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000
FXUS63 KICT 261729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE SOME BREAKS FINALLY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE SOME BREAKS FINALLY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE SOME BREAKS FINALLY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU: COOL...MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH RSL MAY NOT GO MVFR UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINKING CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AGL BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...WITH LOW CIGS COMPLETELY
SCATTERING OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
BREEZY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THINKING ICT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING GRAZED BY THIS
ACTIVITY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU: COOL...MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH RSL MAY NOT GO MVFR UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINKING CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AGL BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...WITH LOW CIGS COMPLETELY
SCATTERING OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
BREEZY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THINKING ICT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING GRAZED BY THIS
ACTIVITY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU: COOL...MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH RSL MAY NOT GO MVFR UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINKING CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AGL BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...WITH LOW CIGS COMPLETELY
SCATTERING OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
BREEZY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THINKING ICT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING GRAZED BY THIS
ACTIVITY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 261149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU: COOL...MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH RSL MAY NOT GO MVFR UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINKING CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE 2000 FT AGL BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALL AREAS...WITH LOW CIGS COMPLETELY
SCATTERING OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
BREEZY OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THINKING ICT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING GRAZED BY THIS
ACTIVITY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260759
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE
MOISTENING SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE HIGHEST MEAN RH AND
850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL (.30
TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE ASCENT IS LESS
DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.
EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 260759
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE
MOISTENING SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE HIGHEST MEAN RH AND
850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL (.30
TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE ASCENT IS LESS
DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.
EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260410
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.
EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      48  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260410
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.
EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      48  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 260410
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.
EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      48  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AS THIS
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06-09Z/SUN.  EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      48  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AS THIS
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06-09Z/SUN.  EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      48  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  66  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 252001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      49  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  65  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 252001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL PRECLUDE
OR KEEP MENTION TO ISOLATED. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT
TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND/DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOSED/STACKED LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT
WITH A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE BULLISH ON
RAINFALL CHANCES/QPF FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE AS
THE ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING MOST
OF THE QPF SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE A RELATIVELY DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COMPROMISE APPROACH WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS/QPF ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND WILL GRADE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MORE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONUS SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  66  48  60 /  10  10  50  50
HUTCHINSON      49  64  45  59 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          48  63  45  60 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        49  65  47  61 /  10  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  68  49  60 /  10  10  60  60
RUSSELL         45  59  43  59 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      46  59  44  58 /  10  10  40  40
SALINA          46  63  43  62 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       46  63  44  61 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     51  68  49  63 /  10  10  40  40
CHANUTE         49  65  47  62 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            48  64  46  62 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  67  48  63 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS ITS WAY
ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MAINLY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DUE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...DIURNAL HEATING IN CONCERT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-LATE
MORNING...PROBABLY MOST WIDESPREAD FOR SLN-RSL. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AMIDST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED. BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT BY THIS
EVENING...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN
MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...DIURNAL HEATING IN CONCERT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-LATE
MORNING...PROBABLY MOST WIDESPREAD FOR SLN-RSL. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AMIDST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED. BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT BY THIS
EVENING...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN
MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...DIURNAL HEATING IN CONCERT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-LATE
MORNING...PROBABLY MOST WIDESPREAD FOR SLN-RSL. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AMIDST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED. BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT BY THIS
EVENING...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN
MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 251154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN
WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS
BACKSIDE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE
MOISTENING...IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20
TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND
WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT
THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...DIURNAL HEATING IN CONCERT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-LATE
MORNING...PROBABLY MOST WIDESPREAD FOR SLN-RSL. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AMIDST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED. BREEZY/GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT BY THIS
EVENING...WITH COLD ADVECTION AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN
MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  20  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE MOISTENING...IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR
REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND WILL TAPER RAIN
CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE MOISTENING...IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR
REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND WILL TAPER RAIN
CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 250729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE MOISTENING...IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR
REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND WILL TAPER RAIN
CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 250729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDER SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS PM/EVE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT UNDERNEATH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN WANING EARLY IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
VIA BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. STRATUS VIA UPSLOPE MOISTENING...IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCH APPEAR
REASONABLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND WILL TAPER RAIN
CHANCES TO NIL OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS. CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 50S-MIDDLE 60S SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE RICHER GULF
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  51  65  48 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      76  49  63  45 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          75  48  62  45 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        78  50  65  47 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  50  66  49 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         73  46  58  43 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75  47  59  44 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          72  46  61  43 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  47  62  44 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     82  50  67  49 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         77  49  65  47 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            75  48  64  46 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  50  67  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  66 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  90  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  50  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 242313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  66 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  70  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 242313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  66 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  70  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  20  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      79  53  76  46 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  20  50  10  10
ELDORADO        78  55  77  48 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  20  40  10  10
RUSSELL         75  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      79  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  50  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       77  53  75  45 /  40  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  81  51 /  20  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  20  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      79  53  76  46 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  20  50  10  10
ELDORADO        78  55  77  48 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  20  40  10  10
RUSSELL         75  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      79  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  50  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       77  53  75  45 /  40  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  81  51 /  20  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 241204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT ICT-
HUT-SLN-RSL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...WITH CNU
PROBABLY REMAINING MVFR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MIXING INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST FOR SLN-RSL
NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT ICT-HUT AND EVENTUALLY CNU AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  46 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  48 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  70  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  45 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  51 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT ICT-
HUT-SLN-RSL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...WITH CNU
PROBABLY REMAINING MVFR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MIXING INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST FOR SLN-RSL
NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT ICT-HUT AND EVENTUALLY CNU AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  46 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  48 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  70  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  45 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  51 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT ICT-
HUT-SLN-RSL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...WITH CNU
PROBABLY REMAINING MVFR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MIXING INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST FOR SLN-RSL
NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT ICT-HUT AND EVENTUALLY CNU AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  46 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  48 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  70  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  45 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  51 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240808
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  47 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  45 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  45 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  46 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  44 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  49 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  47 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  46 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  48 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240808
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  47 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  45 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  45 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  46 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  44 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  49 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  47 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  46 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  48 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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