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000
FXUS63 KICT 240455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 11 PM
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 28 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR. STILL EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM KGCK TO KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP NEAR KGLD. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO NW OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WEAKENS
THE CAP. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT FOR AREAS NW OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST-SE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS WELL AFTER SUNSET. MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS NORTH RIGHT INTO THIS CONVECTION. THINK ANY
SEVERE CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS...WILL BE WELL AFTER SUNSET..WITH
CURRENT SEVERE WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

COLD POOL WILL PUSH THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL THREAT DIMINISHING...BUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THINK THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE....WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE STORMS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE MCS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE
KS BY EARLY THU.

THU-FRI: NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN AFTER TONIGHTS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS REMNANT MCS MOVES EAST
INTO MO. MOST OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON FRI...FOR A NICE
SPRING DAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRI NIGHT-SUN: IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW US AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCE EARLY SAT FOR AREAS OVER
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SAT AFTERNOON...AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
IN THE SRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FLOWING INTO KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
BRING THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYLINE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL GET FOR SAT...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SLOWER
WILL ALLOW THE WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE FURTHER NORTH...PLACING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THINK AS MID LEVEL COOLING INCREASES...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY OH HOW FAR EAST THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL GET SAT NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY THINK AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO AREA AFTER DARK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS DRYLINE SURGING TO THE EAST ON SUN
PUSHING TO NEAR I-135 FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SURGES
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT.  CERTAINLY THINK ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. COULD SEE THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP ALOT EARLIER THAN
SAT POSSIBLY BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AS A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BULK SHEAR. COULD SEE SEVERE STORM MODE
EITHER BE...CLOSELY SPACED QUICK MOVING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...AS FLOW IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN ON SAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY RACING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KMKC/KTOP.

MON-TUE: MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE UNDERNEATH THIS LOW AS THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW
MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND DAMP START TO THE WEEK.
COLD CORE NATURE TO THIS LOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED STORMS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ON MON
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL AND KSLN AFTER 05-07Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ON THU AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON/KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  75  48  83 /  40  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  74  47  83 /  60  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  73  48  81 /  60  20   0   0
ELDORADO        56  74  47  81 /  50  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  76  48  83 /  30  20   0   0
RUSSELL         48  73  46  82 /  80  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  73  45  83 /  90  10   0   0
SALINA          51  74  46  83 /  70  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       52  74  46  82 /  70  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  72  46  81 /  50  50   0   0
CHANUTE         59  72  45  81 /  50  60   0   0
IOLA            60  73  45  80 /  60  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  46  81 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR KSZ092-093.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 240109
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 11 PM
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 28 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR. STILL EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM KGCK TO KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP NEAR KGLD. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO NW OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WEAKENS
THE CAP. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT FOR AREAS NW OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST-SE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS WELL AFTER SUNSET. MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS NORTH RIGHT INTO THIS CONVECTION. THINK ANY
SEVERE CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS...WILL BE WELL AFTER SUNSET..WITH
CURRENT SEVERE WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

COLD POOL WILL PUSH THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL THREAT DIMINISHING...BUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THINK THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE....WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE STORMS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE MCS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE
KS BY EARLY THU.

THU-FRI: NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN AFTER TONIGHTS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS REMNANT MCS MOVES EAST
INTO MO. MOST OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON FRI...FOR A NICE
SPRING DAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRI NIGHT-SUN: IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW US AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCE EARLY SAT FOR AREAS OVER
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SAT AFTERNOON...AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
IN THE SRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FLOWING INTO KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
BRING THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYLINE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL GET FOR SAT...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SLOWER
WILL ALLOW THE WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE FURTHER NORTH...PLACING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THINK AS MID LEVEL COOLING INCREASES...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY OH HOW FAR EAST THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL GET SAT NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY THINK AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO AREA AFTER DARK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS DRYLINE SURGING TO THE EAST ON SUN
PUSHING TO NEAR I-135 FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SURGES
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT.  CERTAINLY THINK ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. COULD SEE THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP ALOT EARLIER THAN
SAT POSSIBLY BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AS A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BULK SHEAR. COULD SEE SEVERE STORM MODE
EITHER BE...CLOSELY SPACED QUICK MOVING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...AS FLOW IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN ON SAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY RACING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KMKC/KTOP.

MON-TUE: MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE UNDERNEATH THIS LOW AS THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW
MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND DAMP START TO THE WEEK.
COLD CORE NATURE TO THIS LOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED STORMS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ON MON
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHILE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL AND KSLN AFTER
04-05Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ON THU AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON/KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  75  48  83 /  80  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  74  47  83 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  73  48  81 /  80  20   0   0
ELDORADO        56  74  47  81 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  76  48  83 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELL         48  73  46  82 /  70  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  73  45  83 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          51  74  46  83 /  90  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       52  74  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  72  46  81 /  40  50   0   0
CHANUTE         59  72  45  81 /  50  60   0   0
IOLA            60  73  45  80 /  60  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  46  81 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 232347
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM KGCK TO KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP NEAR KGLD. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO NW OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WEAKENS
THE CAP. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT FOR AREAS NW OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST-SE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS WELL AFTER SUNSET. MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS NORTH RIGHT INTO THIS CONVECTION. THINK ANY
SEVERE CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS...WILL BE WELL AFTER SUNSET..WITH
CURRENT SEVERE WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

COLD POOL WILL PUSH THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL THREAT DIMINISHING...BUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THINK THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE....WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE STORMS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE MCS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE
KS BY EARLY THU.

