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000
FXUS63 KICT 302038
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT TRACKED
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS EXPECTED THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COOLED AIR HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN IN UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN SHINING. THE MAIN FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AS
VISIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL CU FIELD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT:
DESPITE SOME LOW-MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SHOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN THE
CHANCES AND KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP.

FRIDAY:
THINK THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...BUT HAVE SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. BY LATE FRIDAY THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NEBRASKA THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
THIS CHANCE AND HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES PAST 00Z
SATURDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY EARLY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. HAVE KEPT SMALL CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY...WITH SUNDAY ALSO DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE WORK WEEK WILL STAY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE IS AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IMPACTS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  95  68  92 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          66  93  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  93  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  91  70  88 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         63  92  66  92 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      65  91  67  90 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          66  96  69  94 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       66  94  68  91 /  10  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  70  89 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  92  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  91  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  92  69  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 302038
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT TRACKED
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS EXPECTED THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COOLED AIR HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN IN UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN SHINING. THE MAIN FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AS
VISIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL CU FIELD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT:
DESPITE SOME LOW-MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SHOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN THE
CHANCES AND KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP.

FRIDAY:
THINK THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...BUT HAVE SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. BY LATE FRIDAY THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NEBRASKA THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
THIS CHANCE AND HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES PAST 00Z
SATURDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY EARLY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. HAVE KEPT SMALL CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY...WITH SUNDAY ALSO DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE WORK WEEK WILL STAY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE IS AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IMPACTS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  95  68  92 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          66  93  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  93  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  91  70  88 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         63  92  66  92 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      65  91  67  90 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          66  96  69  94 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       66  94  68  91 /  10  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  70  89 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  92  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  91  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  92  69  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  50  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  50  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  50  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  50  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  40  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1007 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...THUS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
OF HUT AND ICT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES AT
TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TOO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1007 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AND VERY SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WANE...AND
VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE MCS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MID DAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING CONSIDERABLY.

THE SLOW AND PLODDING MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF KICT...BEFORE IT COMES TO AN END.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MORNING MCS WILL IMPACT THE
REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS AREA WILL BE WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TIME FOR AFTERNOON RECOVERY.
SO MAY ADJUST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS DOWN SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...THUS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
OF HUT AND ICT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES AT
TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TOO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  92  69 /  90  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      87  68  93  67 /  60  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  67  92  67 /  70  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  70  91  68 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  68  91  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301120
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...THUS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
OF HUT AND ICT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES AT
TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TOO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  69  92  69 /  50  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  68  93  67 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        88  67  92  67 /  30  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  91  68 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  50  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  68  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    88  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  69  92  69 /  30  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  68  93  67 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        88  67  92  67 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  91  68 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  68  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    88  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 300442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  40  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  40  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  30  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 300442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  40  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  40  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  30  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  40  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  40  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  30  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  40  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  40  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  30  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292357
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. STORM
COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN ANY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  50  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  50  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  40  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 292357
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. STORM
COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN ANY TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  67  89 /  50  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  64  91 /  40  40  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  66  89 /  40  40  10  10
ELDORADO        68  84  65  90 /  50  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  84  66  88 /  50  50  20  20
RUSSELL         64  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  66  90 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          67  89  65  94 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  86  64  91 /  40  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  68  90 /  40  50  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  65  91 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            68  86  66  90 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  65  90 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292032
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  84  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
ELDORADO        68  84  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  86  70  90 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         65  88  68  92 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  86  68  90 /  30  30  10  20
SALINA          67  87  67  92 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       67  84  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            68  85  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  87  69  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292032
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME HAVE HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER IN GENERAL...BUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTH OF A MESOSCALE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING...LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STARTING
THURSDAY...THING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
HIGHS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN...BUT THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT
FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CENTRAL CONUS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY
WARM...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...IN THE MID 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK OVERLY GREAT. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  85  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  84  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          67  84  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
ELDORADO        68  84  68  89 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  86  70  90 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         65  88  68  92 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      66  86  68  90 /  30  30  10  20
SALINA          67  87  67  92 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       67  84  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  87  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
CHANUTE         69  86  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            68  85  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  87  69  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 291655
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  50  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
ELDORADO        87  68  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  30  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  60  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  87  70 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  87  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 291655
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  50  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
ELDORADO        87  68  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  30  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  60  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  87  70 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  87  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291655
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  50  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
ELDORADO        87  68  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  30  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  60  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  87  70 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  87  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 291655
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT MIDDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  50  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  70  20  20  10
ELDORADO        87  68  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  30  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  60  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  87  70 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  87  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  30  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  40  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  50  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 291111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  30  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  40  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  50  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  30  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  40  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  50  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  30  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  50  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  40  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  50  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290831
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIT-OR-MISS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY SLN-RSL-HUT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE. CHANCES EXPAND/SHIFT SOUTH
SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ICT-CNU MAY EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE
ACTION. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  20  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  30  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290831
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIT-OR-MISS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY SLN-RSL-HUT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE. CHANCES EXPAND/SHIFT SOUTH
SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ICT-CNU MAY EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE
ACTION. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  20  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  30  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290831
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIT-OR-MISS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY SLN-RSL-HUT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE. CHANCES EXPAND/SHIFT SOUTH
SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ICT-CNU MAY EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE
ACTION. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  20  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  30  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290831
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS
BY MID MORNING. EXTENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
MORNING IS QUESTIONABLE. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN PRECIPITATION
GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAK 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK THIS
AFTERNOON/DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS. AFTER BRIEF REPRIEVE...INCREASE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KS COULD GENERATE MORE STORMS THAT WOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS.

