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000
FXUS63 KICT 011152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MCSS OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAILING MCS TO CLIP FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL LAY OUT/REINFORCE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY NEAR NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT DRYING
LOW LEVELS ...SUSPECT INITIATION WILL OCCUR AT TRIPLE POINT MID
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY IN A KC-CNU-SGF TRIANGLE. COMBO OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE FRONT. WESTERN EDGE MAY BE
I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY CLOSER TO EASTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. STORMS CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
THIS EVENING...BUT UNCLEAR HOW LONG MCS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO OVERRUN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT:
ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING DAYS...WITH A LOT RIDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WED NIGHT. THINKING TRIPLE POINT COULD BE IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHADE
POPS HIGHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT ODDS
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FRI:
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH
GFS FASTER/STRONGER THAN ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE/FRONT WOULD BE...BUT SHORTWAVE TRACK/WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD. OVERALL THEME IS
STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...AND TRANSITION INTO BROAD
ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS IS QUITE LOW...LET
ALONE MODEL QPF WHICH DRIVES INITIALIZATION GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONG 850-700MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SO LEFT VCSH MENTION OUT OF
CNU TAF. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT ICT-HUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT CAP STRENGTH WILL
SUPPRESS MOST ACTIVITY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES EXIST AT CNU
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDED VCTS THERE
FROM 00Z ON.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  73  89  68 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON     100  70  86  66 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON         100  71  86  66 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        99  71  88  67 /  20  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  73  93  68 /  20  30  30  50
RUSSELL         98  69  84  65 /  10  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      99  69  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
SALINA          97  70  84  66 /  10  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       99  70  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  91  68 /  30  40  20  40
CHANUTE         96  72  88  68 /  30  50  30  40
IOLA            95  71  86  67 /  30  50  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    96  73  90  68 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MCSS OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAILING MCS TO CLIP FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL LAY OUT/REINFORCE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY NEAR NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT DRYING
LOW LEVELS ...SUSPECT INITIATION WILL OCCUR AT TRIPLE POINT MID
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY IN A KC-CNU-SGF TRIANGLE. COMBO OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE FRONT. WESTERN EDGE MAY BE
I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY CLOSER TO EASTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. STORMS CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
THIS EVENING...BUT UNCLEAR HOW LONG MCS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO OVERRUN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT:
ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING DAYS...WITH A LOT RIDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WED NIGHT. THINKING TRIPLE POINT COULD BE IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHADE
POPS HIGHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT ODDS
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FRI:
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH
GFS FASTER/STRONGER THAN ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE/FRONT WOULD BE...BUT SHORTWAVE TRACK/WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD. OVERALL THEME IS
STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...AND TRANSITION INTO BROAD
ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS IS QUITE LOW...LET
ALONE MODEL QPF WHICH DRIVES INITIALIZATION GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONG 850-700MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SO LEFT VCSH MENTION OUT OF
CNU TAF. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT ICT-HUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT CAP STRENGTH WILL
SUPPRESS MOST ACTIVITY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES EXIST AT CNU
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDED VCTS THERE
FROM 00Z ON.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  73  89  68 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON     100  70  86  66 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON         100  71  86  66 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        99  71  88  67 /  20  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  73  93  68 /  20  30  30  50
RUSSELL         98  69  84  65 /  10  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      99  69  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
SALINA          97  70  84  66 /  10  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       99  70  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  91  68 /  30  40  20  40
CHANUTE         96  72  88  68 /  30  50  30  40
IOLA            95  71  86  67 /  30  50  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    96  73  90  68 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010827
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MCSS OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAILING MCS TO CLIP FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL LAY OUT/REINFORCE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY NEAR NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT DRYING
