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000
FXUS64 KHUN 311118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 311118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310844
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
SHOALS        85  65  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
VINEMONT      84  65  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  82  64  83  65 /  20  20  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   82  64  83  66 /  20  20  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  63  83  65 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310844
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
SHOALS        85  65  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
VINEMONT      84  65  85  66 /  20  20  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  82  64  83  65 /  20  20  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   82  64  83  66 /  20  20  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  63  83  65 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310517 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
QUIET WX AGAIN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA THIS LATE WED
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WNW AS AN UPPER SHRTWV TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AREA RADARS W ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS PERHAPS CROSSING
THE MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
IS REACHING THE SFC INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TN/MS. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOME SPOTS THX IN PART
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ENE.
THIS VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALBEIT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL MAKE THIS TRANSITION SOMEWHAT TOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE...TEMPS
FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT HEADING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 60. THIS STILL WILL
TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY COOL THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOTHING OF
THE MAGNITUDE SEEN WITH THE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO HAVE THIS PATTERN REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL...AND OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR EDITS ON SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 310517 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 914 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
QUIET WX AGAIN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA THIS LATE WED
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WNW AS AN UPPER SHRTWV TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AREA RADARS W ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS PERHAPS CROSSING
THE MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
IS REACHING THE SFC INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TN/MS. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOME SPOTS THX IN PART
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ENE.
THIS VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALBEIT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL MAKE THIS TRANSITION SOMEWHAT TOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE...TEMPS
FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT HEADING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 60. THIS STILL WILL
TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY COOL THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOTHING OF
THE MAGNITUDE SEEN WITH THE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO HAVE THIS PATTERN REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL...AND OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR EDITS ON SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE PREDOM XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WNW...AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE ENE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 310214 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX AGAIN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA THIS LATE WED
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WNW AS AN UPPER SHRTWV TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AREA RADARS W ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS PERHAPS CROSSING
THE MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
IS REACHING THE SFC INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TN/MS. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOME SPOTS THX IN PART
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ENE.
THIS VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALBEIT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL MAKE THIS TRANSITION SOMEWHAT TOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE...TEMPS
FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT HEADING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 60. THIS STILL WILL
TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY COOL THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOTHING OF
THE MAGNITUDE SEEN WITH THE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO HAVE THIS PATTERN REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL...AND OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR EDITS ON SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WNW...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC SHOULD
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOM LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NE.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
NWLY FLOW WAS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING SEWD THRU KS/OK PRODUCING A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN THAT WAS SPREADING INTO SRN MO AND WRN AR.
NELY SFC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SOUTH AND A SFC LOW PARKED OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL. SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE TN VALLEY THRU THURSDAY AND
SHOULD KEEP TWO PRECIP AREAS HALTED TO OUR SW/W AND E/SE.
NEVERTHELESS, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, SO MORNING LOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TO OUR SW ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND TO OUR SE IN GA/ERN
AL AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. IN FACT, SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SMOKIES/SRN APP MTNS OF
GA/TN/NC. MEANWHILE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFTING
ZONES, SO EXACT POP AND AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST THREAT
OF RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LIFTS NE INTO NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-1000 J/KG CAPE SATURDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN
FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
GOING SCHC SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING TREND AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROF MEANDERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 302341 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
NWLY FLOW WAS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING SEWD THRU KS/OK PRODUCING A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN THAT WAS SPREADING INTO SRN MO AND WRN AR.
NELY SFC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SOUTH AND A SFC LOW PARKED OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL. SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE TN VALLEY THRU THURSDAY AND
SHOULD KEEP TWO PRECIP AREAS HALTED TO OUR SW/W AND E/SE.
NEVERTHELESS, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, SO MORNING LOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TO OUR SW ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND TO OUR SE IN GA/ERN
AL AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. IN FACT, SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SMOKIES/SRN APP MTNS OF
GA/TN/NC. MEANWHILE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFTING
ZONES, SO EXACT POP AND AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST THREAT
OF RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LIFTS NE INTO NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-1000 J/KG CAPE SATURDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN
FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
GOING SCHC SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING TREND AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROF MEANDERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WNW...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC SHOULD
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOM LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301826
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NWLY FLOW WAS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING SEWD THRU KS/OK PRDODUCING A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN THAT WAS SPREADING INTO SRN MO AND WRN AR.
NELY SFC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SOUTH AND A SFC LOW PARKED OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL. SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE TN VALLEY THRU THURSDAY AND
SHOULD KEEP TWO PRECIP AREAS HALTED TO OUR SW/W AND E/SE.
NEVERTHELESS, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SO MORNING LOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TO OUR SW ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND TO OUR SE IN GA/ERN
AL AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. IN FACT, SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SMOKIES/SRN APP MTNS OF
GA/TN/NC. MEANWHILE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFTING
ZONES, SO EXACT POP AND AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST THREAT
OF RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LIFTS NE INTO NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-1000 J/KG CAPE SATURDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN
FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
GOING SCHC SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING TREND AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROF MEANDERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLACK SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
AFTN CU DIMINISH AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  82  65  83 /  10  10  30  50
SHOALS        61  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  30
VINEMONT      61  82  65  82 /  10  10  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  61  81  63  81 /  10  10  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   60  81  64  80 /  10  10  30  50
FORT PAYNE    58  81  63  80 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301826
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NWLY FLOW WAS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING SEWD THRU KS/OK PRDODUCING A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN THAT WAS SPREADING INTO SRN MO AND WRN AR.
NELY SFC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SOUTH AND A SFC LOW PARKED OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL. SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE TN VALLEY THRU THURSDAY AND
SHOULD KEEP TWO PRECIP AREAS HALTED TO OUR SW/W AND E/SE.
NEVERTHELESS, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SO MORNING LOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TO OUR SW ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND TO OUR SE IN GA/ERN
AL AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. IN FACT, SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SMOKIES/SRN APP MTNS OF
GA/TN/NC. MEANWHILE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFTING
ZONES, SO EXACT POP AND AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST THREAT
OF RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LIFTS NE INTO NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-1000 J/KG CAPE SATURDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN
FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
GOING SCHC SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING TREND AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROF MEANDERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLACK SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
AFTN CU DIMINISH AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  82  65  83 /  10  10  30  50
SHOALS        61  83  64  85 /  10  10  30  30
VINEMONT      61  82  65  82 /  10  10  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  61  81  63  81 /  10  10  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   60  81  64  80 /  10  10  30  50
FORT PAYNE    58  81  63  80 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY IN THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM THE NW WITH AN ADDITIONAL CU FIELD
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP US
DRY FOR TODAY BUT DID ADJUST THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALSO SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLACK SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
AFTN CU DIMINISH AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY IN THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM THE NW WITH AN ADDITIONAL CU FIELD
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP US
DRY FOR TODAY BUT DID ADJUST THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALSO SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLACK SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
AFTN CU DIMINISH AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301607 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY IN THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM THE NW WITH AN ADDITIONAL CU FIELD
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP US
DRY FOR TODAY BUT DID ADJUST THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALSO SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ALSO
MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE ARND 8H...ALONG WITH MID
70S CONVECTIVE TEMPS...FOR A SCT CU FIELD BY THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT
EXPECT MAINLY CI CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301607 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1107 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY IN THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM THE NW WITH AN ADDITIONAL CU FIELD
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP US
DRY FOR TODAY BUT DID ADJUST THE DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALSO SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ALSO
MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE ARND 8H...ALONG WITH MID
70S CONVECTIVE TEMPS...FOR A SCT CU FIELD BY THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT
EXPECT MAINLY CI CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301116
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
RECORD LOWS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THAT
HIGH- LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT BACK IN
RESPONSE TO A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKER
PRECEDING WAVE WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED THICKENING/LOWERING OF CIRROSTRATUS
AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RESULTING IN ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AND SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD AND
CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AS THIS
OCCURS ELEVATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RATHER
QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS GENERATED BY
BOTH THE ISENTROPIC PROCESSES AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A SWATH
OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE INCREASE IN
PWATS TO 1.5+ INCHES TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE
WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...WITH AN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH -- FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON THURSDAY -- MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR A REGENERATION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW ALOFT...HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE ANCHORING CYCLONE FOR THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
A LINGERING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH STEERING CURRENTS
ALOFT FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH LOOSES DEFINITION AND A
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION /PWATS FALLING BELOW 1 IN ACROSS THE NORTH BY MONDAY/. DUE TO
LINGERING PRESENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOW LOOKING WARMER AND DRIER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ALSO
MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE ARND 8H...ALONG WITH MID
70S CONVECTIVE TEMPS...FOR A SCT CU FIELD BY THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT
EXPECT MAINLY CI CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 301043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
RECORD LOWS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THAT
HIGH- LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT BACK IN
RESPONSE TO A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKER
PRECEDING WAVE WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED THICKENING/LOWERING OF CIRROSTRATUS
AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RESULTING IN ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AND SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD AND
CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AS THIS
OCCURS ELEVATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RATHER
QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS GENERATED BY
BOTH THE ISENTROPIC PROCESSES AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A SWATH
OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE INCREASE IN
PWATS TO 1.5+ INCHES TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE
WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...WITH AN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH -- FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON THURSDAY -- MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR A REGENERATION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW ALOFT...HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE ANCHORING CYCLONE FOR THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
A LINGERING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH STEERING CURRENTS
ALOFT FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH LOOSES DEFINITION AND A
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION /PWATS FALLING BELOW 1 IN ACROSS THE NORTH BY MONDAY/. DUE TO
LINGERING PRESENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOW LOOKING WARMER AND DRIER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING EWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  63  82  65 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        83  62  82  64 /   0  10  30  40
VINEMONT      83  62  82  65 /   0  10  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  82  60  82  63 /   0  10  20  50
ALBERTVILLE   81  62  79  64 /   0  10  20  50
FORT PAYNE    83  59  82  63 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 301043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
RECORD LOWS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IR SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THAT
HIGH- LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT BACK IN
RESPONSE TO A 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKER
PRECEDING WAVE WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED THICKENING/LOWERING OF CIRROSTRATUS
AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA BY TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER RESULTING IN ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AND SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD AND
CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND AS THIS
OCCURS ELEVATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RATHER
QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS GENERATED BY
BOTH THE ISENTROPIC PROCESSES AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A SWATH
OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON -- WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE INCREASE IN
PWATS TO 1.5+ INCHES TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE
WAVE WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...WITH AN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH -- FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON THURSDAY -- MAY PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR A REGENERATION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW ALOFT...HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THIS WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE ANCHORING CYCLONE FOR THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
A LINGERING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH STEERING CURRENTS
ALOFT FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING...AS THE INVERTED TROUGH LOOSES DEFINITION AND A
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION /PWATS FALLING BELOW 1 IN ACROSS THE NORTH BY MONDAY/. DUE TO
LINGERING PRESENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT...
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOW LOOKING WARMER AND DRIER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING EWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  63  82  65 /   0  10  20  50
SHOALS        83  62  82  64 /   0  10  30  40
VINEMONT      83  62  82  65 /   0  10  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  82  60  82  63 /   0  10  20  50
ALBERTVILLE   81  62  79  64 /   0  10  20  50
FORT PAYNE    83  59  82  63 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 300523 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
QUIET WX PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS TUE EVENING UNDER
PREDOM CLR SKIES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH REGIONS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
NLY FLOW PERSISTING IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS OUT OF THE
NNW. WITH DEW PT TRENDS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S RANGE...IT`S
REASONABLE TO XPCT TEMPS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY FALLING HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH SFC WINDS DECOUPLING OR REMAINING LIGHT.
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STOUT NWLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN
WELL IN HAND...WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE BY WED MORNING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING EWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 300523 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
QUIET WX PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS TUE EVENING UNDER
PREDOM CLR SKIES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH REGIONS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
NLY FLOW PERSISTING IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS OUT OF THE
NNW. WITH DEW PT TRENDS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S RANGE...IT`S
REASONABLE TO XPCT TEMPS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY FALLING HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH SFC WINDS DECOUPLING OR REMAINING LIGHT.
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STOUT NWLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN
WELL IN HAND...WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE BY WED MORNING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING EWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300157 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
857 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS TUE EVENING UNDER
PREDOM CLR SKIES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH REGIONS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
NLY FLOW PERSISTING IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS OUT OF THE
NNW. WITH DEW PT TRENDS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S RANGE...IT`S
REASONABLE TO XPCT TEMPS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY FALLING HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH SFC WINDS DECOUPLING OR REMAINING LIGHT.
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STOUT NWLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN
WELL IN HAND...WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE BY WED MORNING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
IT IS AFTER 3 PM ON JULY 29TH, AND HSV HAS FINALLY HIT 80 DEGREES FOR
THE DAY. HSV WILL GET CLOSE TO TYING ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WHILE MSL, WHICH IS STILL JUST 79 AT LAST
CHECK, STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF TYING ITS RECORD. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ACROSS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS, AND
THESE LOW DEWPOINTS CORRESPONDED WELL TO A DIMINISHED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM SMITH LAKE INTO EAST TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS: WILL WE BREAK ANY RECORDS? WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UNDER SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS AND TEMPERATURES STILL
MOSTLY BELOW 80, HAVE UNDERCUT NAM AND GFS MOS AND TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF MOS. THE NUMBERS PROPOSED BELOW WOULD EASILY BREAK
RECORDS AT HSV AND COME CLOSE AT MSL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
LIGHT CIRRUS COULD DRIFT IN LATER, WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST A
COOLER FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHING, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL EASE, ALLOWING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE RED RIVER & LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING A
SIZABLE SWATH OF QPF OVER OK/AR/LA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT GET
GOING HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE QPF AND POPS SEEM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT THE POP FORECAST WILL BE LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, AND IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WILL BE VASTLY OVERDONE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL
TREND TOWARD/JUST BELOW THE COOLER ECMWF MOS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK INTO CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY, LESS-DEFINED TROUGH.
THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GREATER
MOISTURE AMID SW FLOW TO THE EAST, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AMID NW FLOW
TO THE WEST. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH, AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION IS NOT AS GOOD. THE
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COMPROMISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT GET TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN UNTIL
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BASED ON VERIFICATION PERFORMANCE, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE GFSX MOS FOR HIGHS, AND 1-3 BELOW
FOR LOWS.