THU-FRI: NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN AFTER TONIGHTS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS REMNANT MCS MOVES EAST
INTO MO. MOST OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON FRI...FOR A NICE
SPRING DAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRI NIGHT-SUN: IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW US AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCE EARLY SAT FOR AREAS OVER
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SAT AFTERNOON...AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
IN THE SRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FLOWING INTO KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
BRING THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYLINE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL GET FOR SAT...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SLOWER
WILL ALLOW THE WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE FURTHER NORTH...PLACING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THINK AS MID LEVEL COOLING INCREASES...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY OH HOW FAR EAST THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL GET SAT NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY THINK AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO AREA AFTER DARK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS DRYLINE SURGING TO THE EAST ON SUN
PUSHING TO NEAR I-135 FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SURGES
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT.  CERTAINLY THINK ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. COULD SEE THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP ALOT EARLIER THAN
SAT POSSIBLY BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AS A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BULK SHEAR. COULD SEE SEVERE STORM MODE
EITHER BE...CLOSELY SPACED QUICK MOVING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...AS FLOW IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN ON SAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY RACING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KMKC/KTOP.

MON-TUE: MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE UNDERNEATH THIS LOW AS THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW
MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND DAMP START TO THE WEEK.
COLD CORE NATURE TO THIS LOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED STORMS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ON MON
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHILE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL AND KSLN AFTER
04-05Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ON THU AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON/KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  75  48  83 /  80  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  74  47  83 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  73  48  81 /  80  20   0   0
ELDORADO        56  74  47  81 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  76  48  83 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELL         48  73  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  73  45  83 /  90  10   0   0
SALINA          51  74  46  83 /  90  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       52  74  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  72  46  81 /  40  50   0   0
CHANUTE         59  72  45  81 /  50  60   0   0
IOLA            60  73  45  80 /  60  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  46  81 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-067.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 232037
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM KGCK TO KGLD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP NEAR KGLD. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO NW OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WEAKENS
THE CAP. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT FOR AREAS NW OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST-SE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS WELL AFTER SUNSET. MLCAPE AROUND 1200-1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS SUGGESTS SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS NORTH RIGHT INTO THIS CONVECTION. THINK ANY
SEVERE CHANCES IN CENTRAL KS...WILL BE WELL AFTER SUNSET..WITH
CURRENT SEVERE WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

COLD POOL WILL PUSH THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL THREAT DIMINISHING...BUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THINK THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE....WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE STORMS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE MCS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE
KS BY EARLY THU.

THU-FRI: NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN AFTER TONIGHTS SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS REMNANT MCS MOVES EAST
INTO MO. MOST OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BE IN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON FRI...FOR A NICE
SPRING DAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRI NIGHT-SUN: IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW US AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCE EARLY SAT FOR AREAS OVER
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SAT AFTERNOON...AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
IN THE SRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
FLOWING INTO KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS
BRING THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYLINE SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL GET FOR SAT...BUT THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SLOWER
WILL ALLOW THE WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE FURTHER NORTH...PLACING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THINK AS MID LEVEL COOLING INCREASES...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY OH HOW FAR EAST THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL GET SAT NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY THINK AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH END SEVERE STORMS MOVING
INTO AREA AFTER DARK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS DRYLINE SURGING TO THE EAST ON SUN
PUSHING TO NEAR I-135 FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SURGES
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT.  CERTAINLY THINK ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. COULD SEE THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP ALOT EARLIER THAN
SAT POSSIBLY BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AS A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH BETTER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BULK SHEAR. COULD SEE SEVERE STORM MODE
EITHER BE...CLOSELY SPACED QUICK MOVING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...AS FLOW IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN ON SAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY QUICKLY RACING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KMKC/KTOP.

MON-TUE: MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE UNDERNEATH THIS LOW AS THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS LOW
MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND DAMP START TO THE WEEK.
COLD CORE NATURE TO THIS LOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED STORMS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ON MON
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A DECENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCNU. WE ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE STRONG WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE WEST AND THEN AS THE SUN SETS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS
SHOULD MOVE INTO KRSL AND KHUT BY 03Z TO 04Z AND THEN PROGRESS
EAST HITTING KSLN AND KICT AROUND 06Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE HIT OR MISS AT KCNU. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE STORMS YOU CAN
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW VFR LEVELS BEFORE LIFTING DURING
THE MID MORNING.

CHANCE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ON THU AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON/KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  75  48  83 /  80  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  74  47  83 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  73  48  81 /  80  20   0   0
ELDORADO        56  74  47  81 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  76  48  83 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELL         48  73  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  73  45  83 /  90  10   0   0
SALINA          51  74  46  83 /  90  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       52  74  46  82 /  90  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  72  46  81 /  40  50   0   0
CHANUTE         59  72  45  81 /  50  60   0   0
IOLA            60  73  45  80 /  60  60   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  46  81 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-067.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE CONUS. ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISO-
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING AND MAY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THIS
ACTIVITY TO JUST SOME SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS.

WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAVE THE AREA AS IS. UPGRADED MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK NORTH WITH
A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER WESTERN KS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AFTER SUNSET THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS START TO LIFT OUT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WHERE PLENTY OF
DIFFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO LINE UP ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM MODE WILL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KS...THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER DARK.

LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING WITH
MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE HAVING A SHOT AT STORMS
PRIOR TO 15Z THUR. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN
PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH ONE OR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES LIKELY.

SCT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SURGES QUICKLY NORTH. AT A MINIMUM AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SAT MORNING
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SAT EVENING. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WHICH IS
AN EXPECTED TREND WITH THESE DEEP DIGGING SYSTEMS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SURGE NORTH SAT WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS
DOES HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING IT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS DRYLINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETREAT WEST SAT EVENING.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE CAN WE
GET ON THE DRYLINE OR WARM FRONT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE AND WITH THE DRYLINE
RETREATING...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUN WHICH WILL SURGE THE DRYLINE EAST. BY 18Z SUN THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-135. AT THIS POINT FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER ON SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE THE UPPER DYNAMICS KICKING OUT ALONG WITH
LESS CAPPING DUE TO COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND LESS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ON SUN...AREAS
EAST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS.

MON AND TUE LOOK COLD AND DAMP AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO CLOSE
OFF AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SPILL SOUTH.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A DECENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCNU. WE ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE STRONG WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE WEST AND THEN AS THE SUN SETS...WE
SHOULD EXPECT THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS
SHOULD MOVE INTO KRSL AND KHUT BY 03Z TO 04Z AND THEN PROGRESS
EAST HITTING KSLN AND KICT AROUND 06Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE HIT OR MISS AT KCNU. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE STORMS YOU CAN
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW VFR LEVELS BEFORE LIFTING DURING
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATED THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. RH`S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THU
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  55  75  49 /  20  70  20   0
HUTCHINSON      83  52  74  47 /  40  90  10   0
NEWTON          82  53  73  49 /  50  80  20   0
ELDORADO        82  56  74  49 /  20  60  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  57  76  49 /  20  50  20   0
RUSSELL         84  48  73  45 /  40  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      84  50  73  45 /  30  90  10   0
SALINA          82  51  74  47 /  50  90  10   0
MCPHERSON       82  52  74  47 /  50  90  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     82  60  72  47 /  10  40  50   0
CHANUTE         81  59  72  46 /  10  50  60   0
IOLA            80  60  73  46 /  10  60  60   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  60  72  47 /  10  50  60   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-067.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 231203
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE CONUS. ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISO-
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING AND MAY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THIS
ACTIVITY TO JUST SOME SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS.

WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAVE THE AREA AS IS. UPGRADED MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK NORTH WITH
A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER WESTERN KS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AFTER SUNSET THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS START TO LIFT OUT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WHERE PLENTY OF
DIFFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO LINE UP ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM MODE WILL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KS...THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER DARK.

LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING WITH
MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE HAVING A SHOT AT STORMS
PRIOR TO 15Z THUR. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN
PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH ONE OR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES LIKELY.

SCT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SURGES QUICKLY NORTH. AT A MINIMUM AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SAT MORNING
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SAT EVENING. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WHICH IS
AN EXPECTED TREND WITH THESE DEEP DIGGING SYSTEMS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SURGE NORTH SAT WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS
DOES HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING IT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS DRYLINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETREAT WEST SAT EVENING.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE CAN WE
GET ON THE DRYLINE OR WARM FRONT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE AND WITH THE DRYLINE
RETREATING...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUN WHICH WILL SURGE THE DRYLINE EAST. BY 18Z SUN THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-135. AT THIS POINT FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER ON SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE THE UPPER DYNAMICS KICKING OUT ALONG WITH
LESS CAPPING DUE TO COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND LESS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ON SUN...AREAS
EAST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS.

MON AND TUE LOOK COLD AND DAMP AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO CLOSE
OFF AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SPILL SOUTH.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ISOLD TS MAY VISIT AREAS E OF THE KSLN VICINITY THIS MORNING BUT AM
LEAVING "VCTS" OUT OF THE TAF FOR TIME BEING. WDLY SCT/ISOLD --RA
MAY PESTER THE AREA TIL ~15Z BUT WITH LOWEST ~10,000FT OF AIRMASS
QUITE DRY VIRGA TO BE MOST LIKELY ENCOUNTERED.

