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000
FXUS63 KICT 211658
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      80  56  79  56 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          78  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         78  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      78  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          79  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       79  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 210813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
OZARK REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         79  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  50
GREAT BEND      79  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  50
COFFEYVILLE     77  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  53  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  52  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 210813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
OZARK REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         79  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  50
GREAT BEND      79  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  50
COFFEYVILLE     77  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  53  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  52  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 210522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
I-35 FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THESE AREAS TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AS GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE JOINED THE
ITS COHORTS WITH FOGGING IN ALL OF THESE AREAS. CHECKED SWING ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE...FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  77  59  77 /  10  10  50  20
HUTCHINSON      57  77  58  77 /  10  20  60  10
NEWTON          57  76  58  76 /   0  10  60  20
ELDORADO        56  77  58  75 /   0  10  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  77  59  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         58  77  56  77 /   0  40  60  10
GREAT BEND      58  77  56  78 /   0  30  60  10
SALINA          57  77  58  78 /   0  20  60  10
MCPHERSON       57  77  58  77 /   0  20  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  72  56  72 /   0  10  40  40
CHANUTE         52  69  56  72 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  68  56  72 /   0  10  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    53  71  56  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 210522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
I-35 FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THESE AREAS TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AS GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE JOINED THE
ITS COHORTS WITH FOGGING IN ALL OF THESE AREAS. CHECKED SWING ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE...FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  77  59  77 /  10  10  50  20
HUTCHINSON      57  77  58  77 /  10  20  60  10
NEWTON          57  76  58  76 /   0  10  60  20
ELDORADO        56  77  58  75 /   0  10  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  77  59  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         58  77  56  77 /   0  40  60  10
GREAT BEND      58  77  56  78 /   0  30  60  10
SALINA          57  77  58  78 /   0  20  60  10
MCPHERSON       57  77  58  77 /   0  20  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  72  56  72 /   0  10  40  40
CHANUTE         52  69  56  72 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  68  56  72 /   0  10  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    53  71  56  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 202355
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN THE ONSET OF E/SE WINDS WOULD
ENABLE MUCH HIGHER DWPTS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS SC KS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-35/I-135. NEARLY ALL SOUNDINGS (THE EXCEPTION
IS GFS) DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AT KICT & KHUT FROM
08Z-15Z WITH THE GREATEST VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING FROM 11Z-14Z. THE
FOG MAY SPREAD AS FAR N AS KSLN & KRSL ~11Z WHERE/WHEN 3-5SM VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT
CIGS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  75  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  74  57  77 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  73  57  76 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        50  74  56  77 /   0  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  40
GREAT BEND      48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  30
SALINA          47  73  57  77 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       49  73  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  54  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         48  71  52  69 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            48  70  51  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    49  72  53  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 202355
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN THE ONSET OF E/SE WINDS WOULD
ENABLE MUCH HIGHER DWPTS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS SC KS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-35/I-135. NEARLY ALL SOUNDINGS (THE EXCEPTION
IS GFS) DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AT KICT & KHUT FROM
08Z-15Z WITH THE GREATEST VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING FROM 11Z-14Z. THE
FOG MAY SPREAD AS FAR N AS KSLN & KRSL ~11Z WHERE/WHEN 3-5SM VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT
CIGS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  75  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  74  57  77 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  73  57  76 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        50  74  56  77 /   0  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  40
GREAT BEND      48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  30
SALINA          47  73  57  77 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       49  73  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  54  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         48  71  52  69 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            48  70  51  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    49  72  53  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 202022
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS...AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THIS
TROUGH WASHES OUT...EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SE-S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS BY TUE AM. OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AND CIGS AROUND 2000 AGL DEVELOPING
NEAR THE KICT AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KRSL TAF SITES BY AROUND
12-14Z/TUE. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION FOR KICT FOR NOW.  NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FOG OR CIGS COULD GO IFR OR
LIFR...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING NEAR KHUT BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  75  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  74  57  77 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  73  57  76 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        50  74  56  77 /   0  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  40
GREAT BEND      48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  30
SALINA          47  73  57  77 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       49  73  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  54  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         48  71  52  69 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            48  70  51  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    49  72  53  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 202022
