR ACTION STAGE. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT/TERRAIN
INTERACTION ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/LOOKOUT MTN REGIONS AND TO
OUR SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN CULLMAN COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR
WHERE SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED.

SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS WEAK/TRANSIENT S/W RIDGING AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VLY. MEANWHILE, THE OPNL NAM HAS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CLOSED OFF BETWEEN H7-H5) DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU WOULD EXPECT THE NAM SOLN IS MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WHILE THE GFS (AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF) ARE DRIER.
FOR CONTINUITY TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE DRIER SOLN.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL SHIFT E/NE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...POPS WERE SCALED BACK
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. THE INITAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE ACTUAL "COLD" FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EARLY MONDAY. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE LONGER RANGES, SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH GENERAL W/NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO VARY
QUITE A BIT BEYOND THAT RANGE WITH THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THAT
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND`S
WEATHER. STAY TUNED.

15+12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THOUGH MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT KHSV...IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT KHSV. ADDITIONAL DROPS IN THE CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHRA. IT IS CHALLENGING TO TIME
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA, BUT LOOKS TO BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-18Z BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO CHALLENGING AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BETWEEN KHSV AND KMSL. SO, A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM ESE TO SE WILL OCCUR AT KHSV WHILE SE TO S IS EXPECTED
AT KMSL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  75  61  77 /  40  50  20  70
SHOALS        62  76  61  76 /  40  50  20  70
VINEMONT      61  74  61  76 /  50  50  20  70
FAYETTEVILLE  59  73  60  77 /  40  50  20  60
ALBERTVILLE   58  73  60  77 /  50  50  20  60
FORT PAYNE    57  73  59  77 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161921
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW
CHURNING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW, THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE OF FL N/NW INTO SRN GA AND CENTRAL AL. A
WEDGE FRONT/MODIFIED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WAS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA WITH GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO UPPER 60S IN THE SHOALS.

A LARGE COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS AIDED BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES WERE NOTED IN A SWATH FROM NORTHERN
MORGAN THROUGH MADISON INTO JACKSON COUNTIES WHERE PRIMARILY URBAN
FLOODING WAS NOTED. AT LATEST GLANCE, SOME OF THE URBAN BASINS
IN/NEAR HUNTSVILLE WERE STILL NEAR BANKFULL WITH A FEW MAINSTEM
LOCATIONS NEAR ACTION STAGE. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ASCENT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT/TERRAIN
INTERACTION ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/LOOKOUT MTN REGIONS AND TO
OUR SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN CULLMAN COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR
WHERE SOME LOW LYING AND STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN NOTED.

SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS WEAK/TRANSIENT S/W RIDGING AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VLY. MEANWHILE, THE OPNL NAM HAS A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CLOSED OFF BETWEEN H7-H5) DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS YOU WOULD EXPECT THE NAM SOLN IS MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AND WET WHILE THE GFS (AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF) ARE DRIER.
FOR CONTINUITY TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE DRIER SOLN.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL SHIFT E/NE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...POPS WERE SCALED BACK
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. THE INITAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE ACTUAL "COLD" FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EARLY MONDAY. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE LONGER RANGES, SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH GENERAL W/NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO VARY
QUITE A BIT BEYOND THAT RANGE WITH THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THAT
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND`S
WEATHER. STAY TUNED.

15+12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THOUGH MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT KHSV...IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT KHSV. ADDITIONAL DROPS IN THE CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHRA. IT IS CHALLENGING TO TIME
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA, BUT LOOKS TO BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-18Z BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO CHALLENGING AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BETWEEN KHSV AND KMSL. SO, A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM ESE TO SE WILL OCCUR AT KHSV WHILE SE TO S IS EXPECTED
AT KMSL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  75  61  77 /  40  50  20  70
SHOALS        62  76  61  76 /  40  50  20  70
VINEMONT      61  74  61  76 /  50  50  20  70
FAYETTEVILLE  59  73  60  77 /  40  50  20  60
ALBERTVILLE   58  73  60  77 /  50  50  20  60
FORT PAYNE    57  73  59  77 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161749 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THOUGH MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT KHSV...IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT KHSV. ADDITIONAL DROPS IN THE CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHRA. IT IS CHALLENGING TO TIME
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA, BUT LOOKS TO BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-18Z BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO CHALLENGING AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BETWEEN KHSV AND KMSL. SO, A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM ESE TO SE WILL OCCUR AT KHSV WHILE SE TO S IS EXPECTED
AT KMSL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161749 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THOUGH MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT KHSV...IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT KHSV. ADDITIONAL DROPS IN THE CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHRA. IT IS CHALLENGING TO TIME
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA, BUT LOOKS TO BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-18Z BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO CHALLENGING AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BETWEEN KHSV AND KMSL. SO, A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM ESE TO SE WILL OCCUR AT KHSV WHILE SE TO S IS EXPECTED
AT KMSL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161749 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THOUGH MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT KHSV...IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT KHSV. ADDITIONAL DROPS IN THE CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHRA. IT IS CHALLENGING TO TIME
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA, BUT LOOKS TO BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-18Z BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO CHALLENGING AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BETWEEN KHSV AND KMSL. SO, A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM ESE TO SE WILL OCCUR AT KHSV WHILE SE TO S IS EXPECTED
AT KMSL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161749 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE N AL/S MIDDLE TN. THOUGH MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
PREVAIL AT KHSV...IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT KHSV. ADDITIONAL DROPS IN THE CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER SHRA. IT IS CHALLENGING TO TIME
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA, BUT LOOKS TO BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-18Z BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO CHALLENGING AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BETWEEN KHSV AND KMSL. SO, A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM ESE TO SE WILL OCCUR AT KHSV WHILE SE TO S IS EXPECTED
AT KMSL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161607 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161607 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161607 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161607 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS MORNING ARE FIRING OFF OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE
AL AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW.
CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF THE OBS IN THE CWA ARE EASTERLY IN NE AL
AND SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW AL. AT 850MB S/SW FLOW IS PRESENT PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE STORMS. PWATS ARE ABOVE AN INCH
TODAY...WITH THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 1.25 INCHES...AND SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WELL SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
WILL CAUSE RUNOFF TO RIVERS/STREAMS...WHICH MAY FURTHER ADD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER IN NE AL WHERE
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

