Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 160748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG I-70...SOME EARLY
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF SO...IT WOULD LIKELY
BE IN THE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 160337
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMNANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG I-70...SOME EARLY
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF SO...IT WOULD LIKELY
BE IN THE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  20  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  30  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  20  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  10  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 152307
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMNANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DURING TUESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  40  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  30  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  20  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 152307
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMNANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DURING TUESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  40  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  30  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  20  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 151940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KEMP TO JUST NW OF
KICT TO KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AND MVFR CIGS AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A
FEW REPORTS OF IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. EXPECT THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF TSRA..AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY GET GOING IN AND NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF FOR THE 21Z-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME.

BUT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS FOR
TSRA...AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH FOR THE KCNU FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR THE STRATUS DECK AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LAST...AS DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS.  SO
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR KRSL/KSLN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  40  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  30  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  20  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 151940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO THIS EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MID PM INTO
EARLY EVE...BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WANE/END THURSDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE...PRESENTLY DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE REMNANTS GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN EASTWARD
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH...HELPING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2
INCHES OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ARE PROGGED ON THE GFS AS THE REMANTS AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT...WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KEMP TO JUST NW OF
KICT TO KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AND MVFR CIGS AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A
FEW REPORTS OF IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. EXPECT THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF TSRA..AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY GET GOING IN AND NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF FOR THE 21Z-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME.

BUT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS FOR
TSRA...AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH FOR THE KCNU FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR THE STRATUS DECK AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LAST...AS DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS.  SO
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR KRSL/KSLN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      55  76  63  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          54  74  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        54  75  62  83 /  10  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  77  64  85 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  73  62  83 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      53  74  62  85 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          49  73  62  83 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       53  74  63  83 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  76  63  81 /  40  10  30  20
CHANUTE         55  74  60  80 /  30  10  40  20
IOLA            55  73  59  79 /  20  10  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  61  81 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 151747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KMHK TO NEAR KHUT TO
JUST NORTH OF KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AS THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SO WILL SEE MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BECOME CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY GET GOING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER IN SE KS AFTER ABOUT 21Z.  SO WILL ADJUST POPS SOME AS MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WILL JUST SEE INCREASING CLOUDY SKIES. IF
A STORM CAN GET GOING...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS MAY LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.  BUT
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS...AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KEMP TO JUST NW OF
KICT TO KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AND MVFR CIGS AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A
FEW REPORTS OF IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. EXPECT THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF TSRA..AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY GET GOING IN AND NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF FOR THE 21Z-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME.

BUT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS FOR
TSRA...AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH FOR THE KCNU FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR THE STRATUS DECK AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LAST...AS DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS.  SO
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR KRSL/KSLN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  57  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  55  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  54  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  54  75  62 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  10  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  53  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          71  49  74  62 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       72  53  75  63 /  10  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  55  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 151747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KMHK TO NEAR KHUT TO
JUST NORTH OF KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AS THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SO WILL SEE MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BECOME CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY GET GOING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER IN SE KS AFTER ABOUT 21Z.  SO WILL ADJUST POPS SOME AS MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WILL JUST SEE INCREASING CLOUDY SKIES. IF
A STORM CAN GET GOING...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS MAY LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.  BUT
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS...AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KEMP TO JUST NW OF
KICT TO KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AND MVFR CIGS AS THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A
FEW REPORTS OF IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR. EXPECT THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF TSRA..AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY GET GOING IN AND NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF FOR THE 21Z-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME.

