000
FXUS64 KHUN 200825
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
325 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT INVOLVING HAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. HAVE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH GFS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE GFS
TEMPS TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS
FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM MODEL...DEVELOP A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL ALSO ATTEMPTS
TO MOVE ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION BY SUNDAY. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING LIFTING THE
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY MORE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MORE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS TEMPS INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. THE MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND CLOSER TO
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP NEARING SUNRISE AROUND
BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCT TO BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTN...WITH SCT
SHRA AND POSSIBLY -TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z. COVERAGE OF SCT PRECIP
SHOULD BE GREATER THAN THAT SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN BUT LONG DURATION
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
CCC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 93 67 91 68 / 20 20 20 10
SHOALS 92 67 91 68 / 20 20 20 10
VINEMONT 90 65 87 67 / 20 20 20 10
FAYETTEVILLE 91 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 90 64 86 67 / 20 20 20 10
FORT PAYNE 89 63 85 65 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200523 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 949 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA (AND ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES) QUICKLY DISSIPATED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND HAVE LEFT A QUIET
RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A CALM NIGHT IS
THEREFORE SETTLING IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF RAPIDLY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ARE READING
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREE WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...THE
RELATIVE LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS LED TO A QUICKER COOLING TREND
ACROSS THE CWA (NEARLY 10 DEGREES IN THE PAST 2 HOURS).
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST
ALABAMA VERSUS THE LINGERING URBAN HEAT AROUND KHSV FOR EXAMPLE. WITH
THE SCT SHOWERS THAT REMAINED IN THE AREA JUST AFTER
SUNSET...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST SO
LIKEWISE ADJUSTED THOSE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT MOISTURE.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ALSO
INDICATE THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS PERSISTENT MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THERE MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BASED ON THE MORE RAPID COOLING TREND
AND LINGERING MOISTURE. BUT WITH THE SUNSHINE SEEN TODAY TO DRY THE
SFC (AFTER THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN YESTERDAY) AND THE LACK OF FOG
THIS MORNING...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON THE FOG THREAT WOULD BE ANY
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE QUIET WEATHER
FORECAST GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH NO FOG MENTION.
CCC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP NEARING SUNRISE AROUND
BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCT TO BKN MID
LVL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTN...WITH SCT
SHRA AND POSSIBLY -TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z. COVERAGE OF SCT PRECIP
SHOULD BE GREATER THAN THAT SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN BUT LONG DURATION
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200249 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
949 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA (AND ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES) QUICKLY DISSIPATED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND HAVE LEFT A QUIET
RADAR OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A CALM NIGHT IS
THEREFORE SETTLING IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF RAPIDLY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ARE READING
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREE WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...THE
RELATIVE LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS LED TO A QUICKER COOLING TREND
ACROSS THE CWA (NEARLY 10 DEGREES IN THE PAST 2 HOURS).
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST
ALABAMA VERSUS THE LINGERING URBAN HEAT AROUND KHSV FOR EXAMPLE. WITH
THE SCT SHOWERS THAT REMAINED IN THE AREA JUST AFTER
SUNSET...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST SO
LIKEWISE ADJUSTED THOSE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT MOISTURE.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ALSO
INDICATE THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS PERSISTENT MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THERE MAY BE SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BASED ON THE MORE RAPID COOLING TREND
AND LINGERING MOISTURE. BUT WITH THE SUNSHINE SEEN TODAY TO DRY THE
SFC (AFTER THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN YESTERDAY) AND THE LACK OF FOG
THIS MORNING...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON THE FOG THREAT WOULD BE ANY
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE QUIET WEATHER
FORECAST GOING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH NO FOG MENTION.
CCC
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR A SHORT PERIOD BTWN 10-12Z TOMORROW MORNING WHEN PATCHY MVFR FOG
MAY DEVELOP. A SCT/BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTN TOMORROW AND A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY POP UP DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NO LONG
DURATION IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
CCC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
A PREVAILING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. WE WILL
CARRY A VERY LOW EARLY EVENING POP FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 20/03Z AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
MID 60S.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AXIS --
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS -- WILL
PROGRESS EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID/UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY TEND TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW...BOTH ALONG A WEAK/DIFFUSE FRONT THAT
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DEEPENING THERMALS WILL BE FIGHTING
THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AT 20 PERCENT --
ESPECIALLY AS PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 1.3-1.5 INCH
RANGE AND A LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK/ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS. WEAK FORCING FOR UVM WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...AS THE REMNANT SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...IT STILL APPEARS AS
IF THE REMNANT SHEAR AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA OR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICES EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS POINT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR DRIFT
EASTWARD -- ALLOWING A STRONGER HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND HOLD
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-AROUND
90 AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192331 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
A PREVAILING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. WE WILL
CARRY A VERY LOW EARLY EVENING POP FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 20/03Z AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
MID 60S.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AXIS --
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS -- WILL
PROGRESS EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID/UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY TEND TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW...BOTH ALONG A WEAK/DIFFUSE FRONT THAT
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DEEPENING THERMALS WILL BE FIGHTING
THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AT 20 PERCENT --
ESPECIALLY AS PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 1.3-1.5 INCH
RANGE AND A LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK/ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS. WEAK FORCING FOR UVM WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...AS THE REMNANT SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...IT STILL APPEARS AS
IF THE REMNANT SHEAR AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA OR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICES EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS POINT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR DRIFT
EASTWARD -- ALLOWING A STRONGER HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND HOLD
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-AROUND
90 AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR A SHORT PERIOD BTWN 10-12Z TOMORROW MORNING WHEN PATCHY MVFR FOG
MAY DEVELOP. A SCT/BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTN TOMORROW AND A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY POP UP DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND THEREFORE NO LONG
DURATION IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192025
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
325 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A PREVAILING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. WE WILL
CARRY A VERY LOW EARLY EVENING POP FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER 20/03Z AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
MID 60S.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AXIS --
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS -- WILL
PROGRESS EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID/UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY TEND TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW...BOTH ALONG A WEAK/DIFFUSE FRONT THAT
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HOWEVER...DEEPENING THERMALS WILL BE FIGHTING
THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...AS THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AT 20 PERCENT --
ESPECIALLY AS PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 1.3-1.5 INCH
RANGE AND A LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK/ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS. WEAK FORCING FOR UVM WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...AS THE REMNANT SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...IT STILL APPEARS AS
IF THE REMNANT SHEAR AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA OR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICES EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THIS POINT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR DRIFT
EASTWARD -- ALLOWING A STRONGER HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND HOLD
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-AROUND
90 AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN CIGS
BELOW VFR CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AROUND 20/12Z WHEN
FOG COULD LOWER VSBYS INTO THE MVFR REALM. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KTW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 68 92 67 91 / 10 20 20 20
SHOALS 66 92 67 91 / 10 20 20 20
VINEMONT 65 89 65 87 / 10 20 20 20
FAYETTEVILLE 66 90 66 88 / 20 20 20 20
ALBERTVILLE 64 89 64 86 / 10 20 20 20
FORT PAYNE 63 88 63 85 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191714 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1214 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA HAVE PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF CULLMAN AND DEKALB COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST HEATING HAS
PRODUCE A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD DUE TO SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT
SEEN IN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING NORTH
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY/NORTHERN TENNESSEE.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A TRIGGER...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON INSERTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH. STILL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN GRIDS.
