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000
FXUS64 KHUN 070905
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
REGION WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWWRD FROM THIS LOW INTO SW TEXAS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS OF 0830Z THIS MORNING. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG THE AL/TN BORDER THIS MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THESE
DEVELOP THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TO TAKE THE SYSTEMS TO THE E/NE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE PROGRESSING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE FIRST WAVE AND BRING THEM EAST TOWARDS
THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH THE ADVERTISED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY THESE STORMS WILL
BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN TENNESSEE.
A SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES LATER THIS WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS STEADILY INCREASE EACH DAY AND VALUES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW TOWARDS THE END OF
JUNE. ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
FOR THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UPWARDS
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW PLACES REACHING INTO THE UPPER
90S. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WOULD SUGGEST
THINGS REMAINING DRY LATE THIS WEEK...THE HOT TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN EACH AFTERNOON.

THE DIFFICULT ITEM WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
A BIT DRIER AND SHOW MORE OF THIS DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
EACH AFTERNOON WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THINK
THIS MIGHT BE OVER DONE AS RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IS NOT REPRESENTED WELL IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE SUMMER TIME IN THE SOUTHERN US.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY IN REGARDS
TO THE FORECASTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF
DIGS THE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A MORE FLAT/ZONAL
APPROACH THE RIDGE/TROUGH NEXT WEEK AND KEEP HOT TEMPS GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL WAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED BUT WORTH WATCHING.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WHEN MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED.
THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73/70

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  10
SHOALS        91  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  10
VINEMONT      88  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  71  89  70 /  20  20  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   88  71  89  71 /  20  10  20  10
FORT PAYNE    87  69  89  69 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 070905
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
REGION WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWWRD FROM THIS LOW INTO SW TEXAS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE
MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS OF 0830Z THIS MORNING. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG THE AL/TN BORDER THIS MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THESE
DEVELOP THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TO TAKE THE SYSTEMS TO THE E/NE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE PROGRESSING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
EASTWARD. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE FIRST WAVE AND BRING THEM EAST TOWARDS
THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH THE ADVERTISED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD TODAY THESE STORMS WILL
BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN TENNESSEE.
A SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES LATER THIS WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS STEADILY INCREASE EACH DAY AND VALUES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW TOWARDS THE END OF
JUNE. ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
FOR THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UPWARDS
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW PLACES REACHING INTO THE UPPER
90S. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WOULD SUGGEST
THINGS REMAINING DRY LATE THIS WEEK...THE HOT TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN EACH AFTERNOON.

THE DIFFICULT ITEM WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
A BIT DRIER AND SHOW MORE OF THIS DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
EACH AFTERNOON WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THINK
THIS MIGHT BE OVER DONE AS RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IS NOT REPRESENTED WELL IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE THE TYPICAL HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE SUMMER TIME IN THE SOUTHERN US.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY IN REGARDS
TO THE FORECASTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF
DIGS THE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A MORE FLAT/ZONAL
APPROACH THE RIDGE/TROUGH NEXT WEEK AND KEEP HOT TEMPS GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL WAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED BUT WORTH WATCHING.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WHEN MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED.
THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73/70

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  10
SHOALS        91  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  10
VINEMONT      88  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  87  71  89  70 /  20  20  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   88  71  89  71 /  20  10  20  10
FORT PAYNE    87  69  89  69 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 070546 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DISTURBANCES...AND CLOUD COVER WAS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN...LIMITING THE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...LOWS WERE RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS BACK ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE NOT
WIDESPREAD...THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WHEN MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED.
THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73/70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 070546 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DISTURBANCES...AND CLOUD COVER WAS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN...LIMITING THE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...LOWS WERE RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS BACK ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE NOT
WIDESPREAD...THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...WHEN MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED.
THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

73/70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 070217 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DISTURBANCES...AND CLOUD COVER WAS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN...LIMITING THE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...LOWS WERE RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS BACK ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE NOT
WIDESPREAD...THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 5000 FT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...AND PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE
MENTION OF MVFR MIST AT KMSL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR THE KHSV
TERMINAL...GIVEN THE LACK OF FOG/MIST THIS MORNING. ANY FOG/MIST THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 070217 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DISTURBANCES...AND CLOUD COVER WAS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN...LIMITING THE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...LOWS WERE RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EAST...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS BACK ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE NOT
WIDESPREAD...THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 5000 FT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...AND PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE
MENTION OF MVFR MIST AT KMSL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR THE KHSV
TERMINAL...GIVEN THE LACK OF FOG/MIST THIS MORNING. ANY FOG/MIST THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 062325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A VERY
HARD TIME DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE CAUSED BY A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ON LAPS/NAM SOUNDINGS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND HELP DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
BUILDING IN THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
IT DOES SEEM THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE CAPE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED BY THE GFS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THAT WAVE APPROACHING.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL START TO BACK BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF FROM SW TEXAS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL AVOID MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT STALLS BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PRE FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM IT...WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
HELP KEEP THE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE-THU BRINGING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING WARMER THAN THE MAV/GFS BY A FEW DEGREES
THIS WEEK...SO WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER VALUES AS WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EACH DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH IT BUILDING...HEIGHTS/850
TEMPS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH ALLOWING HIGHS TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP THROUGH THE TIME FRAME
WITH THE ECMWF MUCH DRIER. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...GOING TO CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT ONCE AGAIN...MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 5000 FT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...AND PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE
MENTION OF MVFR MIST AT KMSL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR THE KHSV
TERMINAL...GIVEN THE LACK OF FOG/MIST THIS MORNING. ANY FOG/MIST THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 062325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A VERY
HARD TIME DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE CAUSED BY A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ON LAPS/NAM SOUNDINGS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND HELP DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
BUILDING IN THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
IT DOES SEEM THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE CAPE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED BY THE GFS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THAT WAVE APPROACHING.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL START TO BACK BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF FROM SW TEXAS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL AVOID MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT STALLS BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PRE FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM IT...WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
HELP KEEP THE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE-THU BRINGING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING WARMER THAN THE MAV/GFS BY A FEW DEGREES
THIS WEEK...SO WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER VALUES AS WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EACH DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH IT BUILDING...HEIGHTS/850
TEMPS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH ALLOWING HIGHS TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP THROUGH THE TIME FRAME
WITH THE ECMWF MUCH DRIER. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...GOING TO CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT ONCE AGAIN...MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 5000 FT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...AND PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE
MENTION OF MVFR MIST AT KMSL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR THE KHSV
TERMINAL...GIVEN THE LACK OF FOG/MIST THIS MORNING. ANY FOG/MIST THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061939
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A VERY
HARD TIME DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE CAUSED BY A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ON LAPS/NAM SOUNDINGS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND HELP DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
BUILDING IN THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
IT DOES SEEM THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE CAPE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED BY THE GFS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THAT WAVE APPROACHING.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL START TO BACK BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF FROM SW TEXAS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL AVOID MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT STALLS BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PRE FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM IT...WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
HELP KEEP THE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE-THU BRINGING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING WARMER THAN THE MAV/GFS BY A FEW DEGREES
THIS WEEK...SO WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER VALUES AS WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EACH DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH IT BUILDING...HEIGHTS/850
TEMPS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH ALLOWING HIGHS TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP THROUGH THE TIME FRAME
WITH THE ECMWF MUCH DRIER. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...GOING TO CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT ONCE AGAIN...MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KMSL/KHSV SITES...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECT
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
SHOALS        69  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
VINEMONT      69  90  72  90 /  20  20  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  67  88  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FORT PAYNE    65  88  70  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061939
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A VERY
HARD TIME DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE CAUSED BY A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ON LAPS/NAM SOUNDINGS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND HELP DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
BUILDING IN THOUGH WHICH WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
IT DOES SEEM THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE CAPE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED BY THE GFS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THAT WAVE APPROACHING.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL START TO BACK BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF FROM SW TEXAS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL AVOID MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT AS IT STALLS BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PRE FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM IT...WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
HELP KEEP THE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE-THU BRINGING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MET/NAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING WARMER THAN THE MAV/GFS BY A FEW DEGREES
THIS WEEK...SO WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER VALUES AS WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EACH DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH IT BUILDING...HEIGHTS/850
TEMPS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH ALLOWING HIGHS TO ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP THROUGH THE TIME FRAME
WITH THE ECMWF MUCH DRIER. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...GOING TO CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT ONCE AGAIN...MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE DRY.


LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KMSL/KHSV SITES...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECT
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
SHOALS        69  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
VINEMONT      69  90  72  90 /  20  20  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  67  88  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   67  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FORT PAYNE    65  88  70  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061757 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH HAS BEEN FIRING OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD SINCE INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOSER
TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNDER WRAPS, GENERALLY KEEPING
THEM IN THE UPPER 70S UNTIL THE 16Z/11 AM OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, A
NARROW CLEARING BAND IS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z.

THE EARLIER 00Z HIGH-RES WINDOW MODEL RUNS AND 06Z NAM RESOLVED THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL, BUT SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP HAD NOT HANDLED IT AT ALL UNTIL RECENTLY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY
GET TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM KGWX
SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT INDEED BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM THESE STORMS THAT HELP INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE JULY SUN IS STILL VERY
POWERFUL AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME TO ERASE THAT DIFFERENCE. SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KMSL/KHSV SITES...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECT
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061757 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH HAS BEEN FIRING OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD SINCE INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOSER
TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNDER WRAPS, GENERALLY KEEPING
THEM IN THE UPPER 70S UNTIL THE 16Z/11 AM OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, A
NARROW CLEARING BAND IS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z.

THE EARLIER 00Z HIGH-RES WINDOW MODEL RUNS AND 06Z NAM RESOLVED THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL, BUT SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP HAD NOT HANDLED IT AT ALL UNTIL RECENTLY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY
GET TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM KGWX
SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT INDEED BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM THESE STORMS THAT HELP INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE JULY SUN IS STILL VERY
POWERFUL AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME TO ERASE THAT DIFFERENCE. SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KMSL/KHSV SITES...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECT
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061757 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH HAS BEEN FIRING OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD SINCE INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOSER
TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNDER WRAPS, GENERALLY KEEPING
THEM IN THE UPPER 70S UNTIL THE 16Z/11 AM OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, A
NARROW CLEARING BAND IS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z.

THE EARLIER 00Z HIGH-RES WINDOW MODEL RUNS AND 06Z NAM RESOLVED THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL, BUT SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP HAD NOT HANDLED IT AT ALL UNTIL RECENTLY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY
GET TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM KGWX
SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT INDEED BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM THESE STORMS THAT HELP INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE JULY SUN IS STILL VERY
POWERFUL AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME TO ERASE THAT DIFFERENCE. SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KMSL/KHSV SITES...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECT
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061757 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH HAS BEEN FIRING OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD SINCE INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOSER
TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNDER WRAPS, GENERALLY KEEPING
THEM IN THE UPPER 70S UNTIL THE 16Z/11 AM OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, A
NARROW CLEARING BAND IS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z.

THE EARLIER 00Z HIGH-RES WINDOW MODEL RUNS AND 06Z NAM RESOLVED THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL, BUT SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP HAD NOT HANDLED IT AT ALL UNTIL RECENTLY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY
GET TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM KGWX
SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT INDEED BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM THESE STORMS THAT HELP INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE JULY SUN IS STILL VERY
POWERFUL AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME TO ERASE THAT DIFFERENCE. SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KMSL/KHSV SITES...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW AFTER DUSK. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECT
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR FOG/MIST FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061613 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1113 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER IN NW ALABAMA. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH HAS BEEN FIRING OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD SINCE INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOSER
TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNDER WRAPS, GENERALLY KEEPING
THEM IN THE UPPER 70S UNTIL THE 16Z/11 AM OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, A
NARROW CLEARING BAND IS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z.

