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000
FXUS63 KICT 211131
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO A
REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED RADATIONAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290K) MAY YIELD AREAS
OF DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 40S TODAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND DEEP
LIFT/MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN A 15-30% LIGHT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN
0.10 INCH. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S VIA NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND STEEP SURFACE-750 MB LAPSE RATES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION VIA BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WITH
A LESS AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
A 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO ABOVE SEASONAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

ONCE AGAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
IFR/LIFR CIGS BLANKET MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  41  52  32 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      46  40  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  41  51  30 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        46  42  52  32 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  43  52  34 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         47  36  49  28 /   0  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  36  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          46  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  44  53  36 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            47  43  51  34 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 211131
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO A
REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED RADATIONAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290K) MAY YIELD AREAS
OF DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 40S TODAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND DEEP
LIFT/MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN A 15-30% LIGHT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN
0.10 INCH. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S VIA NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND STEEP SURFACE-750 MB LAPSE RATES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION VIA BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WITH
A LESS AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
A 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO ABOVE SEASONAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

ONCE AGAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
IFR/LIFR CIGS BLANKET MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  41  52  32 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      46  40  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  41  51  30 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        46  42  52  32 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  43  52  34 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         47  36  49  28 /   0  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  36  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          46  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  44  53  36 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            47  43  51  34 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 210852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO A
REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED RADATIONAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290K) MAY YIELD AREAS
OF DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 40S TODAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND DEEP
LIFT/MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN A 15-30% LIGHT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN
0.10 INCH. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S VIA NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND STEEP SURFACE-750 MB LAPSE RATES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION VIA BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WITH
A LESS AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
A 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO ABOVE SEASONAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH WILL KEE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIFR CEILINGS
QUICKLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER WESTERN OK. FEEL THAT AS THIS AREA OF
LOWER CIGS EXPANDS EAST...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY 09Z.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 COULD SEE SOME
LIFR CEILINGS. WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 08-11KT
RANGE...WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG IF WE WERE
ADVECTING RICH DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ONLY LOOK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 2-4SM BR AND IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  41  52  32 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      46  40  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  41  51  30 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        46  42  52  32 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  43  52  34 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         47  36  49  28 /   0  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  36  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          46  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  44  53  36 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            47  43  51  34 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 210852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO A
REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED RADATIONAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290K) MAY YIELD AREAS
OF DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 40S TODAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND DEEP
LIFT/MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN A 15-30% LIGHT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN
0.10 INCH. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S VIA NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND STEEP SURFACE-750 MB LAPSE RATES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION VIA BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WITH
A LESS AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
A 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO ABOVE SEASONAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH WILL KEE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIFR CEILINGS
QUICKLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER WESTERN OK. FEEL THAT AS THIS AREA OF
LOWER CIGS EXPANDS EAST...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY 09Z.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 COULD SEE SOME
LIFR CEILINGS. WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 08-11KT
RANGE...WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG IF WE WERE
ADVECTING RICH DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ONLY LOOK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 2-4SM BR AND IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  41  52  32 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      46  40  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  41  51  30 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        46  42  52  32 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  43  52  34 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         47  36  49  28 /   0  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  36  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          46  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  44  53  36 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            47  43  51  34 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 210537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH WILL KEE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIFR CEILINGS
QUICKLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER WESTERN OK. FEEL THAT AS THIS AREA OF
LOWER CIGS EXPANDS EAST...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY 09Z.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 COULD SEE SOME
LIFR CEILINGS. WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 08-11KT
RANGE...WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG IF WE WERE
ADVECTING RICH DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ONLY LOOK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 2-4SM BR AND IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          35  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        35  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          33  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       34  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         33  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            33  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    35  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 210537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH WILL KEE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIFR CEILINGS
QUICKLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER WESTERN OK. FEEL THAT AS THIS AREA OF
LOWER CIGS EXPANDS EAST...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY 09Z.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 COULD SEE SOME
LIFR CEILINGS. WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 08-11KT
RANGE...WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG IF WE WERE
ADVECTING RICH DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ONLY LOOK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 2-4SM BR AND IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          35  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        35  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          33  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       34  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         33  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            33  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    35  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 202356
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS THE LAST FEW HOURS AND AM EXPECTING
THIS AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SOME FOG IS HIGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-4SM
RANGE...CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT THAT HIGH. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE BEST SHOT AT LESS THAN 2SM WILL BE WEST OF I-135. SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-135.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          36  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        36  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          35  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       35  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     37  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         35  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            35  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    36  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 202356
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS THE LAST FEW HOURS AND AM EXPECTING
THIS AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SOME FOG IS HIGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-4SM
RANGE...CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT THAT HIGH. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE BEST SHOT AT LESS THAN 2SM WILL BE WEST OF I-135. SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-135.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          36  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        36  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          35  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       35  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     37  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         35  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            35  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    36  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 202130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER WILL INVADE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KRSL LATE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME MOIST AIR AND WITH SOME MINOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE SNOW AND MOIST GROUND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR...VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE EARLY HOURS ON SUNDAY. A LONG TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS AND PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. SO...RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. KRSL SHOULD ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF VISIBILITY
ISSUES...BUT THE OTHERS WILL NOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          36  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        36  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          35  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       35  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     37  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         35  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            35  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    36  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 202130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER WILL INVADE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KRSL LATE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME MOIST AIR AND WITH SOME MINOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE SNOW AND MOIST GROUND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR...VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE
DURING THE EARLY HOURS ON SUNDAY. A LONG TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS AND PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. SO...RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. KRSL SHOULD ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF VISIBILITY
ISSUES...BUT THE OTHERS WILL NOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          36  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        36  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          35  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       35  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     37  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         35  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            35  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    36  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 201750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER WILL INVADE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KRSL LATE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME MOIST AIR AND WITH SOME MINOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE SNOW AND MOIST GROUND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR...VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE DURING THE EARLY HOURS ON SUNDAY. A LONG TROUGH WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS AND PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. SO...RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. KRSL SHOULD ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF VISIBILITY
ISSUES...BUT THE OTHERS WILL NOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      48  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        47  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         50  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      50  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          47  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       47  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     48  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         46  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            45  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 201750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER WILL INVADE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KRSL LATE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME MOIST AIR AND WITH SOME MINOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE SNOW AND MOIST GROUND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR...VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE DURING THE EARLY HOURS ON SUNDAY. A LONG TROUGH WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS AND PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. SO...RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. KRSL SHOULD ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF VISIBILITY
ISSUES...BUT THE OTHERS WILL NOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      48  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        47  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         50  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      50  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          47  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       47  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     48  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         46  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            45  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 201133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      46  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          44  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        45  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         48  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      48  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          45  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         44  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            43  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 201133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      46  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          44  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        45  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         48  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      48  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          45  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         44  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            43  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 200901
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SE KS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WHILE
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRATUS...INCREASING CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      46  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          44  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        45  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         48  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      48  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          45  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         44  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            43  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 200901
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SE KS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WHILE
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRATUS...INCREASING CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      46  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          44  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        45  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         48  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      48  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          45  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         44  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            43  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 200522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE
OZARKS TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING TRAPPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF KS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS LIGHT SE-S FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALSO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRATUS
REMAINING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. LATEST NAM/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG...WHILE GFS
SHOWS SIGNS OF FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE. PLAN ON GOING WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER....WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SAT AND INTO SUN.  WARMUP WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN CENTRAL KS ON SAT...AS LEE TROUGH MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  SO AFTER SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCE CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYTIME ON SUN AS WELL...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT INCREASES AS IT MOVES ACROSS. SO
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER IA
AND NEB...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE...BUT
THIS COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DO NOT EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO LAST LONG...AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WED THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...SO WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME BOTH DAYS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS KS CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LESS
OF A SNOW THREAT BUT POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CENTRAL
KS FOR NOW...BUT A WARMER TREND MAY LEAD TO THIS BEING ALL RAIN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SE KS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WHILE
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRATUS...INCREASING CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  47  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  46  36  49 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          30  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        31  46  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  48  38  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         25  48  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      27  48  33  50 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          29  45  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       30  45  35  48 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  47  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         32  46  36  48 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            31  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  46  37  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 200522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE
OZARKS TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING TRAPPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF KS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS LIGHT SE-S FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALSO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRATUS
REMAINING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. LATEST NAM/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG...WHILE GFS
SHOWS SIGNS OF FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE. PLAN ON GOING WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER....WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SAT AND INTO SUN.  WARMUP WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN CENTRAL KS ON SAT...AS LEE TROUGH MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  SO AFTER SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCE CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYTIME ON SUN AS WELL...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT INCREASES AS IT MOVES ACROSS. SO
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER IA
AND NEB...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE...BUT
THIS COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DO NOT EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO LAST LONG...AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WED THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...SO WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME BOTH DAYS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS KS CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LESS
OF A SNOW THREAT BUT POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CENTRAL
KS FOR NOW...BUT A WARMER TREND MAY LEAD TO THIS BEING ALL RAIN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SE KS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WHILE
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRATUS...INCREASING CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  47  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  46  36  49 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          30  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        31  46  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  48  38  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         25  48  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      27  48  33  50 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          29  45  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       30  45  35  48 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  47  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         32  46  36  48 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            31  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  46  37  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 200001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE
OZARKS TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING TRAPPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF KS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS LIGHT SE-S FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALSO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRATUS
REMAINING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. LATEST NAM/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG...WHILE GFS
SHOWS SIGNS OF FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE. PLAN ON GOING WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER....WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SAT AND INTO SUN.  WARMUP WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN CENTRAL KS ON SAT...AS LEE TROUGH MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  SO AFTER SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCE CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYTIME ON SUN AS WELL...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT INCREASES AS IT MOVES ACROSS. SO
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER IA
AND NEB...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE...BUT
THIS COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DO NOT EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO LAST LONG...AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WED THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...SO WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME BOTH DAYS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS KS CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LESS
OF A SNOW THREAT BUT POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CENTRAL
KS FOR NOW...BUT A WARMER TREND MAY LEAD TO THIS BEING ALL RAIN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
WITH LOW CIGS & VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z ON SAT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FOG
MAY BECOME MORE DENSE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS STEER HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
REGION. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LIGHT SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  47  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      27  46  36  49 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          28  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        29  46  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  48  38  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         27  48  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      28  48  33  50 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          28  45  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  45  35  48 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     31  47  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         30  46  36  48 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            29  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    30  46  37  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 200001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE
OZARKS TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING TRAPPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF KS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS LIGHT SE-S FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALSO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRATUS
REMAINING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. LATEST NAM/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG...WHILE GFS
SHOWS SIGNS OF FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE. PLAN ON GOING WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER....WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SAT AND INTO SUN.  WARMUP WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN CENTRAL KS ON SAT...AS LEE TROUGH MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  SO AFTER SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCE CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYTIME ON SUN AS WELL...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT INCREASES AS IT MOVES ACROSS. SO
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER IA
AND NEB...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE...BUT
THIS COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DO NOT EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO LAST LONG...AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WED THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...SO WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME BOTH DAYS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS KS CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LESS
OF A SNOW THREAT BUT POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CENTRAL
KS FOR NOW...BUT A WARMER TREND MAY LEAD TO THIS BEING ALL RAIN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR
WITH LOW CIGS & VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z ON SAT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FOG
MAY BECOME MORE DENSE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS STEER HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
REGION. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LIGHT SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  47  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      27  46  36  49 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          28  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        29  46  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  48  38  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         27  48  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      28  48  33  50 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          28  45  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  45  35  48 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     31  47  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         30  46  36  48 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            29  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    30  46  37  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 192030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE
OZARKS TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING TRAPPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF KS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS LIGHT SE-S FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALSO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRATUS
REMAINING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. LATEST NAM/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG...WHILE GFS
SHOWS SIGNS OF FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE. PLAN ON GOING WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER....WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SAT AND INTO SUN.  WARMUP WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN CENTRAL KS ON SAT...AS LEE TROUGH MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  SO AFTER SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCE CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYTIME ON SUN AS WELL...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT INCREASES AS IT MOVES ACROSS. SO
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER IA
AND NEB...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE...BUT
THIS COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DO NOT EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO LAST LONG...AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WED THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...SO WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME BOTH DAYS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS KS CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LESS
OF A SNOW THREAT BUT POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CENTRAL
KS FOR NOW...BUT A WARMER TREND MAY LEAD TO THIS BEING ALL RAIN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW CEILINGS. LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CEILING HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY WITH SOME MIXING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  47  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      27  46  36  49 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          28  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        29  46  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  48  38  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         27  48  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      28  48  33  50 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          28  45  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  45  35  48 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     31  47  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         30  46  36  48 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            29  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    30  46  37  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 191741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILD DOWN.  CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS.
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW CEILINGS. LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CEILING HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY WITH SOME MIXING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 191741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILD DOWN.  CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS.
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW CEILINGS. LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CEILING HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY WITH SOME MIXING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 191120
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
520 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILDOWN. CIRROFORM CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 191120
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
520 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILDOWN. CIRROFORM CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 190840
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILDOWN. CIRROFORM CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         42  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 190840
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILDOWN. CIRROFORM CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         42  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 190529
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 190529
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 182349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR DZ/FZDZ BUT PATCHY
DZ WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 182349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR DZ/FZDZ BUT PATCHY
DZ WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 182121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 182121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DID RUN
WITH FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENCE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DID RUN
WITH FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENCE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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