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000
FXUS63 KICT 012342
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOOP OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ENDING AT
1935Z SHOWS A MESO-LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT IS RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND MANIFESTS ITSELF WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...THERE REALLY IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. SOME OF THESE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
STORMS TO EASTERN KANSAS. THE PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE IS QUITE
LOW. BEST CHANCE IS SUNDAY.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN
SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH
LOWS NEAR 70S.

THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. REALLY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AND
LOCATION TO STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE COULD BE
STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT NO STRONG SIGNAL THAT WOULD INDICATE A
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE SHEAR
BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRADDLE ROUGHLY THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING BACK
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING NORTH WINDS AT ICT
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF ICT THROUGH ABOUT
02Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT VCSH.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THINKING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST
KS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
ICT-HUT-SLN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  88  65  91 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          65  87  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        66  87  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         61  89  65  92 /  10   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      61  88  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          63  89  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  88  65  91 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         64  86  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            63  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  87  65  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 012342
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOOP OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ENDING AT
1935Z SHOWS A MESO-LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT IS RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND MANIFESTS ITSELF WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...THERE REALLY IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. SOME OF THESE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
STORMS TO EASTERN KANSAS. THE PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE IS QUITE
LOW. BEST CHANCE IS SUNDAY.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN
SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH
LOWS NEAR 70S.

THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. REALLY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AND
LOCATION TO STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE COULD BE
STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT NO STRONG SIGNAL THAT WOULD INDICATE A
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE SHEAR
BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRADDLE ROUGHLY THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING BACK
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING NORTH WINDS AT ICT
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF ICT THROUGH ABOUT
02Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT VCSH.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THINKING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST
KS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
ICT-HUT-SLN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  88  65  91 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          65  87  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        66  87  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         61  89  65  92 /  10   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      61  88  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          63  89  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  88  65  91 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         64  86  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            63  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  87  65  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 012000
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOOP OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ENDING AT
1935Z SHOWS A MESO-LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT IS RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND MANIFESTS ITSELF WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...THERE REALLY IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. SOME OF THESE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
STORMS TO EASTERN KANSAS. THE PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE IS QUITE
LOW. BEST CHANCE IS SUNDAY.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN
SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
NEAR 70S.

THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
REALLY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION TO
STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG AT THIS
TIME...BUT NO STRONG SIGNAL THAT WOULD INDICATE A WIDESPREAD
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE SHEAR BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AT 17Z...A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS
& SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE KICT JURISDICTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEREBY
KEEPING WINDS <10KTS FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`LL BE EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER THRU SAT AFTERNOON & LIKELY BEYOND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  90  64  91 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  88  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  89  66  93 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  87  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         65  85  64  88 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            64  85  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  86  64  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 012000
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOOP OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ENDING AT
1935Z SHOWS A MESO-LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT IS RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND MANIFESTS ITSELF WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...THERE REALLY IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. SOME OF THESE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
STORMS TO EASTERN KANSAS. THE PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE IS QUITE
LOW. BEST CHANCE IS SUNDAY.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN
SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS
NEAR 70S.

THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
REALLY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION TO
STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG AT THIS
TIME...BUT NO STRONG SIGNAL THAT WOULD INDICATE A WIDESPREAD
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE SHEAR BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AT 17Z...A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS
& SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE KICT JURISDICTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEREBY
KEEPING WINDS <10KTS FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`LL BE EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER THRU SAT AFTERNOON & LIKELY BEYOND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  90  64  91 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  88  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  89  66  93 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  87  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  87  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         65  85  64  88 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            64  85  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  86  64  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE DENSE FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM
HAS DISSIPATED VERY CLOSE TO "SCHEDULE". FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE EXPECTED TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AT 17Z...A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS
& SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE KICT JURISDICTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEREBY
KEEPING WINDS <10KTS FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`LL BE EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER THRU SAT AFTERNOON & LIKELY BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 011747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE DENSE FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM
HAS DISSIPATED VERY CLOSE TO "SCHEDULE". FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE EXPECTED TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AT 17Z...A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS
& SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE KICT JURISDICTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEREBY
KEEPING WINDS <10KTS FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`LL BE EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER THRU SAT AFTERNOON & LIKELY BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011543
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE DENSE FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM
HAS DISSIPATED VERY CLOSE TO "SCHEDULE". FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE EXPECTED TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING KCNU THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT KICT AND KHUT ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. KCNU HAS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR EXPECTED
AT KICT/KHUT WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES








000
FXUS63 KICT 011543
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1043 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE DENSE FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM
HAS DISSIPATED VERY CLOSE TO "SCHEDULE". FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE EXPECTED TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING KCNU THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT KICT AND KHUT ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. KCNU HAS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR EXPECTED
AT KICT/KHUT WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES







000
FXUS63 KICT 011100
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING KCNU THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT KICT AND KHUT ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. KCNU HAS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR EXPECTED
AT KICT/KHUT WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011100
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING KCNU THIS MORNING WITH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT KICT AND KHUT ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. KCNU HAS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR EXPECTED
AT KICT/KHUT WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 010816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS
FROM FORMING. FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF ICT-SLN-HUT. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KICT 010816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS
FROM FORMING. FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF ICT-SLN-HUT. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 010441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW
NORMAL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
TOWARD DAY BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. (AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU)
THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HAVE KEPT
"PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM 85-90F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL &
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROF MOVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING
SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG
WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS
FROM FORMING. FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF ICT-SLN-HUT. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW
NORMAL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
TOWARD DAY BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. (AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU)
THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HAVE KEPT
"PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM 85-90F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL &
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROF MOVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING
SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG
WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS
FROM FORMING. FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF ICT-SLN-HUT. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 312340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW
NORMAL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
TOWARD DAY BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. (AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU)
THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HAVE KEPT
"PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM 85-90F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL &
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROF MOVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING
SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG
WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS FROM FORMING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 312340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW
NORMAL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
TOWARD DAY BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. (AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU)
THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HAVE KEPT
"PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM 85-90F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL &
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROF MOVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING
SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG
WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS FROM FORMING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 311943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TOWARD DAY
BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT. (AS
WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU) THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE HAVE KEPT "PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL DISSIPATE BY
10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 85-90F ARE STILL
ANTICOPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXPERIENCE
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY FOG RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE.
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CU BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES








000
FXUS63 KICT 311943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TOWARD DAY
BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT. (AS
WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU) THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE HAVE KEPT "PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL DISSIPATE BY
10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 85-90F ARE STILL
ANTICOPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXPERIENCE
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY FOG RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE.
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CU BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES







000
FXUS63 KICT 311720
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY FOG RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE.
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CU BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 311720
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY FOG RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE.
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CU BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 311124
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. KCNU CAN EXPECT LIFR/IFR THROUGH
13-14Z BEFORE VFR RETURNS. ELSEWHERE...TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 13Z BEFORE VFR RETURNS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5K FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEARING BY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 311124
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. KCNU CAN EXPECT LIFR/IFR THROUGH
13-14Z BEFORE VFR RETURNS. ELSEWHERE...TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 13Z BEFORE VFR RETURNS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5K FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CLEARING BY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 310723
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CNU WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...FOG CHANCES WILL BE A BIT MORE PATCHY AT ICT-HUT-SLN-
RSL WHERE DRIER AIR IS ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THINKING FOG
HERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...AS IS LIKELY THE CASE CURRENTLY
AT HUT. ALL-IN-ALL...WIDESPREAD IFR AND BELOW IS LIKELY AT
CNU...WITH PATCHY IFR AND BELOW AT ICT-HUT...AND PATCHY MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR AT SLN-RSL.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  30   0  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 310723
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CNU WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...FOG CHANCES WILL BE A BIT MORE PATCHY AT ICT-HUT-SLN-
RSL WHERE DRIER AIR IS ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THINKING FOG
HERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...AS IS LIKELY THE CASE CURRENTLY
AT HUT. ALL-IN-ALL...WIDESPREAD IFR AND BELOW IS LIKELY AT
CNU...WITH PATCHY IFR AND BELOW AT ICT-HUT...AND PATCHY MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR AT SLN-RSL.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  30   0  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 310455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY &
VERY COOL WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN
RUNNING ON TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AS CLOUDS CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE
THE FOG WILL BE GIVEN DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER SOUTH...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. BUT THINKING AT LEAST A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED
AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR
BORDER EARLY THU MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM BEING
REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED
~20% POPS TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE
UPPER DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AMPLE SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL
AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN
PARTS OF SD & NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY REACH CENTRAL KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CNU WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...FOG CHANCES WILL BE A BIT MORE PATCHY AT ICT-HUT-SLN-
RSL WHERE DRIER AIR IS ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THINKING FOG
HERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...AS IS LIKELY THE CASE CURRENTLY
AT HUT. ALL-IN-ALL...WIDESPREAD IFR AND BELOW IS LIKELY AT
CNU...WITH PATCHY IFR AND BELOW AT ICT-HUT...AND PATCHY MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR AT SLN-RSL.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  83  62  88 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          60  83  62  87 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  82  62  86 /  90  10   0  10
RUSSELL         59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      58  83  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  82  61  86 / 100  30   0  10
CHANUTE         62  83  61  86 /  30   0   0  10
IOLA            61  83  61  85 /  20   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  82  61  86 / 100  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 310455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY &
VERY COOL WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN
RUNNING ON TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AS CLOUDS CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE
THE FOG WILL BE GIVEN DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER SOUTH...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. BUT THINKING AT LEAST A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED
AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR
BORDER EARLY THU MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM BEING
REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED
~20% POPS TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE
UPPER DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AMPLE SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL
AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN
PARTS OF SD & NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY REACH CENTRAL KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CNU WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...FOG CHANCES WILL BE A BIT MORE PATCHY AT ICT-HUT-SLN-
RSL WHERE DRIER AIR IS ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THINKING FOG
HERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...AS IS LIKELY THE CASE CURRENTLY
AT HUT. ALL-IN-ALL...WIDESPREAD IFR AND BELOW IS LIKELY AT
CNU...WITH PATCHY IFR AND BELOW AT ICT-HUT...AND PATCHY MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR AT SLN-RSL.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  83  62  88 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          60  83  62  87 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  82  62  86 /  90  10   0  10
RUSSELL         59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      58  83  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  82  61  86 / 100  30   0  10
CHANUTE         62  83  61  86 /  30   0   0  10
IOLA            61  83  61  85 /  20   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  82  61  86 / 100  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 310259
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AS CLOUDS CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE
THE FOG WILL BE GIVEN DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER SOUTH...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. BUT THINKING AT LEAST A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED
AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY &
VERY COOL WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN
RUNNING ON TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR
BORDER EARLY THU MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM BEING
REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED
~20% POPS TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE
UPPER DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AMPLE SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL
AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN
PARTS OF SD & NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY REACH CENTRAL KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN ENDING AT ICT-CNU BY 00Z. WILL
SEE A NARROW/BRIEF RIBBON OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING HUT-ICT-CNU IN
WAKE OF THIS AREA OF RAIN...BUT THINKING THIS`LL SINK SOUTH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 01-03Z. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
FOR MAINLY HUT-ICT-CNU...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...DIURNAL
COOLING...MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW ONLY WENT 4SM
BR...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR OR BELOW VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  83  62  88 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          60  83  62  87 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  82  62  86 /  90  10   0  10
RUSSELL         59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      58  83  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  82  61  86 / 100  30   0  10
CHANUTE         62  83  61  86 /  30   0   0  10
IOLA            61  83  61  85 /  20   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  82  61  86 / 100  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 310259
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AS CLOUDS CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE
THE FOG WILL BE GIVEN DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER SOUTH...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. BUT THINKING AT LEAST A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED
AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY &
VERY COOL WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN
RUNNING ON TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR
BORDER EARLY THU MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM BEING
REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED
~20% POPS TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE
UPPER DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AMPLE SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL
AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN
PARTS OF SD & NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY REACH CENTRAL KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN ENDING AT ICT-CNU BY 00Z. WILL
SEE A NARROW/BRIEF RIBBON OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING HUT-ICT-CNU IN
WAKE OF THIS AREA OF RAIN...BUT THINKING THIS`LL SINK SOUTH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 01-03Z. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
FOR MAINLY HUT-ICT-CNU...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...DIURNAL
COOLING...MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW ONLY WENT 4SM
BR...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR OR BELOW VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  83  62  88 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          60  83  62  87 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  82  62  86 /  90  10   0  10
RUSSELL         59  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      58  83  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  82  61  86 / 100  30   0  10
CHANUTE         62  83  61  86 /  30   0   0  10
IOLA            61  83  61  85 /  20   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  82  61  86 / 100  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 302327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY &
VERY COOL WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN
RUNNING ON TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR
BORDER EARLY THU MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM BEING
REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED
~20% POPS TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE
UPPER DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AMPLE SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL
AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN
PARTS OF SD & NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY REACH CENTRAL KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN ENDING AT ICT-CNU BY 00Z. WILL
SEE A NARROW/BRIEF RIBBON OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING HUT-ICT-CNU IN
WAKE OF THIS AREA OF RAIN...BUT THINKING THIS`LL SINK SOUTH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 01-03Z. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
FOR MAINLY HUT-ICT-CNU...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...DIURNAL
COOLING...MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW ONLY WENT 4SM
BR...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR OR BELOW VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  83  62  88 /  50   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      60  84  63  88 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  83  62  87 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  50   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  82  62  86 /  80  20   0  10
RUSSELL         60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      59  83  63  88 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  61  86 /  80  40   0  10
CHANUTE         60  83  61  86 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            60  83  61  85 /  40  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  82  61  86 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 302327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY &
VERY COOL WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN
RUNNING ON TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR
BORDER EARLY THU MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER
WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM BEING
REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED
~20% POPS TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE
UPPER DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AMPLE SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL
AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN
PARTS OF SD & NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY REACH CENTRAL KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN ENDING AT ICT-CNU BY 00Z. WILL
SEE A NARROW/BRIEF RIBBON OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING HUT-ICT-CNU IN
WAKE OF THIS AREA OF RAIN...BUT THINKING THIS`LL SINK SOUTH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 01-03Z. LATER TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
FOR MAINLY HUT-ICT-CNU...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...DIURNAL
COOLING...MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW ONLY WENT 4SM
BR...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR OR BELOW VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  83  62  88 /  50   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      60  84  63  88 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  83  62  87 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  50   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  82  62  86 /  80  20   0  10
RUSSELL         60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      59  83  63  88 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  61  86 /  80  40   0  10
CHANUTE         60  83  61  86 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            60  83  61  85 /  40  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  82  61  86 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 302025
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY & VERY COOL
WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN RUNNING ON
TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR BORDER EARLY THU
MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD
WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD
LOWS FROM BEING REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED ~20% POPS
TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE UPPER
DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AMPLE
SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-LEVEL TROF
MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN PARTS OF SD &
NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY REACH CENTRAL
KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO
SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA
TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING SLOW
END TO PRECIPITATION. WHILE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION SO FAR...BUT ITS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE RELATIVE TO CURRENT CEILINGS/CLOUDS. THAT
SAID...DO EXPECT CONTINUED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WHERE
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR. WITH CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG
WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  83  62  88 /  50   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      60  84  63  88 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  83  62  87 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  50   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  82  62  86 /  80  20   0  10
RUSSELL         60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      59  83  63  88 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  61  86 /  80  40   0  10
CHANUTE         60  83  61  86 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            60  83  61  85 /  40  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  82  61  86 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES







000
FXUS63 KICT 302025
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT CURVED FROM FAR WEST TX ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK TO THE AR/MO BORDER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINY & VERY COOL
WEATHER FOR KICT COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN RUNNING ON
TREAD MILLS WITH READINGS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TONIGHT:
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN "SYNOPSIS" WILL GET FORCED SE TOWARD
THE RED RIVER (NO DOUBT AS A COLD FRONT) AS A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...REACHING THE OK/AR BORDER EARLY THU
MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD
WILL VERY SLOWLY END IN A NW-SE MANNER WITH LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHEAST KS BY DAYBREAK. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT RECORD
LOWS FROM BEING REALIZED IN ALL AREAS.

THU:
SOME "WRAP-AROUND" LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST KS & AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED ~20% POPS
TO THESE AREAS. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS WOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
EXCELLENT WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A STRONG...MASSIVE UPPER
DECK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AMPLE
SUN WOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH 85-90F ACROSS ALL AREAS FRI & SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL NEXT WED WHEN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE. A WEAK-MODERATE MID-LEVEL TROF
MOVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH EASTERN PARTS OF SD &
NEBRASKA ON WED. THE ATTENDANT SE-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY REACH CENTRAL
KS LATE WED AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DO
SO WELL TO THE N & NE OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD FROM THE DAKOTAS & NEBRASKA
TO ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING SLOW
END TO PRECIPITATION. WHILE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION SO FAR...BUT ITS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE RELATIVE TO CURRENT CEILINGS/CLOUDS. THAT
SAID...DO EXPECT CONTINUED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WHERE
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR. WITH CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG
WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

