Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KICT 180440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE WAVE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE PROJECTED WITHIN SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
DRAW MARGINAL GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE
QUALITY BY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM DIURNAL MLCAPES OF ~1500 J/KG WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DIMINISHING/ENDING
IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISPARITY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE FASTER. A DRYLINE WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY FROM WESTERN KS TO WESTERN
OK...WITH VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. A STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR SETUP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. DEGREE OF CAPPING MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG EML OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE
ECMWF OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS TO
INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY...THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
KS AND POSSIBLY OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS IF THE FASTER ECMWF VERIFIES.
SO MAIN STORM CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS MORE COVERAGE...WOULD BE OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PATCHY MVFR FOG VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE LIGHT
RADIATIONAL FOG. SOME HAZE DUE TO RANGELAND SMOKE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME RETURN MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOWARD DAWN COULD ALSO RESULT IN SCT-BKN STRATUS CIGS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WELL...MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER VALUES WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 40% SATURDAY...AND 40-45% SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  71  51  77 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      35  71  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          35  69  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        35  70  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  72  51  77 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         36  71  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      35  70  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          35  72  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       34  70  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     35  72  48  77 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         35  71  47  77 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            34  71  48  76 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    35  72  48  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 172329
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE WAVE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE PROJECTED WITHIN SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
DRAW MARGINAL GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE
QUALITY BY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM DIURNAL MLCAPES OF ~1500 J/KG WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DIMINISHING/ENDING
IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISPARITY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE FASTER. A DRYLINE WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY FROM WESTERN KS TO WESTERN
OK...WITH VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. A STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR SETUP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. DEGREE OF CAPPING MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG EML OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE
ECMWF OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS TO
INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY...THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
KS AND POSSIBLY OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS IF THE FASTER ECMWF VERIFIES.
SO MAIN STORM CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS MORE COVERAGE...WOULD BE OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PATCHY MVFR FOG VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG. SOME RETURN MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TOWARD DAWN COULD ALSO RESULT IN SCT-BKN STRATUS
CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL...MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER VALUES WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 40% SATURDAY...AND 40-45% SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  71  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      35  71  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          35  70  50  76 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        35  70  50  76 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  72  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         36  72  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      35  71  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          35  72  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       34  70  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     35  71  48  77 /  20   0   0  10
CHANUTE         35  71  47  77 /  20   0   0  10
IOLA            34  71  48  76 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    35  71  48  77 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 171939
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE WAVE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE PROJECTED WITHIN SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
DRAW MARGINAL GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE
QUALITY BY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM DIURNAL MLCAPES OF ~1500 J/KG WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DIMINISHING/ENDING
IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISPARITY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE FASTER. A DRYLINE WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY FROM WESTERN KS TO WESTERN
OK...WITH VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. A STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR SETUP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. DEGREE OF CAPPING MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG EML OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE
ECMWF OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS TO
INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY...THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
KS AND POSSIBLY OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS IF THE FASTER ECMWF VERIFIES.
SO MAIN STORM CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS MORE COVERAGE...WOULD BE OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER VALUES WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITY IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 40% SATURDAY...AND 40-45% SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  71  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      34  71  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          34  70  50  76 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        35  70  50  76 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  72  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         36  72  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      35  71  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          35  72  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       34  70  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     35  71  48  77 /  20   0   0  10
CHANUTE         35  71  47  77 /  20   0   0  10
IOLA            34  71  48  76 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    35  71  48  77 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 171729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 50 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER
MAXES AND TO INCREASE POPS AS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY: CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN KS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...WITH A 600-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OK.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS...AS SATURATION INCREASES IN THE MID
LAYERS...BUT THIS AIR WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND...BUT MID LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN 12-18Z. NOT
EXPECTING VERY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT PROBABLY MORE OF A HIGH POP...LOW QPF AMOUNT TYPE OF
EVENT WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. EXPECTING QPF
AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND.

FRI: A NICE SPRING DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRI...AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SAT-SUN: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE DEEPER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FIRST OVER
CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THIS SHOWER CHANCE
INCREASING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SBCAPE VALUES...INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. NOT ALOT OF SHEAR...SO
POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...FOR A WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SUN.  SHEAR AGAIN ISNT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WITH
GOOD SOAKING RAINS.

