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000
FXUS63 KICT 012341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...HAS ALSO LED TO WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS ACROSS ERN KS AS
WELL.   EXPECT THIS FLURRY CHANCE TO END BY AROUND SUNSET AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ENDS AND MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES
TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME FOR THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE
WIND ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z/SUN.

EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SLACKEN AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES...AS
THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A HUGE DROPOFF IN TEMPS...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD SEE TEMPS FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
CENTRAL KS...AND THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

MON-TUE: EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MON AND TUE...AS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE ON MON BEFORE GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE.

WED: THE TRICKY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND NAM/WRF AND ECMWF THE
SLOWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A LARGE TEMP BUST ON
WED...AS SLOWER ARRIVAL INTO SRN KS MAY LEAD ANOTHER WARM DOWNSLOPE
DAY AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SRN KS.
THE SUREST BET SEEMS TO BE COLDER TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS...WITH
FALLING TEMPS FOR WED AFTERNOON.  PLAN ON TAKING THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WHEN IT COMES TO MAX TEMPS FOR SRN KS...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ECMWF MODEL HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR
DEGREE THE NAM/WRF ON INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OK...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE TOP OF KS
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INTERACT
WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND THEN
ALL SNOW BY WED EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW CHANCE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ALOT OF MOISTURE IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH
REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 600-700H LAYER COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SNEAKY ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY
MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    11  35  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON       9  35  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON           9  33  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        10  34  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  35  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL          6  38  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       8  39  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA           7  34  23  57 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        8  34  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     15  33  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  32  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            12  31  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    13  33  25  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 012341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...HAS ALSO LED TO WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS ACROSS ERN KS AS
WELL.   EXPECT THIS FLURRY CHANCE TO END BY AROUND SUNSET AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ENDS AND MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES
TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME FOR THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE
WIND ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z/SUN.

EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SLACKEN AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES...AS
THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A HUGE DROPOFF IN TEMPS...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD SEE TEMPS FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
CENTRAL KS...AND THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

MON-TUE: EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MON AND TUE...AS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE ON MON BEFORE GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE.

WED: THE TRICKY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND NAM/WRF AND ECMWF THE
SLOWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A LARGE TEMP BUST ON
WED...AS SLOWER ARRIVAL INTO SRN KS MAY LEAD ANOTHER WARM DOWNSLOPE
DAY AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SRN KS.
THE SUREST BET SEEMS TO BE COLDER TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS...WITH
FALLING TEMPS FOR WED AFTERNOON.  PLAN ON TAKING THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WHEN IT COMES TO MAX TEMPS FOR SRN KS...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ECMWF MODEL HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR
DEGREE THE NAM/WRF ON INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OK...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE TOP OF KS
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INTERACT
WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND THEN
ALL SNOW BY WED EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW CHANCE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ALOT OF MOISTURE IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH
REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 600-700H LAYER COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SNEAKY ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY
MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    11  35  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON       9  35  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON           9  33  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        10  34  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  35  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL          6  38  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       8  39  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA           7  34  23  57 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        8  34  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     15  33  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  32  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            12  31  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    13  33  25  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 012107
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...HAS ALSO LED TO WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS ACROSS ERN KS AS
WELL.   EXPECT THIS FLURRY CHANCE TO END BY AROUND SUNSET AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ENDS AND MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES
TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME FOR THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE
WIND ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z/SUN.

EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SLACKEN AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES...AS
THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A HUGE DROPOFF IN TEMPS...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD SEE TEMPS FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
CENTRAL KS...AND THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

MON-TUE: EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MON AND TUE...AS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE ON MON BEFORE GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE.

WED: THE TRICKY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND NAM/WRF AND ECMWF THE
SLOWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A LARGE TEMP BUST ON
WED...AS SLOWER ARRIVAL INTO SRN KS MAY LEAD ANOTHER WARM DOWNSLOPE
DAY AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SRN KS.
THE SUREST BET SEEMS TO BE COLDER TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS...WITH
FALLING TEMPS FOR WED AFTERNOON.  PLAN ON TAKING THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WHEN IT COMES TO MAX TEMPS FOR SRN KS...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ECMWF MODEL HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR
DEGREE THE NAM/WRF ON INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OK...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE TOP OF KS
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INTERACT
WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND THEN
ALL SNOW BY WED EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW CHANCE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ALOT OF MOISTURE IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH
REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 600-700H LAYER COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SNEAKY ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARD
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING CNU THE LATEST. WILL SEE
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    11  35  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON       9  35  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON           9  33  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        10  34  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  35  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL          6  38  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       8  39  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA           7  34  23  57 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        8  34  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     15  33  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  32  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            12  31  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    13  33  25  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 012107
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...HAS ALSO LED TO WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS ACROSS ERN KS AS
WELL.   EXPECT THIS FLURRY CHANCE TO END BY AROUND SUNSET AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ENDS AND MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES
TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME FOR THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE
WIND ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z/SUN.

EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SLACKEN AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES...AS
THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A HUGE DROPOFF IN TEMPS...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD SEE TEMPS FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
CENTRAL KS...AND THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

MON-TUE: EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MON AND TUE...AS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE ON MON BEFORE GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE.

WED: THE TRICKY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND NAM/WRF AND ECMWF THE
SLOWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A LARGE TEMP BUST ON
WED...AS SLOWER ARRIVAL INTO SRN KS MAY LEAD ANOTHER WARM DOWNSLOPE
DAY AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SRN KS.
THE SUREST BET SEEMS TO BE COLDER TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS...WITH
FALLING TEMPS FOR WED AFTERNOON.  PLAN ON TAKING THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WHEN IT COMES TO MAX TEMPS FOR SRN KS...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ECMWF MODEL HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR
DEGREE THE NAM/WRF ON INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OK...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE TOP OF KS
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INTERACT
WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND THEN
ALL SNOW BY WED EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW CHANCE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ALOT OF MOISTURE IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH
REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 600-700H LAYER COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SNEAKY ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARD
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING CNU THE LATEST. WILL SEE
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    11  35  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON       9  35  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON           9  33  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        10  34  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  35  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL          6  38  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       8  39  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA           7  34  23  57 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        8  34  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     15  33  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  32  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            12  31  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    13  33  25  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARD
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING CNU THE LATEST. WILL SEE
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          30   9  34  23 /  50   0   0   0
ELDORADO        36  10  34  23 /  50   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
RUSSELL         21   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      23   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          27   7  35  23 /  50   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       28   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  13  33  23 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         42  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            41  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CIGS AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARD
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LEAVING CNU THE LATEST. WILL SEE
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          30   9  34  23 /  50   0   0   0
ELDORADO        36  10  34  23 /  50   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
RUSSELL         21   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      23   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          27   7  35  23 /  50   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       28   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  13  33  23 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         42  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            41  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    43  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011550
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011550
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011550
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011550
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE NORTH OF GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREAL OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED CRITERIA
A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY
ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY
PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH
DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF
GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREAL
OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED
CRITERIA A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE
COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT
AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY
PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH
DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF
GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREAL
OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED
CRITERIA A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE
COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT
AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
PREVAILING BY 15Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010911
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY
PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH
DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF
GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREAL
OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED
CRITERIA A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE
COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT
AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM KICT AND KSLN. THE FRONT IS KNOCKING ON KRSL DOOR AS
OF 06Z AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MIX IN
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KRSL/KSLN. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
KICT/KHUT AND HAVE INCLUDED -RASN IN A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT KICT/KHUT.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KRSL/KSLN.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY IN IFR/MVFR WITH SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 26 KTS AND GUSTS TO OVER 35KTS POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  30   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  20   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  40  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010911
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM RUSSELL TO PRATT. THIS WINTRY
PRECIP ELONGATED ALONG THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH
DAWN...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF
GREATER WICHITA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY ALSO OCCUR
INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA...WITH MAINLY LINGERING
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY AREAL
OUTLINE LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH SOME LOCALES MAY EXCEED
CRITERIA A COUPLE HOURS EARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER READINGS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MEDIUM RANGE PROGNOSTICS STILL SUPPORT POLAR AIR SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
CHANCES FOR A LIGHT PRECIP/SNOW EVENT. TRANSIENT LIFT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE
COLD AIR WILL HOLD SWAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT
AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOW A MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM KICT AND KSLN. THE FRONT IS KNOCKING ON KRSL DOOR AS
OF 06Z AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MIX IN
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KRSL/KSLN. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
KICT/KHUT AND HAVE INCLUDED -RASN IN A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT KICT/KHUT.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KRSL/KSLN.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY IN IFR/MVFR WITH SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 26 KTS AND GUSTS TO OVER 35KTS POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  11  35  24 /  30   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31   8  35  23 /  20   0   0   0
NEWTON          33   9  34  23 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  10  34  23 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  11  35  24 /  40  10   0   0
RUSSELL         26   8  39  24 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27   9  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          29   7  35  23 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       30   7  34  23 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  13  33  23 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  11  32  22 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            39  11  31  22 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  11  33  23 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010538
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM KICT AND KSLN. THE FRONT IS KNOCKING ON KRSL DOOR AS
OF 06Z AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MIX IN
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KRSL/KSLN. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
KICT/KHUT AND HAVE INCLUDED -RASN IN A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT KICT/KHUT.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KRSL/KSLN.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY IN IFR/MVFR WITH SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 26 KTS AND GUSTS TO OVER 35KTS POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010538
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM KICT AND KSLN. THE FRONT IS KNOCKING ON KRSL DOOR AS
OF 06Z AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MIX IN
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KRSL/KSLN. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
KICT/KHUT AND HAVE INCLUDED -RASN IN A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT KICT/KHUT.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KRSL/KSLN.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY IN IFR/MVFR WITH SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 26 KTS AND GUSTS TO OVER 35KTS POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CAUSING AVIATION CONCERNS WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACT KRSL FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MIX FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. THINK THE SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT KRSL/KSLN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CAUSING AVIATION CONCERNS WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACT KRSL FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MIX FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. THINK THE SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT KRSL/KSLN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CAUSING AVIATION CONCERNS WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACT KRSL FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MIX FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. THINK THE SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT KRSL/KSLN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CAUSING AVIATION CONCERNS WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACT KRSL FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MIX FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. THINK THE SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT KRSL/KSLN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 312341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CAUSING AVIATION CONCERNS WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACT KRSL FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MIX FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. THINK THE SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT KRSL/KSLN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  32  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  30  10  38 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  30  11  35 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        31  33  12  36 / 100  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  35  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  26  10  40 /  70  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  28  11  41 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          26  28   9  37 / 100  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  29   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     37  41  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         35  38  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            34  37  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    36  39  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 312341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CAUSING AVIATION CONCERNS WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IMPACT KRSL FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MIX FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. THINK THE SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT KRSL/KSLN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  32  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  30  10  38 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  30  11  35 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        31  33  12  36 / 100  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  35  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  26  10  40 /  70  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  28  11  41 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          26  28   9  37 / 100  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  29   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     37  41  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         35  38  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            34  37  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    36  39  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 312112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM




&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...SO THINKING THE
WINTRY MIX IS DONE AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO IFR FOR MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ALL SNOW FOR RSL-SLN AND MAYBE HUT
TOWARD 06-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  32  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  30  10  38 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  30  11  35 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        31  33  12  36 / 100  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  35  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  26  10  40 /  70  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  28  11  41 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          26  28   9  37 / 100  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  29   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     37  41  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         35  38  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            34  37  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    36  39  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 312112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM




&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...SO THINKING THE
WINTRY MIX IS DONE AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO IFR FOR MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ALL SNOW FOR RSL-SLN AND MAYBE HUT
TOWARD 06-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  32  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  30  10  38 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  30  11  35 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        31  33  12  36 / 100  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  35  13  37 / 100  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  26  10  40 /  70  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  28  11  41 /  70  10   0   0
SALINA          26  28   9  37 / 100  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  29   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     37  41  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         35  38  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            34  37  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    36  39  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

EARLY MORNING SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN-SLEET-
SNOW THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. A LIGHT
DUSTING IS POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE-OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE
SOUTH. A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...SO THINKING THE
WINTRY MIX IS DONE AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO IFR FOR MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ALL SNOW FOR RSL-SLN AND MAYBE HUT
TOWARD 06-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          40  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        42  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         40  24  27   9 /  90  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      40  25  29  10 /  90  90  10   0
SALINA          40  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  37  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            44  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    46  36  39  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311613
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1013 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

EARLY MORNING SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN-SLEET-
SNOW THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. A LIGHT
DUSTING IS POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE-OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE
SOUTH. A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ANY TRANSIENT VFR WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR/IFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BY
04-06Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH USHERING IN NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR. A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          40  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        42  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         40  24  27   9 /  90  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      40  25  29  10 /  90  90  10   0
SALINA          40  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  37  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            44  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    46  36  39  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311613
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1013 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

EARLY MORNING SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN-SLEET-
SNOW THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. A LIGHT
DUSTING IS POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE-OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON OR SO AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE
SOUTH. A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ANY TRANSIENT VFR WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR/IFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BY
04-06Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH USHERING IN NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR. A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          40  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        42  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         40  24  27   9 /  90  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      40  25  29  10 /  90  90  10   0
SALINA          40  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  37  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            44  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    46  36  39  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 311146
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
546 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ANY TRANSIENT VFR WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR/IFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BY
04-06Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH USHERING IN NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR. A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          41  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        43  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         41  24  27   9 /  90  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      42  25  29  10 /  90  90  10   0
SALINA          41  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     46  37  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            43  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  39  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUES TO BE THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION BEGAN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU WITH KRSL/KSLN HAVING THE MOST PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND
BE MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME SNOW HAS
ALREADY MIXED IN AT KRSL... AND COULD CONTINUE AT KRSL/KSLN BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OR WILL BE LONG LIVED IF THEY DO
ACCUMULATE. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND SLOWLY
DECREASE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. WITH HEAVIER PRECIP THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT HAVE REMAINED OVERALL OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
IMPACTING KRSL AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KSLN BEFORE 06Z ON THE 1ST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          41  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        43  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         41  24  27   9 / 100  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      42  25  29  10 / 100  90  10   0
SALINA          41  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            43  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  40  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 310936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VERY LIGHT PRECIP/MAINLY RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MORE RECENTLY A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A
DEEPER LAYER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TODAY RESULTING
IN MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORT OF A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH RAIN FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF...A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT RESIDENCE TIME AND RATES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK AND
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
CLEARING AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WAS TO TRIM MAX TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONTAL TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY AND
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS DOWN MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE A DECENT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE MID-WEEK FRONT
ARE NOT HIGH...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUES TO BE THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION BEGAN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU WITH KRSL/KSLN HAVING THE MOST PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND
BE MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME SNOW HAS
ALREADY MIXED IN AT KRSL... AND COULD CONTINUE AT KRSL/KSLN BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OR WILL BE LONG LIVED IF THEY DO
ACCUMULATE. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND SLOWLY
DECREASE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. WITH HEAVIER PRECIP THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT HAVE REMAINED OVERALL OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
IMPACTING KRSL AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KSLN BEFORE 06Z ON THE 1ST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  31  33  13 / 100 100  20   0
HUTCHINSON      41  28  31   9 / 100 100  20   0
NEWTON          41  29  31  10 / 100 100  20   0
ELDORADO        43  31  33  11 / 100 100  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  34  36  12 / 100 100  30   0
RUSSELL         41  24  27   9 / 100  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      42  25  29  10 / 100  90  10   0
SALINA          41  26  29   9 / 100 100  20   0
MCPHERSON       41  27  30   9 / 100 100  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  41  14 / 100 100  60   0
CHANUTE         44  35  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
IOLA            43  34  37  11 / 100 100  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  40  12 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310546
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS EVENING: DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE SW US. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS JUST AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CA. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOW LAYERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...SO RADAR RETURNS NOT
HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF  KANSAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

OVERNIGHT-SAT: ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE NIGHT-TIME CONTINUES.  THIS LIFT WILL HELP INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

TEMPS...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE.  LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT COMES OUT OF
THE SW US. BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.
DEPTH OF THE LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR FAIRLY
CONSTANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN HALF AN INCH OF QPF BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN.  BUT
AS THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO MO. SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ONLY LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THIS POLAR AIR TO LEAD A RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT
THE COLDEST AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...AS DOWNSLOPE
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON WED.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WITH IT.  GFS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH BY WED NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF IS
DRIER...WITH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  THINK ITS AT LEAST
WORTH A SLIGHT POP MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUES TO BE THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION BEGAN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU WITH KRSL/KSLN HAVING THE MOST PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND
BE MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME SNOW HAS
ALREADY MIXED IN AT KRSL... AND COULD CONTINUE AT KRSL/KSLN BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OR WILL BE LONG LIVED IF THEY DO
ACCUMULATE. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND SLOWLY
DECREASE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. WITH HEAVIER PRECIP THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT HAVE REMAINED OVERALL OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
IMPACTING KRSL AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KSLN BEFORE 06Z ON THE 1ST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  43  34  36 /  70  80  80  20
HUTCHINSON      33  43  31  33 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          34  42  32  33 /  80  80  80  20
ELDORADO        35  43  33  35 /  70  80  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  44  38  39 /  70  80  80  30
RUSSELL         33  44  28  29 / 100  60  70  10
GREAT BEND      34  43  30  31 / 100  70  70  10
SALINA          34  42  29  31 /  80  80  80  20
MCPHERSON       33  42  30  32 /  80  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  46  39  43 /  70  80  80  50
CHANUTE         34  43  38  40 /  70  80  80  50
IOLA            34  43  37  39 /  70  80  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    35  45  39  42 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 310546
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS EVENING: DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE SW US. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS JUST AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CA. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOW LAYERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...SO RADAR RETURNS NOT
HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF  KANSAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

OVERNIGHT-SAT: ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE NIGHT-TIME CONTINUES.  THIS LIFT WILL HELP INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

TEMPS...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE.  LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT COMES OUT OF
THE SW US. BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.
DEPTH OF THE LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR FAIRLY
CONSTANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN HALF AN INCH OF QPF BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN.  BUT
AS THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO MO. SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ONLY LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THIS POLAR AIR TO LEAD A RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT
THE COLDEST AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...AS DOWNSLOPE
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON WED.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WITH IT.  GFS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH BY WED NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF IS
DRIER...WITH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  THINK ITS AT LEAST
WORTH A SLIGHT POP MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUES TO BE THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION BEGAN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU WITH KRSL/KSLN HAVING THE MOST PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND
BE MORE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME SNOW HAS
ALREADY MIXED IN AT KRSL... AND COULD CONTINUE AT KRSL/KSLN BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OR WILL BE LONG LIVED IF THEY DO
ACCUMULATE. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND SLOWLY
DECREASE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. WITH HEAVIER PRECIP THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT HAVE REMAINED OVERALL OPTIMISTIC THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
IMPACTING KRSL AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KSLN BEFORE 06Z ON THE 1ST. THIS
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  43  34  36 /  70  80  80  20
HUTCHINSON      33  43  31  33 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          34  42  32  33 /  80  80  80  20
ELDORADO        35  43  33  35 /  70  80  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  44  38  39 /  70  80  80  30
RUSSELL         33  44  28  29 / 100  60  70  10
GREAT BEND      34  43  30  31 / 100  70  70  10
SALINA          34  42  29  31 /  80  80  80  20
MCPHERSON       33  42  30  32 /  80  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  46  39  43 /  70  80  80  50
CHANUTE         34  43  38  40 /  70  80  80  50
IOLA            34  43  37  39 /  70  80  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    35  45  39  42 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 302349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS EVENING: DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE SW US. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS JUST AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CA. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOW LAYERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...SO RADAR RETURNS NOT
HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF  KANSAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

OVERNIGHT-SAT: ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE NIGHT-TIME CONTINUES.  THIS LIFT WILL HELP INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

TEMPS...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE.  LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT COMES OUT OF
THE SW US. BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.
DEPTH OF THE LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR FAIRLY
CONSTANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN HALF AN INCH OF QPF BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN.  BUT
AS THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO MO. SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ONLY LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THIS POLAR AIR TO LEAD A RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT
THE COLDEST AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...AS DOWNSLOPE
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON WED.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WITH IT.  GFS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH BY WED NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF IS
DRIER...WITH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  THINK ITS AT LEAST
WORTH A SLIGHT POP MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE DISTURBANCE AND
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BEGIN AS RAIN OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT
KRSL/KSLN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY LIQUID AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR EARLY...BECOMING
MVFR. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE
REMAINED OPTIMISTIC WITH MVFR IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  43  34  36 /  70  80  80  20
HUTCHINSON      33  43  31  33 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          34  42  32  33 /  80  80  80  20
ELDORADO        35  43  33  35 /  70  80  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  44  38  39 /  70  80  80  30
RUSSELL         33  44  28  29 /  90  60  70  10
GREAT BEND      34  43  30  31 /  90  70  70  10
SALINA          34  42  29  31 /  80  80  80  20
MCPHERSON       33  42  30  32 /  80  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  46  39  43 /  70  80  80  50
CHANUTE         34  43  38  40 /  70  80  80  50
IOLA            34  43  37  39 /  70  80  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    35  45  39  42 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 302111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS EVENING: DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE SW US. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS JUST AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CA. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOW LAYERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...SO RADAR RETURNS NOT
HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF  KANSAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

