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000
FXUS63 KICT 241146
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SHROUDING MOST OF KINGMAN COUNTY HAVE FINE-
TUNED AREAS OF FOG DESCRIPTOR UNTIL ~10AM FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. DUE TO
ITS LOCALIZED NATURE HAVE CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BUT AM OBVIOUSLY CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BY FAR THE GREATEST HAZARD EARLY THIS MORNING IS FOG THAT MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE VSBYS INTO IFR COUNTRY. WITH THE ONSET OF SW WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z...BUT WITH FAIRLY THICK CIRROSTRATUS
CONTINUING TO SPILL S/SE ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD THE FOG MAY PERSIST
TIL ~17Z SO STAY TUNED. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ALL AREAS WOULD BE IN
VFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 240806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            80  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 240806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            80  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 240502
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE MATCHED OR SURPASSED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY...WITH
DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL THEN OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE REGION COME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         54  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          55  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  82  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  81  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            53  80  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 240502
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE MATCHED OR SURPASSED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY...WITH
DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL THEN OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE REGION COME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         54  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          55  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  82  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  81  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            53  80  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 232326
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE MATCHED OR SURPASSED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY...WITH
DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL THEN OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE REGION COME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KCNU AND
KRSL TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT THESE
MAY NEED UPDATES IN THE SUBSEQUENT TAFS. FRIDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SKIES WILL
TREND TOWARDS CLEARING.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         54  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          55  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  82  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  81  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            53  80  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231951
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE MATCHED OR SURPASSED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY...WITH
DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL THEN OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE REGION COME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NW TO SE AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.
KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND THINK KICT WILL
SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS LINGER
THE LONGEST OVER SE KS...WITH KCNU NOT SCATTERING OUT UNTIL AROUND
00-01Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THIS CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES AS  DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.  GFS SHOWS THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION FOR NOW AS OTHER
SOLUTIONS DRY THINGS OUT MORE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         54  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          55  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  82  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  81  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            53  80  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231951
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE MATCHED OR SURPASSED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY...WITH
DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL THEN OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE REGION COME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NW TO SE AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.
KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND THINK KICT WILL
SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS LINGER
THE LONGEST OVER SE KS...WITH KCNU NOT SCATTERING OUT UNTIL AROUND
00-01Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THIS CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES AS  DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.  GFS SHOWS THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION FOR NOW AS OTHER
SOLUTIONS DRY THINGS OUT MORE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        56  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         54  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          55  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  87  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  82  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         54  81  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            53  80  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  81  57  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231728
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
SURFACE VISIBILITIES SLOWLY RISE.  MAY KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR A
FEW HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDINESS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SO WILL SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES.
THINK MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WILL STAY IN THE
CLOUDINESS FOR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING ANY
REMNANT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NW TO SE AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.
KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND THINK KICT WILL
SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS LINGER
THE LONGEST OVER SE KS...WITH KCNU NOT SCATTERING OUT UNTIL AROUND
00-01Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THIS CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES AS  DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.  GFS SHOWS THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION FOR NOW AS OTHER
SOLUTIONS DRY THINGS OUT MORE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            73  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
SURFACE VISIBILITIES SLOWLY RISE.  MAY KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR A
FEW HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDINESS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SO WILL SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES.
THINK MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WILL STAY IN THE
CLOUDINESS FOR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING ANY
REMNANT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RSL...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            73  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
SURFACE VISIBILITIES SLOWLY RISE.  MAY KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR A
FEW HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDINESS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SO WILL SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES.
THINK MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WILL STAY IN THE
CLOUDINESS FOR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING ANY
REMNANT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RSL...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            73  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RSL...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            73  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 230817
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          76  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        75  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          76  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            74  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 230817
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          76  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        75  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          76  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            74  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 230504
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  60  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  30  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  30  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  30  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 230504
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  60  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  30  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  30  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  30  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 222327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AT THE KRSL AND KSLN
TERMINALS. THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. EXPECT
LOW-LEVEL BROKEN CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  60  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 222026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  60  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 222026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  60  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221716
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  60  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         77  51  74  54 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  60  60   0   0
SALINA          80  56  75  55 /  60  70   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221716
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  60  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         77  51  74  54 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  60  60   0   0
SALINA          80  56  75  55 /  60  70   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT HUT-ICT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL
AFFECTING CNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR
NOW COVERED THIS THREAT WITH VCSH...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INSERT PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AND/OR TEMPO
GROUPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH RSL AROUND 18Z...ICT-SLN-HUT
AROUND 22-23Z AND CNU AROUND 04Z. ONCE THE RAIN PASSES TO THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MVFR
TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS...GREATEST CHANCES GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  20  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  30  50  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  30  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  75  57 /  20  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  51  74  54 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          79  56  75  55 /  40  60   0   0
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /  30  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  10  50  30  10
IOLA            77  57  75  54 /  10  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    78  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 220822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  50  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  51  74  54 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          79  56  75  55 /  50  60   0   0
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     77  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  54 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 220458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 220458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 212331
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SKY COVER. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE KRSL AND KSLN
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED
WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NOT HIGH. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
MENTIONS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MENTIONS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FORECASTS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211931
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 211658
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      80  56  79  56 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          78  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         78  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      78  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          79  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       79  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211658
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      80  56  79  56 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          78  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         78  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      78  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          79  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       79  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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