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000
FXUS63 KICT 140916
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED BACKED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED WHICH
HAS MAINTAINED DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS SO FAR.
WHILE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROF HAS MANIFEST THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CIGS...THE
WINDOW TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO PROMOTE
THE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NARROWING IN SPACE AND
TIME. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE MODEST MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE TURNPIKE THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY AND MILDER WEATHER
ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...
THOUGH THE DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION TO
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS WILL FEATURE
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROFS/FRONTS...A GENERAL WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF
RATHER MILD/ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WITH THURSDAY
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THESE PERIODS. THE LATEST
TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WOULD SUPPORT RECORD MAXS FOR THE 18TH AT
BOTH RUSSELL AND WICHITA. AN UPPER TROF AND AIRMASS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SO
ONLY EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING WITH MAXS STILL MUCH ABOVE CLIMO FOR
FRIDAY. LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY STARTED TO RAMP UP AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR THE LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN CIGS STARTING TO LOWER OVER EASTERN OK AND FAR SE KS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT IFR CIGS OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LAYERS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 14-15Z.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS BY THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE FIRE
DANGER INTO AT LEAST THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  34  59  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      56  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          55  33  57  38 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  34  58  38 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  35  61  38 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         54  31  57  36 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      55  32  58  37 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          55  32  57  37 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       55  32  57  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  34  59  38 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         53  32  57  37 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            52  31  56  37 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    53  34  58  37 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 140537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE LOW LAYERS TOO
DRY FOR FOG EARLY SUN MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND SHIFTS TO SE KS
AFTER 09Z...SO PRECIP ALSO DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE KS AFTER 09Z...SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT HELPING WITH OUR CONFIDENCE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY STARTED TO RAMP UP AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR THE LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN CIGS STARTING TO LOWER OVER EASTERN OK AND FAR SE KS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT IFR CIGS OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LAYERS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 14-15Z.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          28  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 140537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE LOW LAYERS TOO
DRY FOR FOG EARLY SUN MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND SHIFTS TO SE KS
AFTER 09Z...SO PRECIP ALSO DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE KS AFTER 09Z...SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT HELPING WITH OUR CONFIDENCE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY STARTED TO RAMP UP AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR THE LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN CIGS STARTING TO LOWER OVER EASTERN OK AND FAR SE KS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT IFR CIGS OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LAYERS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 14-15Z.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          28  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 140537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE LOW LAYERS TOO
DRY FOR FOG EARLY SUN MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND SHIFTS TO SE KS
AFTER 09Z...SO PRECIP ALSO DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE KS AFTER 09Z...SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT HELPING WITH OUR CONFIDENCE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY STARTED TO RAMP UP AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR THE LIFT HAS
RESULTED IN CIGS STARTING TO LOWER OVER EASTERN OK AND FAR SE KS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 09-10Z FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT IFR CIGS OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO THE LOW LAYERS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 14-15Z.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          28  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 140329
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
929 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE LOW LAYERS TOO
DRY FOR FOG EARLY SUN MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND SHIFTS TO SE KS
AFTER 09Z...SO PRECIP ALSO DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE KS AFTER 09Z...SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
ARE NOT HELPING WITH OUR CONFIDENCE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOST OF MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. TO GET THE
BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH CIGS IN THE 1,000-2,000FT LEVEL WITH
KCNU SEEING THESE CEILINGS THE LONGEST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. WHILE THE LIFT IS GOOD...IT WILL HAVE TO
BATTLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS OVER SE KS STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BECAUSE WITH TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH PRECIP TO CAUSE
ISSUES.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          28  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 140013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOST OF MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. TO GET THE
BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH CIGS IN THE 1,000-2,000FT LEVEL WITH
KCNU SEEING THESE CEILINGS THE LONGEST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. WHILE THE LIFT IS GOOD...IT WILL HAVE TO
BATTLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS OVER SE KS STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BECAUSE WITH TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH PRECIP TO CAUSE
ISSUES.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 140013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOST OF MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. TO GET THE
BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH CIGS IN THE 1,000-2,000FT LEVEL WITH
KCNU SEEING THESE CEILINGS THE LONGEST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. WHILE THE LIFT IS GOOD...IT WILL HAVE TO
BATTLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS OVER SE KS STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BECAUSE WITH TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH PRECIP TO CAUSE
ISSUES.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 140013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOST OF MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. TO GET THE
BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH CIGS IN THE 1,000-2,000FT LEVEL WITH
KCNU SEEING THESE CEILINGS THE LONGEST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. WHILE THE LIFT IS GOOD...IT WILL HAVE TO
BATTLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS OVER SE KS STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BECAUSE WITH TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH PRECIP TO CAUSE
ISSUES.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 132037
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

E-SE 13-17KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS ALL AREAS TIL ~14/00Z WITH THE
SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ENCOUNTERED AT KGBD & KRSL WHERE AN OCNL 22KT
GUST MAY OCR. ALL TERMINALS WL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR ALL...OF THE
13/18Z TAF CYCLE ALTHO SUCCESSORS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCT STRATUS
~1,000FT ACRS SC KS ~14/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 132037
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

E-SE 13-17KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS ALL AREAS TIL ~14/00Z WITH THE
SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ENCOUNTERED AT KGBD & KRSL WHERE AN OCNL 22KT
GUST MAY OCR. ALL TERMINALS WL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR ALL...OF THE
13/18Z TAF CYCLE ALTHO SUCCESSORS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCT STRATUS
~1,000FT ACRS SC KS ~14/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 132037
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

E-SE 13-17KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS ALL AREAS TIL ~14/00Z WITH THE
SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ENCOUNTERED AT KGBD & KRSL WHERE AN OCNL 22KT
GUST MAY OCR. ALL TERMINALS WL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR ALL...OF THE
13/18Z TAF CYCLE ALTHO SUCCESSORS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCT STRATUS
~1,000FT ACRS SC KS ~14/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 131753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

E-SE 13-17KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS ALL AREAS TIL ~14/00Z WITH THE
SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ENCOUNTERED AT KGBD & KRSL WHERE AN OCNL 22KT
GUST MAY OCR. ALL TERMINALS WL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR ALL...OF THE
13/18Z TAF CYCLE ALTHO SUCCESSORS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCT STRATUS
~1,000FT ACRS SC KS ~14/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 131753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

E-SE 13-17KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS ALL AREAS TIL ~14/00Z WITH THE
SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ENCOUNTERED AT KGBD & KRSL WHERE AN OCNL 22KT
GUST MAY OCR. ALL TERMINALS WL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR ALL...OF THE
13/18Z TAF CYCLE ALTHO SUCCESSORS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCT STRATUS
~1,000FT ACRS SC KS ~14/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 131753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

E-SE 13-17KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACRS ALL AREAS TIL ~14/00Z WITH THE
SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ENCOUNTERED AT KGBD & KRSL WHERE AN OCNL 22KT
GUST MAY OCR. ALL TERMINALS WL MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR ALL...OF THE
13/18Z TAF CYCLE ALTHO SUCCESSORS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR SCT STRATUS
~1,000FT ACRS SC KS ~14/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 131200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...PRIMARILY AT KRSL WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTENING BELOW 1000FT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE CEILINGS THAT LOW THIS MORNING BUT DID INCLUDE MENTIONS
OF SCATTER 900-1000FT CLOUDS TO HINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS
EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED
THINGS TOWARDS THE MVFR/IFR ROUTE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT TAFS TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 131200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...PRIMARILY AT KRSL WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTENING BELOW 1000FT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE CEILINGS THAT LOW THIS MORNING BUT DID INCLUDE MENTIONS
OF SCATTER 900-1000FT CLOUDS TO HINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS
EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED
THINGS TOWARDS THE MVFR/IFR ROUTE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT TAFS TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 131200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...PRIMARILY AT KRSL WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTENING BELOW 1000FT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE CEILINGS THAT LOW THIS MORNING BUT DID INCLUDE MENTIONS
OF SCATTER 900-1000FT CLOUDS TO HINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS
EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED
THINGS TOWARDS THE MVFR/IFR ROUTE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT TAFS TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 130859
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS
WHILE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALTHOUGH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF MVFR WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15-18 KNOT
RANGE TODAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  30 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 130524
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS
WHILE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALTHOUGH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF MVFR WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15-18 KNOT
RANGE TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    21  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      20  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          19  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        20  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         20  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          19  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       20  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     19  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         18  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            16  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    19  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 130524
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS
WHILE REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALTHOUGH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF MVFR WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15-18 KNOT
RANGE TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    21  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      20  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          19  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        20  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         20  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          19  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       20  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     19  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         18  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            16  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    19  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 122352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A TRANSIENT PERIOD
OF LIGHT FZDZ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS EARLY IN
THE MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
CENTRAL KS TAFS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      17  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          16  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        17  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         17  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          16  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       17  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     16  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         15  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            13  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    16  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 122352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A TRANSIENT PERIOD
OF LIGHT FZDZ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS EARLY IN
THE MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
CENTRAL KS TAFS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      17  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          16  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        17  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         17  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          16  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       17  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     16  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         15  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            13  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    16  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 122352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A TRANSIENT PERIOD
OF LIGHT FZDZ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS EARLY IN
THE MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
CENTRAL KS TAFS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      17  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          16  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        17  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         17  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          16  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       17  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     16  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         15  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            13  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    16  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 122100
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CIGS FROM ~800-1500FT WILL COVER MOST AREAS TIL ~21Z. (KCNU IS THE
EXCEPTION WHERE SCT DECKS ~1500FT WOULD PREVAIL.) N/NE WINDS 13-17
KT WL PREVAIL THRUT THE AFTN BUT WUD DMNSH TO ~9KTS/10MPH ~13/00Z
AS STRONG(!) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT AT 18Z WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER...SPREADS S/SE ACRS THE DAKOTAS &
MN LATE TNGT. THIS WOULD INDUCE N/NE WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH TO SHIFT TO
E & SE ~9KTS THIS EVE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      17  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          16  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        17  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         17  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          16  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       17  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     16  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         15  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            13  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    16  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 122005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CIGS FROM ~800-1500FT WILL COVER MOST AREAS TIL ~21Z. (KCNU IS THE
EXCEPTION WHERE SCT DECKS ~1500FT WOULD PREVAIL.) N/NE WINDS 13-17
KT WL PREVAIL THRUT THE AFTN BUT WUD DMNSH TO ~9KTS/10MPH ~13/00Z
AS STRONG(!) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT AT 18Z WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER...SPREADS S/SE ACRS THE DAKOTAS &
MN LATE TNGT. THIS WOULD INDUCE N/NE WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH TO SHIFT TO
E & SE ~9KTS THIS EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      17  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          16  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        17  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         17  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          16  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       17  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     16  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         15  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            13  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    16  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 121756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CIGS FROM ~800-1500FT WILL COVER MOST AREAS TIL ~21Z. (KCNU IS THE
EXCEPTION WHERE SCT DECKS ~1500FT WOULD PREVAIL.) N/NE WINDS 13-17
KT WL PREVAIL THRUT THE AFTN BUT WUD DMNSH TO ~9KTS/10MPH ~13/00Z
AS STRONG(!) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT AT 18Z WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER...SPREADS S/SE ACRS THE DAKOTAS &
MN LATE TNGT. THIS WOULD INDUCE N/NE WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH TO SHIFT TO
E & SE ~9KTS THIS EVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  27 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 121756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CIGS FROM ~800-1500FT WILL COVER MOST AREAS TIL ~21Z. (KCNU IS THE
EXCEPTION WHERE SCT DECKS ~1500FT WOULD PREVAIL.) N/NE WINDS 13-17
KT WL PREVAIL THRUT THE AFTN BUT WUD DMNSH TO ~9KTS/10MPH ~13/00Z
AS STRONG(!) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT AT 18Z WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER...SPREADS S/SE ACRS THE DAKOTAS &
MN LATE TNGT. THIS WOULD INDUCE N/NE WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH TO SHIFT TO
E & SE ~9KTS THIS EVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  27 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 121756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CIGS FROM ~800-1500FT WILL COVER MOST AREAS TIL ~21Z. (KCNU IS THE
EXCEPTION WHERE SCT DECKS ~1500FT WOULD PREVAIL.) N/NE WINDS 13-17
KT WL PREVAIL THRUT THE AFTN BUT WUD DMNSH TO ~9KTS/10MPH ~13/00Z
AS STRONG(!) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT AT 18Z WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER...SPREADS S/SE ACRS THE DAKOTAS &
MN LATE TNGT. THIS WOULD INDUCE N/NE WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH TO SHIFT TO
E & SE ~9KTS THIS EVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  27 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 121130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVECT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE CONTINUED THE
OVERALL TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS IN REGARDS TO BRINGING IN MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRSL/KSLN...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AT KGBD. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BREEZY
AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
MENTIONS OF GUSTY WINDS AT TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
NOW...WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL DEVELOP.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  27 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 121130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVECT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE CONTINUED THE
OVERALL TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS IN REGARDS TO BRINGING IN MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRSL/KSLN...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AT KGBD. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BREEZY
AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
MENTIONS OF GUSTY WINDS AT TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
NOW...WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL DEVELOP.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  27 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 120934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS NOW FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AT KRSL/KSLN WITH A
CLOSE CALL AT KGBD/KHUT. NEWER RUC/NAM RUNS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEAST KS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL TRIM BACK SPATIALLY AND
EXTEND TEMPORALLY THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AT KRSL AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT TOO LOW TO JUMP ON IT THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  36  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 120543
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS NOW FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AT KRSL/KSLN WITH A
CLOSE CALL AT KGBD/KHUT. NEWER RUC/NAM RUNS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEAST KS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL TRIM BACK SPATIALLY AND
EXTEND TEMPORALLY THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AT KRSL AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT TOO LOW TO JUMP ON IT THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         30  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          29  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            28  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    26  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 120543
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS NOW FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AT KRSL/KSLN WITH A
CLOSE CALL AT KGBD/KHUT. NEWER RUC/NAM RUNS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEAST KS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL TRIM BACK SPATIALLY AND
EXTEND TEMPORALLY THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AT KRSL AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT TOO LOW TO JUMP ON IT THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         30  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          29  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            28  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    26  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 120543
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS NOW FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AT KRSL/KSLN WITH A
CLOSE CALL AT KGBD/KHUT. NEWER RUC/NAM RUNS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEAST KS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL TRIM BACK SPATIALLY AND
EXTEND TEMPORALLY THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AT KRSL AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT TOO LOW TO JUMP ON IT THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         30  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          29  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            28  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    26  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 112333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT AT
KRSL/KSLN AND KGBD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS AND NOT AS STRONG A
SIGNAL AS LAST NIGHT. HAVE OPTED GO SCT015 FOR NOW. OF THE THREE
SITES...KRSL PROBABLY HAS BEST CHANCE OF GOING BROKEN DUE TO
INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 112333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT AT
KRSL/KSLN AND KGBD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS AND NOT AS STRONG A
SIGNAL AS LAST NIGHT. HAVE OPTED GO SCT015 FOR NOW. OF THE THREE
SITES...KRSL PROBABLY HAS BEST CHANCE OF GOING BROKEN DUE TO
INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 112333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT AT
KRSL/KSLN AND KGBD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS AND NOT AS STRONG A
SIGNAL AS LAST NIGHT. HAVE OPTED GO SCT015 FOR NOW. OF THE THREE
SITES...KRSL PROBABLY HAS BEST CHANCE OF GOING BROKEN DUE TO
INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 112040
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.

