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000
FXUS63 KICT 051943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 1ST OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
AFTERNOON...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING
OVER FAR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...STUNTED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S ARE
REASONABLE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THINKING STORM
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY
CONGEALING INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO AS IT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 2ND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
(ALTHOUGH NAM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHEST WEST)...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS LIKELY INCREASING TO AT LEAST NEAR 60F BY PEAK HEATING
SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST NAM. THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED NEAR 50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH INITIATION PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF I-135/35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND
ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...WITH MAIN THREATS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES...TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY...PUSHING THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY EAST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR MAINLY FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES
REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      51  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          51  84  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        51  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         53  86  60  84 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      53  87  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          50  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       50  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC





000
FXUS63 KICT 051943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL HELP BOOST DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 1ST OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
AFTERNOON...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING
OVER FAR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...STUNTED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S ARE
REASONABLE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THINKING STORM
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY
CONGEALING INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO AS IT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 2ND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
(ALTHOUGH NAM IS QUITE A BIT FURTHEST WEST)...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS LIKELY INCREASING TO AT LEAST NEAR 60F BY PEAK HEATING
SUNDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST NAM. THE ASSOCIATED
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CONTINUED NEAR 50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH INITIATION PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF I-135/35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS FEATURES AND
ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...WITH MAIN THREATS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES...TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY...PUSHING THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY EAST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE
GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR MAINLY FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES
REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      51  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          51  84  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        51  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         53  86  60  84 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      53  87  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          50  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       50  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC





000
FXUS63 KICT 051657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT 80S AREA WIDE BY FRI. SHOULD ALSO
START TO SEE SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ON FRI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

BY SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SHOULD SEE A DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP OVER WESTERN KS
SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER FOR SAT STORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH OUT WEST TO GET
A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT NIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE CONVECTION
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE BEING SITUATED THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO
SOUTHERN NM. BY SUN AFTERNOON A DRYLINE SHOULD STRETCH FROM
WESTERN KS AND THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BY SUN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. AROUND
50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GET SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE DAYTIME STORMS.

GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      80  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      81  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          80  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  51  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC





000
FXUS63 KICT 051657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT 80S AREA WIDE BY FRI. SHOULD ALSO
START TO SEE SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ON FRI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

BY SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SHOULD SEE A DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP OVER WESTERN KS
SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER FOR SAT STORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH OUT WEST TO GET
A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT NIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE CONVECTION
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE BEING SITUATED THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO
SOUTHERN NM. BY SUN AFTERNOON A DRYLINE SHOULD STRETCH FROM
WESTERN KS AND THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BY SUN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. AROUND
50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GET SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE DAYTIME STORMS.

GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      80  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      81  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          80  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  51  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC





000
FXUS63 KICT 051059
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT 80S AREA WIDE BY FRI. SHOULD ALSO
START TO SEE SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ON FRI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

BY SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SHOULD SEE A DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP OVER WESTERN KS
SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER FOR SAT STORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH OUT WEST TO GET
A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT NIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE CONVECTION
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE BEING SITUATED THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO
SOUTHERN NM. BY SUN AFTERNOON A DRYLINE SHOULD STRETCH FROM
WESTERN KS AND THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BY SUN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. AROUND
50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GET SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE DAYTIME STORMS.

GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      80  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      81  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          80  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  51  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 051059
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT 80S AREA WIDE BY FRI. SHOULD ALSO
START TO SEE SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ON FRI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

BY SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SHOULD SEE A DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP OVER WESTERN KS
SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER FOR SAT STORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH OUT WEST TO GET
A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT NIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE CONVECTION
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE BEING SITUATED THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO
SOUTHERN NM. BY SUN AFTERNOON A DRYLINE SHOULD STRETCH FROM
WESTERN KS AND THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BY SUN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. AROUND
50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GET SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE DAYTIME STORMS.

GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      80  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      81  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          80  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  51  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 050747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT 80S AREA WIDE BY FRI. SHOULD ALSO
START TO SEE SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ON FRI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

BY SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SHOULD SEE A DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP OVER WESTERN KS
SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER FOR SAT STORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH OUT WEST TO GET
A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT NIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE CONVECTION
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE BEING SITUATED THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO
SOUTHERN NM. BY SUN AFTERNOON A DRYLINE SHOULD STRETCH FROM
WESTERN KS AND THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BY SUN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. AROUND
50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GET SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE DAYTIME STORMS.

GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE WEATHER WL CONT TO BE EXCELLENT THRU THU NGT & LKLY BYD W/
CRYSTAL CLR SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      80  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      81  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          80  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  51  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS





000
FXUS63 KICT 050428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSES EAST OVER MID-AMERICA.
INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST READINGS WELL INTO THE
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A MODEST RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE FIRST OF A
HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THINKING HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN KANSAS CLOSEST TO GREATEST
COMBO OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...BUT ACTIVITY COULD TRICKLE
INTO MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY-MONDAY...AS A FEW MORE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE QUALITY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STUNTED DUE TO
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE DRYLINE
BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED COMBO OF
FORCING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. IF
QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS THE THIRD LOBE OF UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE WEATHER WL CONT TO BE EXCELLENT THRU THU NGT & LKLY BYD W/
CRYSTAL CLR SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  79  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          45  78  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        44  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  83  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  80  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  76  49  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS





000
FXUS63 KICT 042338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSES EAST OVER MID-AMERICA.
INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST READINGS WELL INTO THE
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A MODEST RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE FIRST OF A
HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THINKING HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN KANSAS CLOSEST TO GREATEST
COMBO OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...BUT ACTIVITY COULD TRICKLE
INTO MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY-MONDAY...AS A FEW MORE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE QUALITY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STUNTED DUE TO
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE DRYLINE
BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED COMBO OF
FORCING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. IF
QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS THE THIRD LOBE OF UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE WEATHER WL BE EXCELLENT THRU THU NGT & LKLY BYD W/ CRYSTAL CLR
SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  79  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          45  78  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        44  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  83  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  80  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  76  49  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS





000
FXUS63 KICT 042008
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSES EAST OVER MID-AMERICA.
INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST READINGS WELL INTO THE
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A MODEST RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE FIRST OF A
HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THINKING HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN KANSAS CLOSEST TO GREATEST
COMBO OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...BUT ACTIVITY COULD TRICKLE
INTO MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY-MONDAY...AS A FEW MORE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE QUALITY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STUNTED DUE TO
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE DRYLINE
BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED COMBO OF
FORCING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. IF
QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS THE THIRD LOBE OF UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BE SITUATED OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE DIURNALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  79  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          45  78  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        44  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  83  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  80  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  76  49  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED





000
FXUS63 KICT 041725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SITUATED OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
DIURNALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED





000
FXUS63 KICT 041725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BE SITUATED OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
DIURNALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED





000
FXUS63 KICT 041101
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 041101
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 040743
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH KCNU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WHERE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE/VEER AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 040743
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH KCNU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WHERE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE/VEER AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 040445
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THIS AFTERNOON INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NE ONTARIO/
SRN HUDSON BAY. TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE LOW. A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WAS DRAPED FROM JUST N OF THE OH
VALLEY...ACROSS SRN KS...TO NRN NM WHILE A 2ND...MUCH MORE COMPACT
SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO NRN MN. A SHARP UPPER
DECK RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTAIRS...A WEAK SE-
MOVING SFC TROF HAD ENTERED CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE SHARP...POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM JUST
N OF THE OH VALLEY...THRU KS...TO NRN NM WILL SURGE SE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE LOWER APPALACHIANS ON
WED. IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE THE 2ND SHORTWAVE WILL SURGE SSE FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING
WHERE/WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. SUCH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE AN ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" WITH THE UPPER
DECK RIDGE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE WRN PLAINS UNTIL THU & CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRI. THE GRADUALLY INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE AXIS WOULD PRODUCE NICE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK &
WITH A MID-UPPER CYCLONE EJECTING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NE ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AS IT DROPS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THU NIGHT &
FRI...FRONT RANGE TROFFING WOULD STRENGTHEN. IT`LL GET MUCH WARMER
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUCH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER PATTERN DOMINATING MOST OF THE CONUS ANY
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE FROM NM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST ALL THE WAY TO SASKATCHEWAN. ON SUN THE PRIMARY MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO LIFT NE ACROSS NM SUN AFTERNOON & EVE.
THIS WOULD INDUCE INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER
ON SUN WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS KS. BY THIS TIME
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER E ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME STILL ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS
ADVANCING AS FAR E AS CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...
AREAS THRU TUE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON SEVERITY IS NOT & WILL
EXPRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH KCNU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WHERE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE/VEER AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          50  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        50  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         47  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       49  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  75  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         50  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            50  72  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  74  43  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 032326
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THIS AFTERNOON INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NE ONTARIO/
SRN HUDSON BAY. TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE LOW. A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WAS DRAPED FROM JUST N OF THE OH
VALLEY...ACROSS SRN KS...TO NRN NM WHILE A 2ND...MUCH MORE COMPACT
SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO NRN MN. A SHARP UPPER
DECK RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTAIRS...A WEAK SE-
MOVING SFC TROF HAD ENTERED CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE SHARP...POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM JUST
N OF THE OH VALLEY...THRU KS...TO NRN NM WILL SURGE SE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE LOWER APPALACHIANS ON
WED. IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE THE 2ND SHORTWAVE WILL SURGE SSE FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING
WHERE/WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. SUCH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE AN ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" WITH THE UPPER
DECK RIDGE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE WRN PLAINS UNTIL THU & CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRI. THE GRADUALLY INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE AXIS WOULD PRODUCE NICE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK &
WITH A MID-UPPER CYCLONE EJECTING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NE ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AS IT DROPS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THU NIGHT &
FRI...FRONT RANGE TROFFING WOULD STRENGTHEN. IT`LL GET MUCH WARMER
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUCH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER PATTERN DOMINATING MOST OF THE CONUS ANY
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE FROM NM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST ALL THE WAY TO SASKATCHEWAN. ON SUN THE PRIMARY MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO LIFT NE ACROSS NM SUN AFTERNOON & EVE.
THIS WOULD INDUCE INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER
ON SUN WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS KS. BY THIS TIME
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER E ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME STILL ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS
ADVANCING AS FAR E AS CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...
AREAS THRU TUE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON SEVERITY IS NOT & WILL
EXPRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMISH THIS EVENING AS
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD MIXING...EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          50  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        50  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         47  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       49  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  75  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         50  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            50  72  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  74  43  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMR





000
FXUS63 KICT 032033
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THIS AFTERNOON INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NE ONTARIO/
SRN HUDSON BAY. TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE LOW. A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WAS DRAPED FROM JUST N OF THE OH
VALLEY...ACROSS SRN KS...TO NRN NM WHILE A 2ND...MUCH MORE COMPACT
SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TO NRN MN. A SHARP UPPER
DECK RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTAIRS...A WEAK SE-
MOVING SFC TROF HAD ENTERED CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE SHARP...POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM JUST
N OF THE OH VALLEY...THRU KS...TO NRN NM WILL SURGE SE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE LOWER APPALACHIANS ON
WED. IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE THE 2ND SHORTWAVE WILL SURGE SSE FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING
WHERE/WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. SUCH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE AN ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" WITH THE UPPER
DECK RIDGE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE WRN PLAINS UNTIL THU & CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRI. THE GRADUALLY INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
RIDGE AXIS WOULD PRODUCE NICE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK &
WITH A MID-UPPER CYCLONE EJECTING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NE ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AS IT DROPS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THU NIGHT &
FRI...FRONT RANGE TROFFING WOULD STRENGTHEN. IT`LL GET MUCH WARMER
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUCH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER PATTERN DOMINATING MOST OF THE CONUS ANY
SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE FROM NM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST ALL THE WAY TO SASKATCHEWAN. ON SUN THE PRIMARY MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO LIFT NE ACROSS NM SUN AFTERNOON & EVE.
THIS WOULD INDUCE INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER
ON SUN WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS KS. BY THIS TIME
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER E ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME STILL ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS
ADVANCING AS FAR E AS CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...
AREAS THRU TUE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON SEVERITY IS NOT & WILL
EXPRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU AND ALTOCU WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER A WEAK
UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  75  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          50  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        50  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         47  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       49  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  75  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         50  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            50  72  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  74  43  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED





000
FXUS63 KICT 031710
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NW KS WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT WORST...MAY
HAVE TO INSERT SOME SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR WED INTO THU. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WED WITH MANY
SITES PUSHING 80 BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY FRI AFTERNOON...DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND
BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MOVING OUT THE UPPER ENERGY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS TIME
IT STILL LOOKS DRY UNTIL THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH SOME
ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LIKE THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU AND ALTOCU WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER A WEAK
UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          72  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        72  49  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  48  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  45  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  46  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          72  47  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  48  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  49  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    71  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED





000
FXUS63 KICT 031136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NW KS WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT WORST...MAY
HAVE TO INSERT SOME SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR WED INTO THU. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WED WITH MANY
SITES PUSHING 80 BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY FRI AFTERNOON...DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND
BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVEMOVING
OUT THE UPPER ENERGY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS TIME IT
STILL LOOKS DRY UNTIL THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE THE
SUN AND MON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH WINDS SWITCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN
BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          72  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        72  49  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  48  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  45  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  46  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          72  47  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  48  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  49  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    71  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 030747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NW KS WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT WORST...MAY
HAVE TO INSERT SOME SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR WED INTO THU. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WED WITH MANY
SITES PUSHING 80 BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY FRI AFTERNOON...DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND
BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVEIN
MOVING OUT THE UPPER ENERGY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS TIME
IT STILL LOOKS DRY UNTIL THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH SOME
ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LIKE THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KCNU WHERE MOIST GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY...THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS
TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT.
-HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  73  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  49  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  72  49  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  45  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  72  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  72  48  75 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  71  49  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  71  49  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  49  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 030501
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDED FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY...TO ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...THEN ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FAIRLY LIGHT
NW LWR-DECK FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS KS. THE SE THIRD OF KS REMAINED
CLOUDY WHERE CLOSER TO THE TROF. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60
TO 65F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT:
AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK TROF PUSHES SE TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN & CENTRAL KS AS A 2ND MID TO
UPPER TROF DROPS DUE S FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
DRY SO DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.

TUE-THU NIGHT:
ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER-DECK RIDGE
OF MOUNT K2 PROPORTIONS PUSHES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SHARP
UPPER RIDGE WOULD FORCE THE 2ND THE UPPER-DECK TROF THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM IL...ACROSS KS...TO NORTHEAST NM SE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON WED. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER A
NW REGIME ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG(!) UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY E TOWARD THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS NW UPPER
FLOW WOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH ONSETTING SLY LOWER-DECK FLOW (INDUCED BY WEAK LOWER-DECK
TROFFING OVER THE FAR SW) TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THOUGH IT`LL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ON FRI...THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG AS IT CONTINUES ITS
SLOW PUSH E ACROSS KS. WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LEAD (ALBEIT WEAK) MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NE
TOWARD THE NM/CO BORDER SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. AS SUCH
THE WEEKEND WOULD START OUT VERY NICE AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH THAT WOULD COMBINE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PUSH HIGHS
TO AROUND 80F.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS SAT NIGHT FOR AS THE LEAD
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE ACROSS NM...THE
CONTINUALLY INCREASING SLY FLOW WOULD INDUCE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE
TO SURGE DUE N INTO KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT & MON AS THE MID-UPPER CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY E...REACHING THE WRN PLAINS ON MON. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS WOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KCNU WHERE MOIST GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY...THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS
TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  74  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  74  48  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  74  47  75 /   0  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 030501
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDED FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY...TO ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...THEN ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FAIRLY LIGHT
NW LWR-DECK FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS KS. THE SE THIRD OF KS REMAINED
CLOUDY WHERE CLOSER TO THE TROF. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60
TO 65F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT:
AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK TROF PUSHES SE TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN & CENTRAL KS AS A 2ND MID TO
UPPER TROF DROPS DUE S FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
DRY SO DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.

TUE-THU NIGHT:
ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER-DECK RIDGE
OF MOUNT K2 PROPORTIONS PUSHES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SHARP
UPPER RIDGE WOULD FORCE THE 2ND THE UPPER-DECK TROF THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM IL...ACROSS KS...TO NORTHEAST NM SE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON WED. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER A
NW REGIME ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG(!) UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY E TOWARD THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS NW UPPER
FLOW WOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH ONSETTING SLY LOWER-DECK FLOW (INDUCED BY WEAK LOWER-DECK
TROFFING OVER THE FAR SW) TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THOUGH IT`LL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ON FRI...THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG AS IT CONTINUES ITS
SLOW PUSH E ACROSS KS. WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LEAD (ALBEIT WEAK) MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NE
TOWARD THE NM/CO BORDER SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. AS SUCH
THE WEEKEND WOULD START OUT VERY NICE AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH THAT WOULD COMBINE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PUSH HIGHS
TO AROUND 80F.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS SAT NIGHT FOR AS THE LEAD
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE ACROSS NM...THE
CONTINUALLY INCREASING SLY FLOW WOULD INDUCE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE
TO SURGE DUE N INTO KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT & MON AS THE MID-UPPER CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY E...REACHING THE WRN PLAINS ON MON. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS WOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT KCNU WHERE MOIST GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY...THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS
TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  74  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  74  48  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  74  47  75 /   0  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 030044
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDED FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY...TO ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...THEN ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FAIRLY LIGHT
NW LWR-DECK FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS KS. THE SE THIRD OF KS REMAINED
CLOUDY WHERE CLOSER TO THE TROF. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60
TO 65F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT:
AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK TROF PUSHES SE TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN & CENTRAL KS AS A 2ND MID TO
UPPER TROF DROPS DUE S FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
DRY SO DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.

TUE-THU NIGHT:
ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER-DECK RIDGE
OF MOUNT K2 PROPORTIONS PUSHES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SHARP
UPPER RIDGE WOULD FORCE THE 2ND THE UPPER-DECK TROF THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM IL...ACROSS KS...TO NORTHEAST NM SE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON WED. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER A
NW REGIME ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG(!) UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY E TOWARD THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS NW UPPER
FLOW WOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH ONSETTING SLY LOWER-DECK FLOW (INDUCED BY WEAK LOWER-DECK
TROFFING OVER THE FAR SW) TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THOUGH IT`LL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ON FRI...THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG AS IT CONTINUES ITS
SLOW PUSH E ACROSS KS. WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LEAD (ALBEIT WEAK) MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NE
TOWARD THE NM/CO BORDER SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. AS SUCH
THE WEEKEND WOULD START OUT VERY NICE AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH THAT WOULD COMBINE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PUSH HIGHS
TO AROUND 80F.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS SAT NIGHT FOR AS THE LEAD
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE ACROSS NM...THE
CONTINUALLY INCREASING SLY FLOW WOULD INDUCE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE
TO SURGE DUE N INTO KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT & MON AS THE MID-UPPER CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY E...REACHING THE WRN PLAINS ON MON. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS WOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
INFLUX OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...THEN COME AROUND
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH
WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  74  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  74  48  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  74  47  75 /   0  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH





000
FXUS63 KICT 030044
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDED FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY...TO ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...THEN ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE RED RIVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FAIRLY LIGHT
NW LWR-DECK FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS KS. THE SE THIRD OF KS REMAINED
CLOUDY WHERE CLOSER TO THE TROF. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60
TO 65F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT:
AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK TROF PUSHES SE TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN & CENTRAL KS AS A 2ND MID TO
UPPER TROF DROPS DUE S FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
DRY SO DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT.

TUE-THU NIGHT:
ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER-DECK RIDGE
OF MOUNT K2 PROPORTIONS PUSHES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SHARP
UPPER RIDGE WOULD FORCE THE 2ND THE UPPER-DECK TROF THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM IL...ACROSS KS...TO NORTHEAST NM SE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON WED. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD UNDER A
NW REGIME ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG(!) UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY E TOWARD THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS NW UPPER
FLOW WOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH ONSETTING SLY LOWER-DECK FLOW (INDUCED BY WEAK LOWER-DECK
TROFFING OVER THE FAR SW) TO PRODUCE A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

NEXT WEEKEND:
THOUGH IT`LL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY ON FRI...THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WOULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG AS IT CONTINUES ITS
SLOW PUSH E ACROSS KS. WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LEAD (ALBEIT WEAK) MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NE
TOWARD THE NM/CO BORDER SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. AS SUCH
THE WEEKEND WOULD START OUT VERY NICE AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH THAT WOULD COMBINE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PUSH HIGHS
TO AROUND 80F.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS SAT NIGHT FOR AS THE LEAD
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE ACROSS NM...THE
CONTINUALLY INCREASING SLY FLOW WOULD INDUCE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE
TO SURGE DUE N INTO KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT & MON AS THE MID-UPPER CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY E...REACHING THE WRN PLAINS ON MON. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS WOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
INFLUX OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...THEN COME AROUND
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK WAVE SWINGING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL BRING MORE MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AND SWITCH
WINDS TO A NORTH COMPONENT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  74  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          42  72  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
ELDORADO        42  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         39  71  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  72  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          38  74  48  74 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  74  47  75 /   0  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  71  49  75 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         42  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            43  70  48  73 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  71  48  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH





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