THE EARLIER 00Z HIGH-RES WINDOW MODEL RUNS AND 06Z NAM RESOLVED THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL, BUT SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP HAD NOT HANDLED IT AT ALL UNTIL RECENTLY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY
GET TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM KGWX
SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT INDEED BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM THESE STORMS THAT HELP INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE JULY SUN IS STILL VERY
POWERFUL AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME TO ERASE THAT DIFFERENCE. SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061613 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1113 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ADJUSTED POPS HIGHER IN NW ALABAMA. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH HAS BEEN FIRING OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVING, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STEADILY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD SINCE INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOSER
TO HOME, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS BEEN QUIET ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGES OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UNDER WRAPS, GENERALLY KEEPING
THEM IN THE UPPER 70S UNTIL THE 16Z/11 AM OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, A
NARROW CLEARING BAND IS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF 15Z.

THE EARLIER 00Z HIGH-RES WINDOW MODEL RUNS AND 06Z NAM RESOLVED THE
MISSISSIPPI CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL, BUT SHORTER-TERM MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND RAP HAD NOT HANDLED IT AT ALL UNTIL RECENTLY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS MOSTLY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY
GET TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM KGWX
SUGGEST THAT THIS MIGHT INDEED BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STEMMING FROM THESE STORMS THAT HELP INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POPS THERE TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 18Z.

OTHERWISE, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE JULY SUN IS STILL VERY
POWERFUL AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME TO ERASE THAT DIFFERENCE. SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 061202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 061202
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
702 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS REPORTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND IFR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STRATOCU DECK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
06/14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 3.5-5 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY
EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NC MISSISSIPPI MAY
SPREAD EWD INTO THE MSL AREA BY MID-AFTN AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
BEGINNING AT 19Z. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HSV
AND NO MENTION OF TSRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN AC CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 07/06Z...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY -- ESPECIALLY BTWN 09-12Z. THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING MSL...AND HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF...SOME LGT BR/FG WILL ALSO BE PSBL
BEGINNING AFTER 01Z. SFC WINDS WILL BACK FROM WSW TO SSW THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 060933
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
433 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATING A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL
AL INTO NORTHERN GA AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHER TO THE WEST IN NW ALABAMA SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND WE WILL WATCH THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. THESE WARMER TEMPS COUPLED WITH UVM FROM A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR/HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS ALL INDICATE
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MS NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME DRIER AIR STILL FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WILL
COME FROM A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. WE WILL BE A BIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8
RANGE. THESE VALUES AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HUMID CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VALUES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE ENTIRE TN VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS THEY WERE IN
JUNE...THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY WE COULD SEE SOME DRIER FILTER IN AND PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOOKING AHEAD MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE HIGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.



STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 08Z-14Z. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 1SM/OVC010 BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY GO LOWER. TIMING MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPS DROP. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    88  71  91  72 /  20  20  20  20
SHOALS        89  71  91  72 /  20  20  20  20
VINEMONT      85  70  89  71 /  20  20  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  85  70  88  71 /  20  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   85  70  89  71 /  20  20  20  20
FORT PAYNE    85  68  88  69 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060540
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TN COUNTIES. PER WATER
VAPOR...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST. DO NOT FEEL THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TONIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 08Z-14Z. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 1SM/OVC010 BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY GO LOWER. TIMING MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPS DROP. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060540
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TN COUNTIES. PER WATER
VAPOR...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST. DO NOT FEEL THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TONIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 08Z-14Z. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 1SM/OVC010 BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY GO LOWER. TIMING MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPS DROP. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 060540
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TN COUNTIES. PER WATER
VAPOR...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST. DO NOT FEEL THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TONIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 08Z-14Z. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 1SM/OVC010 BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY GO LOWER. TIMING MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPS DROP. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 060540
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TN COUNTIES. PER WATER
VAPOR...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST. DO NOT FEEL THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TONIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FOG THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP AROUND 08Z-14Z. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 1SM/OVC010 BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY GO LOWER. TIMING MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPS DROP. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 060146
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TN COUNTIES. PER WATER
VAPOR...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST. DO NOT FEEL THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TONIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z WHEN FOG FORMATION AND LOW
CIGS BEGINS TO AFFECT ALL OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER TN SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT MAY
NEED TO AMEND KHSV IF ANY STORMS DO FORM BEFORE 02Z. AFTER 08Z, MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ESPECIALLY AT KMSL. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOW CIGS ARE ENOUGH
TO HINDER LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY 14Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 060146
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
846 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
TRACKING NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TN COUNTIES. PER WATER
VAPOR...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST. DO NOT FEEL THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SO LOWERED POPS TO 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TONIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z WHEN FOG FORMATION AND LOW
CIGS BEGINS TO AFFECT ALL OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER TN SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT MAY
NEED TO AMEND KHSV IF ANY STORMS DO FORM BEFORE 02Z. AFTER 08Z, MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ESPECIALLY AT KMSL. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOW CIGS ARE ENOUGH
TO HINDER LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY 14Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...AS REX-STYLE BLOCKING REMAINED SITUATED OFF OF
THE WEST COAST. THE BLOCK AND A FURTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN
RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE DESERT SW...AND TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DESPITE A GENERALLY WEAKER TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW
WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND AN UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...HAS BROUGHT MORE SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST
UPPER SUPPORT TODAY HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...EVIDENT
WITH MORE ACTIVE STORMS OVER THOSE REGIONS THUS FAR. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS
SO FAR WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE TO THE NE...AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE
STATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LOW EXITING TO THE NE
WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME...PRIMARILY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOWER END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) IN FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SUN APPEARING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE A TAD MORE THAN TODAY...INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80 FOR MON/TUE. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT TO WED. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME...AND
SILENT 14 POPS FOR THE NIGHTS. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A TAD ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE MID AND LATTER
WEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. WITH MORE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION...HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z WHEN FOG FORMATION AND LOW
CIGS BEGINS TO AFFECT ALL OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER TN SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT MAY
NEED TO AMEND KHSV IF ANY STORMS DO FORM BEFORE 02Z. AFTER 08Z, MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ESPECIALLY AT KMSL. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOW CIGS ARE ENOUGH
TO HINDER LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY 14Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...AS REX-STYLE BLOCKING REMAINED SITUATED OFF OF
THE WEST COAST. THE BLOCK AND A FURTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN
RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE DESERT SW...AND TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DESPITE A GENERALLY WEAKER TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW
WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND AN UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...HAS BROUGHT MORE SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST
UPPER SUPPORT TODAY HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...EVIDENT
WITH MORE ACTIVE STORMS OVER THOSE REGIONS THUS FAR. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS
SO FAR WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE TO THE NE...AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE
STATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LOW EXITING TO THE NE
WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME...PRIMARILY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOWER END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) IN FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SUN APPEARING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE A TAD MORE THAN TODAY...INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80 FOR MON/TUE. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT TO WED. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME...AND