MON-WED: WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE INTO
WED...SO CONSENSUS IS TO TWEAK TEMPS UP FOR BOTH TUE INTO WED.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INCREASE FOR WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  36  71  51 /  80  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  34  71  51 /  80   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  34  70  50 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        49  35  70  50 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  36  72  51 /  70  10   0   0
RUSSELL         54  36  72  52 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  35  71  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          54  35  72  52 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       53  34  70  51 /  20   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  35  71  48 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         52  35  71  47 /  60  20   0   0
IOLA            50  34  71  48 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  35  71  48 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 171624
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 50 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER
MAXES AND TO INCREASE POPS AS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY: CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN KS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...WITH A 600-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OK.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS...AS SATURATION INCREASES IN THE MID
LAYERS...BUT THIS AIR WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND...BUT MID LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN 12-18Z. NOT
EXPECTING VERY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT PROBABLY MORE OF A HIGH POP...LOW QPF AMOUNT TYPE OF
EVENT WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. EXPECTING QPF
AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND.

FRI: A NICE SPRING DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRI...AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SAT-SUN: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE DEEPER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FIRST OVER
CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THIS SHOWER CHANCE
INCREASING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SBCAPE VALUES...INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. NOT ALOT OF SHEAR...SO
POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...FOR A WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SUN.  SHEAR AGAIN ISNT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WITH
GOOD SOAKING RAINS.

MON-WED: WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE INTO
WED...SO CONSENSUS IS TO TWEAK TEMPS UP FOR BOTH TUE INTO WED.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INCREASE FOR WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND CAUSING A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND IS NARROW...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN
TERMINALS IMPACTED ARE KHUT/KICT/KCNU. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED...AND TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. HAVE BEST
GUESS IN TEMPO GROUP FOR WHEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THINK CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT IF THEY
DO DROP...IT WILL BE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...LONG TERM IFR IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR KHUT/KICT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND BY KCNU BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  36  71  52 /  80  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      51  34  71  51 /  80   0   0  10
NEWTON          49  34  70  51 /  70  10   0  10
ELDORADO        49  35  70  51 /  70  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  36  72  51 /  70  10   0  10
RUSSELL         54  36  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      52  35  71  51 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          54  35  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       53  34  70  51 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  35  74  50 /  60  20   0  10
CHANUTE         52  35  73  50 /  60  20   0  10
IOLA            50  34  72  49 /  60  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  35  73  50 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 171136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY: CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN KS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...WITH A 600-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OK.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS...AS SATURATION INCREASES IN THE MID
LAYERS...BUT THIS AIR WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND...BUT MID LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN 12-18Z. NOT
EXPECTING VERY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT PROBABLY MORE OF A HIGH POP...LOW QPF AMOUNT TYPE OF
EVENT WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. EXPECTING QPF
AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND.

FRI: A NICE SPRING DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRI...AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SAT-SUN: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE DEEPER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FIRST OVER
CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THIS SHOWER CHANCE
INCREASING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SBCAPE VALUES...INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. NOT ALOT OF SHEAR...SO
POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...FOR A WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SUN.  SHEAR AGAIN ISNT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WITH
GOOD SOAKING RAINS.

MON-WED: WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE INTO
WED...SO CONSENSUS IS TO TWEAK TEMPS UP FOR BOTH TUE INTO WED.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INCREASE FOR WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND CAUSING A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND IS NARROW...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN
TERMINALS IMPACTED ARE KHUT/KICT/KCNU. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED...AND TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. HAVE BEST
GUESS IN TEMPO GROUP FOR WHEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THINK CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT IF THEY
DO DROP...IT WILL BE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...LONG TERM IFR IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR KHUT/KICT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND BY KCNU BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  38  71  52 /  60  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      55  37  71  51 /  40   0   0  10
NEWTON          53  37  70  51 /  50  10   0  10
ELDORADO        53  37  70  51 /  60  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  38  72  51 /  70  10   0  10
RUSSELL         56  37  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      54  37  71  51 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          55  37  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  36  70  51 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  38  74  50 /  60  20   0  10
CHANUTE         54  36  73  50 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            53  36  72  49 /  60  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  37  73  50 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 170801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY: CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN KS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...WITH A 600-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OK.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS...AS SATURATION INCREASES IN THE MID
LAYERS...BUT THIS AIR WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND...BUT MID LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN 12-18Z. NOT
EXPECTING VERY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT PROBABLY MORE OF A HIGH POP...LOW QPF AMOUNT TYPE OF
EVENT WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. EXPECTING QPF
AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND.

FRI: A NICE SPRING DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRI...AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SAT-SUN: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE DEEPER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FIRST OVER
CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THIS SHOWER CHANCE
INCREASING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SBCAPE VALUES...INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. NOT ALOT OF SHEAR...SO
POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...FOR A WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SUN.  SHEAR AGAIN ISNT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WITH
GOOD SOAKING RAINS.

MON-WED: WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE INTO
WED...SO CONSENSUS IS TO TWEAK TEMPS UP FOR BOTH TUE INTO WED.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INCREASE FOR WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BY DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN KANSAS TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...CLOUD BASES AND
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION THE MVFR
POTENTIAL WILL BE OMITTED FROM THIS FORECAST.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  38  71  52 /  60  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      55  37  71  51 /  40   0   0  10
NEWTON          53  37  70  51 /  50  10   0  10
ELDORADO        53  37  70  51 /  60  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  38  72  51 /  70  10   0  10
RUSSELL         56  37  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      54  37  71  51 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          55  37  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  36  70  51 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  38  74  50 /  60  20   0  10
CHANUTE         54  36  73  50 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            53  36  72  49 /  60  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  37  73  50 /  60  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 170430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD TONIGHT...DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH EAST...EJECTING
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO INDUCE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LEE TROUGHING
AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN WILL BE BETTER
FOR THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAIN CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY
DRAWING GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THERE ARE
SOME VARIANCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION MID-LATE WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THE TROUGH EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE GFS. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
PM/EVE...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BY DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN KANSAS TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...CLOUD BASES AND
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION THE MVFR
POTENTIAL WILL BE OMITTED FROM THIS FORECAST.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER (RED FLAG CRITERIA) WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 135...RESULTING FROM STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-28% IS EXPECTED. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  55  38  70 /  40  60   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  56  38  70 /  30  50   0   0
NEWTON          39  55  38  70 /  30  50   0   0
ELDORADO        41  55  38  70 /  30  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  56  39  71 /  40  70  10   0
RUSSELL         36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          37  56  37  71 /  10  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       38  56  37  70 /  20  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  58  42  71 /  10  60  20   0
CHANUTE         42  55  39  71 /  20  60  20   0
IOLA            41  54  39  70 /  20  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    42  57  40  70 /  20  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 162329
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD TONIGHT...DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH EAST...EJECTING
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO INDUCE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LEE TROUGHING
AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN WILL BE BETTER
FOR THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAIN CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY
DRAWING GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THERE ARE
SOME VARIANCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION MID-LATE WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THE TROUGH EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE GFS. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
PM/EVE...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN KANSAS TERMINALS FROM
MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...CLOUD BASES AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREA AND DURATION
THEY WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER (RED FLAG CRITERIA) WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 135...RESULTING FROM STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-28% IS EXPECTED. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  55  38  70 /  50  60   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  56  38  70 /  40  50   0   0
NEWTON          39  55  38  70 /  40  50   0   0
ELDORADO        41  55  38  70 /  40  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  56  39  71 /  50  70  10   0
RUSSELL         36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          37  56  37  71 /  10  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       38  56  37  70 /  20  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  58  42  71 /  20  60  20   0
CHANUTE         42  55  39  71 /  30  60  20   0
IOLA            41  54  39  70 /  30  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    42  57  40  70 /  20  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 161937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD TONIGHT...DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH EAST...EJECTING
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO INDUCE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LEE TROUGHING
AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN WILL BE BETTER
FOR THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAIN CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY
DRAWING GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THERE ARE
SOME VARIANCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION MID-LATE WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THE TROUGH EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE GFS. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
PM/EVE...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 40
KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS IN THE 6-10K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT/TOWARD MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER (RED FLAG CRITERIA) WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 135...RESULTING FROM STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-28% IS EXPECTED. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  55  38  70 /  50  60   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  56  38  70 /  40  50   0   0
NEWTON          39  55  38  70 /  40  50   0   0
ELDORADO        41  55  38  70 /  40  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  56  39  71 /  50  70  10   0
RUSSELL         36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          37  56  37  71 /  10  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       38  56  37  70 /  20  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  58  42  71 /  20  60  20   0
CHANUTE         42  55  39  71 /  30  60  20   0
IOLA            41  54  39  70 /  30  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    42  57  40  70 /  20  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 161751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 26 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KNOTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON THROUGH 6 PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS KS
TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. 850H WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS WILL
MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SO SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...BY AROUND 16Z. SO WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER VALUES...SO WILL ALSO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING (SEE
FIRE SECTION BELOW) FOR THE SAME AREA AS THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT-THU: ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TAKING THIS IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN AND ALSO
NOT PULLING IN AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST. CURRENT NAM/WRF AND GFS ACTUALLY KEEP LOWER LAYERS FAIRLY
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN OVER SRN KS.
SO WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
LACKING. THINK CENTRAL KS MAY ONLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST.
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT
THINK THIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

FRI: WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE WEST BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THIS
WILL LEAD A NICE DOWNSLOPE DAY ON FRI...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR SAT INTO SUN.  MOISTURE RETURN
ISNT TOO GREAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...BUT JET STREAK IN THE
MID LAYERS MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET.  SO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN LOOK REASONABLE.

DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK...AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 40
KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS IN THE 6-10K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT/TOWARD MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
VALUES...FROM 9AM TO 6PM. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  55  38 /  10  30  60   0
HUTCHINSON      71  39  56  38 /  10  30  50   0
NEWTON          68  39  55  38 /  10  20  50   0
ELDORADO        68  41  55  38 /  10  20  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  56  39 /  10  30  60  10
RUSSELL         69  36  57  36 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  36  57  36 /  10  20  20   0
SALINA          72  37  56  37 /  10  20  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  38  56  37 /  10  20  30   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  42  58  42 /  10  10  60  20
CHANUTE         67  42  55  39 /  10  10  60  20
IOLA            66  41  54  39 /  10  10  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  42  57  40 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 161456
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
956 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 26 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KNOTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON THROUGH 6 PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS KS
TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. 850H WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS WILL
MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SO SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...BY AROUND 16Z. SO WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER VALUES...SO WILL ALSO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING (SEE
FIRE SECTION BELOW) FOR THE SAME AREA AS THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT-THU: ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TAKING THIS IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN AND ALSO
NOT PULLING IN AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST. CURRENT NAM/WRF AND GFS ACTUALLY KEEP LOWER LAYERS FAIRLY
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN OVER SRN KS.
SO WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
LACKING. THINK CENTRAL KS MAY ONLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST.
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT
THINK THIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

FRI: WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE WEST BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THIS
WILL LEAD A NICE DOWNSLOPE DAY ON FRI...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR SAT INTO SUN.  MOISTURE RETURN
ISNT TOO GREAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...BUT JET STREAK IN THE
MID LAYERS MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET.  SO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN LOOK REASONABLE.

DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK...AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE BLUSTERY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT
AND WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL PERSIST AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 26-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
OR GREATER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE TIMING HAS SLOWED
SOME...WITH PASSAGE THROUGH KRSL/KSLN THIS AFTERNOON...KICT THIS
EVENING AND KCNU TOWARDS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
VFR AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
VALUES...FROM 9AM TO 6PM. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  56  37 /  10  20  30   0
HUTCHINSON      71  39  56  36 /  10  20  30   0
NEWTON          68  39  55  36 /  10  20  30   0
ELDORADO        68  41  54  37 /  10  10  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  56  38 /  10  10  40  10
RUSSELL         69  36  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  36  57  35 /  10  20  20   0
SALINA          72  37  56  35 /  10  20  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  38  56  36 /  10  20  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  42  58  41 /  10  10  60  20
CHANUTE         67  42  55  39 /  10  10  50  20
IOLA            66  41  54  38 /  10  10  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  42  57  40 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 161137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS KS
TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. 850H WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS WILL
MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SO SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...BY AROUND 16Z. SO WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER VALUES...SO WILL ALSO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING (SEE
FIRE SECTION BELOW) FOR THE SAME AREA AS THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT-THU: ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TAKING THIS IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN AND ALSO
NOT PULLING IN AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST. CURRENT NAM/WRF AND GFS ACTUALLY KEEP LOWER LAYERS FAIRLY
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN OVER SRN KS.
SO WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
LACKING. THINK CENTRAL KS MAY ONLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST.
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT
THINK THIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

FRI: WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE WEST BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THIS
WILL LEAD A NICE DOWNSLOPE DAY ON FRI...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR SAT INTO SUN.  MOISTURE RETURN
ISNT TOO GREAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...BUT JET STREAK IN THE
MID LAYERS MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET.  SO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN LOOK REASONABLE.

DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK...AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE BLUSTERY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT
AND WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL PERSIST AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 26-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
OR GREATER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE TIMING HAS SLOWED
SOME...WITH PASSAGE THROUGH KRSL/KSLN THIS AFTERNOON...KICT THIS
EVENING AND KCNU TOWARDS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
VFR AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
VALUES...FROM 9AM TO 6PM. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  56  37 /  10  20  30   0
HUTCHINSON      71  39  56  36 /  10  20  30   0
NEWTON          68  39  55  36 /  10  20  30   0
ELDORADO        68  41  54  37 /  10  10  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  56  38 /  10  10  40  10
RUSSELL         69  36  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  36  57  35 /  10  20  20   0
SALINA          72  37  56  35 /  10  20  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  38  56  36 /  10  20  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  42  58  41 /  10  10  60  20
CHANUTE         67  42  55  39 /  10  10  50  20
IOLA            66  41  54  38 /  10  10  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  42  57  40 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 160813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS KS
TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. 850H WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS WILL
MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SO SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...BY AROUND 16Z. SO WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER VALUES...SO WILL ALSO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING (SEE
FIRE SECTION BELOW) FOR THE SAME AREA AS THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT-THU: ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TAKING THIS IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN AND ALSO
NOT PULLING IN AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST. CURRENT NAM/WRF AND GFS ACTUALLY KEEP LOWER LAYERS FAIRLY
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN OVER SRN KS.
SO WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
LACKING. THINK CENTRAL KS MAY ONLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST.
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT
THINK THIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

FRI: WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE WEST BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THIS
WILL LEAD A NICE DOWNSLOPE DAY ON FRI...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR SAT INTO SUN.  MOISTURE RETURN
ISNT TOO GREAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...BUT JET STREAK IN THE
MID LAYERS MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET.  SO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN LOOK REASONABLE.

DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK...AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON WED ARE THE
AVIATION ISSUES FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.

THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAFS WAS TO INSERT SOME WIND SHEAR AT
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL. THIS IS DUE TO VERY
STRONG(40-45KT) SOUTH WINDS RIGHT OFF OF THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW FOR KRSL AND
EVENTUALLY KSLN AND KHUT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE VFR CONDITIONS STAYING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
VALUES...FROM 9AM TO 6PM. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  56  37 /  10  20  30   0
HUTCHINSON      71  39  56  36 /  10  20  30   0
NEWTON          68  39  55  36 /  10  20  30   0
ELDORADO        68  41  54  37 /  10  10  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  56  38 /  10  10  40  10
RUSSELL         69  36  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  36  57  35 /  10  20  20   0
SALINA          72  37  56  35 /  10  20  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  38  56  36 /  10  20  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  42  58  41 /  10  10  60  20
CHANUTE         67  42  55  39 /  10  10  50  20
IOLA            66  41  54  38 /  10  10  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  42  57  40 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 160411
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1111 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY IS POTENTIAL WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BRISK THRU
THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND MORE SO DEEPER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MIXING BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...THOUGH
THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY DO SO FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY ALSO BE A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
WITH IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS TROF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODEST PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON THURSDAY.
WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS IT APPEARS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A DRY AND MILDER DAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ANOTHER UPPER TROF LOOKS TO VENTURE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FOR AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ALOFT AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON WED ARE THE
AVIATION ISSUES FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.

THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAFS WAS TO INSERT SOME WIND SHEAR AT
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL. THIS IS DUE TO VERY
STRONG(40-45KT) SOUTH WINDS RIGHT OFF OF THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS IN THE
AFTERNOON...FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW FOR KRSL AND
EVENTUALLY KSLN AND KHUT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN THE VFR CONDITIONS STAYING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY
VALUES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IN THESE AREAS...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND SPEED FORECASTS IN THE 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER
WHICH WOULD GIVE EXTREME VALUES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PLAN TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT ADDITIONAL DATA AND
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...IF CONFIDENCE ON
REACHING THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASES.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    40  70  41  50 /   0  10  20  60
HUTCHINSON      39  70  38  49 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          40  69  38  48 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        39  69  40  51 /   0  10  20  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  69  42  51 /   0  10  20  70
RUSSELL         40  68  34  50 /   0  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      40  69  35  49 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          41  70  36  50 /   0  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       39  70  37  50 /   0  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60
CHANUTE         37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  60
IOLA            37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 152336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY IS POTENTIAL WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BRISK THRU
THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND MORE SO DEEPER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MIXING BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...THOUGH
THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY DO SO FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY ALSO BE A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
WITH IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS TROF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODEST PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON THURSDAY.
WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS IT APPEARS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A DRY AND MILDER DAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ANOTHER UPPER TROF LOOKS TO VENTURE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FOR AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ALOFT AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGHING TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON WED...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 30-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS KEEPING WINDS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE ALONG WITH TURNING THEM TO THE WEST BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY
VALUES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IN THESE AREAS...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND SPEED FORECASTS IN THE 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER
WHICH WOULD GIVE EXTREME VALUES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PLAN TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT ADDITIONAL DATA AND
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...IF CONFIDENCE ON
REACHING THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASES.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    40  70  41  50 /   0  10  20  60
HUTCHINSON      39  70  38  49 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          40  69  38  48 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        39  69  40  51 /   0  10  20  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  69  42  51 /   0  10  20  70
RUSSELL         40  68  34  50 /   0  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      40  69  35  49 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          41  70  36  50 /   0  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       39  70  37  50 /   0  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60
CHANUTE         37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  60
IOLA            37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 152022
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY IS POTENTIAL WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BRISK THRU
THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF GRADIENT AND MORE SO DEEPER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MIXING BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...THOUGH
THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY DO SO FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY ALSO BE A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
WITH IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS TROF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODEST PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON THURSDAY.
WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS IT APPEARS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A DRY AND MILDER DAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

ANOTHER UPPER TROF LOOKS TO VENTURE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FOR AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ALOFT AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25
MPH AFTER 03-05Z. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SPEEDS RELAX
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY
VALUES RESULTING IN POTENTIAL EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IN THESE AREAS...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND SPEED FORECASTS IN THE 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER ON THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER
WHICH WOULD GIVE EXTREME VALUES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. PLAN TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT ADDITIONAL DATA AND
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...IF CONFIDENCE ON
REACHING THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASES.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    40  70  41  50 /   0  10  20  60
HUTCHINSON      39  70  38  49 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          40  69  38  48 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        39  69  40  51 /   0  10  20  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  69  42  51 /   0  10  20  70
RUSSELL         40  68  34  50 /   0  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      40  69  35  49 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          41  70  36  50 /   0  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       39  70  37  50 /   0  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60
CHANUTE         37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  60
IOLA            37  67  40  51 /   0  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    37  67  41  53 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 151756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY-WED: AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...WILL SEE A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THIS AFTERNOON... AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE S-SW WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS WARM ADVECTION RETURNS
TO THE WRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ALMOST 30
DEGREES FROM THE COLD LOWS IN THE 20S. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(SEE BELOW).

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WED AS DRY SW WINDS SHIFT INTO
AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
KS...WHICH WILL LESSON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE...AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES/GOOD MIXING MAY LEAD TO WINDS THAT ARE BORDERLINE WIND
ADVISORY FOR WED AFTERNOON.

WED NIGHT-THU: A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL SATURATION WILL
INCREASE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS LATE WED NIGHT AND FOR THE
WHOLE AREA ON THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST
AREAS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
PULL SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
COMING IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN AS THU PROGRESSES. SO WILL CUT
BACK SOME ON THE RAIN/SNOW MIX CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
VARIETY.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
NICE SPRING DAY. BUT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FOR A SHOWER CHANCE. COULD SEE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL FOR SAT NIGHT...AS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE
ACROSS SRN KS.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SO COULD SEE THIS
SHOWER CHANCE LAST INTO SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...BOTH SUGGEST A SHOWER AND A FEW STORM
CHANCE LINGERING INTO SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25
MPH AFTER 03-05Z. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE SPEEDS RELAX
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.  DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS GUSTY WIND AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
18 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED GROUNDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.

THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL TRANSLATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO
ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE ON WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO
POSSIBLY EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ON WED AS
WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  42  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  41  73  41 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          62  42  73  41 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        63  41  72  43 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  42  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         67  43  67  36 /   0   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      66  42  70  38 /   0   0  10  50
SALINA          66  43  71  39 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       64  41  72  40 /   0   0  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     64  41  68  44 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         63  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            61  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  40  68  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 151141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY-WED: AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...WILL SEE A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THIS AFTERNOON... AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE S-SW WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS WARM ADVECTION RETURNS
TO THE WRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ALMOST 30
DEGREES FROM THE COLD LOWS IN THE 20S. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(SEE BELOW).

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WED AS DRY SW WINDS SHIFT INTO
AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
KS...WHICH WILL LESSON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE...AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES/GOOD MIXING MAY LEAD TO WINDS THAT ARE BORDERLINE WIND
ADVISORY FOR WED AFTERNOON.

WED NIGHT-THU: A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL SATURATION WILL
INCREASE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS LATE WED NIGHT AND FOR THE
WHOLE AREA ON THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST
AREAS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
PULL SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
COMING IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN AS THU PROGRESSES. SO WILL CUT
BACK SOME ON THE RAIN/SNOW MIX CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
VARIETY.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
NICE SPRING DAY. BUT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FOR A SHOWER CHANCE. COULD SEE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL FOR SAT NIGHT...AS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE
ACROSS SRN KS.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SO COULD SEE THIS
SHOWER CHANCE LAST INTO SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...BOTH SUGGEST A SHOWER AND A FEW STORM
CHANCE LINGERING INTO SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND
AFTER BRIEFLY DECREASING AT SUNSET...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE CAUSING WINDS TO BE STOUT OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.  DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS GUSTY WIND AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
18 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED GROUNDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.

THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL TRANSLATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO
ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE ON WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO
POSSIBLY EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ON WED AS
WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  42  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  41  73  41 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          59  42  73  41 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        60  41  72  43 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  42  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         64  43  67  36 /   0   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      63  42  70  38 /   0   0  10  50
SALINA          63  43  71  39 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       61  41  72  40 /   0   0  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  41  68  44 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            58  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  40  68  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 150821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY-WED: AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...WILL SEE A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THIS AFTERNOON... AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE S-SW WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS WARM ADVECTION RETURNS
TO THE WRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ALMOST 30
DEGREES FROM THE COLD LOWS IN THE 20S. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(SEE BELOW).

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WED AS DRY SW WINDS SHIFT INTO
AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
KS...WHICH WILL LESSON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE...AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES/GOOD MIXING MAY LEAD TO WINDS THAT ARE BORDERLINE WIND
ADVISORY FOR WED AFTERNOON.

WED NIGHT-THU: A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL SATURATION WILL
INCREASE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS LATE WED NIGHT AND FOR THE
WHOLE AREA ON THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST
AREAS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
PULL SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
COMING IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN AS THU PROGRESSES. SO WILL CUT
BACK SOME ON THE RAIN/SNOW MIX CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
VARIETY.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
NICE SPRING DAY. BUT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FOR A SHOWER CHANCE. COULD SEE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL FOR SAT NIGHT...AS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE
ACROSS SRN KS.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SO COULD SEE THIS
SHOWER CHANCE LAST INTO SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...BOTH SUGGEST A SHOWER AND A FEW STORM
CHANCE LINGERING INTO SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH TUE EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH LEE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-135. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.  DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS GUSTY WIND AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
18 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED GROUNDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.

THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL TRANSLATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO
ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE ON WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO
POSSIBLY EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ON WED AS
WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  42  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  41  73  41 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          59  42  73  41 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        60  41  72  43 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  42  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         64  43  67  36 /   0   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      63  42  70  38 /   0   0  10  50
SALINA          63  43  71  39 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       61  41  72  40 /   0   0  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  41  68  44 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            58  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  40  68  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities