Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KICT 240726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 240726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 240420
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 240420
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 232304
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT
IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STEEPENING LEE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 232304
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT
IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STEEPENING LEE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 232003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ANOTHER PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN KS. ANTICIPATING THE LATTER ACTIVITY TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
ONLY WENT VCTS AT SLN. DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  92  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         67  99  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  89  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 232003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ANOTHER PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN KS. ANTICIPATING THE LATTER ACTIVITY TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
ONLY WENT VCTS AT SLN. DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  92  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         67  99  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  89  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 231746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ANOTHER PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN KS. ANTICIPATING THE LATTER ACTIVITY TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
ONLY WENT VCTS AT SLN. DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 231450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 231450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 230438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.  COULD SEE
KSLN STAY NEAR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT
WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAINING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG
I-70 IN NE KS NEAR KTOP.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES AND WASH OUT ALONG A
LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU BY WED MORNING. NOT A LOT OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CHANCE.
SO THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY SLIM
OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO
KCNU...GENERALLY ALONG THE LINE WHERE THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED.  BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT...AND COULD
SEE POPS COMPLETELY REMOVED WITH A LATER UPDATE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  93  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 230438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.  COULD SEE
KSLN STAY NEAR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT
WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAINING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG
I-70 IN NE KS NEAR KTOP.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES AND WASH OUT ALONG A
LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU BY WED MORNING. NOT A LOT OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CHANCE.
SO THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY SLIM
OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO
KCNU...GENERALLY ALONG THE LINE WHERE THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED.  BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT...AND COULD
SEE POPS COMPLETELY REMOVED WITH A LATER UPDATE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  93  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 230055
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
755 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.  COULD SEE
KSLN STAY NEAR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT
WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAINING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG
I-70 IN NE KS NEAR KTOP.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES AND WASH OUT ALONG A
LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU BY WED MORNING. NOT A LOT OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CHANCE.
SO THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY SLIM
OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO
KCNU...GENERALLY ALONG THE LINE WHERE THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED.  BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT...AND COULD
SEE POPS COMPLETELY REMOVED WITH A LATER UPDATE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF NRN KS AND BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NE AND EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON WED.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  93  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 222341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF NRN KS AND BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NE AND EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON WED.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  93  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 222341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF NRN KS AND BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NE AND EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON WED.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  93  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221956
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WAS
STILL IN NEBRASKA AT 1730Z. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME UNDULAR BORE
TYPE ACTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY GOOD TURBULENCE IN THESE
AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BE NEAR KCNU. THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT FOG OR IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING. THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT
CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THE WE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

COOK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  94  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  67  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WAS
STILL IN NEBRASKA AT 1730Z. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME UNDULAR BORE
TYPE ACTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY GOOD TURBULENCE IN THESE
AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BE NEAR KCNU. THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT FOG OR IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING. THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT
CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THE WE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  73  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     100  73  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  73  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  73  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        101  71  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     101  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         104  73  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
CHANUTE         98  74  93  69 /  10  30  20  20
IOLA            98  74  92  68 /  10  30  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  94  69 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 221756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WAS
STILL IN NEBRASKA AT 1730Z. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME UNDULAR BORE
TYPE ACTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY GOOD TURBULENCE IN THESE
AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BE NEAR KCNU. THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT FOG OR IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING. THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT
CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THE WE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  73  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     100  73  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  73  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  73  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        101  71  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     101  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         104  73  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
CHANUTE         98  74  93  69 /  10  30  20  20
IOLA            98  74  92  68 /  10  30  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  94  69 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN GENERATE SOME FOG AT
KICT/KCNU. GIVEN LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS
TODAY. FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR KRSL/KSLN LATE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
HINTING FAIRLY STRONGLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. CONSIDERABLE QUESTION
AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND STRONG CAP. SO GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO GO DRY AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         105  74  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      103  74  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  95  70 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         97  74  93  69 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            97  74  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    97  74  94  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 221204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN GENERATE SOME FOG AT
KICT/KCNU. GIVEN LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS
TODAY. FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR KRSL/KSLN LATE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
HINTING FAIRLY STRONGLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. CONSIDERABLE QUESTION
AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND STRONG CAP. SO GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO GO DRY AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         105  74  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      103  74  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  95  70 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         97  74  93  69 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            97  74  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    97  74  94  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 220746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO VENTURE INTO NRN KS AFTER
00Z/WED. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTIVE CHANCE WILL GET...UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAN HELP
PUSH IT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z/WED.  SO WILL LEAVE A VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE IT
ADDED TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES...IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 06Z/WED AND
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TUE NIGHT.  BUT WILL NOT SHIFT ANY WINDS...UNTIL
LATER FORECASTS. WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN KS AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         105  74  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      103  74  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  95  70 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         97  74  93  69 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            97  74  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    97  74  94  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 220746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO VENTURE INTO NRN KS AFTER
00Z/WED. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTIVE CHANCE WILL GET...UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAN HELP
PUSH IT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z/WED.  SO WILL LEAVE A VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE IT
ADDED TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES...IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 06Z/WED AND