SILENT 14 POPS FOR THE NIGHTS. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A TAD ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE MID AND LATTER
WEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. WITH MORE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION...HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z WHEN FOG FORMATION AND LOW
CIGS BEGINS TO AFFECT ALL OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER TN SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT MAY
NEED TO AMEND KHSV IF ANY STORMS DO FORM BEFORE 02Z. AFTER 08Z, MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ESPECIALLY AT KMSL. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOW CIGS ARE ENOUGH
TO HINDER LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN BY 14Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 052043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...AS REX-STYLE BLOCKING REMAINED SITUATED OFF OF
THE WEST COAST. THE BLOCK AND A FURTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN
RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE DESERT SW...AND TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DESPITE A GENERALLY WEAKER TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW
WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND AN UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...HAS BROUGHT MORE SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST
UPPER SUPPORT TODAY HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...EVIDENT
WITH MORE ACTIVE STORMS OVER THOSE REGIONS THUS FAR. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS
SO FAR WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE TO THE NE...AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE
STATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LOW EXITING TO THE NE
WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME...PRIMARILY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOWER END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) IN FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SUN APPEARING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE A TAD MORE THAN TODAY...INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80 FOR MON/TUE. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT TO WED. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME...AND
SILENT 14 POPS FOR THE NIGHTS. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A TAD ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE MID AND LATTER
WEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. WITH MORE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION...HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THESE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP MAY AFFECT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS PERIODICALLY THROUGH 22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...AS THE ATMOSPHERE AND GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  88  71  90 /  30  30  20  20
SHOALS        69  88  71  90 /  30  30  20  20
VINEMONT      67  85  71  88 /  30  30  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  68  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   68  85  71  87 /  30  30  20  20
FORT PAYNE    66  85  69  87 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 052043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...AS REX-STYLE BLOCKING REMAINED SITUATED OFF OF
THE WEST COAST. THE BLOCK AND A FURTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN
RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE DESERT SW...AND TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. DESPITE A GENERALLY WEAKER TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW
WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND AN UNSTABLE/MOIST ATMOSPHERE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...HAS BROUGHT MORE SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST
UPPER SUPPORT TODAY HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...EVIDENT
WITH MORE ACTIVE STORMS OVER THOSE REGIONS THUS FAR. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OTHERWISE PREVAILED OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS
SO FAR WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE TO THE NE...AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE
STATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE LOW EXITING TO THE NE
WILL RESULT IN LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME...PRIMARILY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOWER END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) IN FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SUN APPEARING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE A TAD MORE THAN TODAY...INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80 FOR MON/TUE. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT TO WED. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME...AND
SILENT 14 POPS FOR THE NIGHTS. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A TAD ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THE MID AND LATTER
WEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. WITH MORE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION...HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THESE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP MAY AFFECT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS PERIODICALLY THROUGH 22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...AS THE ATMOSPHERE AND GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  88  71  90 /  30  30  20  20
SHOALS        69  88  71  90 /  30  30  20  20
VINEMONT      67  85  71  88 /  30  30  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  68  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   68  85  71  87 /  30  30  20  20
FORT PAYNE    66  85  69  87 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THESE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP MAY AFFECT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS PERIODICALLY THROUGH 22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...AS THE ATMOSPHERE AND GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THESE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP MAY AFFECT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS PERIODICALLY THROUGH 22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...AS THE ATMOSPHERE AND GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THESE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP MAY AFFECT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS PERIODICALLY THROUGH 22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...AS THE ATMOSPHERE AND GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051516 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER MORNING POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051516 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER MORNING POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051516 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER MORNING POP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051139
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051139
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051139
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051139
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED NE OF THE NASHVILLE
REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SYSTEM HELPED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...WHERE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME OF THIS MAY
FILTER INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO MOVE
IN SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  69  88  71 /  50  40  40  30
SHOALS        85  69  90  71 /  40  40  40  30
VINEMONT      82  67  86  71 /  50  50  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  81  68  86  70 /  60  40  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  68  85  71 /  50  50  30  30
FORT PAYNE    81  66  85  69 /  70  50  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 051050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  69  88  71 /  50  40  40  30
SHOALS        85  69  90  71 /  40  40  40  30
VINEMONT      82  67  86  71 /  50  50  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  81  68  86  70 /  60  40  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  68  85  71 /  50  50  30  30