IFR CLOUDS PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MADE IT DOWN TO AT LEAST
I-70 BY SUNRISE. THESE LOWER CIGS HAVE STARTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z FOR KRSL-KSLN-KGBD BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY LATE
FRI MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 112040
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.

IFR CLOUDS PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MADE IT DOWN TO AT LEAST
I-70 BY SUNRISE. THESE LOWER CIGS HAVE STARTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z FOR KRSL-KSLN-KGBD BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY LATE
FRI MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 112040
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.

IFR CLOUDS PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MADE IT DOWN TO AT LEAST
I-70 BY SUNRISE. THESE LOWER CIGS HAVE STARTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z FOR KRSL-KSLN-KGBD BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY LATE
FRI MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 111749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.

IFR CLOUDS PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MADE IT DOWN TO AT LEAST
I-70 BY SUNRISE. THESE LOWER CIGS HAVE STARTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z FOR KRSL-KSLN-KGBD BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY LATE
FRI MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 111749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.

IFR CLOUDS PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MADE IT DOWN TO AT LEAST
I-70 BY SUNRISE. THESE LOWER CIGS HAVE STARTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z FOR KRSL-KSLN-KGBD BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY LATE
FRI MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 111749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.

IFR CLOUDS PUSHED SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MADE IT DOWN TO AT LEAST
I-70 BY SUNRISE. THESE LOWER CIGS HAVE STARTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACH. SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z FOR KRSL-KSLN-KGBD BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY LATE
FRI MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 111140
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING. TERMINALS AFFECTED WILL PRIMARILY BE
SLN...RSL AND GBD...POSSIBLY HUT...WITH ICT AND CNU LIKELY THE
VERY SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE LOW CIGS. CONSEQUENTLY...TAF
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST FOR ICT-CNU...AND ONLY WENT WITH SCT DECKS AT
THIS POINT. CIGS WILL BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 111140
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING. TERMINALS AFFECTED WILL PRIMARILY BE
SLN...RSL AND GBD...POSSIBLY HUT...WITH ICT AND CNU LIKELY THE
VERY SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE LOW CIGS. CONSEQUENTLY...TAF
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST FOR ICT-CNU...AND ONLY WENT WITH SCT DECKS AT
THIS POINT. CIGS WILL BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 111140
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW
MO INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH
THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLD AIR FOR FRI AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD
AIR WOULD NOT MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL
FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION
DOES INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON
WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS
PRECIP CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE. THE SHALLOW SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF
THE COLD LOW LEVELS... TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING. TERMINALS AFFECTED WILL PRIMARILY BE
SLN...RSL AND GBD...POSSIBLY HUT...WITH ICT AND CNU LIKELY THE
VERY SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE LOW CIGS. CONSEQUENTLY...TAF
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST FOR ICT-CNU...AND ONLY WENT WITH SCT DECKS AT
THIS POINT. CIGS WILL BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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