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TUE NIGHT.  BUT WILL NOT SHIFT ANY WINDS...UNTIL
LATER FORECASTS. WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN KS AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         105  74  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      103  74  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  95  70 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         97  74  93  69 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            97  74  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    97  74  94  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 220455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING...SO WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY GO.  CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WRN KS CONTINUES TO
FESTER TO THE WEST OF KDDC. THINK MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THIS CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL STEERING
WINDS ARE WEAK AS MOVE FURTHER EAST. ALSO 850-700H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALSO DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO VENTURE INTO NRN KS AFTER
00Z/WED. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTIVE CHANCE WILL GET...UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAN HELP
PUSH IT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z/WED.  SO WILL LEAVE A VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE IT
ADDED TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES...IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 06Z/WED AND
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TUE NIGHT.  BUT WILL NOT SHIFT ANY WINDS...UNTIL
LATER FORECASTS. WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN KS AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  99  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74 100  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        74  99  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 102  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 105  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  91 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 220455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING...SO WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY GO.  CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WRN KS CONTINUES TO
FESTER TO THE WEST OF KDDC. THINK MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THIS CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL STEERING
WINDS ARE WEAK AS MOVE FURTHER EAST. ALSO 850-700H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALSO DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO VENTURE INTO NRN KS AFTER
00Z/WED. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTIVE CHANCE WILL GET...UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAN HELP
PUSH IT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z/WED.  SO WILL LEAVE A VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE IT
ADDED TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES...IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 06Z/WED AND
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TUE NIGHT.  BUT WILL NOT SHIFT ANY WINDS...UNTIL
LATER FORECASTS. WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN KS AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  99  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74 100  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        74  99  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 102  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 105  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  91 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 220051
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
751 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING...SO WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY GO.  CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WRN KS CONTINUES TO
FESTER TO THE WEST OF KDDC. THINK MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THIS CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL STEERING
WINDS ARE WEAK AS MOVE FURTHER EAST. ALSO 850-700H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALSO DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74 100  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        74  99  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 104  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  96 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 212343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74 100  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        74  99  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 104  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  96 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 212343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74 100  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        74  99  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 104  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  96 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 212030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR AVIATION IS WIND. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 15G25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE TO SIMILAR LEVELS TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COOK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73 100  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        73  99  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         73 103  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      73 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 104  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  97  74  96 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    71  97  73  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 212030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR AVIATION IS WIND. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 15G25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE TO SIMILAR LEVELS TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COOK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73 100  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        73  99  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         73 103  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      73 102  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 104  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  97  74  96 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    71  97  73  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 211724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THEY HAD RISEN INTO THE MID 70S AS OF
16Z AND WERE HOLDING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN THE
HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...PUSHING THEM INTO THE 105 TO
108 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...COORDINATED AND EXTENDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES SYNC UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE BUT DECENT INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR AVIATION IS WIND. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 15G25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE TO SIMILAR LEVELS TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  74 101  74 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          97  73 100  73 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  73  99  73 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL        103  73 103  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  73 102  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA         103  76 104  75 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON      100  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         94  72  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            94  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-099-100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THEY HAD RISEN INTO THE MID 70S AS OF
16Z AND WERE HOLDING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN THE
HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...PUSHING THEM INTO THE 105 TO
108 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...COORDINATED AND EXTENDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES SYNC UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE BUT DECENT INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR AVIATION IS WIND. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 15G25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE TO SIMILAR LEVELS TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  74 101  74 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          97  73 100  73 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  73  99  73 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL        103  73 103  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  73 102  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA         103  76 104  75 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON      100  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         94  72  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            94  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-099-100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 211137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES SYNC UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE BUT DECENT INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KHUT/KICT THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCT005-007 STRATUS LURKING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH GOOD
HEATING/MIXING. SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY FOR
KICT-KCNU WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGHER. SMALL CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AT KRSL...BUT TIMING/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  74 101  74 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          97  74 100  73 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  73  99  73 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL        102  75 103  73 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  74 102  73 /   0  20  10  20
SALINA         103  76 104  75 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON      100  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  72  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         94  73  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            94  73  99  74 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  72  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-099-100.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 211137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES SYNC UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE BUT DECENT INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KHUT/KICT THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCT005-007 STRATUS LURKING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH GOOD
HEATING/MIXING. SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY FOR
KICT-KCNU WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGHER. SMALL CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AT KRSL...BUT TIMING/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  74 101  74 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          97  74 100  73 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  73  99  73 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL        102  75 103  73 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  74 102  73 /   0  20  10  20
SALINA         103  76 104  75 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON      100  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  72  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         94  73  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            94  73  99  74 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  72  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-099-100.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053.

&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities