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000
FXUS63 KICT 020429
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO TSRA AT CNU TERMINAL WHERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER...AND A VCTS AT ICT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY AM MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK FLOW AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL FRONT IN AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT NIGHT EXPECTED WHEN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  71  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  72  94 /  70  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  80  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  60  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  72  92 /  80  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 020429
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO TSRA AT CNU TERMINAL WHERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER...AND A VCTS AT ICT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY AM MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK FLOW AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL FRONT IN AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT NIGHT EXPECTED WHEN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  71  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  72  94 /  70  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  80  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  60  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  72  92 /  80  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 012313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY TEMPO TSRA AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THIS
EVE...WITH NO THUNDER MENTION FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY 06Z. OTHER ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING. WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FAIRLY HIGH IN MOST OF THE AREA...AREAS OF
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  71  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  72  94 /  50  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  60  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 012313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY TEMPO TSRA AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THIS
EVE...WITH NO THUNDER MENTION FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY 06Z. OTHER ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING. WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FAIRLY HIGH IN MOST OF THE AREA...AREAS OF
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  71  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  72  94 /  50  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  60  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 011936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.
MOST OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS LOCATED IN AND AROUND A WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THINK THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY RISE SOME AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VFR CIGS STAY
AROUND.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AND
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT...AS IT DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK THE PREDOMINATE AREA OF TSRA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLAN ON GOING WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THIS TAF AS WELL...LATER THIS EVENING...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN
OVER THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THINK INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST
SOUTH OF KICT...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP
WITHIN 25 MILES OF KICT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF AS
WELL FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  70  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  72  94 /  60  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  70  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  71  92 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 011936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.
MOST OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS LOCATED IN AND AROUND A WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THINK THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY RISE SOME AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VFR CIGS STAY
AROUND.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AND
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT...AS IT DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK THE PREDOMINATE AREA OF TSRA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLAN ON GOING WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THIS TAF AS WELL...LATER THIS EVENING...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN
OVER THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THINK INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST
SOUTH OF KICT...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP
WITHIN 25 MILES OF KICT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF AS
WELL FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  70  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  72  94 /  60  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  70  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  71  92 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ERN OK AT THIS TIME...BUT A
PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK TO THE NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES.
LOTS OF MESOSCALE CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL RECOVER
OVER SE/SRN KS GIVEN THE CURRENT BUBBLE HIGH IN THIS AREA...AS THE
WEAK MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO SRN
KS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THINK THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KICT NEAR KWLD AND FOR AREAS SE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF KICT ARE ALREADY IN THE 2500 J/KG
RANGE...WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER LIFTING BACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO AREAS S-SE OF KICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BULK SHEAR OF 60
KTS...SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
JUST SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH
LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE
MAIN CONCERN. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INTRIGUING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE E-SE...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FAIRLY DECENT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FOR A
POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT FOR A STORM THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE  BOUNDARY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  0-8KM SHEAR DOESNT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LONG LIVED TORNADO...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHORT LIVED ONE.

AS THE LATE EVENING WEARS ON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND CHANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THIS CHANCE
WILL BE EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS WELL...BUT COULD INITIALLY EXTEND
BACK AS FAR WEST AS KICT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.
MOST OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS LOCATED IN AND AROUND A WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THINK THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY RISE SOME AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VFR CIGS STAY
AROUND.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AND
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT...AS IT DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK THE PREDOMINATE AREA OF TSRA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLAN ON GOING WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THIS TAF AS WELL...LATER THIS EVENING...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN
OVER THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THINK INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST
SOUTH OF KICT...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP
WITHIN 25 MILES OF KICT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF AS
WELL FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  40  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  66  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  66  89  70 /  20  30  30  30
ELDORADO        93  68  90  70 /  30  40  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  90  72 /  40  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  62  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  63  89  69 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          90  64  90  71 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  65  89  70 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  70  90  72 /  50  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  69  89  70 /  80  70  40  40
IOLA            91  68  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 011752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ERN OK AT THIS TIME...BUT A
PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK TO THE NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES.
LOTS OF MESOSCALE CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL RECOVER
OVER SE/SRN KS GIVEN THE CURRENT BUBBLE HIGH IN THIS AREA...AS THE
WEAK MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO SRN
KS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THINK THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KICT NEAR KWLD AND FOR AREAS SE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF KICT ARE ALREADY IN THE 2500 J/KG
RANGE...WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER LIFTING BACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO AREAS S-SE OF KICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BULK SHEAR OF 60
KTS...SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
JUST SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH
LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE
MAIN CONCERN. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INTRIGUING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE E-SE...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FAIRLY DECENT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FOR A
POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT FOR A STORM THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE  BOUNDARY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  0-8KM SHEAR DOESNT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LONG LIVED TORNADO...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHORT LIVED ONE.

AS THE LATE EVENING WEARS ON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND CHANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THIS CHANCE
WILL BE EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS WELL...BUT COULD INITIALLY EXTEND
BACK AS FAR WEST AS KICT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.
MOST OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS LOCATED IN AND AROUND A WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THINK THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY RISE SOME AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VFR CIGS STAY
AROUND.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AND
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT...AS IT DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK THE PREDOMINATE AREA OF TSRA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLAN ON GOING WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THIS TAF AS WELL...LATER THIS EVENING...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN
OVER THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THINK INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST
SOUTH OF KICT...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP
WITHIN 25 MILES OF KICT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF AS
WELL FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  40  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  66  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  66  89  70 /  20  30  30  30
ELDORADO        93  68  90  70 /  30  40  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  90  72 /  40  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  62  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  63  89  69 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          90  64  90  71 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  65  89  70 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  70  90  72 /  50  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  69  89  70 /  80  70  40  40
IOLA            91  68  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1044 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ERN OK AT THIS TIME...BUT A
PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK TO THE NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES.
LOTS OF MESOSCALE CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL RECOVER
OVER SE/SRN KS GIVEN THE CURRENT BUBBLE HIGH IN THIS AREA...AS THE
WEAK MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO SRN
KS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THINK THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KICT NEAR KWLD AND FOR AREAS SE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF KICT ARE ALREADY IN THE 2500 J/KG
RANGE...WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER LIFTING BACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO AREAS S-SE OF KICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BULK SHEAR OF 60
KTS...SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
JUST SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH
LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE
MAIN CONCERN. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INTRIGUING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE E-SE...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FAIRLY DECENT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FOR A
POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT FOR A STORM THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE  BOUNDARY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  0-8KM SHEAR DOESNT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LONG LIVED TORNADO...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHORT LIVED ONE.

AS THE LATE EVENING WEARS ON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND CHANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THIS CHANCE
WILL BE EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS WELL...BUT COULD INITIALLY EXTEND
BACK AS FAR WEST AS KICT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSLN/KRSL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AT KCNU WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
SOME BREAK AROUND MIDDAY. RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT KCNU
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. FOR KICT AND KHUT...PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE AT KICT WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
NEAR END OF FORECAST. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR...COULD SEE
MVFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  20  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  80  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1044 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ERN OK AT THIS TIME...BUT A
PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK TO THE NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES.
LOTS OF MESOSCALE CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME
QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL RECOVER
OVER SE/SRN KS GIVEN THE CURRENT BUBBLE HIGH IN THIS AREA...AS THE
WEAK MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO SRN
KS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THINK THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KICT NEAR KWLD AND FOR AREAS SE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF KICT ARE ALREADY IN THE 2500 J/KG
RANGE...WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER LIFTING BACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO AREAS S-SE OF KICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BULK SHEAR OF 60
KTS...SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
JUST SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH
LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE
MAIN CONCERN. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INTRIGUING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE E-SE...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FAIRLY DECENT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FOR A
POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT FOR A STORM THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE  BOUNDARY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  0-8KM SHEAR DOESNT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LONG LIVED TORNADO...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHORT LIVED ONE.

AS THE LATE EVENING WEARS ON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND CHANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THIS CHANCE
WILL BE EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS WELL...BUT COULD INITIALLY EXTEND
BACK AS FAR WEST AS KICT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSLN/KRSL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AT KCNU WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
SOME BREAK AROUND MIDDAY. RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT KCNU
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. FOR KICT AND KHUT...PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE AT KICT WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
NEAR END OF FORECAST. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR...COULD SEE
MVFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  20  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  80  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 011152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSLN/KRSL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AT KCNU WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
SOME BREAK AROUND MIDDAY. RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT KCNU
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. FOR KICT AND KHUT...PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE AT KICT WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
NEAR END OF FORECAST. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR...COULD SEE
MVFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  20  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  80  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSLN/KRSL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AT KCNU WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
SOME BREAK AROUND MIDDAY. RENEWED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT KCNU
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. FOR KICT AND KHUT...PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE AT KICT WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
NEAR END OF FORECAST. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR...COULD SEE
MVFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  20  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  80  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 010825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  60  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  70  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 010447
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  90  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  80  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  60  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  80  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  80  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 / 100  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 / 100  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  70  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 / 100  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 312302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RSL...SLN...AND POSSIBLY HUT TERMINALS THROUGH 04-06 UTC. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SINK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  70  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  90  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 312302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RSL...SLN...AND POSSIBLY HUT TERMINALS THROUGH 04-06 UTC. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SINK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  70  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  90  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 312009
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

CWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  40  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  40  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  50  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  70  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 312009
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

CWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  40  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  40  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  50  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  70  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 311736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  20  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  40  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  70  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  40  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 311736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  20  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  40  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  70  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  40  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 311141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT
KSLN THROUGH 15Z OR SO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW/POOLING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
08-10Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 311141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT
KSLN THROUGH 15Z OR SO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW/POOLING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
08-10Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 310439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 310439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 302348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KS. WILL
MAINTAIN A VCTS AT RSL FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LEE CYCLONE WILL
STEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE STEEP MIXING
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUN PM FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS...HOWEVER IF THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES CENTRAL KS...IT SHOULD BE LATER SUN EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 302348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KS. WILL
MAINTAIN A VCTS AT RSL FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LEE CYCLONE WILL
STEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE STEEP MIXING
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUN PM FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS...HOWEVER IF THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES CENTRAL KS...IT SHOULD BE LATER SUN EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 301955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 301725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /   0  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /   0  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 301132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS IMPACTING THE KHUT AND KICT AREAS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z OR SOONER. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN
ISOLATED STORM MAY DRIFT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /  10  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /  10  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS IMPACTING THE KHUT AND KICT AREAS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z OR SOONER. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN
ISOLATED STORM MAY DRIFT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /  10  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /  10  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 300843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS OF THIS ISSUANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE IMPACTING
THE KICT TERMINAL. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LASTING...BUT
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AND VICINITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. KCNU COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH VARIABLE WINDS
AT KHUT/KICT AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT KRSL/KSLN BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AT THE LATER TWO SITES.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KICT/KCNU EARLY THIS EVENING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /  10  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /  10  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KICT 300843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS OF THIS ISSUANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE IMPACTING
THE KICT TERMINAL. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LASTING...BUT
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AND VICINITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. KCNU COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH VARIABLE WINDS
AT KHUT/KICT AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT KRSL/KSLN BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AT THE LATER TWO SITES.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KICT/KCNU EARLY THIS EVENING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /  10  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /  10  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










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