RECORD COOLEST HIGHS FOR TODAY (JUL 30TH):

CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971
WICHITA: 73 IN 1903
RUSSELL: 77 IN 1990
SALINA:  76 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  83  62  88 /  50   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      60  84  63  88 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  83  62  87 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        60  83  62  85 /  50   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  82  62  86 /  80  20   0  10
RUSSELL         60  84  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      59  83  63  88 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          59  87  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  62  88 /  20   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  61  86 /  80  40   0  10
CHANUTE         60  83  61  86 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            60  83  61  85 /  40  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  82  61  86 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES








000
FXUS63 KICT 301740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING SLOW
END TO PRECIPITATION. WHILE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION SO FAR...BUT ITS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE RELATIVE TO CURRENT CEILINGS/CLOUDS. THAT
SAID...DO EXPECT CONTINUED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WHERE
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR. WITH CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG
WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  90  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  80  20   0   0
NEWTON          75  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        73  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  62  81  63 /  90  50  20   0
RUSSELL         79  60  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          79  60  88  64 /  30  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  62  81  62 /  90  60  20   0
CHANUTE         73  62  82  62 /  50  30  10   0
IOLA            74  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    73  62  81  62 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 301740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING SLOW
END TO PRECIPITATION. WHILE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION SO FAR...BUT ITS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE RELATIVE TO CURRENT CEILINGS/CLOUDS. THAT
SAID...DO EXPECT CONTINUED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WHERE
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR. WITH CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG
WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  90  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  80  20   0   0
NEWTON          75  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        73  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  62  81  63 /  90  50  20   0
RUSSELL         79  60  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          79  60  88  64 /  30  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  62  81  62 /  90  60  20   0
CHANUTE         73  62  82  62 /  50  30  10   0
IOLA            74  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    73  62  81  62 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 301133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF KICT...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY BETWEEN 16-22Z BEFORE THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AFTER
05-08Z GIVEN CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. TRENDED VISIBILITIES DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  80  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  70  20   0   0
NEWTON          74  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        75  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  62  81  63 /  90  40  20   0
RUSSELL         75  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          80  60  88  64 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  60  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  81  62 /  60  50  20   0
CHANUTE         76  62  82  62 /  50  20  10   0
IOLA            76  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  62  81  62 /  50  40  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF KICT...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY BETWEEN 16-22Z BEFORE THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AFTER
05-08Z GIVEN CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. TRENDED VISIBILITIES DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  80  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  70  20   0   0
NEWTON          74  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        75  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  62  81  63 /  90  40  20   0
RUSSELL         75  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          80  60  88  64 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  60  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  81  62 /  60  50  20   0
CHANUTE         76  62  82  62 /  50  20  10   0
IOLA            76  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  62  81  62 /  50  40  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 300802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.


UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  80  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  70  20   0   0
NEWTON          74  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        75  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  62  81  63 /  90  40  20   0
RUSSELL         75  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          80  60  88  64 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  60  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  81  62 /  60  50  20   0
CHANUTE         76  62  82  62 /  50  20  10   0
IOLA            76  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  62  81  62 /  50  40  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 300802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME ...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS. ACTUALLY SEEING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF SW KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FOR THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR GENERALLY
FROM KDDC TO JUST NORTH OF KOKC. STILL THINK AREAS SW OF KICT WILL
GET SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND
SUMNER COUNTIES POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SW OF A KINGMAN TO
WELLINGTON TO WINFIELD LINE. THINK AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL STILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY...BUT LESSOR AMOUNTS THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO TOWARDS SALINA AND EMPORIA.

NOT ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVES
IN...BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER MESOSCALE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ARE 3-4
INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS STARTING OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...BUT MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS. WILL COVER THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS MAY ONLY
MOVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE REMAINING
STEADY DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE INTO OK FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE RAINFALL LINGER
OVER SOUTHERN KS AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THU.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ON THU AS THE NW
FLOW REMAINS ON CONTROL WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF DO SHOW SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR THU AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY OR EARLY
AUG. SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
FOR SAT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE DIURNAL STORM CHANCE FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.


UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  61  82  63 /  80  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  60  85  63 /  70  20   0   0
NEWTON          74  60  83  63 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        75  60  83  62 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  62  81  63 /  90  40  20   0
RUSSELL         75  60  85  63 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  59  83  63 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          80  60  88  64 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       76  60  85  63 /  60  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  81  62 /  60  50  20   0
CHANUTE         76  62  82  62 /  50  20  10   0
IOLA            76  62  82  62 /  40  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  62  81  62 /  50  40  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 300455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN
SEGMENT OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING E & WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WELL TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & A LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 80S WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) MODERATE & PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
2) RECORD COOLEST HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN WICHITA TOMORROW.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WOULD INDUCE WEAK LOWER-DECK FRONTOGENESIS FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO WESTERN OK. THE RESULTING 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK BORDER IS STRONG & WITH A COMPACT REGION OF
INCREASING LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE PANHANDLES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CERTAIN. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (ESPECIALLY OVER KICT COUNTRY). AS
SUCH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL KS WOULD BE
ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
WITH 3-HOURLY VALUES BETWEEN 3.0 & 3.5 INCHES. AS SUCH CHECKED SWING ON
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WITH THE WEAK E/W ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SINKING DUE SOUTH TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WOULD LIKEWISE GET FORCED SOUTH OF
THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOMORROW EVENING. WITH "HIGH" TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

THU-FRI:
VERY COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 7-10F BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THU & THU NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS KS. A WARMUP BEGINS ON
FRI AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF SETTLES SE ACROSS KS THEREBY INDUCING MODEST
SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEXT WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS SLOWLY E FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

MON-TUE:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS LATE MON NIGHT & TUE
AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM THE CO/WY BORDER
TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROFFING
WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH HIGHS ~90F MON & TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES:

JULY 30TH:

WICHITA: 73 IN 1971
CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  70  59  82 /  20  80  30   0
HUTCHINSON      64  71  59  82 /  20  80  20   0
NEWTON          63  70  59  82 /  20  60  20   0
ELDORADO        63  70  58  82 /  20  70  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  70  60  82 /  30  90  30  10
RUSSELL         63  78  62  83 /  20  50  10   0
GREAT BEND      63  74  60  82 /  20  70  10   0
SALINA          64  79  61  84 /  20  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       63  73  60  83 /  20  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  71  60  82 /  30  50  40  10
CHANUTE         63  74  60  83 /  20  50  20   0
IOLA            62  76  60  83 /  30  40  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  72  60  83 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 300455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN
SEGMENT OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING E & WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WELL TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & A LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 80S WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) MODERATE & PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
2) RECORD COOLEST HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN WICHITA TOMORROW.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WOULD INDUCE WEAK LOWER-DECK FRONTOGENESIS FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO WESTERN OK. THE RESULTING 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK BORDER IS STRONG & WITH A COMPACT REGION OF
INCREASING LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE PANHANDLES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CERTAIN. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (ESPECIALLY OVER KICT COUNTRY). AS
SUCH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL KS WOULD BE
ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
WITH 3-HOURLY VALUES BETWEEN 3.0 & 3.5 INCHES. AS SUCH CHECKED SWING ON
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WITH THE WEAK E/W ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SINKING DUE SOUTH TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WOULD LIKEWISE GET FORCED SOUTH OF
THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOMORROW EVENING. WITH "HIGH" TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

THU-FRI:
VERY COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 7-10F BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THU & THU NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS KS. A WARMUP BEGINS ON
FRI AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF SETTLES SE ACROSS KS THEREBY INDUCING MODEST
SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEXT WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS SLOWLY E FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

MON-TUE:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS LATE MON NIGHT & TUE
AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM THE CO/WY BORDER
TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROFFING
WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH HIGHS ~90F MON & TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES:

JULY 30TH:

WICHITA: 73 IN 1971
CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  70  59  82 /  20  80  30   0
HUTCHINSON      64  71  59  82 /  20  80  20   0
NEWTON          63  70  59  82 /  20  60  20   0
ELDORADO        63  70  58  82 /  20  70  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  70  60  82 /  30  90  30  10
RUSSELL         63  78  62  83 /  20  50  10   0
GREAT BEND      63  74  60  82 /  20  70  10   0
SALINA          64  79  61  84 /  20  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       63  73  60  83 /  20  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  71  60  82 /  30  50  40  10
CHANUTE         63  74  60  83 /  20  50  20   0
IOLA            62  76  60  83 /  30  40  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  72  60  83 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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