BASED ON 12Z ANALYSIS...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVERALL AND DEPICTED
MORE OF A RANGE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAN IN PREVIOUS GRIDS.
KTW
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN
CIGS BELOW VFR CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AROUND 20/12Z
WHEN FOG COULD LOWER VSBYS INTO THE MVFR REALM. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KTW
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191638 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN ZONE AND TWEAK
TEMPERATURES
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA HAVE PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF CULLMAN AND DEKALB COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST HEATING HAS
PRODUCE A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD DUE TO SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT
SEEN IN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING NORTH
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY/NORTHERN TENNESSEE.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A TRIGGER...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON INSERTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH. STILL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN GRIDS.
BASED ON 12Z ANALYSIS...LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVERALL AND DEPICTED
MORE OF A RANGE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAN IN PREVIOUS GRIDS.
KTW
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR
VISIBILITY AT HSV AND MSL FROM 10Z-12Z.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191413 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
913 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1345Z AND AREA OBSERVATIONS...CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED MOST AREAS...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING. A SECOND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHING FROM THE WASHINGTON DC AREA WEST
INTO NOTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...AS
UPSTREAM ARKANSAS UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON /PER 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING/ AS
THE FRONT OVER KENTUCKY PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT THINK THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE
MODIFIED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
KTW
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR
VISIBILITY AT HSV AND MSL FROM 10Z-12Z.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191140 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
640 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
FAR MORE QUIET WX PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
EARLY WED MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH
HELPED BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON HAS
NOW PRETTY MUCH STALLED JUST S/E OF THE AREA FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO
CNTRL AL/MS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH
CLEARER SKIES W OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE MID/SRN PLAINS SHOULD AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR WWD WHICH MAY HELP WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING LATER
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OTHER SFC BOUNDARY OF NOTE OVER
THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGIONS PUSHING SWD INTO MID TN LATER TODAY
AND WEAKENING. SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THU
COUPLED WITH ANY LINGERING UPPER FORCING MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS MECH
FOR ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.
THE FORECAST OTHERWISE PRETTY MUCH READS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT
LEAST INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. SFC RIDGE IS XPCTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
STAGNANT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN INTO FRI. UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W IS ALSO XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS BUILD
INTO THE MIDWEST REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A
GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW PATTERN AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE PROB OF ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMPS EACH
DAY...WITH BOTH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER A BIT MORE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD
STARTING SUN...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR
VISIBILITY AT HSV AND MSL FROM 10Z-12Z.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190820
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FAR MORE QUIET WX PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS
EARLY WED MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH
HELPED BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WET PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON HAS
NOW PRETTY MUCH STALLED JUST S/E OF THE AREA FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO
CNTRL AL/MS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH
CLEARER SKIES W OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE MID/SRN PLAINS SHOULD AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR WWD WHICH MAY HELP WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING LATER
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL TRENDS.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OTHER SFC BOUNDARY OF NOTE OVER
THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST REGIONS PUSHING SWD INTO MID TN LATER TODAY
AND WEAKENING. SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THU
COUPLED WITH ANY LINGERING UPPER FORCING MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS MECH
FOR ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.
THE FORECAST OTHERWISE PRETTY MUCH READS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT
LEAST INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. SFC RIDGE IS XPCTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
STAGNANT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN INTO FRI. UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W IS ALSO XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS BUILD
INTO THE MIDWEST REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A
GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW PATTERN AT THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE PROB OF ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMPS EACH
DAY...WITH BOTH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER A BIT MORE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD
STARTING SUN...WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SITES SHOULD
START TO SEE A PREVAILING DROP TO MVFR BY 08Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF LOW END MVFR/IFR VIS BTWN 09-12Z AS FOG THICKENS.
VIS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NNE WINDS BTWN 05-10KTS.