OVERNIGHT-SAT: ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE NIGHT-TIME CONTINUES.  THIS LIFT WILL HELP INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

TEMPS...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE.  LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT COMES OUT OF
THE SW US. BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.
DEPTH OF THE LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR FAIRLY
CONSTANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN HALF AN INCH OF QPF BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN.  BUT
AS THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO MO. SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ONLY LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THIS POLAR AIR TO LEAD A RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT
THE COLDEST AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...AS DOWNSLOPE
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON WED.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WITH IT.  GFS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH BY WED NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF IS
DRIER...WITH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  THINK ITS AT LEAST
WORTH A SLIGHT POP MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES FOR
RSL- SLN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR TO LOW VFR IN THE RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  42  32  34 /  70  80  80  20
HUTCHINSON      33  41  29  31 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          34  41  30  32 /  80  80  80  20
ELDORADO        35  41  31  33 /  70  80  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  43  33  35 /  70  80  80  30
RUSSELL         33  40  26  29 /  90  60  70  10
GREAT BEND      34  40  27  30 /  90  70  70  10
SALINA          34  40  28  31 /  80  80  80  20
MCPHERSON       33  41  28  31 /  80  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  44  34  37 /  70  80  80  50
CHANUTE         34  43  32  35 /  70  80  80  50
IOLA            34  42  31  34 /  70  80  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    35  43  33  36 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 302111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS EVENING: DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE SW US. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS JUST AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CA. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOW LAYERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...SO RADAR RETURNS NOT
HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF  KANSAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

OVERNIGHT-SAT: ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE NIGHT-TIME CONTINUES.  THIS LIFT WILL HELP INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

