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000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    36  51  33  52 /  70  10   0  20
SHOALS        36  50  31  55 /  70  10   0  10
VINEMONT      36  50  33  52 /  80  10   0  20
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  32  52 /  70  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   38  53  33  51 /  80  20   0  20
FORT PAYNE    38  54  34  51 /  80  20   0  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMSL TERMINAL
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE KHSV TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191614
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191614
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND ENDED UP
NUDGING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 191129 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 191129 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KHSV TERMINAL WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN ENTERING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190927
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190923
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE SWRN US. AHEAD OF
THIS TROF WAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS THAT WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TEMPS ATTM WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...MSL WAS THE WARM SPOT AT 41. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK...BUT STLT SHOWS
MORE LOW CLOUDS...NOW OVER NW AL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG BUT WILL MONITOR.

AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE CWA LATER TODAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTN. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
NW AL AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING...AS NOTED BY NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION RAIN.

THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY.
LOOK FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES BY
SATURDAY MRNG.

BY SATURDAY MRNG THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
I65...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN UNTIL
18Z. AFTER 18Z AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROF AND SFC LOW OVER THE GULF WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR NOW SINCE
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE SE OF THE TN VALLEY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES ARND 150 J/KG WITH
40KT 8H WINDS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THE 8H
WINDS/CAPES. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SHRA ONLY.

BEHIND THE CDFNT ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
POSSIBLE FLURRIES. ATTM DO NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP WITH THE FCST SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SCT RAIN...SINCE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER TEMPS NEAR 60 ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

THURSDAY...MAY BE THE BEST DAY TO SEE SOME SUN...AS DRY WX IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS (ARND 50).

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  36  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
SHOALS        46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
VINEMONT      46  37  51  37 /  20  70  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  44  35  49  35 /  10  70  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  37  51  39 /  20  70  20  10
FORT PAYNE    45  35  50  36 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190459 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST AGAIN THIS
EVENING, WITH THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA BLANKETED WITH LOW CLOUDS/OVERCAST
SKIES. A GLANCE AT THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVEN
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS
AN H5 DISTURBANCE OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY, TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ALREADY HAVING DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THIS HOUR. ALL MOS
GUIDANCE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR) SHOWS MORNING LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND WITH THE
ONGOING/EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, AM JUST NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THE HRRR WAS ADVERTISING (UPPER 30S NE/LOWER 40S SW). THIS
WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN THE NERN ZONES, AND TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN ZONES.

OTHER THAN THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT,
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190459 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1059 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST AGAIN THIS
EVENING, WITH THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA BLANKETED WITH LOW CLOUDS/OVERCAST
SKIES. A GLANCE AT THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVEN
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS
AN H5 DISTURBANCE OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY, TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ALREADY HAVING DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THIS HOUR. ALL MOS
GUIDANCE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR) SHOWS MORNING LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND WITH THE
ONGOING/EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, AM JUST NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THE HRRR WAS ADVERTISING (UPPER 30S NE/LOWER 40S SW). THIS
WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN THE NERN ZONES, AND TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN ZONES.

OTHER THAN THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT,
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WAS FORMALLY ADDED AT KMSL/00Z, AND KHSV/02Z,
LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 190230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST AGAIN THIS
EVENING, WITH THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA BLANKETED WITH LOW CLOUDS/OVERCAST
SKIES. A GLANCE AT THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVEN
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS
AN H5 DISTURBANCE OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY, TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ALREADY HAVING DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THIS HOUR. ALL MOS
GUIDANCE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR) SHOWS MORNING LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND WITH THE
ONGOING/EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, AM JUST NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THE HRRR WAS ADVERTISING (UPPER 30S NE/LOWER 40S SW). THIS
WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN THE NERN ZONES, AND TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN ZONES.

