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000
FXUS63 KICT 262156
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

IT IS A COLD BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ABUNDANT SUN...BUT
ALSO ABUNDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS KANSAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS TILTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A
DISTURBANCE THAT IS OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TO
BECOME A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DOMINANT WEATHER CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM COMING FOR THE
WEEKEND. FIRST OFF HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WOULD
CAUSE AN ADVISORY...BUT LOWER FOR WARNING AMOUNT SNOWFALL TOTALS.
FEEL THAT AN ADVISORY IS BEST ISSUED CLOSER TOWARD THE EVENT...AND
HELD OFF AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FRIDAY: PRE-WINTER STORM. A WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL KICK OFF SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED SOME. THE NAM/EC HAVE HINTED AT THE
WAVE/LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE IS LOW...LOW LEVELS ARE DRY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THAT. EXPECT IF IT OCCURS IT
WILL ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN RUNG OF COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

WINTER STORM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WATCHING GUIDANCE TODAY...FEEL THE NAM/EC/SREF HAVE BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION. FEEL THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW
ENTERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AVERAGING AROUND 3 INCHES.

THE NAM/EC/SREF KEEP THE NOSE OF WARM AIR FURTHER SOUTH IN
KANSAS VS. THE GFS...ANOTHER REASON FOR THE TREND AWAY FROM THE
GFS SOLUTION. FELT THE WARM NOSE WAS TOO WARM TOO FAR
NORTH...FELT A MORE PESSIMISTIC LOOK AT THE TEMPS WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE WAS BEST FOR NOW. KEPT THE 0 C LINE NEAR THE HIGHWAY
400 OR THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE THE
FREEZING LINE WILL END UP AND HOW THE SECOND HALF...SUNDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WILL EVOLVE. GIVEN THAT...THIS IS THE BEST
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE...BUT IT RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE NAM/EC
SOLUTIONS EXPECT PRECIP TO TREND DOWNWARD AND EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS KEPT A MORE BULLISH
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP
AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
END SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DID TREND DOWN AND REMOVE
POPS OVERNIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND 4 AND 6 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE DEEPER/FURTHER WEST
WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE...AS IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIP TYPE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS GENERAL
SUPPORT FOR COLDER WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    10  22  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
HUTCHINSON       8  23  14  28 /   0  10  20  90
NEWTON           7  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
ELDORADO         9  23  15  27 /   0  10  10  90
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  23  16  29 /   0  20  10  80
RUSSELL          5  22  13  28 /   0  10  30  70
GREAT BEND       8  22  13  27 /   0  10  40  80
SALINA           7  24  13  28 /   0   0  10  90
MCPHERSON        8  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
COFFEYVILLE     11  25  17  30 /   0  20  10  80
CHANUTE          9  23  16  29 /   0  10  10  90
IOLA             9  23  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
PARSONS-KPPF     9  24  17  30 /   0  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262156
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

IT IS A COLD BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ABUNDANT SUN...BUT
ALSO ABUNDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS KANSAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS TILTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A
DISTURBANCE THAT IS OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TO
BECOME A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DOMINANT WEATHER CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM COMING FOR THE
WEEKEND. FIRST OFF HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WOULD
CAUSE AN ADVISORY...BUT LOWER FOR WARNING AMOUNT SNOWFALL TOTALS.
FEEL THAT AN ADVISORY IS BEST ISSUED CLOSER TOWARD THE EVENT...AND
HELD OFF AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FRIDAY: PRE-WINTER STORM. A WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL KICK OFF SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED SOME. THE NAM/EC HAVE HINTED AT THE
WAVE/LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE IS LOW...LOW LEVELS ARE DRY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THAT. EXPECT IF IT OCCURS IT
WILL ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN RUNG OF COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

WINTER STORM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WATCHING GUIDANCE TODAY...FEEL THE NAM/EC/SREF HAVE BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION. FEEL THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW
ENTERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AVERAGING AROUND 3 INCHES.

THE NAM/EC/SREF KEEP THE NOSE OF WARM AIR FURTHER SOUTH IN
KANSAS VS. THE GFS...ANOTHER REASON FOR THE TREND AWAY FROM THE
GFS SOLUTION. FELT THE WARM NOSE WAS TOO WARM TOO FAR
NORTH...FELT A MORE PESSIMISTIC LOOK AT THE TEMPS WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE WAS BEST FOR NOW. KEPT THE 0 C LINE NEAR THE HIGHWAY
400 OR THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE THE
FREEZING LINE WILL END UP AND HOW THE SECOND HALF...SUNDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WILL EVOLVE. GIVEN THAT...THIS IS THE BEST
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE...BUT IT RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE NAM/EC
SOLUTIONS EXPECT PRECIP TO TREND DOWNWARD AND EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS KEPT A MORE BULLISH
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP
AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
END SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DID TREND DOWN AND REMOVE
POPS OVERNIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND 4 AND 6 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE DEEPER/FURTHER WEST
WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE...AS IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIP TYPE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS GENERAL
SUPPORT FOR COLDER WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    10  22  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
HUTCHINSON       8  23  14  28 /   0  10  20  90
NEWTON           7  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
ELDORADO         9  23  15  27 /   0  10  10  90
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  23  16  29 /   0  20  10  80
RUSSELL          5  22  13  28 /   0  10  30  70
GREAT BEND       8  22  13  27 /   0  10  40  80
SALINA           7  24  13  28 /   0   0  10  90
MCPHERSON        8  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
COFFEYVILLE     11  25  17  30 /   0  20  10  80
CHANUTE          9  23  16  29 /   0  10  10  90
IOLA             9  23  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
PARSONS-KPPF     9  24  17  30 /   0  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262156
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

IT IS A COLD BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ABUNDANT SUN...BUT
ALSO ABUNDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS KANSAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS TILTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A
DISTURBANCE THAT IS OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TO
BECOME A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DOMINANT WEATHER CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM COMING FOR THE
WEEKEND. FIRST OFF HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WOULD
CAUSE AN ADVISORY...BUT LOWER FOR WARNING AMOUNT SNOWFALL TOTALS.
FEEL THAT AN ADVISORY IS BEST ISSUED CLOSER TOWARD THE EVENT...AND
HELD OFF AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FRIDAY: PRE-WINTER STORM. A WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL KICK OFF SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED SOME. THE NAM/EC HAVE HINTED AT THE
WAVE/LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE IS LOW...LOW LEVELS ARE DRY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THAT. EXPECT IF IT OCCURS IT
WILL ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN RUNG OF COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

WINTER STORM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WATCHING GUIDANCE TODAY...FEEL THE NAM/EC/SREF HAVE BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION. FEEL THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW
ENTERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AVERAGING AROUND 3 INCHES.

THE NAM/EC/SREF KEEP THE NOSE OF WARM AIR FURTHER SOUTH IN
KANSAS VS. THE GFS...ANOTHER REASON FOR THE TREND AWAY FROM THE
GFS SOLUTION. FELT THE WARM NOSE WAS TOO WARM TOO FAR
NORTH...FELT A MORE PESSIMISTIC LOOK AT THE TEMPS WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE WAS BEST FOR NOW. KEPT THE 0 C LINE NEAR THE HIGHWAY
400 OR THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE THE
FREEZING LINE WILL END UP AND HOW THE SECOND HALF...SUNDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WILL EVOLVE. GIVEN THAT...THIS IS THE BEST
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE...BUT IT RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE NAM/EC
SOLUTIONS EXPECT PRECIP TO TREND DOWNWARD AND EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS KEPT A MORE BULLISH
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP
AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
END SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DID TREND DOWN AND REMOVE
POPS OVERNIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND 4 AND 6 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE DEEPER/FURTHER WEST
WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE...AS IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIP TYPE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS GENERAL
SUPPORT FOR COLDER WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    10  22  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
HUTCHINSON       8  23  14  28 /   0  10  20  90
NEWTON           7  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
ELDORADO         9  23  15  27 /   0  10  10  90
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  23  16  29 /   0  20  10  80
RUSSELL          5  22  13  28 /   0  10  30  70
GREAT BEND       8  22  13  27 /   0  10  40  80
SALINA           7  24  13  28 /   0   0  10  90
MCPHERSON        8  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
COFFEYVILLE     11  25  17  30 /   0  20  10  80
CHANUTE          9  23  16  29 /   0  10  10  90
IOLA             9  23  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
PARSONS-KPPF     9  24  17  30 /   0  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261728
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  20   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  20   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  20   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  20   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  20   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SCT-BKN ~2,000FT DECKS SHOULD COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH
KRSL & THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS THE EXCEPTIONS WHERE THEY WOULD
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT & POSSIBLY BEYOND. THE
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS AROUND MID-MORNING
ALTHOUGH N WINDS 17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH 30KT/35MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY THRU EARLY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY ~21Z AND BACK TOWARD THE NE AS AN INVERTED ARCTIC SFC
RIDGE SPREADS RAPIDLY SE FROM THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SCT-BKN ~2,000FT DECKS SHOULD COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH
KRSL & THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS THE EXCEPTIONS WHERE THEY WOULD
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT & POSSIBLY BEYOND. THE
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS AROUND MID-MORNING
ALTHOUGH N WINDS 17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH 30KT/35MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY THRU EARLY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY ~21Z AND BACK TOWARD THE NE AS AN INVERTED ARCTIC SFC
RIDGE SPREADS RAPIDLY SE FROM THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SCT-BKN ~2,000FT DECKS SHOULD COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH
KRSL & THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS THE EXCEPTIONS WHERE THEY WOULD
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT & POSSIBLY BEYOND. THE
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS AROUND MID-MORNING
ALTHOUGH N WINDS 17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH 30KT/35MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY THRU EARLY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY ~21Z AND BACK TOWARD THE NE AS AN INVERTED ARCTIC SFC
RIDGE SPREADS RAPIDLY SE FROM THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SCT-BKN ~2,000FT DECKS SHOULD COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH
KRSL & THEIR SURROUNDING AREAS THE EXCEPTIONS WHERE THEY WOULD
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT & POSSIBLY BEYOND. THE
SCT-BKN MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS AROUND MID-MORNING
ALTHOUGH N WINDS 17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH 30KT/35MPH GUSTS
ARE LIKELY THRU EARLY THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY ~21Z AND BACK TOWARD THE NE AS AN INVERTED ARCTIC SFC
RIDGE SPREADS RAPIDLY SE FROM THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10   0  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260358
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260358
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260358
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260358
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSIENT MVFR
MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 08-10Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A 2-3 HOUR POST-FRONTAL PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 35
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 03-04Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ050>053-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>049.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 252354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A 2-3 HOUR POST-FRONTAL PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 35
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 03-04Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ050>053-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>049.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A 2-3 HOUR POST-FRONTAL PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 35
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 03-04Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ050>053-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>049.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 252151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE MID AND IN SOME AREAS UPPER
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AS OF 3PM THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MCPHERSON AND
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...AND WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
THE COLDEST AIR IS FURTHER BEHIND THE MAIN WIND CHANGE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TWO-PRONGED. 1. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. 2. WINTER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...BEGINNING A WINTER STORM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

1. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI THAT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW
WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW THAT ANY RAIN/SNOW WILL FALL OVER THOSE AREAS. IF IT
DOES...EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BITTER WIND
CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
20S. CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING EVEN COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
AROUND 0 TO 10 BELOW.

2. THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN AT THAT
ITS STILL JUST ENTERING THE AREA TO THE WEST...WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE AREA TO WATCH BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z...THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THAT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE EASIER PART OF THE WINTER STORM FORECAST AS
THE SOUNDING IS ALL BELOW FREEZING. SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THE TRICKY PART...AS USUAL IS THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENTLY
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MAINLY LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLE. THIS IS NOT A STORM TOTAL FORECAST AND THE AMOUNTS WILL
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WINTER STORM WHICH WILL BE
MESSY. WILL NEED TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST NEARS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

WHILE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DETERMINING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS FAIRLY EASY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...GETS
MESSY AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENTER THE PICTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING...WHICH MAKES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED MAINLY THE GFS...AND TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE...TO GET THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THIS YIELDED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY
TO IDENTIFY ANY AMOUNTS AS THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DO NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL/STORM TOTALS...KEEP WATCHING.

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY DURING THE DAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT HAVING A LULL IN THE ACTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES DRYER AIR INTO PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OFF AND ON...WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING
BEYOND TUESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE COLD...DRY AIR
WILL COMBINE WITH THIS TO INCREASE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO VERY HIGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS
PERIOD THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS BELOW VERY HIGH AND NOT A
CONCERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  24   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      14  23   5  24 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        16  23   7  23 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   17  26   7  24 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         11  21   2  23 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       13  22   4  23 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     20  27   8  24 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         17  24   6  23 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            16  23   5  22 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  26   7  24 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM
SHALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES BEYOND A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL
OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF AROUND 5K
FEET FOR MOST SITES SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR A 25K FEET BY 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS EARLY THIS
AFTN THEN SC & SE KS EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE STAR
OF THE SHOW. THE FIRST AND MAJOR IMPACT WOULD BE THAT OF AN ABRUPT
WSHFT. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NLY AND
GREATLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS
LIKELY. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU SPREADING S/SE MAY VENTURE INTO MVFR
COUNTRY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS CNTRL & ESPECIALLY ERN KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL -RASN IS POSSIBLE OVER
PRIMARILY KSLN & KCNU BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBYS. NLY
WINDS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH UNTIL BETWEEN 26/06Z & 26/12Z AND ONLY A
SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT WOULD OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS EARLY THIS
AFTN THEN SC & SE KS EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE STAR
OF THE SHOW. THE FIRST AND MAJOR IMPACT WOULD BE THAT OF AN ABRUPT
WSHFT. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NLY AND
GREATLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS
LIKELY. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU SPREADING S/SE MAY VENTURE INTO MVFR
COUNTRY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS CNTRL & ESPECIALLY ERN KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL -RASN IS POSSIBLE OVER
PRIMARILY KSLN & KCNU BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBYS. NLY
WINDS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH UNTIL BETWEEN 26/06Z & 26/12Z AND ONLY A
SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT WOULD OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS EARLY THIS
AFTN THEN SC & SE KS EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE STAR
OF THE SHOW. THE FIRST AND MAJOR IMPACT WOULD BE THAT OF AN ABRUPT
WSHFT. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NLY AND
GREATLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS
LIKELY. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU SPREADING S/SE MAY VENTURE INTO MVFR
COUNTRY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS CNTRL & ESPECIALLY ERN KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL -RASN IS POSSIBLE OVER
PRIMARILY KSLN & KCNU BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBYS. NLY
WINDS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH UNTIL BETWEEN 26/06Z & 26/12Z AND ONLY A
SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT WOULD OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS EARLY THIS
AFTN THEN SC & SE KS EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE STAR
OF THE SHOW. THE FIRST AND MAJOR IMPACT WOULD BE THAT OF AN ABRUPT
WSHFT. SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NLY AND
GREATLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS
LIKELY. POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU SPREADING S/SE MAY VENTURE INTO MVFR
COUNTRY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS CNTRL & ESPECIALLY ERN KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL -RASN IS POSSIBLE OVER
PRIMARILY KSLN & KCNU BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBYS. NLY
WINDS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH UNTIL BETWEEN 26/06Z & 26/12Z AND ONLY A
SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT WOULD OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY
TIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 250916
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250916
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SOAR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT A PREMIUM AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO AIDING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WE RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GIVE WAY TO VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
SPEEDS LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERE
ALSO COULD BE A FLEET FOOTED SOUTHEAST MOVING BAND OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY COOLS AND
SATURATES A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC AIR OCCUPATION WILL REMAIN VERY WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND SUB ZERO WINDCHILLS DURING THE MORNING AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TO
MAKE THINGS EVEN WORSE THERE ARE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER
WEATHER SIGNALS FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH
A STEEPLY SLOPED LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ARCTIC
AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG
OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS KANSAS. THE POSSIBLE WINTER
EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WARM NOSE OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE MODEL
CHANGES ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...HOWEVER DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP AND A POSSIBLE LONG
DURATION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  16  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  14  22   4 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          58  12  21   3 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        57  14  22   5 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  17  24   7 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         57  11  20   2 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      58  13  21   4 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          57  13  21   3 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  13  21   3 /  20  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  20  26   8 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         54  17  23   6 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            54  16  22   5 /  10  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  18  25   7 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KSZ047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR KSZ032-033.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 250538
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /   0  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /   0  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /   0  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /   0  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /   0  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /   0  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /   0  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /   0  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250538
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /   0  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /   0  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /   0  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /   0  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /   0  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /   0  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /   0  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /   0  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 242340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /  10  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /  10  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /  10  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /  10  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 242340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /  10  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /  10  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /  10  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /  10  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 242129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST AROUND 20-23 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AREA-
