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000
FXUS63 KICT 301159
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
659 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Main challenge is convective chances/trends through Tuesday night
before we begin to dry out by mid-week and beyond. The next couple
of days will be characterized by moderate to strong diurnal
instability and relatively modest deep layer shear. For today,
while isolated elevated convection is possible this morning
across the area, daytime heating is expected to again promote
scattered surface based storms, mainly along/east of K-14, where
inhibition will be weakest in the presence of 2200-3500 j/kg
MLCAPE/SBCAPE respectively. Weak to modest deep layer shear and
likewise westerly flow aloft should result in slow moving storms
with potential for heavy rainfall as well as marginally severe
hail and a few strong downbursts. The focus for better coverage of
convective rainfall will be with the approaching surface cold
front late tonight through Tuesday night. One or more organized
storm clusters should evolve across the high Plains this evening
and move east-southeast into portions of central Kansas late
tonight. Elevated convection will likely persist further southeast
across the forecast area during Tuesday morning. The combination
of the effective surface cold front and/or mesoscale outflow
boundaries moving into the area will provide the focus for
additional convection, be it surface based or quasi-elevated
storms. Despite rather weak to modest shear/flow aloft and
somewhat more moderate CAPE values, a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible with a continued risk for heavy
rainfall. The upper trof will move from the northern Plains across
the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with drier and
cooler air gradually advecting south across the area. This
supports the going trend of decreasing/ending POPS from north to
south across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The end of the week looks dry and seasonably warm. An upper trof
will be situated across the southern Plains with rather weak
northerly flow aloft across Kansas. There is some potential for a
secondary surface cold front to drop south into the area by early
next weekend as an upper trof in the northern stream drops across
the Great Lakes. While this could bring a brief transient chance
for precip, the signal to noise ratio in the timing of the front
and quality of moisture along it suggest keeping the forecast dry
for now.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A period of subsidence in the wake of a shortwave trough may
inhibit shower and/or storm development across the area this
afternoon but confidence remains low. Better chances for a cluster
of storms to impact the area may arrive late tonight across
Central KS ahead of an approaching cold front. Light and variable
winds this morning will become south and increase to around 15-20
mph before veering to the ssw overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  63  80  60 /  30  40  70  70
Hutchinson      85  62  79  58 /  30  50  60  60
Newton          84  62  79  59 /  30  50  70  60
ElDorado        84  63  79  60 /  30  40  70  70
Winfield-KWLD   85  64  80  61 /  30  30  60  70
Russell         85  60  77  54 /  30  60  60  40
Great Bend      85  61  78  55 /  30  60  60  40
Salina          86  62  79  57 /  30  60  60  60
McPherson       84  62  78  57 /  30  60  60  60
Coffeyville     84  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  70
Chanute         84  62  81  62 /  30  30  60  70
Iola            84  62  80  62 /  30  30  60  70
Parsons-KPPF    84  62  80  62 /  30  30  60  70

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM





000
FXUS63 KICT 300825
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Main challenge is convective chances/trends through Tuesday night
before we begin to dry out by mid-week and beyond. The next couple
of days will be characterized by moderate to strong diurnal
instability and relatively modest deep layer shear. For today,
while isolated elevated convection is possible this morning
across the area, daytime heating is expected to again promote
scattered surface based storms, mainly along/east of K-14, where
inhibition will be weakest in the presence of 2200-3500 j/kg
MLCAPE/SBCAPE respectively. Weak to modest deep layer shear and
likewise westerly flow aloft should result in slow moving storms
with potential for heavy rainfall as well as marginally severe
hail and a few strong downbursts. The focus for better coverage of
convective rainfall will be with the approaching surface cold
front late tonight through Tuesday night. One or more organized
storm clusters should evolve across the high Plains this evening
and move east-southeast into portions of central Kansas late
tonight. Elevated convection will likely persist further southeast
across the forecast area during Tuesday morning. The combination
of the effective surface cold front and/or mesoscale outflow
boundaries moving into the area will provide the focus for
additional convection, be it surface based or quasi-elevated
storms. Despite rather weak to modest shear/flow aloft and
somewhat more moderate CAPE values, a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible with a continued risk for heavy
rainfall. The upper trof will move from the northern Plains across
the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with drier and
cooler air gradually advecting south across the area. This
supports the going trend of decreasing/ending POPS from north to
south across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The end of the week looks dry and seasonably warm. An upper trof
will be situated across the southern Plains with rather weak
northerly flow aloft across Kansas. There is some potential for a
secondary surface cold front to drop south into the area by early
next weekend as an upper trof in the northern stream drops across
the Great Lakes. While this could bring a brief transient chance
for precip, the signal to noise ratio in the timing of the front
and quality of moisture along it suggest keeping the forecast dry
for now.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A few showers/storms will be possible across mainly central/south
central Kansas overnight. Otherwise southeast Kansas could see
some shallow patchy fog develop overnight and linger a bit past
sunrise. Additional showers/storms are expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours on Monday across much of the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  63  80  60 /  30  40  70  70
Hutchinson      85  62  79  58 /  30  50  60  60
Newton          84  62  79  59 /  30  50  70  60
ElDorado        84  63  79  60 /  30  40  70  70
Winfield-KWLD   85  64  80  61 /  30  30  60  70
Russell         85  60  77  54 /  30  60  60  40
Great Bend      85  61  78  55 /  30  60  60  40
Salina          86  62  79  57 /  30  60  60  60
McPherson       84  62  78  57 /  30  60  60  60
Coffeyville     84  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  70
Chanute         84  62  81  62 /  30  30  60  70
Iola            84  62  80  62 /  30  30  60  70
Parsons-KPPF    84  62  80  62 /  30  30  60  70

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 290755
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Elevated showers and storms may develop this morning as a subtle
area of H85 moisture transport noses into Southern Kansas ahead
of a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the Southern Rockies.
Confidence in timing/coverage remains fairly low and maintained
low pops across much of the area through the day. Any activity
developing over Central KS this afternoon/evening may spread
eastward across South Central Kansas tonight although confidence
in coverage remains fairly low. Another mild day is anticipated
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday-Tuesday...We may see a break in the action on Monday although
the airmass is progged to become quite unstable during the afternoon
hours. The primary focus for storm development will be the dryline
which is progged to remain well west of the area across the High
Plains of Western Kansas. Due to weak cinh...we may still see a
diurnally driven storm or two, so pops were trended down across the
area. Better chances for deep moist convection may arrive across
Central KS Monday night as the LLJ/H85 moisture transport ramps up
once again. By late Tuesday...a shortwave trough moving over the
Northern Plains will drive a cold front south bringing increasing
chances for deep moist convection through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A dry post-frontal regime will develop across the area on
Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the period. Highs
will remain below normal through the remainder of the work week
with readings in the 70s. Another frontal passage is expected on
the weekend which may bring a brief round of showers and storms
but confidence in timing remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across Central/South
Central Kansas for the next 24hrs. Meanwhile some mid-level clouds
will spread into South Central Kansas Sunday morning and early
afternoon. Also could see a few showers/storms over South Central
Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  61  82  63 /  30  30  30  30
Hutchinson      80  60  81  62 /  30  30  30  30
Newton          81  61  81  62 /  30  30  30  30
ElDorado        82  63  81  63 /  30  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   82  63  81  64 /  40  30  30  30
Russell         80  57  81  60 /  30  30  30  50
Great Bend      82  58  81  61 /  30  30  30  40
Salina          82  59  83  62 /  30  30  30  40
McPherson       81  59  81  62 /  30  30  30  40
Coffeyville     84  64  82  64 /  30  30  30  30
Chanute         83  64  82  63 /  30  30  30  30
Iola            83  64  82  63 /  30  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    84  64  82  63 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 290427
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper-level energy lifting into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. With a remnant
pocket of cooler air aloft lingering across portions of the region,
diurnally driven cumulus developed this afternoon with ample
insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The main forecast concerns are thunderstorm chances through the
first part of the work week and the arrival of a cold front on
Tuesday. Confidence is not particularly high in regards to how warm
temperatures will get over the next few days given the potential
for cloudy conditions and precipitation chances across much of
the area.

With the remnants of the diffuse surface boundary, that pushed
across central and southeast Kansas earlier this morning, draped
across central Oklahoma up into southwest Missouri thunderstorm
chances have been removed this evening across far southeast
Kansas. The diurnal cumulus that has developed this afternoon will
diminish once we lose daytime heating with a pleasant evening in
store. Sunday morning expect cloud cover to be on the increase as
low level moisture begins to return northward. Towards daybreak
models are consistent with H85 moisture transport edging northward
across south central and central Kansas. Lapse rates do not look
terribly impressive; however, with a pocket of steep lapse rates
in the mid levels will continue to include mentions of
thunderstorms beginning in the morning hours. Confidence is
highest towards the afternoon and evening hours for thunderstorm
chances as a subtle shortwave is progged to eject out of the
southern Rockies.