LOW LEVELS ...SUSPECT INITIATION WILL OCCUR AT TRIPLE POINT MID
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY IN A KC-CNU-SGF TRIANGLE. COMBO OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE FRONT. WESTERN EDGE MAY BE
I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY CLOSER TO EASTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. STORMS CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
THIS EVENING...BUT UNCLEAR HOW LONG MCS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO OVERRUN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT:
ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING DAYS...WITH A LOT RIDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WED NIGHT. THINKING TRIPLE POINT COULD BE IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHADE
POPS HIGHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT ODDS
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FRI:
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH
GFS FASTER/STRONGER THAN ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE/FRONT WOULD BE...BUT SHORTWAVE TRACK/WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD. OVERALL THEME IS
STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...AND TRANSITION INTO BROAD
ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS IS QUITE LOW...LET
ALONE MODEL QPF WHICH DRIVES INITIALIZATION GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  73  89  68 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON     100  70  86  66 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON         100  71  86  66 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        99  71  88  67 /  20  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  73  93  68 /  20  30  30  50
RUSSELL         98  69  84  65 /  10  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      99  69  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
SALINA          97  70  84  66 /  10  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       99  70  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  91  68 /  30  40  20  40
CHANUTE         96  72  88  68 /  30  50  30  40
IOLA            95  71  86  67 /  30  50  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    96  73  90  68 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010827
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MCSS OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAILING MCS TO CLIP FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL LAY OUT/REINFORCE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY NEAR NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT DRYING
LOW LEVELS ...SUSPECT INITIATION WILL OCCUR AT TRIPLE POINT MID
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY IN A KC-CNU-SGF TRIANGLE. COMBO OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE FRONT. WESTERN EDGE MAY BE
I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY CLOSER TO EASTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. STORMS CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
THIS EVENING...BUT UNCLEAR HOW LONG MCS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO OVERRUN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT:
ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING DAYS...WITH A LOT RIDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WED NIGHT. THINKING TRIPLE POINT COULD BE IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHADE
POPS HIGHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT ODDS
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FRI:
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH
GFS FASTER/STRONGER THAN ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE/FRONT WOULD BE...BUT SHORTWAVE TRACK/WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD. OVERALL THEME IS
STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...AND TRANSITION INTO BROAD
ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS IS QUITE LOW...LET
ALONE MODEL QPF WHICH DRIVES INITIALIZATION GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  73  89  68 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON     100  70  86  66 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON         100  71  86  66 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        99  71  88  67 /  20  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  73  93  68 /  20  30  30  50
RUSSELL         98  69  84  65 /  10  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      99  69  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
SALINA          97  70  84  66 /  10  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       99  70  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  91  68 /  30  40  20  40
CHANUTE         96  72  88  68 /  30  50  30  40
IOLA            95  71  86  67 /  30  50  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    96  73  90  68 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVLEOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY
WED. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY FOR KSLN AS MID LEVEL
LIFT INCREASES. WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVLEOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY
WED. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY FOR KSLN AS MID LEVEL
LIFT INCREASES. WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVLEOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDDAY
WED. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY FOR KSLN AS MID LEVEL
LIFT INCREASES. WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 302057
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 302057
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHER THAN SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF MCS TRACK TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIBBLE SMALL POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MESSY THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
MUCH MORE DIVERGENT WITH BOTH TIMING OF UPPER RIPPLES AND LOCATION
OF RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FAR EAST MAY SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MO...AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL. HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. WILL BROADLY DRIBBLE
POPS EAST OF I-35 FOR CLIMATOLOGY/WARM SECTOR/MCS POTENTIAL WED
NIGHT.

THU:
WIDE RANGE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD...RANGING
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN OK. SO IT IS ANYONES GUESS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. THAT LED TO THE SHOTGUN APPROACH
FOR POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP THU NIGHT.
CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. HIGHS ARE EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...WHICH IN
THEORY COULD/SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
ALSO MIGHT ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THAT SAID...TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WPC GUIDANCE RATHER THAN
THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS WHICH CHASE CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LESS LIKELY. - HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      99  75  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  75 100  71 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76 100  72 /   0  10  20  30
RUSSELL        101  74  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      99  75  98  68 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          99  74  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       99  75  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         94  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHER THAN SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF MCS TRACK TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIBBLE SMALL POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MESSY THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
MUCH MORE DIVERGENT WITH BOTH TIMING OF UPPER RIPPLES AND LOCATION
OF RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FAR EAST MAY SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MO...AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL. HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. WILL BROADLY DRIBBLE
POPS EAST OF I-35 FOR CLIMATOLOGY/WARM SECTOR/MCS POTENTIAL WED
NIGHT.

THU:
WIDE RANGE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD...RANGING
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN OK. SO IT IS ANYONES GUESS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. THAT LED TO THE SHOTGUN APPROACH
FOR POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP THU NIGHT.
CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. HIGHS ARE EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...WHICH IN
THEORY COULD/SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
ALSO MIGHT ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THAT SAID...TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WPC GUIDANCE RATHER THAN
THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS WHICH CHASE CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LESS LIKELY. - HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      99  75  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  75 100  71 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76 100  72 /   0  10  20  30
RUSSELL        101  74  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      99  75  98  68 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          99  74  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       99  75  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         94  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301144
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHER THAN SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF MCS TRACK TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIBBLE SMALL POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MESSY THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
MUCH MORE DIVERGENT WITH BOTH TIMING OF UPPER RIPPLES AND LOCATION
OF RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FAR EAST MAY SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MO...AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL. HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. WILL BROADLY DRIBBLE
POPS EAST OF I-35 FOR CLIMATOLOGY/WARM SECTOR/MCS POTENTIAL WED
NIGHT.

THU:
WIDE RANGE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD...RANGING
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN OK. SO IT IS ANYONES GUESS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. THAT LED TO THE SHOTGUN APPROACH
FOR POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP THU NIGHT.
CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. HIGHS ARE EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...WHICH IN
THEORY COULD/SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
ALSO MIGHT ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THAT SAID...TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WPC GUIDANCE RATHER THAN
THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS WHICH CHASE CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LESS LIKELY. - HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THROUGH
ABOUT MID-MORNING AT SLN-HUT-RSL...IN A ZONE OF WEAK 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THINKING THIS THREAT IS FAIRLY MINIMAL SO
DID NOT MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF SLN-RSL BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THINKING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...WITHIN ZONE OF BEST
850-700MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      99  75  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  75 100  71 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL        101  74  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      99  75  98  68 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          99  74  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       99  75  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         94  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300803
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHER THAN SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF MCS TRACK TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIBBLE SMALL POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MESSSY THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
MUCH MORE DIVERGENT WITH BOTH TIMING OF UPPER RIPPLES AND LOCATION
OF RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FAR EAST MAY SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MO...AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL. HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. WILL BROADLY
DRIBBLE POPS EAST OF I-35 FOR CLIMATOLOGY/WARM SECTOR/MCS
POTENTIAL WED NIGHT.

THU:
WIDE RANGE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD...RANGING
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN OK. SO IT IS ANYONES GUESS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. THAT LED TO THE SHOTGUN APPROACH
FOR POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP THU NIGHT.
CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. HIGHS ARE EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...WHICH IN
THEORY COULD/SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
ALSO MIGHT ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THAT SAID...TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WPC GUIDANCE RATHER THAN
THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS WHICH CHASE CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LESS LIKELY. - HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  75 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      99  74  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          98  74  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  74 100  71 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL        101  73  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      99  74  98  68 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          99  73  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       99  73  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            94  73  95  72 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300803
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHER THAN SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF MCS TRACK TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIBBLE SMALL POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MESSSY THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
MUCH MORE DIVERGENT WITH BOTH TIMING OF UPPER RIPPLES AND LOCATION
OF RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FAR EAST MAY SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MO...AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL. HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. WILL BROADLY
DRIBBLE POPS EAST OF I-35 FOR CLIMATOLOGY/WARM SECTOR/MCS
POTENTIAL WED NIGHT.

THU:
WIDE RANGE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD...RANGING
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN OK. SO IT IS ANYONES GUESS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. THAT LED TO THE SHOTGUN APPROACH
FOR POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP THU NIGHT.
CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. HIGHS ARE EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...WHICH IN
THEORY COULD/SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
ALSO MIGHT ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THAT SAID...TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WPC GUIDANCE RATHER THAN
THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS WHICH CHASE CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LESS LIKELY. - HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  75 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      99  74  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          98  74  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  74 100  71 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL        101  73  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      99  74  98  68 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          99  73  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       99  73  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         94  73  96  72 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            94  73  95  72 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300449
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300449
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 292334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 292334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292004
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 292004
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291708
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED
WHICH...GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
ON WED WITH FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE
FAVORED BIG WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM
GUIDANCE/ THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291708
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED
WHICH...GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
ON WED WITH FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE
FAVORED BIG WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM
GUIDANCE/ THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 291125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED
WHICH...GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
ON WED WITH FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE
FAVORED BIG WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM
GUIDANCE/ THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135...AS 800-600MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MEAGER...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER IT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED
WHICH...GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
ON WED WITH FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE
FAVORED BIG WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM
GUIDANCE/ THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135...AS 800-600MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MEAGER...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER IT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290841
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON UE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH
MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED WHICH...GIVEN
FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES
IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON
WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ON WED WITH FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE FAVORED BIG
WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM GUIDANCE/
THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290841
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON UE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH
MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED WHICH...GIVEN
FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES
IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON
WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ON WED WITH FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE FAVORED BIG
WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM GUIDANCE/
THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290445
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290445
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290445
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO PLEASANT FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282339
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A DIFFUSE "COLD" FRONT CONTINUED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KCNU BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 282339
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A DIFFUSE "COLD" FRONT CONTINUED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KCNU BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 282339
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A DIFFUSE "COLD" FRONT CONTINUED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KCNU BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH..WITH
PLACES IN CENTRAL KS SHIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ALSO COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN KS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS A CAPPING INVERSION AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. SO WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KCNU AND KICT TAFS FROM 22Z-03Z...JUST IN
CASE A STORM CAN DEVELOP...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS
TIME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND IS
APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF WICHITA TO SOUTH OF EMPORIA AND EASTWARD
SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT
AS OF 3PM AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN BUTLER
COUNTY.

HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY WINDS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3PM...ANALYZED
ML CAPE/FORECAST CAPE IS TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH 30+ KTS 0-6 SHEAR FROM ROUGHLY THE TURNPIKE
EASTWARD. CONVECTION WEST OF THE TURNPIKE IS POSSIBLE IN A MORE
ISOLATED NATURE...WITH A LESSER SEVERE EXTENT...WHILE EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL OF QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TO
MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S CONTINUING.
HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH EVEN HIGHER...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT
DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE BROAD AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTWARD TROUGH. A FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
STALL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTH EARLY SATURDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY
JULY IN THE LOW 90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH..WITH
PLACES IN CENTRAL KS SHIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ALSO COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN KS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS A CAPPING INVERSION AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. SO WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KCNU AND KICT TAFS FROM 22Z-03Z...JUST IN
CASE A STORM CAN DEVELOP...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS
TIME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      62  93  65  99 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  92  66  96 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  90  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  68  97 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  94  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  93  64  99 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          63  94  67  98 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  92  65  98 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10
CHANUTE         65  91  66  93 /  40   0   0  10
IOLA            65  90  66  92 /  30   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  67  93 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281715
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS
TOWARDS THE MID-UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-70.  INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SBCAPES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH...THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
PUSHING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY 54 BY THIS AFTERNOON.  DO SEE
CONVERGENCE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. THINK AN ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS THE
MOST IN THIS AREA AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AS HEATING INCREASES.

IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35
KTS. GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...A SOUTHWARD MOVING SUPERCELL
CHANCE EXISTS...WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F...GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREACH THE CAP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST (AT BEST) INSTABILITY...LIMITING
UPDRAFT/STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WONDERING IF THE GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM FAR EASTERN KS ON EAST WHERE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. DESPITE THE DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO CONCERNS EXPRESSED
ABOVE...ALTHOUGH LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A TAD MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER MID-
AMERICA IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARMEST DAY
FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S SHOULD PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH..WITH
PLACES IN CENTRAL KS SHIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ALSO COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN KS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS A CAPPING INVERSION AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. SO WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KCNU AND KICT TAFS FROM 22Z-03Z...JUST IN
CASE A STORM CAN DEVELOP...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS
TIME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  66  93  68 /  30  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  61  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          96  64  91  67 /  20  10   0   0
ELDORADO        94  64  90  66 /  30  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  67  93  68 /  30  30   0   0
RUSSELL         97  61  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      97  62  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          96  63  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       97  62  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     91  66  91  67 /  30  40   0   0
CHANUTE         91  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
IOLA            90  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  91  65 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281715
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS
TOWARDS THE MID-UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-70.  INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SBCAPES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH...THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
PUSHING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY 54 BY THIS AFTERNOON.  DO SEE
CONVERGENCE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. THINK AN ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS THE
MOST IN THIS AREA AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AS HEATING INCREASES.

IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35
KTS. GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...A SOUTHWARD MOVING SUPERCELL
CHANCE EXISTS...WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F...GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREACH THE CAP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST (AT BEST) INSTABILITY...LIMITING
UPDRAFT/STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WONDERING IF THE GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM FAR EASTERN KS ON EAST WHERE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. DESPITE THE DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO CONCERNS EXPRESSED
ABOVE...ALTHOUGH LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A TAD MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER MID-
AMERICA IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARMEST DAY
FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S SHOULD PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH..WITH
PLACES IN CENTRAL KS SHIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ALSO COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN KS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS A CAPPING INVERSION AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. SO WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KCNU AND KICT TAFS FROM 22Z-03Z...JUST IN
CASE A STORM CAN DEVELOP...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SMALL AT THIS
TIME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  66  93  68 /  30  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  61  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          96  64  91  67 /  20  10   0   0
ELDORADO        94  64  90  66 /  30  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  67  93  68 /  30  30   0   0
RUSSELL         97  61  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      97  62  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          96  63  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       97  62  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     91  66  91  67 /  30  40   0   0
CHANUTE         91  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
IOLA            90  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  91  65 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281653
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS
TOWARDS THE MID-UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-70.  INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SBCAPES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH...THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
PUSHING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY 54 BY THIS AFTERNOON.  DO SEE
CONVERGENCE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. THINK AN ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS THE
MOST IN THIS AREA AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AS HEATING INCREASES.

IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35
KTS. GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...A SOUTHWARD MOVING SUPERCELL
CHANCE EXISTS...WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F...GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREACH THE CAP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST (AT BEST) INSTABILITY...LIMITING
UPDRAFT/STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WONDERING IF THE GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM FAR EASTERN KS ON EAST WHERE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. DESPITE THE DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO CONCERNS EXPRESSED
ABOVE...ALTHOUGH LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A TAD MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER MID-
AMERICA IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARMEST DAY
FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S SHOULD PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KRSL/KSLN
MIDDAY...KHUT/KICT LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIFFUSE PASSAGE EARLY
THIS EVENING AT KCNU. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IS A BIT MARGINAL...
SO BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCNU WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KICT/KHUT. CHANCES AT KSLN/KRSL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION DUE TO THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  66  93  68 /  30  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  61  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          96  64  91  67 /  20  10   0   0
ELDORADO        94  64  90  66 /  30  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  67  93  68 /  30  30   0   0
RUSSELL         97  61  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      97  62  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          96  63  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       97  62  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     91  66  91  67 /  30  40   0   0
CHANUTE         91  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
IOLA            90  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  91  65 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281653
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS
TOWARDS THE MID-UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-70.  INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SBCAPES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH...THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
PUSHING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY 54 BY THIS AFTERNOON.  DO SEE
CONVERGENCE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. THINK AN ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS THE
MOST IN THIS AREA AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AS HEATING INCREASES.

IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35
KTS. GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...A SOUTHWARD MOVING SUPERCELL
CHANCE EXISTS...WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F...GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREACH THE CAP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST (AT BEST) INSTABILITY...LIMITING
UPDRAFT/STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WONDERING IF THE GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM FAR EASTERN KS ON EAST WHERE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. DESPITE THE DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO CONCERNS EXPRESSED
ABOVE...ALTHOUGH LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A TAD MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER MID-
AMERICA IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARMEST DAY
FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S SHOULD PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KRSL/KSLN
MIDDAY...KHUT/KICT LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIFFUSE PASSAGE EARLY
THIS EVENING AT KCNU. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IS A BIT MARGINAL...
SO BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCNU WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KICT/KHUT. CHANCES AT KSLN/KRSL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION DUE TO THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  66  93  68 /  30  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  61  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          96  64  91  67 /  20  10   0   0
ELDORADO        94  64  90  66 /  30  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  67  93  68 /  30  30   0   0
RUSSELL         97  61  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      97  62  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          96  63  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       97  62  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     91  66  91  67 /  30  40   0   0
CHANUTE         91  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
IOLA            90  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  91  65 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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