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000
FXUS63 KICT 291724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT
WOULD ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF
LATE...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES
SHADED JUST A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS WEAK WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-135. FOR NOW INCLUDED VCSH AT ICT-CNU
AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE...THREAT SHOULD EXIT ICT BY 00Z...AND CNU BY
06Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          86  66  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  66  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  67  91  70 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         87  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          89  65  91  71 /  40  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       88  64  91  70 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     86  69  91  70 /  60  40  20  20
CHANUTE         85  67  90  69 /  60  40  20  20
IOLA            85  67  89  69 /  60  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 291724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT
WOULD ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF
LATE...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES
SHADED JUST A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS WEAK WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-135. FOR NOW INCLUDED VCSH AT ICT-CNU
AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE...THREAT SHOULD EXIT ICT BY 00Z...AND CNU BY
06Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          86  66  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  66  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  67  91  70 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         87  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          89  65  91  71 /  40  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       88  64  91  70 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     86  69  91  70 /  60  40  20  20
CHANUTE         85  67  90  69 /  60  40  20  20
IOLA            85  67  89  69 /  60  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES VERY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT WOULD
ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ALONG/NORTH
OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF LATE...WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES SHADED JUST A
BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. TRANSIENT
MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE VFR
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. WSW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          87  66  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        90  66  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  67  91  70 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         88  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          91  65  91  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       89  64  91  70 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  69  91  70 /  60  50  20  20
CHANUTE         83  67  90  69 /  50  50  20  20
IOLA            82  67  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  90  70 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 291132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES VERY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT WOULD
ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ALONG/NORTH
OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF LATE...WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES SHADED JUST A
BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. TRANSIENT
MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE VFR
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. WSW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          87  66  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        90  66  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  67  91  70 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         88  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          91  65  91  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       89  64  91  70 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  69  91  70 /  60  50  20  20
CHANUTE         83  67  90  69 /  50  50  20  20
IOLA            82  67  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  90  70 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 290848
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES VERY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT WOULD
ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ALONG/NORTH
OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF LATE...WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES SHADED JUST A
BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 06Z
FORECAST. THERE IS ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST KRSL/KHUT AND
MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECT THESE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALREADY IMPACTED KICT AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO IMPACT
KCNU. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE RELATIVELY SHORT TERM
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE STORMS. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SPIN WEST OF US BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  30  10  10  20
NEWTON          87  66  90  70 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        90  66  90  69 /  50  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  67  91  70 /  50  30  10  10
RUSSELL         88  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          91  65  91  71 /  30  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       89  64  91  70 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  69  91  70 /  60  50  20  20
CHANUTE         83  67  90  69 /  60  50  20  20
IOLA            82  67  89  69 /  60  50  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  90  70 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290447
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TX...NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN OK AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DENSE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...THINKING MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SHIFTING EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD...FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS EARLY TO
MID WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 06Z
FORECAST. THERE IS ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST KRSL/KHUT AND
MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECT THESE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALREADY IMPACTED KICT AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO IMPACT
KCNU. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE RELATIVELY SHORT TERM
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE STORMS. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SPIN WEST OF US BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  87  66  91 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      67  88  63  92 /  60  40  20   0
NEWTON          68  86  64  91 /  60  50  30  10
ELDORADO        69  85  66  91 /  60  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  10
RUSSELL         65  87  62  90 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  87  63  91 /  60  30  10   0
SALINA          68  87  65  91 /  60  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       67  88  64  91 /  60  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  86  68  91 /  60  60  50  20
CHANUTE         70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
IOLA            69  84  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 282341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TX...NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN OK AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DENSE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...THINKING MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SHIFTING EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD...FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS EARLY TO
MID WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH OF KRSL TO
THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS STATE LINE. THESE STORMS HAVE THE ABILITY TO
HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY DECREASE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. THIS ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KRSL AND WILL IMPACT KSLN/KHUT AND KICT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE
EASTWARD. ALONG THE FLINT HILLS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT...AND MAY IMPACT KCNU...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNU WILL BE MUCH LATER...TOWARD THE MORNING
HOURS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  87  66  91 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      67  88  63  92 /  60  40  20   0
NEWTON          68  86  64  91 /  60  50  30  10
ELDORADO        69  85  66  91 /  60  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  10
RUSSELL         65  87  62  90 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  87  63  91 /  60  30  10   0
SALINA          68  87  65  91 /  60  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       67  88  64  91 /  60  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  86  68  91 /  60  60  50  20
CHANUTE         70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
IOLA            69  84  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 282341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TX...NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN OK AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DENSE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...THINKING MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SHIFTING EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD...FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS EARLY TO
MID WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH OF KRSL TO
THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS STATE LINE. THESE STORMS HAVE THE ABILITY TO
HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY DECREASE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. THIS ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KRSL AND WILL IMPACT KSLN/KHUT AND KICT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE
EASTWARD. ALONG THE FLINT HILLS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT...AND MAY IMPACT KCNU...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNU WILL BE MUCH LATER...TOWARD THE MORNING
HOURS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  87  66  91 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      67  88  63  92 /  60  40  20   0
NEWTON          68  86  64  91 /  60  50  30  10
ELDORADO        69  85  66  91 /  60  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  10
RUSSELL         65  87  62  90 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  87  63  91 /  60  30  10   0
SALINA          68  87  65  91 /  60  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       67  88  64  91 /  60  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  86  68  91 /  60  60  50  20
CHANUTE         70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
IOLA            69  84  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 282013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TX...NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN OK AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DENSE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...THINKING MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SHIFTING EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD...FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS EARLY TO
MID WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NARROW CORRIDOR OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
IMPACT ICT AND POSSIBLY HUT INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED BY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CNU TERMINAL
MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  87  66  91 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      67  88  63  92 /  60  40  20   0
NEWTON          68  86  64  91 /  60  50  30  10
ELDORADO        69  85  66  91 /  60  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  10
RUSSELL         65  87  62  90 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  87  63  91 /  60  30  10   0
SALINA          68  87  65  91 /  60  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       67  88  64  91 /  60  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  86  68  91 /  60  60  50  20
CHANUTE         70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
IOLA            69  84  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 282013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TX...NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN OK AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...THINKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY FORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DENSE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...THINKING MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE SUN HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK/MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SHIFTING EAST
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY LATER THIS EVENING.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KS
FOR FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD...FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A GOOD BET OVER PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS EARLY TO
MID WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NARROW CORRIDOR OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
IMPACT ICT AND POSSIBLY HUT INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED BY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CNU TERMINAL
MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  87  66  91 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      67  88  63  92 /  60  40  20   0
NEWTON          68  86  64  91 /  60  50  30  10
ELDORADO        69  85  66  91 /  60  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  87  67  91 /  60  50  40  10
RUSSELL         65  87  62  90 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  87  63  91 /  60  30  10   0
SALINA          68  87  65  91 /  60  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       67  88  64  91 /  60  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  86  68  91 /  60  60  50  20
CHANUTE         70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
IOLA            69  84  67  90 /  60  60  50  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  85  67  90 /  60  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281642
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NARROW CORRIDOR OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
IMPACT ICT AND POSSIBLY HUT INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED BY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CNU TERMINAL
MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  50  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      86  67  86  63 /  60  60  40  30
NEWTON          87  68  85  64 /  50  60  50  30
ELDORADO        92  69  85  66 /  40  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         86  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      87  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          87  68  85  65 /  60  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  70  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 281642
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

NARROW CORRIDOR OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
IMPACT ICT AND POSSIBLY HUT INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED BY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AGAIN...GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CNU TERMINAL
MAY NOT SEE ANY STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  50  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      86  67  86  63 /  60  60  40  30
NEWTON          87  68  85  64 /  50  60  50  30
ELDORADO        92  69  85  66 /  40  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         86  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      87  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          87  68  85  65 /  60  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  70  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 281117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  40  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      85  67  86  63 /  50  60  40  30
NEWTON          88  68  85  64 /  40  60  50  30
ELDORADO        91  69  85  66 /  30  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         84  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      84  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          84  68  85  65 /  50  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  50  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 281117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  40  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      85  67  86  63 /  50  60  40  30
NEWTON          88  68  85  64 /  40  60  50  30
ELDORADO        91  69  85  66 /  30  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         84  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      84  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          84  68  85  65 /  50  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  50  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 280824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA...NORTH
OF KRSL/KSLN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE PUT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LATER THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINING VFR BUT IF STORMS CENTER
THEMSELVES OVER A TAF SITE...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE
DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  40  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      85  67  86  63 /  50  60  40  30
NEWTON          88  68  85  64 /  40  60  50  30
ELDORADO        91  69  85  66 /  30  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         84  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      84  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          84  68  85  65 /  50  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  50  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 280824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE SOUTHWEST US INTO KS. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BEFORE NOON. SO EXPECTING A RAINY
AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS BOTH THE
NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A
LOW END SEVERE CHANCE AS WELL...BUT ONLY MODERATE TO LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT
PULLS EAST INTO THE PLAINS AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME
WHEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP A NICE SOAKING RAIN.

MOISTURE PLUME AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 150-180 PERCENT SUGGEST
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO PICK UP SOME HEALTHY
QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FRIDAY: WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
COULD STILL SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO
SEE SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID
PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER NICE DAY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESNT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH FOR
SAT...ONLY INTO NRN OK. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE TOP OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A RATHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN EVENING.
LATEST GFS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE
SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`...AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING...AS BULK
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.
STAY TUNED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN KS OR NRN OK FOR MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS FOR MON INTO TUE....AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA...NORTH
OF KRSL/KSLN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE PUT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LATER THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINING VFR BUT IF STORMS CENTER
THEMSELVES OVER A TAF SITE...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE
DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  86  66 /  40  60  40  30
HUTCHINSON      85  67  86  63 /  50  60  40  30
NEWTON          88  68  85  64 /  40  60  50  30
ELDORADO        91  69  85  66 /  30  60  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  87  67 /  30  60  40  40
RUSSELL         84  65  85  62 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      84  65  86  63 /  50  60  30  20
SALINA          84  68  85  65 /  50  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       85  67  85  64 /  50  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  71  87  68 /  10  40  60  50
CHANUTE         93  70  86  67 /  10  40  60  60
IOLA            92  69  85  67 /  10  40  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  87  67 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 280453
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA...NORTH
OF KRSL/KSLN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE PUT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LATER THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINING VFR BUT IF STORMS CENTER
THEMSELVES OVER A TAF SITE...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE
DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  30  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  20  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  40  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  20  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  20  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 280453
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA...NORTH
OF KRSL/KSLN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE PUT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LATER THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. STILL MAINTAINING VFR BUT IF STORMS CENTER
THEMSELVES OVER A TAF SITE...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE
DEGRADED TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  30  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  20  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  40  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  20  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  20  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WAVE
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UNLESS
A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE...THEN BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  30  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  20  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  40  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  10  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WAVE
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UNLESS
A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE...THEN BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  30  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  20  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  40  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  10  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 272024
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER FOR
NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AND AMEND AS NEEDED
AS CONVECTION/LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE IMMINENT. A
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  40  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  30  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  50  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  10  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 272024
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CONFLUENCE
ZONE WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL
KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
ERUPTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COULD CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA (BARTON-RUSSELL-
LINCOLN COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN/NORTHWEST KS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPES
WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AS CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST...AMIDST RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ALSO AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. POOR
MID-LEVEL RATES SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER WINDS AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ONCE
AGAIN...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...FOR THIS WHOLE
EVENT THINKING WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00" IS A GOOD
BET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...GFS AND TO SOME DEGREES THE ECMWF
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING 700 WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.

NEXT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...AS A STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS MON-
TUE...WHICH COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER FOR
NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AND AMEND AS NEEDED
AS CONVECTION/LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE IMMINENT. A
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  69  86 /  30  40  60  50
HUTCHINSON      73  86  67  86 /  40  50  60  50
NEWTON          72  88  68  85 /  40  40  60  50
ELDORADO        73  91  69  85 /  30  30  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  92  70  87 /  20  30  60  50
RUSSELL         69  86  65  85 /  50  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      70  86  65  86 /  50  50  60  40
SALINA          73  87  68  85 /  50  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       72  86  67  85 /  40  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  71  87 /  10  10  40  60
CHANUTE         72  94  70  86 /  20  10  40  60
IOLA            72  94  69  85 /  20  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  70  87 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271731
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AND AMEND AS
NEEDED AS CONVECTION/LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
IMMINENT. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  40  40  50
HUTCHINSON      94  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  40  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  20  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  30  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      91  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  50  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     96  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  20  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  20  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 271731
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER
FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AND AMEND AS
NEEDED AS CONVECTION/LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
IMMINENT. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  40  40  50
HUTCHINSON      94  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  40  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  20  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  30  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      91  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  50  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     96  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  20  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  20  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 271112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  30  40  50
HUTCHINSON      95  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  30  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  10  20  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  50  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      92  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  40  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     97  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  10  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 271112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  30  40  50
HUTCHINSON      95  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  30  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  10  20  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  50  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      92  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  40  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     97  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  10  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 270805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRSL AFTER 08Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR
WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WHILE
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  30  40  50
HUTCHINSON      95  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  30  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  10  20  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  50  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      92  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  40  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     97  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  10  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 270805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRSL AFTER 08Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR
WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WHILE
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  30  40  50
HUTCHINSON      95  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  30  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  10  20  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  50  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      92  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  40  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     97  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  10  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 270444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRSL AFTER 08Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR
WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WHILE
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 270444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRSL AFTER 08Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR
WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WHILE
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 270006
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
706 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SCATTERED STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP OR DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MAINTAINED VCTS AT KRSL AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 270006
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
706 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SCATTERED STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP OR DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MAINTAINED VCTS AT KRSL AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 262014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND WEST OF I-135. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THE
BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 262014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND WEST OF I-135. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THE
BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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