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000
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  60  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  40  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  40  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  60  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  60  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  40  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  40  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  60  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 301737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
310-315K LAYER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO HELP BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  87  64 /  20  50  30  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  86  61 /  40  50  30  50
NEWTON          83  65  84  62 /  30  60  40  50
ELDORADO        84  65  86  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  86  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         79  59  80  55 /  60  40  30  50
GREAT BEND      80  60  80  56 /  60  40  30  40
SALINA          80  63  84  60 /  60  50  40  60
MCPHERSON       81  64  84  61 /  50  60  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  86  67 /  10  40  50  60
CHANUTE         85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
IOLA            85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  65  86  66 /  10  40  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 301737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
310-315K LAYER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO HELP BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  87  64 /  20  50  30  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  86  61 /  40  50  30  50
NEWTON          83  65  84  62 /  30  60  40  50
ELDORADO        84  65  86  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  86  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         79  59  80  55 /  60  40  30  50
GREAT BEND      80  60  80  56 /  60  40  30  40
SALINA          80  63  84  60 /  60  50  40  60
MCPHERSON       81  64  84  61 /  50  60  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  86  67 /  10  40  50  60
CHANUTE         85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
IOLA            85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  65  86  66 /  10  40  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 301150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  50  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  50  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 300734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  30  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  30  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  30  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  30  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 300734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  30  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  30  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  30  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  30  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 300452
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  20  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  65  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  60  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  30  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  20  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 292334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANTICIPATING CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AT KCNU.
OTHERWISE APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN/
KHUT IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KSLN/KHUT...
WITH CHANCES REACHING KICT AROUND 2100 UTC. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  30  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  65  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  50  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  40  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 292334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANTICIPATING CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AT KCNU.
OTHERWISE APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN/
KHUT IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KSLN/KHUT...
WITH CHANCES REACHING KICT AROUND 2100 UTC. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  30  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  65  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  50  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  40  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 292015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT-TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
TSRA ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT RSL...SLN...AND HUT TERMINALS WITH AT
LEAST TRANSIENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  30  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  64  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  50  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  40  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 292015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT-TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
TSRA ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT RSL...SLN...AND HUT TERMINALS WITH AT
LEAST TRANSIENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  30  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  64  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  50  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  40  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 291652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE RICHER/DEEPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS THEREAFTER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO REGION ALONG WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT-TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
TSRA ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT RSL...SLN...AND HUT TERMINALS WITH AT
LEAST TRANSIENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  63  85  65 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  64  83  64 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          85  63  83  65 /   0  10  30  60
ELDORADO        86  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  84  66 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         85  63  81  59 /  10  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      85  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  40
SALINA          85  64  82  63 /  10  20  60  60
MCPHERSON       85  64  82  64 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 291652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE RICHER/DEEPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS THEREAFTER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO REGION ALONG WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT-TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
TSRA ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT RSL...SLN...AND HUT TERMINALS WITH AT
LEAST TRANSIENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  63  85  65 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  64  83  64 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          85  63  83  65 /   0  10  30  60
ELDORADO        86  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  84  66 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         85  63  81  59 /  10  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      85  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  40
SALINA          85  64  82  63 /  10  20  60  60
MCPHERSON       85  64  82  64 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 291143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE RICHER/DEEPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS THEREAFTER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO REGION ALONG WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY FOR THE FIRST
18 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY MORNING
CONCERN WILL BE SOME MORNING FOG OVER SE KS...THAT MAY RESTRICT
VSBYS TO THE 2-4 MILE RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA IN AND NEAR THE KRSL TAF AFTER 06Z AND AFTER
09Z FOR KSLN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  63  85  65 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  64  83  64 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          85  63  83  65 /   0  10  30  60
ELDORADO        86  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  84  66 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         85  63  81  59 /  10  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      85  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  40
SALINA          85  64  82  63 /  10  20  60  60
MCPHERSON       85  64  82  64 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 290757
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE RICHER/DEEPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS THEREAFTER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO REGION ALONG WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT KCNU AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM
PERSISTENCE. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  63  85  65 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  64  83  64 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          85  63  83  65 /   0  10  30  60
ELDORADO        86  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  84  66 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         85  63  81  59 /  10  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      85  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  40
SALINA          85  64  82  63 /  10  20  60  60
MCPHERSON       85  64  82  64 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 290757
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE RICHER/DEEPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS THEREAFTER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO REGION ALONG WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT KCNU AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM
PERSISTENCE. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  63  85  65 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  64  83  64 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          85  63  83  65 /   0  10  30  60
ELDORADO        86  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  84  66 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         85  63  81  59 /  10  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      85  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  40
SALINA          85  64  82  63 /  10  20  60  60
MCPHERSON       85  64  82  64 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 290445
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME OF THIS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUE. A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WEST OF I-135 BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
NUMEROUS STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
GIVEN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET MAX OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
KS/OK PANHANDLE BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND A SHARPENING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
THUS HAS THE SURFACE FEATURES DISPLACED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO
THE NAM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAIN SEVERE
WX INGREDIENTS WILL BE 45-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON THU AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST WITH THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP AROUND OVER
SE KS A FEW HOURS LONGER. WHICHEVER ONE VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THU NIGHT. THE AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY AND
WILL THEREFORE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HIGHS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WHICH IS STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT KCNU AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM
PERSISTENCE. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  63  86 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  86  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          61  85  63  83 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        62  85  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         60  85  63  81 /  10  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      59  85  63  83 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          59  85  64  83 /   0  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  84  61  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 282359
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
659 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME OF THIS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUE. A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WEST OF I-135 BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
NUMEROUS STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
GIVEN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET MAX OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
KS/OK PANHANDLE BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND A SHARPENING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
THUS HAS THE SURFACE FEATURES DISPLACED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO
THE NAM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAIN SEVERE
WX INGREDIENTS WILL BE 45-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON THU AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST WITH THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP AROUND OVER
SE KS A FEW HOURS LONGER. WHICHEVER ONE VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THU NIGHT. THE AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY AND
WILL THEREFORE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HIGHS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WHICH IS STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT KCNU AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  63  86 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  86  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          61  85  63  83 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        62  85  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         60  85  63  81 /  10  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      59  85  63  83 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          59  85  64  83 /   0  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  84  61  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 282359
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
659 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME OF THIS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUE. A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WEST OF I-135 BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
NUMEROUS STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
GIVEN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET MAX OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
KS/OK PANHANDLE BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND A SHARPENING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
THUS HAS THE SURFACE FEATURES DISPLACED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO
THE NAM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAIN SEVERE
WX INGREDIENTS WILL BE 45-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON THU AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST WITH THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP AROUND OVER
SE KS A FEW HOURS LONGER. WHICHEVER ONE VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THU NIGHT. THE AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY AND
WILL THEREFORE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HIGHS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WHICH IS STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT KCNU AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  63  86 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  86  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          61  85  63  83 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        62  85  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         60  85  63  81 /  10  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      59  85  63  83 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          59  85  64  83 /   0  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  84 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  84  61  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 282011
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME OF THIS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUE. A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WEST OF I-135 BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
NUMEROUS STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
GIVEN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET MAX OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
KS/OK PANHANDLE BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND A SHARPENING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
THUS HAS THE SURFACE FEATURES DISPLACED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO
THE NAM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAIN SEVERE
WX INGREDIENTS WILL BE 45-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON THU AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST WITH THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP AROUND OVER
SE KS A FEW HOURS LONGER. WHICHEVER ONE VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THU NIGHT. THE AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY AND
WILL THEREFORE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HIGHS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WHICH IS STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. SCATTERED LOW-MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  86  63  86 /  10   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  86  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          61  85  63  83 /  10   0  10  30
ELDORADO        62  85  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         60  85  63  81 /  10  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      59  85  63  83 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          59  85  64  83 /  10  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  84  61  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 282011
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME OF THIS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUE. A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WEST OF I-135 BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
NUMEROUS STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
GIVEN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET MAX OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
KS/OK PANHANDLE BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND A SHARPENING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
THUS HAS THE SURFACE FEATURES DISPLACED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO
THE NAM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAIN SEVERE
WX INGREDIENTS WILL BE 45-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON THU AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST WITH THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP AROUND OVER
SE KS A FEW HOURS LONGER. WHICHEVER ONE VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THU NIGHT. THE AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY AND
WILL THEREFORE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HIGHS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WHICH IS STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. SCATTERED LOW-MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  86  63  86 /  10   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  86  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          61  85  63  83 /  10   0  10  30
ELDORADO        62  85  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         60  85  63  81 /  10  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      59  85  63  83 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          59  85  64  83 /  10  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  84  61  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 281720
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. SCATTERED LOW-MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 281720
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. SCATTERED LOW-MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 281129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 0NE MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 281129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 0NE MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 280816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 280816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 280440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MO/IA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/CO
AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUN AS THE
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS SUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. BY 12Z MON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
MON INTO MON EVENING AND BY 00Z TUE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON WITH RETURN FLOW AND
WARM TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KS
AND SHOULD AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
I-135 ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY REMAINS WILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND ACROSS KS/OK WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WED AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS.
WITH UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND A JET MAX PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY AREA ON WED-WED EVENING
WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH LOOKS TO BE CLOSE
TO THE TRIPLE POINT. BY FRI THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS COOLER AIR SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  62  86 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      60  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        58  86  61  85 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  85  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         59  86  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  84  61  84 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            57  83  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 280440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MO/IA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/CO
AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUN AS THE
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS SUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. BY 12Z MON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
MON INTO MON EVENING AND BY 00Z TUE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON WITH RETURN FLOW AND
WARM TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KS
AND SHOULD AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
I-135 ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY REMAINS WILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND ACROSS KS/OK WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WED AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS.
WITH UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND A JET MAX PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY AREA ON WED-WED EVENING
WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH LOOKS TO BE CLOSE
TO THE TRIPLE POINT. BY FRI THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS COOLER AIR SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  62  86 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      60  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        58  86  61  85 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  85  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         59  86  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  84  61  84 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            57  83  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 272308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MO/IA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/CO
AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUN AS THE
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS SUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. BY 12Z MON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
MON INTO MON EVENING AND BY 00Z TUE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON WITH RETURN FLOW AND
WARM TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KS
AND SHOULD AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
I-135 ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY REMAINS WILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND ACROSS KS/OK WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WED AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS.
WITH UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND A JET MAX PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY AREA ON WED-WED EVENING
WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH LOOKS TO BE CLOSE
TO THE TRIPLE POINT. BY FRI THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS COOLER AIR SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  62  86 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      60  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        58  86  61  85 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  85  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         59  86  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  84  61  84 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            57  83  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 272308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MO/IA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/CO
AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUN AS THE
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS SUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. BY 12Z MON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
MON INTO MON EVENING AND BY 00Z TUE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON WITH RETURN FLOW AND
WARM TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KS
AND SHOULD AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
I-135 ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY REMAINS WILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND ACROSS KS/OK WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WED AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS.
WITH UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND A JET MAX PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY AREA ON WED-WED EVENING
WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH LOOKS TO BE CLOSE
TO THE TRIPLE POINT. BY FRI THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS COOLER AIR SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  62  86 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      60  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        58  86  61  85 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  85  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         59  86  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  84  61  84 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            57  83  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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