FORT PAYNE    81  66  85  69 /  70  50  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 051050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA...LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHARP SW-TO-NE GRADIENT
IN RAIN CHANCES. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY...AS ALL MODELS AGREE TO
SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS
A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WHERE LESS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE MAY
INITIATE A SEPARATE EPISODE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KNOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE DUE TO A MUCH LOWER THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A VORT MAX RIDING ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC/GULF COAST REGIONS. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL ALLOW PWAT VALUES -- WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE 1.1-1.3 RANGE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD -- TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY
TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT IN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH WEAK FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL, STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN -- WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOWS LIKEWISE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EFFICIENT EVAPORATION OF SOIL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
DEWPOINTS...WITH HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO REACH THE 98-102 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
IN AN INCREASINGLY STORMY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  69  88  71 /  50  40  40  30
SHOALS        85  69  90  71 /  40  40  40  30
VINEMONT      82  67  86  71 /  50  50  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  81  68  86  70 /  60  40  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   80  68  85  71 /  50  50  30  30
FORT PAYNE    81  66  85  69 /  70  50  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 050511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 050511 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...TWO VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT KHSV AND KMSL RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT. AT KMSL...LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AT KHSV...LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY STAY
PARKED THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SCTD SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES
THOUGH ADDITIONAL VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECTING
FREQUENT UPDATES TO BE NECESSARY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO TN.
CONDITIONS AT KHSV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH BOTH
SITES DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050209 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE COMING AROUND 10 PM TO REFLECT
CHANGING POPS, BUT MINIMAL CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050209 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE COMING AROUND 10 PM TO REFLECT
CHANGING POPS, BUT MINIMAL CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 050209 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE COMING AROUND 10 PM TO REFLECT
CHANGING POPS, BUT MINIMAL CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 050209 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE COMING AROUND 10 PM TO REFLECT
CHANGING POPS, BUT MINIMAL CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIREWORKS SHOWS ARE GETTING A LITTLE WET THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TN VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THIS
IS DRIVING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
ALABAMA. DESPITE MESOANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING ROBUST
INSTABILITY, LITTLE IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISPLAYED ANY
LIGHTNING IN THE REGION--THAT HAS OCCURRED EITHER TO THE NORTH, NEAR
I-40 (IN WHAT COULD BE CALLED A DEFORMATION AXIS), OR TO THE SOUTH
NEAR I-20.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT MURKY. SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS PATTERN PARTICULARLY WELL AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT, THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR OFF RIGHT
NOW. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH
ANY CHANGES SHOULD BE MINOR DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN HELPING TO SATURATE THIS SOIL THIS EVENING, IT MAKES SENSE TO
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE 12Z/05 EXPIRATION TIME.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FIT
ONGOING TRENDS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 042333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 042333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 042333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 042333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD THROUGH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER FEATURE HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW AL COULD SWIPE KMSL
00-02Z...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KHSV FOR A LONGER PERIOD
00-04Z. HALEYVILLE/1M4 HAS SEEN VIS DROP TO 1 3/4SM IN HVY RAIN SO
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR ARE PSBL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KHSV.
ONCE THE SHRA BAND HAS PASSED...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR-IFR /SOME
CHANCE THEY COULD LOWER FURTHER/ AND FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU 18Z/05.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041845
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY
THE LEAST. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL
DEFINED PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD
THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER
FEATURE HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS. BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 20Z...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21
AND 01Z LATER. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BRIEFLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  85  70  90 /  80  60  40  40
SHOALS        69  85  69  89 /  80  50  30  30
VINEMONT      67  83  68  86 /  80  60  40  40
FAYETTEVILLE  67  83  68  86 /  80  60  40  40
ALBERTVILLE   67  83  68  86 /  80  70  40  40
FORT PAYNE    65  83  66  86 /  80  70  40  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041845
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM TO SAY
THE LEAST. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CHAOTIC AND ILL
DEFINED PATTERN. ONE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH FROM
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM NEAR ATLANTA WESTWARD
THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS LATTER
FEATURE HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. IN
BETWEEN...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE AND LIGHT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM
SOUTHERN TN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES/BOUNDARIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS SUCH...IT HAS BECOME A NOWCASTING AND
DIAGNOSTIC TYPE OF FORECASTING CHALLENGE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 2
KJ/KG AND SOME INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H7-H5 LOW. THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED EAST OF I-65 BY THIS
EVENING AND PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF (RELATIVELY SPEAKING IN
THAT AREA). AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WITH FFG VALUES SO LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP...SEE NO REASON TO NOT KEEP IT
GOING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY FILL IN SOME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS GOING (ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND EAST)
AS THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY
IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE WANE BY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS EASTWARD BUT GIVEN SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY I DIDN`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE POPS.

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES IN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL TREND OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL BRING THE EVER PESKY NWRLY FLOW TO THE TN VLY. IN
THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN ONE CAN USUALLY BANK ON WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION AND THE OCCASIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. NOW GOOD LUCK TRYING TO TIME THE
LATTER WITH MUCH SUCCESS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY RUN AT OR JUST A TAD BELOW CLIMO
LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AFTN BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT FLAVOR.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS. BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 20Z...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21
AND 01Z LATER. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BRIEFLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  85  70  90 /  80  60  40  40
SHOALS        69  85  69  89 /  80  50  30  30
VINEMONT      67  83  68  86 /  80  60  40  40
FAYETTEVILLE  67  83  68  86 /  80  60  40  40
ALBERTVILLE   67  83  68  86 /  80  70  40  40
FORT PAYNE    65  83  66  86 /  80  70  40  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041727 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS. BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 20Z...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21
AND 01Z LATER. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BRIEFLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041727 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS. BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 20Z...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21
AND 01Z LATER. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BRIEFLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041727 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS. BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 20Z...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21
AND 01Z LATER. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BRIEFLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041727 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS. BIT OF AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 20Z...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21
AND 01Z LATER. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BRIEFLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST AFTERNOON QPF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO BOTH
TERMINALS AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING AND THESE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROX. 19Z. AFTER THIS MODELS
INDICATE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST AFTERNOON QPF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO BOTH
TERMINALS AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING AND THESE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROX. 19Z. AFTER THIS MODELS
INDICATE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 041142
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST
TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING INTACT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. A WELL DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMA -- CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS -- IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATER TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PERSIST DURING THE 12-18Z
TIMEFRAME THIS MORNING...AND HAVE INDICATED A SHARP N-S GRADIENT IN
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION...
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD.
DUE TO EXPECTATIONS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT /1-3 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SW CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SPREAD RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER -- REACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF VORT MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE
THAN ADVERTISED PREVIOUSLY...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND ALOFT...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A
CHANCE POP WILL BE REQUIRED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS
PERIOD...DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
GREATER INSTABILITY AND A HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
CONVECTION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
INDICATES THAT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST...WITH NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE REMAINING BENEATH A CURRENT OF FASTER
WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY
BYPASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH IN THIS REGIME...ALTHOUGH THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN A MORE
PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES
MAY INCREASE INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC LIFT POPS
WERE INCREASED -- ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE LOWER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH SATURATED
GROUNDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...STIFLING HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS --
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO BOTH
TERMINALS AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING AND THESE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROX. 19Z. AFTER THIS MODELS
INDICATE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 041142
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST
TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINING INTACT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. A WELL DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMA -- CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS -- IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATER TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PERSIST DURING THE 12-18Z
TIMEFRAME THIS MORNING...AND HAVE INDICATED A SHARP N-S GRADIENT IN
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION...
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD.
DUE TO EXPECTATIONS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT /1-3 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SW CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SPREAD RATHER
QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER -- REACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF VORT MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE
THAN ADVERTISED PREVIOUSLY...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND ALOFT...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A
CHANCE POP WILL BE REQUIRED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS
PERIOD...DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
GREATER INSTABILITY AND A HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
CONVECTION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
INDICATES THAT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST...WITH NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE REMAINING BENEATH A CURRENT OF FASTER
WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY
BYPASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH IN THIS REGIME...ALTHOUGH THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN A MORE
PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES
MAY INCREASE INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC LIFT POPS
WERE INCREASED -- ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE LOWER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH SATURATED
GROUNDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...STIFLING HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS --
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO BOTH
TERMINALS AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING AND THESE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROX. 19Z. AFTER THIS MODELS
INDICATE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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