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000
FXUS63 KICT 282351
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV TRACKING OVER EXTREME SE
KS/SW MO WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC IMPULSE IS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. AT THE SURFACE...OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER SE KS SHORTLY AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND THAT THERE MAYBE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA MAYBE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OBVIOUSLY WITH GROUNDS VERY SATURATED...FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE GFS GETTING SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING
AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRI
ALONG AND SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH NEEDED
DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY SUN AFTERNOON...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER
RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THEN DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. WHILE SOME STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THE BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THEY GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS. CONVECTION DURING THE DAY IS POSSIBLE...BUT
HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE DAY TIME FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  78  60  72 /  50  50  60  20
HUTCHINSON      64  78  58  70 /  50  40  50  20
NEWTON          64  76  58  70 /  50  40  60  20
ELDORADO        66  77  60  72 /  60  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  79  61  73 /  50  50  60  30
RUSSELL         60  78  54  69 /  60  30  40  10
GREAT BEND      61  78  55  69 /  60  30  40  10
SALINA          64  78  57  70 /  50  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       63  77  57  70 /  50  40  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  77  63  74 /  50  60  70  40
CHANUTE         67  77  63  73 /  50  60  70  30
IOLA            66  77  62  73 /  50  60  70  30
PARSONS-KPPF    67  77  63  73 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV TRACKING OVER EXTREME SE
KS/SW MO WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC IMPULSE IS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. AT THE SURFACE...OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER SE KS SHORTLY AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND THAT THERE MAYBE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA MAYBE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OBVIOUSLY WITH GROUNDS VERY SATURATED...FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE GFS GETTING SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING
AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRI
ALONG AND SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH NEEDED
DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY SUN AFTERNOON...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER
RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THEN DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. WHILE SOME STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THE BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THEY GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  78  61  70 /  50  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      64  78  59  69 /  50  60  50  20
NEWTON          64  76  59  68 /  50  60  60  20
ELDORADO        66  77  61  70 /  60  60  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  79  62  71 /  50  60  60  30
RUSSELL         60  78  55  69 /  60  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      61  78  56  69 /  60  50  40  10
SALINA          64  78  58  69 /  50  50  50  10
MCPHERSON       63  77  58  68 /  50  60  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  64  72 /  50  60  70  40
CHANUTE         67  78  64  72 /  50  60  70  40
IOLA            66  78  63  71 /  50  60  70  40
PARSONS-KPPF    67  78  64  72 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV TRACKING OVER EXTREME SE
KS/SW MO WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC IMPULSE IS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. AT THE SURFACE...OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER SE KS SHORTLY AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND THAT THERE MAYBE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA MAYBE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OBVIOUSLY WITH GROUNDS VERY SATURATED...FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE GFS GETTING SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING
AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRI
ALONG AND SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH NEEDED
DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY SUN AFTERNOON...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER
RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THEN DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. WHILE SOME STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THE BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THEY GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  78  61  70 /  50  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      64  78  59  69 /  50  60  50  20
NEWTON          64  76  59  68 /  50  60  60  20
ELDORADO        66  77  61  70 /  60  60  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  79  62  71 /  50  60  60  30
RUSSELL         60  78  55  69 /  60  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      61  78  56  69 /  60  50  40  10
SALINA          64  78  58  69 /  50  50  50  10
MCPHERSON       63  77  58  68 /  50  60  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  64  72 /  50  60  70  40
CHANUTE         67  78  64  72 /  50  60  70  40
IOLA            66  78  63  71 /  50  60  70  40
PARSONS-KPPF    67  78  64  72 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281636
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS RESULTANTLY
LOWER. APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER FLOW/WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND WEAK MODEL CONSENSUS SHUTS DOWN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. SO ANTICIPATING A LULL THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AFFECTING ALL SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
-HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281636
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS RESULTANTLY
LOWER. APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER FLOW/WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND WEAK MODEL CONSENSUS SHUTS DOWN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. SO ANTICIPATING A LULL THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AFFECTING ALL SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
-HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS RESULTANTLY
LOWER. APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER FLOW/WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND WEAK MODEL CONSUS SHUTS DOWN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. SO ANTICIPATING A LULL THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AFFECTING ALL SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  80  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  90  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  90  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  90  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS RESULTANTLY
LOWER. APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER FLOW/WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND WEAK MODEL CONSUS SHUTS DOWN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. SO ANTICIPATING A LULL THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AFFECTING ALL SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  80  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  90  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  90  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  90  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE CONVECTION.
STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH REGENERATION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU GETTING IT TOWARDS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT LEAST OFF AND ON.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE
DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  79  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  70  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  60  50  50  60
ELDORADO        64  79  66  78 /  60  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  78  67  78 /  60  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      62  78  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
SALINA          64  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70
CHANUTE         64  79  67  78 /  40  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  40  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE CONVECTION.
STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH REGENERATION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU GETTING IT TOWARDS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT LEAST OFF AND ON.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE
DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  79  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  70  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  60  50  50  60
ELDORADO        64  79  66  78 /  60  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  78  67  78 /  60  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      62  78  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
SALINA          64  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70
CHANUTE         64  79  67  78 /  40  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  40  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT ONE MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHICH IS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A MCV
WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATT,KS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND MCV MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD
SPARK OFF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT ONE MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHICH IS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A MCV
WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATT,KS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND MCV MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD
SPARK OFF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVE...APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE...AND MODEST 850
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE INFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT CNU AFTER 08Z.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES PUSH EAST OFF OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVE...APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE...AND MODEST 850
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE INFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT CNU AFTER 08Z.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES PUSH EAST OFF OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 270421
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVE...APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE...AND MODEST 850
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE INFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT CNU AFTER 08Z.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES PUSH EAST OFF OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  50  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  60  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  50  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  50  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  60  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  60  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 262039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KICT
AND KCNU TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KICT
AND KCNU TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  20  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  20  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KICT
AND KCNU TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  20  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  20  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261601
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261601
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 10-12 UTC. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN AREAS OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO LIKELY SET OFF AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY TUES PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 10-12 UTC. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN AREAS OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO LIKELY SET OFF AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY TUES PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260400
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA AND SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KICT. THE RAP SHOWED
THIS WELL IN LATEST RUNS. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION JUST AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE RETURN MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THIRD AREA IS EXPECTED ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
PLAINS PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY MIGRATE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPPING POTENTIAL...CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE IMPINGING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES/HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY DAY WITH A COUPLE OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PINNACLE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY A DRY PERIOD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 10-12 UTC. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN AREAS OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO LIKELY SET OFF AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY TUES PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  79  61  82 /  60  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      59  79  60  82 /  70  20  30  30
NEWTON          60  78  60  80 /  70  20  30  30
ELDORADO        60  79  61  82 /  60  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  80  61  82 /  60  20  40  30
RUSSELL         57  78  58  82 /  40  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      57  78  58  81 /  50  10  20  30
SALINA          60  80  59  82 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       60  79  59  81 /  70  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30
CHANUTE         62  79  62  82 /  60  20  40  30
IOLA            62  79  62  81 /  60  20  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260400
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA AND SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KICT. THE RAP SHOWED
THIS WELL IN LATEST RUNS. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION JUST AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE RETURN MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THIRD AREA IS EXPECTED ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
PLAINS PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY MIGRATE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPPING POTENTIAL...CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE IMPINGING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES/HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY DAY WITH A COUPLE OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PINNACLE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY A DRY PERIOD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 10-12 UTC. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN AREAS OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO LIKELY SET OFF AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY TUES PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  79  61  82 /  60  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      59  79  60  82 /  70  20  30  30
NEWTON          60  78  60  80 /  70  20  30  30
ELDORADO        60  79  61  82 /  60  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  80  61  82 /  60  20  40  30
RUSSELL         57  78  58  82 /  40  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      57  78  58  81 /  50  10  20  30
SALINA          60  80  59  82 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       60  79  59  81 /  70  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30
CHANUTE         62  79  62  82 /  60  20  40  30
IOLA            62  79  62  81 /  60  20  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260400
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA AND SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KICT. THE RAP SHOWED
THIS WELL IN LATEST RUNS. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION JUST AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE RETURN MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THIRD AREA IS EXPECTED ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
PLAINS PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY MIGRATE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPPING POTENTIAL...CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE IMPINGING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES/HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY DAY WITH A COUPLE OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PINNACLE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY A DRY PERIOD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 10-12 UTC. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN AREAS OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO LIKELY SET OFF AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY TUES PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  79  61  82 /  60  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      59  79  60  82 /  70  20  30  30
NEWTON          60  78  60  80 /  70  20  30  30
ELDORADO        60  79  61  82 /  60  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  80  61  82 /  60  20  40  30
RUSSELL         57  78  58  82 /  40  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      57  78  58  81 /  50  10  20  30
SALINA          60  80  59  82 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       60  79  59  81 /  70  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30
CHANUTE         62  79  62  82 /  60  20  40  30
IOLA            62  79  62  81 /  60  20  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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