OTHER THAN THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT,
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 555 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CURRENT VFR CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT KMSL AFTER MID-
MORNING, WITH OVC CEILINGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 2500-3000FT DURING THIS
TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 190230 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
830 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORECAST AGAIN THIS
EVENING, WITH THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA BLANKETED WITH LOW CLOUDS/OVERCAST
SKIES. A GLANCE AT THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVEN
MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS
AN H5 DISTURBANCE OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY, TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ALREADY HAVING DIPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THIS HOUR. ALL MOS
GUIDANCE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR) SHOWS MORNING LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND WITH THE
ONGOING/EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, AM JUST NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THE HRRR WAS ADVERTISING (UPPER 30S NE/LOWER 40S SW). THIS
WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN THE NERN ZONES, AND TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SWRN ZONES.

OTHER THAN THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT,
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 555 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CURRENT VFR CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT KMSL AFTER MID-
MORNING, WITH OVC CEILINGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 2500-3000FT DURING THIS
TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 182355 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 318 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND PER THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR
RIGHT NEAR SUNSET BUT ARE REPLACED BY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE MAIN TRACK OF THE
LOW GOING ACROSS NORTH/MIDDLE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS PUT A BIG DENT IN
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY. WITH
ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED ON EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND WHERE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO TURN ANY PRECIP OVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CURRENT VFR CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT KMSL AFTER MID-
MORNING, WITH OVC CEILINGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 2500-3000FT DURING THIS
TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 182355 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 318 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND PER THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR
RIGHT NEAR SUNSET BUT ARE REPLACED BY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE MAIN TRACK OF THE
LOW GOING ACROSS NORTH/MIDDLE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS PUT A BIG DENT IN
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY. WITH
ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED ON EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND WHERE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO TURN ANY PRECIP OVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CURRENT VFR CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT KMSL AFTER MID-
MORNING, WITH OVC CEILINGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 2500-3000FT DURING THIS
TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 182118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND PER THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR
RIGHT NEAR SUNSET BUT ARE REPLACED BY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE MAIN TRACK OF THE
LOW GOING ACROSS NORTH/MIDDLE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS PUT A BIG DENT IN
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY. WITH
ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED ON EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND WHERE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO TURN ANY PRECIP OVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, THERE COULD BE SOME
EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECKS, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THUS FAR DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS TREND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
STATES. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING MVFR UNTIL THIS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  47  37  50 /  10  20  70  40
SHOALS        33  47  36  49 /  10  20  70  30
VINEMONT      32  46  37  50 /  10  20  70  40
FAYETTEVILLE  31  45  34  47 /  10  10  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   33  47  37  50 /  10  20  70  50
FORT PAYNE    30  47  34  50 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 182118
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND PER THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR
RIGHT NEAR SUNSET BUT ARE REPLACED BY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE MAIN TRACK OF THE
LOW GOING ACROSS NORTH/MIDDLE ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS PUT A BIG DENT IN
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TOTALS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SATURDAY. WITH
ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED
WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED ON EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND WHERE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO TURN ANY PRECIP OVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1055 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, THERE COULD BE SOME
EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECKS, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THUS FAR DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS TREND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
STATES. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING MVFR UNTIL THIS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  47  37  50 /  10  20  70  40
SHOALS        33  47  36  49 /  10  20  70  30
VINEMONT      32  46  37  50 /  10  20  70  40
FAYETTEVILLE  31  45  34  47 /  10  10  70  40
ALBERTVILLE   33  47  37  50 /  10  20  70  50
FORT PAYNE    30  47  34  50 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181655 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1055 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 941 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
PATCHES OF -RA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
A SHORTWAVE. A FEW LOCATIONS MEASURED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH,
BUT THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW
REPORTS OF PL OCCURRED BEFORE 12Z AND THE 12Z RAOB AT RSA INDICATED A
FAVORABLE WET BULB PROFILE. PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO A VERY
DRY 1000-850 MB LAYER. LOW LEVEL WARMING APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP ALL LIQUID AT THIS HOUR, SO HAVE REMOVED PL. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A 20 POP FOR -RA THRU THE DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING
THRU THE 40S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, THERE COULD BE SOME
EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECKS, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THUS FAR DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS TREND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
STATES. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING MVFR UNTIL THIS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181541 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE PL FROM THE MORNING FORECAST, BUT CARRY 20 POP FOR -RA THRU
THE AFTN. ALSO RAISED SKY COVERAGE FROM 70 TO NEAR 100 PCT FOR THE
DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF -RA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
A SHORTWAVE. A FEW LOCATIONS MEASURED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH,
BUT THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW
REPORTS OF PL OCCURRED BEFORE 12Z AND THE 12Z RAOB AT RSA INDICATED A
FAVORABLE WET BULB PROFILE. PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO A VERY
DRY 1000-850 MB LAYER. LOW LEVEL WARMING APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP ALL LIQUID AT THIS HOUR, SO HAVE REMOVED PL. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A 20 POP FOR -RA THRU THE DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING
THRU THE 40S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181541 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE PL FROM THE MORNING FORECAST, BUT CARRY 20 POP FOR -RA THRU
THE AFTN. ALSO RAISED SKY COVERAGE FROM 70 TO NEAR 100 PCT FOR THE
DAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF -RA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
A SHORTWAVE. A FEW LOCATIONS MEASURED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH,
BUT THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW
REPORTS OF PL OCCURRED BEFORE 12Z AND THE 12Z RAOB AT RSA INDICATED A
FAVORABLE WET BULB PROFILE. PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO A VERY
DRY 1000-850 MB LAYER. LOW LEVEL WARMING APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIP ALL LIQUID AT THIS HOUR, SO HAVE REMOVED PL. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A 20 POP FOR -RA THRU THE DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY RISING
THRU THE 40S.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181212
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
612 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET TO GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOT A REPORT OF LIGHT SLEET OVER CLOVERDALE AND ELKMONT. THERE MUST
BE JUST ENOUGH EVAP COOLING OCCURRING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SLEET MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS N OF THE TN RIVER. OTHERWISE NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY NOON.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 181212
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
612 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET TO GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOT A REPORT OF LIGHT SLEET OVER CLOVERDALE AND ELKMONT. THERE MUST
BE JUST ENOUGH EVAP COOLING OCCURRING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SLEET MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS N OF THE TN RIVER. OTHERWISE NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY NOON.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181132 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KS WAS PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF PCPN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS NOW
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE TN ZONES/NW AL.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FAIRLY DRY ATTM WITH CEILINGS
ARND 9000 FT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z. MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT AFTER 18Z THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ATTM WERE RANGING
FROM 34 AT FORT PAYNE TO 40 AT MSL. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND AFTER. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAINLY OVER OUR TN
ZONES THIS MRNG. OVERALL MODELS/RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE TN ZONES HAVING A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF PCPN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL END THE PCPN BY THIS
AFTN AND WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY AS WELL...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHC OF RAIN. TIMING OF PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MRNG. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTN AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER SRN AL
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN WILL KEEP DRY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...PCPN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK NORTH ARND THE SFC LOW OVER NRN FL. WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MORE RAIN/CLOUDS. A CDFNT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY THING AT ALL...WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 181132 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KS WAS PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF PCPN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS NOW
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE TN ZONES/NW AL.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FAIRLY DRY ATTM WITH CEILINGS
ARND 9000 FT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z. MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT AFTER 18Z THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ATTM WERE RANGING
FROM 34 AT FORT PAYNE TO 40 AT MSL. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND AFTER. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAINLY OVER OUR TN
ZONES THIS MRNG. OVERALL MODELS/RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE TN ZONES HAVING A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF PCPN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL END THE PCPN BY THIS
AFTN AND WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY AS WELL...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHC OF RAIN. TIMING OF PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MRNG. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTN AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER SRN AL
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN WILL KEEP DRY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...PCPN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK NORTH ARND THE SFC LOW OVER NRN FL. WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MORE RAIN/CLOUDS. A CDFNT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY THING AT ALL...WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KS WAS PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF PCPN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS NOW
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE TN ZONES/NW AL.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FAIRLY DRY ATTM WITH CEILINGS
ARND 9000 FT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z. MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT AFTER 18Z THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ATTM WERE RANGING
FROM 34 AT FORT PAYNE TO 40 AT MSL. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND AFTER. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAINLY OVER OUR TN
ZONES THIS MRNG. OVERALL MODELS/RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE TN ZONES HAVING A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF PCPN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL END THE PCPN BY THIS
AFTN AND WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY AS WELL...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHC OF RAIN. TIMING OF PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MRNG. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTN AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER SRN AL
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN WILL KEEP DRY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...PCPN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK NORTH ARND THE SFC LOW OVER NRN FL. WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MORE RAIN/CLOUDS. A CDFNT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY THING AT ALL...WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1122 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AT KMSL AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE
AT KHSV. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
SLOWLY BECOMING SCATTERED (BASES ARND 25KFT) JUST AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  35  48  38 /  20  10  20  90
SHOALS        48  35  49  40 /  30  10  30  90
VINEMONT      47  35  48  39 /  20  10  30  90
FAYETTEVILLE  46  34  48  38 /  30  10  20  90
ALBERTVILLE   47  35  48  39 /  20  10  20  90
FORT PAYNE    47  34  47  38 /  20  10  20  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KS WAS PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF PCPN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS NOW
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE TN ZONES/NW AL.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FAIRLY DRY ATTM WITH CEILINGS
ARND 9000 FT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z. MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT AFTER 18Z THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ATTM WERE RANGING
FROM 34 AT FORT PAYNE TO 40 AT MSL. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND AFTER. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAINLY OVER OUR TN
ZONES THIS MRNG. OVERALL MODELS/RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE TN ZONES HAVING A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF PCPN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL END THE PCPN BY THIS
AFTN AND WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY AS WELL...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHC OF RAIN. TIMING OF PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MRNG. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTN AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER SRN AL
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN WILL KEEP DRY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...PCPN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK NORTH ARND THE SFC LOW OVER NRN FL. WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MORE RAIN/CLOUDS. A CDFNT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY THING AT ALL...WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1122 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AT KMSL AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE
AT KHSV. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
SLOWLY BECOMING SCATTERED (BASES ARND 25KFT) JUST AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  35  48  38 /  20  10  20  90
SHOALS        48  35  49  40 /  30  10  30  90
VINEMONT      47  35  48  39 /  20  10  30  90
FAYETTEVILLE  46  34  48  38 /  30  10  20  90
ALBERTVILLE   47  35  48  39 /  20  10  20  90
FORT PAYNE    47  34  47  38 /  20  10  20  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KS WAS PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF PCPN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS NOW
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE TN ZONES/NW AL.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FAIRLY DRY ATTM WITH CEILINGS
ARND 9000 FT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z. MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT AFTER 18Z THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ATTM WERE RANGING
FROM 34 AT FORT PAYNE TO 40 AT MSL. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND AFTER. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAINLY OVER OUR TN
ZONES THIS MRNG. OVERALL MODELS/RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE TN ZONES HAVING A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF PCPN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL END THE PCPN BY THIS
AFTN AND WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY AS WELL...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHC OF RAIN. TIMING OF PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MRNG. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTN AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER SRN AL
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN WILL KEEP DRY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...PCPN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK NORTH ARND THE SFC LOW OVER NRN FL. WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MORE RAIN/CLOUDS. A CDFNT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY THING AT ALL...WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1122 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AT KMSL AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE
AT KHSV. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
SLOWLY BECOMING SCATTERED (BASES ARND 25KFT) JUST AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  35  48  38 /  20  10  20  90
SHOALS        48  35  49  40 /  30  10  30  90
VINEMONT      47  35  48  39 /  20  10  30  90
FAYETTEVILLE  46  34  48  38 /  30  10  20  90
ALBERTVILLE   47  35  48  39 /  20  10  20  90
FORT PAYNE    47  34  47  38 /  20  10  20  90

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180522 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 911 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
AN H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING,
WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP NOTED ON METARS IN THAT AREA. RAIN IS
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
TO THE E/NE, AND WILL AFFECT OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THANKFULLY, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TO OUR WEST, SO WE`RE EXPECTING
PRECIP OF THE LIQUID VARIETY IN OUR CWFA.

WILL RETAIN THE 20-POPS IN THE WEST BETWEEN 6-12Z, WITH THE THINKING
THAT NWRN AREAS MAY GET CLIPPED BY THE LIGHT RAIN. THE ONLY AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
THE AREA ~12Z, AND AT THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE LIKELY SCENARIO, IT WILL BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT TO ASSESS TRENDS. IT WILL NOT BE FORMALLY ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

IN FACT, THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WERE TO
DECREASE MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MAKING FOR TEMPS BETWEEN
33-34F AREAWIDE. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
THE HOURLY TRENDS, AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTED LOWS BETWEEN
33-34F, SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
WERE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AT KMSL AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE
AT KHSV. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
SLOWLY BECOMING SCATTERED (BASES ARND 25KFT) JUST AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180522 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 911 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
AN H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING,
WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP NOTED ON METARS IN THAT AREA. RAIN IS
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
TO THE E/NE, AND WILL AFFECT OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THANKFULLY, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TO OUR WEST, SO WE`RE EXPECTING
PRECIP OF THE LIQUID VARIETY IN OUR CWFA.

WILL RETAIN THE 20-POPS IN THE WEST BETWEEN 6-12Z, WITH THE THINKING
THAT NWRN AREAS MAY GET CLIPPED BY THE LIGHT RAIN. THE ONLY AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
THE AREA ~12Z, AND AT THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE LIKELY SCENARIO, IT WILL BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT TO ASSESS TRENDS. IT WILL NOT BE FORMALLY ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

IN FACT, THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WERE TO
DECREASE MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MAKING FOR TEMPS BETWEEN
33-34F AREAWIDE. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
THE HOURLY TRENDS, AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTED LOWS BETWEEN
33-34F, SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
WERE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AT KMSL AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE
AT KHSV. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
SLOWLY BECOMING SCATTERED (BASES ARND 25KFT) JUST AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180311 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
911 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING,
WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP NOTED ON METARS IN THAT AREA. RAIN IS
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
TO THE E/NE, AND WILL AFFECT OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THANKFULLY, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TO OUR WEST, SO WE`RE EXPECTING
PRECIP OF THE LIQUID VARIETY IN OUR CWFA.

WILL RETAIN THE 20-POPS IN THE WEST BETWEEN 6-12Z, WITH THE THINKING
THAT NWRN AREAS MAY GET CLIPPED BY THE LIGHT RAIN. THE ONLY AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
THE AREA ~12Z, AND AT THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE LIKELY SCENARIO, IT WILL BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT TO ASSESS TRENDS. IT WILL NOT BE FORMALLY ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

IN FACT, THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WERE TO
DECREASE MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MAKING FOR TEMPS BETWEEN
33-34F AREAWIDE. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
THE HOURLY TRENDS, AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTED LOWS BETWEEN
33-34F, SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
WERE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARND 9-10KFT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180311 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
911 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING,
WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP NOTED ON METARS IN THAT AREA. RAIN IS
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
TO THE E/NE, AND WILL AFFECT OUR AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THANKFULLY, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TO OUR WEST, SO WE`RE EXPECTING
PRECIP OF THE LIQUID VARIETY IN OUR CWFA.

WILL RETAIN THE 20-POPS IN THE WEST BETWEEN 6-12Z, WITH THE THINKING
THAT NWRN AREAS MAY GET CLIPPED BY THE LIGHT RAIN. THE ONLY AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAKING IT INTO
THE AREA ~12Z, AND AT THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL
BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE LIKELY SCENARIO, IT WILL BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT TO ASSESS TRENDS. IT WILL NOT BE FORMALLY ADDED
TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

IN FACT, THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WERE TO
DECREASE MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MAKING FOR TEMPS BETWEEN
33-34F AREAWIDE. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
THE HOURLY TRENDS, AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTED LOWS BETWEEN
33-34F, SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
WERE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARND 9-10KFT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 180006 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WAS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AREA AND
IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE MODELS QUICKLY INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
LATER FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT INVOLVING LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING POPS EXPECTED.

A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL ONLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES AND WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY EARLY TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE SIGNIFICANT
INVOLVING BUILDING COLDER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE-850 MILLIBAR TEMPS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED IN
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AT LEAST UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE
IT IS DAY SEVEN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR CHRISTMAS. TEMPS
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A
LARGE ROLE INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE LOWER ECMWF MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARND 9-10KFT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 180006 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WAS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AREA AND
IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE MODELS QUICKLY INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
LATER FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT INVOLVING LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING POPS EXPECTED.

A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL ONLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES AND WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY EARLY TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE SIGNIFICANT
INVOLVING BUILDING COLDER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE-850 MILLIBAR TEMPS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED IN
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AT LEAST UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE
IT IS DAY SEVEN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR CHRISTMAS. TEMPS
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A
LARGE ROLE INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE LOWER ECMWF MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARND 9-10KFT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 172103
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WAS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AREA AND
IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE MODELS QUICKLY INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
LATER FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT INVOLVING LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING POPS EXPECTED.

A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL ONLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES AND WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY EARLY TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE SIGNIFICANT
INVOLVING BUILDING COLDER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE-850 MILLIBAR TEMPS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED IN
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AT LEAST UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE
IT IS DAY SEVEN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR CHRISTMAS. TEMPS
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A
LARGE ROLE INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE LOWER ECMWF MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1121 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 21-22Z
TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY WITH THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE AOA 20 KFT. BY THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT CIGS LOWER TO AROUND
5 KFT. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT LIFT NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR
MIGHT BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT ANY RAIN MAY END UP BEING
VERY ISOLATED.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    35  48  35  50 /  10  30  10  40
SHOALS        35  49  35  50 /  20  30  10  40
VINEMONT      35  48  36  49 /  10  30  10  40
FAYETTEVILLE  34  47  34  48 /  10  30  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   34  48  35  49 /  10  30  10  40
FORT PAYNE    34  48  34  48 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171721
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1121 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 956 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THE NAM/RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT OF THE SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS TENNESSEE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 21-22Z
TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY WITH THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE AOA 20 KFT. BY THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT CIGS LOWER TO AROUND
5 KFT. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT LIFT NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR
MIGHT BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT ANY RAIN MAY END UP BEING
VERY ISOLATED.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171721
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1121 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 956 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THE NAM/RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT OF THE SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS TENNESSEE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 21-22Z
TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY WITH THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE AOA 20 KFT. BY THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT CIGS LOWER TO AROUND
5 KFT. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT LIFT NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR
MIGHT BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT ANY RAIN MAY END UP BEING
VERY ISOLATED.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171556
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THE NAM/RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT OF THE SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS TENNESSEE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR/ADD FUEL REQ CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS
FOR NOW...THX IN PART TO SOME LINGERING LOW ST IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MIX OUT/LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
OUT OF THE N GRADUALLY INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS MAY THEN BEGIN TO SCT OUT
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171556
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
956 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THE NAM/RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT OF THE SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS ACROSS TENNESSEE.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR/ADD FUEL REQ CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS
FOR NOW...THX IN PART TO SOME LINGERING LOW ST IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MIX OUT/LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
OUT OF THE N GRADUALLY INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS MAY THEN BEGIN TO SCT OUT
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171201 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. ATTM MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PCPN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MRNG. ALSO MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR/ADD FUEL REQ CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS
FOR NOW...THX IN PART TO SOME LINGERING LOW ST IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MIX OUT/LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
OUT OF THE N GRADUALLY INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS MAY THEN BEGIN TO SCT OUT
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 171201 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. ATTM MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PCPN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MRNG. ALSO MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR/ADD FUEL REQ CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS
FOR NOW...THX IN PART TO SOME LINGERING LOW ST IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MIX OUT/LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
OUT OF THE N GRADUALLY INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS MAY THEN BEGIN TO SCT OUT
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171006
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. ATTM MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PCPN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MRNG. ALSO MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171006
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. ATTM MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PCPN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MRNG. ALSO MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 171006
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. ATTM MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PCPN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MRNG. ALSO MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN
OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN
OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN
OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170912
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER WI CONTINUES TO KEEP WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ARND MOST OF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN.
HOWEVER BY THE AFTN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC SHRA OVER NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MRNG. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE DUE TO NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IN
OTHER WORDS NO GOOD GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT
OR THURSDAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTN
AND WILL END BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING IF NOT SOONER.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA
WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHRA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TOGETHER WITH SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY BY FRIDAY
AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AS FOR SVR WX...NONE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SOME STRONG
STORMS MAINLY OVER SRN AL AND ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTN AND ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY (MRNG/AFTN). BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE/SFC CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY WITH MORE
SHRA. GFS IS HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. ATTM MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...IF
ANY AT ALL. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST...WILL JUST KEEP
PCPN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ALL LIQUID.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    47  36  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
SHOALS        47  36  49  35 /  10  20  30  10
VINEMONT      49  36  48  36 /  10  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  47  35  47  34 /  10  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   49  35  48  35 /  10  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    48  35  48  34 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170519
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ~2-3KFT ARE MAKING FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST
UPDATE THIS EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THIS CANOPY
STILL HOLDING STEADY IN THE MIDDLE 40S, AND AREAS EXPERIENCING CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY REACHING THE FORECAST LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS LOW
CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SFC LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BUILDING EASTWARD, WITH OUR CWFA
ON THE TRANSITION LINE FROM LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH/EAST TO
CLEARING SKIES TO THE SOUTH/WEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE PARENT
UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DIVING SEWRD, WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE DESERT SW. THIS FEATURE
IS SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD, AND THE CLOSEST OF WHICH
ARE IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

FOR THIS REASON, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY. SEVERAL
`FINGERS` OF LOW CLOUDS ARE REACHING SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF
CLOUDS, AND THESE `FEATURES` WILL AFFECT TEMPS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TN RIVER WILL BE A TAD WARMER OVERNIGHT (UPPER 30S), AND AREAS
SOUTH WILL BE COOLER (LOWER/MIDDLE 30S) UNDER MOSTLY/CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING, ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS, MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL, BUT ALL OTHER WX
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170519
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ~2-3KFT ARE MAKING FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST
UPDATE THIS EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THIS CANOPY
STILL HOLDING STEADY IN THE MIDDLE 40S, AND AREAS EXPERIENCING CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY REACHING THE FORECAST LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS LOW
CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SFC LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BUILDING EASTWARD, WITH OUR CWFA
ON THE TRANSITION LINE FROM LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH/EAST TO
CLEARING SKIES TO THE SOUTH/WEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE PARENT
UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DIVING SEWRD, WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE DESERT SW. THIS FEATURE
IS SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD, AND THE CLOSEST OF WHICH
ARE IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

FOR THIS REASON, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY. SEVERAL
`FINGERS` OF LOW CLOUDS ARE REACHING SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF
CLOUDS, AND THESE `FEATURES` WILL AFFECT TEMPS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TN RIVER WILL BE A TAD WARMER OVERNIGHT (UPPER 30S), AND AREAS
SOUTH WILL BE COOLER (LOWER/MIDDLE 30S) UNDER MOSTLY/CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING, ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS, MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL, BUT ALL OTHER WX
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...MVFR CONDS IN OVC STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
17/15Z AT BOTH HSV/MSL. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2000-2500 FT RANGE...THE DECK MAY LOWER TO ARND 1500 FT BTWN 09-13Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL AT BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 15-21Z AS THE
STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER...BUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE AFTN AT THE EARLIEST. AS
THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM NNW TO NNE THRU
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 5 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 170325 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ~2-3KFT ARE MAKING FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST
UPDATE THIS EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THIS CANOPY
STILL HOLDING STEADY IN THE MIDDLE 40S, AND AREAS EXPERIENCING CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY REACHING THE FORECAST LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS LOW
CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SFC LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BUILDING EASTWARD, WITH OUR CWFA
ON THE TRANSITION LINE FROM LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH/EAST TO
CLEARING SKIES TO THE SOUTH/WEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE PARENT
UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DIVING SEWRD, WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE DESERT SW. THIS FEATURE
IS SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD, AND THE CLOSEST OF WHICH
ARE IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

FOR THIS REASON, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY. SEVERAL
`FINGERS` OF LOW CLOUDS ARE REACHING SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF
CLOUDS, AND THESE `FEATURES` WILL AFFECT TEMPS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TN RIVER WILL BE A TAD WARMER OVERNIGHT (UPPER 30S), AND AREAS
SOUTH WILL BE COOLER (LOWER/MIDDLE 30S) UNDER MOSTLY/CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING, ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS, MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL, BUT ALL OTHER WX
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CURRENT
CEILINGS ARND 2500-3000FT DIPPING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 2KFT BETWEEN
8-12Z. AFTER SUNRISE, SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 16Z,
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY 21Z TOMORROW. ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS (25KFT) ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 170325 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ~2-3KFT ARE MAKING FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST
UPDATE THIS EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH THIS CANOPY
STILL HOLDING STEADY IN THE MIDDLE 40S, AND AREAS EXPERIENCING CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY REACHING THE FORECAST LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS LOW
CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SFC LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BUILDING EASTWARD, WITH OUR CWFA
ON THE TRANSITION LINE FROM LOW STRATUS TO THE NORTH/EAST TO
CLEARING SKIES TO THE SOUTH/WEST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE PARENT
UPPER LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DIVING SEWRD, WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE DESERT SW. THIS FEATURE
IS SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD, AND THE CLOSEST OF WHICH
ARE IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

FOR THIS REASON, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY. SEVERAL
`FINGERS` OF LOW CLOUDS ARE REACHING SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF
CLOUDS, AND THESE `FEATURES` WILL AFFECT TEMPS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TN RIVER WILL BE A TAD WARMER OVERNIGHT (UPPER 30S), AND AREAS
SOUTH WILL BE COOLER (LOWER/MIDDLE 30S) UNDER MOSTLY/CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING, ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS, MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL, BUT ALL OTHER WX
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CURRENT
CEILINGS ARND 2500-3000FT DIPPING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 2KFT BETWEEN
8-12Z. AFTER SUNRISE, SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 16Z,
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY 21Z TOMORROW. ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS (25KFT) ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 162329
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED
THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL TREND TOWARD SOME CLEARING SKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COMPARED TO THE MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM
MODEL.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO AT LEAST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO A CHANCE POP FOR THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS
FLATTENS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A ZONAL FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY SET UP BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS AND
A CONTINUING RAIN CHANCE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION
BY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.

BY MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL FEED ON GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST TO RESULT IN AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CURRENT
CEILINGS ARND 2500-3000FT DIPPING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 2KFT BETWEEN
8-12Z. AFTER SUNRISE, SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 16Z,
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY 21Z TOMORROW. ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS (25KFT) ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 162329
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED
THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL TREND TOWARD SOME CLEARING SKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COMPARED TO THE MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM
MODEL.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO AT LEAST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO A CHANCE POP FOR THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS
FLATTENS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A ZONAL FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY SET UP BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS AND
A CONTINUING RAIN CHANCE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION
BY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.

BY MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL FEED ON GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST TO RESULT IN AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF TEMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CURRENT
CEILINGS ARND 2500-3000FT DIPPING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 2KFT BETWEEN
8-12Z. AFTER SUNRISE, SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 16Z,
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY 21Z TOMORROW. ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS (25KFT) ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




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