WIDE...BEFORE INCREASING SOME TOWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND A STEEP BUT SHALLOW...LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION MAY YIELD AT LEAST TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CNU
TERMINAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /  10  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /  10  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /  10  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /  10  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 242129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST AROUND 20-23 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AREA-
WIDE...BEFORE INCREASING SOME TOWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND A STEEP BUT SHALLOW...LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION MAY YIELD AT LEAST TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CNU
TERMINAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /  10  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /  10  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /  10  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /  10  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST AROUND 20-23 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AREA-
WIDE...BEFORE INCREASING SOME TOWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND A STEEP BUT SHALLOW...LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION MAY YIELD AT LEAST TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CNU
TERMINAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  20  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      48  21  47  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          47  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        46  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         52  21  48  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      51  21  48  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          49  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       48  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     43  21  46  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    43  21  46  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST AROUND 20-23 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AREA-
WIDE...BEFORE INCREASING SOME TOWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND A STEEP BUT SHALLOW...LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION MAY YIELD AT LEAST TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CNU
TERMINAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  20  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      48  21  47  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          47  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        46  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         52  21  48  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      51  21  48  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          49  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       48  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     43  21  46  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    43  21  46  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRATOCU FROM 5,000-6,000FT THAT HAS COVERING SE KS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WILL LITERALLY CLEAR KCNU ~14Z. ALL AREAS TO REMAIN IN VFR
COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE 24/12Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH WLY WINDS ~10KTS WL
SHIFT TO THE NW & SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 13-17KTS/15-20MPH AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROF...FIRST AT KRSL 15-17Z...KSLN 16-18Z...
THEN AT KICT ~20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  20  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      48  21  47  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          46  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        45  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         50  21  48  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      50  21  48  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          48  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     42  21  46  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            42  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    42  21  46  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRATOCU FROM 5,000-6,000FT THAT HAS COVERING SE KS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WILL LITERALLY CLEAR KCNU ~14Z. ALL AREAS TO REMAIN IN VFR
COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE 24/12Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH WLY WINDS ~10KTS WL
SHIFT TO THE NW & SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 13-17KTS/15-20MPH AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROF...FIRST AT KRSL 15-17Z...KSLN 16-18Z...
THEN AT KICT ~20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  20  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      48  21  47  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          46  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        45  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         50  21  48  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      50  21  48  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          48  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     42  21  46  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         43  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            42  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    42  21  46  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240820
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  20  47  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      42  21  46  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          43  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        42  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         44  21  45  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      42  21  45  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          46  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       43  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     41  21  48  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         41  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            42  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    41  21  48  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240820
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW IS CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE
MON AS WE GET INTO SOME GOOD DOWNSLOPE. MIXING TO 850MB SHOULD
GIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO CLOSE TO 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THU. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WED
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR WED NIGHT INTO THU. JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR THU. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME FLURRIES FOR THU MORNING AS UPPER ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK TO BE ACTIVE AS THE PLAINS GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARVING OUT A SHARP POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST AND SETUP STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT...DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SAT. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FRONTOGENESIS UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SOME SLEET SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THE STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS CENTRAL
KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACT BY SOME HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S STAYING ABOVE 40%.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
POLAR AIR INVADES THE REGION WED NIGHT...PROVIDING HIGHS ON THU
IN THE 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  20  47  17 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      42  21  46  15 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          43  21  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        42  21  46  17 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  20  48  19 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         44  21  45  13 /   0   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      42  21  45  14 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          46  23  46  15 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       43  22  46  15 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     41  21  48  21 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         41  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
IOLA            42  21  46  18 /   0   0  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    41  21  48  20 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240514
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MUCH BELOW TEMPS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS THIS MORNING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE-WED: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR
50 ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY THE WARMEST WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TOP OF JUST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MID LEVEL SATURATION TO
INCREASE.

ANOTHER VORTEX DIVING OUT OF MANITOIBA INTO ONTARIO WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT SAVE MOVING
ACROSS MIDWEST WILL SCOOT EASTWARD. SYNCING OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PROVIDE MODEST VERTICAL ASCENT...THUS WARRANTS MENTION OF LOW
CHANCE POPS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A TRANSIENT AREA OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW
FOR WED NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
TRANSIENT AREA OF SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING.

ADK/SMF

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WHILE IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGNOSTICS THAT FAR OUT WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/ONSET AND PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE IN THE
ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BETTER MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION
FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AND WILL
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A NICE TAP OF MOISTURE...SO POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIP EVENT DOES EXIST TO SOME EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  43  21  45 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      12  44  20  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          13  43  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        14  43  21  44 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  42  20  45 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      11  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          15  46  22  46 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       14  44  21  45 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     14  42  21  44 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  42  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            13  43  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    13  42  21  44 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240514
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MUCH BELOW TEMPS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS THIS MORNING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE-WED: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR
50 ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY THE WARMEST WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TOP OF JUST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MID LEVEL SATURATION TO
INCREASE.

ANOTHER VORTEX DIVING OUT OF MANITOIBA INTO ONTARIO WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT SAVE MOVING
ACROSS MIDWEST WILL SCOOT EASTWARD. SYNCING OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PROVIDE MODEST VERTICAL ASCENT...THUS WARRANTS MENTION OF LOW
CHANCE POPS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A TRANSIENT AREA OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW
FOR WED NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
TRANSIENT AREA OF SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING.

ADK/SMF

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WHILE IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGNOSTICS THAT FAR OUT WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/ONSET AND PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE IN THE
ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BETTER MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION
FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AND WILL
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A NICE TAP OF MOISTURE...SO POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIP EVENT DOES EXIST TO SOME EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  43  21  45 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      12  44  20  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          13  43  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        14  43  21  44 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  42  20  45 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      11  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          15  46  22  46 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       14  44  21  45 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     14  42  21  44 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  42  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            13  43  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    13  42  21  44 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240514
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MUCH BELOW TEMPS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS THIS MORNING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE-WED: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR
50 ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY THE WARMEST WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TOP OF JUST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MID LEVEL SATURATION TO
INCREASE.

ANOTHER VORTEX DIVING OUT OF MANITOIBA INTO ONTARIO WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT SAVE MOVING
ACROSS MIDWEST WILL SCOOT EASTWARD. SYNCING OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PROVIDE MODEST VERTICAL ASCENT...THUS WARRANTS MENTION OF LOW
CHANCE POPS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A TRANSIENT AREA OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW
FOR WED NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
TRANSIENT AREA OF SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING.

ADK/SMF

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WHILE IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGNOSTICS THAT FAR OUT WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/ONSET AND PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE IN THE
ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BETTER MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION
FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AND WILL
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A NICE TAP OF MOISTURE...SO POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIP EVENT DOES EXIST TO SOME EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  43  21  45 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      12  44  20  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          13  43  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        14  43  21  44 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  42  20  45 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      11  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          15  46  22  46 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       14  44  21  45 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     14  42  21  44 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  42  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            13  43  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    13  42  21  44 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240514
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MUCH BELOW TEMPS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS THIS MORNING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE-WED: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR
50 ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY THE WARMEST WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TOP OF JUST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MID LEVEL SATURATION TO
INCREASE.

ANOTHER VORTEX DIVING OUT OF MANITOIBA INTO ONTARIO WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT SAVE MOVING
ACROSS MIDWEST WILL SCOOT EASTWARD. SYNCING OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PROVIDE MODEST VERTICAL ASCENT...THUS WARRANTS MENTION OF LOW
CHANCE POPS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A TRANSIENT AREA OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW
FOR WED NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
TRANSIENT AREA OF SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING.

ADK/SMF

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WHILE IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGNOSTICS THAT FAR OUT WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/ONSET AND PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE IN THE
ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BETTER MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION
FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AND WILL
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A NICE TAP OF MOISTURE...SO POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIP EVENT DOES EXIST TO SOME EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  43  21  45 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      12  44  20  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          13  43  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        14  43  21  44 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  42  20  45 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      11  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          15  46  22  46 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       14  44  21  45 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     14  42  21  44 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  42  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            13  43  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    13  42  21  44 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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