CCC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 90 66 91 67 / 10 10 20 10
SHOALS 91 66 90 66 / 10 10 20 10
VINEMONT 88 66 88 66 / 10 10 20 10
FAYETTEVILLE 87 65 88 65 / 10 10 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 88 65 88 64 / 10 10 20 10
FORT PAYNE 87 63 88 63 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190529 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1001 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY QUICKLY
DISSIPATED FOLLOWING SUNSET. THE WIND SHIFT THAT FOLLOWED BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT
LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT SEEMS TO BE
MORE ATTRIBUTED TO DIURNAL COOLING THAN ANY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. 9PM TEMPS STILL RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S (AT
TULLAHOMA/WINCHESTER AND VINEMONT) TO THE MID 70S (KHSV)...WHICH ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM SURROUNDING CWAS ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE BOUNDARY.
THE GOING FORECAST WAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFECTS
FROM SOME LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING OUR WAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. SCT TO BKN250 CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND HELP
DAMPEN THE EXPECTED DIURNAL COOLING...AND THEREFORE HELP PREVENT
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AM STILL LEAVING FOG WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SINCE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING TO AT LEAST
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG (HELPED BY ALL THE GROUND MOISTURE REMAINING
FROM RECENT RAINS). HAVE OTHERWISE UPDATED PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z AS ALL THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AND
INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS.
CCC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SITES SHOULD
START TO SEE A PREVAILING DROP TO MVFR BY 08Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF LOW END MVFR/IFR VIS BTWN 09-12Z AS FOG THICKENS.
VIS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NNE WINDS BTWN 05-10KTS.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190301 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1001 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY QUICKLY
DISSIPATED FOLLOWING SUNSET. THE WIND SHIFT THAT FOLLOWED BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT
LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT SEEMS TO BE
MORE ATTRIBUTED TO DIURNAL COOLING THAN ANY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. 9PM TEMPS STILL RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S (AT
TULLAHOMA/WINCHESTER AND VINEMONT) TO THE MID 70S (KHSV)...WHICH ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM SURROUNDING CWAS ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE BOUNDARY.
THE GOING FORECAST WAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFECTS
FROM SOME LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING OUR WAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. SCT TO BKN250 CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND HELP
DAMPEN THE EXPECTED DIURNAL COOLING...AND THEREFORE HELP PREVENT
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AM STILL LEAVING FOG WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SINCE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING TO AT LEAST
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG (HELPED BY ALL THE GROUND MOISTURE REMAINING
FROM RECENT RAINS). HAVE OTHERWISE UPDATED PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z AS ALL THE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AND
INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS.
CCC
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR THE PERIOD. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLEARING OF CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...MVFR FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY ARND 08Z AND
CONTINUE TO DROP VIS THRU THE EARLY MORNING. ATTM AM EXPECTING KMSL
TO SEE THE LOWER VISBYS (TO IFR/2SM AT TIMES) BUT IF MORE OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS DISSIPATE...FOG COULD BECOME MUCH THICKER AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL BE MONITORING EVENING TRENDS CLOSELY FOR UPDATES.
CCC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY, ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, BECAUSE A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE THREE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON:
AN INITIAL FRONT NOW ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM KTUP TO VINEMONT/3A1 TO BETWEEN WINCHESTER/BGF AND KCHA,
AND A THIRD MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE 2ND BOUNDARY
IN NORTH ALABAMA, BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE NOW IN THE HUN CWFA. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE OFF-AND-ON RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 80S.
WHILE THE WETTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE PERIOD IS COMING TO AN END, WE
ARE NOT GOING TO BE TOTALLY DRY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ONCE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
ANY DECENT CLEARING. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DRIVE THE 3RD BOUNDARY NOTED ABOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY WILL GET
HUNG UP, AND SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. WHILE
FORCING WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY ROBUST EITHER DAY, THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE, AND HEATING TO DRIVE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS--NO MORE THAN A 15 TO 20 PERCENT
POP, BUT JUST ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MURKY BY THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY FROM THE WED/THU TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP/TRAPPED ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF A BUILDING RIDGE. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RESULTING TROUGH, BUT AGREE ON ITS
PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS SOME SORT OF WEAK
TROUGHING OR UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST, AND THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR.
UNLESS MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE OR DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION, IT
IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20-POP PARADE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
DAYS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE AND THOSE WITH LOWER COVERAGE, BUT THOSE
DETAILS ARE TOO MESOSCALE TO RESOLVE AT THIS KIND OF TIME RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CLIMO-BASED,
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (AND LITTLE VARIATION
AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THESE ARE ACCEPTABLE WITH THE
EXPECTED PATTERN, SINCE THE TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE (AND HOTTER CONDITIONS) AT BAY.
BCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 182329 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY, ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, BECAUSE A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE THREE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON:
AN INITIAL FRONT NOW ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM KTUP TO VINEMONT/3A1 TO BETWEEN WINCHESTER/BGF AND KCHA,
AND A THIRD MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE 2ND BOUNDARY
IN NORTH ALABAMA, BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE NOW IN THE HUN CWFA. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE OFF-AND-ON RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 80S.
WHILE THE WETTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE PERIOD IS COMING TO AN END, WE
ARE NOT GOING TO BE TOTALLY DRY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ONCE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
ANY DECENT CLEARING. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DRIVE THE 3RD BOUNDARY NOTED ABOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY WILL GET
HUNG UP, AND SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. WHILE
FORCING WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY ROBUST EITHER DAY, THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE, AND HEATING TO DRIVE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS--NO MORE THAN A 15 TO 20 PERCENT
POP, BUT JUST ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MURKY BY THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY FROM THE WED/THU TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP/TRAPPED ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF A BUILDING RIDGE. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RESULTING TROUGH, BUT AGREE ON ITS
PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS SOME SORT OF WEAK
TROUGHING OR UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST, AND THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR.