TEMPS...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE.  LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT COMES OUT OF
THE SW US. BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.
DEPTH OF THE LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR FAIRLY
CONSTANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN HALF AN INCH OF QPF BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN.  BUT
AS THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO MO. SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ONLY LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THIS POLAR AIR TO LEAD A RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT
THE COLDEST AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...AS DOWNSLOPE
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON WED.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WITH IT.  GFS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH BY WED NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF IS
DRIER...WITH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  THINK ITS AT LEAST
WORTH A SLIGHT POP MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES FOR
RSL- SLN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR TO LOW VFR IN THE RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  42  32  34 /  70  80  80  20
HUTCHINSON      33  41  29  31 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          34  41  30  32 /  80  80  80  20
ELDORADO        35  41  31  33 /  70  80  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  43  33  35 /  70  80  80  30
RUSSELL         33  40  26  29 /  90  60  70  10
GREAT BEND      34  40  27  30 /  90  70  70  10
SALINA          34  40  28  31 /  80  80  80  20
MCPHERSON       33  41  28  31 /  80  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  44  34  37 /  70  80  80  50
CHANUTE         34  43  32  35 /  70  80  80  50
IOLA            34  42  31  34 /  70  80  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    35  43  33  36 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES FOR
RSL- SLN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR TO LOW VFR IN THE RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  41  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES FOR
RSL- SLN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR TO LOW VFR IN THE RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  41  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
536 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS
TO LOWER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
BY LATE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  41  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
536 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE CEILINGS
TO LOWER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
BY LATE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  41  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 300927
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN...ALBEIT LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 00Z AND AT KRSL/KSLN EARLIER THAN
KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT AS THE SURFACE
LAYER COOLS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THIS
FORECAST. AS THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL SNOW MOVES EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  40  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300927
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN...ALBEIT LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 00Z AND AT KRSL/KSLN EARLIER THAN
KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT AS THE SURFACE
LAYER COOLS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THIS
FORECAST. AS THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL SNOW MOVES EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  40  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 300529
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND:
*WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY.
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN-MON AND WED...WITH WARM-UP TUE.
*WARMER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S DUE TO DENSE MID- UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING INSOLATION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRI NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY STORM SYSTEM...AS
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST AND PERSISTENT 800-600MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT TO
AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN.
PRECIPITATION-TYPE COULD START OUT AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI
NIGHT--SAT MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS LOW AS THE LOW-MID
30S. HOWEVER...MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SUPPORT MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DUSTING. WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN FROM
LATE MORNING SAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS COLDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO FILTER SOUTH SAT NIGHT...RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND
PERHAPS CHANGE TO SNOW ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400 AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...FEEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH 1/2" TO 1"
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND 1/2" OR LESS OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THOUGH...THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GO UP SOME. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF CONSEQUENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST KS AND
NORTHERN MO. OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO DEFINITELY SOME BENEFICIAL MOISTURE.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DEEPENING EASTERN USA UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUN-MON ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY RAW DUE TO STOUT NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A QUICK WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S IS LIKELY FOR TUE...BUT THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT
AGAIN FOR WED- THU...AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CONUS...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER MID-AMERICA.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGHING
DEAMPLIFIES AND WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN...ALBEIT LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 00Z AND AT KRSL/KSLN EARLIER THAN
KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT AS THE SURFACE
LAYER COOLS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THIS
FORECAST. AS THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL SNOW MOVES EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    23  46  34  42 /   0   0  60  80
HUTCHINSON      23  47  33  41 /   0  10  60  80
NEWTON          21  46  32  41 /   0   0  60  80
ELDORADO        21  46  33  41 /   0   0  50  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   23  47  35  43 /   0   0  50  80
RUSSELL         22  47  32  40 /   0  10  70  80
GREAT BEND      21  47  32  40 /   0  10  70  80
SALINA          22  46  33  40 /   0   0  60  80
MCPHERSON       21  46  32  41 /   0   0  60  80
COFFEYVILLE     23  46  35  44 /   0   0  20  70
CHANUTE         22  45  33  43 /   0   0  30  70
IOLA            22  44  33  42 /   0   0  30  70
PARSONS-KPPF    22  46  34  43 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300529
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND:
*WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY.
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN-MON AND WED...WITH WARM-UP TUE.
*WARMER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S DUE TO DENSE MID- UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING INSOLATION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRI NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY STORM SYSTEM...AS
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST AND PERSISTENT 800-600MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT TO
AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN.
PRECIPITATION-TYPE COULD START OUT AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI
NIGHT--SAT MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS LOW AS THE LOW-MID
30S. HOWEVER...MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SUPPORT MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DUSTING. WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN FROM
LATE MORNING SAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS COLDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO FILTER SOUTH SAT NIGHT...RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND
PERHAPS CHANGE TO SNOW ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400 AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...FEEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH 1/2" TO 1"
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND 1/2" OR LESS OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THOUGH...THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GO UP SOME. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF CONSEQUENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST KS AND
NORTHERN MO. OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO DEFINITELY SOME BENEFICIAL MOISTURE.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DEEPENING EASTERN USA UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUN-MON ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY RAW DUE TO STOUT NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A QUICK WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S IS LIKELY FOR TUE...BUT THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT
AGAIN FOR WED- THU...AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CONUS...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER MID-AMERICA.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGHING
DEAMPLIFIES AND WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN...ALBEIT LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 00Z AND AT KRSL/KSLN EARLIER THAN
KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT AS THE SURFACE
LAYER COOLS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THIS
FORECAST. AS THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL SNOW MOVES EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    23  46  34  42 /   0   0  60  80
HUTCHINSON      23  47  33  41 /   0  10  60  80
NEWTON          21  46  32  41 /   0   0  60  80
ELDORADO        21  46  33  41 /   0   0  50  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   23  47  35  43 /   0   0  50  80
RUSSELL         22  47  32  40 /   0  10  70  80
GREAT BEND      21  47  32  40 /   0  10  70  80
SALINA          22  46  33  40 /   0   0  60  80
MCPHERSON       21  46  32  41 /   0   0  60  80
COFFEYVILLE     23  46  35  44 /   0   0  20  70
CHANUTE         22  45  33  43 /   0   0  30  70
IOLA            22  44  33  42 /   0   0  30  70
PARSONS-KPPF    22  46  34  43 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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