Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KICT 022234
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRI...AND POSSIBLY SAT.  WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF
THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH 850H AND 1000-850H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL KS AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE. (ALMOST 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE WAY TO
GO.  IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION... THEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST
GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN AS WELL...AS
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SOME OVER CENTRAL
KS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD
TO SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
OR BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING AN UPPER IMPULSE
OUT OF THE SW US AND ACROSS KS ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION...AS THIS FRONT STALL ACROSS KS TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST PLANNED WITH VFR WEATHER PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF 25-32 KTS THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING SOME AFTER DARK. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT BEFORE WANING DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS (ACCAS) IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 022234
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRI...AND POSSIBLY SAT.  WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF
THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH 850H AND 1000-850H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL KS AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE. (ALMOST 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE WAY TO
GO.  IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION... THEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST
GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN AS WELL...AS
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SOME OVER CENTRAL
KS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD
TO SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
OR BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING AN UPPER IMPULSE
OUT OF THE SW US AND ACROSS KS ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION...AS THIS FRONT STALL ACROSS KS TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST PLANNED WITH VFR WEATHER PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF 25-32 KTS THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING SOME AFTER DARK. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT BEFORE WANING DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS (ACCAS) IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 022234
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRI...AND POSSIBLY SAT.  WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF
THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH 850H AND 1000-850H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL KS AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE. (ALMOST 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE WAY TO
GO.  IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION... THEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST
GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN AS WELL...AS
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SOME OVER CENTRAL
KS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD
TO SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
OR BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING AN UPPER IMPULSE
OUT OF THE SW US AND ACROSS KS ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION...AS THIS FRONT STALL ACROSS KS TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST PLANNED WITH VFR WEATHER PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF 25-32 KTS THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING SOME AFTER DARK. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT BEFORE WANING DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS (ACCAS) IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 021944
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRI...AND POSSIBLY SAT.  WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF
THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH 850H AND 1000-850H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL KS AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE. (ALMOST 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE WAY TO
GO.  IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION... THEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST
GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN AS WELL...AS
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SOME OVER CENTRAL
KS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD
TO SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
OR BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING AN UPPER IMPULSE
OUT OF THE SW US AND ACROSS KS ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION...AS THIS FRONT STALL ACROSS KS TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 021944
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRI...AND POSSIBLY SAT.  WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF
THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH 850H AND 1000-850H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL KS AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE. (ALMOST 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE WAY TO
GO.  IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION... THEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST
GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN AS WELL...AS
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SOME OVER CENTRAL
KS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD
TO SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
OR BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING AN UPPER IMPULSE
OUT OF THE SW US AND ACROSS KS ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION...AS THIS FRONT STALL ACROSS KS TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 021724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  71  94  73 /  20   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      96  71  95  73 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          95  71  94  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELDORADO        94  70  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         99  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  72  94  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 021724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  71  94  73 /  20   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      96  71  95  73 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          95  71  94  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELDORADO        94  70  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         99  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  72  94  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 021126
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TODAY...WITH FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD IMPACT AVIATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  71  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         98  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 021126
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TODAY...WITH FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD IMPACT AVIATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  71  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         98  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 021126
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TODAY...WITH FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD IMPACT AVIATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  71  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         98  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 021126
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TODAY...WITH FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD IMPACT AVIATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  71  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         98  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 020812
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PERIOD OF BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN
THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         97  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  70  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 020812
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PERIOD OF BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN
THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         97  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  70  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 020244
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PERIOD OF BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN
THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 020244 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PERIOD OF BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN
THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 020244 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PERIOD OF BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN
THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 012330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE ITS
WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN THOUGH NOT
YET WITH VCTS. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 012330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE ITS
WAY EAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN THOUGH NOT
YET WITH VCTS. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAF.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF
REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BEFORE
DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SO WILL LEAVE
A SMALL POP IN FOR BOTH LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL KS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS VERY SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY (ALMOST 5 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION...THEN
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUING INTO SAT
AND MOST OF SUN...AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. PREVIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT. BUT LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US MAY NOT ALLOW THIS TO PUSH
AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY SLOWING IT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA OR WASHING IT OUT ON MON OR TUE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...FOR CONTINUITY/
COORDINATION SAKE...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAF.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  92  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  95 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         71  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAF.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED/HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY/TIMING IS LESS THAN CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED/HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY/TIMING IS LESS THAN CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED/HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY/TIMING IS LESS THAN CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED/HIGH BASED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY/TIMING IS LESS THAN CERTAIN. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 311959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 310753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities