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000
FXUS63 KICT 281129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TODAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM...ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ABUNDANT SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

THINGS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED BY A
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. WITH
THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE
MOIST AIRMASS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP...FEEL THIS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IF GUIDANCE DOES EVOLVE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF IT`S LIQUID OR FROZEN. WILL
FINE TUNE IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

DECEMBER WILL START OFF COOL WITH MONDAY BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR THE LOW 50 DEGREE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE 24HR
PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CNU TAF SITE BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TODAY BUT
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      62  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          59  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         58  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  46  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TODAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM...ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ABUNDANT SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

THINGS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED BY A
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. WITH
THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE
MOIST AIRMASS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP...FEEL THIS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IF GUIDANCE DOES EVOLVE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF IT`S LIQUID OR FROZEN. WILL
FINE TUNE IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

DECEMBER WILL START OFF COOL WITH MONDAY BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR THE LOW 50 DEGREE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE 24HR
PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CNU TAF SITE BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TODAY BUT
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      62  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          59  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         58  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  46  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280855
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TODAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM...ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ABUNDANT SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

THINGS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED BY A
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. WITH
THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE
MOIST AIRMASS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP...FEEL THIS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IF GUIDANCE DOES EVOLVE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF IT`S LIQUID OR FROZEN. WILL
FINE TUNE IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

DECEMBER WILL START OFF COOL WITH MONDAY BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR THE LOW 50 DEGREE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 23-28 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      62  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          59  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         58  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  46  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280855
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TODAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM...ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ABUNDANT SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

THINGS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED BY A
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. WITH
THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE
MOIST AIRMASS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP...FEEL THIS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IF GUIDANCE DOES EVOLVE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF IT`S LIQUID OR FROZEN. WILL
FINE TUNE IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

DECEMBER WILL START OFF COOL WITH MONDAY BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR THE LOW 50 DEGREE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 23-28 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      62  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          59  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         58  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  46  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TNGT: QUIET WEATHER FOR ANY EVENING THANKSGIVING ACTIVITIES...THOUGH
A LITTLE CHILLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
WELL BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

FRI-SAT: EARLY PART OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT. DECENT
WARMUP WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BOTH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. H8 THERMAL RIDGE OF 12-16 DEG C
ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY...WHICH DISPLACES
ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CREEPING UP INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE.  SURFACE TO H8 WIND FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFINING MIXING ONLY TO ABT 900MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ABOUT CATEGORY WARMER.

SUN: THE NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON
SUNDAY...AS BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN...CARVING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE IN TURN WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT
THROUGH BULK OF CWA STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS INSOLATION WILL BE BATTLING WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS
EXPECT ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH WARMEST READINGS IN
THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN
CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE
LOW 60S.

GULF REMAINS CUTOFF...AND RH MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SCANT FOR BULK
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ENOUGH COLD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND SURFACE LOW TO SATURATE H9 TO H7 LEVELS AND
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH.

SF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MON:  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. COMBINATION OF A
NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AGAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MATERIALIZES.

TUE-THU: UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMEBER. OVERALL ENSEMBLES LOOK RATHER
MIXED...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GEFS MEMBERS WITH REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM... AS WELL AS THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.
GEFS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY WITH NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX...WHICH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU.  AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...
BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL
BREAK DOWN SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 23-28 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          31  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        33  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  65  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  61  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            29  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TNGT: QUIET WEATHER FOR ANY EVENING THANKSGIVING ACTIVITIES...THOUGH
A LITTLE CHILLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
WELL BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

FRI-SAT: EARLY PART OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT. DECENT
WARMUP WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BOTH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. H8 THERMAL RIDGE OF 12-16 DEG C
ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY...WHICH DISPLACES
ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CREEPING UP INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE.  SURFACE TO H8 WIND FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFINING MIXING ONLY TO ABT 900MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ABOUT CATEGORY WARMER.

SUN: THE NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON
SUNDAY...AS BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN...CARVING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE IN TURN WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT
THROUGH BULK OF CWA STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS INSOLATION WILL BE BATTLING WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS
EXPECT ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH WARMEST READINGS IN
THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN
CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE
LOW 60S.

GULF REMAINS CUTOFF...AND RH MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SCANT FOR BULK
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ENOUGH COLD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND SURFACE LOW TO SATURATE H9 TO H7 LEVELS AND
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH.

SF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MON:  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. COMBINATION OF A
NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AGAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MATERIALIZES.

TUE-THU: UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMEBER. OVERALL ENSEMBLES LOOK RATHER
MIXED...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GEFS MEMBERS WITH REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM... AS WELL AS THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.
GEFS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY WITH NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX...WHICH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU.  AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...
BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL
BREAK DOWN SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 23-28 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          31  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        33  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  65  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  61  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            29  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TNGT: QUIET WEATHER FOR ANY EVENING THANKSGIVING ACTIVITIES...THOUGH
A LITTLE CHILLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
WELL BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

FRI-SAT: EARLY PART OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT. DECENT
WARMUP WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BOTH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. H8 THERMAL RIDGE OF 12-16 DEG C
ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY...WHICH DISPLACES
ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CREEPING UP INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE.  SURFACE TO H8 WIND FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFINING MIXING ONLY TO ABT 900MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ABOUT CATEGORY WARMER.

SUN: THE NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON
SUNDAY...AS BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN...CARVING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE IN TURN WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT
THROUGH BULK OF CWA STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS INSOLATION WILL BE BATTLING WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS
EXPECT ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH WARMEST READINGS IN
THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN
CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE
LOW 60S.

GULF REMAINS CUTOFF...AND RH MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SCANT FOR BULK
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ENOUGH COLD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND SURFACE LOW TO SATURATE H9 TO H7 LEVELS AND
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH.

SF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MON:  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. COMBINATION OF A
NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AGAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MATERIALIZES.

TUE-THU: UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMEBER. OVERALL ENSEMBLES LOOK RATHER
MIXED...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GEFS MEMBERS WITH REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM... AS WELL AS THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.
GEFS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY WITH NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX...WHICH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU.  AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...
BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL
BREAK DOWN SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER WYOMING...WILL ALLOW A BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT...BEFORE
THINNING OUT ON FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF
23-28 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          32  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        34  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31  65  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          31  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       31  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  61  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            30  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  58  44  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TNGT: QUIET WEATHER FOR ANY EVENING THANKSGIVING ACTIVITIES...THOUGH
A LITTLE CHILLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
WELL BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

FRI-SAT: EARLY PART OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT. DECENT
WARMUP WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BOTH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. H8 THERMAL RIDGE OF 12-16 DEG C
ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY...WHICH DISPLACES
ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CREEPING UP INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE.  SURFACE TO H8 WIND FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFINING MIXING ONLY TO ABT 900MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ABOUT CATEGORY WARMER.

SUN: THE NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON
SUNDAY...AS BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN...CARVING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE IN TURN WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT
THROUGH BULK OF CWA STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS INSOLATION WILL BE BATTLING WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS
EXPECT ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH WARMEST READINGS IN
THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN
CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE
LOW 60S.

GULF REMAINS CUTOFF...AND RH MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SCANT FOR BULK
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ENOUGH COLD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND SURFACE LOW TO SATURATE H9 TO H7 LEVELS AND
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH.

SF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MON:  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. COMBINATION OF A
NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AGAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MATERIALIZES.

TUE-THU: UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMEBER. OVERALL ENSEMBLES LOOK RATHER
MIXED...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GEFS MEMBERS WITH REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM... AS WELL AS THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.
GEFS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY WITH NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX...WHICH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU.  AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...
BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL
BREAK DOWN SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER WYOMING...WILL ALLOW A BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT...BEFORE
THINNING OUT ON FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF
23-28 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          32  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        34  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31  65  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          31  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       31  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  61  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            30  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  58  44  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272108
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TNGT: QUIET WEATHER FOR ANY EVENING THANKSGIVING ACTIVITIES...THOUGH
A LITTLE CHILLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
WELL BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

FRI-SAT: EARLY PART OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT. DECENT
WARMUP WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BOTH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. H8 THERMAL RIDGE OF 12-16 DEG C
ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY...WHICH DISPLACES
ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CREEPING UP INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE.  SURFACE TO H8 WIND FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFINING MIXING ONLY TO ABT 900MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ABOUT CATEGORY WARMER.


SUN: THE NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN...CARVING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE IN TURN WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH BULK OF CWA
STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THUS INSOLATION WILL BE
BATTLING WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS EXPECT ATYPICAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S.

GULF REMAINS CUTOFF...AND RH MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SCANT FOR BULK
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ENOUGH COLD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND SURFACE LOW TO SATURATE H9 TO H7 LEVELS AND
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH.

SF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MON:  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. COMBINATION OF A
NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AGAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MATERIALIZES.

TUE-THU: UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMEBER. OVERALL ENSEMBLES LOOK RATHER
MIXED...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GEFS MEMBERS WITH REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM... AS WELL AS THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.
GEFS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY WITH NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX...WHICH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU.  AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...
BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL
BREAK DOWN SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO
A FEW ALTOCU ~15,000FT & SOME CI/CS. A WEAK N-S ORIENTED SFC TROF
SITUATED OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL ENABLE SLY WINDS ~10KTS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          32  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        34  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31  65  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          31  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       31  62  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  61  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            30  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  58  44  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. A SUBTLE TREND UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THIS COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO
A FEW ALTOCU ~15,000FT & SOME CI/CS. A WEAK N-S ORIENTED SFC TROF
SITUATED OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL ENABLE SLY WINDS ~10KTS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  32  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  31  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  33  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         51  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  32  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         46  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  29  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  30  61  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. A SUBTLE TREND UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THIS COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO
A FEW ALTOCU ~15,000FT & SOME CI/CS. A WEAK N-S ORIENTED SFC TROF
SITUATED OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL ENABLE SLY WINDS ~10KTS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  32  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  31  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  33  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         51  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  32  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         46  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  29  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  30  61  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271211
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. A SUBTLE TREND UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THIS COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH EXPECTED SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  32  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  31  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  33  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         51  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  32  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         46  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  29  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  30  61  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271211
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. A SUBTLE TREND UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THIS COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH EXPECTED SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  32  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  31  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  33  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         51  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  32  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         46  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  29  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  30  61  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 270841
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
241 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. A SUBTLE TREND UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THIS COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS SHIELD OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY JUST EAST OF THE CNU
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  32  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  31  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  33  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         51  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  32  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         46  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  29  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  30  61  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270501
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS SHIELD OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY JUST EAST OF THE CNU
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270501
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS SHIELD OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY JUST EAST OF THE CNU
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 262308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...LEADING TO DIMINISHING
WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 262308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...LEADING TO DIMINISHING
WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262109
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SOLE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT NW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
25 KTS WILL WHISTLE ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE AND DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY FROM 26/23Z TO 27/02Z DURING WHICH PERIOD SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 7 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262109
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TNGT-THU: CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS MO
AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF BLUSTERY COLD ADVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.   THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDENCE
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO THU...AS ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY.

EXPECT A CHILLY START FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO MO.  THU WILL THE BE TRANSITION
DAY...AS NW FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MOVE ZONAL BY LATE THU INTO
FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES.  THIS GRADUAL WARMUP WILL START OVER WRN KS ON THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS REACHING THE LOW 50S.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP WILL REALLY GETS GOING FOR FRI INTO SAT...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEST WINDS ALOFT LEAD TO NICE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THIS WARM ADVECTION AND ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH 850H TEMPS
INTO 12-16 DEG C RANGE WITH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SUN: THE TRICKY DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS SUN....WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SE KS
POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 60S BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IT CERTAINLY WILL LEAD TO A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON
SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT.

MON: COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS COLD AIRMASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUE-WED: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT. WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO STREAM BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE-WED.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SW FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN ERN SECTIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SOLE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT NW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
25 KTS WILL WHISTLE ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE AND DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY FROM 26/23Z TO 27/02Z DURING WHICH PERIOD SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 7 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  48  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  49  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  46  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  49  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  48  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      22  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  48  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  48  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  46  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  45  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  47  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS HAVE PROMPTED AN UPDATE TO UP THE WIND ANTE ACROSS
THESE AREAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SOLE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT NW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
25 KTS WILL WHISTLE ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE AND DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY FROM 26/23Z TO 27/02Z DURING WHICH PERIOD SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 7 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         45  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      46  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            47  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE OZARK REGION WILL
CONTINUE THE SPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT CEILING LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         45  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      46  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE OZARK REGION WILL
CONTINUE THE SPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT CEILING LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         45  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      46  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
DROP BELOW VFR IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE EVAPORATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 15Z INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
DROP BELOW VFR IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE EVAPORATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 15Z INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260504
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
DROP BELOW VFR IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE EVAPORATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 15Z INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260504
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
DROP BELOW VFR IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE EVAPORATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 15Z INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
538 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL IN CENTRAL
KS. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO DROP BELOW VFR HOWEVER. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 252338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
538 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL IN CENTRAL
KS. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO DROP BELOW VFR HOWEVER. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252102
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING &
LIKELY BEYOND WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO ALTOCU THAT`LL GRADUALLY
LOWER FROM ~15,000 TO 10,000FT. A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT & SE KS 12-14Z WED BUT NO MORE
THAN A S/SW-NW WIND SHIFT WOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 252102
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING &
LIKELY BEYOND WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO ALTOCU THAT`LL GRADUALLY
LOWER FROM ~15,000 TO 10,000FT. A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT & SE KS 12-14Z WED BUT NO MORE
THAN A S/SW-NW WIND SHIFT WOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251812
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1212 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN
INTO SW TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL KS AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z WED THIS IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OZARK REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WED AND THU BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE POLAR AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FOR BOTH WED AND THU. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE ARE
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL ISSUES FOR BOTH WED AND
THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TRACKING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THIS WILL ALLOW POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT...POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO OUR AREA BY SUN. IT STILL
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANY IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING &
LIKELY BEYOND WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO ALTOCU THAT`LL GRADUALLY
LOWER FROM ~15,000 TO 10,000FT. A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT & SE KS 12-14Z WED BUT NO MORE
THAN A S/SW-NW WIND SHIFT WOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  33  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      50  33  47  23 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          48  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        51  34  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  33  49  26 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         52  30  44  20 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  31  46  21 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          51  33  45  22 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       50  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  34  50  26 /   0  10  10   0
CHANUTE         47  32  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
IOLA            46  32  46  24 /   0  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  33  49  24 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251812
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1212 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN
INTO SW TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL KS AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z WED THIS IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OZARK REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WED AND THU BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE POLAR AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FOR BOTH WED AND THU. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE ARE
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL ISSUES FOR BOTH WED AND
THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TRACKING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THIS WILL ALLOW POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT...POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO OUR AREA BY SUN. IT STILL
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANY IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING &
LIKELY BEYOND WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO ALTOCU THAT`LL GRADUALLY
LOWER FROM ~15,000 TO 10,000FT. A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT & SE KS 12-14Z WED BUT NO MORE
THAN A S/SW-NW WIND SHIFT WOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  33  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      50  33  47  23 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          48  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        51  34  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  33  49  26 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         52  30  44  20 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  31  46  21 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          51  33  45  22 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       50  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  34  50  26 /   0  10  10   0
CHANUTE         47  32  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
IOLA            46  32  46  24 /   0  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  33  49  24 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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