UNLESS MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE OR DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION, IT
IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20-POP PARADE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
DAYS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE AND THOSE WITH LOWER COVERAGE, BUT THOSE
DETAILS ARE TOO MESOSCALE TO RESOLVE AT THIS KIND OF TIME RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CLIMO-BASED,
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (AND LITTLE VARIATION
AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THESE ARE ACCEPTABLE WITH THE
EXPECTED PATTERN, SINCE THE TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE (AND HOTTER CONDITIONS) AT BAY.
BCC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR THE PERIOD. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED CLEARING OF CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...MVFR FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY ARND 08Z AND
CONTINUE TO DROP VIS THRU THE EARLY MORNING. ATTM AM EXPECTING KMSL
TO SEE THE LOWER VISBYS (TO IFR/2SM AT TIMES) BUT IF MORE OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS DISSIPATE...FOG COULD BECOME MUCH THICKER AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL BE MONITORING EVENING TRENDS CLOSELY FOR UPDATES.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 182040
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY, ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, BECAUSE A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE THREE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON:
AN INITIAL FRONT NOW ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20, A SECONDARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM KTUP TO VINEMONT/3A1 TO BETWEEN WINCHESTER/BGF AND KCHA,
AND A THIRD MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE 2ND BOUNDARY
IN NORTH ALABAMA, BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE NOW IN THE HUN CWFA. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE OFF-AND-ON RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 80S.
WHILE THE WETTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE PERIOD IS COMING TO AN END, WE
ARE NOT GOING TO BE TOTALLY DRY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ONCE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
ANY DECENT CLEARING. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DRIVE THE 3RD BOUNDARY NOTED ABOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY WILL GET
HUNG UP, AND SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. WHILE
FORCING WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY ROBUST EITHER DAY, THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE, AND HEATING TO DRIVE A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS--NO MORE THAN A 15 TO 20 PERCENT
POP, BUT JUST ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MURKY BY THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY FROM THE WED/THU TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP/TRAPPED ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF A BUILDING RIDGE. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RESULTING TROUGH, BUT AGREE ON ITS
PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE. THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINS SOME SORT OF WEAK
TROUGHING OR UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST, AND THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR.
UNLESS MORE ROBUST SUBSIDENCE OR DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION, IT
IS TOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20-POP PARADE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
DAYS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE AND THOSE WITH LOWER COVERAGE, BUT THOSE
DETAILS ARE TOO MESOSCALE TO RESOLVE AT THIS KIND OF TIME RANGE.
TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE LARGELY CLIMO-BASED,
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (AND LITTLE VARIATION
AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THESE ARE ACCEPTABLE WITH THE
EXPECTED PATTERN, SINCE THE TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE (AND HOTTER CONDITIONS) AT BAY.
BCC
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER BOTH TAF SITES WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. ALTHOUGH SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED WITH
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BASED ON UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BRIEF IFR CIGS JUST BELOW 2000 FEET LOOK POSSIBLE...SO
INCLUDED THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 18/18Z AND 18/21Z AT KMSL AND
18/19Z AND 18/23Z AT KHSV. BY 19/03Z AT KMSL AND 19/04Z AT
KHSV...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. MFVR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND 19/12Z DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITONS WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL.
KTW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 65 91 67 92 / 20 20 10 20
SHOALS 65 90 66 91 / 10 20 10 20
VINEMONT 63 87 66 89 / 30 20 10 20
FAYETTEVILLE 64 86 67 89 / 20 20 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 64 88 67 88 / 30 20 10 20
FORT PAYNE 62 87 64 88 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181740 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
PREVIOUS RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
JACKSON...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HYDRO CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF SEWANEE TENNESSEE TO AROUND
MOULTON ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL EXIST WITH
LAPS DATA SHOWING LI VALUES AROUND -4 AND CAPE AROUND 300 J/KG.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN BMX AND EVEN NASHVILLE`S 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SECOND POST FRONTAL TROUGH EXISTS OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS
COULD HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE BELIEVE MAIN BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THIS MORNING...AS MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVER PUSHES BACK IN WITH
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO SOME LATE INSOLATION.
KTW
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER BOTH TAF SITES WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. ALTHOUGH SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED WITH
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BASED ON UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BRIEF IFR CIGS JUST BELOW 2000 FEET LOOK POSSIBLE...SO
INCLUDED THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 18/18Z AND 18/21Z AT KMSL AND
18/19Z AND 18/23Z AT KHSV. BY 19/03Z AT KMSL AND 19/04Z AT
KHSV...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. MFVR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND 19/12Z DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITONS WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL.
KTW
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181537 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...TO TWEAK POPS AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
JACKSON...MARSHALL...AND DEKALB COUNTIES COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HYDRO CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF SEWANEE TENNESSEE TO AROUND
MOULTON ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL EXIST WITH
LAPS DATA SHOWING LI VALUES AROUND -4 AND CAPE AROUND 300 J/KG.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN BMX AND EVEN NASHVILLE`S 12Z SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SECOND POST FRONTAL TROUGH EXISTS OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS
COULD HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE BELIEVE MAIN BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THIS MORNING...AS MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVER PUSHES BACK IN WITH
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S DUE TO SOME LATE INSOLATION.
KTW
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO LOWER END OF THE VFR
RANGE FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS INTO THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FURTHER IMPROVE
AFTER 00Z AT BOTH LOCATIONS. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR GROUPING FOR
FOG AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AFTER 09Z.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181142 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
WELL A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE NEEDED A LITTLE SOONER THAN
XPCTED NOW WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT
BECOMING MORE APPARENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. ANY REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
THE PROB THOUGH OF MULTIPLE AREAS/CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/TSTMS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY IS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINGERING
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO THE NW SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE PAST FEW HRS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS LATER TODAY LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED...AND LIKEWISE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED
SOME TODAY GIVEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE PROB THOUGH FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING WITHIN ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS STILL PRESENT...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS WELL
HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE FRONT SETTLING WELL
INTO THE AREA.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...HAVE KEPT CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO LOWER END OF THE VFR
RANGE FOR BOTH HSV AND MSL THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS INTO THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FURTHER IMPROVE
AFTER 00Z AT BOTH LOCATIONS. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR GROUPING FOR
FOG AT BOTH HSV AND MSL AFTER 09Z.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181031 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED AND RAIN CHANCES LOWERED FIRST PERIOD
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE NEEDED A LITTLE SOONER THAN
XPCTED NOW WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT
BECOMING MORE APPARENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. ANY REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
THE PROB THOUGH OF MULTIPLE AREAS/CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/TSTMS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY IS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINGERING
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO THE NW SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE PAST FEW HRS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS LATER TODAY LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED...AND LIKEWISE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED
SOME TODAY GIVEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE PROB THOUGH FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING WITHIN ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS STILL PRESENT...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS WELL
HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE FRONT SETTLING WELL
INTO THE AREA.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS... BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NWRN AL WILL APPROACH
KMSL AND PRODUCE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDS DUE TO +RA AND LOWERED
CIG. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN PSBL AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE
KHSV VCNTY BETWEEN 10-14Z PRODUCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE
THEN DECREASES IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH SITES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS, THEN FOLLOW WITH A VCSH BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS DURING THE PD.
KULA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 420 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
LATEST BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS FROM SRN MID TN SWD INTO N CNTRL AL
IS MAKING A GOOD PUSH TO THE E THIS EARLY TUE MORNING...AIDED BY A
CONTINUAL SURGE IN EWD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES. THIS LATEST UPPER
WAVE THOUGH MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END AS FAR AS THE ACTIVE/WET
WX PATTERN IMPACTING MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY OVER THE LAST 24-48 HR.
00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS THE RAINFALL DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT LATER THIS
MORNING...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM MID TN SWWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST
NAM MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT TRAVERSING ALONG/BEHIND THE ONCOMING FRONT.
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY THOUGH IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR/DVM GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE MIDSOUTH REGION FROM THE WNW. IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC TO BUY OFF COMPLETELY ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GIVEN THE
PROB FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...AS LATENT
HEATING EFFECTS/AMPLE MOISTURE DEPTH INTERACT WITH LINGERING UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO THE W. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ADVERTISE A DIMINISHING
TREND IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG/BEHIND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. LATEST
ECMWF SEEMS TO OFFER A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/NAM
SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST THINKING.
IN ANY CASE...GIVEN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINING VERY
TROPICAL IN NATURE...ADDITIONAL TSTM CELLS/CLUSTERS LATER TODAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR AS WELL COUPLED WITH THE PROB OF LINGERING UPPER WAVES
STRENGTHENING AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE W...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CNTRL/WRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HOLDS TRUE WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY XPCTED AROUND THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKENS...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR SOME/ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST STARTING TONIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC REGIONS WED MAY ALLOW FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AIR SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA...WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO RELATIVELY QUIET WX INTO FRI. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
ANY SIG MOISTURE RETURN/FOCUS MECH LOOKS TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ISO CAT AT BEST.
09
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 180920
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
420 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS FROM SRN MID TN SWD INTO N CNTRL AL
IS MAKING A GOOD PUSH TO THE E THIS EARLY TUE MORNING...AIDED BY A
CONTINUAL SURGE IN EWD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES. THIS LATEST UPPER
WAVE THOUGH MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END AS FAR AS THE ACTIVE/WET
WX PATTERN IMPACTING MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY OVER THE LAST 24-48 HR.
00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS THE RAINFALL DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT LATER THIS
MORNING...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM MID TN SWWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST
NAM MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT TRAVERSING ALONG/BEHIND THE ONCOMING FRONT.
IR/WV SAT IMAGERY THOUGH IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR/DVM GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE MIDSOUTH REGION FROM THE WNW. IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC TO BUY OFF COMPLETELY ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GIVEN THE
PROB FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...AS LATENT
HEATING EFFECTS/AMPLE MOISTURE DEPTH INTERACT WITH LINGERING UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO THE W. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ADVERTISE A DIMINISHING
TREND IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG/BEHIND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. LATEST
ECMWF SEEMS TO OFFER A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/NAM
SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST THINKING.
IN ANY CASE...GIVEN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINING VERY
TROPICAL IN NATURE...ADDITIONAL TSTM CELLS/CLUSTERS LATER TODAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR AS WELL COUPLED WITH THE PROB OF LINGERING UPPER WAVES
STRENGTHENING AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE W...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CNTRL/WRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HOLDS TRUE WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY XPCTED AROUND THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKENS...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR SOME/ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST STARTING TONIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC REGIONS WED MAY ALLOW FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AIR SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA...WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO RELATIVELY QUIET WX INTO FRI. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
ANY SIG MOISTURE RETURN/FOCUS MECH LOOKS TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ISO CAT AT BEST.
09
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS... BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NWRN AL WILL APPROACH
KMSL AND PRODUCE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDS DUE TO +RA AND LOWERED
CIG. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN PSBL AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE
KHSV VCNTY BETWEEN 10-14Z PRODUCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE
THEN DECREASES IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH SITES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS, THEN FOLLOW WITH A VCSH BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS DURING THE PD.
KULA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 84 65 90 65 / 80 30 10 10
SHOALS 85 65 91 64 / 70 20 10 10
VINEMONT 82 64 88 67 / 80 30 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 82 64 87 63 / 80 20 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 81 65 87 62 / 90 30 10 10
FORT PAYNE 82 63 88 62 / 90 30 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 180532 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECEDED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, AND NO LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED IN OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.