A SFC CYCLONE THAT`LL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
WILL CAUSE SE WINDS 13-17KTS TO SHIFT TO DUE S & INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. SUSTAINED 26-30KTS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS BY LATE MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS
OVER SE KS. WITH THE INTENSE CYCLONE MOVG SE TOWARD THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES ONLY SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS KS LATER TONIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT
SVR TSRA CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING WINDS WOULD DEVELOP
OVER WRN KS & SURGE E/SE ACROSS CNTRL & ERN KS. BOTH LARGE HAIL &
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT EARLY THIS EVE BUT
DAMAGING 60KT WINDS WOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT THREAT LATER THIS
EVE & OVERNIGHT. SPECIFICS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE PROVIDED IN THE 18Z &
24/00Z EDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATED THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. RH`S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THU
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  55  75  49 /  20  70  20   0
HUTCHINSON      83  52  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
NEWTON          82  53  73  49 /  20  80  20   0
ELDORADO        82  56  74  49 /  20  60  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  57  76  49 /  10  50  20   0
RUSSELL         84  48  73  45 /  40  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      84  50  73  45 /  30  90  10   0
SALINA          82  51  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
MCPHERSON       82  52  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     82  60  72  47 /  10  40  50   0
CHANUTE         81  59  72  46 /  10  50  60   0
IOLA            80  60  73  46 /  10  60  60   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  60  72  47 /  10  50  60   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067.

&&

$$

ES








000
FXUS63 KICT 230820
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE CONUS. ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISO-
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING AND MAY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THIS
ACTIVITY TO JUST SOME SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS.

WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAVE THE AREA AS IS. UPGRADED MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK NORTH WITH
A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER WESTERN KS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AFTER SUNSET THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS START TO LIFT OUT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WHERE PLENTY OF
DIFFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO LINE UP ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM MODE WILL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KS...THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER DARK.

LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING WITH
MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE HAVING A SHOT AT STORMS
PRIOR TO 15Z THUR. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN
PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH ONE OR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES LIKELY.

SCT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SURGES QUICKLY NORTH. AT A MINIMUM AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SAT MORNING
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SAT EVENING. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WHICH IS
AN EXPECTED TREND WITH THESE DEEP DIGGING SYSTEMS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SURGE NORTH SAT WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS
DOES HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING IT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS DRYLINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETREAT WEST SAT EVENING.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE CAN WE
GET ON THE DRYLINE OR WARM FRONT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE AND WITH THE DRYLINE
RETREATING...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUN WHICH WILL SURGE THE DRYLINE EAST. BY 18Z SUN THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-135. AT THIS POINT FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER ON SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE THE UPPER DYNAMICS KICKING OUT ALONG WITH
LESS CAPPING DUE TO COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND LESS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ON SUN...AREAS
EAST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS.

MON AND TUE LOOK COLD AND DAMP AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO CLOSE
OFF AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SPILL SOUTH.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATED THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. RH`S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THU
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  55  75  49 /  10  70  20   0
HUTCHINSON      83  52  74  47 /  10  90  10   0
NEWTON          82  53  73  49 /  10  80  20   0
ELDORADO        82  56  74  49 /  10  60  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  57  76  49 /  10  50  20   0
RUSSELL         84  48  73  45 /  40  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      84  50  73  45 /  30  90  10   0
SALINA          82  51  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
MCPHERSON       82  52  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     82  60  72  47 /   0  40  50   0
CHANUTE         81  59  72  46 /   0  50  60   0
IOLA            80  60  73  46 /   0  60  60   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  59  72  47 /   0  50  60   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 230430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER CENTRAL KS...AS 700-600MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO
NOTHING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES...WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS
NORTHWEST OF KS TURNPIKE...ALONG WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KS (REFER TO "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS). NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES A
BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WITH COLD FRONT/DRYLINE REMAINING
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 7PM OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS.
FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL
/MULTI-CELL STORMS EARLY ON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. DESPITE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE
TO HIGH-BASED NATURE OF STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL
AFTER DARK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
DRYLINE...WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED MARGINAL TO LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND
TO WANE AS NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KS...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT.
TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY
THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS UPPER
PATTERN...DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ALL THE
REQUIRED FEATURES REMAIN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE THE
SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OF
ALASKA. GEM AND ECMWF CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY FAVORING A MORE HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL ATTEMPT TO NOT GET BOGGED DOWN IN SPECIFICS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL STATE THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY-SUNDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS...THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR GRASSES THAT ARE AT LEAST 90-95
PERCENT CURED. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
RENO-MCPHERSON- SALINE COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST. NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH/EAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH FULL SUN...WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SEND THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INTO THE "VERY HIGH" CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT CAN DRY OUT FROM OVERNIGHT RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  82  53  75 /   0  10  70  20
HUTCHINSON      54  82  53  74 /  10  10  70  10
NEWTON          53  80  52  73 /  10  10  80  20
ELDORADO        53  81  53  74 /   0  10  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  83  55  76 /   0  10  60  30
RUSSELL         55  83  49  72 /  30  40  90  10
GREAT BEND      55  83  49  72 /  20  30  90  10
SALINA          53  82  51  75 /  30  30  80  10
MCPHERSON       54  82  52  74 /  20  20  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  81  60  75 /   0   0  50  60
CHANUTE         48  80  60  74 /   0   0  60  60
IOLA            48  79  60  73 /   0   0  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    48  80  60  75 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 222330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER CENTRAL KS...AS 700-600MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO
NOTHING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES...WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS
NORTHWEST OF KS TURNPIKE...ALONG WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KS (REFER TO "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS). NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES A
BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WITH COLD FRONT/DRYLINE REMAINING
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 7PM OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS.
FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL
/MULTI-CELL STORMS EARLY ON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. DESPITE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE
TO HIGH-BASED NATURE OF STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL
AFTER DARK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
DRYLINE...WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED MARGINAL TO LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND
TO WANE AS NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KS...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT.
TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY
THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS UPPER
PATTERN...DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ALL THE
REQUIRED FEATURES REMAIN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE THE
SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OF
ALASKA. GEM AND ECMWF CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY FAVORING A MORE HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL ATTEMPT TO NOT GET BOGGED DOWN IN SPECIFICS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL STATE THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY-SUNDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE FOR TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS...THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR GRASSES THAT ARE AT LEAST 90-95
PERCENT CURED. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
RENO-MCPHERSON- SALINE COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST. NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH/EAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH FULL SUN...WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SEND THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INTO THE "VERY HIGH" CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT CAN DRY OUT FROM OVERNIGHT RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  82  53  75 /   0  10  70  20
HUTCHINSON      54  82  53  74 /  10  10  70  10
NEWTON          53  80  52  73 /  10  10  80  20
ELDORADO        53  81  53  74 /   0  10  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  83  55  76 /   0  10  60  30
RUSSELL         55  83  49  72 /  30  40  90  10
GREAT BEND      55  83  49  72 /  20  30  90  10
SALINA          53  82  51  75 /  30  30  80  10
MCPHERSON       54  82  52  74 /  20  20  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  81  60  75 /   0   0  50  60
CHANUTE         48  80  60  74 /   0   0  60  60
IOLA            48  79  60  73 /   0   0  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    48  80  60  75 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 222030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER CENTRAL KS...AS 700-600MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO
NOTHING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES...WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS
NORTHWEST OF KS TURNPIKE...ALONG WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KS (REFER TO "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS). NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES A
BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WITH COLD FRONT/DRYLINE REMAINING
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 7PM OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS.
FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL
/MULTI-CELL STORMS EARLY ON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. DESPITE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE
TO HIGH-BASED NATURE OF STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL
AFTER DARK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
DRYLINE...WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED MARGINAL TO LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND
TO WANE AS NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KS...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT.
TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY
THURSDAY.