For Monday, there are some discrepancies amongst the models in
regards to the axis of moisture transport. Therefore, confidence
is not particularly high in the overall converge of thunderstorm
activity. Given this uncertainty, have opted to maintain at least
chance PoPs for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity that can
develop along and west of I-135 may see the potential to become
strong to severe. With a weakly capped and modestly unstable
atmosphere overhead, even if storms cannot become surface based a
few elevated storms will have enough shear and instability to work
with. East of the I-135 corridor the instability drops off fairly
dramatically; therefore, the potential for strong to severe storms
is far less pronounced in those areas. By Tuesday morning as the
aforementioned cold front approaches central Kansas expect
thunderstorms become more widespread across central Kansas. As the
frontal boundary slowly drops southeast during the day on Tuesday
thunderstorm activity will increase across the area. The speed of
the cold front is not terribly impressive with the upper-level
energy lifting across the northern Plains. Therefore, with saturated
soils already in place additional rainfall may exacerbate any
lingering and/or recent flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

By Wednesday morning/afternoon the frontal boundary will push across
south central and southeast Kansas; however, there will still be
the potential to see lingering thunderstorm activity during the
morning and afternoon hours. By Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as a stable post frontal airmass settles into the region
things will begin to dry out for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across Central/South
Central Kansas for the next 24hrs. Meanwhile some mid-level clouds
will spread into South Central Kansas Sunday morning and early
afternoon. Also could see a few showers/storms over South Central
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  83  63  79 /  10  30  30  40
Hutchinson      60  82  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
Newton          60  83  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
ElDorado        61  83  62  79 /  10  30  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   62  83  63  80 /  10  40  30  40
Russell         57  81  60  80 /  10  30  30  40
Great Bend      58  80  60  80 /  10  30  30  40
Salina          58  83  62  80 /  10  30  30  30
McPherson       58  82  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
Coffeyville     63  85  64  80 /  10  30  20  40
Chanute         62  85  64  81 /  10  30  20  40
Iola            62  85  63  81 /  10  30  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    63  85  63  80 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 282336
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper-level energy lifting into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. With a remnant
pocket of cooler air aloft lingering across portions of the region,
diurnally driven cumulus developed this afternoon with ample
insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The main forecast concerns are thunderstorm chances through the
first part of the work week and the arrival of a cold front on
Tuesday. Confidence is not particularly high in regards to how warm
temperatures will get over the next few days given the potential
for cloudy conditions and precipitation chances across much of
the area.

With the remnants of the diffuse surface boundary, that pushed
across central and southeast Kansas earlier this morning, draped
across central Oklahoma up into southwest Missouri thunderstorm
chances have been removed this evening across far southeast
Kansas. The diurnal cumulus that has developed this afternoon will
diminish once we lose daytime heating with a pleasant evening in
store. Sunday morning expect cloud cover to be on the increase as
low level moisture begins to return northward. Towards daybreak
models are consistent with H85 moisture transport edging northward
across south central and central Kansas. Lapse rates do not look
terribly impressive; however, with a pocket of steep lapse rates
in the mid levels will continue to include mentions of
thunderstorms beginning in the morning hours. Confidence is
highest towards the afternoon and evening hours for thunderstorm
chances as a subtle shortwave is progged to eject out of the
southern Rockies.

For Monday, there are some discrepancies amongst the models in
regards to the axis of moisture transport. Therefore, confidence
is not particularly high in the overall converge of thunderstorm
activity. Given this uncertainty, have opted to maintain at least
chance PoPs for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity that can
develop along and west of I-135 may see the potential to become
strong to severe. With a weakly capped and modestly unstable
atmosphere overhead, even if storms cannot become surface based a
few elevated storms will have enough shear and instability to work
with. East of the I-135 corridor the instability drops off fairly
dramatically; therefore, the potential for strong to severe storms
is far less pronounced in those areas. By Tuesday morning as the
aforementioned cold front approaches central Kansas expect
thunderstorms become more widespread across central Kansas. As the
frontal boundary slowly drops southeast during the day on Tuesday
thunderstorm activity will increase across the area. The speed of
the cold front is not terribly impressive with the upper-level
energy lifting across the northern Plains. Therefore, with saturated
soils already in place additional rainfall may exacerbate any
lingering and/or recent flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

By Wednesday morning/afternoon the frontal boundary will push across
south central and southeast Kansas; however, there will still be
the potential to see lingering thunderstorm activity during the
morning and afternoon hours. By Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as a stable post frontal airmass settles into the region
things will begin to dry out for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the night time hours.
Meanwhile mid-level clouds and scattered rain showers will be
possible across far Southern Kansas early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  83  63  79 /  10  30  30  40
Hutchinson      60  82  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
Newton          60  83  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
ElDorado        61  83  62  79 /  10  30  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   62  83  63  80 /  10  40  30  40
Russell         57  81  60  80 /  10  30  30  40
Great Bend      58  80  60  80 /  10  30  30  40
Salina          58  83  62  80 /  10  30  30  30
McPherson       58  82  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
Coffeyville     63  85  64  80 /  10  30  20  40
Chanute         62  85  64  81 /  10  30  20  40
Iola            62  85  63  81 /  10  30  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    63  85  63  80 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...CDJ





000
FXUS63 KICT 272329
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line this afternoon
across south central and central Kansas as upper-level energy
continues to lift out across the central Plains. With an unstable
atmosphere in place and decent shear, ongoing thunderstorm
activity has become strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The main forecast concerns are severe thunderstorms this evening,
additional chances for thunderstorm activity through the
beginning of the work week, a few storms could be strong to
severe, and the potential to see additional rainfall over already
saturated grounds. The flash flood watch will remain in effect
through Saturday morning given the potential for additional
flooding and/or worsening of ongoing flooding.

As upper-level energy continues to eject out across the central
Plains, expect thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage this
evening. With good instability and decent shear in place, severe
thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds; however, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Tonight as surface low pressure slowly moves eastward across
central Kansas, expect thunderstorms activity to slowly move
eastward as well. Into the late evening/overnight hours, with
lingering instability up to 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt of bulk
shear, severe storms will still be possible. After midnight into
early Saturday morning, thunderstorm activity will begin to
diminish from west to east across the area as large scale lift and
moisture transport will lift into Missouri. With surface low
pressure lifting northeast of the region, the dry line boundary
will become more diffuse and stall out across far southeast Kansas
on Saturday. With ample low-level moisture still in place ahead of
the surface boundary, expect at least moderate instability to
develop across southeast Kansas. Convergence is not outstanding
along this boundary during the late afternoon/early evening;
however, with moisture streaming back northward have included at
least slight chance mentions for thunderstorms across far
southeast Kansas Saturday night. With shear being on the weak end
of the spectrum across southeast Kansas, chances for severe
weather look more favorable south of the border in northern
Oklahoma.

Sunday and Monday chances for thunderstorms will return to much of
the area as multiple rounds of moisture return northward. Although
the shear does not look too impressive, albeit better on Monday
than Sunday, given the unstable, buoyant air mass that will be
overhead at least a few strong storms may be possible during the
end of the weekend/early work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

With increasing cloud cover over the region, temperatures look to
remain below normal through the work week. Chance for thunderstorms
will linger across much of the area as well. Models are fairly
consistent with cold front dropping south across the region during
the middle of the work week. Right now, there is some uncertainty
in regards to the actual timing of this frontal passage, with the
ECMWF being a bit more progressive than the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential tonight.

Quasi-linear north-south oriented thunderstorm complex over
south-central Kansas early this evening, is expected to shift
slowly eastward across the Flint Hills and Southeastern Kansas
this evening, in response to best moisture transport/upper
divergence signal shifting east. Other widely scattered
thunderstorms over west-central through north central Kansas will
persist into mid-late evening, underneath mid-level thermal trough
axis. Best chance for widespread storms will be at the CNU
terminal late this evening, with more isolated to widely separated
storms possible affecting the remaining TAF sites through at least
05Z tonight.

Portions of central/eastern Kansas could see stratus develop
overnight into early Saturday morning with light, very moist
boundary layer flow. IFR would be most likely category where
stratus develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  82  61  84 /  50  10  10  40
Hutchinson      57  81  59  84 /  50  10  10  40
Newton          57  80  60  83 /  60  20  10  40
ElDorado        59  81  61  84 /  70  20  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   60  83  63  85 /  60  10  10  40
Russell         56  79  57  82 /  50  20  10  40
Great Bend      55  80  58  82 /  40  10  10  40
Salina          57  80  59  84 /  60  20  10  40
McPherson       56  80  59  84 /  50  20  10  40
Coffeyville     64  83  63  85 /  60  20  20  40
Chanute         63  82  62  84 /  60  30  20  40
Iola            63  82  62  84 /  60  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    63  82  62  85 /  60  30  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...JMC





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