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS...AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THIS
TROUGH WASHES OUT...EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SE-S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS BY TUE AM. OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AND CIGS AROUND 2000 AGL DEVELOPING
NEAR THE KICT AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KRSL TAF SITES BY AROUND
12-14Z/TUE. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION FOR KICT FOR NOW.  NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FOG OR CIGS COULD GO IFR OR
LIFR...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING NEAR KHUT BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  75  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  74  57  77 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  73  57  76 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        50  74  56  77 /   0  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  40
GREAT BEND      48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  30
SALINA          47  73  57  77 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       49  73  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  54  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         48  71  52  69 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            48  70  51  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    49  72  53  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 201733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS...AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THIS
TROUGH WASHES OUT...EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SE-S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS BY TUE AM. OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AND CIGS AROUND 2000 AGL DEVELOPING
NEAR THE KICT AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KRSL TAF SITES BY AROUND
12-14Z/TUE. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION FOR KICT FOR NOW.  NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FOG OR CIGS COULD GO IFR OR
LIFR...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING NEAR KHUT BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  51  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  53  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  48  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  49  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 201141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KS WHICH IS
EVIDENT BY A WIND SHIFT. JUST AHEAD OF THE CHANGE TO NORTH WINDS
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THIS HAS AFFECTED AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF I-135 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z. SO KHUT WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE AFFECTED. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  52  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  47  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047-048-
050-067-082-091.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 201141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KS WHICH IS
EVIDENT BY A WIND SHIFT. JUST AHEAD OF THE CHANGE TO NORTH WINDS
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THIS HAS AFFECTED AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF I-135 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z. SO KHUT WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE AFFECTED. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  52  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  47  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047-048-
050-067-082-091.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 201108
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  52  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  47  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 200813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  52  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  50  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        76  51  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  54  77  55 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         74  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  52  75  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         75  49  73  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  50  74  50 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KICT 200813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  52  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  50  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        76  51  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  54  77  55 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         74  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  52  75  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         75  49  73  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  50  74  50 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 200454
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 200454
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 200005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AM KEEPING AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA & ISOLD
TS ACROSS EXTREME SC & SE KS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SE
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE "VCSH"/"VCTS" OUT OF THE KICT & KCNU TAFS FOR TIME BEING. THE
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL OF COURSE KEEP WINDS <10KTS FOR
DURATION OF 20/00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 200005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AM KEEPING AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA & ISOLD
TS ACROSS EXTREME SC & SE KS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SE
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE "VCSH"/"VCTS" OUT OF THE KICT & KCNU TAFS FOR TIME BEING. THE
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL OF COURSE KEEP WINDS <10KTS FOR
DURATION OF 20/00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 200005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AM KEEPING AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA & ISOLD
TS ACROSS EXTREME SC & SE KS THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SE
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE "VCSH"/"VCTS" OUT OF THE KICT & KCNU TAFS FOR TIME BEING. THE
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL OF COURSE KEEP WINDS <10KTS FOR
DURATION OF 20/00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 191851
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS...WILL SEE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE
SRN KS TAF SITES INCLUDING KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME
CONDENSATION IN THE MID LAYERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES...BUT VERY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
MAINLY SPRINKLES. SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH IN THE TAFS.

BY MON MORNING...WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  30  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 191851
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS...WILL SEE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE
SRN KS TAF SITES INCLUDING KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME
CONDENSATION IN THE MID LAYERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES...BUT VERY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
MAINLY SPRINKLES. SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH IN THE TAFS.

BY MON MORNING...WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  30  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 191729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS...WILL SEE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE
SRN KS TAF SITES INCLUDING KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME
CONDENSATION IN THE MID LAYERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES...BUT VERY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
MAINLY SPRINKLES. SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH IN THE TAFS.

BY MON MORNING...WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  53  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  51  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  52  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  53  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  55  78  54 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  50  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  54  76  52 /  10  30  20  10
CHANUTE         70  53  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  53  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  53  76  50 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 191137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ON UPPER IMPULSE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER TRACKING ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER. THIS
FEATURE HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT 88D RETURNS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS EXPECTED. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER 00Z IN THE
4,000-6,000FT RANGE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  54  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  52  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  53  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  54  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  56  78  54 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  49  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  51  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  55  76  52 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         70  54  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  54  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  54  76  50 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 191137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ON UPPER IMPULSE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER TRACKING ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER. THIS
FEATURE HAS GENERATED SOME LIGHT 88D RETURNS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS EXPECTED. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER 00Z IN THE
4,000-6,000FT RANGE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  54  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  52  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  53  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  54  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  56  78  54 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  49  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  51  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  55  76  52 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         70  54  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  54  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  54  76  50 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 190819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ALL CLOUDINESS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM ~20,000FT CIRROSTRATUS TO ~13,000FT ALTOSTRATUS
EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM E/SE <=7KTS TO SLY
~13KTS SUN MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  54  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  52  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  53  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  54  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  56  78  54 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  49  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  51  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  55  76  52 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         70  54  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  54  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  54  76  50 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 190819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ALL CLOUDINESS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM ~20,000FT CIRROSTRATUS TO ~13,000FT ALTOSTRATUS
EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM E/SE <=7KTS TO SLY
~13KTS SUN MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  54  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  52  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  53  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  54  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  56  78  54 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  49  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  51  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  55  76  52 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         70  54  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  54  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  54  76  50 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 190458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ALL CLOUDINESS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM ~20,000FT CIRROSTRATUS TO ~13,000FT ALTOSTRATUS
EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM E/SE <=7KTS TO SLY
~13KTS SUN MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 190458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ALL CLOUDINESS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM ~20,000FT CIRROSTRATUS TO ~13,000FT ALTOSTRATUS
EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM E/SE <=7KTS TO SLY
~13KTS SUN MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 190458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ALL CLOUDINESS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM ~20,000FT CIRROSTRATUS TO ~13,000FT ALTOSTRATUS
EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM E/SE <=7KTS TO SLY
~13KTS SUN MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 190458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ALL CLOUDINESS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM ~20,000FT CIRROSTRATUS TO ~13,000FT ALTOSTRATUS
EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM E/SE <=7KTS TO SLY
~13KTS SUN MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 182345
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A SMORGASBORD OF DENSE CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS COVERED ALL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH 20,000-25,000FT CIGS. E-SE WINDS <7KTS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO SLY OVER ALL AREAS BY 14Z AS A WEAK SFC TROF HANGS OUT NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER. KRSL WOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE WINDSHIFT
BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN <15KTS SUN AFTN AS THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS INTO AN ALTOSTRATUS VARIANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 181844
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
144 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 181844
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
144 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 181725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING AT 500 MB MOVING INTO
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...CAUSING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE FLOW MAKES A NORTHERLY TURN TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...THE 18.00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
REALLY THE ONLY NWP MODEL THAT SHOWS PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCES ARE WARRANTED BUT NO MORE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM MONDAY. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN FROM THIS PREVIOUS
FRONT WILL NOT REALLY BE SCOURED OUT. THUS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY PROBLEM THERE IS
THAT FRONT IS RATHER FRONTOLITIC AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
IN. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING THE FURTHER ONE MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN INFLUENCES THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  44  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          63  44  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        65  43  72  54 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  45  73  55 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELL         62  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      63  45  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          63  44  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  43  70  54 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         64  42  69  53 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  42  69  52 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  42  70  53 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 181725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING AT 500 MB MOVING INTO
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...CAUSING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE FLOW MAKES A NORTHERLY TURN TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...THE 18.00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
REALLY THE ONLY NWP MODEL THAT SHOWS PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCES ARE WARRANTED BUT NO MORE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM MONDAY. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN FROM THIS PREVIOUS
FRONT WILL NOT REALLY BE SCOURED OUT. THUS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY PROBLEM THERE IS
THAT FRONT IS RATHER FRONTOLITIC AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
IN. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING THE FURTHER ONE MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN INFLUENCES THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  44  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          63  44  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        65  43  72  54 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  45  73  55 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELL         62  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      63  45  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          63  44  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  43  70  54 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         64  42  69  53 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  42  69  52 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  42  70  53 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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