ADK

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS UPPER
PATTERN...DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ALL THE
REQUIRED FEATURES REMAIN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE THE
SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OF
ALASKA. GEM AND ECMWF CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY FAVORING A MORE HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL ATTEMPT TO NOT GET BOGGED DOWN IN SPECIFICS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL STATE THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY-SUNDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK INCREASES...THERE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF KRSL
AND KSLN AFTER 06Z/WED. THINK THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO GO WITH A
VCTS FOR NOW.

THE BIGGER CONCERN EARLY ON WED WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 FOR WED MORNING. THINK SOUTHERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GRADIENT COULD BEGIN GUSTING AS HIGH AS
35 KTS BY AS EARLY AS 14Z/WED IN CENTRAL KS FOR KRSL AND KSLN.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS...THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR GRASSES THAT ARE AT LEAST 90-95
PERCENT CURED. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
RENO-MCPHERSON- SALINE COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST. NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH/EAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH FULL SUN...WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SEND THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INTO THE "VERY HIGH" CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT CAN DRY OUT FROM OVERNIGHT RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  82  53  75 /   0  10  70  20
HUTCHINSON      54  82  53  74 /  10  10  70  10
NEWTON          53  80  52  73 /  10  10  80  20
ELDORADO        53  81  53  74 /   0  10  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  83  55  76 /   0  10  60  30
RUSSELL         55  83  49  72 /  30  40  90  10
GREAT BEND      55  83  49  72 /  20  30  90  10
SALINA          53  82  51  75 /  30  30  80  10
MCPHERSON       54  82  52  74 /  20  20  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  81  60  75 /   0   0  50  60
CHANUTE         48  80  60  74 /   0   0  60  60
IOLA            48  79  60  73 /   0   0  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    48  80  60  75 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 221733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE UPPER IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SCATTERED STORMS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME ISO-SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. CAPPING ABOVE 850MB SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. BY WED MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SETUP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN NOT ONLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BUT ALSO OUT AHEAD OF IT AS MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
RAPIDLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE WED EVENING. BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT A SQUALL LINE OR LARGE MCS WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH GREAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT. THE
QUICK TRANSITION OF THE STORM MODE TO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL
REALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WED...THERE IS A CHANCE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE
30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST KS THU MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY THU AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO COLD WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDING TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

BY FRI AFTERNOON OUR NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER NORTHERN CA WITH THIS FEATURE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES
BY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE
SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE TILT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
SAT NIGHT. WHILE MANY DETAILS STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WOULDN`T BE
SHOCKED OF THIS TROUGH COMES OUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
IS FORECASTING GIVEN HOW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE
THESE SHARP TROUGHS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND UMKET SUPPORT THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
INCREASES...THERE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF KRSL AND KSLN AFTER
06Z/WED.  THINK THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR NOW.

THE BIGGER CONCERN EARLY ON WED WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 FOR WED MORNING. THINK SOUTHERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GRADIENT COULD BEGIN GUSTING AS HIGH AS
35 KTS BY AS EARLY AS 14Z/WED IN CENTRAL KS FOR KRSL AND KSLN.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR BOTH TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WED.

WIND ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AND WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-135. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE 20S TO PRODUCE
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EVEN
THOUGH RH`S WILL BE IN THE 40S...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-135 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  60
HUTCHINSON      76  54  82  54 /   0  10  20  60
NEWTON          74  53  80  55 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        74  53  81  58 /   0   0  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  53  83  59 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELL         78  55  83  46 /   0  30  40  70
GREAT BEND      78  55  83  47 /   0  20  40  70
SALINA          75  53  82  52 /   0  30  20  70
MCPHERSON       75  54  82  53 /   0  20  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     74  48  81  60 /   0   0  10  50
CHANUTE         71  48  80  59 /   0   0   0  60
IOLA            71  48  79  58 /   0   0   0  60
PARSONS-KPPF    74  48  80  59 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 221150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE UPPER IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SCATTERED STORMS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME ISO-SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. CAPPING ABOVE 850MB SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. BY WED MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SETUP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN NOT ONLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BUT ALSO OUT AHEAD OF IT AS MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
RAPIDLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE WED EVENING. BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT A SQUALL LINE OR LARGE MCS WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH GREAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT. THE
QUICK TRANSITION OF THE STORM MODE TO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL
REALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WED...THERE IS A CHANCE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE
30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST KS THU MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY THU AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO COLD WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDING TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

BY FRI AFTERNOON OUR NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER NORTHERN CA WITH THIS FEATURE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES
BY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE
SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE TILT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
SAT NIGHT. WHILE MANY DETAILS STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WOULDN`T BE
SHOCKED OF THIS TROUGH COMES OUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
IS FORECASTING GIVEN HOW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE
THESE SHARP TROUGHS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND UMKET SUPPORT THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS LARGE BUT RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E/SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY NE/E WINDS <=10KTS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
S/SE ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS THIS MORNING. AS A SFC TROF DEEPENS ALONG &
E OF THE FRONT RANGE THE S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER KRSL
WHERE ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER SUSTAINED 17KTS/20MPH & ~25KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL CLOUDINESS TO BE LIMITED TO ~10,000FT ALTOCU THAT WILL
SPILL SE OVER AN UPR-DECK RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR BOTH TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WED.

WIND ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AND WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-135. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE 20S TO PRODUCE
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EVEN
THOUGH RH`S WILL BE IN THE 40S...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-135 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  54  82  57 /   0  10  10  60
HUTCHINSON      76  54  82  54 /   0  10  20  60
NEWTON          74  53  80  55 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        74  53  81  58 /   0   0  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  53  83  59 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELL         78  55  83  46 /  10  20  40  70
GREAT BEND      78  55  83  47 /  10  20  40  70
SALINA          75  53  82  52 /   0  20  20  70
MCPHERSON       75  54  82  53 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     74  48  81  60 /   0   0  10  50
CHANUTE         71  48  80  59 /   0   0   0  60
IOLA            71  48  79  58 /   0   0   0  60
PARSONS-KPPF    74  48  80  59 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES








000
FXUS63 KICT 220817
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE UPPER IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SCATTERED STORMS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME ISO-SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. CAPPING ABOVE 850MB SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. BY WED MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SETUP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN NOT ONLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BUT ALSO OUT AHEAD OF IT AS MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
RAPIDLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE WED EVENING. BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT A SQUALL LINE OR LARGE MCS WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH GREAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT. THE
QUICK TRANSITION OF THE STORM MODE TO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL
REALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WED...THERE IS A CHANCE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE
30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST KS THU MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY THU AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO COLD WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDING TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

BY FRI AFTERNOON OUR NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER NORTHERN CA WITH THIS FEATURE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES
BY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE
SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE TILT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
SAT NIGHT. WHILE MANY DETAILS STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WOULDN`T BE
SHOCKED OF THIS TROUGH COMES OUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
IS FORECASTING GIVEN HOW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE
THESE SHARP TROUGHS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND UMKET SUPPORT THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-AFTERNOON.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR BOTH TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WED.

WIND ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AND WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-135. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE 20S TO PRODUCE
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EVEN
THOUGH RH`S WILL BE IN THE 40S...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-135 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  54  82  57 /   0  10  10  60
HUTCHINSON      76  54  82  54 /   0  10  20  60
NEWTON          74  53  80  55 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        74  53  81  58 /   0   0  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  53  83  59 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELL         78  55  83  49 /  10  20  40  70
GREAT BEND      78  55  83  49 /  10  20  40  70
SALINA          75  53  82  53 /   0  20  20  70
MCPHERSON       75  54  82  53 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     74  48  81  60 /   0   0  10  50
CHANUTE         71  48  80  58 /   0   0   0  60
IOLA            71  48  79  58 /   0   0   0  60
PARSONS-KPPF    74  48  80  59 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 220438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS/FIRE DANGER/SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM/EVE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING WIDELY SEPARATED
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
KS COUNTIES PRIOR TO 02Z. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DRAWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GIVEN IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW IS PROGGED OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE WED PM WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
MERGE. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE WED
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT MAX CONVERGENCE AREA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A BROKEN-SOLID LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS TOWARD
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. STORM SEVERITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD/AFTER 06Z
WED NIGHT AS MUCAPES DIMINISH.

MODELS AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY 18Z
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KS ENDING.
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A STRONGER CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE SUPPORT FROM THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FORECAST
DETAILS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RICH GULF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS...WHICH WILL BE SET AT 40-50% THIS FAR OUT
AND ADJUSTABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...TAPERING BACK TO AROUND
AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW WORKS ACROSS THE REGION.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH IN CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 14. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25-30% ARE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK
PROBABLE IN THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
40-45% ARE PROGGED.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  76  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      46  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  74  53  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        47  75  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  76  53  81 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         43  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      45  77  55  82 /   0  10  10  40
SALINA          44  75  53  80 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     49  74  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         47  72  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            47  71  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  74  48  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 212327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS/FIRE DANGER/SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM/EVE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING WIDELY SEPARATED
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
KS COUNTIES PRIOR TO 02Z. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DRAWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GIVEN IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW IS PROGGED OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE WED PM WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
MERGE. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE WED
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT MAX CONVERGENCE AREA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A BROKEN-SOLID LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS TOWARD
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. STORM SEVERITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD/AFTER 06Z
WED NIGHT AS MUCAPES DIMINISH.

MODELS AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY 18Z
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KS ENDING.
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A STRONGER CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE SUPPORT FROM THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FORECAST
DETAILS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RICH GULF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS...WHICH WILL BE SET AT 40-50% THIS FAR OUT
AND ADJUSTABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...TAPERING BACK TO AROUND
AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW WORKS ACROSS THE REGION.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24HRS. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FOR MAINLY KRSL TAF SITE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH IN CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 14. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25-30% ARE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK
PROBABLE IN THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
40-45% ARE PROGGED.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  76  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      46  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  74  53  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        47  75  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  76  53  81 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         43  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      45  77  55  82 /   0  10  10  40
SALINA          44  75  53  80 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     49  74  48  79 /  40   0   0  10
CHANUTE         47  72  48  78 /  20   0   0   0
IOLA            47  71  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  74  48  78 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS/FIRE DANGER/SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM/EVE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING WIDELY SEPARATED
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
KS COUNTIES PRIOR TO 02Z. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DRAWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GIVEN IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW IS PROGGED OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE WED PM WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
MERGE. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE WED
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT MAX CONVERGENCE AREA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A BROKEN-SOLID LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS TOWARD
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. STORM SEVERITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD/AFTER 06Z
WED NIGHT AS MUCAPES DIMINISH.

MODELS AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY 18Z
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KS ENDING.
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A STRONGER CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE SUPPORT FROM THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FORECAST
DETAILS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RICH GULF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS...WHICH WILL BE SET AT 40-50% THIS FAR OUT
AND ADJUSTABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...TAPERING BACK TO AROUND
AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW WORKS ACROSS THE REGION.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS OF
1740Z...IT HAD GONE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KCNU. WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CIGS
BKN020. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT OVER THE COURSE
OF A FEW HOURS AT KCNU...VEERING WINDS FROM 190 TO 350 OR SO BY
00Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THERE WILL
BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE PREVAILING 02015KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE SHOULD EASE BY 02Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

COOK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH IN CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 14. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25-30% ARE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK
PROBABLE IN THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
40-45% ARE PROGGED.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  76  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      46  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  74  53  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        47  75  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  76  53  81 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         43  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      45  77  55  82 /   0  10  10  40
SALINA          44  75  53  80 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     49  74  48  79 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         47  72  48  78 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            47  71  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  74  48  78 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211908
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
208 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN OK
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE AREA...ONE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH
ANOTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
HAVE BEEN FLOATING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AM EXPECTING
THESE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GET MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-135. BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE OZARK
REGION PUSHING THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND...HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

BY TUE MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER
NORTHERN CA. OVER THE PLAINS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST ON
TUE AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TUE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135
LATE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WED AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OUT OVER WESTERN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS AS
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR INITIATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON WED IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG MID
LEVEL THETA-E SURGE WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD TRACK EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE OVER SE KS BY 12Z THU. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WED NIGHT
IS OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND BY THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD THE GFS
AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRI WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH
ON FRI NIGHT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...THE GFS KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING
SITUATED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...THE GFS
DOES CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AN OPEN
WAVE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME
LOOKS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS OF
1740Z...IT HAD GONE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KCNU. WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CIGS
BKN020. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT OVER THE COURSE
OF A FEW HOURS AT KCNU...VEERING WINDS FROM 190 TO 350 OR SO BY
00Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THERE WILL
BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE PREVAILING 02015KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE SHOULD EASE BY 02Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

COOK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH FOR ALL AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL KS WHERE GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR TUE...WINDS
WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135. MEANWHILE...EAST
OF I-135 WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

WED WILL BE A DANGEROUS BURNING DAY AS VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  76  54  80 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      46  76  54  80 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  74  53  78 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        47  75  53  79 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  76  53  81 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         43  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      45  77  55  82 /  10  10  10  40
SALINA          44  75  53  80 /  10   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  76  54  80 /  10   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     49  74  48  79 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         47  72  48  78 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            47  71  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  74  48  78 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211743
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN OK
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE AREA...ONE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH
ANOTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
HAVE BEEN FLOATING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AM EXPECTING
THESE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GET MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-135. BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE OZARK
REGION PUSHING THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND...HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