A STRONG TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AS THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONT
LOCATION.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 161218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 161218
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
718 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH 16/15Z AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WWD. REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SAFELY TO THE EAST OF MSL/HSV BY 15Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONT
ACROSS NW ALABAMA THIS EVENING -- PERHAPS IMPACTING MSL -- WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PSBL REGION-WIDE BTWN 09-12Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH BOTH OF THESE EVENTS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH ATTM. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE TODAY...AND IFR RANGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160834
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTINGNORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  58  76  60 /  50  30  30  10
SHOALS        73  59  76  60 /  50  40  30  10
VINEMONT      70  58  73  60 /  50  40  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  69  57  73  59 /  50  30  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   69  55  72  58 /  50  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    66  55  72  58 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160834
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTINGNORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  58  76  60 /  50  30  30  10
SHOALS        73  59  76  60 /  50  40  30  10
VINEMONT      70  58  73  60 /  50  40  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  69  57  73  59 /  50  30  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   69  55  72  58 /  50  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    66  55  72  58 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160834
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTINGNORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  58  76  60 /  50  30  30  10
SHOALS        73  59  76  60 /  50  40  30  10
VINEMONT      70  58  73  60 /  50  40  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  69  57  73  59 /  50  30  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   69  55  72  58 /  50  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    66  55  72  58 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160834
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LOW WAS NESTLED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN...THROUGH ALABAMA NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE US 280 CORRIDOR. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS TN...HOWEVER...UNTIL
THE LAST HOUR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AS THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
ERODES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE
LIMITED BY THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTINGNORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  58  76  60 /  50  30  30  10
SHOALS        73  59  76  60 /  50  40  30  10
VINEMONT      70  58  73  60 /  50  40  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  69  57  73  59 /  50  30  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   69  55  72  58 /  50  40  30  10
FORT PAYNE    66  55  72  58 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/
TOUGH CALL ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LITTLE HAS BEEN SEEN THUS FAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL. STILL...INTERMEDIATE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS SOME ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS WRN TN...PERHAPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE SWD AS
THIS ENERGY DRIFTS TOWARD THE N/E. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER AREA OF
CONVECTION/ENERGY OVER SE MS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NEWD. EITHER ONE
YOU CONSIDER...SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA STAND AT LEAST A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THUS IT`S HARD TO COME OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES REMAINING FOR SRN MID TN
INTO N CNTRL/NW AL. CURRENT TEMPS RIGHT NOW PREDOM IN THE MID/UPPER
60S MAY ALSO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW.
WITH THIS SAID...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE XPCTED TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/
TOUGH CALL ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LITTLE HAS BEEN SEEN THUS FAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL. STILL...INTERMEDIATE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS SOME ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS WRN TN...PERHAPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE SWD AS
THIS ENERGY DRIFTS TOWARD THE N/E. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER AREA OF
CONVECTION/ENERGY OVER SE MS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NEWD. EITHER ONE
YOU CONSIDER...SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA STAND AT LEAST A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THUS IT`S HARD TO COME OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES REMAINING FOR SRN MID TN
INTO N CNTRL/NW AL. CURRENT TEMPS RIGHT NOW PREDOM IN THE MID/UPPER
60S MAY ALSO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW.
WITH THIS SAID...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE XPCTED TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 160511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/
TOUGH CALL ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LITTLE HAS BEEN SEEN THUS FAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL. STILL...INTERMEDIATE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS SOME ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS WRN TN...PERHAPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE SWD AS
THIS ENERGY DRIFTS TOWARD THE N/E. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER AREA OF
CONVECTION/ENERGY OVER SE MS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NEWD. EITHER ONE
YOU CONSIDER...SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA STAND AT LEAST A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THUS IT`S HARD TO COME OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES REMAINING FOR SRN MID TN
INTO N CNTRL/NW AL. CURRENT TEMPS RIGHT NOW PREDOM IN THE MID/UPPER
60S MAY ALSO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW.
WITH THIS SAID...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE XPCTED TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 160511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/
TOUGH CALL ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LITTLE HAS BEEN SEEN THUS FAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL. STILL...INTERMEDIATE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST IS SOME ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS WRN TN...PERHAPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE SWD AS
THIS ENERGY DRIFTS TOWARD THE N/E. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER AREA OF
CONVECTION/ENERGY OVER SE MS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NEWD. EITHER ONE
YOU CONSIDER...SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA STAND AT LEAST A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THUS IT`S HARD TO COME OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES REMAINING FOR SRN MID TN
INTO N CNTRL/NW AL. CURRENT TEMPS RIGHT NOW PREDOM IN THE MID/UPPER
60S MAY ALSO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW.
WITH THIS SAID...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE XPCTED TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS..VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
S/W. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING FROM EITHER THE W OR SW...MAY
THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HRS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
AIRPORTS ARE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THEN LOOKS
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE EVENING HRS. SFC WINDS ARE XPCTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SE...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PERIOD IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS MAY BE A
BIT MORE ERRATIC/GUSTY IN/NEAR ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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