BCC

&&

.CLIMATE...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
RECORDS FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THE 31ST:

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (TODAY):
HUNTSVILLE 81/2006 - MUSCLE SHOALS 79/2003

RECORD LOW (TONIGHT):
HUNTSVILLE 60/1914 - MUSCLE SHOALS 56/1914

RECORD LOW (31ST):
HUNTSVILLE 58/1965 - MUSCLE SHOALS 55/1965

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 300157 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
857 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS TUE EVENING UNDER
PREDOM CLR SKIES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID
SOUTH REGIONS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
NLY FLOW PERSISTING IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS OUT OF THE
NNW. WITH DEW PT TRENDS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S RANGE...IT`S
REASONABLE TO XPCT TEMPS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY FALLING HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH SFC WINDS DECOUPLING OR REMAINING LIGHT.
A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STOUT NWLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE THIS OVERALL WX PATTERN
WELL IN HAND...WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE BY WED MORNING.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
IT IS AFTER 3 PM ON JULY 29TH, AND HSV HAS FINALLY HIT 80 DEGREES FOR
THE DAY. HSV WILL GET CLOSE TO TYING ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WHILE MSL, WHICH IS STILL JUST 79 AT LAST
CHECK, STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF TYING ITS RECORD. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ACROSS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS, AND
THESE LOW DEWPOINTS CORRESPONDED WELL TO A DIMINISHED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM SMITH LAKE INTO EAST TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS: WILL WE BREAK ANY RECORDS? WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UNDER SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS AND TEMPERATURES STILL
MOSTLY BELOW 80, HAVE UNDERCUT NAM AND GFS MOS AND TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF MOS. THE NUMBERS PROPOSED BELOW WOULD EASILY BREAK
RECORDS AT HSV AND COME CLOSE AT MSL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
LIGHT CIRRUS COULD DRIFT IN LATER, WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST A
COOLER FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHING, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL EASE, ALLOWING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE RED RIVER & LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING A
SIZABLE SWATH OF QPF OVER OK/AR/LA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT GET
GOING HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE QPF AND POPS SEEM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT THE POP FORECAST WILL BE LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, AND IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WILL BE VASTLY OVERDONE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL
TREND TOWARD/JUST BELOW THE COOLER ECMWF MOS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK INTO CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY, LESS-DEFINED TROUGH.
THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GREATER
MOISTURE AMID SW FLOW TO THE EAST, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AMID NW FLOW
TO THE WEST. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH, AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION IS NOT AS GOOD. THE
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COMPROMISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT GET TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN UNTIL
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BASED ON VERIFICATION PERFORMANCE, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE GFSX MOS FOR HIGHS, AND 1-3 BELOW
FOR LOWS.

BCC

&&

.CLIMATE...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
RECORDS FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THE 31ST:

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (TODAY):
HUNTSVILLE 81/2006 - MUSCLE SHOALS 79/2003

RECORD LOW (TONIGHT):
HUNTSVILLE 60/1914 - MUSCLE SHOALS 56/1914

RECORD LOW (31ST):
HUNTSVILLE 58/1965 - MUSCLE SHOALS 55/1965

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 292321 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
IT IS AFTER 3 PM ON JULY 29TH, AND HSV HAS FINALLY HIT 80 DEGREES FOR
THE DAY. HSV WILL GET CLOSE TO TYING ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WHILE MSL, WHICH IS STILL JUST 79 AT LAST
CHECK, STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF TYING ITS RECORD. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ACROSS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS, AND
THESE LOW DEWPOINTS CORRESPONDED WELL TO A DIMINISHED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM SMITH LAKE INTO EAST TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS: WILL WE BREAK ANY RECORDS? WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UNDER SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS AND TEMPERATURES STILL
MOSTLY BELOW 80, HAVE UNDERCUT NAM AND GFS MOS AND TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF MOS. THE NUMBERS PROPOSED BELOW WOULD EASILY BREAK
RECORDS AT HSV AND COME CLOSE AT MSL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
LIGHT CIRRUS COULD DRIFT IN LATER, WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST A
COOLER FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHING, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL EASE, ALLOWING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE RED RIVER & LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING A
SIZABLE SWATH OF QPF OVER OK/AR/LA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT GET
GOING HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE QPF AND POPS SEEM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT THE POP FORECAST WILL BE LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, AND IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WILL BE VASTLY OVERDONE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL
TREND TOWARD/JUST BELOW THE COOLER ECMWF MOS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK INTO CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY, LESS-DEFINED TROUGH.
THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GREATER
MOISTURE AMID SW FLOW TO THE EAST, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AMID NW FLOW
TO THE WEST. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH, AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION IS NOT AS GOOD. THE
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COMPROMISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT GET TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN UNTIL
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BASED ON VERIFICATION PERFORMANCE, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE GFSX MOS FOR HIGHS, AND 1-3 BELOW
FOR LOWS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

09

&&

.CLIMATE...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
RECORDS FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THE 31ST:

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (TODAY):
HUNTSVILLE 81/2006 - MUSCLE SHOALS 79/2003

RECORD LOW (TONIGHT):
HUNTSVILLE 60/1914 - MUSCLE SHOALS 56/1914

RECORD LOW (31ST):
HUNTSVILLE 58/1965 - MUSCLE SHOALS 55/1965

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 292321 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
IT IS AFTER 3 PM ON JULY 29TH, AND HSV HAS FINALLY HIT 80 DEGREES FOR
THE DAY. HSV WILL GET CLOSE TO TYING ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WHILE MSL, WHICH IS STILL JUST 79 AT LAST
CHECK, STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF TYING ITS RECORD. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ACROSS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS, AND
THESE LOW DEWPOINTS CORRESPONDED WELL TO A DIMINISHED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM SMITH LAKE INTO EAST TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS: WILL WE BREAK ANY RECORDS? WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UNDER SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS AND TEMPERATURES STILL
MOSTLY BELOW 80, HAVE UNDERCUT NAM AND GFS MOS AND TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF MOS. THE NUMBERS PROPOSED BELOW WOULD EASILY BREAK
RECORDS AT HSV AND COME CLOSE AT MSL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
LIGHT CIRRUS COULD DRIFT IN LATER, WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST A
COOLER FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHING, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL EASE, ALLOWING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE RED RIVER & LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING A
SIZABLE SWATH OF QPF OVER OK/AR/LA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT GET
GOING HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE QPF AND POPS SEEM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT THE POP FORECAST WILL BE LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, AND IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WILL BE VASTLY OVERDONE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL
TREND TOWARD/JUST BELOW THE COOLER ECMWF MOS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK INTO CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY, LESS-DEFINED TROUGH.
THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GREATER
MOISTURE AMID SW FLOW TO THE EAST, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AMID NW FLOW
TO THE WEST. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH, AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION IS NOT AS GOOD. THE
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COMPROMISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT GET TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN UNTIL
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BASED ON VERIFICATION PERFORMANCE, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE GFSX MOS FOR HIGHS, AND 1-3 BELOW
FOR LOWS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