RESIDUAL ANVIL PRECIP WILL PERSIST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN COVERAGE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM JUSTIFIED IN NWRN
AL INTO SRN TN.
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST, CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR A
DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THIS CENTER, CLUSTERS OF +RA PRODUCING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM FAR NRN MS INTO SWRN TN. INITIALLY, MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NW OF THE NW TIP OF AL. WITH TIME HOWEVER, I EXPECT CONVECTION
TO BUILD SWWD AS THE EARLIER NAM SUGGESTS, AND PIVOT NEWD INTO NWRN
AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z, AND WE`LL SEE
WHAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IN A SHORT WHILE. 850 MB ANALYSIS AND
00Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC FLOW INDICATE A LLJ OF 20-25KT ACROSS CENTRAL AR
INTO NRN AL. THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL GIVEN THE GREATER DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS TO OUR S AND THE COLUMN IS QUITE MOIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPETITIVE STORMS, AND THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST IN MIDDLE INTO SWRN TN AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN AL OVERNIGHT.
THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT SEWD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING.
KULA
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NWRN AL WILL APPROACH
KMSL AND PRODUCE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDS DUE TO +RA AND LOWERED
CIG. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN PSBL AS WELL. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE
KHSV VCNTY BETWEEN 10-14Z PRODUCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE
THEN DECREASES IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH SITES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS, THEN FOLLOW WITH A VCSH BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS DURING THE PD.
KULA
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 180221
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
921 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS AND WFO COORDINATION, WILL BE HOISTING A FFA
FOR TONIGHT AND TUE FOR SRN TN AND NWRN AL.
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS... CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, FQT
LIGHTNING AND +RA WILL OCCUR IN THE KHSV VCNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NEAR TERM
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA AT KMSL IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN MS AND
WRN TN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL WILL BE 03-06Z AT KMSL AND 05-08Z
AT KHSV. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS IN +RA ARE QUITE PSBL AGAIN, AND SOME
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHRA AND TSRA.
AK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECEDED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, AND NO LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED IN OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.
RESIDUAL ANVIL PRECIP WILL PERSIST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN COVERAGE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM JUSTIFIED IN NWRN
AL INTO SRN TN.
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST, CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR A
DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THIS CENTER, CLUSTERS OF +RA PRODUCING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM FAR NRN MS INTO SWRN TN. INITIALLY, MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NW OF THE NW TIP OF AL. WITH TIME HOWEVER, I EXPECT CONVECTION
TO BUILD SWWD AS THE EARLIER NAM SUGGESTS, AND PIVOT NEWD INTO NWRN
AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z, AND WE`LL SEE
WHAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IN A SHORT WHILE. 850 MB ANALYSIS AND
00Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC FLOW INDICATE A LLJ OF 20-25KT ACROSS CENTRAL AR
INTO NRN AL. THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL GIVEN THE GREATER DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS TO OUR S AND THE COLUMN IS QUITE MOIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPETITIVE STORMS, AND THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST IN MIDDLE INTO SWRN TN AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN AL OVERNIGHT.
THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT SEWD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING.
KULA
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 180159 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
859 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
TO ADDRESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WE MAY LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT IN NERN AL
AFTER THE CURRENT RAIN AREA THERE ENDS OR MOVES NE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECEDED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, AND NO LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED IN OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.
RESIDUAL ANVIL PRECIP WILL PERSIST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN COVERAGE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM JUSTIFIED IN NWRN
AL INTO SRN TN.
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST, CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR A
DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THIS CENTER, CLUSTERS OF +RA PRODUCING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM FAR NRN MS INTO SWRN TN. INITIALLY, MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NW OF THE NW TIP OF AL. WITH TIME HOWEVER, I EXPECT CONVECTION
TO BUILD SWWD AS THE EARLIER NAM SUGGESTS, AND PIVOT NEWD INTO NWRN
AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z, AND WE`LL SEE
WHAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IN A SHORT WHILE. 850 MB ANALYSIS AND
00Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC FLOW INDICATE A LLJ OF 20-25KT ACROSS CENTRAL AR
INTO NRN AL. THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL GIVEN THE GREATER DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS TO OUR S AND THE COLUMN IS QUITE MOIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPETITIVE STORMS, AND THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST IN MIDDLE INTO SWRN TN AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN AL OVERNIGHT.
THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT SEWD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING.
KULA
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS... CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, FQT
LIGHTNING AND +RA WILL OCCUR IN THE KHSV VCNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NEAR TERM
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA AT KMSL IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN MS AND
WRN TN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL WILL BE 03-06Z AT KMSL AND 05-08Z
AT KHSV. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS IN +RA ARE QUITE PSBL AGAIN, AND SOME
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHRA AND TSRA.
AK
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 180159 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
859 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
TO ADDRESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WE MAY LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT IN NERN AL
AFTER THE CURRENT RAIN AREA THERE ENDS OR MOVES NE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECEDED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, AND NO LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED IN OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.
RESIDUAL ANVIL PRECIP WILL PERSIST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN COVERAGE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM JUSTIFIED IN NWRN
AL INTO SRN TN.
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST, CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR A
DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THIS CENTER, CLUSTERS OF +RA PRODUCING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM FAR NRN MS INTO SWRN TN. INITIALLY, MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NW OF OF THE NW TIP OF AL. WITH TIME HOWEVER, I EXPECT CONVECTION
TO BUILD SWWD AS THE EARLIER NAM SUGGESTS, AND PIVOT NEWD INTO NWRN
AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z, AND WE`LL SEE
WHAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IN A SHORT WHILE. 850 MB ANALYSIS AND
00Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC FLOW INDICATE A LLJ OF 20-25KT ACROSS CENTRAL AR
INTO NRN AL. THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL GIVEN THE GREATER DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS TO OUR S AND THE COLUMN IS QUITE MOIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPETITIVE STORMS, AND THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST IN MIDDLE INTO SWRN TN AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN AL OVERNIGHT.
THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT SEWD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING.
KULA
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS... CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, FQT
LIGHTNING AND +RA WILL OCCUR IN THE KHSV VCNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NEAR TERM
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA AT KMSL IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN MS AND
WRN TN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL WILL BE 03-06Z AT KMSL AND 05-08Z
AT KHSV. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS IN +RA ARE QUITE PSBL AGAIN, AND SOME
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHRA AND TSRA.
AK
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 172242 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
QUITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM REMNANT CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL MS CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED, MAINLY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
IN ADDITION, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO ACCOMPANIED THESE STORMS AS
THEY TRAVERSED THE AREA, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF NUISANCE/FLASH
FLOODING REPORTED. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A 500MB
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS.
BEHIND THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE/OPEN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS AR/MO. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY TOMORROW
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST OF THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING IN PLACE TO WARRANT A STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADD TO THAT AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 150%
OF NORMAL, AND A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE ON SOUNDINGS), AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. RAIN RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR
WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY, AND WITH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TOMORROW, AM LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF THIS. FOR
THIS REASON, "HEAVY RAINFALL" WAS OFFICIALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO (PLUS TRAINING CELLS) MAY
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY EVEN RIVER/CREEK
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH EVERY
ROUND OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FINALLY ENDING THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ABRUPT END
TO THE CONVECTION (ENDING AS SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY). WITH THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA, MORNING LOWS THURSDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AN UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, TRANSLATING TO WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION MORE INTO A
SUMMERTIME REGIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET
EACH EVENING.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, FQT
LIGHTNING AND +RA WILL OCCUR IN THE KHSV VCNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NEAR TERM
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA AT KMSL IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN MS AND
WRN TN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL WILL BE 03-06Z AT KMSL AND 05-08Z
AT KHSV. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS IN +RA ARE QUITE PSBL AGAIN, AND SOME
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHRA AND TSRA.
AK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
QUITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM REMNANT CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL MS CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED, MAINLY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
IN ADDITION, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO ACCOMPANIED THESE STORMS AS
THEY TRAVERSED THE AREA, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF NUISANCE/FLASH
FLOODING REPORTED. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A 500MB
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS.
BEHIND THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE/OPEN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS AR/MO. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY TOMORROW
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST OF THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING IN PLACE TO WARRANT A STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADD TO THAT AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 150%
OF NORMAL, AND A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE ON SOUNDINGS), AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. RAIN RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR
WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY, AND WITH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TOMORROW, AM LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF THIS. FOR
THIS REASON, "HEAVY RAINFALL" WAS OFFICIALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO (PLUS TRAINING CELLS) MAY
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY EVEN RIVER/CREEK
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH EVERY
ROUND OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FINALLY ENDING THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ABRUPT END
TO THE CONVECTION (ENDING AS SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY). WITH THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA, MORNING LOWS THURSDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AN UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, TRANSLATING TO WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION MORE INTO A
SUMMERTIME REGIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET
EACH EVENING.
12
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 172103
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM REMNANT CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL MS CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED, MAINLY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
IN ADDITION, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO ACCOMPANIED THESE STORMS AS
THEY TRAVERSED THE AREA, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF NUISANCE/FLASH
FLOODING REPORTED. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A 500MB
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS.
BEHIND THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE/OPEN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS AR/MO. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY TOMORROW
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST OF THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIND SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING IN PLACE TO WARRANT A STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADD TO THAT AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 150%
OF NORMAL, AND A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE ON SOUNDINGS), AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. RAIN RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR
WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY, AND WITH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TOMORROW, AM LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF THIS. FOR
THIS REASON, "HEAVY RAINFALL" WAS OFFICIALLY ADDED TO THE GRIDS
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO (PLUS TRAINING CELLS) MAY
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY EVEN RIVER/CREEK
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH EVERY
ROUND OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FINALLY ENDING THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ABRUPT END
TO THE CONVECTION (ENDING AS SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY). WITH THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA, MORNING LOWS THURSDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AN UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, TRANSLATING TO WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY TRANSITION MORE INTO A
SUMMERTIME REGIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET
EACH EVENING.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...A BAND OF SCATTERED TSRA WILL IMPACT BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV THROUGH 19-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD CRASH HARD BRIEFLY
WITH THE STORMS, BUT NOT FOR VERY LONG. TSRA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS WILL NOT BE AS CERTAIN,
SO WILL STICK WITH VCTS AFTER 20Z. AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT,
STARTING AS EARLY AS 08Z AT KMSL AND 11Z AT KHSV. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF IMPACT IS HIGH, SO HAVE MADE
A PREVAILING MVFR TSRA GROUP WITH THAT TIMING AS A BEST GUESS FOR
NOW.
