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000
FXUS63 KICT 301128
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
628 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
KCNU TERMINAL. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 300820
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH A FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND
TO THE NW AROUND 11Z AT KRSL AND 15Z AT KICT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

ES





000
FXUS63 KICT 300448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH A FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND
TO THE NW AROUND 11Z AT KRSL AND 15Z AT KICT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 300448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH A FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND
TO THE NW AROUND 11Z AT KRSL AND 15Z AT KICT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 292344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE OZARK REGION BY THU AFTERNOON. THE ONLY IMPACT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE FOR AVIATION WILL BE TO FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST THU MORNING INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291925
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
225 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TERMINALS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
WEAK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NEIGHBORHOOD. CLEAR SKIES &
NORTHWEST <7 MPH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE 40S IN
ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT NW WINDS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 32F & AS SUCH THE FROST ADVISORY NO DOUBT REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS UNTIL 9 AM.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
IT`LL CONTINUE TO BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT & THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS THE NW FLOW
DRIVES A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH SE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE IA/MO
BORDER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED FRI NIGHT`S LOWS INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S.
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER DECK TROF MOVING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
SAT MORNING WILL TAKE ON A STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES. BY MON NIGHT THE MID-UPPER TROF SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO BAJA CA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID LOWER-DECK TROFFING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THAT WOULD IN TURN INDUCE PRONOUNCED LOWER
DECK MOIST ADVECTION THAT WOULD TARGET EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS &
MO. AS SUCH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THESE
AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SLOWLY
SHIFTING SE MON NIGHT & TUE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL & SC KS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TERMINALS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  41  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  42  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  42  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  42  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          69  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  40  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 291132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
WEAK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NEIGHBORHOOD. CLEAR SKIES &
NORTHWEST <7 MPH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE 40S IN
ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT NW WINDS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 32F & AS SUCH THE FROST ADVISORY NO DOUBT REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS UNTIL 9 AM.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
IT`LL CONTINUE TO BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT & THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS THE NW FLOW
DRIVES A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH SE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE IA/MO
BORDER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED FRI NIGHT`S LOWS INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S.
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER DECK TROF MOVING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
SAT MORNING WILL TAKE ON A STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES. BY MON NIGHT THE MID-UPPER TROF SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO BAJA CA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID LOWER-DECK TROFFING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THAT WOULD IN TURN INDUCE PRONOUNCED LOWER
DECK MOIST ADVECTION THAT WOULD TARGET EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS &
MO. AS SUCH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THESE
AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SLOWLY
SHIFTING SE MON NIGHT & TUE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL & SC KS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WIND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SURFACE TROF WILL
THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROF AT KRSL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  41  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  42  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  42  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  42  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          69  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  40  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>049.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290800
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
WEAK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NEIGHBORHOOD. CLEAR SKIES &
NORTHWEST <7 MPH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE 40S IN
ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT NW WINDS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 32F & AS SUCH THE FROST ADVISORY NO DOUBT REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS UNTIL 9 AM.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
IT`LL CONTINUE TO BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT & THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS THE NW FLOW
DRIVES A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH SE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE IA/MO
BORDER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED FRI NIGHT`S LOWS INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S.
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER DECK TROF MOVING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
SAT MORNING WILL TAKE ON A STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES. BY MON NIGHT THE MID-UPPER TROF SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO BAJA CA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID LOWER-DECK TROFFING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THAT WOULD IN TURN INDUCE PRONOUNCED LOWER
DECK MOIST ADVECTION THAT WOULD TARGET EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS &
MO. AS SUCH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THESE
AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SLOWLY
SHIFTING SE MON NIGHT & TUE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL & SC KS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  41  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  42  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  42  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  42  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          69  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  40  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>049.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. LASTLY...MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN KS/OK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GONNA SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ANOTHER COUNTY ALONG INTERSTATE
70 TO THE FROST ADVISORY.  PORTIONS OF SALINE COUNTY MAY SEE TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
FROST ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRIME
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPS AND FROST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A FROST ADVISORY
OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE
RANGE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY KIND OF KILLING
FREEZE.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR WED WITH MODELS
AGREEING ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX DIVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO COME OUT OF IT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS
WILL HAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WHICH REALLY ISN`T
TOO FAR OFF OF SEASONAL NORMALS. FRI NIGHT MAYBE OUR FIRST SHOT AT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT GOING FOR
A KILLING FREEZE...WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES.

BY SAT MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ON SHORE OVER CA WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING OUT IN TWO
PIECES. ONE WILL LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARMING TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT DECENT
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF QUICKLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  69  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  70  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          35  69  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            39  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    39  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>049.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 290237
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
937 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. LASTLY...MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN KS/OK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GONNA SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ANOTHER COUNTY ALONG INTERSTATE
70 TO THE FROST ADVISORY.  PORTIONS OF SALINE COUNTY MAY SEE TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
FROST ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRIME
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPS AND FROST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A FROST ADVISORY
OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE
RANGE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY KIND OF KILLING
FREEZE.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR WED WITH MODELS
AGREEING ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX DIVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO COME OUT OF IT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS
WILL HAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WHICH REALLY ISN`T
TOO FAR OFF OF SEASONAL NORMALS. FRI NIGHT MAYBE OUR FIRST SHOT AT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT GOING FOR
A KILLING FREEZE...WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES.

BY SAT MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ON SHORE OVER CA WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING OUT IN TWO
PIECES. ONE WILL LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARMING TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT DECENT
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF QUICKLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  69  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  70  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          35  69  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            39  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    39  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>049.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 282337
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. LASTLY...MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN KS/OK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRIME
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPS AND FROST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A FROST ADVISORY
OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE
RANGE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY KIND OF KILLING
FREEZE.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR WED WITH MODELS
AGREEING ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX DIVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO COME OUT OF IT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS
WILL HAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WHICH REALLY ISN`T
TOO FAR OFF OF SEASONAL NORMALS. FRI NIGHT MAYBE OUR FIRST SHOT AT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT GOING FOR
A KILLING FREEZE...WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES.

BY SAT MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ON SHORE OVER CA WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING OUT IN TWO
PIECES. ONE WILL LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARMING TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT DECENT
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF QUICKLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  69  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  70  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          35  69  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            39  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    39  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 282012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. LASTLY...MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN KS/OK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRIME
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPS AND FROST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A FROST ADVISORY
OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE
RANGE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY KIND OF KILLING
FREEZE.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR WED WITH MODELS
AGREEING ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX DIVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO COME OUT OF IT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS
WILL HAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WHICH REALLY ISN`T
TOO FAR OFF OF SEASONAL NORMALS. FRI NIGHT MAYBE OUR FIRST SHOT AT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT GOING FOR
A KILLING FREEZE...WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES.

BY SAT MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ON SHORE OVER CA WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING OUT IN TWO
PIECES. ONE WILL LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARMING TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT DECENT
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF QUICKLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL EXIT KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

JMR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  69  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  70  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          35  69  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            39  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    39  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281735
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS
AN UPPER DECK RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. AS
THE WORK-WEEK PROGRESSES THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE
GREAT AMPLIFICATION WED NIGHT...REACHING ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS
THU & THU NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEPENING UPPER-DECK WAVE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ALL THE WAY TO GA & FL. WED SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH ~70F. ON
THU A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS IN THE
MORNING BUT AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO NO MORE THAN A SW-NW
WINDSHIFT SHOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THU AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY THU EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THERE WILL BE NICE WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED
ULTRA HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE GETS FORCED EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY & GREAT LAKES SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT BY AN INTENSE
UPPER-DECK TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW. ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
THE AFORE-MENTIONED DEEP UPPER TROF DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DESERT
SW. CONSIDERING HOW SLOW THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING ITS CONCEIVABLE
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MON SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL EXIT KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  39  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      67  38  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          66  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        67  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         65  37  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  37  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          66  36  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       66  37  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  38  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  37  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 281134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS
AN UPPER DECK RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. AS
THE WORK-WEEK PROGRESSES THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE
GREAT AMPLIFICATION WED NIGHT...REACHING ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS
THU & THU NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEPENING UPPER-DECK WAVE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ALL THE WAY TO GA & FL. WED SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH ~70F. ON
THU A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS IN THE
MORNING BUT AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO NO MORE THAN A SW-NW
WINDSHIFT SHOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THU AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY THU EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THERE WILL BE NICE WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED
ULTRA HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE GETS FORCED EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY & GREAT LAKES SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT BY AN INTENSE
UPPER-DECK TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW. ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
THE AFORE-MENTIONED DEEP UPPER TROF DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DESERT
SW. CONSIDERING HOW SLOW THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING ITS CONCEIVABLE
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MON SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME TRANSIENT
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  39  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      67  38  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          66  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        67  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         65  37  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  37  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          66  36  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       66  37  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  38  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  37  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280920
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
420 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS
AN UPPER DECK RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. AS
THE WORK-WEEK PROGRESSES THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE
GREAT AMPLIFICATION WED NIGHT...REACHING ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS
THU & THU NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEPENING UPPER-DECK WAVE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO ALL THE WAY TO GA & FL. WED SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH ~70F. ON
THU A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS IN THE
MORNING BUT AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO NO MORE THAN A SW-NW
WINDSHIFT SHOULD SIGNAL ITS ARRIVAL. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THU AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY THU EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THERE WILL BE NICE WEATHER THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED
ULTRA HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE GETS FORCED EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY & GREAT LAKES SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT BY AN INTENSE
UPPER-DECK TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW. ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
THE AFORE-MENTIONED DEEP UPPER TROF DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DESERT
SW. CONSIDERING HOW SLOW THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING ITS CONCEIVABLE
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MON SO STAY TUNED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EARLY MORNING
CONCERN WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS COME CLOSE TO THE
KCNU TAF SITE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FINALLY
PUSHES THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 08Z/TUE.

COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL KS...SO
WILL ADD A VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  39  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      67  38  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          66  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        67  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         65  37  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  37  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          66  36  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       66  37  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  38  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  37  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280454
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCED SLOWLY EASTWARD, IT HELPED
TO PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS WINDS SHIFTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS OF 4PM, THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE
TO COFFEYVILLE AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI AND WE MAY SEE THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID-LEVEL SATURATION WITH THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MODEST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SO HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT PASSING WAVE. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A MORE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONAL FLOW SETS UP THROUGH
MID WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED. NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS AND
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PASSING WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ADVANCING TROUGH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS
A RESULT, HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EARLY MORNING
CONCERN WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS COME CLOSE TO THE
KCNU TAF SITE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FINALLY
PUSHES THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 08Z/TUE.

COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL KS...SO
WILL ADD A VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  68  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  66  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  67  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  69  43  69 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         42  65  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      42  65  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          44  66  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  66  40  69 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  69  42  69 /  40   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  67  41  67 /  30   0   0   0
IOLA            49  67  40  67 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  68  42  68 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280454
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCED SLOWLY EASTWARD, IT HELPED
TO PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS WINDS SHIFTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS OF 4PM, THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE
TO COFFEYVILLE AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI AND WE MAY SEE THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID-LEVEL SATURATION WITH THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MODEST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SO HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT PASSING WAVE. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A MORE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONAL FLOW SETS UP THROUGH
MID WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED. NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS AND
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PASSING WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ADVANCING TROUGH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS
A RESULT, HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EARLY MORNING
CONCERN WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS COME CLOSE TO THE
KCNU TAF SITE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FINALLY
PUSHES THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 08Z/TUE.

COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL KS...SO
WILL ADD A VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  68  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  66  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  67  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  69  43  69 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         42  65  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      42  65  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          44  66  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  66  40  69 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  69  42  69 /  40   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  67  41  67 /  30   0   0   0
IOLA            49  67  40  67 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  68  42  68 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
825 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCED SLOWLY EASTWARD, IT HELPED
TO PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS WINDS SHIFTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS OF 4PM, THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE
TO COFFEYVILLE AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI AND WE MAY SEE THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID-LEVEL SATURATION WITH THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MODEST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SO HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT PASSING WAVE. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A MORE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONAL FLOW SETS UP THROUGH
MID WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED. NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS AND
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PASSING WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ADVANCING TROUGH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS
A RESULT, HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
VCSH NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE UNTIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE..EXPECT
NW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  68  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  66  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  67  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  69  43  69 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         42  65  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      42  65  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          44  66  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  66  40  69 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  69  42  69 /  40   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  67  41  67 /  30   0   0   0
IOLA            49  67  40  67 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  68  42  68 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 280025
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEST 1

.LONG TERM...
TEST 2

&&

.AVIATION...
TEST 3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  68  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  66  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  67  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  69  43  69 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         42  65  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      42  65  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          44  66  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  66  40  69 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  69  42  69 /  40   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  67  41  67 /  30   0   0   0
IOLA            49  67  40  67 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  68  42  68 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 272115
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCED SLOWLY EASTWARD, IT HELPED
TO PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS WINDS SHIFTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS OF 4PM, THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE
TO COFFEYVILLE AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI AND WE MAY SEE THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID-LEVEL SATURATION WITH THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MODEST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SO HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT PASSING WAVE. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A MORE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONAL FLOW SETS UP THROUGH
MID WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED. NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS AND
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PASSING WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ADVANCING TROUGH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS
A RESULT, HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID-WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  68  42 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      73  45  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          74  46  66  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        77  47  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  49  69  43 /  10  20   0   0
RUSSELL         72  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  42  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          74  44  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       73  45  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     83  50  69  42 /  30  40   0   0
CHANUTE         80  49  67  41 /  20  30   0   0
IOLA            80  49  67  40 /  20  30   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  49  68  42 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

..UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

DURING THE NIGHT A BROAD UPPER-DECK TROF WAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS
IT WAS MOVING E OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CHARACTER WAS BRINGING
A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT THAT CURVED FROM EASTERN SD...ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST KS TO SOUTHERN CO SE TOWARD KICT COUNTRY.
SE OF THE FRONT SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WERE TEAMING WITH A FAIRLY
DENSE CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG &
SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHILE IN CENTRAL & NORTH-CENTRAL KS TEMPERATURES
WERE SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE STARS OF THE SHOW ARE THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER WAVE & THE SE
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
SURGES E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS & ENCOUNTERS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY
ACROSS KS...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WELL
DEFINED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS AWAITS. AS SUCH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE EXPECTED TO VISIT AREAS ALONG & SOUTH
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY ALL RAINFALL DEPARTING
THE SOUTHEAST KS PREMISES LATE TONIGHT. NO DOUBT IT WON`T BE NEARLY AS
WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM ~70F IN CENTRAL KS TO ~80F ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS WITH TONIGHT`S LOWS PLUNGING TO ~40F IN
CENTRAL KS WITH UPPER 40S TICKETED FOR THE SOUTHEAST.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS SE ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER-DECK RIDGE MOVES EAST
OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THERE WILL BE NICE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
DECK WAVE GREATLY AMPLIFIES TO ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS AS IT SURGES E
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FROM WED NIGHT
THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CNU TERMINAL. FRONT HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE
THROUGH CNU AROUND 23Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT
OUT MENTION OF VCSH FOR CNU DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS DEVELOP
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS WELL AS LOSS OF HEATING AFTER 02Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  45  67  42 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      74  43  65  39 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          76  43  64  42 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        81  45  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  48  68  43 /  10  20   0   0
RUSSELL         70  39  63  38 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  40  63  38 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          75  41  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  42  64  39 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     84  48  69  43 /  30  40  10   0
CHANUTE         82  48  67  42 /  30  40  10   0
IOLA            81  48  66  41 /  30  40  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  48  68  41 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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