09

&&

.CLIMATE...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
RECORDS FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THE 31ST:

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (TODAY):
HUNTSVILLE 81/2006 - MUSCLE SHOALS 79/2003

RECORD LOW (TONIGHT):
HUNTSVILLE 60/1914 - MUSCLE SHOALS 56/1914

RECORD LOW (31ST):
HUNTSVILLE 58/1965 - MUSCLE SHOALS 55/1965

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292035
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS AFTER 3 PM ON JULY 29TH, AND HSV HAS FINALLY HIT 80 DEGREES FOR
THE DAY. HSV WILL GET CLOSE TO TYING ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WHILE MSL, WHICH IS STILL JUST 79 AT LAST
CHECK, STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF TYING ITS RECORD. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ACROSS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS, AND
THESE LOW DEWPOINTS CORRESPONDED WELL TO A DIMINISHED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM SMITH LAKE INTO EAST TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS: WILL WE BREAK ANY RECORDS? WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UNDER SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS AND TEMPERATURES STILL
MOSTLY BELOW 80, HAVE UNDERCUT NAM AND GFS MOS AND TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF MOS. THE NUMBERS PROPOSED BELOW WOULD EASILY BREAK
RECORDS AT HSV AND COME CLOSE AT MSL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
LIGHT CIRRUS COULD DRIFT IN LATER, WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST A
COOLER FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHING, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL EASE, ALLOWING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE RED RIVER & LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING A
SIZABLE SWATH OF QPF OVER OK/AR/LA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT GET
GOING HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE QPF AND POPS SEEM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT THE POP FORECAST WILL BE LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, AND IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WILL BE VASTLY OVERDONE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL
TREND TOWARD/JUST BELOW THE COOLER ECMWF MOS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK INTO CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY, LESS-DEFINED TROUGH.
THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GREATER
MOISTURE AMID SW FLOW TO THE EAST, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AMID NW FLOW
TO THE WEST. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH, AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION IS NOT AS GOOD. THE
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COMPROMISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT GET TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN UNTIL
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BASED ON VERIFICATION PERFORMANCE, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE GFSX MOS FOR HIGHS, AND 1-3 BELOW
FOR LOWS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU FIELD
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS ARE GENERALLY 4-5K FT AND WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

DJN.83

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THE 31ST:

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (TODAY):
HUNTSVILLE 81/2006 - MUSCLE SHOALS 79/2003

RECORD LOW (TONIGHT):
HUNTSVILLE 60/1914 - MUSCLE SHOALS 56/1914

RECORD LOW (31ST):
HUNTSVILLE 58/1965 - MUSCLE SHOALS 55/1965

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0  10  10  20
SHOALS        56  85  61  82 /   0  10  10  30
VINEMONT      56  83  61  83 /   0  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  55  82  61  82 /   0  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   56  82  61  83 /   0  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    53  82  60  83 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 292035
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS AFTER 3 PM ON JULY 29TH, AND HSV HAS FINALLY HIT 80 DEGREES FOR
THE DAY. HSV WILL GET CLOSE TO TYING ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW), WHILE MSL, WHICH IS STILL JUST 79 AT LAST
CHECK, STILL HAS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF TYING ITS RECORD. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS ACROSS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS, AND
THESE LOW DEWPOINTS CORRESPONDED WELL TO A DIMINISHED CU FIELD
STRETCHING FROM SMITH LAKE INTO EAST TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY,
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) TROUGH, WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS: WILL WE BREAK ANY RECORDS? WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UNDER SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS AND TEMPERATURES STILL
MOSTLY BELOW 80, HAVE UNDERCUT NAM AND GFS MOS AND TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER ECMWF MOS. THE NUMBERS PROPOSED BELOW WOULD EASILY BREAK
RECORDS AT HSV AND COME CLOSE AT MSL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
LIGHT CIRRUS COULD DRIFT IN LATER, WHICH MIGHT PUT A DAMPER ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT FOR NOW, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST A
COOLER FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHING, BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL EASE, ALLOWING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE RED RIVER & LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING A
SIZABLE SWATH OF QPF OVER OK/AR/LA, BUT MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT GET
GOING HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE QPF AND POPS SEEM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE ANTICIPATED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT THE POP FORECAST WILL BE LEFT MOSTLY
UNCHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, AND IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WILL BE VASTLY OVERDONE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL
TREND TOWARD/JUST BELOW THE COOLER ECMWF MOS, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWEST AL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK INTO CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY, LESS-DEFINED TROUGH.
THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN GREATER
MOISTURE AMID SW FLOW TO THE EAST, AND DRIER CONDITIONS AMID NW FLOW
TO THE WEST. WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH, AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION IS NOT AS GOOD. THE
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COMPROMISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, BUT THEY STILL MAY NOT GET TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN UNTIL
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BASED ON VERIFICATION PERFORMANCE, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE GFSX MOS FOR HIGHS, AND 1-3 BELOW
FOR LOWS.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU FIELD
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS ARE GENERALLY 4-5K FT AND WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

DJN.83

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THE 31ST:

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (TODAY):
HUNTSVILLE 81/2006 - MUSCLE SHOALS 79/2003

RECORD LOW (TONIGHT):
HUNTSVILLE 60/1914 - MUSCLE SHOALS 56/1914

RECORD LOW (31ST):
HUNTSVILLE 58/1965 - MUSCLE SHOALS 55/1965

BCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0  10  10  20
SHOALS        56  85  61  82 /   0  10  10  30
VINEMONT      56  83  61  83 /   0  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  55  82  61  82 /   0  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   56  82  61  83 /   0  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    53  82  60  83 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291712 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1042 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
INFLUENCED BY A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY DAY FOR LATE JULY. AFTER
STARTING IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S EARLIER THIS MRNG...TEMPS HAVE
REBOUNDED GENERALLY TO THE LWR 70S /UPR 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...A
SCT-BKN FIELD OF CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED. IN THIS AREA...A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS /DEWPTS BTWN 58-61F/. COMPARITIVELY...
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THIS CU FIELD...DEWPTS ARE IN THE LWR 50S -
EVEN A 49F AT KLUG /LEWISBURG TN/ AS OF 15Z.

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN
79-83F LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. AS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT CU FIELD TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN.

** QUICK CLIMATE NOTE ** THE RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
 HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL FOR THIS DATE IS 81F SET BACK IN 2006.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU FIELD
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS ARE GENERALLY 4-5K FT AND WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291712 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1042 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
INFLUENCED BY A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY DAY FOR LATE JULY. AFTER
STARTING IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S EARLIER THIS MRNG...TEMPS HAVE
REBOUNDED GENERALLY TO THE LWR 70S /UPR 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...A
SCT-BKN FIELD OF CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED. IN THIS AREA...A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS /DEWPTS BTWN 58-61F/. COMPARITIVELY...
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THIS CU FIELD...DEWPTS ARE IN THE LWR 50S -
EVEN A 49F AT KLUG /LEWISBURG TN/ AS OF 15Z.

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN
79-83F LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. AS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT CU FIELD TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN.

** QUICK CLIMATE NOTE ** THE RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
 HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL FOR THIS DATE IS 81F SET BACK IN 2006.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU FIELD
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS ARE GENERALLY 4-5K FT AND WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291542 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1042 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INFLUENCED BY A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY DAY FOR LATE JULY. AFTER
STARTING IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S EARLIER THIS MRNG...TEMPS HAVE
REBOUNDED GENERALLY TO THE LWR 70S /UPR 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...A
SCT-BKN FIELD OF CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED. IN THIS AREA...A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS /DEWPTS BTWN 58-61F/. COMPARITIVELY...
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THIS CU FIELD...DEWPTS ARE IN THE LWR 50S -
EVEN A 49F AT KLUG /LEWISBURG TN/ AS OF 15Z.

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN
79-83F LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. AS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT CU FIELD TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN.

** QUICK CLIMATE NOTE ** THE RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
 HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL FOR THIS DATE IS 81F SET BACK IN 2006.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291542 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1042 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INFLUENCED BY A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY DAY FOR LATE JULY. AFTER
STARTING IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S EARLIER THIS MRNG...TEMPS HAVE
REBOUNDED GENERALLY TO THE LWR 70S /UPR 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...A
SCT-BKN FIELD OF CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED. IN THIS AREA...A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS /DEWPTS BTWN 58-61F/. COMPARITIVELY...
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THIS CU FIELD...DEWPTS ARE IN THE LWR 50S -
EVEN A 49F AT KLUG /LEWISBURG TN/ AS OF 15Z.

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN
79-83F LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. AS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT CU FIELD TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN.

** QUICK CLIMATE NOTE ** THE RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
 HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL FOR THIS DATE IS 81F SET BACK IN 2006.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291151
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.-MEXICO BORDER. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SURFACE OBS SUGGESTS THAT A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL/DRY AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD DAWN...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST LOWS TO REACH THE MID 50S. RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30 WILL
LIKELY BE BROKEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
MID- LEVEL WAVES -- CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES -- ROUND THE APEX OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS... THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE 310-330K LAYER -- BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIGHT
RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND FROM SW-TO-NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/NE ALABAMA AND
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE GENERAL POSITION OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES MAY INTERACT WITH A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE TO BRING
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...A PERSISTENT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF LINGERING SFC CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN CLOSE TO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 291043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.-MEXICO BORDER. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SURFACE OBS SUGGESTS THAT A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL/DRY AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD DAWN...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST LOWS TO REACH THE MID 50S. RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30 WILL
LIKELY BE BROKEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
MID- LEVEL WAVES -- CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES -- ROUND THE APEX OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS... THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE 310-330K LAYER -- BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIGHT
RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND FROM SW-TO-NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/NE ALABAMA AND
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE GENERAL POSITION OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES MAY INTERACT WITH A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE TO BRING
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...A PERSISTENT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF LINGERING SFC CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN CLOSE TO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE
PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A
TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS
ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    81  58  84  64 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        82  57  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      81  58  84  62 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  79  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   80  58  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    82  55  84  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 291043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.-MEXICO BORDER. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SURFACE OBS SUGGESTS THAT A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL/DRY AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD DAWN...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST LOWS TO REACH THE MID 50S. RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30 WILL
LIKELY BE BROKEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
MID- LEVEL WAVES -- CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES -- ROUND THE APEX OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS... THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE 310-330K LAYER -- BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIGHT
RAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND FROM SW-TO-NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/NE ALABAMA AND
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE GENERAL POSITION OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES MAY INTERACT WITH A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE TO BRING
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
INITIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...A PERSISTENT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF LINGERING SFC CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN CLOSE TO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE
PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A
TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS
ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    81  58  84  64 /   0   0  10  10
SHOALS        82  57  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      81  58  84  62 /   0   0  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  79  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   80  58  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
FORT PAYNE    82  55  84  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290524 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
A NICE AND ATYPICAL LATE JULY EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 930PM. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE JUST
NORTH OF THE CWFA, AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IS UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. IN FACT, UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALL OF WHICH IS SET
TO ARRIVE IN THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING.

NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING.
MORNING LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S, WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE TONIGHT. NEAR-RECORD AND RECORD LOWS
AREN`T ANTICIPATED TOMORROW MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
A FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 290253 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
953 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE AND ATYPICAL LATE JULY EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 930PM. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE JUST
NORTH OF THE CWFA, AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IS UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. IN FACT, UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALL OF WHICH IS SET
TO ARRIVE IN THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING.

NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING.
MORNING LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S, WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE TONIGHT. NEAR-RECORD AND RECORD LOWS
AREN`T ANTICIPATED TOMORROW MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 290253 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
953 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE AND ATYPICAL LATE JULY EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 930PM. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE JUST
NORTH OF THE CWFA, AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IS UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. IN FACT, UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALL OF WHICH IS SET
TO ARRIVE IN THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING.

NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING.
MORNING LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S, WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE TONIGHT. NEAR-RECORD AND RECORD LOWS
AREN`T ANTICIPATED TOMORROW MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 282335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
20Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LWR-MID 80S /5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY/. DEWPTS/HUMIDITY WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER /AROUND 60F/
COMPARED TO THE MID 70S YESTERDAY AFTN. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SCT-BKN CU FIELD WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND...A
UNUSUALLY DEEP /FOR LATE JULY/ LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
ANY RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOW
VALUES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL RECORD LOW IN HUNTSVILLE FOR JULY 30TH IS 60F SET IN 1914
/WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 58F AT THIS TIME/. THE NORMAL LOW IS
70F.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE HUDSON
BAY IN EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM "ENERGY" AND MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
RECYCLING AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL GRADUALLY BREAK OFF AND SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BROAD UPR TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF OK/TX. MODELS SPREAD THIS PRECIP SOUTH/EAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z/NAM INITIATES FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE PRECIP - IN SRN MO/NRN AR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SPREAD
SOME LIGHT (ELEVATED/ISENTROPICALLY-DRIVEN) PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. WPC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED JUST A "SLIGHT CHANCE" FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/FORCING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA -- FROM THE GULF COAST AND UP THE EAST
COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY OVERTOP NRN AL/SRN TN. THIS ALSO MAKES
IT CHALLENGING TO PREDICT POPS/WX. WENT AHEAD AND LEANED TOWARD THE
HPC/WPC GUIDANCE FOR POPS...SHOWING LOW CHANCE POPS (25-30%) ACROSS
NORTHEAST AL AND NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST. GIVEN THE UPR LVL
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 282335 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
20Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LWR-MID 80S /5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY/. DEWPTS/HUMIDITY WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER /AROUND 60F/
COMPARED TO THE MID 70S YESTERDAY AFTN. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SCT-BKN CU FIELD WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND...A
UNUSUALLY DEEP /FOR LATE JULY/ LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
ANY RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOW
VALUES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL RECORD LOW IN HUNTSVILLE FOR JULY 30TH IS 60F SET IN 1914
/WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 58F AT THIS TIME/. THE NORMAL LOW IS
70F.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE HUDSON
BAY IN EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM "ENERGY" AND MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
RECYCLING AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL GRADUALLY BREAK OFF AND SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BROAD UPR TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF OK/TX. MODELS SPREAD THIS PRECIP SOUTH/EAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z/NAM INITIATES FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE PRECIP - IN SRN MO/NRN AR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SPREAD
SOME LIGHT (ELEVATED/ISENTROPICALLY-DRIVEN) PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. WPC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED JUST A "SLIGHT CHANCE" FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/FORCING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA -- FROM THE GULF COAST AND UP THE EAST
COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY OVERTOP NRN AL/SRN TN. THIS ALSO MAKES
IT CHALLENGING TO PREDICT POPS/WX. WENT AHEAD AND LEANED TOWARD THE
HPC/WPC GUIDANCE FOR POPS...SHOWING LOW CHANCE POPS (25-30%) ACROSS
NORTHEAST AL AND NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST. GIVEN THE UPR LVL
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF
DRY AIR WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED (AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS). OTHERWISE, A FEW CLOUDS ARND 5KFT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281956
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
20Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LWR-MID 80S /5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY/. DEWPTS/HUMIDITY WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER /AROUND 60F/
COMPARED TO THE MID 70S YESTERDAY AFTN. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SCT-BKN CU FIELD WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND...A
UNUSUALLY DEEP /FOR LATE JULY/ LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
ANY RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOW
VALUES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL RECORD LOW IN HUNTSVILLE FOR JULY 30TH IS 60F SET IN 1914
/WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 58F AT THIS TIME/. THE NORMAL LOW IS
70F.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE HUDSON
BAY IN EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM "ENERGY" AND MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
RECYCLING AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL GRADUALLY BREAK OFF AND SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BROAD UPR TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF OK/TX. MODELS SPREAD THIS PRECIP SOUTH/EAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z/NAM INITIATES FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE PRECIP - IN SRN MO/NRN AR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SPREAD
SOME LIGHT (ELEVATED/ISENTROPICALLY-DRIVEN) PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. WPC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED JUST A "SLIGHT CHANCE" FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/FORCING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA -- FROM THE GULF COAST AND UP THE EAST
COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY OVERTOP NRN AL/SRN TN. THIS ALSO MAKES
IT CHALLENGING TO PREDICT POPS/WX. WENT AHEAD AND LEANED TOWARD THE
HPC/WPC GUIDANCE FOR POPS...SHOWING LOW CHANCE POPS (25-30%) ACROSS
NORTHEAST AL AND NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST. GIVEN THE UPR LVL
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        62  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      62  80  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  59  80  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   61  82  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281956
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
20Z TEMPS WERE IN THE LWR-MID 80S /5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY/. DEWPTS/HUMIDITY WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER /AROUND 60F/
COMPARED TO THE MID 70S YESTERDAY AFTN. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SCT-BKN CU FIELD WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPR LVL LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND...A
UNUSUALLY DEEP /FOR LATE JULY/ LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
ANY RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOW
VALUES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL RECORD LOW IN HUNTSVILLE FOR JULY 30TH IS 60F SET IN 1914
/WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 58F AT THIS TIME/. THE NORMAL LOW IS
70F.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPR LVL VORTEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE HUDSON
BAY IN EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM "ENERGY" AND MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
RECYCLING AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL GRADUALLY BREAK OFF AND SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BROAD UPR TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF OK/TX. MODELS SPREAD THIS PRECIP SOUTH/EAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z/NAM INITIATES FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE PRECIP - IN SRN MO/NRN AR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SPREAD
SOME LIGHT (ELEVATED/ISENTROPICALLY-DRIVEN) PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. WPC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED JUST A "SLIGHT CHANCE" FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/FORCING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA -- FROM THE GULF COAST AND UP THE EAST
COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEARLY OVERTOP NRN AL/SRN TN. THIS ALSO MAKES
IT CHALLENGING TO PREDICT POPS/WX. WENT AHEAD AND LEANED TOWARD THE
HPC/WPC GUIDANCE FOR POPS...SHOWING LOW CHANCE POPS (25-30%) ACROSS
NORTHEAST AL AND NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST. GIVEN THE UPR LVL
PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        62  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      62  80  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  59  80  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   61  82  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    61  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1009 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
THE 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-MID CLOUDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BIRMINGHAM TO
TUSCALOOSA LINE AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN TEMPS...AS
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA...TEMPS ARE
STILL ALREADY AROUND 80 DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281727 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1009 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
THE 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-MID CLOUDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BIRMINGHAM TO
TUSCALOOSA LINE AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN TEMPS...AS
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA...TEMPS ARE
STILL ALREADY AROUND 80 DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR HSV AND MSL.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281509 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1009 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-MID CLOUDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BIRMINGHAM TO
TUSCALOOSA LINE AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN TEMPS...AS
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA...TEMPS ARE
STILL ALREADY AROUND 80 DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF HSV/MSL
WITH LINGERING ALTOCU CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EACH AERODOME BY
28/14Z. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THRU MAJORITY OF THE
AFTN...WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPING /10G18 KTS/. A STRONG UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN ALTOCU ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTN...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281509 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1009 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-MID CLOUDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BIRMINGHAM TO
TUSCALOOSA LINE AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO IMPROVE CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN TEMPS...AS
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA...TEMPS ARE
STILL ALREADY AROUND 80 DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE ISSUING THE FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF HSV/MSL
WITH LINGERING ALTOCU CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EACH AERODOME BY
28/14Z. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THRU MAJORITY OF THE
AFTN...WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPING /10G18 KTS/. A STRONG UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN ALTOCU ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTN...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





000
FXUS64 KHUN 281200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM.

OTHERWISE CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WITH
ONLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF I65. THE CDFNT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (MID/UPPER 80S) HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE AFTN. A MUCH LESS
HUMID DAY.

THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THURSDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS THRU THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60. WEDNESDAY MRNG LOOKS
TO BE THE COOLEST MRNG WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S...NOT BAD FOR THE
END OF JULY IN AL. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW MAY EFFECT THE CWA...IF GFS IS
CORRECT. ECMWF KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND...WHERE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THE CHC OF PCPN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FCST ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF HSV/MSL
WITH LINGERING ALTOCU CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EACH AERODOME BY
28/14Z. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THRU MAJORITY OF THE
AFTN...WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPING /10G18 KTS/. A STRONG UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN ALTOCU ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTN...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.




000
FXUS64 KHUN 281200
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM.

OTHERWISE CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WITH
ONLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF I65. THE CDFNT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (MID/UPPER 80S) HOWEVER
THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S BY THE AFTN. A MUCH LESS
HUMID DAY.

THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THURSDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS THRU THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60. WEDNESDAY MRNG LOOKS
TO BE THE COOLEST MRNG WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S...NOT BAD FOR THE
END OF JULY IN AL. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW MAY EFFECT THE CWA...IF GFS IS
CORRECT. ECMWF KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND...WHERE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THE CHC OF PCPN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FCST ATTM.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF HSV/MSL
WITH LINGERING ALTOCU CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EACH AERODOME BY
28/14Z. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THRU MAJORITY OF THE
AFTN...WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPING /10G18 KTS/. A STRONG UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN ALTOCU ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTN...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO NNE
OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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