BCC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 71 83 68 89 / 90 90 30 10
SHOALS 72 85 67 90 / 90 90 20 10
VINEMONT 69 82 66 87 / 90 90 30 10
FAYETTEVILLE 70 82 66 86 / 90 90 30 10
ALBERTVILLE 68 81 66 86 / 80 90 40 10
FORT PAYNE 67 81 65 86 / 80 90 40 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 171737 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING ACROSS MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHEAST AL, WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HSV. THERE ARE CLEARLY SOME BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AT WORK AS WELL,
GIVEN THE TRAINING ECHOES NOTED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MOORE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. ROUND 2 OF STORMS IS NOTED
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS, ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A THIRD, MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OK,
AND WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN MS
WILL COMPLETELY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO AL. THE FORCING IS
ROBUST ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS WEST OF I-65,
PARTICULARLY SINCE THAT AREA IS LIKELY WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE ORIENTATION WILL REMAIN THE SAME. WE
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP IN
LIGHT OF HOW MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS, HOW MOIST THE
ENVIRONMENT IS (BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATES ABOUT 1.9 INCHES PW, OR
ALMOST 150% OF NORMAL), AND HOW QUICKLY MINOR FLOODING DEVELOPED IN
LYNCHBURG. THE EXISTING HWO MENTIONS THIS POSSIBILITY, AND WE WILL
CERTAINLY CONTINUE MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NUDGED DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR SO, ANTICIPATING
THAT WESTERN AREAS ARE NEAR THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS, AND THAT EASTERN
AREAS WILL WARM UP AS THEY DAY GOES ON BEFORE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP.
BCC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...A BAND OF SCATTERED TSRA WILL IMPACT BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV THROUGH 19-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD CRASH HARD BRIEFLY
WITH THE STORMS, BUT NOT FOR VERY LONG. TSRA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS WILL NOT BE AS CERTAIN,
SO WILL STICK WITH VCTS AFTER 20Z. AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT,
STARTING AS EARLY AS 08Z AT KMSL AND 11Z AT KHSV. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF IMPACT IS HIGH, SO HAVE MADE
A PREVAILING MVFR TSRA GROUP WITH THAT TIMING AS A BEST GUESS FOR
NOW.
BCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 171528 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1028 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. MODEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING ACROSS MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHEAST AL, WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HSV. THERE ARE CLEARLY SOME BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AT WORK AS WELL,
GIVEN THE TRAINING ECHOES NOTED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MOORE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. ROUND 2 OF STORMS IS NOTED
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS, ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A THIRD, MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OK,
AND WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN MS
WILL COMPLETELY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO AL. THE FORCING IS
ROBUST ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS WEST OF I-65,
PARTICULARLY SINCE THAT AREA IS LIKELY WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE ORIENTATION WILL REMAIN THE SAME. WE
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP IN
LIGHT OF HOW MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS, HOW MOIST THE
ENVIRONMENT IS (BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATES ABOUT 1.9 INCHES PW, OR
ALMOST 150% OF NORMAL), AND HOW QUICKLY MINOR FLOODING DEVELOPED IN
LYNCHBURG. THE EXISTING HWO MENTIONS THIS POSSIBILITY, AND WE WILL
CERTAINLY CONTINUE MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NUDGED DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR SO, ANTICIPATING
THAT WESTERN AREAS ARE NEAR THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS, AND THAT EASTERN
AREAS WILL WARM UP AS THEY DAY GOES ON BEFORE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP.
BCC
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE XPCTED LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CAT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FAR AS THE EXACT
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CB LAYER AFTER 18Z...AS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACH FROM THE W.
09
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 509 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT
HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...TO THE NORTH OF
A ZONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG 25N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES...WHICH AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY INITIATING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM/MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...ALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AND WILL HOLD POPS IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT GUIDANCE FROM
THE NSSL WRF/WRF-NMM AND HRRR. GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF...ALL INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND LINGERING OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY MORNING -- BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY...WE ARE EXPECTING ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE INDUCES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH A MODEST
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE EPISODES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CONVECTION
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA. A STRONGER VORT MAX --
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT -- WILL COMBINE
WITH PRONOUNCED HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INDUCE
MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...AND THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY ALLOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE
ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR UVM WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH OUR LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE TO EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 171145 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 509 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT
HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...TO THE NORTH OF
A ZONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG 25N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES...WHICH AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY INITIATING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM/MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...ALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AND WILL HOLD POPS IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT GUIDANCE FROM
THE NSSL WRF/WRF-NMM AND HRRR. GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF...ALL INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND LINGERING OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY MORNING -- BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY...WE ARE EXPECTING ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE INDUCES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH A MODEST
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE EPISODES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CONVECTION
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA. A STRONGER VORT MAX --
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT -- WILL COMBINE
WITH PRONOUNCED HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INDUCE
MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...AND THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY ALLOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE
ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR UVM WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH OUR LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE TO EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE XPCTED LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CAT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FAR AS THE EXACT
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CB LAYER AFTER 18Z...AS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACH FROM THE W.
09
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 171009
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
509 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT
HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...TO THE NORTH OF
A ZONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG 25N LATITUDE.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES...WHICH AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY INITIATING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM/MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...ALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AND WILL HOLD POPS IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT GUIDANCE FROM
THE NSSL WRF/WRF-NMM AND HRRR. GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF...ALL INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND LINGERING OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY MORNING -- BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY...WE ARE EXPECTING ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE INDUCES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH A MODEST
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE EPISODES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CONVECTION
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA. A STRONGER VORT MAX --
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT -- WILL COMBINE
WITH PRONOUNCED HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO INDUCE
MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...AND THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY ALLOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE
ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR UVM WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH OUR LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MORE OF A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE TO EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND WILL REDUCE
VSBY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN A SOLID DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHRA OR TSRA IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF
KMSL AND KHSV THRU MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA
IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A CB LAYER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL UNTIL
BETTER COVERAGE AND TIMING DETAILS CAN BE DETERMINED.
AK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 88 70 83 68 / 60 80 90 40
SHOALS 89 71 85 67 / 60 80 90 20
VINEMONT 86 68 82 66 / 60 80 90 40
FAYETTEVILLE 84 69 82 66 / 60 80 90 40
ALBERTVILLE 86 67 81 66 / 60 70 90 40
FORT PAYNE 84 66 81 65 / 60 60 90 40
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
|
