000
FXUS63 KICT 191135
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): SVR TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT WAS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING IS
BEHAVING MUCH AS EXPECTED BY TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXCEPTIONALLY
POWERFUL SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE BETTER POSITIONED UNDER
PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROF. IN RESPONSE THE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH E/NE TOWARD CNTRL KS WHICH WOULD ENABLE A STRONG
SFC DRY LINE DRAPED ACROSS ERN NM TO PUSH E ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
EWD PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OVER THE
ERN PLAINS HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL WILL SPREAD NW & NE RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS SE KS. THE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY MORNING TSRA COUPLED
WITH SFC HEATING WOULD DEFINITELY INDUCE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE
CAPES FORECAST BY THE NAM & ESPECIALLY THE GFS OF 2500-4000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD EASILY PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL & TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS & WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO 125-150% OF NORMAL THE ++RA POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
INCREASE OVER SE KS.
ON MONDAY...WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS HAVING ALREADY ENSUD OVER NEBRASKA
& SD THE SFC FRONT MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES CNTRL KS. AS SUCH +TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER SE KS MON AFTERNOON & NGT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER SE KS. IN FACT A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SE KS MON NGT. AS THE NRN PLAINS CYCLONE
OCCLUDES TUE MORNING DEEPENING SW-WLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE SHRA/TSRA TO
END OVER SE KS TUE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AFTER A 2-DAY INTERMISSION SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
WED NGT WITH CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THU ONWARD. THE CULPRIT
IS A 2ND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL MOVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
LVL LOW. WITH THIS SCENARIO HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY
12Z THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL DECK HAS INHIBITED STRATUS FORMATION
THUS FAR...AND WILL CARRY A SCATTERED DECK 2000-2500 FT THIS
MORNING MOST SITES. VARIABLE WINDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING. WIDELY
SEPARATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS MID-LATE PM NEAR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARIES.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
W-NWRLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40
HUTCHINSON 84 59 81 55 / 50 20 20 30
NEWTON 87 60 79 57 / 60 30 30 30
ELDORADO 86 62 81 59 / 60 50 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60
RUSSELL 81 54 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 81 55 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
SALINA 83 58 80 53 / 50 20 20 30
MCPHERSON 84 59 80 55 / 50 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 85 65 83 62 / 60 80 60 90
CHANUTE 85 65 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
IOLA 85 65 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
PARSONS-KPPF 85 65 82 62 / 70 80 60 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190821
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): SVR TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT WAS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING IS
BEHAVING MUCH AS EXPECTED BY TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXCEPTIONALLY
POWERFUL SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE BETTER POSITIONED UNDER
PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROF. IN RESPONSE THE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH E/NE TOWARD CNTRL KS WHICH WOULD ENABLE A STRONG
SFC DRY LINE DRAPED ACROSS ERN NM TO PUSH E ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
EWD PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OVER THE
ERN PLAINS HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL WILL SPREAD NW & NE RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS SE KS. THE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY MORNING TSRA COUPLED
WITH SFC HEATING WOULD DEFINITELY INDUCE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE
CAPES FORECAST BY THE NAM & ESPECIALLY THE GFS OF 2500-4000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD EASILY PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL & TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS & WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO 125-150% OF NORMAL THE ++RA POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
INCREASE OVER SE KS.
ON MONDAY...WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS HAVING ALREADY ENSUD OVER NEBRASKA
& SD THE SFC FRONT MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES CNTRL KS. AS SUCH +TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER SE KS MON AFTERNOON & NGT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER SE KS. IN FACT A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SE KS MON NGT. AS THE NRN PLAINS CYCLONE
OCCLUDES TUE MORNING DEEPENING SW-WLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE SHRA/TSRA TO
END OVER SE KS TUE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AFTER A 2-DAY INTERMISSION SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
WED NGT WITH CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THU ONWARD. THE CULPRIT
IS A 2ND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL MOVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
LVL LOW. WITH THIS SCENARIO HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATING HIT-AND-MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGEST CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIME SIZE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...THINKING MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TOWARD DAWN DUE TO MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND DIURNAL COOLING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KICT AND ESPECIALLY KCNU
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40
HUTCHINSON 84 59 81 55 / 50 20 20 30
NEWTON 87 60 79 57 / 60 30 30 30
ELDORADO 86 62 81 59 / 60 50 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60
RUSSELL 81 54 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 81 55 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
SALINA 83 58 80 53 / 50 20 20 30
MCPHERSON 84 59 80 55 / 50 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 85 65 83 62 / 60 80 60 90
CHANUTE 85 65 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
IOLA 85 65 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
PARSONS-KPPF 85 65 82 62 / 70 80 60 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS63 KICT 190459
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO WANE...LIKELY DUE TO ACTIVITY RUNNING
INTO A FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION...AND OUTRUNNING BETTER
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALL PER TOP 00Z SOUNDING. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST OF THIS LINE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY SUB-SEVERE...AS ELEVATED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF APPROACHING NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. MAIN SHOW IS NOW
SLATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EASTERN KS.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATING HIT-AND-MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGEST CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIME SIZE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...THINKING MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TOWARD DAWN DUE TO MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND DIURNAL COOLING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KICT AND ESPECIALLY KCNU
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 86 60 81 / 70 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 66 87 58 83 / 70 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 70 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 86 63 81 / 50 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 70 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 70 40 20 20
SALINA 66 85 58 80 / 70 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 68 86 58 82 / 70 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 40 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 40 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 40 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190315
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO WANE...LIKELY DUE TO ACTIVITY RUNNING
INTO A FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION...AND OUTRUNNING BETTER
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALL PER TOP 00Z SOUNDING. MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST OF THIS LINE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY SUB-SEVERE...AS ELEVATED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF APPROACHING NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. MAIN SHOW IS NOW
SLATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER EASTERN KS.
ADK
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS STORMS RUN INTO A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY NOT EVEN
MAKING IT TO KCNU. IN WAKE OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF KICT-KSLN SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 70 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 70 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 70 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 70 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 70 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 70 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 40 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 40 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 40 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190217
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
843 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
IT APPEARS TORNADO THREAT MAY BE STARTING TO WANE SOME...AS
ACTIVITY HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MULTI-CELL
SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PER 00Z SOUNDINGS ACTING TO INCREASE COLD
POOL STRENGTH...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY MESSY MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND PROFILE. THINKING THE MAIN THREATS WILL NOW BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH POCKETS OF
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO
RULE OUT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING INTO RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMIDST STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THINKING THE
HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
ADK
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS STORMS RUN INTO A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY NOT EVEN
MAKING IT TO KCNU. IN WAKE OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF KICT-KSLN SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 70 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 70 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 70 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 70 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 70 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 70 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 40 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 40 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 40 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190210
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
843 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
IT APPEARS TORNADO THREAT MAY BE STARTING TO WANE SOME...AS
ACTIVITY HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MULTI-CELL
SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PER 00Z SOUNDINGS ACTING TO INCREASE COLD
POOL STRENGTH...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY MESSY MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND PROFILE. THINKING THE MAIN THREATS WILL NOW BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH POCKETS OF
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO
RULE OUT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING INTO RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMIDST STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THINKING THE
HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
ADK
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS STORMS RUN INTO A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY NOT EVEN
MAKING IT TO KCNU. IN WAKE OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF KICT-KSLN SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 70 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 70 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 70 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 70 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 70 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 70 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 40 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 40 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 40 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190143
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
843 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
IT APPEARS TORNADO THREAT MAY BE STARTING TO WANE SOME...AS
ACTIVITY HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MULTI-CELL
SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PER 00Z SOUNDINGS ACTING TO INCREASE COLD
POOL STRENGTH...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY MESSY MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND PROFILE. THINKING THE MAIN THREATS WILL NOW BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WITH POCKETS OF
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO
RULE OUT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING INTO RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMIDST STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THINKING THE
HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
ADK
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS STORMS RUN INTO A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY NOT EVEN
MAKING IT TO KCNU. IN WAKE OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF KICT-KSLN SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 70 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 70 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 70 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 70 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 70 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 70 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 40 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 40 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 40 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 40 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190035
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING...STRETCHING
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS...SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AND FURTHER
SOUTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL OK. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES TWO
SUPERCELLS...ONE OVER NORTHWEST RUSSELL COUNTY...AND ANOTHER MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL OVER PAWNEE COUNTY. BOTH STORMS HAVE STRONG
ROTATION...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND
WEST-CENTRAL OK APPEAR TO BE MORE MULTICELL/LINEAR IN
NATURE...WITH A LOW TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...DESPITE AN INCREASING CAP WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY TEND TO INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT AS ACTIVITY
HEADS EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA...HIGHEST
THREAT WEST OF I-135 BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
HELICITIES IN CONCERT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND LOW CLOUDS
HEIGHTS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADK
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS STORMS RUN INTO A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY NOT EVEN
MAKING IT TO KCNU. IN WAKE OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF KICT-KSLN SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 60 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 50 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 60 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 60 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 40 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 50 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 20 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 30 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 30 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 30 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 182349
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT KCNU THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS STORMS RUN INTO A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY NOT EVEN
MAKING IT TO KCNU. IN WAKE OF STORMS...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF KICT-KSLN SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 60 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 50 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 60 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 60 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 40 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 50 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 20 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 30 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 30 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 30 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181955
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED
SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS IMPACTING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE BIGGER THREAT TURNS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. TIMING WITH EXPECTED TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW AND WILL DEPEND ON STORM INITIATION.
EXPECT STORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WELL INTO THE MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 86 60 81 / 60 50 60 30
HUTCHINSON 67 87 58 83 / 50 50 40 30
NEWTON 67 83 60 78 / 60 60 60 30
ELDORADO 68 86 62 82 / 60 60 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 86 63 81 / 60 60 60 40
RUSSELL 64 82 52 79 / 50 40 20 20
GREAT BEND 64 82 53 79 / 50 40 20 20
SALINA 68 85 58 80 / 40 50 40 20
MCPHERSON 67 86 58 82 / 50 50 40 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 66 82 / 20 60 70 60
CHANUTE 70 85 66 81 / 30 70 70 50
IOLA 70 85 66 81 / 30 80 70 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 86 66 81 / 30 70 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181749
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER-CELLS
WITH A FEW TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST
THIS CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPER-CELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES OVER
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SUN & SUN EVENING.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE CNTRL & SRN
ROCKIES AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE NM/TX BORDER
SUN MORNING INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD ENABLE RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR +TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRIMARILY WRN KS & WRN OK
WHERE STRONG DRY LINE POSITIONED FROM EXTREME SE CO TO THE SE NM/FAR W
TX BORDER WILL PUNCH E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...WRN KS & THE OK & TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THESE
AREAS IS "SAFETY-SEALED" BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN KS & WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK
TROF STRENGTHENING FURTHER THE RESULTING INCREASED MID-UPR SW FLOW MAY
BRING SVR TSRA TO AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS
EVENING. AS UPR TROF CONTINUES IT`S TREK E (+)TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REST OF KS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING
TENNISBALL-SIZED. ON SUNDAY THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION E
COVERING NEARLY ALL OF ERN HALF OF KS. THE AMOUNT OF LWR-DECK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR IF SUFFICIENT
BACKING OCCURS THE TORNADIC THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST
THREAT. AS MID-UPR TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS SUN NGT & MON A 2ND
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-UPR CYCLONE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE TSRA TO PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SE KS...SUN
NGT & MON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WITH FOCUS ON FIRST 3 DAYS OF FORECAST...THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS IMPACTING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE BIGGER THREAT TURNS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. TIMING WITH EXPECTED TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW AND WILL DEPEND ON STORM INITIATION.
EXPECT STORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WELL INTO THE MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 87 68 86 58 / 20 40 50 40
HUTCHINSON 87 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 30
NEWTON 86 67 84 59 / 20 40 60 50
ELDORADO 86 68 85 58 / 20 40 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 69 87 56 / 20 40 60 50
RUSSELL 87 64 81 57 / 30 50 40 20
GREAT BEND 87 64 81 55 / 30 50 40 20
SALINA 87 68 85 60 / 20 50 50 40
MCPHERSON 86 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 40
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 87 64 / 10 30 60 60
CHANUTE 86 68 85 64 / 10 30 70 60
IOLA 86 68 85 63 / 10 30 80 60
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 86 64 / 10 30 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181746
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES OVER
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SUN & SUN EVENING.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE CNTRL & SRN
ROCKIES AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE NM/TX BORDER
SUN MORNING INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD ENABLE RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR +TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRIMARILY WRN KS & WRN OK
WHERE STRONG DRY LINE POSITIONED FROM EXTREME SE CO TO THE SE NM/FAR W
TX BORDER WILL PUNCH E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...WRN KS & THE OK & TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THESE
AREAS IS "SAFETY-SEALED" BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN KS & WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK
TROF STRENGTHENING FURTHER THE RESULTING INCREASED MID-UPR SW FLOW MAY
BRING SVR TSRA TO AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS
EVENING. AS UPR TROF CONTINUES IT`S TREK E (+)TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REST OF KS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING
TENNISBALL-SIZED. ON SUNDAY THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION E
COVERING NEARLY ALL OF ERN HALF OF KS. THE AMOUNT OF LWR-DECK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR IF SUFFICIENT
BACKING OCCURS THE TORNADIC THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST
THREAT. AS MID-UPR TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS SUN NGT & MON A 2ND
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-UPR CYCLONE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE TSRA TO PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SE KS...SUN
NGT & MON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WITH FOCUS ON FIRST 3 DAYS OF FORECAST...THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS IMPACTING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE BIGGER THREAT TURNS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. TIMING WITH EXPECTED TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW AND WILL DEPEND ON STORM INITIATION.
EXPECT STORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WELL INTO THE MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 87 68 86 58 / 20 40 50 40
HUTCHINSON 87 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 30
NEWTON 86 67 84 59 / 20 40 60 50
ELDORADO 86 68 85 58 / 20 40 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 69 87 56 / 20 40 60 50
RUSSELL 87 64 81 57 / 30 50 40 20
GREAT BEND 87 64 81 55 / 30 50 40 20
SALINA 87 68 85 60 / 20 50 50 40
MCPHERSON 86 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 40
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 87 64 / 10 30 60 60
CHANUTE 86 68 85 64 / 10 30 70 60
IOLA 86 68 85 63 / 10 30 80 60
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 86 64 / 10 30 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181726
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER-CELLS
WITH A FEW TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST
THIS CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPER-CELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES OVER
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SUN & SUN EVENING.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE CNTRL & SRN
ROCKIES AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE NM/TX BORDER
SUN MORNING INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD ENABLE RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR +TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRIMARILY WRN KS & WRN OK
WHERE STRONG DRY LINE POSITIONED FROM EXTREME SE CO TO THE SE NM/FAR W
TX BORDER WILL PUNCH E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...WRN KS & THE OK & TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THESE
AREAS IS "SAFETY-SEALED" BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN KS & WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK
TROF STRENGTHENING FURTHER THE RESULTING INCREASED MID-UPR SW FLOW MAY
BRING SVR TSRA TO AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS
EVENING. AS UPR TROF CONTINUES IT`S TREK E (+)TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REST OF KS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING
TENNISBALL-SIZED. ON SUNDAY THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION E
COVERING NEARLY ALL OF ERN HALF OF KS. THE AMOUNT OF LWR-DECK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR IF SUFFICIENT
BACKING OCCURS THE TORNADIC THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST
THREAT. AS MID-UPR TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS SUN NGT & MON A 2ND
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-UPR CYCLONE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE TSRA TO PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SE KS...SUN
NGT & MON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WITH FOCUS ON FIRST 3 DAYS OF FORECAST...THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR STRATUS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR EVERYWHERE BY
MIDDAY...THEN SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH LARGE HAIL/WINDS) MAY DEVELOP NEAR A DRYLINE LATE THIS PM/EVE FROM
WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWESTERN OK. A NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTION IS
INDICATED AND THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED. THEREFORE
WILL USE VCTS AT RSL...SLN...ICT...AND HUT TONIGHT.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 87 68 86 58 / 20 40 50 40
HUTCHINSON 87 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 30
NEWTON 86 67 84 59 / 20 40 60 50
ELDORADO 86 68 85 58 / 20 40 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 69 87 56 / 20 40 60 50
RUSSELL 87 64 81 57 / 30 50 40 20
GREAT BEND 87 64 81 55 / 30 50 40 20
SALINA 87 68 85 60 / 20 50 50 40
MCPHERSON 86 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 40
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 87 64 / 10 30 60 60
CHANUTE 86 68 85 64 / 10 30 70 60
IOLA 86 68 85 63 / 10 30 80 60
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 86 64 / 10 30 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181121
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES OVER
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SUN & SUN EVENING.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE CNTRL & SRN
ROCKIES AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE NM/TX BORDER
SUN MORNING INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD ENABLE RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR +TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRIMARILY WRN KS & WRN OK
WHERE STRONG DRY LINE POSITIONED FROM EXTREME SE CO TO THE SE NM/FAR W
TX BORDER WILL PUNCH E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...WRN KS & THE OK & TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THESE
AREAS IS "SAFETY-SEALED" BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN KS & WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK
TROF STRENGTHENING FURTHER THE RESULTING INCREASED MID-UPR SW FLOW MAY
BRING SVR TSRA TO AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS
EVENING. AS UPR TROF CONTINUES IT`S TREK E (+)TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REST OF KS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING
TENNISBALL-SIZED. ON SUNDAY THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION E
COVERING NEARLY ALL OF ERN HALF OF KS. THE AMOUNT OF LWR-DECK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR IF SUFFICIENT
BACKING OCCURS THE TORNADIC THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST
THREAT. AS MID-UPR TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS SUN NGT & MON A 2ND
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-UPR CYCLONE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE TSRA TO PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SE KS...SUN
NGT & MON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WITH FOCUS ON FIRST 3 DAYS OF FORECAST...THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR STRATUS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR EVERYWHERE BY
MIDDAY...THEN SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH LARGE HAIL/WINDS) MAY DEVELOP NEAR A DRYLINE LATE THIS PM/EVE FROM
WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWESTERN OK. A NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTION IS
INDICATED AND THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED. THEREFORE
WILL USE VCTS AT RSL...SLN...ICT...AND HUT TONIGHT.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 87 68 86 58 / 20 40 50 40
HUTCHINSON 87 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 30
NEWTON 86 67 84 59 / 20 40 60 50
ELDORADO 86 68 85 58 / 20 40 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 69 87 56 / 20 40 60 50
RUSSELL 87 64 81 57 / 30 50 40 20
GREAT BEND 87 64 81 55 / 30 50 40 20
SALINA 87 68 85 60 / 20 50 50 40
MCPHERSON 86 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 40
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 87 64 / 10 30 60 60
CHANUTE 86 68 85 64 / 10 30 70 60
IOLA 86 68 85 63 / 10 30 80 60
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 86 64 / 10 30 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 180907
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES OVER
MOST OF KICT COUNTRY SUN & SUN EVENING.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE CNTRL & SRN
ROCKIES AS WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE NM/TX BORDER
SUN MORNING INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD ENABLE RICH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR +TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PRIMARILY WRN KS & WRN OK
WHERE STRONG DRY LINE POSITIONED FROM EXTREME SE CO TO THE SE NM/FAR W
TX BORDER WILL PUNCH E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...WRN KS & THE OK & TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THESE
AREAS IS "SAFETY-SEALED" BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
WRN KS & WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK
TROF STRENGTHENING FURTHER THE RESULTING INCREASED MID-UPR SW FLOW MAY
BRING SVR TSRA TO AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS
EVENING. AS UPR TROF CONTINUES IT`S TREK E (+)TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS REST OF KS WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING
TENNISBALL-SIZED. ON SUNDAY THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION E
COVERING NEARLY ALL OF ERN HALF OF KS. THE AMOUNT OF LWR-DECK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR IF SUFFICIENT
BACKING OCCURS THE TORNADIC THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST
THREAT. AS MID-UPR TROF UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS SUN NGT & MON A 2ND
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-UPR CYCLONE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE TSRA TO PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SE KS...SUN
NGT & MON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
WITH FOCUS ON FIRST 3 DAYS OF FORECAST...THE INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT KINGMAN AND WELLINGTON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN 06-08Z POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...ESPECIALLY FOR KHUT-
KRSL AS THEY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CIGS BY
AROUND 15Z ON SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 87 68 86 58 / 20 40 50 40
HUTCHINSON 87 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 30
NEWTON 86 67 84 59 / 20 40 60 50
ELDORADO 86 68 85 58 / 20 40 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 88 69 87 56 / 20 40 60 50
RUSSELL 87 64 81 57 / 30 50 40 20
GREAT BEND 87 64 81 55 / 30 50 40 20
SALINA 87 68 85 60 / 20 50 50 40
MCPHERSON 86 67 84 58 / 20 40 50 40
COFFEYVILLE 87 70 87 64 / 10 30 60 60
CHANUTE 86 68 85 64 / 10 30 70 60
IOLA 86 68 85 63 / 10 30 80 60
PARSONS-KPPF 87 70 86 64 / 10 30 70 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 180517
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1217 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER 3-4AM ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE-FAVORED REGIONS WEST OF I-135. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.
THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT-SAT MORNING
WILL BE SMALL...DUE TO STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAWN AS MODEST 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER
NAM...PARCELS LIFTING FROM NEAR 800MB MAY ONLY BE WEAKLY/MODESTLY
CAPPED...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...ACTING TO SHARPEN
AND BULGE A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS. CONSEQUENTLY...IF THE CAP CAN
BE BREACHED...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 4PM. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY (OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY REMAIN SEVERE DURING THE EVENING? THINKING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...AS *STOUT*
CAPPING WILL LIKELY DISCOURAGE PROGRESSION MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN
THAT.
PER NAM/ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST...SHIFTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS A
2ND A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...1) VEERED OUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...2) SQUIRRELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND 3)
GREATEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE OVER OKLAHOMA. GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WITH BETTER MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS...WHILE NAM IS THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THIS DISAGREEMENT...DO NOT WANT TO
OVERHYPE...BUT WANT TO STRESS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER-END
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY STALLS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
FRONT.
A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR EARLY-MID WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN 70S TO LOW 80S.
SUSPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION BY MID/LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH RETURN 850-700MB FLOW MAY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT KINGMAN AND WELLINGTON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN 06-08Z POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...ESPECIALLY FOR KHUT-
KRSL AS THEY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CIGS BY
AROUND 15Z ON SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 86 60 82 / 20 50 40 40
HUTCHINSON 68 85 59 81 / 30 40 30 30
NEWTON 68 85 59 80 / 20 50 50 30
ELDORADO 69 85 60 81 / 20 50 60 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 69 87 63 83 / 20 50 50 40
RUSSELL 66 83 56 79 / 40 30 20 20
GREAT BEND 65 83 56 79 / 40 30 20 20
SALINA 69 85 59 81 / 20 40 40 20
MCPHERSON 68 85 59 80 / 20 40 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 70 87 65 83 / 20 50 60 50
CHANUTE 70 85 64 82 / 20 50 60 50
IOLA 69 84 64 82 / 20 50 60 50
PARSONS-KPPF 70 85 65 82 / 20 50 60 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 172325
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER 3-4AM ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE-FAVORED REGIONS WEST OF I-135. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.
THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT-SAT MORNING
WILL BE SMALL...DUE TO STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAWN AS MODEST 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER
NAM...PARCELS LIFTING FROM NEAR 800MB MAY ONLY BE WEAKLY/MODESTLY
CAPPED...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...ACTING TO SHARPEN
AND BULGE A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS. CONSEQUENTLY...IF THE CAP CAN
BE BREACHED...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 4PM. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY (OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY REMAIN SEVERE DURING THE EVENING? THINKING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...AS *STOUT*
CAPPING WILL LIKELY DISCOURAGE PROGRESSION MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN
THAT.
PER NAM/ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST...SHIFTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS A
2ND A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...1) VEERED OUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...2) SQUIRRELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND 3)
GREATEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE OVER OKLAHOMA. GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WITH BETTER MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS...WHILE NAM IS THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THIS DISAGREEMENT...DO NOT WANT TO
OVERHYPE...BUT WANT TO STRESS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER-END
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY STALLS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
FRONT.
A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR EARLY-MID WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN 70S TO LOW 80S.
SUSPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION BY MID/LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH RETURN 850-700MB FLOW MAY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SLOWLY NORTH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 07-09Z
TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY ARRIVE BETWEEN 05-07Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CIGS BY
AROUND 15Z ON SAT.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 87 69 86 / 10 10 20 50
HUTCHINSON 66 87 68 85 / 10 20 30 40
NEWTON 66 86 68 85 / 10 10 20 50
ELDORADO 65 86 69 85 / 10 10 20 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 88 69 87 / 10 10 20 50
RUSSELL 64 88 66 83 / 10 30 40 30
GREAT BEND 65 88 65 83 / 10 30 40 30
SALINA 64 87 69 85 / 10 10 20 40
MCPHERSON 65 87 68 85 / 10 10 20 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 86 70 87 / 10 10 20 50
CHANUTE 63 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 50
IOLA 63 86 69 84 / 10 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 64 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 172038
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER 3-4AM ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE-FAVORED REGIONS WEST OF I-135. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.
THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT-SAT MORNING
WILL BE SMALL...DUE TO STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAWN AS MODEST 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER
NAM...PARCELS LIFTING FROM NEAR 800MB MAY ONLY BE WEAKLY/MODESTLY
CAPPED...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...ACTING TO SHARPEN
AND BULGE A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS. CONSEQUENTLY...IF THE CAP CAN
BE BREACHED...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 4PM. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY (OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY REMAIN SEVERE DURING THE EVENING? THINKING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...AS *STOUT*
CAPPING WILL LIKELY DISCOURAGE PROGRESSION MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN
THAT.
PER NAM/ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST...SHIFTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS A
2ND A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...1) VEERED OUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...2) SQUIRRELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND 3)
GREATEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE OVER OKLAHOMA. GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WITH BETTER MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS...WHILE NAM IS THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THIS DISAGREEMENT...DO NOT WANT TO
OVERHYPE...BUT WANT TO STRESS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER-END
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ADK
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY STALLS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
FRONT.
A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR EARLY-MID WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN 70S TO LOW 80S.
SUSPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION BY MID/LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH RETURN 850-700MB FLOW MAY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WHILE STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR. FOR NOW
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH BETTER POTENTIAL STAYING WEST OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY AND MORE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 66 87 69 86 / 10 10 20 50
HUTCHINSON 66 87 68 85 / 10 20 30 40
NEWTON 66 86 68 85 / 10 10 20 50
ELDORADO 65 86 69 85 / 10 10 20 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 67 88 69 87 / 10 10 20 50
RUSSELL 64 88 66 83 / 10 30 40 30
GREAT BEND 65 88 65 83 / 10 40 40 30
SALINA 64 87 69 85 / 10 10 20 40
MCPHERSON 65 87 68 85 / 10 10 20 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 86 70 87 / 10 10 20 50
CHANUTE 63 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 50
IOLA 63 86 69 84 / 10 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 64 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 171708
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERLOOKED LOCALLY +FG OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE KS WHERE KCFV & KCNU
ARE REPORTING +1/4SM. CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING +FG ADVISORY FOR TIME
BEING BUT THIS FACET OF FORECAST WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. STILL
ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION ~9AM. CORRECTED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.
UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGRESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WHILE STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR. FOR NOW
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH BETTER POTENTIAL STAYING WEST OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY AND MORE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 67 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 85 67 85 67 / 10 10 20 30
NEWTON 83 66 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
ELDORADO 82 67 86 69 / 10 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 67 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELL 86 68 88 65 / 10 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 86 70 88 64 / 10 20 20 30
SALINA 84 65 87 69 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 66 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 65 87 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 81 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 80 65 85 71 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 81 65 86 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 171106
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERLOOKED LOCALLY +FG OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE KS WHERE KCFV & KCNU
ARE REPORTING +1/4SM. CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING +FG ADVISORY FOR TIME
BEING BUT THIS FACET OF FORECAST WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. STILL
ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION ~9AM. CORRECTED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.
UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO AREAS
OF LIFR DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO IFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 67 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 85 67 85 67 / 10 10 20 30
NEWTON 83 66 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
ELDORADO 82 67 86 69 / 10 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 67 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELL 86 68 88 65 / 10 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 86 70 88 64 / 10 20 20 30
SALINA 84 65 87 69 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 66 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 65 87 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 81 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 80 65 85 71 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 81 65 86 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 170921
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
421 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERLOOKED LOCALLY +FG OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE KS WHERE KCFV & KCNU
ARE REPORTING +1/4SM. CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING +FG ADVISORY FOR TIME
BEING BUT THIS FACET OF FORECAST WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. STILL
ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION ~9AM. CORRECTED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.
UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT STILL THINKING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z ACROSS MOST AREAS. DID TEMPO SOME IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. IF
THEY ARE LIKE LAST NIGHT THEY WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SITES DROP TO LESS
THAN 2SM AT TIMES EARLY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 16Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 67 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 85 67 85 67 / 10 10 20 30
NEWTON 83 66 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
ELDORADO 82 67 86 69 / 10 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 67 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELL 86 68 88 65 / 10 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 86 70 88 64 / 10 20 20 30
SALINA 84 65 87 69 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 66 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 65 87 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 81 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 80 65 85 71 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 81 65 86 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 170917
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.CORRECTION TO SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERLOOKED PATCHY +FOG OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE KS WHERE KCFV & KCNU
ARE REPORTING 1/4SM +FOG. CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING +FOG ADVISORY FOR
TIME BEING BUT THIS ASPECT OF FCST IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. STILL
EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ~9AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.
UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT STILL THINKING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z ACROSS MOST AREAS. DID TEMPO SOME IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. IF
THEY ARE LIKE LAST NIGHT THEY WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SITES DROP TO LESS
THAN 2SM AT TIMES EARLY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 16Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 67 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 85 67 85 67 / 10 10 20 30
NEWTON 83 66 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
ELDORADO 82 67 86 69 / 10 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 67 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELL 86 68 88 65 / 10 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 86 70 88 64 / 10 20 20 30
SALINA 84 65 87 69 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 66 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 65 87 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 81 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 80 65 85 71 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 81 65 86 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS63 KICT 170853
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.
UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT STILL THINKING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z ACROSS MOST AREAS. DID TEMPO SOME IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. IF
THEY ARE LIKE LAST NIGHT THEY WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SITES DROP TO LESS
THAN 2SM AT TIMES EARLY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 16Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 67 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 85 67 85 67 / 10 10 20 30
NEWTON 83 66 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
ELDORADO 82 67 86 69 / 10 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 67 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELL 86 68 88 65 / 10 10 20 30
GREAT BEND 86 70 88 64 / 10 20 20 30
SALINA 84 65 87 69 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 66 86 68 / 10 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 65 87 70 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 81 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 80 65 85 71 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 81 65 86 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS63 KICT 170435
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KS. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING THE WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE...FEEL IT SHOULD AFFECT AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OVER
CENTRAL KS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A GUST TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
TONIGHT: UPPER LOW IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS OVER ERN OK AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE LEADING TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO. THINK MOST
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE OR END AFTER SUNSET..BUT COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS TRY AND SNEAK INTO SE KS BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135 WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
LOCATED.
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION THREAT WELL TO THE NW OF
THE AREA OVER NW KS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MIGHT FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIFTS EAST
LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON FRI. CURRENT MESOSCALE HRR-3KM
SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARDS CEN KS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RUN INTO A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AS IT
MOVES ALONG I-70. BUT THINK ONLY SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT
AS IT MOVES INTO CEN KS...SO WILL GO WITH A SMALL POP FOR NOW...WITH
A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG CAP.
FRI-SAT: THE MAIN STORY FOR FRI/SAT...WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING
KEEPING A LID ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHERE VERY WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE
A FEW STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE DRYLINE AND TRY TO MAKE IT INTO CEN
KS LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO...THE MORE CAPPED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME. SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MAKE IT TOO
FAR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING RICH
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-MON: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR SUN. AND EVEN
FURTHER EAST FOR MON.
SO THE END OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PERIOD...AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THIS
DRYLINE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KTS ON
SUN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED ROTATING
STORMS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON
SUN WILL BE WARM TEMPS ALOFT CAPPING OFF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT
THINK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE
CAP ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...WHILE THE
GFS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING SUN AFTN/EVE...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE POSSIBLE....EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THIS MAY BE OF GREATER
CONCERN FOR SUN AFTN...AS QUITE A FEW OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
GRADUATION CEREMONIES MAY BE ONGOING OR PLANNED.
SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR MON...WITH
MOST OF ERN KS UNDER THE GUN AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SW MO. BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WEATHER ON MON
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SE KS AND OK...BUT UNSTABLE AND
BULK SHEAR STILL SUGGESTS ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY AS WELL.
REST OF THE EXTENDED: EXPECT DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS TO
MOVE IN FOR TUE INTO WED. SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
NICE DAYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU....WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FOR THE SRN HALF OF KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT STILL THINKING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER GENERALLY
AFTER 09Z ACROSS MOST AREAS. DID TEMPO SOME IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. IF
THEY ARE LIKE LAST NIGHT THEY WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SITES DROP TO LESS
THAN 2SM AT TIMES EARLY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 16Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 64 82 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 63 83 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 64 81 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 64 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 81 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 62 84 65 90 / 70 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 63 83 65 91 / 50 10 10 10
SALINA 63 84 67 87 / 30 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 62 83 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 82 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 170204
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
904 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KS. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING THE WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE...FEEL IT SHOULD AFFECT AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OVER
CENTRAL KS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A GUST TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
TONIGHT: UPPER LOW IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS OVER ERN OK AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE LEADING TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO. THINK MOST
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE OR END AFTER SUNSET..BUT COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS TRY AND SNEAK INTO SE KS BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135 WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
LOCATED.
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION THREAT WELL TO THE NW OF
THE AREA OVER NW KS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MIGHT FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIFTS EAST
LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON FRI. CURRENT MESOSCALE HRR-3KM
SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARDS CEN KS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RUN INTO A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AS IT
MOVES ALONG I-70. BUT THINK ONLY SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT
AS IT MOVES INTO CEN KS...SO WILL GO WITH A SMALL POP FOR NOW...WITH
A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG CAP.
FRI-SAT: THE MAIN STORY FOR FRI/SAT...WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING
KEEPING A LID ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHERE VERY WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE
A FEW STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE DRYLINE AND TRY TO MAKE IT INTO CEN
KS LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO...THE MORE CAPPED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME. SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MAKE IT TOO
FAR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING RICH
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-MON: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR SUN. AND EVEN
FURTHER EAST FOR MON.
SO THE END OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PERIOD...AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THIS
DRYLINE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KTS ON
SUN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED ROTATING
STORMS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON
SUN WILL BE WARM TEMPS ALOFT CAPPING OFF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT
THINK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE
CAP ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...WHILE THE
GFS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING SUN AFTN/EVE...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE POSSIBLE....EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THIS MAY BE OF GREATER
CONCERN FOR SUN AFTN...AS QUITE A FEW OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
GRADUATION CEREMONIES MAY BE ONGOING OR PLANNED.
SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR MON...WITH
MOST OF ERN KS UNDER THE GUN AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SW MO. BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WEATHER ON MON
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SE KS AND OK...BUT UNSTABLE AND
BULK SHEAR STILL SUGGESTS ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY AS WELL.
REST OF THE EXTENDED: EXPECT DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS TO
MOVE IN FOR TUE INTO WED. SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
NICE DAYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU....WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FOR THE SRN HALF OF KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CIGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS THE COLUMN COOLS
TONIGHT...LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. WILL RUN WITH
IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON HOW DENSE THE FOG
WILL BE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER MANY SITES SAW DENSE FOG LAST
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER AND MAY HANDLE WITH A TEMPO WITH THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. THESE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT AROUND 15Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 64 82 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 63 83 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 64 81 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 64 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 81 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 62 84 65 90 / 70 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 63 83 65 91 / 50 10 10 10
SALINA 63 84 67 87 / 30 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 62 83 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 82 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 170007
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
TONIGHT: UPPER LOW IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS OVER ERN OK AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE LEADING TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO. THINK MOST
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE OR END AFTER SUNSET..BUT COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS TRY AND SNEAK INTO SE KS BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135 WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
LOCATED.
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION THREAT WELL TO THE NW OF
THE AREA OVER NW KS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MIGHT FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIFTS EAST
LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON FRI. CURRENT MESOSCALE HRR-3KM
SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARDS CEN KS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RUN INTO A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AS IT
MOVES ALONG I-70. BUT THINK ONLY SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT
AS IT MOVES INTO CEN KS...SO WILL GO WITH A SMALL POP FOR NOW...WITH
A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG CAP.
FRI-SAT: THE MAIN STORY FOR FRI/SAT...WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING
KEEPING A LID ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHERE VERY WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE
A FEW STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE DRYLINE AND TRY TO MAKE IT INTO CEN
KS LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO...THE MORE CAPPED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME. SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MAKE IT TOO
FAR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING RICH
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-MON: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR SUN. AND EVEN
FURTHER EAST FOR MON.
SO THE END OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PERIOD...AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THIS
DRYLINE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KTS ON
SUN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED ROTATING
STORMS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON
SUN WILL BE WARM TEMPS ALOFT CAPPING OFF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT
THINK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE
CAP ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...WHILE THE
GFS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING SUN AFTN/EVE...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE POSSIBLE....EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THIS MAY BE OF GREATER
CONCERN FOR SUN AFTN...AS QUITE A FEW OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
GRADUATION CEREMONIES MAY BE ONGOING OR PLANNED.
SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR MON...WITH
MOST OF ERN KS UNDER THE GUN AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SW MO. BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WEATHER ON MON
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SE KS AND OK...BUT UNSTABLE AND
BULK SHEAR STILL SUGGESTS ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY AS WELL.
REST OF THE EXTENDED: EXPECT DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS TO
MOVE IN FOR TUE INTO WED. SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
NICE DAYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU....WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FOR THE SRN HALF OF KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CIGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS THE COLUMN COOLS
TONIGHT...LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. WILL RUN WITH
IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON HOW DENSE THE FOG
WILL BE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER MANY SITES SAW DENSE FOG LAST
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER AND MAY HANDLE WITH A TEMPO WITH THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. THESE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT AROUND 15Z.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 64 82 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 63 83 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 64 81 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 64 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 81 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 62 84 65 90 / 30 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 63 83 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 63 84 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 62 83 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 82 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 162040
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUN/MON.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
TONIGHT: UPPER LOW IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS OVER ERN OK AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE LEADING TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO. THINK MOST
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE OR END AFTER SUNSET..BUT COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS TRY AND SNEAK INTO SE KS BEFORE SUNSET. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135 WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
LOCATED.
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION THREAT WELL TO THE NW OF
THE AREA OVER NW KS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION MIGHT FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIFTS EAST
LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON FRI. CURRENT MESOSCALE HRR-3KM
SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MOVE TOWARDS CEN KS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL RUN INTO A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AS IT
MOVES ALONG I-70. BUT THINK ONLY SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT
AS IT MOVES INTO CEN KS...SO WILL GO WITH A SMALL POP FOR NOW...WITH
A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG CAP.
FRI-SAT: THE MAIN STORY FOR FRI/SAT...WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING
KEEPING A LID ON ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHERE VERY WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE
A FEW STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE DRYLINE AND TRY TO MAKE IT INTO CEN
KS LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO...THE MORE CAPPED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME. SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MAKE IT TOO
FAR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING RICH
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-MON: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME PROGRESS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR SUN. AND EVEN
FURTHER EAST FOR MON.
SO THE END OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PERIOD...AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THIS
DRYLINE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 55-65 KTS ON
SUN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED ROTATING
STORMS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON
SUN WILL BE WARM TEMPS ALOFT CAPPING OFF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT
THINK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE
CAP ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...WHILE THE
GFS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING SUN AFTN/EVE...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE POSSIBLE....EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THIS MAY BE OF GREATER
CONCERN FOR SUN AFTN...AS QUITE A FEW OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
GRADUATION CEREMONIES MAY BE ONGOING OR PLANNED.
SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR MON...WITH
MOST OF ERN KS UNDER THE GUN AS ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SW MO. BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WEATHER ON MON
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SE KS AND OK...BUT UNSTABLE AND
BULK SHEAR STILL SUGGESTS ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY AS WELL.
REST OF THE EXTENDED: EXPECT DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS TO
MOVE IN FOR TUE INTO WED. SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
NICE DAYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU....WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN OF STORM CHANCES FOR THE SRN HALF OF KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HIT-AND-
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR KCNU AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FOR ALL TAF SITES...DUE TO A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONLY WENT WITH 4SM BR
SCT009 AS A STARTING POINT FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LATER SHIFTS TO
GRADUALLY DETERIOATE THESE CONDITIONS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 64 82 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 63 83 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 64 81 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 64 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 81 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 62 84 65 90 / 20 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 63 83 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 63 84 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 62 83 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 82 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 66 81 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 161802
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
SENDING A FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING FOG MENTION. THINKING
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION...WITH RICHER
MOISTURE AND DENSE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALSO...A
FEW HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR/INSTABILITY.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TODAY THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FAVORED WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAPPING RICHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IF THE WAVE COMES OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY THEN THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST...AFFECTING FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BUT IF IT SLOWS DOWN THEN THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE TOWARDS
CENTRAL KANSAS. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOOK A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH ALL THE INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER FOR A FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. OTHERWISE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH COULD SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY. COOLER DRIER AIR TO
FOLLOW AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
JAKUB
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HIT-AND-
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR KCNU AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FOR ALL TAF SITES...DUE TO A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONLY WENT WITH 4SM BR
SCT009 AS A STARTING POINT FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LATER SHIFTS TO
GRADUALLY DETERIOATE THESE CONDITIONS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 64 82 67 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 79 63 83 66 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 78 64 81 66 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 78 64 81 67 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 66 81 67 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 81 62 84 65 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 81 63 83 65 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 81 63 84 67 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 80 62 83 66 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 77 65 82 68 / 30 10 10 10
CHANUTE 76 66 81 67 / 20 10 10 10
IOLA 76 66 81 67 / 20 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 65 81 67 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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