THU:
STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WOULD BE SUFFICE LIFT TO
GENERATE/SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS PORTEND
RELATIVELY WEAK/CHAOTIC FLOW WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BREAK CAPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS THU NIGHT LOOK LESS LIKELY IN
ABSENCE OF GOOD RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRI:
WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES GOING ON FRI DURING THE DAY AS
RETURN FLOW BECOMES A BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST. NOT
PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC...BUT NOT READY TO FLIP-FLOP FORECAST
EITHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF FRONT
ON SUN-MON...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON BOTH TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIT-OR-MISS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY SLN-RSL-HUT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE. CHANCES EXPAND/SHIFT SOUTH
SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ICT-CNU MAY EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE
ACTION. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  70  85  69 /  20  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
NEWTON          86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
ELDORADO        86  68  84  68 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         85  65  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  66  86  68 /  20  30  30  10
SALINA          86  67  87  67 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  30  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         89  69  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS FROM
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK (BUT ADEQUATE) CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WONDERING IF THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS...IN ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE. IN EITHER CASE...NO LONGER EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIT-OR-MISS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY SLN-RSL-HUT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE. CHANCES EXPAND/SHIFT SOUTH
SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ICT-CNU MAY EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE
ACTION. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  88  69  88 /  30  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
NEWTON          72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  91  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELL         67  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  83  66  88 /  40  20  40  20
SALINA          70  84  66  88 /  50  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  87 /  40  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         74  88  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            74  87  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS FROM
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK (BUT ADEQUATE) CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WONDERING IF THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS...IN ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE. IN EITHER CASE...NO LONGER EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIT-OR-MISS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY SLN-RSL-HUT...WITHIN A ZONE OF
WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB CONVERGENCE. CHANCES EXPAND/SHIFT SOUTH
SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ICT-CNU MAY EVENTUALLY GET IN ON THE
ACTION. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  88  69  88 /  30  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
NEWTON          72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  91  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELL         67  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  83  66  88 /  40  20  40  20
SALINA          70  84  66  88 /  50  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  87 /  40  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         74  88  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            74  87  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290242
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS FROM
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK (BUT ADEQUATE) CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WONDERING IF THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS...IN ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE. IN EITHER CASE...NO LONGER EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  88  69  88 /  30  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
NEWTON          72  86  67  87 /  30  30  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  91  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELL         67  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  83  66  88 /  40  20  40  20
SALINA          70  84  66  88 /  40  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  87 /  40  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         74  88  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            74  87  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 290242
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS FROM
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK (BUT ADEQUATE) CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WONDERING IF THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS...IN ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE. IN EITHER CASE...NO LONGER EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  88  69  88 /  30  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
NEWTON          72  86  67  87 /  30  30  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  91  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELL         67  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  83  66  88 /  40  20  40  20
SALINA          70  84  66  88 /  40  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  87 /  40  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         74  88  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            74  87  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290242
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS FROM
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK (BUT ADEQUATE) CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WONDERING IF THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS...IN ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE. IN EITHER CASE...NO LONGER EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  88  69  88 /  30  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
NEWTON          72  86  67  87 /  30  30  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  91  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELL         67  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  83  66  88 /  40  20  40  20
SALINA          70  84  66  88 /  40  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  87 /  40  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         74  88  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            74  87  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      70  86  67  87 /  60  30  40  20
NEWTON          70  86  67  87 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        71  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  69  89 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELL         66  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      67  83  66  88 /  50  20  40  20
SALINA          69  84  66  88 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  84  66  87 /  60  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         73  88  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            72  87  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 282349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      70  86  67  87 /  60  30  40  20
NEWTON          70  86  67  87 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        71  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  69  89 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELL         66  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      67  83  66  88 /  50  20  40  20
SALINA          69  84  66  88 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  84  66  87 /  60  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         73  88  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            72  87  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      70  86  67  87 /  60  30  40  20
NEWTON          70  86  67  87 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        71  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  69  89 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELL         66  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      67  83  66  88 /  50  20  40  20
SALINA          69  84  66  88 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  84  66  87 /  60  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         73  88  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            72  87  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 282349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      70  86  67  87 /  60  30  40  20
NEWTON          70  86  67  87 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        71  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  69  89 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELL         66  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      67  83  66  88 /  50  20  40  20
SALINA          69  84  66  88 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  84  66  87 /  60  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         73  88  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            72  87  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282056
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORYWHICH WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LWOER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT
MIDDAY...IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
DEEPEN AND PENETRATE THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TOWARD EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      70  86  67  87 /  60  30  40  20
NEWTON          70  86  67  87 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        71  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  69  89 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELL         66  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      67  83  66  88 /  50  20  40  20
SALINA          69  84  66  88 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  84  66  87 /  60  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         73  88  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            72  87  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282056
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORYWHICH WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LWOER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT
MIDDAY...IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
DEEPEN AND PENETRATE THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TOWARD EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  69  88 /  40  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      70  86  67  87 /  60  30  40  20
NEWTON          70  86  67  87 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        71  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  69  89 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELL         66  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      67  83  66  88 /  50  20  40  20
SALINA          69  84  66  88 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       69  84  66  87 /  60  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         73  88  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            72  87  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281633
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT
MIDDAY...IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
DEEPEN AND PENETRATE THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TOWARD EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  30  60  30  40
NEWTON         100  70  87  66 /  20  40  30  40
ELDORADO        99  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  20  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  30  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  40  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  40  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /   0  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /   0  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281633
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT
MIDDAY...IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
DEEPEN AND PENETRATE THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TOWARD EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  30  60  30  40
NEWTON         100  70  87  66 /  20  40  30  40
ELDORADO        99  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  20  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  30  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  40  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  40  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /   0  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /   0  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281633
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT
MIDDAY...IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
DEEPEN AND PENETRATE THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TOWARD EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  30  60  30  40
NEWTON         100  70  87  66 /  20  40  30  40
ELDORADO        99  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  20  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  30  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  40  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  40  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /   0  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /   0  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  10  60  30  40
NEWTON          98  70  87  66 /  10  50  30  40
ELDORADO        98  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  20  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  10  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  10  60  30  40
NEWTON          98  70  87  66 /  10  50  30  40
ELDORADO        98  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  20  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  10  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280824 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  10  60  30  40
NEWTON          98  70  87  66 /  10  50  30  40
ELDORADO        98  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  20  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  10  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280824 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  10  60  30  40
NEWTON          98  70  87  66 /  10  50  30  40
ELDORADO        98  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  20  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  10  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENERIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  10  60  30  40
NEWTON          98  70  87  66 /  10  50  30  40
ELDORADO        98  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  20  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  10  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENERIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  10  60  30  40
NEWTON          98  70  87  66 /  10  50  30  40
ELDORADO        98  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  20  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  10  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      77 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          76 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        77  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         75  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      75  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          78  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       77  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         76  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            76  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      77 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          76 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        77  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         75  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      75  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          78  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       77  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         76  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            76  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      77 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          76 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        77  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         75  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      75  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          78  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       77  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         76  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            76  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY GRAZE SLN-RSL.
HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT-RSL. INSERTED VCTS FOR
THESE SITES BEGINNING 22-01Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      77 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          76 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        77  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         75  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      75  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          78  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       77  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         76  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            76  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272331
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT.
IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN HOLD TOGETHER...IT MAY GRAZE RSL AFTER
04-06Z OR SO. LEFT MENTION OUT OF RSL TAF FOR NOW...AS BRUNT OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT. GIVEN LOW
PREDICTABILITY...LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      78 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          77 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        78  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         76  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      76  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          79  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       78  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         77  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            77  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    77  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-095-096-
100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272331
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID-UPPER 90S & SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10-20 MPH INDUCING SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN
100-103 WITH THE HIGHER INDICES "FAVORING" NO PARTICULAR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HEADLINE: HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
& SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS MCPHERSON FROM 1PM-8PM ON TUESDAY.

THIS EVENING-TUE:
THE HIGHLIGHT ONCE AGAIN IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL VENTURE INTO
ADVISORY COUNTRY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS TUE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-DECK TROF THAT IS MOVING E TOWARD THE NORTHERN
& CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS
NE ACROSS MT LATE TONIGHT & TUE. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
CENTRAL KS TUE AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS & WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95
TO 100 IN MOST AREAS...HEAT INDICES WOULD REACH 105-110 ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & TO A LESSER `DEGREE` SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS TUE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST MANITOBA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER TUE NIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SE ACROSS KS & WITH MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE TUE NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHIFTING SE WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE NE ACROSS ONTARIO...THE FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO OK WHERE IT WOULD STALL IN AN
E-W MANNER WED NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SE FROM NEBRASKA
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE WED NIGHT.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON THU & WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY S WINDS WILL RETURN &
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD RETURN THU AFTERNOON & SLOWLY INCREASE THU
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT IS
FEEBLE...SO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEHAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER HUDSON BAY & WITH STRONG
& MASSIVE UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...A NW FLOW REGIME WOULD SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MASSIVE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT.
IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN HOLD TOGETHER...IT MAY GRAZE RSL AFTER
04-06Z OR SO. LEFT MENTION OUT OF RSL TAF FOR NOW...AS BRUNT OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TUESDAY ALL AREAS...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS FRONT AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF SLN-HUT. GIVEN LOW
PREDICTABILITY...LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78 101  75  88 /   0  10  60  20
HUTCHINSON      78 101  72  87 /  10  20  60  30
NEWTON          77 100  73  87 /   0  10  60  30
ELDORADO        78  98  74  87 /   0  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  99  78  89 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELL         76  93  69  84 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      76  95  69  85 /  10  30  40  30
SALINA          79  99  69  86 /  10  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       78  99  71  86 /  10  20  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  96  77  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         77  96  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
IOLA            77  96  75  87 /   0   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    77  96  76  89 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-095-096-
100.

&&

$$




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