BY TUE MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER
NORTHERN CA. OVER THE PLAINS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST ON
TUE AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TUE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135
LATE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WED AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OUT OVER WESTERN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS AS
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR INITIATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON WED IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG MID
LEVEL THETA-E SURGE WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD TRACK EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE OVER SE KS BY 12Z THU. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WED NIGHT
IS OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND BY THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD THE GFS
AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRI WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH
ON FRI NIGHT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...THE GFS KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING
SITUATED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...THE GFS
DOES CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AN OPEN
WAVE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME
LOOKS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS OF 1740Z...IT
HAD GONE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. WINDS
ARE RATHER VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CIGS BKN020. THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW
HOURS AT KCNU...VEERING WINDS FROM 190 TO 350 OR SO BY 00Z.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE PREVAILING 02015KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE SHOULD EASE BY 02Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

COOK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH FOR ALL AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL KS WHERE GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR TUE...WINDS
WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135. MEANWHILE...EAST
OF I-135 WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

WED WILL BE A DANGEROUS BURNING DAY AS VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  46  76  54 /  60   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  46  76  54 /  20   0   0  10
NEWTON          75  46  74  53 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        74  47  75  53 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  48  76  53 /  50   0   0   0
RUSSELL         77  43  76  55 /  90   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  45  77  55 /  90   0  10  10
SALINA          77  44  75  53 /  50   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  45  76  54 /  30   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  49  74  48 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  47  72  48 /  90  20   0   0
IOLA            73  47  71  48 /  80  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  74  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211157
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN OK
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE AREA...ONE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH
ANOTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
HAVE BEEN FLOATING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AM EXPECTING
THESE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GET MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-135. BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE OZARK
REGION PUSHING THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND...HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

BY TUE MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER
NORTHERN CA. OVER THE PLAINS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST ON
TUE AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TUE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135
LATE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WED AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OUT OVER WESTERN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS AS
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR INITIATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON WED IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG MID
LEVEL THETA-E SURGE WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD TRACK EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE OVER SE KS BY 12Z THU. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WED NIGHT
IS OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND BY THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD THE GFS
AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRI WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH
ON FRI NIGHT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...THE GFS KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING
SITUATED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...THE GFS
DOES CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AN OPEN
WAVE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME
LOOKS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AREA IS SC KS WHERE FOG IS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
VSBY FLUCTUATIONS. JUST SINCE 6 AM VSBYS HAVE VARIED FROM 1/4SM FG TO
4SM OVER VERY SHORT DISTANCES. ITS NOT SURPRISING THAT AREAS OF ~500FT
STRATUS...BE IT SCT OR BKN...ARE LURKING ABOUT THE PREMISES. BOTH WILL
PESTER THESE AREAS UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SC KS FROM 15-17Z &
ALTHOUGH THE NLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WOULD ONLY BE ~10KTS SCOURING WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO PLACE KHUT & KICT IN VFR STATUS BY 17Z. SCT SHRA WITH
A FEW TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ERN KS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON AROUND WHICH
TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING E/SE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WOULD RESULT IN EXCELLENT WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS
THRU TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH FOR ALL AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL KS WHERE GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR TUE...WINDS
WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135. MEANWHILE...EAST
OF I-135 WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

WED WILL BE A DANGEROUS BURNING DAY AS VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  46  77  54 /  20  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  46  77  54 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          75  46  75  53 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        74  47  75  53 /  30  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  48  77  53 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         77  43  78  55 /  30   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      76  45  78  55 /  30   0  10  20
SALINA          77  44  77  53 /  30   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  45  77  54 /  30   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  49  76  48 /  50  20   0   0
CHANUTE         74  47  74  48 /  50  20   0   0
IOLA            73  47  73  48 /  60  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  75  48 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES








000
FXUS63 KICT 210832
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN OK
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE AREA...ONE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH
ANOTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
HAVE BEEN FLOATING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AM EXPECTING
THESE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GET MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-135. BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE OZARK
REGION PUSHING THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND...HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

BY TUE MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER
NORTHERN CA. OVER THE PLAINS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST ON
TUE AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TUE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135
LATE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WED AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OUT OVER WESTERN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS AS
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR INITIATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON WED IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG MID
LEVEL THETA-E SURGE WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD TRACK EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE OVER SE KS BY 12Z THU. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WED NIGHT
IS OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND BY THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD THE GFS
AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRI WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH
ON FRI NIGHT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...THE GFS KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING
SITUATED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...THE GFS
DOES CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AN OPEN
WAVE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME
LOOKS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH FOR ALL AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL KS WHERE GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR TUE...WINDS
WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135. MEANWHILE...EAST
OF I-135 WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

WED WILL BE A DANGEROUS BURNING DAY AS VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  46  77  54 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  46  77  54 /  30   0  10  10
NEWTON          75  46  75  53 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        74  47  75  53 /  30  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  48  77  53 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         77  45  78  55 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      76  45  78  55 /  20   0  10  20
SALINA          77  44  77  53 /  30   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  45  77  54 /  30   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  49  76  48 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         74  47  74  48 /  60  20   0   0
IOLA            73  47  73  48 /  60  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  75  48 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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