BUT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS FOR
TSRA...AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH FOR THE KCNU FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR THE STRATUS DECK AND
MVFR CIGS WILL LAST...AS DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS.  SO
WILL CLEAR OUT THE MVFR CIGS FOR KRSL/KSLN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  57  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  55  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  54  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  54  75  62 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  10  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  53  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          71  49  74  62 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       72  53  75  63 /  10  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  55  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 151617
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KMHK TO NEAR KHUT TO
JUST NORTH OF KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AS THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SO WILL SEE MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BECOME CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY GET GOING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER IN SE KS AFTER ABOUT 21Z.  SO WILL ADJUST POPS SOME AS MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WILL JUST SEE INCREASING CLOUDY SKIES. IF
A STORM CAN GET GOING...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS MAY LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.  BUT
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS...AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF I-70 AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KRSL BY 13Z AND
KICT AROUND 19Z. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME MVFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KRSL AND KSLN THIS MORNING. SOME
ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY WITH A
STORM OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS. SOME OF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH SOME
MVFR LEVELS A POSSIBILITY.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  10   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          71  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       72  55  75  63 /  10  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 151617
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KMHK TO NEAR KHUT TO
JUST NORTH OF KPTT. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL STATUS AS THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SO WILL SEE MOST LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BECOME CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...850-700H FN CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO
INCREASE....ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER SE KS MAY HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.  LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY GET GOING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER IN SE KS AFTER ABOUT 21Z.  SO WILL ADJUST POPS SOME AS MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE WILL JUST SEE INCREASING CLOUDY SKIES. IF
A STORM CAN GET GOING...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS MAY LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.  BUT
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST OVER SE KS...AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK AFTER 23-00Z/TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF I-70 AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KRSL BY 13Z AND
KICT AROUND 19Z. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME MVFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KRSL AND KSLN THIS MORNING. SOME
ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY WITH A
STORM OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS. SOME OF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH SOME
MVFR LEVELS A POSSIBILITY.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  10   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          71  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       72  55  75  63 /  10  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 151144
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF I-70 AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KRSL BY 13Z AND
KICT AROUND 19Z. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME MVFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KRSL AND KSLN THIS MORNING. SOME
ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY WITH A
STORM OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS. SOME OF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH SOME
MVFR LEVELS A POSSIBILITY.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          70  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  75  63 /  20  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 151144
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF I-70 AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KRSL BY 13Z AND
KICT AROUND 19Z. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME MVFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KRSL AND KSLN THIS MORNING. SOME
ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY WITH A
STORM OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS. SOME OF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH SOME
MVFR LEVELS A POSSIBILITY.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          70  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  75  63 /  20  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 150825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  40  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          70  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  75  63 /  20  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 150825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  40  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          70  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  75  63 /  20  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 150448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  82  58  76 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  76  56  76 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  79  55  74 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  82  56  75 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  87  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  74 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  69  54  75 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  70  49  74 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  71  55  75 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  59  76 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         64  85  56  74 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            63  82  55  73 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  58  75 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 150448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  82  58  76 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  76  56  76 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  79  55  74 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  82  56  75 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  87  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  74 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  69  54  75 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  70  49  74 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  71  55  75 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  59  76 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         64  85  56  74 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            63  82  55  73 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  58  75 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 142322
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  84  58  77 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  78  57  77 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  80  56  77 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  83  56  76 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  75 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  70  52  76 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  71  51  75 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  75  54  77 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  84  59  75 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         65  83  57  73 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            64  82  56  72 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  84  58  74 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 142322
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  84  58  77 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  78  57  77 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  80  56  77 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  83  56  76 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  75 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  70  52  76 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  71  51  75 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  75  54  77 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  84  59  75 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         65  83  57  73 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            64  82  56  72 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  84  58  74 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 142029
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE AND NORTH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  84  58  77 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  78  57  77 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  80  56  77 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  83  56  76 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  75 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  70  52  76 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  71  51  75 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  75  54  77 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  84  59  75 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         65  83  57  73 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            64  82  56  72 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  84  58  74 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 142029
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE AND NORTH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  84  58  77 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  78  57  77 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  80  56  77 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  83  56  76 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  75 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  70  52  76 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  71  51  75 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  75  54  77 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  84  59  75 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         65  83  57  73 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            64  82  56  72 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  84  58  74 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 141711
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE AND NORTH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 141711
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE AND NORTH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 141035
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-CNU-RSL...SCT-BKN LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 3000-4000
FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEASTWARD. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF
SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 141035
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-CNU-RSL...SCT-BKN LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 3000-4000
FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEASTWARD. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF
SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 140806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY
STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 140806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY
STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 140438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY
STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 140438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY
STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 132324
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 132324
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 132033
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVETION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL STREAM EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 132033
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVETION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL STREAM EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 131718
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM WI DOWN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE. UNLIKE FRI...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN BUT
HIGHS TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN MT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A DECENT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SIGNAL OVER NORTHEAST KS SUN NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 310K
SURFACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MON WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES AROUND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR UPPER
RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PLACE THE PLAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPS. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY ISN`T A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS HAVING TO
BE THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING. BY WED...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL STREAM EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  52  80  64 /   0  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  50  79  61 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          62  50  77  60 /   0   0   0  20
ELDORADO        65  51  79  63 /   0  10   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  53  79  64 /   0  10   0  10
RUSSELL         64  46  78  58 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      64  48  79  59 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          65  46  78  60 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       63  48  78  61 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     65  51  78  63 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  50  77  62 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  49  76  61 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    65  50  77  62 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 131718
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM WI DOWN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE. UNLIKE FRI...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN BUT
HIGHS TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN MT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A DECENT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SIGNAL OVER NORTHEAST KS SUN NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 310K
SURFACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MON WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES AROUND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR UPPER
RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PLACE THE PLAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPS. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY ISN`T A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS HAVING TO
BE THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING. BY WED...TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL STREAM EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  52  80  64 /   0  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  50  79  61 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          62  50  77  60 /   0   0   0  20
ELDORADO        65  51  79  63 /   0  10   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  53  79  64 /   0  10   0  10
RUSSELL         64  46  78  58 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      64  48  79  59 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          65  46  78  60 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       63  48  78  61 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     65  51  78  63 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  50  77  62 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  49  76  61 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    65  50  77  62 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities